Proceedings of The 6th International Conference on

Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials

June 21 -26,2000, Xian Jiaotong University, Xian, China

Method of Estimating the Remaining Life of the lOkV XLPE

Cable Operated 10 Years

Chen Jiqun Wang Shoutai

Shanghai BAO-Steel Corporation, Shanghai Jiaotong University,
Shanghai, China 201900 Shanghai, China 2000300

Abstract: A used XLPE cable was cut into more than ten sections as
samples in testing, so was a new one of XLPE. These samples of
each cable were divided into tow groups. A series of high-voltage
tests on samples were done one by one. The test voltage of each
group of samples was raised step by step until breakdown. It is
determined by the method of linear regression analysis that the
statistical distribution of breakdown voltages of each group of
samples follows Weibulls distribution. According to the ratio of
average breakdown voltages for the used and the new cable samples
in testing, the operating years, the ageing rate and the remaining life
of the used cable insulation are estimated in this paper.
Key words: Life-time index. Remaining life. Linear regression
analysis. Weibulls distribution
I. Introduction
The electrical supply system for the Cold-Rolling Plant of
the Bao-Sheel Corporation is 10 kV three-phase unearthened
system with arc suppression coils, where a grade of 8.7110
kV XPLE cables should be used. But an incorrect design of
using 6/10 kV XPLE cables (176 km) incurred cable
accidents 3 times in the past 19 years. In order to estimate the
remaining life of those cables, a remaining life experiment
was done in 1997.
n. Remaining life experiment
Its well known that the life-time of the XPLE cable for the new cable samples.
insulation can be expressed by the formula
uY=c (1)
where, U is the voltage applied to the cable, n is the life-
time index, t is the service time of the cable, and c is a
constant.
A series of high-voltage breakdown tests was carried out
for 18 used cable samples and 12 new of 8.7/10 kV grade
and quality like the formerly used.
Each sample is 4 meter long. Cable terminals were made
at both ends for each.
Each group of those used cables has 9 samples; that of
new being 6 samples.
Immerse the middle part of sample for about 300 cm in a
water tank before test.
During testing, raise the voltage step by step, and at each
step of volts keep the voltage respectively for I min./20 min.
test. The voltage ratio between adjacent steps is q, q=l.O6.
The initial test voltage for used cable samples is 30 kV and
that for the new ones 60 kV.
The rate of raising the voltage is 120 kV/min. The formula
(1) can be newritten as it follows. I
[Un+qnUn+q2nUn+. .....+ q i ~ l - l ) n U n ] ~l + qnukc
~ (2)
for the I-min. test.
.
[Un+qnUn+q2nUn+.....+qi~
- l ) n u n ] ~ 2 + q ~ nUn=C
(3)
for the 20-min. test, where
T I is the time kept for I-min. test at each step,
T, is the time kept for 20-min.test at each step,
pI is the number of steps up to breakdown through 1-min.
tests,
p2 is the number of steps up to breakdown through 20-min.
tests,
t, is the lasting time (<I min) at the last step of 1-min.
tests,
t, is the lasting time (<20 min) at the last step of 20-min.
tests.
In testing small samples the cumulative distribution
hnction is expressed as F(u)=(i-O.S)/n, where i is the order
of breakdown voltage and n the number of each grouping
tests. The calculated test data are shown in the following
tables: Table 1 (T=Imin.) and Table 2(T=20min.) for the
used cable samples; Table 3(T=Imin.) and Table 4(T=20min.)
U. Estimation of the used cables remaining life
1. The application of Weibulls distribution and linear
regression analysis.
With the linear regression analysis it is shown that in each
grouping tests the statistical distribution of breakdown
voltage follows the pattern of
(1) Weibulls distribution-
~ ( u ) 1=-e-W)/P
Its density function is
f(u)=(b/P)(p-6)b-le-id)P
Where, U is the breakdown voltage of cable sample, 6 is

0-7803-5459- 1/99/$10.00@1999IEEE
204
the position parameter, b is the shape parameter, and p is Let
the dimension parameter, Blnuo=A, Inln[l/l-F(u)]=yi, In u=xi.
Taking
Then
6=O,p=ubo ( uo is a constant. )
yi=bxi-A (4)
Then
F(u)= 1-e-("" ), And the calcuated lnu, using data from Tables 1-4, are
listed in Table 5 .
1/ 1-F(u)&e("/')*, The calculated In In [l/l-F(u)], using data of F(u) in
In In [I/]-F(u)]=blnu-blnu,,. Table1-4, are listed in Table 6 .
Tablel, The calculated test data for the used cable samples (T=lmin.)

Table 2. The calculated test data for the used cable samples (T=2Omin.)

Table 3. The calculated test data for the new cable samples (T=lmin.)
Order i 1 2 3 4 5 6
Breakdown Voltage, u(kV) 101.4 102.0 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5
t, (sec) 2 0 5 10 25 40
Steps, p, 9.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7
F(u) % 8.3 25.0 41.7 58.3 75.0 91.7

Qrder i 1 2 3 4 5 6
Breakdown Voltage, u(kV) 67.4 85.1 85.1 95.0 95.0 101.4
t, (sec) 12 4 9 7 11 3
Steps, p2 2.2 6.1 6.2 8.1 8.2 9.1
F(u) Yo 8.3 25.0 41.7 58.3 75 .O 91.7

1
Table 6.The calculated Ill In = Yi
1- F ( u )

205
 (2) Linear regression analysis.
The parameters b and A of a linear regression equation [(144.5127-9X4.00232)(14.5145-9X 0.54742)]1/2
y=bx-A =0.918
are defined as in the following Take the confidence region
1- a =0.95 and the degree of freedom is O=n-2=9-2=7.
b={ [ C x,y,-nx,y,]/[C x,-nx,]} (5) Find r from the Table
A=-y ,+bx, (6) For the critical value of sample correlation coefficient r ,
r o=0.666 and r>r,.
And the sample correlation coefficient r, which examines
Hence there is a remarkable linear dependence between x
the correlation between x, and y, ,is defined as and y, and the statistical distribution of the breakdown
r=[ X x,y,-nx,y,]/[(C x,-nxI2)(C y,-ny:)]I2 (7) voltages in Table 1 is shown to follow Weibulls.
(4) Examining the statistical distribution of breakdown
where, x,= C x,/n , yI= C y,ln, and n is the number of a voltage in Table 2.
grouping tests. As in (3), we have now
(3) Examining the statistical distribution of the breakdown
voltages in Table 1.
X, =3.8674, y, =-0.5474, C x2, =135.3039, =
Y2,
=14.5 148, C X,Y, =-16.4003.
Having figured out x,, y,, C x,, Cy, and C x,y, , using b =3.8285, A =15.3539
data in Tables 5-6 for I-min tests of used cable samples, The regression equation is
obtained
x,=4.0023, y,=-0.5974, C ~,~=144.5127,C y12=14.5148, y=3.8285~-15.3539 (9)
C x,Y,=-17.8585. Which is shown in Diagram 2.
Then referring to formula ( 5 ) r=0.927>0.666
b=( C x,y,-nx,y,)/( C xI2-nxl2)=(-l7.8585+9X 4.0023 X
0.5474)/( 144.5 127-9 X 4.00232)=5.3564
-.
,
I!

Referring to formula (6)

A=-y,+bx,=0.5474+5.3564 X 4.0023=2 1.9853.
Thus the regression equation is
~ ~ 5 . 3 5 6 41.9853
~-2 (8)
Which is shown in Diagram 1.
:: l3r

-A-*)
3.2
/ I

3.s 4.E 4 .t 5
I
41

IQ.(r
Diagram 2. Least squares line refered to equation (9)
There is a remarkable linear relationship between x and y,
and the statistical distribution of breakdown voltage in Table
2 is shown to follow Weibulls also.
( 5 ) Examining the statistical distribution of breakdown
voltage in Table 3.
-3 0 :I /I 4 G
I
1. 5 3.0
I
As in (3), we obtain
lnrr X, =4.6590, y, =-0.5336, C x2, =130.2418, X y2,
Diagram 1 . Least squares line referred to equation (8) =8.8490, C~,y,=-14.7683.
b =35.988, A =168.25
Referring to formula 7 The regression equation is
y=35.988~-168.25 (10)
Which is shown in Diagram 3.

206
 r=0.9778>0.814 ( r , )
There is a remarkable linear relationship between x and y,
and the statistical distribution of breakdown voltages is
shown to follow Weibulls.
2. Calculating the life-time index and the average
breakdown voltages of the 4 grouping tests.
(1) Calculating the life-time index.
t Based on formulas (2) and (3), the equation for the
approximate calculation of n can be expressed as

(a) Referring to Table 1 and 2, figure out the average

number of test voltage steps at breakdown in the grouping
tests for the used cable samples:
p,=10.31, p2=8, and n=[ln (20/1)]/[10.31-81 In 1.06]=22.26
- 3 0
2. 5 4 .o 4 5 5 0 (b) Referring to Table 3 and 4, figure out the average
11144 number of test voltage steps at breakdown in the grouping
Diagram 3. Least squares line referred to equation (IO) tests for the new cable samples:
r=0.8636 p,= 9.68, p2= 6.47, and n=[ln (20/1)]/[(9.68-6.473) In
Take the confidence region 1- a =0.95 and the degree of 1.06]= 16.02
freedom is 0=n-2=6-2=4. Find r from the Table For the
The life-time index of the new cable is smaller then that of
critical value of sample correlation coefficient r , r ,, =0.814 the used cable. This indicates that the quality of the new
and r>r, . Hence there is a remarkable dependence between x cable is better than that of the used cable.
and y, and the statistical distribution of breakdown voltage in (2) Calculating the average breakdown voltages of the 4
Table 3 is shown to follow Weibulls. grouping tests.
(6) Examining the statistical distribution of breakdown The density function of Weibulls distribution is expressed
voltage in Table 4. as
As in (3), we obtain
xi =4.4709, yi =-0.5336, C x2i =120.0361, C yZi
~8.8490, Cxiyi =-13.4779.
b =8.165, A =37.0385
The regression equation is
y=8.165~-37.0385
Which is shown in diagram 4.

Referring to 1 (I),
b = In uo= A, U,= d
Hence

- A
-
+1
U = e b r ( l -)
1.0 I
b
With the numerical values of A and B obtained in 1, find
-2 0 .
1 from the
the values of r(l+-1 r- function Table and
- b -
figure out U . The numerical values of b, A and U are
3-5- 1 0 C S i.0 listed in Table 7.
lnu The ratio of average breakdown voltages between the
Diagram 3. Least squares line referred to equation (1 1) used- and the new cable samples,

207
 Table 7. The average breakdown voltages of the 4 grouping tests
Order of testing L4 2 ti (kV.)
1st grouping tests of the used cable samples 5.3564 21.9853 55.87
2nd grouping tests of the used cable samples 3.8285 15.3539 49.88
1st grouping tests of the new cable samples 5.9980 168.2480 105.47
2nd grouping tests of the new cable samples 8.1650 37.0385 87.99

D=- %0.53 at T=lmin. breakdown strength of cable samples used ten years drops
105.47 about 50%. It would be really less for the new cable samples
of a better quality, have been employed in testing.
and ~ = 4 9 . 8 8 = 0 . 5 7 at T=20min.. It is expected in 10 years from 1997 that the breakdown
87.99 strength of the used cables would have a further drop of 50%
to a voltage of 27.94 kV (55.8712 kV)-24.94kV(49.88/2kV).
IV. Conclusion That is more than 4.1 times the operating voltage of the used
cables, 6.06 kV( 10.5/,6 kV); and in 2 d years from 1997, 2
A grade of 8.7110 kV cables were used in testing. Their
times. Thus the remaining life of the used cable from 1997 is
insulation layer is thicker than that of the original ones, and
estimated to be 10- years1 20- year as its lowedupper limit.
the quality better. As seen in section 111. 2., the average

208