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Predmet: Teorija eksperimentalnog istraivanja
SEMESTRALNI RAD
Studenti:
Zerina ustovi II-24/13 Predmetni asistent:
Aldin Avdi II-4/13 Dr. sc. Adnan Mustafi, vii asist.
Tuzla, jun 2017
Zadatak 1.
Primjenom viestruke linearne regresije prikazati matematski model zavisnosti ugla u ravni
smicanja pri obradi elika rezanjem (zavisno promjenljiva) od pokazatelja mehanikih osobina
obraivanih elika. Podaci za posmatrane pokazatelje (nezavisno promjenljive), kao i ugla u
ravni smicanja prikazani su u donjoj tabeli. Metodom izbora iz svih jednaina izabrati
regresionu jednainu koja najbolje opisuje date uslove.
Z Hvmax/Hvmin s n
70,8 1,661691542 4,062 1,888 13,1
76 1,18115942 1,422 1,613 31,7
19 1,617370892 1,523 2 30,1
34,4 1,306483301 1,523 1,67 30,1
69,7 1,309734513 4,316 1,535 12,4
68,6 1,416356877 2,539 1,452 20
67,5 1,767195767 3,148 1,706 16,5
62,8 1,533678756 6,194 2,144 8,8
66,4 1,472636816 2,132 1,094 23,1
68,6 1,629268293 4,569 1,835 11,7
42,2 1,403409091 5,483 1,585 9,88
51 2,118811881 5,382 1,781 10,1
60,3 1,380577428 6,093 2,117 8,94
59 2,018867925 2,132 1,149 23,1
52,4 1,472440945 6,093 1,691 8,94
Z Kontrakcija [%]
HVmax/HVmin Odnos maksimalno i minimalno izmjerene tvrdoe po Vickers-u [MPa]
s Koeficijent sabijanja strugotine
n Faktor deformacionog otvrdnjavanja
Ugao u ravni smicanja [o ]
Prvo se odreuje stepen znaajnosti (signifikantnosti) ulaznih parametara na izlaznu veliinu i
rangiranje prema znaajnosti je prikazano donjom tabelom.
Z Hvmax/Hvmin s n
Z 1
Hvmax/Hvmin -0,09259 1
s 0,121063 0,100951807 1
n -0,21662 -0,053828405 0,494404 1
-0,25968 -0,206667055 -0,95512 -0,35621 1
3 4 1 2
Na osnovu rezultata prikazanih u prethodnoj tabeli vidi se da najvei uticaj na ugao u ravni
smicanja ima koeficijent sabijanja strugotine s, a najmanji stepen uticaja ima odnos
maksimalne i minimalne izmjerene tvrdoe HVmax/HVmin.
Broj jednaina odreuje se na osnovu sljedeeg izraza:
4 4!
1 jednaina
4 4!4 4 !
4 4!
4 jednaine
3 3!4 3!
4 4!
6 jednaina
2 2!4 2 !
4 4!
4 jednaine
1 1!4 1!
Prvo e se analizirati svaka varijabla pojedinano, zatim po dvije varijable, pa po tri varijable i
na kraju svih varijabli zajedno i izabrati koja interakcija najbolje opisuje promjenu zavisne
veliine.
Redoslijed izvoenja je obrnut gornjem redoslijedu jednaina:
1. 4 jednaine (po jedna varijabla),
2. 6 jednaina (po dvije varijable),
3. 4 jednaine (po tri varijable),
4. 1 jednaina (sve etiri varijable).
=f(Z)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,259676
R Square 0,067431
Adjusted R Square -0,0043
Standard Error 8,478659
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 67,57395 67,57395 0,939994 0,349973
Residual 13 934,5395 71,88766
Total 14 1002,113
=f(HVmax/HVmin)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,206667
R Square 0,042711
Adjusted R Square -0,03093
Standard Error 8,590298
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 42,80154 42,80154 0,58002 0,459898
Residual 13 959,312 73,79323
Total 14 1002,113
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,95512
R Square 0,912254
Adjusted R Square 0,905504
Standard
Error 2,600766
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 914,1817 914,1817 135,1543 3,05E-08
Residual 13 87,93181 6,763986
Total 14 1002,113
=f(n)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,356207
R Square 0,126883
Adjusted R Square 0,059721
Standard
Error 8,203948
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 127,1516 127,1516 1,889191 0,192524
Residual 13 874,9619 67,30476
Total 14 1002,113
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,348022
R Square 0,121119
Adjusted R Square -0,02536
Standard Error 8,56708
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 121,3751 60,68756 0,826864 0,460872
Residual 12 880,7384 73,39487
Total 14 1002,113
Standard Upper Lower Upper
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95,0% 95,0%
Intercept 37,76405 16,93844 2,229488 0,045653 0,858358 74,66975 0,858358 74,66975
Z -0,15162 0,146539 -1,03468 0,321221 -0,4709 0,167661 -0,4709 0,167661
Hvmax/Hvmin -7,56934 8,840869 -0,85618 0,408672 -26,8319 11,69326 -26,8319 11,69326
=f(Z,s)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,96608
R Square 0,933311
Adjusted R Square 0,922197
Standard Error 2,359899
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 935,284 467,642 83,97051 8,8E-08
Residual 12 66,82946 5,569122
Total 14 1002,113
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,495912
R Square 0,245929
Adjusted R Square 0,12025
Standard Error 7,935494
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 246,4486 123,2243 1,956809 0,183854
Residual 12 755,6649 62,97207
Total 14 1002,113
Standard Upper Lower Upper
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95,0% 95,0%
Intercept 48,51006 15,95239 3,040927 0,010256 13,75278 83,26734 13,75278 83,26734
Z -0,19055 0,13844 -1,37639 0,193842 -0,49218 0,111088 -0,49218 0,111088
n -12,0215 7,132753 -1,68539 0,117719 -27,5624 3,519462 -27,5624 3,519462
=f(n, HVmax/HVmin)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,421943
R Square 0,178036
Adjusted R
Square 0,041042
Standard
Error 8,285034
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 178,4121 89,20605 1,299588 0,308402
Residual 12 823,7014 68,64178
Total 14 1002,113
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,961526
R Square 0,924533
Adjusted R Square 0,911955
Standard Error 2,510421
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 926,487 463,2435 73,50491 1,85E-07
Residual 12 75,62654 6,302212
Total 14 1002,113
=f(n, s)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,964399
R Square 0,930065
Adjusted R Square 0,918409
Standard Error 2,416653
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 932,0309 466,0155 79,79426 1,17E-07
Residual 12 70,08255 5,840213
Total 14 1002,113
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,970432
R Square 0,941739
Adjusted R Square 0,92585
Standard Error 2,303829
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 3 943,7296 314,5765 59,26877 4,46E-07
Residual 11 58,3839 5,307627
Total 14 1002,113
Standard Upper Lower Upper
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95,0% 95,0%
Intercept 33,13416 4,821664 6,871936 2,69E-05 22,52175 43,74658 22,52175 43,74658
Z -0,06195 0,041728 -1,48463 0,165724 -0,15379 0,029892 -0,15379 0,029892
n 3,09706 2,455192 1,261433 0,233247 -2,30678 8,500902 -2,30678 8,500902
s -4,64516 0,405272 -11,4618 1,86E-07 -5,53716 -3,75316 -5,53716 -3,75316
=f(n, s, HVmax/HVmin)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,969115
R Square 0,939184
Adjusted R Square 0,922598
Standard Error 2,353809
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 3 941,1689 313,723 56,62445 5,64E-07
Residual 11 60,94457 5,540416
Total 14 1002,113
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,974383
R Square 0,949423
Adjusted R Square 0,935629
Standard Error 2,146544
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 3 951,4293 317,1431 68,82966 2,06E-07
Residual 11 50,68417 4,607652
Total 14 1002,113
Standard Upper Lower Upper
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95,0% 95,0%
Intercept 44,93897 4,277583 10,50569 4,51E-07 35,52407 54,35387 35,52407 54,35387
Z -0,08618 0,037039 -2,32664 0,040106 -0,1677 -0,00465 -0,1677 -0,00465
Hvmax/Hvmin -4,17349 2,229546 -1,8719 0,088031 -9,08069 0,733706 -9,08069 0,733706
s -4,30242 0,320552 -13,4219 3,65E-08 -5,00795 -3,59688 -5,00795 -3,59688
=f(Z, HVmax/HVmin, n)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,56208
R Square 0,315934
Adjusted R Square 0,12937
Standard Error 7,894255
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 3 316,6015 105,5338 1,693438 0,225716
Residual 11 685,512 62,31927
Total 14 1002,113
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,977042
R Square 0,95461
Adjusted R Square 0,936454
Standard Error 2,13274
Observations 15
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 4 956,6277 239,1569 52,57837 1,11E-06
Residual 10 45,4858 4,54858
Total 14 1002,113
Vidi se da jedino funkcija sa sve etiri varijable ima koeficijent determinacije preko 0,95 (95%)
to znai da je jedino taj model prihvatljiv kako bi adekvatno opisao funkciju promjene ugla u
ravni smicanja i ta jednaina bi glasila:
35
=40,21382-0,07207*Z-3,78112*HVmax/HVmin-
30
4,52723*s+2,462917*n
y = 0,2709x + 3,6867
25 R = 0,9112
20
15
10
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Zadatak 2.
Medicinski istraiva eli saznati da li starosna dob mukaraca utie na visinu holesterola u krvi.
Istraiva eksperimentalnim putem mjeri holesterol za po 10 mukaraca u razliitim starosnim dobima.
Potrebno je provjeriti znaajnost starosti u odnosu na visinu holesterola, provjeriti razlike izmeu
srednjih vrijednosti, razliku varijansi metodom analize varijanse te provjeriti nultu hipotezu.
Eksperimentalni rezultati ispitivanja prikazani su u donjoj tabeli:
= ( )2 = 129120,67
=1
Anova: Single
Factor
SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
Grupa A 10 2468 246,8 3012,622
Grupa B 10 2567 256,7 2018,9
Grupa C 10 2385 238,5 9130,722
ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Between Groups 1660,467 2 830,2333 0,175869 0,839681 3,354131
Within Groups 127460,2 27 4720,748
Total 129120,7 29
Zadatak 3.
Odrediti regresionu jednainu koja opisuje proces hladne deformacije pri emu su dobivene sljedee
eksperimentalne vrijednosti:
xi yi
6 68
9 67
11 65
13 53
22 44
26 40
28 37
33 34
35 32
Potrebno je odrediti :
1.
a) Dijagram rasipanja
60
40 yj[N/mm2]
20
0 Linear
(yj[N/mm2])
0 10 20 30 40
xj[mm]
b) Koeficijent korelacije
( ) ( )
=
( )2 ( )2
571341
= = 0,995
239088 1378432
c) Parametri regresije
= ( ( + ))2
=1
() + 2 + = 0
+ + = 0
() = 7701
2 = 4665
= 440
= 183
Rjeavanjem dobivenog sistema jednaina, dobijaju se vrijednosti a i b:
= 75,7
= 1,32
Dakle, regresioni model ima oblik:
= +
2.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,977326
R Square 0,955166
Adjusted R
Square 0,948761
Standard
Error 3,319946
Observations 9
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 1643,735 1643,735 149,1316 5,65E-06
Residual 7 77,15431 11,02204
Total 8 1720,889
Predicted Standard
Observation yj[N/mm2] Residuals Residuals Percentile yj[N/mm2]
1 67,80261 0,197387 0,06356 5,555556 32
2 63,84393 3,156073 1,016277 16,66667 34
3 61,2048 3,795198 1,222079 27,77778 37
4 58,56568 -5,56568 -1,79219 38,88889 40
5 46,68962 -2,68962 -0,86608 50 44
6 41,41137 -1,41137 -0,45447 61,11111 53
7 38,77225 -1,77225 -0,57068 72,22222 65
8 32,17444 1,825565 0,587844 83,33333 67
9 29,53531 2,464689 0,793646 94,44444 68
=1 ( )2 1644,8256
= = = 14,33
1 8
Tablina vrijednost Fierovog testa iznosi = 5,59, model je adekvatan, jer je raunska
vrijednost vea od tabline.
(ym-
ym- (ym- ymsr)*(y- ((y-ysr)-(ym-
xi yi ym ymsr ymsr)**2 y-ysr (y-ysr)**2 ysr) ymsr))**2
6 68 67,78 67,78 4594,1 19,111 365,2 87799 2368,66
9 67 63,82 63,82 4073 18,111 328 73766 2089,3
11 65 61,18 61,18 3743 16,111 259,6 60304 2031,2
13 53 58,54 58,54 3426,9 4,1111 16,9 14088 2962,5
-
22 44 46,66 46,66 2177,2 4,8889 23,9 -10644 2657,29
-
26 40 41,38 41,38 1712,3 8,8889 79,01 -15220 2526,96
-
28 37 38,74 38,74 1500,8 11,889 141,3 -17843 2563,28
-
33 34 32,14 32,14 1033 14,889 221,7 -15380 2211,72
-
35 32 29,5 29,5 870,25 16,889 285,2 -14698 2151,93
183 440 439,74 439,74 23131 3E-14 1721 162173 21562,9
60
40
y = -1,3196x + 75,72 Predicted
20
R = 1 yj[N/mm2]
0
0 20 40 Linear (Predicted
yj[N/mm2])
xj[mm]
xj[mm] Residual Plot
5
Residuals
0
0 10 20 30 40
-5
-10
xj[mm]
60
40
20
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Sample Percentile
Poto je raunska vrijednost Fierovog testa vea od tabline, kao i vrijednost t-testa, model se
moe smatra adekvatnim. Takoer, proraun koeficijenta korelacije i determinacije pokazuju
da postoji odreena linearna veze meu podacima. Zbog toga, model se prihvata i nema potrebe
za opisivanjem promjene prilikom deformacije nekim od modela vieg reda.