Presented by:

ARMS Reliability Engineers

Hi, this is Bill Keeter President of ARMS Reliability Engineers USA. Welcome
to the first in our six part series on Reliability Improvement Methods. In this
first presentation we will introduce Weibull concepts and discuss the importance
of understanding the Weibull shapes of failures when developing maintenance
strategies.
 Background

The Weibull Distribution was invented in 1937 by

Waloddi Weibull when comparing mortality rates of
different population groups.

High Probability Steady state Probability Increasing Probability

of death when young of death due to random events of death when past the
wear out age

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

We are all familiar with the bathtub curve that describes different mortality rates in
humans. Humans that live through the rigors of childbirth and the immediate period
after it can expect to live a relatively long period where death is caused by random
events such as accidents or disease. As we become older our resistance to disease
and accident decreases and death rates begin to increase until we reach the point
where we die of old age. In 1937 Waloddi Weibull developed a formula that
describes this failure distribution.
 Background

He invented a formula that could describe the different

shaped graphs in each of the three zones.

T


R(T ) = e
(2 Parameter Weibull)

R(T) = Reliability at Time T

T = Time considered
= Characteri stic Life
= Shape Parameter
e = 2.71828 (the base for natural logs)
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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

Weibulls formula, shown here, describes the bathtub curve in each of its regions.
The formula gives the expected reliability for a given mission time T. Eta, the
characteristic life, tells us the point at which we could expect 63.2% of the
population under study to have failed. Beta, the Shape Parameter, tells us where we
are on the curve, and gives us an indication of the failure mechanisms that are
present. Then of course, we have that pesky little e that seems to work his way into
every formula.
 The Weibull Distribution

Nolan and Heap discovered use for Weibulls work when they wrote the
paper that was the birth place of Reliability Centered Maintenance.
They found that traditional maintenance policies were based on
assumption that items wore out at some age limit.
Whereas their review of 10 years of failures in civil aviation revealed most
occurred according to <1.
Their work promoted age exploration and modeling behaviour.

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

In the 1960s airlines realized that the current maintenance practice of periodic
overhauls was very expensive and dangerous. A maintenance steering group was
formed to determine better and safer ways to maintain aircraft.
In 1978 Stanley Nolan and Howard Heap published the seminal work that was the
birth place of RCM. Their review of aircraft failure data showed that the traditional
view of failure mechanisms was invalid.
 Failure Behaviour
Prob. of fail
Traditional view of Maintenance

Age
Wear out
Maintain before wear out
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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

The traditional view of equipment failures was that there would be a long period of
either no or low rate random failures followed by some predictable wear out phase.
This led maintainers to believe that if they could just replace or overhaul the
equipment before it reached its wear out point they could reduce unexpected
failures.
 Failure Behaviour
Prob. of fail
Trouble is most things dont wear out

Infant mortality

Age
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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

Our practical experience tells us something quite different. We know that

sometimes despite our best efforts equipment will fail with little or no warning, or
equipment will fail immediately after being overhauled. What Nolan and Heap
discovered was that a large portion of aircraft components displayed infant
mortality.
 Failure Behaviour
Prob. of fail
Fixed time maintenance = increased
risk at increased cost!

Age

7 Maint.
Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

When fixed time maintenance is used for components with infant mortality failure
mechanisms we actually introduce failures. These additional failures increase
business risk and cost.
It is important that we understand the failure mechanism we are dealing with when
setting maintenance strategies so that we apply the correct strategy to components at
the correct time.
 Failure Behaviour
Reliability Centered Maintenance recognizes 6 different
combinations of the Weibull curves.

Type A Bathtub (4%)

Type B Worst old (2%)

Type C Slow ageing (5%)

Type D Best new (7%)

Type E Constant (14%)

Type F Worst new (68%)

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

RCM recognizes these six combinations of Weibull shapes.

Type A -The bathtub curve represents components and systems that display all three
types of failures throughout their lives such as electromechanical systems.
Type B -The worst old or wear out curve represents components that have a long
failure free or low random failure rate followed by wear out. Components such as
tracks, liners, impellers, crusher jaws and reciprocating pumps typically display this
failure mechanism
Type C The gradually increasing failure rate curve represents components such as
pipes, refractory, tires, structures, and turbine engines.
Type D Rapidly increasing failure rate followed by a long period of either random
or gradually increasing failures. Hydraulic and Pneumatic components typically
display this failure mechanism.
Type E Random failures through expected life. Ball bearings installed and
maintained properly typically display this failure mechanism.
Type F - High initial failure rate followed by a long period of no or low random
failures. Electronics, highly complex equipment, and advanced control systems
typically display this failure mechanism.
 The Weibull Distribution
The most commonly used distribution for life studies
Typically viewed on Failure Rate vs. Time plot (Hazard
Function)

Failure
Rate
Eta1 Eta2 Eta3

Beta<1 Beta=1 Beta>1

Time
Gamma1 Gamma2 Gamma3

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

The Weibull distribution is widely used in life studies because it can describe each
phase of the bathtub plot which is typically a failure rate vs. time plot. The plot is
characterized by three parameters, eta, beta, and gamma.
The beginning of each region is described by gamma. The shape of the region is
described by beta, and the characteristic life or the point at which we can expect
63.2% of the population to have failed is described by eta.
 The Weibull Distribution
Implies quality problems or insufficient burn in. If
associated with maintenance overhaul may indicate
<1 procedure problems or poor commissioning
practices.

Random failures or failures independent of time in

=1 service. Causes typically are random events such
as lightning, human error or variable conditions.

Wear out failures at a definite or predictable end of

life. Typically age related due to service conditions
>1 such as corrosion, wear or fatigue cracking.

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

Beta, or the shape parameter, drives the type of maintenance activities that are
appropriate.
A beta value less than one tells us we have some sort of quality issue to deal with.
This usually means that we will need to do root cause failure analysis to discover
the reasons behind the infant failures. Meanwhile, we still have to maintain the item
so we will need to take special measures to lessen the impact of the failures.
Typical steps are to have a second spare nearby in case the first fails, or to place
additional staff on hand immediately after a major overhaul.
A beta value of one tells us that regardless of time in service the component may
fail. Items with a beta of one typically lend themselves to some sort of condition
monitoring. If the failure rate is unacceptable we will need to do root cause failure
analysis to determine how to lower the failure rate.
Beta values greater than one represent a predictable wear out. This failure
mechanism typically lends itself to time based overhauls or replacements.
 The Weibull Distribution
Often this will indicate an early onset of failure of
the rest of the population of components.

1<<4

Ideally this behaviour occurs outside the design

life i.e. majority of items have reached their wear
out age and its time for replacement.
>4 If this occurs before the design life it is an
indication of under-design or underestimate of
the stress levels in service.

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

Beta values between one and four give us a warning sign that more failures may be
on the way in the general population, and beta values greater than four tell us that
the majority of the items in the population have reached their wear out age.
Betas greater than four are our friend unless they occur much earlier in the design
life than was originally anticipated. Early wear out requires root cause failure
analysis to determine and eliminate the cause.
 The Weibull Distribution

What will a Weibull for a complex piece of

machinery look like?

=1 In complex machinery the Weibulls tend to

cancel each other out.

What use is Weibull analysis for complex

machinery?

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

Complex pieces of machinery will typically display a beta of one because the
various failure mechanisms within the components tend to cancel each other out.
What might be the appropriate strategy if the failure rate is higher than we desire?
 The Weibull Distribution

Target a dominant mechanism!

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

There are many failure mechanisms present in a complex piece of machinery. What
we want to do is drill down into the components to find the dominant failure
mechanism. One by one we can improve the strategy for each component and
improve overall performance.
 The Weibull Distribution
Why Important?
One of the most widely used distributions
Highly flexible
Best fits many real world applications:
Weibull distribution represents the life of components and parts
whereas the Exponential distribution represents the life of
assemblies and systems
Mechanical components: ball bearings, motors, fatigue failure of
some simple structures
Failures where chemical actions are a predominant mechanism

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

The Weibull distribution is widely used because of its extreme flexibility in

describing failure mechanisms and its ease of use. It is possible to make reasonable
decisions about a maintenance strategy based on a small amount of data. Modern
Weibull software is extremely easy to use and understand. With a small amount of
training and the right software you can make improved maintenance strategy
decisions.
 Advantages of Weibull Analysis

Primary advantage of Weibull is the ability by the

analyst to use few data points to make failure forecasts.
This means that it is possible to use data as the first
few failures emerge and decide appropriate action
before more failure data is generated.
This gives the reliability engineer the tool to model
failure behaviour, make decisions on future
performance levels, determine warranty periods, and
confirm B10 lives.

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

Statistical analysts typically want large amounts of data in order to make inferences
about population behavior. Since a data point represents a failure we dont want to
gather large amounts of data. Our job as maintainers is to prevent data.
The main advantage of Weibull is that we can make sound maintenance decisions
based on small amounts of data. It is possible to make a reasonable decision based
on one failure point and good engineering judgment about the failure mechanism
present.
 Advantages of Weibull Analysis

Bad data or dirty data can also provide valuable

information
Indications of mixed failure modes can be
recognised by a relatively inexperienced
practitioner
Information regarding items that have not failed in
service can also be valuable to making reliability
predictions (suspensions)

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

The data doesnt have to be perfect for us to make reasonably sound decisions. The
dirty data may be telling us that there are mixed failure modes, or that some change
has been made. With just a little experience an analyst can tell whether the data is
dirty, and what he needs to do to clean it up.
It is important to include information about items that havent failed. Leaving them
out can lead us to an extremely pessimistic outlook on the behavior of the rest of the
population.
 Advantages of Weibull Analysis
The Weibull formula provides the Reliability analysts with
the capability to play what if?
if?.
What if time at temperature was significant?
What if the next replacement interval was 4
years?
If failures occur in service, a prediction of the
number of failures in the next period of time can
be made.
What if we use a component with superior
reliability?

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

The Weibull formula provides us with the ability to make reliability predictions
based on a number of factors. The analyst can look at changes in operating
conditions, maintenance strategies, and component design to determine their impact
on future performance.
 SUMMARY

Tolearn more about Weibull Analysis and other

Reliability Engineering Tools, Software, and
Training visit our Web Site at www.armsus.com

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Asset Reliability and Maintenance Specialists

Thank you for viewing and listening to this presentation. I hope you found it
informative and thought provoking. In our next installment we will work with some
real life Weibull data and discuss the appropriate strategies to deal with the failures
shown by the data.