Ingeniera Industrial

ISSN: 1025-9929
fondo_ed@ulima.edu.pe
Universidad de Lima
Per

Power Porto, George

El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono
Ingeniera Industrial, nm. 27, 2009, pp. 101-122
Universidad de Lima
Lima, Per

Disponible en: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=337428493007

Cmo citar el artculo

Nmero completo
Sistema de Informacin Cientfica
Ms informacin del artculo Red de Revistas Cientficas de Amrica Latina, el Caribe, Espaa y Portugal
Pgina de la revista en redalyc.org Proyecto acadmico sin fines de lucro, desarrollado bajo la iniciativa de acceso abierto
Globalwarmingandcarbon
emissions
 Globalwarmingandcarbon
emissions
George Power Porto

Ingeniera Industrial n. 27, 2009, ISSN 1025-9929, pp. 101-122

O

Summary:astheconsequencesofclimatechangeare
morealarming,andscientistswarnthatthe"pointof
no return" is to sooner of dear, it is necessary to
disseminatebroadmindtopic.Thisarticleattemptsto
synthesize the available information to focus on
strategies that contribute to lessen or avoid the risk
that is already causing global warming: floods,
droughts, ice melting, etc. The vast majority of the
communitiesinternationalscientificagreesthatisthe
time to apply viable alternatives. Key words: global
warming/greenhousegases/carbon/carbonstorage
andcapture

Global warning and carbon emissions

ABSTRACT: As the consequences of climatic change are more alarming
and scientists warn about the point of no return being closer than
previouslyestimated,itbecomesnecessarytodivulgewidelythesubject.
Thepresentarticletriestosummarizeabundantavailableinformation
andtofocusonsolutionstrategiesWhichcontributetolessenoravoid
therisksthatglobalwarmingisalreadycausing:flooddrought,thaw,
etc.Themayorityoftheinternationalscientificcommunityagreesthat
nowisthemomenttoapplyviablealternatives..

Keywords:globalwarming/greenhousegases/carbonemissions/
carboncaptureandstorage

[101]
 George Power Porto

1.Introduction:
theglobalwarminghasbeenresearchanddiscussionlongago.
Severalnaturalexplanationsofthephenomenonhavebeensought
butnotpassedscientificscopesince,exceptforsomeisolatedcasesof
years with exceptionalnally cold or warm climate, never have had
linked the issue to causes anthropogenic. In the past there has
alwaysbeenageneralconcernformattersdeemedapotentialthreat
to our civilization as we know it, and in more than one case
encouraged by the media of communication, even to situations of
masshysteria.Issuessuchasplagues,epidemics,alieninvasions,the
coldwarandthedangerofanuclearholocaust,crisisofpetroleum,
terrorism,environmentalpollution,andsoon,joinedinrecenttimes
globalwarming,climatechangeanditsconsequences.
While some of these issues were a real threat and constant,
howevertheyhavehadafavorabledevelopment.Thecoldwarand
the danger of a nuclear holocaust caused by the superpotences
companiescametoanend.Inthecaseoftheenvironment,hasbeen
createdgradualsensitivityandsocialconscienceandpoliticalonthe
subject,sothattodayitwouldbeunthinkabletocommitmanyofthe
mistakesofthepast.

But as technological advances allow a greater depth of study of natural

phenomena and their interactions, this same technology makes it possible
to measure and detect causes never before considered, which propose new
challenges to technological advancement. For sample it is enough to
consider the example of the combustion reaction. Initially it was only of
interest to study the main reaction, the energy produced and the most
important gases involved, such as oxygen from the air and products such as
dioxide and carbon monoxide, as well as water vapor. As more sensitive
measuring instruments were developed it was detected that the nitrogen,
previously considered as inert, in small amounts forms various oxides that
can be dangerous; the presence of unborn hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide,
soot, nano particles, and so on could also be measured. Today, the
combustion gases of a diesel engine must be purified by various physical
and chemical processes before being disposed of to the atmosphere.
 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

In this sense, the issue of global warming has also evolved with
technological developments and greater understanding of the phenomenon.
As early as 1979, the First World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World
Climate Conference expressed concern that "[...] the continued expansion
of human activities on land can cause significant climate change in large
regions and even globally. "1 This conference was followed by other major
events that eventually led to the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. Since then, interest and concern growing.
Some milestones, such as the Conference on Environment and
Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol
in 1997, and the 13th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC) in Bali in 2007 are
indicative of the importance of the issue in the global political arena.
The four Assessment Reports published by the IPCC in 1990, 1995,
2001 and 2007,
each more complex and voluminous than the previous one,
demonstrate the progress
in scientific knowledge on climate change and its consequences. In
2007, the IPCC
was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for this work.2

The present article attempts to briefly describe the phenomenon-no of

climate change,
the controversy over the main causes, the effects it would have for the
world
population, as well as some options for solution.

2. GLOBAL WARMING

In the discussion on global warming and its consequences on climate

change, one must first ask whether it is true that the Earth is warming,
and if so, at what rate. As for the first
1 IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.16Yearsofcientificassesmentinsup
portoftheclimateconvention,2004.
2 Pachauri,R.K.DiscursoalrecibirelPremioNobeldelaPaz2007otorgadoalIPCC.

Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 103

 George Power Porto

it should be clarified that it is no longer a matter of theory but of conclusions

based on the systematic observation of the average temperature of the
planet (average of many measurements of air temperature near the surface
and oceans). The results of the last hundred years confirm, without a doubt,
that the average temperature has increased by an approximate 0.1 C per
decade. Normally, the records indicate the anomaly or deviation of the
temperature of an average value recorded between the years 1951 and
1980 (this average value is very close to 14 C). Figure 1 shows the mean
temperature and temperature anomaly for the data available since 1880.
The thin line with markers refers to the mean annual temperature and the
coarse line to the moving average of five years. It is evident that the
increase in temperature is more pronounced in the decades to come and
the predictions about the increase of temperature in the future vary
enormously according to the applied models. Figure 2 shows various
models of projections up to the year 2100. Note that increases of the order
of 2 to 5 C are expected, in the most pessimistic case. Projections of
global warming are continually revised and the scenarios foreseen with each
additional degree of temperature increase show increasingly serious
impacts on climate, sea level and biodiversity, to the point that they could
seriously threaten our own existence on the planet. This theme has been
treated with a lot of drama but with encouraging proposals for a solution in
documentaries such as An Inconvenient Truth, 3 The Hour Eleven and Six
Degrees That Could Change the World.5 In particular, after the devastating
Katrina in 2005, greater awareness of the problem

3 Guggenheim,Davis(dir.).Unaverdadincmoda.Presentador:AlGore.Paramount,2006.
4 Conners,NadiayLeila(dirs.).Lahoraonce.Presentador:LeonardoDiCaprio.Warner,2007.
5 Bowman,Ron.Seisgradosquepodrancambiarelmundo.Presentador:AlecBaldwin.
NationalGeographic,2007.

104 Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009

 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

Figure 1
Variation of global mean temperature since 1880
15.0 +1.0

14.8 +0.8

14.6 +0.6

14.4 +0.4
Media mvil 5 aos

Temp Media anual

Anomala de temperatura (C)

14.2 +0.2
eratur
a
media 14.0 +0.0

(C)
13.8 0.2

13.6 0.4

13.4 0.6

13.2 0.8

13.0 1.0
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Fuente: NASA. Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2008 [en lnea]. <http://
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/>.
Elaboracinpropia.

Figure 2
Different projections of global warming

Fuente:http://naturematters.files.wordpress.com,2006.

Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 105

 George Power Porto

SiIf there is no doubt about global warming, there is only a majority

consensus on its causes in the scientific community. The IPCC
concludes that the largest share of global temperature increase
since the second half of the 20th century is "very probably due to
the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentration." 6
Natural phenomena such as (Figure 3) and major volcanic eruptions
(Figure 4) probably had a small warming effect from preindustrial
times to 1950, and cooling since 1950. These basic conclusions have
been supported by at least thirty socie- and academies of science,
including all the national scientific academies of the major
industrialized countries.

On the other hand, a small but significant minority7,8 has

manifested its disagreement with this explanation of global warming,
and urged, in open letters to the US president and the Secretary
General of the UN, not to ratify the agreements on the reduction of
emissions of greenhouse gases derived from the Kyoto Protocol.

6 IPCC.Summaryforpolicymakers,enSolomon,S.;Qin,D.;Manning,M.;Chen,Z.;
Marquis,M.;Averyt,K.B.;Tignor,M.yH.L.Miller(eds.).Climatechange2007:The
physicalsciencebasis.Contributionofworkinggroupitothefourthassessmentreport
oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2007.
7 Dontfight,adapt.Weshouldgiveupfutileattemptstocombatclimatechange .Carta
abiertaalSecretarioGeneraldelasNacionesUnidas.PublicadaenNationalPost,el12
dediciembredel2007.
8 Robinson,ArthurB.;Robinson,N.B.yWillieSoon.Environmentaleffectsofincreased
atmosphericcarbondioxide.JournalofAmericanPhysiciansandSurgeons 12,2007.
Oregon: Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, Cave Junction [en lnea].
<http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm>.
106 Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009
 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

Figure 3
Variations in sunspot activity, cycle of 11 years.

Fuente:ObservatorioespacialSOHO[enlnea].<http://apod.nasa.gov>.

Figure 4
Eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, and its effect

in the global temperature.

+0.4
+0.3
Cambio de temperatura (C)
+0.2
+0.1
0
0.1 Erupcin del
0.2 Monte Pinatubo
0.3
0.4
0.5
1990 1991 1992

Fuente:<http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu>.

Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 107

 George Power Porto

2.1Thegreenhouseeffect

Explainedverysimply,thiseffect,termedassuchbyitsanalogywithagreenhouse
whereplantsaregrown,istheaccumulationoftheradiantenergyprovidedbythe
suninaclosedenclosurethatallowsradiationtoenterbutfewlossestoExterior.
Inthisway,thetemperatureinsidethegreenhouseincreasesandtheplantscan
growinmorefavorableconditionsthanintheopen.

TheEarth'satmosphereiscomposedmainlyofdiatomicandmonatomicgases,such
asoxygen(O2),nitrogen(N2)andargon(Ar),whichcanbesaidtobetransparent
toinfraredthermalradiation.ie,theyallowbothenergyinputand output.The
othergases,presentinasmallerquantity,aremostlypolyatomic,suchascarbon
dioxide(CO2),metano(CH4),nitrousoxide(N2O),ozone(O3)and,naturally,of
water(H2O),invarying amounts asairhumidityand clouds.Thesepolyatomic
gasescanabsorbandreemitinfraredradiationproducingthesocalledgreenhouse
effectbyretainingintheatmospheresomeoftheenergyprovidedbythesun.

Muchhasbeensaidanddisseminatedaboutthegreenhouseeffect,tothepointof
having a totally negative connotation, but forget to mention that this effect is
indispensableforlifeonEarth.Withoutthiseffect,thetemperatureontheEarth's
surface would be much lower and life as we know it probably would not have
developed.Thebiggestgreenhousegasiswatervapor!Viewedfromouterspace,
our planet's atmosphere is covered by more than 60% clouds. Without this
protectiveshieldofincidentradiationaswellastrappedintheatmosphere,the
earth'sclimatewouldbeveryhostileandwithextremetemperatures.
Apart from water vapor, which is subject to the hydrological cycle, the main
greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and some organic
halogencompoundssuchaschlorofluorocarbons(CFCs).Figure5showsthetrends
intheconcentrationoffivemajorgreenhousegases.Itcanbeobservedthatthe
concentrationofCO2,CH4andN2Ohasincreasedconstantlyinthelastdecades,
whichcausesanimbalanceintheenergeticbalanceoftheatmosphere.Thisdew
balancegeneratestheknowngreenhouseeffectandglobalwarmingasitsmain
directconsequence.
 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

It is also observed that CO2 and CH4 concentrations vary cyclically.

This is because these gases are involved in many biological
processes and depend on the incidence of solar radiation. During
the day, and especially in the summer of the northern hemisphere,
plants perform photosynthesis by taking advantage of solar energy
and con-pouring CO2 from the air and water into cellulose and
carbohydrates that plants require for their growth, producing
oxygen. In this period, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
decreases.

During the night, especially in the boreal winter, plants, like animals
and humans, breathe, consuming oxygen and generating CO2. As
for CH4, this results from anaerobic decomposition processes of
plants and animals, processes that have been carried out on Earth
for millions of years and have finally generated fossil fuel (coal, oil,
natural gas) deposits, those that are exploited at an increasing rate;
in this way, the process of capturing CO2 from the atmosphere is
being reversed since the plants began to exist on Earth.

Figure 5
rends in the concentration of greenhouse gases

Units: ppm = 10-6, ppb = 10-9, ppt = 10-12

Fuente:NOOAEarthSystemResearchLaboratory. TheNOAAAnnualGreenhouseIndex
(AGGI).Colorado,2005[enlnea].<http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/>.

Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 109

 George Power Porto

Since the beginning of the industrial era, the consumption of fossil fuels
has steadily increased, but in the last decades the increase has been
more pronounced. Current carbon emissions in the form of CO2 are
around 8 billion tonnes per year with a tendency to double in the next
50 years. These emissions come mainly from three sources, namely: 1)
the production of energy by combustion of coal, oil and natural gas; (2)
the cement industry, and (3) flaring, ie the combustion of surplus gases
from oil extraction and refining. Figure 6 shows the evolution of carbon
emissions since 1870, as well as the equivalent emissions per capita
since 1950.

Figura 6

Anthropogenic carbon emissions since 1870 (1 t C = 3.66 t CO2)

de carbono al ao

cpita
Millones de toneladas

Toneladas de carbono per

Fuente:OakRidgeNationalLaboratory.CarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter.
Tennessee,2007[enlnea].<http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ndps/ndp006.html>.
Elaboracinpropia.
 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

2.2Relationshipbetweencarbonemissionsandwarming

ItisenoughtoplacethegraphsofFigures1,5and6onthesametime
scale and it will not be difficult to conclude that there is very likely a
relationshipbetweencarbonemissions,increasedconcentrationofCO2in
theatmosphereandwarmingglobal.Thisismostevidentwhenexamining
datafromsamplesofAntarcticicedrilling,annualtreegrowthrings,rock
radioactivity,etc.,whichallowtocomparethefluctuationsofCO2inthe
atmosphereandtemperatureformorethan500thousandyears.Thereis
alwaysacorrelationbetweentheconcentrationofCO2intheatmosphere
andthetemperature,butthemaximumneverexceeded270ppmofCO2.
Currently,theproaverageconcentrationis385ppm,withthepossibility
ofovercomingthe"noreturnpoint"(estimatedbetween450and500ppm)
in the nextdecade atthecurrent rate ofgrowth. Sincethen, scientists
predict irreversible damage to the ecosystem with a probable
disappearanceofmorethan30%oflivingspeciesandmillionsofaffected
humans,especiallyinthepoorestcountries.

Criticsemphaticallypointoutthatthesepredictionsarewrongandthat
thereisnoscientificbasisforthetheorythatglobalwarmingiscausedby
human activity, and it is further clarified that the increase in CO2
concentration in the atmosphere is the result of the increase of
temperature, and the other way around. It is also argued that the
temperatureofairintheArcticandtheSargassoSeaandsealevelhave
steadilyincreasedafterthesocalled"smalliceage"about300yearsago,
longbeforewasindustrial,andthereforecannotbecorrelatedwiththe
burningoffossilfuelsbutratherwithsolaractivity(Figure7).ExcessCO2
emissionsareabsorbedbyseas,landandespeciallybyplants.Theforests
oftemperateandcoldregionsdoindeedshowahigherrateofgrowthin
thelastdecades,sothatCO2shouldnotbethoughtofasapollutant,but
ratherasa"gift"fromtheindustrialagetotofavorone'sownlifeasfood
ofplantsandtheseinturnoftheanimalsandhumanbeings.
 George Power Porto

Figura 7

Examples of Hypotheses Against Global Warming by human activity. Examples of

Hypotheses Against Global Warming by human activity .

20

16

12

8
8

4 6

4
0
2

0
4
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 200

1374
2

1 1372
Desviacin de la temperatura
del aire rtico (C)

0
1370

1
1368

2 8

0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Fuente:OregonInstituteofScienceandMedicine,2007.

112 Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009

 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

The controversial conclusion of these scientists is that we should not

producelessbutmoreenergyifeconomicgrowthmustbekeptonparwith
thatofthepopulation.Forthetimebeing,fossilandnuclearfuelsarethe
only economically viable source of energy, and no effort should be
expendedtodevelopcostlyandnoncompetitivetechnologiesinviewofa
supposed capac ity between carbon emissions and increase of the
temperatura,whichisgoingtooccurinanyway.Rather,effortsshouldbe
madetoalleviatetheeffectsofclimatechangeandtotakeadvantageof
some advantageous changes, such as the possibility of populating
inhospitablelandareassuchasthetundraandpermanentlyopeningthe
passageinthenorthwestoftheArcticOcean,whichwouldgreatlyreduce
theroutesofcommercialnavigation.Itshouldnotbeforgotteneitherthat
carbondioxideisnottheonlygreenhousegas,andthatothers,suchas
methane,andespecially thegasesoftheindustrialage,haveagreater
potential for global warming (GWP). English) because, despite being
present in a lower concentration, they have a much longer life in the
atmosphere.Table1showsthispotentialforseveralgasespresentinthe
atmosphere.Clearly,eveniftheemissionsofalltheseindustrialgaseswill
ceaseinaninstant,itwouldbemanyyearsbeforetheywouldcompletely
disappearfromtheatmosphereandthegreenhouseeffectwouldpersist.
Table 1
Time of life in the atmosphere (years) and heating potential

(GWP) of several greenhouse gases

Gas Tiempo de vida GWP a 100 aos GWP a 20 aos GWP a 500 aos
atmosfrico

CO2 50 200 1 1 1
CH4 12 3 21 556 6,5
N2 O 120 310 280 170
HFC-23 264 11.700 9.100 9.800
HFC-125 32,6 2.800 4.600 920
HFC-134a 14,6 1.300 3.400 420
HFC-143a 48,3 3.800 5.000 1.400
HFC-152a 1,5 140 460 42

(contina)
Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 113
 George Power Porto

(continuacin)

Gas Tiempo de vida GWP a 100 aos GWP a 20 aos GWP a 500 aos
atmosfrico

HFC-227ea 36,5 2.900 4.300 950

HFC-236fa 209 6.300 5.100 4.700
HFC-4310mee 17,1 1.300 3.000 400
CF4 50.000 6.500 4.400 10.000
C2 F6 10.000 9.200 6.200 14.000
C F
4 10 2.600 7.000 4.800 10.100
C F
6 14 3.200 7.400 5.000 10.700
SF6 3.200 23.900 16.300 34.900

Nota:ElGWPsedefinecomolafuerzaradianteacumulada,integradadeefectosdirectose
indirectosenunperiododetiempo,delaemisindeunaunidaddemasadeungasrelativo
aungasdereferencia(CO2).
Fuente:IPCC,1996.

It would be lengthy to detail here more of the arguments for and

against, but one can not fail to notice a certain simplicity of the
conclusions of the detractors. While it is true that at higher
temperatures more carbon is emitted into the atmosphere of
biomass and large summers or carbon deposits such as the sea, the
greenhouse effect and the vicious circle between these two factors.
The increase in the growth rate of the plants in the last decades
obviously is not only due to the increase in the concentration of
atmospheric CO2 but also to the greater technification of agriculture
with the use of fertilizers and pesticides, satellites, and so on. Nor
can one simply label theories of the work of the IPCC and the
complexity achieved in its fourth evaluation report (AR4), with a
volume of more than one thousand pages, with a description of
models, tables, graphs and projects, in counter-position with some
articles and editorials published by detractors and their adherents.
The reduction of carbon emissions has already been accepted as a
strategy by the industrialized nations, and only the necessary steps
are necessary to achieve this end.

3. SOLUTION STRATEGIES
 In 2007, the prestigious National Geographic Magazine devoted
several articles to the topic of global warming and carbon emissions.

114 Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009

 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

Even the Reader's Digest magazine published a short summary on the

subject.Film,televisionandpoliticsfigurestrytoimprovetheirecological
image by showing that they drive "green" vehicles that only run on
recycled oil or are hybrids (fuel and electricity). Unfortunately, it is
simplistic to focus the problem on a single solution (hydrogen, ethanol,
etc.)andforgetthattheactualenergydemandoftoday'sworldcannever
bemetbyanyofthesetechnologies.Feasibleproposalsbasedonexisting
technologiesarerequiredandcanbeimprovedandimplementedoverthe
medium term to achieve stabilization at current levels or the total
reductionofcarbonemissionsatpreindustriallevelsinaboutfiftyyears.
AftertheKyotoProtocol,Environmentmagazinedevotedaspecialissueto
thetopicandoneofthearticlesisparticularlynoteworthy,presentingthe
resultsofagroupofresearchersfromPrincetonUniversity,NewJersey.
Farfromspeculatingonpossiblescenariosofglobalwarming,Article12is
dedicated specifically to analyze the technologies available to reduce
carbonemissions.Theproblemisattackedverysimply.First,thetrendin
globalanthropogeniccarbonemissions isanalyzed, whichiscurrently 8
billiontonnesofcarbonperyear(GtC/a).Fiftyyearsagothisvaluewasin
lessthanhalfandfromheretoanotherfiftyyearsadoublingisexpected
(figure 8a shows the 2004 data). If no action is taken, emissions will
continue to increase to threefold in fifty years. In order to reduce
emissions,researchershavedividedthegoalinto"stabilizationwedges".
Each wedge implies adopting in the space of fifty years a technology
capable of reducing emissions by 1 GtC / a. In order to construct the
"stabilizationtriangle"(figure8b),thatis,toarriveatthesamelevelin
fiftyyears.

9 Appenzeller,TimTheBigThaw.NationalGeographicMagazine,juliodel2007.
10 McKibben,Bill..CarbonsNewMath.NationalGeographicMagazine,octubredel2007.
11 Bourne,JoelK.,Jr.Biofuels:GreenDreams.NationalGeographicMagazine,octubredel2007.
12 Socolow,Robert;Hotinski,Roberta;Greenblatt,JefferyB.yStephenPacala.Solving
theclimateproblemTechnologiesAvailabletoCurbCO 2 Emissions. Environment,
vol.46,nm.10,pp.819,2004.
 George Power Porto

of emissions than the current level, eight wedges or slices are

required (in the article by Socolow et al., seven are considered).
More stabilization wedges would be required to further reduce
emissions and perhaps reach the levels of the 1950s or a net
emission level of zero.

Figure 8a
Historical Carbon Emissions and Two Possible Future
Scenarios

Hacia la
triplicacin
14 actual

Emisiones de carbono (GtC/a) la

de

Tringulo de
estabilizacin
7 Emisiones
Evitar la
histricas Tendencia duplicacin
constante

1954 2004 2054

"Stabilization wedges" for the reduction of emissions.

14 7 cuas
se requieren para
Emisiones de carbono construir el tringulo
(GtC/a) de estabilizacin.
7 actual

tendencia
la

de

Tringulo de
estabilizacin
1 cua
evita la emisin de mil
millones de toneladas
1 cua de carbono para 2054.

Tendencia constante

2004 2054

Fuente:Socolow,R.;Hotinski,R.;Greenblatt,J.B.yS.Pacala.Op.cit.

116 Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009

 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

The technologies available to achieve stabilization wedges are

summarized in Table 2. Some of these solutions are:

More efficient vehicles.- There are one billion light vehicles in the
world, a number that tends to double in the next fifty years. For a
route of 15,000 km / year and a consumption of 50 km / gal, the
equivalent emissions in fifty years would be 2 GtC / a. An increase in
efficiency to 100 km / gal (possible with current technology) would
mean emissions of only 1 GtC / a, which would achieve a
stabilization wedge.

Reduction of the use of vehicles. - Similar to the previous case, but

the vehicles cover only 7,500 km / year, the difference must be
public transportation based on renewable energies. Result 1 GtC / a
less, ie another stabilization wedge.
Efficient buildings and housing.- Improve forms of isolation and use
of energy; that heating and air conditioning systems be more
effective and better designed; use sole-res panels; remove all
incandescent bulbs and replace them with bulbs. Result: one less
wedge of the commercial sector and another one of the residential
sector.

More efficient power plants. The estimated electricity production in

fifty years is 13,000 TWh / a. Current emissions are 232 gC / kWh,
with 40% efficiency, equivalent to 3 GtC / a. An increase in efficiency
to 60% (eg combined cycle plants) means emissions of 2 GtC / a.

Replacement of coal by natural gas in power plants. - Current

conditions: 2.8 Gt of coal (70.7% C), 1,400 GW of installed capacity
and 10,800 TWh of generation. Equivalent emissions of 1.98 GtC /
year. Energy equivalent in natural gas: 1.3 Gt (75% C), emissions
0.98 GtC / year.

Nuclear energy.- Another wedge is derived from the tripling of

nuclear power production capacity (351 GW in 1999). The growth of
nuclear installed capacity has been less than projected due to
problems of supply, waste disposal and technology transfer.

Wind power and solar.- The increase in wind and solar energy
production in 100 TWh / year over a period of fifty years represents
a wedge each. Technology is changing

Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 117

 George Power Porto

constantly and there are already 5 MW wind turbines and 30 MW

solar (photovoltaic and thermal) plants.

Fuel from biomass. At least one additional wedge is the possible

replacement of fossil fuels with biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, biogas).
Energy efficiency levels vary widely (Table 3) and it is important to
avoid competition with food production.

The authors detail, with calculation examples, other solutions, noting

that some of them, such as wind and photovoltaic energy, are not
yet commercially competitive, but with appropriate incentives and
policies (eg Regenerative Energies of Germany) may become so.
Opponents and lobbyists in the energy industry are obviously critical
of squandering huge economic resources, which could be used to
alleviate the effects of climate change, hunger and disease.

Other proposals come from the Nobel-winning scientist, Daniel

Kammen. In the six-episode television special called Ecpolis -
Ciudad del Futuro, 13 investigates visionary technological solutions
to the challenges of future megacities, such as food production,
access to drinking water, energy, management waste and transport.
The solutions were analyzed from the point of view of technical and
economic feasibility, as well as the real energy impact and the real
reduction of emissions ("carbon footprint"). When analyzing various
alternatives and trying to choose the best solutions in each case, it is
remarkable to see how complex all the factors involved in
greenhouse gas emissions are.
13Kammen,Daniel.EcopolisCityoftheFuture.DiscoveryChannel,2008
 Table 2
Summary of available technologies to reduce carbon emissions

Tecnologa Electricidad Combustible Calor Reserva

1. Vehculos eficientes X
2. Reduccin del uso de vehculos X
3. Edificios eficientes X X X
4. Plantas de energa ms eficientes X
5. Energa a partir de gas natural X
6. Captura de CO2 en planta X
7. Energa nuclear X
8. Energa elica X
9. Energa solar X
10. Captura de CO2 en planta de H2 X
11. Captura de CO2 en planta de
combustibles sintticos X
12. H2 a partir de energa elica X
13. Combustible de biomasa X
14. Reduccin de deforestacin X
15. Explotacin con conservacin X

Fuente:Socolow,R.;Hotinski,R.;Greenblatt,J.B.yS.Pacala.Solvingtheclimateproblem
TechnologiesAvailabletoCurbCO2Emissions.Environment,Vol.46,nm.10,2004.

Table 3
Comparison of energy efficiency of biofuels

Tipo de combustible Unidades de energa obtenible

por cada unidad de energa gastada

Etanol a partir de maz (EEUU) 1,3

Etanol a partir de caa de azcar (Brasil) 8
Biodisel a partir de colza (Alemania) 2,5
Etanol a partir de celulosa (EEUU, todava en desarrollo) 2 a 36

Fuente:NationalGeographicMagazine,2007.

4. CONCLUSIONS

The consequences of global warming in the immediate future will be

quite severe, with severe climate changes, thawing, shortages,
floods, and probably millions of affected humans, especially in
countries with economic capacity

Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 119

 George Power Porto

Limited. The environment has shown some capacity to cushion these

changes, but it is feared that in the coming decades the "point of no
return" will be reached, from which any measure will be too late.

Although a large group of scientists oppose the theory of global

warming caused by man, the limitation of climate models and
ecosystems, and uncertainty in pre dictions, the vast majority of the
scientific community agrees that something must be done now.
Recent energy and financial crises can be taken as a respite for the
environment in order to adopt measures and policies in line with
sustainable growth. Carbon certificates marketed from the Kyoto
Protocol are a viable alternative for the development of green
projects in developing countries.

The adoption of cleaner, more energy-efficient and self-sustaining

technologies has economic advantages, apart from any theory about
the causes of global warming. As the world's population grows,
energy demand in the next few years can not be satisfied with fossil
fuels alone, and it will require a number of alternative sources that,
to be viable, must now be developed.
 El calentamiento global y las emisiones de carbono

BIOGRAPHY:
Aitkin,Donetal.Dontfight,adapt.Weshouldgiveupfutileattempts
tocombatclimatechange.CartaabiertaalSecretarioGeneralde
lasNacionesUnidas.NationalPost,12dediciembredel2007.
Appenzeller, Tim. The big thaw. National Geographic Magazine.
Washington,DC:NationalGeographicSociety,juliodel2007.
Baldwin, Alec. Six degrees could change the world. Director: Ron
Bowman.NationalGeographic,2007.
Bourne,J.K.Biofuels:Greendreams.NationalGeographicMagazine.
Washington,DC:NationalGeographicSociety,octubredel2007.

DiCaprio, Leonardo. La hora once. Documental. Directoras: Nadia

ConnersyLeilaConnersPetersen.Warner,2007.
Gore, Al. Una verdad incmoda. Documental. Director: Davis
Guggenheim.Paramount,2006.
Kammen,D.Ecopolis:Cityofthefuture.Programaespecialdetelevisin.
DiscoveryChannel,2008.
IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 16 years of
scientific assessment in support of the climate convention.
Diciembre del 2004 [en lnea]. <http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/10th
anniversary/anniversarybrochure.pdf>.
McKibben,Bill.Carbonsnewmath.NationalGeographicMagazine.
Washington,DC:NationalGeographicSociety,octubredel2007.
NASA.GoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies.NuevaYork,2008[enlnea].
<http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/>.
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. The NOAA Annual
GreenhouseIndex(AGGI).Boulder,Colorado,2005[enlnea].
<http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/>.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center. Tennessee: Oak Ridge, 2007 [en lnea].
<http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ndps/ndp006.html>.
Pachauri, R. K. Presidente del Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change(IPCC).DiscursoderecepcindelPremioNobeldelaPaz.
Oslo, 10 de diciembre del 2007 [en lnea]. <http://nobelprize.
org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/ipcclecture_en.html>.
Ingeniera Industrial n.O 27, 2009 121
George Power Porto

Robinson,A.B.;Robinson,N.B.yW.Soon.EnvironmentalEffects
of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Journal of
American Physicians and Surgeons 12. Oregon: Oregon
Institute of Science and Medicine, Cave Junction, 2007 [en
lnea].<http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm>.
th
Robinson, Noah. The global warming myth. 11 Annual
Gilder/Forbes Telecosm Conference. Seattle: Discovery
Institute,2007[enlnea].<http://www.discovery.org/v/30>.
Socolow,R.;Hotinski,R.;Greenblatt,J.B.yS.Pacala.Solvingthe
climate problem: Technologies available to curb CO2
emissions. Environment. Vol. 46, nm. 10. Washington, DC:
HeldrefPublications,2004.
Solomon,S.;Qin,D.;Manning,M.;Chen,Z.;Marquis,M.;Averyt,K.
B.;Tignor,M.yH.L.Miller(eds.).IPCC,2007:Summaryfor
Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The physical science
basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
AssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimate
Change.NuevaYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,2007.
122