Poisson distribution

In situations when n is large and p is small the binomial distribution

assumes a limiting form known as the Poisson distribution
The Poisson random variable arises when we can count number of
occurrences of an event but cannot count the number of trials made
examples include
number of accidents on a road , arrivals at an emergency room,
number of defective items in a batch of items, number of goals
scored in a football match
A r.v X is said to have a Poisson distribution with parameter m > 0
if p(x) = e-m.mx/x!, for x = 0, 1, . . .
m= parameter and it can take any positive value. If a discrete
random variable x is distributed in this way then x~Po(m)
Example: If x~Po(3.5) find (a) P(X=0) (b) P(X=4) (c) P(X 2)
(d)P(X>1)

MU-MSS 1
 QN
Suppose the number of typographical errors on a
single page of your book has a Poisson distribution
with parameter m = 1/2. Calculate the probability
that there is at least one error on this page.

MU-MSS 2
 QN-SOLN

Solution.
Letting X denote the number of errors on a single
page, we have

P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0) = 1 e0.5 = 0.395

MU-MSS 3
 Expectation AND Variance

Mean:E(x) = = Xi P (Xi)
i=1
In Poisson distribution, = m (try to show this)
Variance: 2 = m, (try to show this)
Standard Deviation = m
Note: e 2.71828

MU-MSS 4
 Example
A random variable x follows a Poisson distribution with standard
deviation of 3.Find (a) () (b) P(X<4)

MU-MSS 5
 QN
A random variable x follows a Poisson distribution ,X~Po(m) and
P(X=0)= 0.2019.Find the value of m

MU-MSS 6
 Using Poisson distribution as an
approximation to the Binomial
A binomial distribution with parameter p and n can be approximated
by poisson distribution with parameter m if
(i) n is very large(> 50 say)
(ii) p is small (< 0.1 say)

The approximation gets better as n approach to infinity and p

approach to zero
= =
Thus =

MU-MSS 7
 Using Poisson distribution as an
approximation to the Binomial ..

Example.
Suppose that the probability that an item produced by a certain
machine will be defective is 0.1. Find the probability that a sample of
of 10 items will contain at most 1 defective item.

Solution.
Using the binomial distribution, the desired probability is
P(X 1) = p(0) + p(1) =10C0 (0.1)0(0.9)10 +10C1(0.1)1(0.9)9 =
0.7361
Using Poisson approximation, we have m= np = 1
e1 +1. e1 0.7358
which is close to the exact answer.

MU-MSS 8
 QN
Example.
Suppose that the probability that an individual suffering from
meningitis is 0.001. Determine the probability that out of 2000
individuals
(a) Exactly 3 (b) More than 2 will suffer from meningitis

MU-MSS 9
 QN-ANS
By Binomial
(a) P(X=3)=0.1805 (b) P(X>2)= 0.3233

By Poisson

(a) P(X=3)= 0.180447 b) P(X>2)= 0.3233

MU-MSS 10
 Geometric distribution

MU-MSS 11
 Geometric distribution
Suppose instead of sampling a Bernoulli experiment of a fixed present number of times, we sample
only until a specified number of success we obtained, the required number of trials is then random
variable which we are going to consider in geometric distribution.

Consider the first case of sampling until a success is first observed. Let x be the number of trials
required to achieve the first success. Then the possible values of x are 1,2,3,4, The event X x
is observed if and only if the sequence of results consists of x 1 failure followed by a success. Thus
P X x 1 p p , x 1,2,3,... where p is the probability of success.
x 1

MU-MSS 12
 Geometric distribution
Therefore a random variable x has a geometric distribution if and only if its probability function is

given by f x p P X x 1 p p , x 1,2,3,...
x 1

EXPECTED VALUE IN GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

It can be shown that E x

1
p

VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION IN GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

q 1 p
It can be shown that V x 2
2 and Standard deviation
p p

1 p
SDx V x Ex Ex 2

p2

MU-MSS 13
 EXAMPLE

The probability that a target is destroyed on any shot is 0.5.What is

the probability that it would be destroyed on 6th attempt.

MU-MSS 14
Hypergeometric Distribution
 Hypergeometric Distribution
Suppose that we have a box with N balls in it; of these m are yellow and others
are brown.

Then k balls are drawn from the box without replacement and of these X are
observed to be yellow.

X is a random variable following hypergeometric distribution

What is the probability of observing X=6 yellow balls?

N=20
m=n=10

draw k=10 X=6

balls
MU-MSS 16
 Hypergeometric Distribution

N=20, m=n=k=10
Yellow Brown

0.30
Balls drawn X k X k

P(X)

0.15
Remained in box mX nk+X N-k
m n N

0.00
2 4 6 8 10

m n

x k-x N! x! (m-x)! (k-x)! (n-k+x)!
P(X = x) = N =
k! (N-k)! m! n!

k

MU-MSS 17
 Hypergeometric Distribution

If x has hypergeometric distribution, we denote it as

x ~ Hyper N , M , n or x Hyper N , M , n

EXPECTED VALUE IN GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

It can be shown that E x np

nM
N

VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION IN GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

nM N M N n
It can be shown that V x
N 2 N 1

MU-MSS 18
 Hypergeometric example

Let x denote the number of defective articles in a random selection of 3 from a lot which include 2
defective and 8 good ones. Write the probability function of the random variable x .

MU-MSS 19
 Hypergeometric example-solution

This is hypergeometric distribution, thus

N 10 (2 defective, 8 good)
n 3 (Selection of 3)
M 2 (Our success is to choose defective)
x 0,1,2

Since x ~ Hyper N , M , n then

M N M

x n x
f x n, N , M P X x
N

n

MU-MSS 20
 Hypergeometric example-solution

Therefore the probability function of the random variable x is

2 8

x 3 x
f x n, N , M P X x for x 0,1,2
10

n

MU-MSS 21
 Continuous Distributions

Contents.
1. Uniform Distribution
2.Exponential Distribution
3.Normal Distribution

MU-MSS 22
 Introduction
RECALL: The continuous rv arises in situations when
the population (or possible outcomes) are continuous.
Example.
Observe the lifetime of a light bulb, then
S = {x, 0 x < }
Let the variable of interest, X, be observed lifetime of the
light bulb then relevant events
would be {X 100}, {X 1000}, or {1000 X 2000}.
The relevant question is to find the probability of each
these events.
Important. For any continuous probability density
function (pdf) the area under the curve is equal to 1.
MU-MSS 23
 Uniform Distribution
In some random experiments, a random variable
can assume any value in a interval of finite length.
If the probability that a random variable will take a
value in sub-interval is proportional to the length of
the sub-interval, then the random variable is said
to have a uniform distribution.

MU-MSS 24
 Uniform Distribution

We can use this idea to develop the probability density function of a random variable x . Suppose
that x is uniformly distributed over the interval a, b . If c, d a, b , then the statement that the
probability is proportional to the length of the sub-interval means that Pc x d k d c where
k is constant of proportionality.

That is

a c d b

Since the interval a, b is the entire sample, then Pa x b k b a 1 thus k

1
ba
d c
Therefore Pc x d k d c
ba

MU-MSS 25
 Uniform Distribution

From above we can obtain the distribution function F x as

xa
F x P X x Pa X x for a, x a, b
ba
d F x
Thus, from f x then f x
1
dx ba

1
for x a, b
Therefore the probability density function of a random variable x is f x b a
0 otherwise

When x has uniform distribution we write x ~ U a, b

MU-MSS 26
 Uniform Distribution
Therefore a random variable x is said to have a uniform distribution if and only if its probability
1
, a xb
density function is given by f x b a
0 , otherwise

EXPECTED VALUE IN UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

ab
It can be shown that E x
2

VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION IN UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

It can be shown that V x b a 2 and

1
12

Standard deviation SDx V x Ex E x

2 1
b a 2 b a
12 12

MU-MSS 27
 Uniform Distribution
Example
Given x ~ U 0,1 write down its probability density function

SOLUTION
Given x ~ U 0,1

1
, a xb
f x b a
0 , otherwise

1 , 0 x 1
Thus f x
0 , otherwise

MU-MSS 28
 Exponential Distribution

A random variable x has an exponential distribution and it is referred to as an exponential

random variable if and only if its probability density function is given by

1 x
e , x 0 and 0
P X x f x
0 , otherwise

MU-MSS 29
 Exponential Distribution

1
If we let then probability density function can be written as

e x , x 0 and 0
f x
0 , otherwise

When x has exponential distribution we write x ~ Exp or x ~ Exp

MU-MSS 30
 Exponential Distribution
Show that x is a random variable

Useful results

(i) < =

(ii) > = ( ) =

It follows that the cumulative distribution function F(X) is given

by F(X) = < = for x

MU-MSS 31
 Example
= where x

MU-MSS 32
 Exponential Distribution

EXPECTED VALUE IN UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

It can be shown that E x

VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION IN UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

It can be shown that V x 2 and

Standard deviation SDx V x Ex E x 2

2

MU-MSS 33
 Exponential Distribution

Example
A manufacturer of electronic equipment has found by experience that his equipment lasts on every
two years without repairing and that the time before the breakdown follows an exponential
distribution. If he guarantees his equipment to last 1 year, what proportion of his customer will be
eligible for some adjustment because of failure before 1 year?

MU-MSS 34
 Exponential Distribution

SOLUTION
Since 2 (average) and x ~ Exp

1 x
e , x 0 and 0
From P X x f x
0
, otherwise

1 2x
e , x0
Thus P X x 2
0
, otherwise

We need to find Px 1 or Px 1

MU-MSS 35
 Exponential Distribution
SOLUTION CONT
x 1 x
Thus Px 1 Px 1 e 2 dx
1
x 0
2
1
2x
= e
0
1

= e e 0 2

=1-0.607
Px 1 Px 1 0.393

MU-MSS 36
 Normal Distribution
A crv X is said to have a Normal pdf with parameters
and if
Formula:
f(x) =1/2{ e(x)2/22 } ; < x < ,
Properties
Mean: E[X] = - < < ;
Variance: V (X) = 2 0 < <
Graph: Bell shaped.
Area under graph = 1.

MU-MSS 37
 Properties of Normal curve
Graph: Bell shaped.
Area under graph = 1.
The curve has one maximum point at x=
As x then f(x)0
The maximum value of f(x) occurs at x= and is
1
given by f(x)= 2
2

There are points of inflection at x= and +

MU-MSS 38
Properties of a Normal Distribution..

x
The mean, median, and mode are equal

Bell shaped and is symmetric about the mean

The total area that lies under the curve is one or 100%

As the curve extends farther and farther away from the

MU-MSS mean, it gets closer and closer to the x-axis but never touches it. 39
 Standard Normal Distribution
Standard Normal.
A normally distributed (bell shaped) random
variable with = 0 and = 1 is said to have the
standard normal distribution. It is denoted by the
letter Z.
pdf of Z:
f(z) =1/2 ez2/2 ; < z < ,
Tabulated Values.
Values of P(0 Z z) are tabulated in standard
normal tables
Critical Values: z of the standard normal
distribution are given by P(Z z) =
which is in the tail of the distribution.

MU-MSS 40
 Standardizing a normal r.v.:

Standardizing a normal r.v.:

Z-score:
Z =( X X ) / X
OR (simply)
Z = ( X )/
Conversely,
X = + Z .

MU-MSS 41
Probabilities and Normal Distributions
If a random variable, x is normally distributed, the probability that x
will fall within an interval is equal to the area under the curve in the
interval.
IQ scores are normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a
standard deviation of 15. Find the probability that a person selected
at random will have an IQ score less than 115.

100 115
To find the area in this interval, first find the standard
score equivalent to x = 115.
Probabilities and Normal Distributions
Normal Distribution

Find P(x < 115).

100 115

SAME
Standard Normal
SAME

Distribution

Find P(z < 1).

0 1

P(z < 1) = 0.8413, so P(x <115) = 0.8413

 Example
Example
If X is a normal rv with parameters = 3 and 2 = 9,
find (i) P(2 < X < 5),(ii) P(X >0), and (iii) P(X >9).
Solution
(i) P(2 < X < 5) = P(0.33 < Z < 0.67) = .3779.
(ii) P(X >0) = P(Z > 1) = P(Z < 1) = .8413.
(iii) P(X >9) = P(Z > 2.0) = 0.5 0.4772 = .0228
Exercise
Refer to the above example, find P(X <3).

MU-MSS 44
 Example
Example
If X is a normal rv with parameters = 3 and 2 = 9,
find (i) P(2 < X < 5),(ii) P(X >0), and (iii) P(X >9).

MU-MSS 45
 More Examples on Normal Table
Examples.
(i) P(0 Z 1) = 0.3413
(ii) P(1 Z 1) =0.6826
(iii) P(2 Z 2) = 0.9544
(iv) P(3 Z 3) = 0.9974
Examples.
Find 0 such that
(i) P(Z >0 ) = 0.10; 0 = 1.28.
(ii) P(Z > 0 ) = 0.05; 0 = 1.645.
(iii) P(Z > 0 ) = 0.025; 0 = 1.96.
(iv) P(Z >0 ) = 0.01; 0 = 2.33.
(v) P(Z > 0 ) = 0.005; 0 = 2.58.
(vi) P(Z 0 ) = 0.10, 0.05,0 .025, 0.01, 0.005. (Exercise)
MU-MSS 46
 More examples (try them)
1. Monthly utility bills in a certain city are normally distributed
with a mean of $100 and a standard deviation of $12. A utility
bill is randomly selected. Find the probability it is between $80
and $115.

2. A Statistics exam is given to 500 students. The scores have a

normal distribution with a mean of 78 and a standard
deviation of 5. How many students have scores above 70?
 Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution .
When and how to use the normal approximation:
1. Large n, i.e. np 5 and np(1 p) 5.
2. The approximation can be improved using correction factors.
Example.
Let X be the number of times that a fair coin, flipped 40, lands
heads.
(i) Find the probability that X = 20.
(ii) Find P(10 X 20). Use the normal approximation.
Solution
Note that np = 20 and np(1 p) = 10.
P(X = 20) = P(19.5< X < 20.5)
= P([19.5 20]/10<[X 20/]10<[20.5 20]/10)
P(0.16 < Z < 0.16) = .1272.
The exact result is
P(X = 20) =40C20(0.5)20(0.5)20 = .1268

MU-MSS 48
END OF TOPIC THREE
THANKS FOR LISTENING