Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2005
1 Sales Growth
Stress
Base
Optimistic
2 COGS margin
Stress
Base
Optimistic
8 Capex as a % of sales
Stress
Base
Optimistic
8% 8% 8%
10% 9% 9% 9% 4.5% 5% 7% 7.0% 7.0%
7% 7% 7%
8% 8% 8%
12% 16% 17% 10% 9% 8.1% 8% 8%
8% 8% 8%
-55% 3% 3%
-38% 297% 16% -79% 84% -53% 5% 5%
-51% 7% 7%
3% 3% 3%
6.0% 4.8% 5.2% 4.6% 5.4% 5.4% 2.4% 2% 2%
2% 2% 2%
3% 2% 1%
9% 0% 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% 2.6% 2.9% 1.5% 1%
3% 2% 1%
13% 11% 8% 8% 8%
15% 13% 10% 10% 10% 2%
17% 15% 12% 12% 12%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 1%
7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 0%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2%
7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2008E
Input
Operating expense as a % to The average operating expense to sales ratio is taken as the
sales base.
Fixed asset growth Fixed asset growth is expected to increase slightly in 2008
Tax The newly reduced tax rate of 27.5% has been kept constant.
2009E
Base Stress Optimistic
Projected to decline in the initial years and move up close to Base + 2% Base -2%
the industry average.
This is expected to gradually increase in the long run to Base +0% Base -0%
match the industry average.
The ratio is expected to come down but remain above the Base+5% Base+5%
industry average.
Dividend 21 3 3
Balance sheet item
Fixed Assets 198.1 176.9
Capex 103 0
Net working capital 443.7 475.7
BVPS 0.8
2 2 2 0
Balance sheet item
Fixed Assets 168 152 767 759 776 1247 4409
Capex 17 9 25 62 81 82 83
Net working capital 430 598 1359 2249 2518 2377 5026
0.8 -0.5 -2.2 -1.9 -1.5
1.94
(0.98)
Income Statement
2009
Sales 1203
COGS 990
Gross Profit 213
Operating Expenses 108
EBITDA 105
Depreciation 26
Other Income 80
EBIT 159
Interest Expense 63
Profit Before Tax & WPPF 96
WPPF 5
PBT 92
Income Tax 5
Deferred Tax
PAT 87.0
0.62 0.76 0.88 1.02 1.16 EPS 0.1
3
Balance sheet item
4342 4063 3813 3592 3397 Fixed Assets 168
64 73 80 88 97 Capex 17
5780 6531 7184 7903 8693 Net working capital 430
Projection - Stress
2010 2011 2012 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E
1029 2410 2405 2752 3080 2987 6315 7134 7843
783 1742 1750 2076 2356 2285 4831 5457 6000
246 668 656 676 724 702 1484 1676 1843
91 108 109 207 232 225 475 537 590
156 560 546 469 492 477 1009 1140 1253
25 76 71 62 61 58 59 60 61
92 19 36 17 17 28 47 49 52
223 503 511 423 448 447 997 1129 1243
48 130 130 73 82 79 168 189 208
175 373 381 350 367 367 829 939 1035
4 18 18 17 17 17 39 45 49
171 355 363 334 349 350 790 895 986
20 87 98 92 96 96 217 246 271
0
151 268 265 242 253 254 572 649 714
0 0.4 0.37 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0
3
Balance sheet item
Fixed Assets 168 152 767 759 770 756 725
Capex 17 9 25 62 82 48 31
Net working capital 430 598 1359 2249 2419 2711 2626
2016 E 2017 E 2018 E
6539 7391 8134
4937 5580 6141
1602 1811 1993
427 482 531
1175 1328 1462
59 61 62
49 51 54
1164 1319 1453
141 159 175
1023 1160 1278
49 55 61
975 1104 1217
268 304 335
Shareholder's Equity:
Share Capital 288 288 288 288
Share premium 24 24 24 24
General reserve and surplus 148 152 195 303
proposed dividend 86 86 43 43
Retained Earnings
Total Shareholder's Equity 0 0 546 550 550 659
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 0 0 1,050 966 997 1,078
Financial Flexibility
Debt/EBITDA 0.69 0.55 0.61 0.19
EBITDA/Interest (Interest coverage ratio) 2.71 3.27 1.67 3.26
(EBITDA-Capex)/Interest 1.29 3.27 1.38 3.07
Debt by Equity 0.25 0.18 0.12 0.04
Capital Stucture
Total Assets/Total Liabilities 2.08 2.32 2.23 2.57
Long Term Debt/(L-Term Debt+SE) 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.04
Total Debt/(Total debt+SE) 0.42 0.37 0.39 0.33
Quality of Assets/Liabilities
ROA 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.14
ROE 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.23
ROIC 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.22
Capex/Revenue 0.09 0.00 0.02 0.01
Cashflow
Cash Conversion Cycle 129.48 149.07 124.48 144.62
Debt/FCF 0.11 1.25 0.36 7.61
FCF growth -0.93 1.24 -0.98
Business Profile
Sales Growth -4.1% 3.9% -14.5%
Export Sales as a percentage of total sales 9.9% 11.3% 13.4%
Profitability
PAT growth -7.5% -3.9% 74.0%
EBITDA growth -8.0% -41.7% 47.6%
EBIT growth -15.6% -11.8% 40.2%
Margins
Gross Margin 26% 24% 18% 24%
EBITDA Margin 16% 16% 9% 15%
EBIT Margin 18% 16% 13% 22%
Profit Margin 8% 8% 7% 15%
Operating Expense/Revenue 10% 9% 9% 9%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
73 - 7,525
19 31 183
73 - 19 31 7,708
1,198 384
1,531 3,254 3,506 3,777 9,834 10003.20 10439.38 10976.91 11603.20
2,850 4,386 4,207 4,441 22,825
0.0
NPV 2271
Net Debt 314
Market Value 1957
Implied Price 3
Current Trading Price 11.9
12.93043
2018
1099 Perpetual Growth Rate 3%
238 Risk Free Rate 11.25%
309 Market Rate 12.0%
80 Beta 1.00
7184 Expected rate of return 12.0%
653
43
395 Total no of shares 707.70
4768 Price 11.9
5163 Cost
1.6 Market Cap 8421.7 96.3% 12.0%
3286 Total debt 328.06 3.7% 15.0%
Enterprise Value 8749.7
WACC 12.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sales 1,203 1,029 2,410 2,405 2,800
COGS 990 783 1,742 1,750 2,098
Gross Profit 213 246 668 656 702
Operating Expense 108 91 108 109 197
EBITDA 105 156 560 546 505
Depreciation 26 25 76 71 63
Other Income 80 92 19 36 17
EBIT 159 223 503 511 459
Financial Expenses 63 48 130 130 67
Profit Before Tax & WPPF 96 175 373 381 391
WPPF 5 4 18 18 19
PBT 92 171 355 363 373
Income Tax 5 20 87 98 121
Deferred Tax
PAT 87 151 268 265 252
Shareholder's Equity:
Share Capital 288 288 612 1,480 1,628
Share premium 24 24 24 742 742
General reserve and surplus 195 303 896 1,032 1,136
proposed dividend 43 43
Retained Earnings
Shareholders' Equity 550 659 1,531 3,254 3,506
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 997 1,078 2,850 4,386 4,207
2014 2015
969 8,279
970 7,017
557 1,133
21 25
675 1,952
3 3
6
3,195 18,415
11 182
1,247 4,409
1,236 4,227
4,442 22,824
327 4,641
56 198
9 94
27 25
4 8
210 317
633 5,283
7,525
31 183
31 7,708
664 12,991
1,791 5,898
742 800
46 2,752
1,198 384
3,777 9,834
4,441 22,825
327 12,166
DCF - Stress
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EBIT 159 223 503 511 423 448
Tax 5 20 87 98 92 96
Depreciation 26 25 76 71 62 61
Capex 17 9 25 62 79 46
Working Capital 430 598 1359 2249 2613 2924
Change in WC 168 761 891 363 311
WPPF 5 4 18 18 17 17
FCF 47 -311 -488 -65 38
Terminal Value
Total Value 47 -311 -488 -65 38
PV Factor 1.0
PV 38
NPV 160
Net Debt 314
Market Value -154
Implied Price 0
Current Trading Price 11.9
WACC Calculation
2015 2015 2016 2018
447 997 1129 1243 Perpetual Growth Rate 3%
96 217 246 271 Risk Free Rate 11.3%
58 59 60 61 Market Rate 12.0%
30 63 71 78 Beta 1.00
2835 5995 6772 7446 Expected rate of return 12.0%
-89 3160 777 674
17 39 45 49
450 -2424 49 232 Total no of shares 707.70
2668 Price 11.9
450 -2424 49 2900
1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 Market Cap 8421.7 96.3%
402 -2165 39 1846 Total debt 328.06 3.7%
Enterprise Value 8749.7
WACC 12.0%
n
Cost
12.0%
15.0%
DCF - Optimistic
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EBIT 159 223 503 511 496 530
Tax 5 20 87 98 114 121
Depreciation 26 25 76 71 62 61
Capex 17 9 25 62 82 48
Working Capital 430 598 1359 2249 2419 2711
Change in WC 168 761 891 170 292
WPPF 5 4 18 18 21 22
FCF 47 -311 -488 173 109
Terminal Value
Total Value 47 -311 -488 173 109
PV Factor 1.0
PV 109
NPV 2289
Net Debt 314
Market Value 1975
Implied Price 3
Current Trading Price 11.9
WACC Calculation
2015 2016 2017 2018
526 1164 1319 1453 Perpetual Growth Rate 3%
120 268 304 335 Risk Free Rate 11.3%
59 59 61 62 Market Rate 12.0%
31 65 74 81 Beta 1.00
2626 5554 6277 6908 Expected rate of return 12.0%
-85 2927 724 631
22 49 55 61
497 -2086 223 408 Total no of shares 707.70
4686 Price 11.9
497 -2086 223 5093
1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 Market Cap 8421.7 96.3%
444 -1664 159 3242 Total debt 328.06 3.7%
Enterprise Value 8749.7
WACC 12.0%
n
Cost
12.0%
15.0%
July-Mar13 July-Mar12 2013 2012
9 months 9 months
Net turnover 2,171,576,843 1,714,767,679 26.64%
Gross turnover 2,491,891,740 1,961,361,499
VAT & duty 320,314,897 246,593,820
COGS 1,734,201,225 1,253,263,898 79.86% 73.09%
Gross income 437,375,618 461,503,781 20.14% 26.91%
Selling, distrbn & admin exp 151,933,631 72,691,825 7.00% 4.24%
Operating income 285,441,987 388,811,956
Interest expense 45,939,953 83,808,559 2.12% 4.89%
Non-operating income 9,197,419 30,953,843 -70.29%
Net income b4 WPPF 248,699,453 335,957,240
WPPF 7,778,889 15,997,964 3.13% 4.76%
Net income b4 tax 240,920,564 319,959,276
income tax 66,253,155 94,466,142 27.50% 29.52%
PAT 174,667,409 225,493,134 8.04% 13.15%
-22.54%
EPS 0.25 0.32
0.29 0.48
July-Dec 2012 July-Dec 2011 Oct-Dec 2012 Oct-Dec 2011
6 months 6 months 3 months 3 months
Net turnover 1,426,211,196 1,102,162,275 29.40% 727,308,457 556,557,343 30.68%
Selling, distribution & admi 101,159,323 47,881,307 7.09% 4.34% 62,635,804 22,262,294 8.61% 4.00%
Interest expense 34,670,024 56,241,316 2.43% 5.10% 16,815,372 32,628,624 2.31% 5.86%
3 months 3 months
104,369,459 91,895,420
Non-operating income 2,678,699 12,660,485 -78.84%
EPS 0.11
74.13%
25.87%
4.70%
21.17%
4.33%
29.30%
12.90%
TURNOVER
Cosmetics 1,304,536,379 46% Export 173,551,752
Detergent 455,729,516 16% % of total sales 6%
Soap 1,057,248,233 38%
2,817,514,128
Upto Quarter3 9 months 3 months
July11-Mar12 Jan to mar 12
NET INCOME FOR 3rd QUAR ENDED 225,493,133 84,064,705 13.15% 13.72%