1-Discussion and review of scenarios:

1-1 First set of scenario matrix

New renewable sources

explored

Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Undependable development New Era of bus propulsion

Low Technology High Technology

performance Performance
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
(Low importance) (High importance)
Standstill stage Stable development

No new renewable
sources explored

1-1-1 Undependable development

In the first scenario, the technology performance is low and there are new explored renewable
sources. The low performance of the technology with this new discovered energy sources will lead
to undependable development of the propulsion technology in buses. However, these new
renewable energy sources will be adequate with environmental factor and thus strengthens the
capability of the propulsion technology to be exist but to limited approach. The low technology
performance would be due to low level of economic situation that could affect the future of
research on these kinds of industry.

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1-1-2 New Era of bus propulsion

In the second scenario, the high performance of technology is found with the new explored
renewable sources of energies. This mixture will make a good and fabulous development
in the propulsion technology of buses. This is because that the higher performance of the
technology will help in developing new and unique ways of renewable energies that would
enhance the efficiency of the propulsion systems and be perfect for the environmental point
od view. However, this kind of scenario needs much resources of funds and good level of
technology awareness coming from social factors. On the other hand, this type of scenario
would be changed dramatically if the economic situation is at not good level.

1-1-3 Standstill stage

In the third scenario, there would be a low level of technology performance with no
renewable energy sources. This type of scenario would be the worst case ever in this set of
scenarios. This is because the performance of technology would be affected by many
unexpected factors such as the low economic force and un stable research strategies of the
country. Added to that, the renewable sources of energy are not discovered or even not
needed due to its high cost of establishment.

1-1-4 Stable development

In the fourth scenario, the performance of the technology development will be high with
low or no importance of the renewable energies. However the low importance of the
renewable energy at this scenario , there would be a stable development of the propulsion
technology according to the high performance of technology level at this case.

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 1-2 Second set of scenario matrix

Enough Fund

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Potential development Positive development of bus

propulsion

High technology
Low technology
performance
performance
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Maintain the present status Practical bus propulsion

Lack of fund

1-2-1 Potential development

In the first scenario, there would be high fund that could be enough to develop a good
technology of propulsion in buses. However, the existence of low level of technology
performance will slightly affect the technology development. This will lead to medium
development of the propulsion systems or in other words it can called as potential
development. This would because the social forces could affect the development according
to many factors, such as culture of the people to use buses and regional diversity.

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1-2-2 Positive development of bus propulsion

In the second scenario, the economic effect (enough fund) will be high and the technology
performance will be high. And this will lead to a high development in the prolusion
technology of buses. This is because the economic force has a big effect on this
development. . For example, if the developers are going to select Diesel systems, they
would face the crisis of high oil price in the next approaching years due to the un stable
situation of world economic. Also, the taxation factor is a leading cause of this kind of
economic effect. For example, if we are going to look about the maintenance cost of
different technologies for all powering propulsion systems, it will be found that all these
systems will have medium to high operation and maintenance costs. Due to different types
of propulsion, maintenance costs are not same. In addition, for the same propulsion buses,
the service time would cause different maintenance cost, which means that some
propulsion buses have large costs at in initial period, however, these propulsion buses may
have less maintenance costs in the later stage. Generally, compared with above propulsion
buses, the largest maintenance costs are diesel buses. In this scenario, funded agencies
would share in the development of technology, and this because the good economic
situation of country which encourage those funded agencies to share their business in the
development of technology

1-2-3 Maintain the present status

In the third scenario, the technology performance will be at low importance and the
economic situations(funds) also will be at low importance. This will lead to a low or even
no development in the technology of propulsion in buses. This is because the development
in technology will not feasible as the economic level is not at good situation.

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1-2-4 Practical bus propulsion

In the fourth scenario, the economic situation will be at low level (no fund) and the effect
of the technology performance will be at high level. This will lead to medium development
of bus propulsion technology. And this is because of the economic situation is considered
a strong factor that needed in any technology development. However this set of scenarios
had showed that a development in the propulsion technology may needs high level of
economic situation, these scenarios could be totally changed according to many factors
such as country political situation and its ability to have good technological aspects.

1-3 Comparison between the two sets of scenarios and critical

uncertainties

It could be found that there are no critical differences between these two matrices of
scenarios. However, there is a nominal effect of some forces that would affect the final
development of the propulsion system of buses, such as economical force effect and
environmental effect. However, these two different sets of matrices had showed some
optimistic and some pessimistic scenarios, these scenarios could be changed according to
the variations of opinions and to the variations in the worldwide economic situation.

In the first matrix of scenarios, there are two main leading variables, technological effects
and renewable energy effects. The combination of these two decision forces will lead to
four scenarios as mentioned previously. It is known that the main concern of the
technological effect is the powering method of the bus. The powering method could be
achieved using many sources such as, Diesel, Natural gas, hybrid-electric technology,
battery electric propulsion and hydrogen fuel cell. However, each type of powering method
has a benefits and disadvantages, and according to the economic decision, the selection of
powering type would be affected greatly. For example, if the developers are going to select
Diesel, they would face the crisis of high oil price in the next approaching years due to the
un stable situation of world economic. For the renewable energy effect, it also depends on
many factors, such as the availability of good funds and other social and environmental
factors. In the second matrix of scenarios, there are two main effective leading variables,

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economic variable(funds) and the technological effects. The combination of these two
decision forces will lead to four scenarios as mentioned previously.

The first important uncertainty is if the manufactures can develop the propulsion system of
the buses or not, and if there an appropriate fund for this development available by
developers. Firstly, the technique of STEEP will be used to define these uncertainties.
Recently, from the previous study of these two set of scenario matrix, there are many
obstacles that would face the manufacturer and developer. First, the social forces are an
important driving force, because this factor will greatly affect the stream of the
development in the technology. The social effect is related also to the economic effect, as
the economic situation of people greatly affect the questionnaire about the need of the
public transportation or not, especially bus transportation. Because if the economic
situation of a specific country is very well, hence people will aim to buy private
transportation vehicles instead of sing of public transportations. And thus, the development
here in the bus technology will not be feasible. On the other hand, if the economic situation
of a specific country is not good. Hence, people will tend to use the public transportation.
For example, for political forces of the STEEP analysis, this factor could be varied from
country to another country, As the bad political situations to affect the economic situation
of the technology development in industry. This could be reached to the level at which
funding agency became afraid from this bad economic situation, and thus will not fund the
development in many projects. However, the good political situations will make the
economic level of country to be at higher attitude, and thus more fund agency will be
available to fund these kinds of projects. A SWAT analysis also would be used to review
the first critical uncertainties which was the ability of the manufactures to develop the
propulsion system of the buses or not, and if there an appropriate fund for this development
available by developers. The strengths here would be obtained from the fabulous economic
situation of the country, weakness could be obtained from the restrictions of the
environmental regulations or even from the social factors. On the other hand, opportunities
could be obtained technology development in other regions, that would give a high
evidence for the ability to apply this development. Eventually, threads would be obtained

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from some minor economic forces as Taxation, which could be a real threat to the
development of that technology especially in regions where high taxation would be found,
such as in London, however the high charges of congestion in some cities will encourage
people to use other form of transportation. Also, the high tax on some fuel categories will
force the drivers to looking forward into a new and cheap source of energy that could save
their budget and at the same time feasible to use , such as using of hybrid systems.

The second critical uncertainty is if the technology of the renewable energy that would be
able to develop that kind of propulsion engines for buses. By using STEEP analysis, Social
forces would affect this kind of critical uncertainty. By the meaning, the ability of people
to change their culture about the sources of renewable energies that could be used in their
life and its effect on their health and country development, and if the culture of people is
good, the ability to develop this kind of renewable energies will be enhanced and thus
would be used in most of technology development. Furthermore, fund agencies could
encourage this kind of development according to the fabulous statistical referendum. The
technological effect would be such a good strength here, because the technology of
renewable energy is taking the most trend of research studies nowadays, thus the
development of propulsion technology for buses will not has a problem at this level. For
environmental force, it will be a great and perfect strength in this situation, because the
development of such renewable energies is aiming in the first place to make a more clean
and healthy environment. For the political force, the industry of renewable energy that
would use to develop propulsion system of buses will be affected by the level of political
system. If the level of political system is not a satisfactory manner, the economic level will
be being the same, and thus no funds would be found to develop these kinds of technology.
The challenge is even greater when trying to predict what technologies might be available
or in widespread use in the future and to predict the effectiveness and costs of those
technologies. So, if SOWAT analysis is used for the second uncertainty, the strength here
would be power and imperfections for renewable energies as a fabulous energy source in
future, and there will be not any problems at this level. For weakness, there will not be any
disadvantage here except in the high cost of using renewable energy as a factor to develop
the propulsion system of the buses. For the opportunities, there will be high opportunity to

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get funds for these kinds of projects. For Threats, there will be some issues to develop the
use of the renewable energy at large scale