The China Puzzle

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD SEPT. 16, 2017

Tyler Comrie

Steve Bannon, the former presidential confidante, was as apocalyptic as ever about
China on the eve of his trip to Hong Kong. The man who had all but declared
economic war with China in earlier interviews said to a Times reporter, A
hundred years from now, this is what theyll remember what we did to confront
China on its rise to world domination. On arrival, in a speech to a big investor
conference, he seemed to have softened a bit, praising Chinas leadership and
oering hopes that a trade war could be averted.

Mr. Bannon reflects a basic tension in the Trump administration: whether to

challenge China (and if so, where and when) or work with it. There is, on the one
hand, huge resentment toward Beijing which Mr. Bannon shares among those
who believe that China has grown its economy at the expense of the working and
middle classes. (The focus of his speech was instructive: American economic
nationalism and the populist revolt and Asia, the three intertwined in his mind.)
And then there are those who believe that without Chinas help there can be no
serious deterrent to North Korea (which fired o another missile near Japan last
week), no lasting stability in the South China Sea and the Asian rim as a whole.

This much is true: For the foreseeable future, no relationship is more crucial than
that between these two nations. Together, they have a combined population of more
than 1.7 billion people. Their economies dwarf all others, they both have nuclear
weapons, they both have veto power in the United Nations Security Council. Their
appetites and ambitions shape the globe: Together they can make for a more
peaceful world; as adversaries, they can make a mess of things.

To some extent, President Trump seems to understand all that. He engaged early
with President Xi Jinping, at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and has sought to regularly
consult the Chinese leader, including a recent exchange that the president
described as a very strong phone call. Yet, at the same time, he has failed to
articulate a coherent strategy toward China or to achieve significant progress on the
many consequential issues. He seems also to lump all China-related issues into one
big, menacing ball trade, taris, North Korea rather than dealing with them
separately, and this has added more complications.

Additionally, the administration has been

slow to get China experts into senior posts at
the White House and State Department; for
good or ill, Mr. Bannon was one person with
Mr. Trumps ear who took a big interest in
China. Now there is no senior person with
close ties to the president to oversee China
policy, which does little to foster a consistent
policy or reflect well on American
Tyler Comrie
leadership.

Against Mr. Trumps impulsiveness and his espousal of an America First agenda of
isolationism and protectionism, Mr. Xi projects a steady hand as he tries to remake
the global economic and political order and entice nations into Beijings orbit.

Chinese trade is undeniably a big draw for many countries. So is Mr. Xis promised,
though perhaps quixotic, $1 trillion investment in his One Belt, One Road initiative,
an ambitious network of trading routes and development projects roads, ports,
pipelines and the like from China to Africa and Europe that seems also to have
drawn Mr. Bannons admiration. Having long operated quietly in Russias shadow at
the United Nations, the Chinese are also speaking out more forcefully and engaging
more robustly across multiple regions, a trend that has accelerated under Mr.
Trump.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump, unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, who worked to
expand American influence in Asia, has ceded significant ground to China,
especially by withdrawing from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership and thus
allowing Beijing an opening to set trade rules in the region. The American president
will share the world stage with Mr. Xi for the first time this week when both men
address the annual United Nations General Assembly.

Can there be robust cooperation? In 2005, when President George W. Bush was in
oce, Robert Zoellick, then a deputy secretary of state, encouraged China to
become a responsible stakeholder and help strengthen the Western-designed
postwar international system from which it benefited. Yet today more ocials and
experts are putting China in the adversary category, or leaning toward doing so, not
least because of Beijings decision to expand its military capability and project it
further into the South China Sea.

Still, to anyone who steps back from the immediate conflicts over territory and
trade, there is no alternative to cooperation on major challenges, even if interests
arent always aligned. Mr. Trump is supposed to make his first presidential trip to
Beijing in November, and Mr. Xi will certainly want to demonstrate that he can work
with and manage the mercurial American president. The meeting is a natural
forcing mechanism for getting some things done.

Heres one thing that is not much talked about: counterterrorism. Mr. Trump
worries about the Islamic State, Mr. Xi about Muslim Uighurs in Chinas
northwestern region of Xinjiang. Beijing could benefit from American intelligence
about militants returning from the Middle East to Xinjiang; Washington would be
interested in Chinas help in persuading Pakistan to crack down on the Taliban.

On trade, there may be an opportunity for progress on a bilateral investment treaty,

with American investment oered in exchange for broader access to the Chinese
market for American companies. On intellectual property, now that China is putting
energy into developing its own technology instead of just stealing Americas, the two
could work together on stronger protections.

And then, of course, there is North Korea. Mr. Trump has insisted far more strongly
than Mr. Obama that China, as the Norths main supplier of food and fuel, could
single-handedly resolve the North Korea nuclear crisis if it wanted to. China can do
a lot, and it did support the United States in passing tougher United Nations
Security Council sanctions last week. But it has no interest in seeing North Korea
collapse, and doubts remain about whether it could force the North to negotiate.

There is a template for cooperation, and while it involves an issue in which Mr.
Trump has no interest, it provides a glimpse of a way forward. The issue is climate
change. A combination of arduous negotiation by Secretary of State John Kerry and
the Obama White House, plus Chinas own horrible air pollution problems, brought
Beijing around to signing the Paris accord and making a major commitment to
stabilize greenhouse gas emissions. Self-interest and patient diplomacy: a
combination that could work to the benefit of the entire world.