MEMO: MOORE IN DRIVER'S SEAT...

FUELED BY ALABAMA FAN SUPPORT

DATE: Thursday, October 12, 2017

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Matt Hubbard, VP Research & Analytics
RE: Survey of General Special Election Voters in Alabama

Alabama-based research and communication firm Cygnal conducted a telephone survey last week in
Alabama to examine the general election for the open US Senate seat vacated by US Attorney General
Jeff Sessions. It is representative of a projected turnout (t/o) universe of 1.2 million voters.

OVERALL RESULTS
This is our first survey since July where the definitely voting percentage was above 90%.
Roy Moore leads Doug Jones by 8pts overall.
Jones leads Moore by 5% among voters under 18-49 years old (27% of the projected turnout),
while Moore has a commanding lead of 12% with voters over the age of 50.
Jones suffers from low name ID - 18% of voters polled have never heard of Doug Jones -
compared to his Republican counterpart (3% never heard of)
Governor Kay Iveys favorability (65%) exceeds President Trumps (59%) by 7pts; Moores
favorability (53%) is higher than Jones (43%) by 10pts despite Moores higher unfavorables
(39%).
51% of special general election voters identify as fans of the Alabama Crimson Tide, while only
22% support the Auburn Tigers.
Moore has higher support than Jones among both Alabama (54%-38%) and Auburn (50%-45%)
fans.

GENERAL ELECTION BALLOT MATCHUP

Males support Moore (53%-38%) while females barely break for Jones (46%-45%).
The closest age group is voters 35-49 years old (48% Jones - 45% Moore) [20% of t/o].
Among voters with the highest propensity to vote in December, Moore leads by 14pts. Jones
leads among low propensity voters, but the margin isnt likely to be significant enough to change
results.
Moore leads Jones among married voters by 25pts (57%-32%).
Among voters that usually support Republican candidates, 13% say they will definitely support
Doug Jones; likewise 8% of Democratic-leaning voters will definitely support Roy Moore.
Head-to-head by (grouped) media market [see toplines for groupings]:
Huntsville ( 20% of vote) - 52% Moore - 39% Jones
Birmingham ( 41% of vote) - 46% Jones - 45% Moore
Montgomery ( 25% of vote) - 50% Moore - 39% Jones
Mobile ( 14% of vote) - 57% Moore - 36% Jones
FAVORABLE RATINGS

Person Overall Fav Very Fav Fav / Unfav Ratio Never Heard Of

Roy Moore 52.9% 35.0% 1.4:1 3.1%

Doug Jones 42.7% 31.9% 1.5:1 17.8%

Kay Ivey 65.0% 30.3% 3.8:1 6.6%

Donald Trump 57.8% 45.4% 1.5:1 0.6%

SUMMARY
Judge Roy Moores manifest destiny to fill Alabamas vacant US Senate seat hasnt shown any signs
of slowing down in the general election environment. Fueled by strong combination of support from fans
of his alma mater and the low name ID of his opponent, Moore is out to an early 8pt lead.

Despite Moores seeming grip on the Senate seat, Jones 41% support in a crimson red state shows
signs of life for the Democrats campaign - or at least reflects the polarizing nature of his opponent.

As with every survey, final results will determined by turnout. The results of this survey indicate that a
lower turnout bodes well for Moore. While we expect this race to heat up significantly moving into
November, any scenario short of a Kick-6 turnaround will have Moore on the victors stage in
December.

METHODOLOGY
This telephone survey was conducted October 2-5, 2017, with participation by 497 general special
election voters. It has a margin of error of 4.4%. Interviews were conducted using IVR technology to
landlines and live operators to cell phones. The survey was weighted to a projected statewide special
election general voter universe. The weighting average across all groups was barely off target at 1.02 -
much lower than the accepted industry average of 2. [ Cygnal conducted the survey. Cygnal and L2
shared costs of fielding the survey. L2 provided the voter data.]

ABOUT CYGNAL
Cygnal is a research and communication firm serving center-right committees, organizations, and consultants. They have
worked with ~150 clients group and conducted more than 360 highly accurate polls in nearly every state. www.cygn.al

ABOUT L2
L2 is a nonpartisan, nationwide voter data and analytics firm. They invest significant resources in maintaining an accurate
voter file to ensure campaigns have the best tools at their disposal. www.l2political.com