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Partners Of The In Gold we Trust Report 3
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Executive Summary 4
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1. Gold Where Are We Now And
Where Are We Going?
www.ingoldwetrust.report
Base Money Inflation And The Price Of Gold 6
20,000 2000
18,000
Gold in USD
12,000 In Q1 2017 alone, the
largest central banks
10,000 1200 created the equivalent of
almost USD 1,000 bn.
8,000 worth of central bank
money ex nihilo
6,000
800 Almost a decade of zero
4,000 and negative interest rates
has atomised any form of
2,000 risk aversion
0 400
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
PBOC SNB BOJ ECB FED Gold
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Mind The Donald: Yields Surged After Election 7
3.0% 1400
2.0%
1.5%
Trump optimism and
the related yield surge
1100 enabled continuation of
1.0% the hiking cycle in
December 2016
1000
0.5%
Will Trump be a
sustainable game
0.0% 900 changer for interest
rates and gold?
10Y Treasury Yield Fed Fund Rate Upper Limit Gold Price
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The Everything Bubble: Financial Assets Relative To
8
Disposable Personal Income
Everything Bubble ?
550% " Stocks, bonds and
real estate have all
Housing Bubble 2. The Sceptics become as overvalued as
Financial Assets of Households / Disposable Personal
manipulation is the
worst economic
400% expansion since the
Great Depression and
the greatest wealth
inequality since that
350% period.
Jesse Felder
300%
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
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World Gold Price vs. Dollar Gold Price Since 2011 9
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Average Annual Gold Price (USD) 10
2,000
1669
1,800
1561
1410
1,600
Average annual gold price (USD)
1266
1249
1246
1228
1,400
1161
1,200
974
867
1,000
701
800
608
604
458
447
446
600
436
417
412
387
385
384
383
382
378
367
364
363
362
360
344
333
317
316
310
294
280
278
271
400
194
164
160
148
125
98
200
58
41
Annual average gold prices puts the recent gold price correction into perspective
Clearly shows the benefit of a regular accumulation of gold ("gold savings plan") as a long-term strategy
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Gold Bull Market 1970s vs. 2000 To Date 11
1,350
However, we can
150 see that the duration
of both corrections
2000 Bull Market 70s Bull Market
diverges significantly.
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
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Gold Monthly Closes vs. S&P Monthly Closes 12
180%
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GSCI/S&P500 Ratio: Equities Expensive, Commodities Cheap? 13
Gulf Crisis
10 1990
9 GFC 2008
Oil Crisis In a historical context, the
8 1973/1974 relative valuation of
commodities to equities
7 seems extremely low.
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Change Of Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. Change Of Gold
14
Reserves
39.93% 40.15%
37.01%
30.43%
27.26% Central banks try to fine-tune
the tightrope walk between
deflation and inflation.
19.15%
This chart underlines the
relative scarcity of gold in
comparison with fiat currencies
that can be inflated at will.
1.48%
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2. White, Gray And Black Swans
Ray Dalio
www.ingoldwetrust.report
A Black Swan? Zero Analysts See Recession 16
Of 89 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg, not a single one
50 currently expects a GDP
contraction in 2017, 2018 or
45 2019.
2017
40 The median expected growth
2018
rate in these years ranges from
Number of Analyst Forecasts
35 2019
2.2 to 2.4 percent.
30
The extremely high degree of
confidence in the economy's
25
robustness is also reflected by
market-based risk indicators.
20
The last time the VIX was close
15 to today's levels was in 2007
shortly before the beginning of
10 the crisis.
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Rate Hike Cycles And Following Recessions In The US 17
20
13
18
12
16
14
11
12
14
10 10
8 15
2 5 16
6 1 3 4 9
8
4 7
6 17?
2
0
1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
US Recessions Effective Federal Funds Rate (pre 1955 Fed NY discount rate)
Source: Fed St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank New York, Incrementum AG
As a long-term chart of the Fed funds rate reveals, the vast majority of rate hike cycles has led to a
recession. Moreover, every financial crisis was preceded by rate hikes.
The historical evidence is overwhelming in the past 100 years, 16 out of 19 rate hike cycles were followed
by recessions. Only three cases turned out to be exceptions to the rule.
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US Unemployment Rate Low Levels Beget High Levels And
Vice Versa 18
12 1
11 0.9
Recessions
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Quantitative Tightening Having Opposite Consequences Than
Quantitative Easing? 19
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
USD bn.
2500
2000
In June 2019 the current
1500 economic expansion would
become the longest in US
1000 history...
500
As part of the normalization process of US monetary policy, QT was implemented starting in October 2017
As Quantitative Easing was extremely positive for asset price inflation, it can be expected that Quantitative Tightening
might have the opposite effect
In order to return to pre-crisis levels of the Feds balance sheet, there may not occur a further recession until 2024
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Incrementum Inflation Signal Showing Rising Inflation 20
300
0.9
250
0.7
0.3
150
0.1
100
-0.1
50
-0.3
0 -0.5
07/2005 07/2006 07/2007 07/2008 07/2009 07/2010 07/2011 07/2012 07/2013 07/2014 07/2015 07/2016 07/2017
Source: Incrementum AG
We are increasingly convinced, that the unfavorable environment for inflation sensitive assets, which has
prevailed since 2011, has come to an end.
By the end of September, our proprietary Inflation Signal switched to rising inflation.
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Performance Of Different Asset Classes In A Variety Of Price
Inflation Regimes 21
26.40%
Equities Fixed Income US TIPS Energy Equities
24.00%
30% Mining Equities Precious Metals Commodities
15.00%
13.50%
20%
11.30%
10.60%
10.50%
Performance p.a.
7.10%
5.30%
4.70%
10%
4.00%
3.70%
3.60%
3.40%
2.50%
2.20%
1.90%
1.50%
0%
-4.40%
-10%
-10.30%
-11.10%
-20%
Falling Inflation Stable Inflation Rising Inflation
Source: Wellington Asset Management, Incrementum AG
Both stocks and bonds tend to lose ground in an environment of accelerating price inflation. Even though
stocks are considered to be suitable inflation hedges, historical data on this point are rather more ambiguous.
Gold stocks and the stocks of other commodity producers have attractive characteristics in the context of
prudent portfolio diversification, as they are clearly positively correlated with rising inflation rates.
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Gray Swans And Their Possible Effect On The Gold Price 22
Source: Incrementum AG
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Mind The Gap! S&P 500 vs. Gross Tax Receipts 23
210
190
Strong divergence
170 between stock
market and gross
150 tax receipts
If the economy is
130
improving, why do
tax receipts
110 stagnate?
90
70
50
2007
2008
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: https://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html, Mac Overton, Incrementum AG
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S&P 500 vs. Net Corporate Tax Receipts 24
180
Especially
160 Corporate Profits
seem to lose
140 momentum, which
also confirmed by
most recent
120
earnings numbers
as well as earnings
100 revisions.
80 An outright
decrease in tax
receipts is only
60
seen during
economic
40 contractions.
20
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3. De-Dollarization: Good-bye
Dollar, Hello Gold!
Kenneth Rogoff
www.ingoldwetrust.report
Global Reserve Currencies Since 1400 26
Gold
The dominant currency is always
issued by the economically
USA dominant country of an era.
Portugal
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Russian Gold Reserves 27
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG 2016
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Monetary Aggregates In US-Dollars Backed-Up Per Troy Ounce
Of Gold (1971-2017) 28
60,000
50,000
We have calculated a series of
shadow gold prices, by dividing the
40,000
stocks of the different monetary
aggregates by the amount of gold
holdings in their respective central
banks.
30,000
This helps to get a feeling of how
many units of each currency are in
20,000 fact backed by gold.
M0 M1 M2
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US Monetary Base vs. US Gold Reserves At Market Prices (Log
29
Scale)
10000
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US Monetary Coverage Ratio
Scenarios
120
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Gold-Backing Of US Monetary Aggregates 31
Gold-Backing of US M0 M1 M2 M3
Monetary Aggregates
We may also project at which market prices a troy ounce of gold should trade to back up each of such US
monetary aggregates in larger proportions, namely 20%, 40% and 100%.
The alternative to revaluing gold to the levels discussed here is to force an outright contraction of the US
broad or possibly even narrow money supply, which would wreak havoc with the banking system and
economy, exactly the opposite of what is needed to restore a degree of monetary stability not only to the US
but also to the global economy. (John Butler, The Golden Revolution Revisited)
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US Debt, By Category, vs. GDP (USD trn.) 32
80
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
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U.S. M2 Money Supply To Saving Ratio 33
Everything bubble
18
Q1 2017
16
14
M2 / Saving Ratio
12
Black Monday, S&L crisis
10 Q3 1987 Dotcom bubble
8 Q1 2001 Subprime bubble
Q1 2008
6
4
2
0
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
M2/Saving-Ratio
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve St. Louis, Atle Willems, Incrementum AG
Peaks in the MS/S ratio for the U.S. economy are regularly associated with the end of inflationary
booms and the onset of financial crises.
The higher the MS/S ratio and the longer it remains elevated, the greater the probability of an
economic reaction and hence the greater the chances gold, with its safe haven properties, will
appreciate.
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4. The Portfolio Characteristics Of
Gold
It aint't what you don't
know that gets you in
trouble. It's what you
know for certain that just
ain't true.
Mark Twain
www.ingoldwetrust.report
USD-Index: Indicator For Financial Crises? 35
0%
-10%
Volcker FED
???
-20% US Recession
Drastic Tightening
-30% FED Tightens
"Black Monday" Weak Dollar
-40% 1987 Crash
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
USD Index (30mo chg.)
Source: FRED, Incrementum AG
The US dollar remains the undisputed senior international fiat currency and with that a mirror image of
global events. This chart shows the thirty-month rate of change of the USD Index.
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Correlation US-Dollar Index And Gold Since 1974 36
20%
In stress situations many investors still
have confidence in the US dollar and
regard it as a safe haven from external
threats a quality frequently attributed
to gold as well.
10%
Gold Price YoY One might be inclined to expect a
in Percent positive correlation between gold and
the US dollar. As the chart illustrates,
this is not always the case though.
0% Why?
-50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
In local crises, the dollar is seen as a
desirable asset by many market
participants because the survival of the
-10% fiat money system as such is not
questioned.
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Performance Of US Dollar Index And Gold 37
35
The traditional inverse
30 28.2
26.0 correlation between gold and
25.3
25 the US dollar is very helpful
in a portfolio context to
20 reduce volatility.
15.2
15 12.6 12.5
11.6 That applies specifically to
Return %
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Negative Interest Rates Are A Perfect Environment For Gold! 38
2,100
11
1,800
9
Real Fed Funds Rate (%)
7 1,500
5 1,200
Gold
3
900
1
600
-1
-3 300
-5 0
There are two conspicuous time periods that were shaped by predominantly negative real interest rates (in red).
Both phases clearly represented a positive environment for the gold price.
However, one can also discern that the trend of real interest rates is extremely important for the gold price. Thus
real interest rates have been stuck in negative territory most of the time since 2011, but were in an upward
trend. This increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, which created an unfavorable environment for the
gold price.
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Copper, Silver, EURO, US-Dollar & Oil In The Currency Gold 39
1000%
Relatie Value to Gold
100%
Gold
US-Dollar
EURO
10% Copper
Silver
Oil
1%
1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Source: FRED, Bloomberg, onlygold.com, Incrementum AG
This chart shows the gradual erosion of purchasing power of several currencies and commodities
versus gold since 1971. While the price of oil in terms of gold tends to be relatively stable over time, the
US dollar has lost more than 95% of its purchasing power relative to oil over the same time period.
Gold has a track record of successfully preserving value and purchasing power over thousands of
years. In the course of human history, the market has chosen gold as the best money based on logical
and rational reasons such as its high liquidity, indestructibility, high value density, fungibility, divisibility,
world-wide acceptance, etc.
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Gold/Beer Ratio: How Many Ma Beer Does One Ounce Of
40
Gold Buy At The Oktoberfest?
250
200 1980:
227 Beer/Ounce
Litres of beer per ounce of gold
2017:
150 100 Beer/Ounce
87
1971: Beer/Ounce
48 Beer/Ounce
100
50
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: www.HaaseEwert.de, Historisches Archiv Spaten-Lwenbru, Incrementum AG
While a liter of beer (a Ma in German) at the Munich Oktoberfest in 1950 cost the equivalent of
EUR 0.82, the average price in 2017 was EUR 10.78.
Historically the average is 87 liters thus the beer purchasing power of gold is currently slightly
above the long-term average.
These examples illustrate that gold conserves or even increases purchasing power in the long term,
while it is once again made quite clear what a massive deterioration in purchasing power fiat money
has been subjected to.
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6. Mining Shares
www.ingoldwetrust.report
Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI): Bull And Bear Market Cycles
42
Since 1995
700
We want to highlight the
enormous volatility and inflation
600 sensitivity of the mining sector.
As the chart illustrates, gold
stocks are anything but buy and
500
hold investments and should be
actively managed.
400
The following quote confirms
this as well: Market and sector
300 forces together typically cause
80% of the price movement in a
stock. That means the company
200 fundamentals usually account
for less than 20% of a stocks
price movement. This is the
100
reason a companys stock price
sometimes seems to move
0 independently of the
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 fundamentals
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Apple vs. Gold Bugs Index 43
900
800
700
600
MCap (billions)
500
400
300
200
100
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Gold Bugs Index (HUI) Market Cap (bn USD) APPLE (AAPL) Market Cap (bn USD)
Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
At the moment the entire HUI, which includes the 16 largest unhedged gold producers, is valued roughly USD
100 billion. This amount represents just 0.4% of the market capitalization of all S&P 500 Index members. The
market capitalization of Apple alone exceeds that of the 16 companies in the index by more than 700%.
One could use the cash hoard of Apple (AAPL) to purchase the entire Gold Bugs Index 2.5 times over, or
alternatively buy 6,500 tons of gold. If Apple did the latter, it would be the second largest gold holder in the
world.
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Alphabet vs. Gold Bugs Index 44
950
800
650
bn. USD
500
350
200
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Market Cap World Mining Index Market Cap GOOGLE (Alphabet)
Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
The World Mining Index, which comprises of the largest mining companies in the world, currently has a
significantly lower market value than Google.
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Historic Bear Markets In Mining Stocks 45
100%
08.1974 - 08.1976 03.1968 - 12.1969
02. - 11.2008 01.1996 - 10.2000
80%
10.1980 - 06.1982 01.1983 - 11.1986
03.1939 - 04.1942 04.2011 - 01.2016
Performance
60%
40%
20%
0%
1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361 401 441
Number of Weeks
Source: Nowandfutures, TheDailyGold.com, Barrons, Incrementum AG
While the fundamentals of the mining sector stabilized in the 2014-2015-period, early 2016 was the time of the
final capitulation. At the time, precious metals mining stocks exhibited the worst 5 and 10 year rolling
performance in 90 years.
During the final slump, they fell to an all-time low relative to the S&P 500 Index, and their price to book ratios
stood at the lowest level in 40 years (which is as far back as the data go). The chart also makes clear that the
preceding bear market was an historically unique event.
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Historic Bull Markets In Mining Stocks 46
800%
10/1942-02/1946 07/1960-03/1968 12/1971-08/1974
700% 08/1976-10/1980 11/2000-03/2008 10/2008-04/2011
01/2016-09/2017
600%
500%
Performance
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361 401
Number of Weeks
Source: Nowandfutures, TheDailyGold.com, Barrons, Incrementum AG
If one looks at all bull markets in the Barron's Gold Mining Index (BGMI), one notices that the current uptrend
is still relatively modest in terms of duration and performance.
Should we really be on the cusp of a pronounced uptrend in the sector which we assume to be the case
quite a bit of upside potential would remain.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, an analyst whom we greatly respect, describes the sector's status as bearish bull.
@IGWTreport
Free Cash Flows Of HUI Companies 2016 Higher Than In 2011! 47
6,000
4,000
2,000
in Million USD
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Free Cash Flow
Source: Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
A clearly positive trend is detectable in terms of operating earnings. The gold industry has evidently
learned to live with lower prices.
In 2012 and 2013 the component companies of the HUI index still generated significant negative cash
flows. The situation brightened considerably in ensuing years. Last year the gold mining companies in the
index generated free cash flows totaling USD 4.8 bn., which exceeded the previous record high of 2011.
@IGWTreport
The Case For Mining Stocks 48
We are convinced that due to their response to the four-year long bear market, the majority of gold
producers rests on a more solid fundamental basis.
A preview of the sector's asymmetric return potential and its greater gold price leverage was provided
in the first half of last year, when gold stocks rallied by 180%, while gold generated only a gain of
28%.
The industry must continue to deliver on the promises made in recent years and keep working on
rebuilding investor confidence.
We remain firmly convinced that the large valuation discount at which gold stocks trade relative to the
broader market is going to narrow over the long term.
The focus should be on conservatively managed companies which are not merely pursuing an agenda
of growth at any price, but are instead prioritizing shareholder interests.
In our investment process, we are currently focused on developers and emerging producers.
Based on the premise that the bull market in gold has resumed, we expect the gold-silver ratio to
decline over the medium term from its current elevated level. In such a scenario, particularly promising
investment opportunities should emerge in the stocks of silver mining companies.
@IGWTreport
7. Conclusion
"There are about three hundred
economists in the world who are against
gold, and they think that gold is a
barbarous relic - and they might be right.
Janos Fekete
www.ingoldwetrust.report
Conclusion 50
After years of zero interest rate policy, investors have become used to the
monetary surrealism created by central banks
A certain type of fear is currently rife: the fear of missing out. Many skeptics
remain on the dance floor even if they remain close to the exit. The question is
whether the exit will be big enough to accommodate all of them?
Whether one fully agrees with our critical assessment of the system is one thing;
the question of whether one should hold an appropriate share of one's liquid
wealth in the form of a golden insurance reserve is a different kettle of fish.
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Scenarios For The End Of This Presidential Term 51
Source: Incrementum AG
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Disclaimer 52
The authors have exercised the greatest possible care in the selection of
the information sources employed, however, they do not accept any
responsibility (and neither does Incrementum AG) for the correctness,
completeness or timeliness of the information, respectively the information
sources, made available, as well as any liabilities or damages, irrespective
of their nature, that may result there from (including consequential or
indirect damages, loss of prospective profits or the accuracy of prepared
forecasts).
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Appendix:
www.ingoldwetrust.report
About Incrementum AG 54
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Ronald-Peter Stoeferle 55
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Mark J. Valek 56
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Testimonials (1) 57
Marcus Grubb,
Former CEO World Gold Council
John Hathaway,
Manager Tocqueville Asset Management
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Testimonials (2) 58
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Testimonials (3) 59
Philip Barton,
President, Gold Standard Institute
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Many Thanks For Your Support!
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