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The Wickers Group conducted a statewide telephone survey October 21-24, 2017, on behalf of the
Kemp for Governor Campaign, among 400 residents of Georgia both registered and considered likely to
vote in the May 2018 Republican primary election for governor. At a .95 confidence level, this study
carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. A 48%/52% Male/Female quota was enforced and 30% of
respondents were reached by cell phone. What follows are the key findings of this study.
I. Casey Cagles Current Support Among Republican Primary Voters is Soft and Fluid, With Only
15% of the Electorate Saying They Would Definitely Vote for Him
While Casey Cagle currently leads Brian Kemp overall 34% to 13%, a significant majority (56%) of Cagle
voters say they will Probably vote for the Lieutenant Governor while well under half (44%) say they
will Definitely vote for him.
If next years Republican primary election for governor were being held today, for whom would you
vote? READ LIST and ROTATE (IF ANSWERED ASK: ) And would that be DEFINITELY or PROBABLY
(CHOICE)?
Among voters who say they are Definitely voting for their choice, Cagle leads Kemp by only 8 points,
15% to 7%.
All other candidates register barely any ballot support or none at all and nearly one-half (48%) of all
likely GOP primary voters remain undecided.
Brian Kemp leads Casey Cagle on the second choice ballot 32% to 17%, with Hunter Hill at a distant 7%.
III. Casey Cagles Soft Support At This Early Stage in The Race is Primarily a Product of His Higher
Name Recognition
Now I'm going to read you the names of some prominent people and I would like to ask your opinion of
them. I'd like you to tell me if, in your opinion, they are one of the best, or if your opinion is favorable or
unfavorable. If you just know the name or have never heard of the person please just say so.
Casey Cagle 7 44 14 6 15 14 1
Cagles total name recognition is currently 16 points higher than Brian Kemp (86-70).
After 23 years in office, ten of those years serving as Lieutenant Governor, Casey Cagle has higher name
recognition than Brian Kemp. This should come as no surprise to Georgia political observers, GOP donors
and thought leaders. Here is what may be surprising to them:
Cagles ballot support is soft and fluid, with Definitely Cagle at only 15% and Probably Cagle
at 19%; a foundation built on more sand than rock.
Well over half of all Cagle voters are in play.
Cagles vote is driven by his higher name recognition.
With over half of Cagle voters up-for-grabs and half of all votes undecided, both name
recognition and the ballot will tighten significantly when Brian Kemp goes up on the air with
traditional statewide advertising and voter contact.