Worksheet 1

Reliability studies using basic elements from the probability theory

Problem 1.

We consider an illumination system with 7 bulbs connected as in figure 1:

7 2

6 3

5 4

Figure 1. Illumination system with 7 bulbs

The system from figure 1 operates as long as there are no two faulty adjacent bulbs. Thus, the
illumination system is redundant being able to operate with 1, 2 or 3 faulty bulbs with the
condition that the two bulbs are not adjacent. For the non-redundant version of the system
four bulbs are necessary with the condition that all bulbs to be functional.

Solution:

The probability of one bulb failure in a given time interval is . We evaluate the reliability
improvement of the redundant version of the system over the non-redundant version.

a) For the non-redundant version:

= 1 with the condition that none of the four bulbs being faulty.

b) For the redundant version, the complexity of the analysis increases which implies a
systematic approach.

We denote by , , ,, the set of events that have the following meaning:

- no bulb failure happens in the given time interval;

- , , failures of any bulbs happen in the given time interval and the other 7 bulbs
remain operational;

- - all bulbs fail;

First, we check that the set , , ,, represents a complete set of events. Indeed, the
following conditions are fulfilled:

= , , ! 0,1,2, ,7 , !
 is the true event because all failure possibilities are included

The probabilities that the events take place are:

' = 1 there is no faulty bulb;

)
' =( 1 any bulbs fails;

' = - all bulbs are faulty;

Now we need to check that the sum of the probabilities of the 8 events is 1.

Indeed the probability ' = ' = 1 +( 1 +( 1

,
+ + ( 1 + = 1 + = 1 = 1 (Newton binomial)

Using the probabilities of these events, we can determine the reliability function of the
redundant system considering the favorable situations:

2 1
. =' +' + ' + ' 1
3 5
We determine the ratios used for ' and ' 1 calculation. For doing this, the ratio
between the favorable cases and the number of possible cases should be determined.

Event is the total number of combinations when 2 bulbs fail and the others remain

operational. Thus, the value of =( = = 21. From these, 7 situations are not favorable
determining the system to stop operating: 1,2 , 2,3 , 3,4 , 6,7 and 7,1 .
)
Finally we have the rapport: ' = = = 1.

For the event 1:

When the first bulb fails, all remaining bulbs are numbered ascending starting with the faulty
bulb. For the next two bulbs that fail later we consider the following combinations:

2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,7 - first line is excluded because 2 is adjacent to 1

3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 - the diagonal is excluded because 7 is adjacent to 1

4,5 4,6 4,7 - first column is excluded because all pairs are adjacent

5,6 5,7

6,7

- The favorable cases are: 1,3, 5 , 1,3,6 , 1,4,6

1
We have to take into account the following rapport: =,
,

, , 1
. = 1 +7 1 +1 1 +, 1 implies that:
1
 , 1
. = 1 +7 1 + 14 1 +7 1

The redundancy efficiency is evaluated using the ratio between the failure probability of the
non-redundant system and the failure probability of the redundant system.

The increasing index of the reliability is given by the relation:

) 89:;
567 = (If 567 > 0 using redundant elements was a good idea)
) <;

Homework:

1. Compute the reliability increasing index for = 0.1; = 0.05; = 0.03 and = 0.01

2. Make the graphs for the functions and . as in figure 2.

1

0 q
Figure 2. Functions . and variation

The figure 2 shows that the values for the redundant system are higher than the values for the
non-redundant system.

Observation: The number of bulbs should not be computed exactly.

The total probability formula and the Bayes rule

If ? , ? , ?1 form a complete set of events (that fulfill the conditions ? ? = ,

, ! 1,2, , @ , ! and ? is the true event) than the occurrence probability of any
event can be calculated using the relation: ' = ' |? ' ?

' |? ' |?

? ? ?
' ? ' ? ' ?

Figure 3. Graphical presentation of the total probability

When the event take place it makes sense to determine the probability of event A
occurrence respecting the conditions expressed as ? , = 1, @.

In order to fulfill this goal we should apply the Bayes rule expressed by the formula:
B(C|DE B(DE
' ?| = (Bayes Rule)
B(C

Prove:
B(DE C
'(? |
B(C

B(CDE
Known that '( |? B(DE
=> '( ? = '( |?G '(?

B(DE C B(CDE B(C|DE B(DE

we deduced: '(? | = = =
B(C B(C B(C

Problem 2.

When using a communication channel affected by noise, sometimes the transmitted logical 0
could be interpreted at the receiver as logical 1 and a transmitted logical 1 could be
interpreted as a logical 0.

The probability that a logical 0 to be correctly received is 0.91, while the probability that a
logical 1 to be received correctly is 0.94.

It is known that 45 % of the data transmitted on the communication channel are logical 0 bits.

To be determined:

- The probability that a transmitted bit to be received as logical 1.

- The probability that a transmitted bit to be received as logical 0.

- The probability of receiving correctly a logical 1

- The probability of receiving correctly a logical 0

- The probability that an error will appear when transmitting bits using the communication
channel affected by noise.

Solution:

We define firstly several first order events:

H - a logical 0 was transmitted

H - a logical 1 was transmitted

- a logical 0 was received

a logical 1 was received

The valid events for the problem solving are:

, , H | ,H | ,H ,H

For these events we must calculate their occurrence probability. Thus we have to know in the
first place the stochastic model that describes the operation of the channel affected by noise.
' H H

' H H
Figure 4. The stochastic model of the affected channel by noise

For knowing completely the operation of the communication channel affected by the noise we
must know la following probabilities: ' H , ' H , ' |H , ' |H , ' |H , and
' |H

The problem states that ' H = 0.45, ' |H = 0.94, ' |H = 0.91

Using these values we can deduce the probabilities:

' H =1' H = 0.55

' |H =1' |H = 0.06

' |H =1' |H = 0.09

For ' and ' we apply the total probability formula for the events set H J@K H }.

' =' |H ' H + ' |H ' H = 0.94 0.55 + 0.09 0.45 = 0.517 + 0.0405 =
= 0.5575

' =' |H ' H + ' |H ' H = 0.91 0.45 + 0.06 0.55 = 0.4425

For calculation of ' |H and ' H | we apply the Bayes rule:

B L |ML B ML .N .,,
' |H = = = 0.9274 (1)
B L .,, ,

B O |MO B MO .N . ,
' H| = = = 0.9254 (2)
B O . ,

Using the last two equations we deduce that: ' H | = 1' H | = 0.0726

' H| =1' H | = 0.0746

' PQQRQ = ' H +' H = ' |H ' H + ' |H ' H

= 0.09 0.45 + 0.06 0.55 = 0.0405 + 0.033 = 0.0735

Alternatively:
' PQQRQ = ' H | '( + '(H | '( = 0.0726 0.5575 + 0.0746 0.4425
= 0.07348

The value of '(PQQRQ implies that 7.35 % of bits are affected by the communication
channel. The solution of this problem is to introduce control bits that allow the detection of
the bits affected by the noise.

Homework solution:

1. First we calculate the reliability increasing index for:

= 0.1; = 0.05; = 0.03; = 0.01

1
567 =
1 .

= (1
, 1
= (1 + 7 (1 + 14 (1 +7 (1

0.1 0.05 0.03 0.01

0.6561 0.8145 0.8853 0.9606
. 0.9376 0.9834 0.9939 0.9993
567 5.5115 11.1747 18.8033 56.2857

0 q

Figure 5. Functions . and variation