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Bi 4 & 5

Chit khu ngn lu


Gi tr hin ti
Phn tch ti chnh
Hc k xun
MPP8- 2016

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Ni dung
1- Khi nim
1.1. Gi tr hin ti
1.2. Gi tr hin ti rng
1.3. Chi ph c hi ca vn
1.4. Li sut n, li sut kp

2- Cc cng thc tnh


2.1. Ngn lu u
2.2. Ngn lu u v hn
2.3. Ngn lu tng u
2.4. Ngn lu tng u v hn
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1.1. Gi tr hin ti
mt ng cm tay hn hai ng ha hn
. 1 ng hm nay c gi tr cao hn 1 ng ngy mai
. 1 ng an ton c gi tr hn 1 ng ri ro

Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin s nhn trong tng lai (t=n) l gi tr


tng ng ca khon tin vo thi im hin ti (t=0) .

PV CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 CF n

t=0 1 2 3 4 n Thi gian

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Tnh gi tr hin ti

Tnh gi tr hin ti (Present Value, PV) l vic xc nh gi tr ti thi


im hin ti (t=0) ca dng ngn lu (Cashflow, CFt) s nhn trong
tng lai (t = n). Ngn lu s nhn ny c quy v hin ti bng cch
nhn vi h s chit khu (discount factor, 1/(1+r)n).

PV CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 CF n

t=0 1 2 3 4 n Thi gian

n CF t
PV = (1+r)t
t=1

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V d 1.1
Bn trng x s. Bn c th chn mt trong cc cch tr thng sau:

(1) 200 triu VND/nm lin tc trong 3 nm ti


(2) 600 triu VND sau 3 nm, k t hm nay
(3) 100 triu VND/nm lin tc trong 6 nm ti
(4) 500 triu VND ngay lp tc

Sut chit khu thch hp l 10%

Bn chn cch no?

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1.2. Gi tr hin ti rng
NPV (Net present value): L gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin s
nhn tr i gi tr hin ti ca cc khon u t.
r (sut chit khu, chi ph vn): l sut sinh li ti thiu m nh u t
trng i (MARR, Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return )

C0 u t ban u
NPV Gi tr hin ti rng
r Sut chit khu
CF t Ngn lu rng k vng vo thi im t

n CFt
NPV = t
- C0
t=1 (1+r)

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S dng khi nim gi tr hin ti:
nh gi, thm nh d n v ra quyt nh

nh gi l g?
Lu cc bc tin hnh nh gi:
c tnh t s: ngn lu ca d n
nh gi ri ro ca d n
c tnh mu s: sut chit khu chi ph vn
S dng phn tch chit khu ngn lu

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Ra quyt nh:

+ Nu NPV > 0, quyt nh u t


+ Nu NPV < 0, khng u t

Cng mt mc sinh li trng i, gia hai d n th chn d n c


NPV ln hn
Tiu ch NPV cao cc dng tin ngn hn hn cc dng tin trong
di hn
Sut chit khu cng cao, gi tr hin ti rng cng gim

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1.3. Chi ph c hi ca vn
Chi ph c hi ca vn: l li ch thay th ln nht m vic s dng
ngun vn c th mang li
Sut chit khu: c tnh da trn chi ph c hi ca vn u t, bng
cch xem sut sinh li ca cc d n tng ng c cng ri ro.
Sut sinh li ni ti IRR (Internal Rate of Return): l sut chit khu lm
cho gi tr hin ti rng ca u t bng 0

IRR > MARR ((Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return )

IRR: Mc sinh li ti a i vi nh u t vn
Nu mi iu kin khc nh nhau, gia hai d n, chn d n c
mc sinh li ni ti IRR ln hn
C th khng xc nh c IRR, hoc c nhiu IRR
Khi so snh cc d n, tiu ch IRR c th dn n kt lun khc tiu
ch NPV : u tin tiu ch NPV

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V d 1.2
Doanh nghip ca bn nh thanh l mt s xe t. C
hai doanh nghip mun mua s xe ny, mt bn ngh
tr ngay 30 t VND, mt bn mua gi 33 t nhng tr
tin sau 1 nm. Hin ti doanh nghip ca bn ang n
ngn hng mt khon tin ln vi li sut 15%/nm. Li
sut tin gi hin hnh l 7%/nm.

a) Nu bn c dng ton b s tin thanh l xe tr


mt phn n cho ngn hng trc thi hn, bn s chn
ngh no?
b) Nu khng c tr n trc hn, quyt nh ca bn c
thay i g khng?

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V d 1.3
Cui nm 2015 bn lnh tin thng 200 triu VND. Bn
c hai la chn u t:
1- Gi tit kim li sut 7%/nm
2- Gp vn vi ngi thn mua nh cho thu. Ngn lu
rng nm u d kin bn c 10 triu VND, hai nm
tip c 20 triu VND/nm. Cui nm 2019 bn rt
vn v nhn ngn lu tng cng c 225 triu VND.

A) D n u t mua nh cho thu c hp dn bn khng?


B) Sut sinh li ni ti ca d n mua nh cho thu l bao
nhiu?
C) Quyt nh u t ca bn s ra sao nu bn c thm
la chn u t chng khon vi sut sinh li
15%/nm?

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V d 1.4

Xt mt d n c ngn lu nh trong bng:


Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
Ngn lu rng -700 540 500 50 150 -550

6,000
IRR = 2,93% hay 11,76%? 4,000 IRR1 = 2,93% IRR2 = 11,76%
2,64326
2,000

-
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
(2,000)

(4,000)

(6,000)

(8,000)

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1.4. Li sut n, li sut kp

Li n (simple interest): li ch c tnh trn khon u


t ban u
Gi tr tng lai (future value) ca khon u t PV sau n
nm, vi li sut n r l: FV= PV(1 + n*r)
Li tch hp (li kp, compound interest): mi khon thanh
ton c ti u t hng li trong nhng thi k k
tip
Gi tr tng lai (future value) ca khon u t PV sau n
nm, vi li sut tch hp r l: FV= PV(1 + r)n
Li tch hp theo nhiu k trong nm: khon u t PV
vi li sut r mi nm v c tch hp m ln mt nm th
cui nm s t gi tr FV = PV(1+r/m)m

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V d 1.5
Ngn hng A v B cng huy ng tin gi tit
kim vi li sut [danh ngha] c cng b l
1% mt thng. Tuy nhin chnh sch tr li ca
hai ngn hng ny khc nhau, c th:
Ngn hng A: tr li cng vi vn gc mt ln
khi o hn.
Ngnhng B: tr li nh k hng thng, vn
gc tr khi o hn.
Mt khch hng cn gi 100 triu ng k hn 6
thng, tnh tng s tin d kin nhn c khi
o hn. Nn gi ngn hng no c li nht?

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Li kp vi k tnh li khc nhau
Khon u t 1 triu ng, k hn 5 nm, sut sinh li 10%/nm.

K tr li S tin sau 5 nm Cng thc tng qut:


Khon u t P, k
10%
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hn n nm, sut sinh
Hng nm (1 ln/1 nm) 1 * 1 1,611
1 li r, m k tr li/1
25 nm:
10%
Bn nin (2 ln/1 nm) 1 * 1 1,629 mn
2 r
FVn P * 1
45 m
Hng qu (4 ln/1 nm) 10%
1 * 1 1,639
4
125
10% Li kp lin tc
Hng thng (12 ln/1 nm) 1 * 1 1,645
12 (m )
525 FVn P * e r n
Hng tun (52 ln/1 nm) 10%
1 * 1 1,648 (e 2,71828)
52
3605
10%
Hng ngy (360 ln/1 nm) 1 * 1 1,649
360
Cc nh ngha li sut

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Li sut danh ngha v li sut thc

Lm pht d kin cng cao, nh u t cng i hi sut sinh li ln hn


cho nhng khon thanh ton tr

i t l lm pht
rt li sut thc
r li sut danh ngha

(1+r) = (1+i) (1+rt) Irving FISHER (1930)

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V d 1.6. Pht hnh tn phiu
Ngy 1/10/2015, Kho bc nh nc pht hnh tn phiu kho
bc k hn 91 ngy, o hn ngy 31/12/2015. Mnh gi
100.000.000 VND (mt trm triu ng).
a. Nu li sut trng thu l 10%/nm th gi tn phiu kho
bc bn ra ti thi im pht hnh l bao nhiu?
b. Ngy 1/11/2015, mt ngi mua li tn phiu ny trn th
trng vi gi 97.7504VND. i vi nh u t ny, nu
gi tn phiu n khi o hn th li sut n khi o hn
ca tn phiu ny l bao nhiu?

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2- Cc cng thc tnh

2.1. Ngn lu u
2.2. Ngn lu u v hn
2.3. Ngn lu tng u
2.4. Ngn lu tng u v hn

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2.1. Gi tr hin ti ca ngn lu u

PV CF CF CF CF CF

t=0 1 2 3 4 n Thi gian

1 1
PV = CF . (1 - )
r (1+r)n

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Gi tr tng lai

CF CF CF CF CF FVn

t=0 1 2 3 4 n Thi gian

1
FVn = CF . .((1+r)n 1)
r

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2.2. Gi tr hin ti ca ngn lu u v hn

PV CF CF CF CF CF ...

Thi gian
t=0 1 2 3 4 n

CF
PV =
r

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2.3. Gi tr hin ti ca ngn lu tng u vi t l
g (trong sut chit khu r > g )

PV CF CF(1+g) CF (1+g)2 CF (1+g)n-1

t=0 1 2 3 4 n Thi gian

1 (1+g)n
PV = CF . (1 - )
r-g (1+r)n

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2.4. Gi tr hin ti ca ngn lu
tng u v hn vi t l g ( r > g )

PV CF CF (1+g) CF(1+g)2 CF (1+g)n-1

Thi gian
t=0 1 2 3 4 n

PV = CF
r-g

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Lch n vay vi n gc tr u
Vay 2 triu USD, k hn 6 nm, li sut 6%/nm, li tr hng nm,
n gc tr u hng nm.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

D n u k 2,000,000 1,666,667 1,333,333 1,000,000 666,667 333,333

Gii ngn n 2,000,000

Tr li vay 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

Tr n gc 333,333 333,333 333,333 333,333 333,333 333,333

Tr li v n gc 453,333 433,333 413,333 393,333 373,333 353,333

D n cui k 2,000,000 1,666,667 1,333,333 1,000,000 666,667 333,333 0

Ngn lu n 2,000,000 -453,333 -433,333 -413,333 -393,333 -373,333 -353,333

Li sut 6.0%
Lch n vay vi n gc v li tr u
Vay 2 triu USD, k hn 6 nm, li sut 6%/nm, li tr hng nm,
n gc v li tr u hng nm.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

D n u k 2,000,000 1,713,275 1,409,346 1,087,181 745,687 383,703

Gii ngn n 2,000,000

Tr li vay 120,000 102,796 84,561 65,231 44,741 23,022

Tr n gc 286,725 303,929 322,164 341,494 361,984 383,703

Tr li v n gc 406,725 406,725 406,725 406,725 406,725 406,725

D n cui k 2,000,000 1,713,275 1,409,346 1,087,181 745,687 383,703 0

Ngn lu n 2,000,000 -406,725 -406,725 -406,725 -406,725 -406,725 -406,725

Li sut 6.0%
V d 2.1: Mua nh tr gp
Bn nh mua mt cn h chung c An Bnh, gi 1,6
t VND. Hin ti bn c c 600 triu VND. Ngn
hng Vietcombank ng cho bn vay 1 t, li sut
12%/nm, li v vn tr u vo cui k trong vng 10
nm.
a) Nh vy mi nm bn phi tr bao nhiu tin li v vn
cho ngn hng?
b) Gi s bn tha thun tr u li v vn hng thng th
mi thng bn phi tr bao nhiu?
c) Nu mi thng bn tit kim c 10 triu VND tr
n th bn c th c ngn hng cho vay bao nhiu
tin?
V d 2.2: Bo him nhn th
31 thng 12 nm 2015, hp ng bo him nhn th ca
ng Th kt thc. ng Th c hai la chn nh sau:
1- kt thc hp ng rt vn : ngi c bo him
nhn ngay khon tin 760 triu VND ;
2 - th hng li tc trn i : ngi c bo him s
nhn hng nm, k t 31/12/2016 cho ti lc qua i,
mt khon tin l 72 triu VND.

Nu sut chit khu thch hp l 8%, tui th k vng ti


thiu phi l bao nhiu th ng Th thy cch th hai c
li hn cch th nht?

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V d 2.3: Cho con i hc
Anh ch Tho Dn c mt cu con trai ang hc lp 7.
Anh ch mong mun chun b tin cu con trai c th
yn tm cho 3 nm u hc i hc. c tnh chi ph
hc i hc trong nc ti thiu l 4,5 triu VND/thng
(tin hc v sinh hot ph, tnh theo gi c nh nm
2021). Anh ch nh tit kim 5 nm na c mt
khon 162 triu VND cho con trai. Li sut tit kim n
nh mc 10%/nm. Vy mi thng anh ch Tho
Dn phi b tit kim c bao nhiu mi cho con i
hc?

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Gii thiu mt s hm Excel ti chnh

Hm FV, PV
FV(rate,nper,pmt,[pv],[type])
PV(rate, nper, pmt, [fv], [type])
Hm PMT, RATE, NPER
PMT(rate, nper, pv, [fv], [type])
RATE(nper, pmt, pv, [fv], [type], [guess])
NPER(rate,pmt,pv,[fv],[type])
Hm NPV, IRR
NPV(rate,value1,[value2],...)
IRR(values, [guess])
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