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FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY

In common usage, the word probability is used to mean the chance that a
particular event (or set of events) will occur expressed on a linear scale from 0
(impossibility) to 1 (certainty), also expressed as a percentage between 0 and
100%. In this lesson we will discuss theoretical probability and empirical probability.

Let's start out with an example:

A quarter is tossed. It is equally likely to land heads up or tails up.

An occurrence for which the outcome is uncertain is called an experiment. The set
of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called sample space and is usually
denoted with a capital S.

The sample space for the quarter-tossing experiment is S = { H, T },


where H symbolizes "lands heads up" and Tstands for "lands tails up."

Events are subsets of the sample space S. We denote an event by capital E.

The subset E = { H } is the event of the quarter landing heads up and E


= { T } is the event of the quarter landing tails up.

Theoretical Probability

Theoretical probability applies to situations in which the sample space


only contains equally likely outcomes all of which are known, like in the
quarter-tossing experiment above. Heads up and tails up are equally
likely and we know that it will be either one or the other. Theoretical
probability applies to many games of chance, including roulette, cards,
dice rolling, and lotteries.

Computing Theoretical Probability

Let's use the formula for the quarter-tossing experiment.

The probability of the quarter landing heads up

is

The probability of the quarter landing tails up

is
NOTE: The sum of the theoretical probabilities of all
possible outcomes in the sample space equals 1.

Empirical Probability

Empirical probability applies to situations in which we observe how


frequently an even occurs.

Computing Empirical Probability

Example 1:

You are dealt one card from a standard 52-card deck. Find the
probability of being dealt

a. a queen

b. a diamond

c. a queen of diamonds

d. a black card

e. a black king

First of all, let's look at a picture of a standard 52-card deck:


Please note that a standard 52-card deck has 13 spades, 13
hearts, 13 diamonds, and 13 clubs!

Since we are told that the deck contains 52 cards, the


number of outcomes in the sample space is ,
which will be used as the denominator of each probability
fraction.

a. Let's find the event of being dealt a queen. There are


four queens in the deck. See picture above. Therefore, this
event can occur in 4 different ways, that is, .

b. Let's find the event of being dealt a diamond. There are


thirteen diamonds in the deck. See picture
above. Therefore, this event can occur in 13 different ways,
that is, .

c. Let's find the event of being dealt a queen of


diamonds. There is only one card in the deck that is a
queen of diamonds . See picture above. Therefore, this
event can occur in exactly 1 way, that is, .

d. Let's find the event of being dealt a black card. There


are twenty-six black cards in the deck. See picture
above. Therefore, this event can occur in 26 different ways,
that is, .
e. Let's find the event of being dealt a black king. There
are two black kings in the deck. See picture
above. Therefore, this event can occur in 2 different ways,
that is, .

Example 2:

The U.S. Census Bureau claims that there are 69.2 million
individuals over age 18 in the U.S. who have never been
married. Find the empirical probability of selecting a never
married person from the U.S. population of 235.8 million.

The empirical probability of selecting a never married person


from the U.S. population is approximately 0.29.

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