To: Interested parties

From: Christine Matthews, President, Bellwether Research & Consulting

Re: Highlights from a survey of Pennsylvania Republican primary voters
Date: Oct. 3, 2017

Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) likely Republican primary voters disapprove of the job Congress is doing
including a 57% majority who strongly disapprove, according to our recent survey of 600 likely
Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania.

A remarkable 86% of seniors and 84% of men are unhappy with the job the Republican-controlled
Congress is doing.

This is a significant red flag for Rep. Lou Barletta, a four-term Member of Congress, who is seeking
a promotion to the U.S. Senate in a crowded GOP primary.

While the congressman is known in his home district, most Republicans (59%) in the state have not
heard of Rep. Barletta. Though his immigration views are well-known to his constituents, his
hardline stance is out of sync with primary voters who overwhelmingly want to find a place for
Dreamers in our country:

We asked GOP voters: You may have heard of Dreamers, a name for the 800,000 young people who were
brought to America illegally when they were young children. Which of the following do you think in the best plan to fix
this situation?

51% They should be allowed to stay and become citizens if they meet certain
requirements.

33% They should be allowed to stay and obtain legal status, but not citizenship,
if they meet certain requirements.

12% They should be deported.

4% Undecided

Rep. Barletta has condemned the presidents plan to help Dreamers; he also recently introduced a
bill to deny Dreamers the right to receive work permits.

More troubling for Barletta: GOP voters in the crucial Philadelphia suburbs are even less supportive
of deporting Dreamers (8%) than voters statewide. Its a bad spot for Rep. Barletta to be in there: an
immigration hard-liner tied at the hip to President Trump.

Voters are largely unaware of the other Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, including the two
state representatives in the race. No candidate besides Barletta has more than 20% name
identification statewide.

Not surprisingly, 60% of voters say they are undecided in the U.S. Senate primary contest. Based on
name identification, Barletta leads at 22% and the remaining candidates are in the low single-digits.
GOP voters are also largely undecided (68%) in the race for governor, with Scott Wagner leading
Paul Mango by a 23%-10% margin.

It seems likely that President Trump will endorse Rep. Barletta to return the favor for his early
endorsement. However, a plurality (49%) of primary voters say this would make no difference to
them and 6% say it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate 10% in the Philly suburbs.
While 49% of non-college Republican voters say the Presidents endorsement will make them more-
likely to support a candidate, just 38% of college-educated voters (33% of college women) say it will.

Meanwhile, 65% of Republican voters agree with GOP Senate candidate Paul Addis that the
Republican party has lost its way, while 91% agree with Addis that America, as a world leader, must play an
active role in international affairs to ensure peace and stability. Republican voters also strongly respond to
Addis background as a political outsider and successful energy company executive who wants to
disrupt the Senate.

Bellwether Research conducted a telephone survey September 20-24, 2017 among a random sample
of 600 likely Republican primary voters and newly-registered Republican voters on behalf of the
Paul Addis for Senate campaign. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4% in 95 of 100 cases.

Bellwether Research & Consulting is based in Alexandria, Virginia. Clients have included former Indiana Governor
Mitch Daniels and Ohio Governor John Kasichs 2016 presidential campaign. Christine worked on races with the
National Republican Senatorial Committees independent expenditure campaigns in 2016 and 2014 and has
conducted extensive research among swing women voters for America Risings Womens Research Initiative.