Professional Documents
Culture Documents
August 2010
Prepared by:
Center for Opinion Research
Floyd Institute for Public Policy
Franklin & Marshall College
BERWOOD A. YOST
DIRECTOR, FLOYD INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY
DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH
HEAD METHODOLOGIST, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL
G. TERRY MADONNA
DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS
DIRECTOR, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL
ANGELA N. KNITTLE
SENIOR PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH
PROJECT MANAGER, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL
KAY K. HUEBNER
PROGRAMMER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................... 2
KEY FINDINGS................................................................................................................................... 4
US SENATE RACE .............................................................................................................................. 4
GOVERNOR’S RACE ............................................................................................................................ 6
THE ELECTORAL CONTEXT IN PENNSYLVANIA .................................................................................. 6
TABLE A-1 – SENATE CHOICE DEMOGRAPHICS .................................................................... 8
TABLE A-2 – GOVERNOR CHOICE DEMOGRAPHICS ............................................................ 9
MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT ........................................................................................... 10
Methodology
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of
interviews conducted August 16-23, 2010. The interviews were conducted at the
Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of
the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and
Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent
the responses of 577 adult residents of Pennsylvania, including 485 registered adults
refused to identify party). Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using
random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each
household. Survey results were weighted (age, education, race, region, and gender)
The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.1 percentage points. The sample
error for registered adults is +/- 4.4 percentage points and is slightly higher for
registered Democrats (+/- 6.6 percentage points) and registered Republicans (+/- 6.9
2
percentage points). The subsample of likely voters (n=377) has a sample error of +/-
In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-
sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most.
participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the
product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported
behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents
The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the
whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.
3
Key Findings
The August 2010 Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvania residents
finds that the candidates for US senate and governor have become better known
since the May primary campaigns, yet sizable portions of the electorate have no
preferred candidates in either race. In the senate race, Repulican Pat Toomey leads
Democrat Joe Sestak by three points among registered adults and by nine points
among those most likely to vote. Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan
Onorato in the race for governor by one point among registered adults and by 11
points among those most likely to vote. In both races, nearly two in five voters
remain undecided.
US Senate Race
In the Pennsylvania US senate race, Republican Pat Toomey leads Democrat
Joe Sestak by three points among registered adults (31% to 28% with 38%
undecided) and by nine points among those most likely to vote (40% to 31% and
26% undecided). Toomey’s lead over Sestak has changed little among registered
voters since May. Toomey has an advantage among men, older voters, whites, and
Protestants, and he also leads in most regions of the state (see Table A-1).
Interestingly, two thirds (66%) of respondents who voted for John McCain in 2008
plan to vote for Pat Toomey, while only half (49%) of those who voted for President
about the president and the Democratic majority in Congress. About three in five
4
(56%) Toomey voters say their vote is mainly a vote against the president, while the
same proportion of Sestak voters (57%) says their vote is mainly a vote in support of
the president.
Sestak’s favorable ratings have increased from 17% to 23%, but so too have
his unfavorable ratings, rising from 12% to 25%. One in three (35%) registered
adults say they still do not know enough about the candidate to have formed an
Toomey’s favorable ratings have also increased, rising from 16% to 25%
favorable. His unfavorable ratings have risen from 9% to 20%. Only one in three
(36%) adults does not know enough about Toomey to have an opinion, which is
May 2010 28 29 5 38
Mar 2010 19 27 5 49
Feb 2010 22 25 6 47
Jan 2010 16 28 5 51
Note: Chart displays registered voters.
5
Governor’s Race
Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato in the race for
governor by one point among registered adults (29% to 28% with 39% undecided)
and by 11 points among those most likely to vote (38% to 27% with 31%
undecided). Corbett has an advantage among men, among older voters, whites, and
More voters view Tom Corbett favorably than unfavorably (27% to 15%)
while two in five (40%) have not heard enough about him to form an opinion. Dan
Onorato is also viewed more favorably than unfavorably (22% to 11%), but he is
seats held by Republicans. Polling in the 2006 campaign showed positive electoral
than they did during the 2006 election cycle. Pessimism about the direction of the
state is greater, job performance ratings for the incumbent governor are much lower,
in party identification and particularly voter interest has shrunk (see Table 1). While
open state-wide races are often competitive in Pennsylvania, these indicators create a
6
context where incumbent office holders will also need to be wary, particularly
Democrats.
Only 37 percent of Democrats fall into the most likely to vote category compared to
45 percent of Republicans. This, for example, gives the Republicans a six point
advantage on the generic ballot question (41% to 35%) when only likely voters are
considered. Another example of the gap in partisan enthusiasm: only one third (35%)
of those who voted for Obama in 2008 are in the most likely to vote category versus
August August
2006 2010
Taxes
Most important problem Economy
Economy
Generic ballot +7 D +4 D
(Democrat % - Republican %)
Party Identification +6 D +4 D
(Democrat % - Republican %)
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Table A-1 – Senate Choice Demographics
If the 2010 election for U.S. SENATOR were being held today and the candidates included (rotated)
Joe Sestak, the Democrat, and Pat Toomey, the Republican, would you vote for Joe Sestak, Pat
Toomey, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote? (485 registered respondents)
8
Table A-2 – Governor Choice Demographics
If the 2010 election for GOVERNOR were being held today and the candidates included (rotated) Tom
Corbett, the Republican, and Dan Onorato, the Democrat, would you vote for Tom Corbett, Dan
Onorato, or aren't you sure how you would vote? (485 registered respondents)
9
Marginal Frequency Report
Responses may not total 100% due to rounding.
RightDir. All in all, do you think things in PENNSYLVANIA are generally headed in the
RIGHT DIRECTION, or do you feel that things are off on the WRONG TRACK?
10
REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you CURRENTLY
REGISTERED to vote at your present address?
84% Yes
16% No
42% Republican
46% Democrat
9% Independent
1% Something else
1% Don’t know
IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today. Is your
opinion of [FILL name] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough
about [FILL name] to have an opinion? (485 registered respondents) (rotated)
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Strongly and somewhat favorable and strongly and somewhat unfavorable combined:
Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election for governor and congress in November,
however, many other people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in
the November election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances fifty-
fifty you will vote, OR don't you think that you will vote in the November election? (485
registered respondents)
Will Chances
Certain to Don’t think
probably 50-50 will Don’t know
vote will vote
vote vote
Aug 2010 66% 16% 13% 5% 0%
Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you?
Would you say that you are…very much interested, somewhat interested or not very
interested in the 2010 elections? (485 registered respondents)
12
Mid_Term. When it comes to elections for governor, do you always vote, do you usually
vote, do you only sometimes vote, or do you rarely vote? (485 registered respondents)
Sometimes
Always vote Usually vote Rarely vote Don’t know
vote
Aug 2010 58% 20% 10% 11% 1%
Vot06. Did you vote in the last election for governor in Pennsylvania in 2006, or not? (485
registered respondents)
76% Yes
22% No
2% Do not know
Vot08. Did you vote in the last presidential election in 2008, or not? (485 registered
respondents)
92% Yes
8% No
Vot08pref. Did you vote for Barack Obama, John McCain, or some other candidate in 2008?
(485 registered respondents who voted in 2008 presidential election)
51% Obama
42% McCain
7% Other
SenSeT. If the 2010 election for U.S. SENATOR were being held today and the candidates
included (rotated) Joe Sestak, the Democrat, and Pat Toomey, the Republican, would you
vote for Joe Sestak, Pat Toomey, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would
vote? (485 registered respondents)
Cert_Sen. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill] in the election, or are you still
making up your mind? (280 registered respondents with vote choice)
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Lean_Sen. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Pat Toomey, Joe Sestak, or are you
leaning toward some other candidate? (188 registered undecided respondents)
Iss_Sen. What will be the single MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE in your vote for U.S. Senate
this year? (485 registered respondents)
WhyPT Would you say your choice of Pat Toomey is mainly a vote against President
Obama and the Democrats in congress, or not? (169 respondents voting or leaning toward
Toomey)
56% Yes
40% No
4% Do not know
WhyJS Would you say your choice of Joe Sestak is mainly a vote to support President
Obama and the Democrats in congress, or not? (163 respondents voting or leaning toward
Sestak)
57% Yes
41% No
2% Do not know
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Vote_Gov. If the 2010 election for GOVERNOR were being held today and the candidates
included (rotated) Tom Corbett, the Republican, and Dan Onorato, the Democrat, would you
vote for Tom Corbett, Dan Onorato, or aren't you sure how you would vote? (485 registered
respondents)
Cert_Gov. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill Gov] in the election, or are
you still making up your mind? (271 registered respondents with vote choice)
Lean_Gov. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Tom Corbett, Dan Onorato, or are you
leaning toward some other candidate? (194 registered undecided respondents)
Iss_Gov. What will be the single MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE in your vote for governor this
year? (485 registered respondents)
15
GenBalH. If the 2010 elections for the United States House of Representatives were being
held today, would you vote for the (rotated) Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic
Party’s candidate for the House in your district? (485 registered respondents)
Democratic Republican
Other Don’t
Party’s Party’s
Candidate know
Candidate Candidate
Aug 2010 39% 35% 0% 25%
May 2010 38% 39% 0% 23%
Oct 2009 37% 34% 2% 27%
RatePres. How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
(485 registered respondents)
RateGov. How would you rate the way that Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (485
registered respondents)
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MIP_YF. What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM facing YOU and YOUR
FAMILY TODAY?
Aug
2010
28% Personal finances, cost of living, unemployment
25% Economy, in general
12% Healthcare, insurance
9% Taxes
5% Retirement
2% Education, schools
2% Government, politicians
1% Crime, drugs, violence
1% Environment, climate change
1% Gasoline/oil prices, energy
1% Housing, real estate
1% Iraq War
1% Personal family issues
1% Personal illness, health, old age
1% Terrorism, national security, foreign policy
1% Values, morals, religion
1% Nothing
1% Other
6% Don’t know
Gov. Do you think that the problems facing you and your family can be solved with the help
of the government, or are these problems beyond what you think the government can do?
Beyond what
With the help of
the government Don’t know
government
can do
Aug 2010 59% 33% 9%
Aug 2008 69% 25% 6%
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FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would
you say that YOU and YOUR FAMILY are better off, worse off, or about the same financially
as you were a year ago?
About the
Better off Worse off Don’t know
same
Aug 2010 13% 33% 54% 1%
May 2010 14% 39% 46% 1%
Mar 2010 13% 36% 51% 0%
Feb 2010 13% 41% 46% 0%
Jan 2010 10% 40% 50% 0%
Oct 2009 8% 36% 55% 1%
Aug 2009 9% 39% 52% 0%
Jun 2009 11% 43% 45% 1%
Mar 2009 11% 36% 53% 0%
Feb 2009 10% 44% 46% 0%
Oct 2008* 14% 44% 42% 0%
Sep 2008* 12% 40% 47% 0%
Aug 2008* 16% 37% 46% 1%
Feb 2008* 20% 29% 51% 0%
Jan 2008* 17% 25% 57% 1%
Nov 2005 20% 28% 51% 1%
Sep 2005 17% 36% 47% 0%
Jun 2005 24% 24% 52% 0%
Mar 2005 21% 28% 51% 1%
Nov 2003 17% 29% 53% 1%
Apr 2003 16% 30% 54% 0%
Sep 2002* 25% 26% 47% 1%
Jun 2002* 29% 20% 50% 1%
Jul 1999 31% 16% 52% 1%
Jul 1998 31% 16% 52% 1%
Mar 1998 31% 16% 52% 1%
Jul 1996 21% 22% 56% 1%
Feb 1996 21% 21% 57% 1%
Apr 1995 26% 21% 52% 1%
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FinFut. Now looking AHEAD, do you think that A YEAR FROM NOW, YOU and YOUR
FAMILY will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you
are now?
About the
Better off Worse off Don’t know
same
Aug 2010 24% 15% 54% 7%
May 2010 29% 17% 49% 5%
Mar 2010 27% 17% 50% 6%
Feb 2010 28% 18% 47% 7%
Jan 2010 27% 17% 49% 7%
Oct 2009 31% 14% 50% 5%
Aug 2009 31% 19% 47% 3%
Jun 2009 32% 21% 41% 6%
Mar 2009 27% 12% 55% 6%
Feb 2009 29% 19% 45% 7%
Oct 2008* 33% 14% 40% 14%
Sep 2008* 25% 18% 42% 15%
Aug 2008* 28% 15% 45% 12%
Nov 2005 29% 20% 48% 3%
Sep 2005 27% 23% 45% 5%
Jun 2005 32% 15% 48% 5%
Mar 2005 31% 20% 45% 4%
Nov 2003 33% 13% 49% 5%
Apr 2003 27% 17% 51% 5%
Sep 2002* 38% 8% 43% 11%
Jun 2002* 35% 6% 49% 10%
Jul 1999 38% 8% 50% 4%
Jul 1998 41% 9% 45% 5%
Mar 1998 39% 7% 50% 4%
Jul 1996 24% 12% 54% 10%
Feb 1996 29% 16% 49% 6%
Apr 1995 37% 12% 44% 7%
RespEcon. Who do you feel is most responsible for the country’s current economic situation:
former President Bush, President Obama, are both equally to blame or is no one really to
blame?
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IntHard. Now I’m going to ask you about various events that happen to people. I’m interested
in those that happened to you at any point during the last 12 months, that is since [fill one
year ago’s date]. Did any of the following hardships happen to you in the last 12 months?
(rotated)
Hard_ly. How did you personally benefit from national economic recovery efforts? (79
respondents who benefited from recovery efforts)
Oct Aug
2009 2010
42% 22% Stimulus check
5% 21% Unemployment funds, Cobra extensions
7% 8% First-time homebuyer credit
4% 4% Tax rebate, decrease in taxes
-- 4% Job creation
7% 3% Social security payment increase
1% 3% Cash for Clunkers
2% 2% Helped companies so helped investments
2% 2% Energy-efficiency rebates/tax credits
1% 2% Road, infrastructure improvements
1% 0% Decrease in property taxes
2% 0% Nothing
23% 22% Other
8% 6% Don’t know
Percentages may total more than 100% because multiple responses were accepted.
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DEMO I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only.
CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?)
28% Central
22% Southeast
13% Northeast
11% Southwest
8% Philadelphia
9% Northwest
9% Allegheny
RESD. How many years have you lived at your current residence?
15.7 Mean
9% 18-24
18% 25-34
13% 35-44
24% 45-54
14% 55-64
22% 65 and older
EDUC. What was the highest grade level of schooling you have completed?
MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status, are you single, married, separated, divorced,
or a widower?
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IDEO. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a
conservative?
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PRTY1. Regardless of how you are registered, in politics, as of today, do you think of
yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION?
18% Yes
81% No
1% Do not know
15% Yes
85% No
2% Yes
98% No
RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background?
86% White
14% Non-white
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ABORT. Do you think that abortion should be...
REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not
affiliated with any religion?
33% Protestant
31% Catholic
18% Some other religion
17% Not affiliated with any religion
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BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not?
29% Yes
68% No
3% Do not know
Bible. Which of these statements comes closest to describing your feelings about the Bible?
NumA. Including yourself, how many adults 18 years of age or OLDER CURRENTLY live in
this household?
26% One
53% Two
14% Three
8% Four or more
WORK. Are you currently working FULL-time, PART-time, going to school, keeping house or
something else?
44% Full-time
16% Part-time
1% Going to school
7% Keeping house
7% Unemployed
6% Disabled
20% Retired
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INC1. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above
or below $50,000 per year?
48% Female
52% Male
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