California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

October 2017
 First Back-to-Back YTY Decline Since Last
August
California, Oct. 2017 Sales: 431,020 Units, +1.7% YTD, -3.4% YTY
700,000

600,000
Oct-16: Oct-17:
446,150 431,020
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 California Home Sales Increased in Oct
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Bay Area Sales Increases
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Southern California Home Sales Up
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
YoY % chg.
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Central Valley Sales Remain Positive
Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
YoY % chg.
30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 More Homes Sell Above the Half-Million Mark
When Compared to 2016
Oct-17 Oct-16
30%

23%
22%
20%
17% 16% 16%
16%
14% 14%
12%
10% 10% 9%
10% 9%
7%
3% 3%

0%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Sales Improve in Mid and High Priced Markets But
Decline in Lower Priced Segments
Sept 2017 (Year-to-Year)
30% 26.8%
21.4%
20%
8.4%
10% 6.2%
0.3% 0.1%
0%

-3.3%
-10%

-20%
-21.4%
-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 CA Median Price Continues to Grow YTY
California, October 2017: $546,430, -1.6% MTM, +6.1% YTY
P: May-07
$700,000 Oct-17:
$594,530
Oct-16: $546,430
$600,000 $515,170

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Home Price Appreciations Have
Moderated Since Mid 2013
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Price Per Square Foot Remains Near
Recent Peak
October 2017: $270, Up 0.1% MTM, Up 7.0% YTY
$400

$350 Oct-17:
Oct-16:
$270
$300 $252
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Sales Price -to-List Price Dips Below 100%
October 2017: 98.9%, Down 0.2% MTM, Up 0.6% YTY
Oct-16: Oct-17:
98.3% 98.9%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Inventory Declines Annually for the 15th
Consecutive Month
October 2016: 3.4 Months; October 2017: 3.0 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Supply Remains on a Downward Trend
October 2016: 3.4 Months; October 2017: 3.0 Months
Year-over-Year % Chg
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15% -11.5%

-20%

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions
12
10.4
10 9.4

8
6.1
6
4.7 4.8 4.6
3.7 3.6 3.7
4 3.1 3.4 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.0 2.7 3.1
3.2 3.3 3.0 3.4
2.4
2

Oct-17 Oct-16

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Supply Constraint across Most Prices,
but Most Obvious in the Lower End
October 2017
Active Listing
10%
1.7%
0%

-10%
-8.3% -8.6%
-12.1% -10.5% -10.5% -11.5%
-20%

-30%
-31.0%
-40%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Inventory Continued to Drop Across All
Regions
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0
3.6
3.0 3.4
2.0 1.9
1.0

0.0

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 Supply Saw Declines, Especially in Bay Area
September 2017

Sales Active Listings

10%

3% 3%
0%
0%
Year-to-Year % Chg

-5%
-10%

-14%
-20%
-21%

-30%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS