MEMORANDUM

TO: Major Donors and SuperPAC Directors

FROM: Rick Shaftan, Atlantic Media and Research @shaftan

RE: Survey, Alabama 11/18-21

DATE: 11/22/17

Atlantic Media and Research completed 623 surveys of Alabama

voters who had participated in both the 2014 and 2016 general
elections and said their chances of voting in the December 12th
special election for U.S. Senate were definite or very
likely. The theoretical margin of error is +/- 3.9 percent in
95 percent of cases at a 50 percent response level. All calls
were made by live operators to both landlines and cellphones
from our facilities in Rodanthe, North Carolina.

43 percent of respondents were reached on cellphones and 27

percent are identified on the voter file as being African-
American. The project was completed at the request of several
major SuperPAC donors.

SUMMARY

Republican Roy Moore holds a 43-40 lead over Democrat Doug Jones
under a worst case weighting scenario where younger voters
turn out at a level equal to that in the 2014 general election.
Moore led 43-37 in the raw data.

Both candidates have high negatives. Roy Moore has a favorable

rating of 31 percent and an unfavorable rating of 39 percent.
But Jones is also a net negative, with just 32 percent viewing
him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably.

These numbers are a bigger problem for Jones than Moore,

however. While 88 percent of Jones unfavorables are voting for
Moore, Jones is only able to win 75 percent of Moore
unfavorables, while Moore still holds 8 percent of their votes.
Moore also runs strongly with the 11 percent of voters who have
a mixed opinion of him, winning 71 percent among those voters.
By contrast, Jones gets only 43 percent of the 5 percent of
voters with a mixed opinion of him. Those with a mixed opinion
on Moore are essentially favorable.

While many voters continue to look at Moore with an open mind,

there is little room for Jones to grow outside of his Democratic
Party base because few conservative voters are abandoning Moore
in this very conservative state.

When asked to describe their personal ideology, 30 percent said

they were very liberal, somewhat liberal or moderate and
Jones was leading by 79-12 with these voters. But 55 percent of
voters said they were somewhat conservative, very
conservative or libertarian and Moore holds a 68-12 lead
there. Put another way, 9 percent of liberal and moderate
voters are undecided, versus 20 percent of conservative-leaning
voters. Thats a big problem for the man known as Abortion
Jones, who is personally a 10-54 net negative among this
majority group.

When we asked Jones favorables what they liked about their

candidate, 25 percent said he was honest, fair or moral, 15
percent said he was against Moore, 11 percent like his record as
a prosecutor, 9 percent that he was a Democrat, 9 percent like
him personally, 9 percent like his views, 4 percent say he is
for the people, 4 percent say he can bring Republicans and
Democrats together. 3 percent say he wants to help Alabama.

Among black Jones favorables, 33 percent call him honest, 12

percent like him personally, 12 percent mention his
prosecutorial record, 11 percent like his views, 7 percent like
that he is a Democrat, 7 percent say he is for the people, 4
percent say he is a bipartisan unifier.

Among non-black Jones favorables, 25 percent say he is anti-

Moore (not mentioned by blacks), 19 percent say he is honest, 11
percent like that he is a Democrat, 7 percent like views, 6
percent like him personally, 5 percent say he is a bipartisan
unifier, 4 percent say he wants to help Alabama.

With Jones unfavorables, 37 percent mention his pro-abortion

position, 33 percent dislike that he is a Democrat or Liberal, 7
percent say he is running a smear campaign against Moore, 6
percent dislike him personally, 6 percent dislike his views, 4
percent dislike that he is running against Moore, 2 percent call
him a liar.

With Moore favorables, 22 percent say he stands up for what he

believes, 21 percent like his Christian values, 8 percent like
that he is conservative, 8 percent mention that he is
Republican, 8 percent like his views, 7 percent say he is
fighting media lies, 5 percent call him honest, 4 percent say he
is pro-life, 2 percent call him a good man, 2 percent say he is
running against Jones.

Among those softer Moore supporters who have a mixed opinion of

him, 24 percent like that he is conservative, 22 percent mention
his Christian values, 17 percent like that he stands up for what
he believes, 17 percent mention that he is Republican, 6 percent
like his views.

With Moore unfavorables, 32 percent mention the allegations, 16

percent say he was thrown off the court twice, 9 percent dislike
him personally, 7 percent call him a hypocrite who uses God, 7
percent call him a liar, 5 percent say he is a zealot, extreme
or too conservative, 3 percent say he is a grandstander or
demagogue, 3 percent mention that he is Republican, 2 percent
dislike his record, 2 percent dislike his views on gay marriage.

Among those with a mixed opinion on Moore, 58 percent mention

the scandal, 8 percent that he was removed from the court, 6
percent say he is a zealot, 6 percent call him a liar and 5
percent a grandstander.

There is no gender gap in this race with Moore up by 3 with both

men and women. Those identified on the voter file as African-
American are voting 74-9 for Jones. Moore wins all others by
54-26. Jones leads 41-40 with voters under 65 while Moore holds
a solid 48-33 lead among those 65 and over.

UNDECIDED VOTERS

The remaining undecided voters lean right and represent low-

hanging fruit for the Moore campaign to pick up in the coming
weeks. 57 percent consider themselves conservative or
libertarian, a higher proportion than the electorate as a whole.
Moores unfavorable is (only) 34 percent with these voters
(Joness is 20 percent).
 CONCLUSION

The worst of the storm is over and Moore holds a lead that at
worst case scenario is three points. He retains a strong
following and even many of those concerned about the scandal are
voting for him anyway. Joness leftist agenda, including his
strong and passionate advocacy for late-term abortions, has
defined him as a radical extremist out of touch with Alabama
voters. Once Thanksgiving and the Iron Bowl are out of the way,
Alabamians will begin focusing on this race with scandal
allegations fading in the rear-view mirror. If Jones isnt
leading now, theres no way hes going to come back once the
race returns to issues. Alabama is just too conservative a
state to elect a radical pro-abortion extremist, even over a
controversial candidate hated by the national party.

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