ALPCHECK2

ALPINE MOBILITY CHECK STEP 2

AlpCheck2
A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia
Final Report

Date: November 2011

Main Authors: OMEGA consult Ltd.:

Cveto Gregorc, MSc Phys.

Robert Rupar, MSc Econ.

Miha Klun, BEcon.

pela eleznikar, MSc Env. Mgt.

Nina Jurei, BEng Geol.

Andreja Cundri, Ph.D.

Contributions: OMEGA consult Ltd.:

Matja Oberan, BEcon.

Elvis Testen, BSc (Eng.)Transp.

Vera Bjelica, BBA

Rado Osredkar, BPol.Sc.

Grega Botjani, BE Comp.Sc.

A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

ALPCHECK2 CONSORTIUM

Leader Partner: VENETO

Veneto Region (Regional Secretariat for

Infrastructures - Logistics Unit)

Partner 1: RAVA

Regione Autonoma Valle d'Aosta - Direzione

servizi antincendio e di soccorso

Partner 2: CARINZIA

Carinthia Regional Government Administration

(Department 7 - Common Law and
Infrastructure)

Partner 3: TCI

TCI Rhling Transport Consulting

International

Partner 4: ERSAF

Ente Regionale per i Servizi all' Agricoltura e

alle Foreste:Regione Lombardia

Partner 5: VPA

Venice Port Authority

Partner 6: MATTM

Ministry of Environment, Sea and Land

Protection of Italy

Partner 7: OBB

Board of Building and Public Works within the

Bavarian Ministry of the Interior

Partner 8: CETE MED

A Technical Study and Engineering Centre

Partner 9: MSLO

Republic of Slovenia, Ministry of Transport,

Slovene Roads Agency
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................1
2 IMPLEMENTATION OF DISPERSION MODEL IN SLOVENIA ...........................................2
2.1 DISPERSION MODEL...................................................................................................................2
2.1.1 Presentation of SoundPlan air pollution modules .......................................................................2
2.1.2 Characteristics of pollutants........................................................................................................3
2.1.2.1 NO2 ........................................................................................................................................... 3
2.1.2.2 PM10 ........................................................................................................................................ 4
2.1.2.3 CO2 .......................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2 EXAMPLE OF DISPERSION CALCULATION ..................................................................................6
2.2.1 Input data.....................................................................................................................................6
2.2.1.1 Geographic data........................................................................................................................ 7
2.2.1.2 Pollutant emissions ................................................................................................................... 8
2.2.1.3 Meteorology data ...................................................................................................................... 9
2.2.2 Results in SoundPlan .................................................................................................................10
2.3 ESI AND DISPERSION ...............................................................................................................13
3 LITERATURE ................................................................................................................................17
A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

1 INTRODUCTION

AlpCheck2 is a continuation of the international project for the area of the Alpine region in the
framework of the INTERREG IIIB that finished in 2008. It is an international project with the
Slovenian participation. The main objectives of the project are modelling of traffic flows of heavy
goods vehicles in the Alpine region and impacts of these vehicles on the environment of the
Alpine region. Slovenia participates in both key stages.

Slovenian Roads Agency carries out activities of the following work packages:
WP4 - transport system for decision support: preparation of the transport model for the
Alpine area, simulation of future scenarios of supply and demand, obtaining data for
future road network;
WP5 - Environmental impact assessment: data acquisition and preparation, participation
in the implementation model for the assessment of environmental impacts.

In this report implementation of dispersion model in Slovenia (as part of WP5) is presented.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

2 IMPLEMENTATION OF DISPERSION MODEL IN SLOVENIA

2.1 DISPERSION MODEL

The methodology for calculating dispersion was obtained from the French partner. We have also
done our own research and literature review on dispersion, collected data and tested the
calculations with our test model. A more detailed overview of activities is given below.

A dispersion model is a mathematical simulation, which shows us how pollutants disperse in the
environment. Dispersion models are implemented by computer programs that solve
mathematical equations and algorithms that simulate the dispersion of pollutants. These models
are used to estimate or forecast the direction of the wind, concentration of pollutants or toxic
emissions from sources such as industrial plants, traffic or accidental chemical releases. Such
models are a useful tool for assessing the impacts on air quality.

There are quite a few dispersion programs sold, but they each have their limitations and
uncertainties. OMEGA consult calculates dispersion with the 7.0 SoundPlan Programme that
supports the modelling of air pollution dispersion, while the French partner uses ADMS
Programme. Both, Slovene and French models were tested and compared. The results of both
models (created with different software programmes) showed similar results, therefore we used
the 7.0 SoundPlan Programme for creating a dispersion model in Slovenia.

2.1.1 Presentation of SoundPlan air pollution modules

SoundPLAN is a software suite created by professionals in noise and air pollution engineering
for professionals working with noise and air pollution scenarios. The software specializes in
computer simulations of noise and air pollution situations. For air quality simulations,
SoundPLAN has many different models, ranging from Gauss models to complex hydraulic
flow and dispersion models. The software was tested on actual projects.

SoundPLAN enables efficiency at work by offering templates for graphics, tables and
spreadsheets, and by hosting all acoustics and air pollution relevant data in libraries that can be
shared between users. Importing and exporting data in various formats makes it easy to reuse
data from external sources. Many planning processes require calculations for noise emissions and
air pollution dispersion. SoundPLAN has a uniform software interface for both types of
calculations so it can be used in both areas of expertise.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

SoundPLAN offers three air pollution models, with 3 different approaches and 3 different levels
of precision. Typical air pollution dispersion questions can be answered using one or a
combination of these 3 methods.

Rough Screening with Gauss (TA Luft86). The Gauss-model of the old German
standard TA Luft86 is suitable for approximate calculations;
Rough Screening or Fine Screening with Austal2000. This model of the German
standard TA Luft 02 can as well be used for approximate studies as for fine screening
(diagnostic wind field, Lagrange dispersion model);
Fine-Screening with MISKAM. The established, validated and recommended model is
ideal for detailed studies, when air movements around buildings have a dominant
influence on the wind field (prognostic wind field, Eulerian dispersion model).

For our example dispersion was calculated with the method of Rough Screening or Fine
Screening with Austal2000, due to the size of observed test area.

In the year 2002 TA Luft 86 was replaced by the new standard TA Luft 02, which favours a
diagnostic wind field and a Lagrange model to calculate the air pollution dispersion. The
reference Model AUSTAL2000 was developed for the German Environmental Agency. Its
advantage is that it calculates a wind field, which can regard terrain up to an inclination of 20%.

The Austal2000 user interface is very poor, based on ASCII-input-textfiles and ASCII-output-
textfiles. The SoundPLAN interface is used instead, in order to work in a comfortable program
environment.

2.1.2 Characteristics of pollutants

The focus was on three most harmful pollutants from car exhausts: NO2, PM10 and CO2.

2.1.2.1 NO2

NO2 is generated primarily through emissions from combustion sources such as vehicles. NO2
and other nitrogen oxides have direct health impacts, such as respiratory damage and premature
death, and also contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone and fine particulates, two other
significant criteria air pollutants.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

There is evidence of positive and generally robust associations between ambient NO2
concentrations and risk of nonaccidental and cardiopulmonary mortality for short-term
exposures. For long-term exposures, science remains limited, making definitive conclusions
difficult. People who are likely to be more vulnerable to exposure to nitrogen oxides include
children, the elderly, people who already have respiratory problems, and people who spend much
time on and near busy roadways (including those in buildings near such roads).

The current Environmental Protection Agency's (US) standard is 100 micrograms per cubic
meter. The World Health Organization guideline is much lower, at 40 ug/m3, same as in the
Regulation on ambient air quality. The WHO also has a short-term, 1-hour guideline of 200
ug/m3 (source: WHO website, 2011).

2.1.2.2 PM10

PM affects more people than any other pollutant. The major components of PM are sulphate,
nitrates, ammonia, sodium chloride, carbon, mineral dust and water. It consists of a complex
mixture of solid and liquid particles of organic and inorganic substances suspended in the air. The
particles are identified according to their aerodynamic diameter, e.g. PM10 (particles with an
aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 m).

Particles can be carried over long distances by wind and then settle on ground or water. The
effects of this settling include: making lakes and streams acidic; changing the nutrient balance in
coastal waters and large river basins; depleting the nutrients in soil; damaging sensitive forests and
farm crops; and affecting the diversity of ecosystems

Particle pollution - especially fine particles - contains microscopic solids or liquid droplets that
are so small that they can get deep into the lungs and cause serious health problems. Numerous
scientific studies have linked particle pollution exposure to a variety of problems, including:
increased respiratory symptoms, such as irritation of the airways, coughing, or difficulty
breathing, for example;
decreased lung function;
aggravated asthma;
development of chronic bronchitis;
irregular heartbeat;
nonfatal heart attacks; and
premature death in people with heart or lung disease.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

People with heart or lung diseases, children and older adults are the most likely to be affected by
particle pollution exposure. However, even if you are healthy, you may experience temporary
symptoms from exposure to elevated levels of particle pollution.

The effects of PM on health occur at levels of exposure currently being experienced by most
urban populations. Chronic exposure to particles contributes to the risk of developing
cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as of lung cancer. The mortality in cities with high
levels of pollution exceeds that observed in relatively cleaner cities by 1520%.

2.1.2.3 CO2

Climate change or global warming impacts of transport are mainly caused by emissions of the
greenhouse gases CO2, N2O and CH4. Road transport contributes about one-fifth of the EU's
total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas. While emissions from other
sectors are generally falling, those from road transport have continued to increase since 1990.
Eager to tackle climate change, the European Commission has a comprehensive strategy
designed to help the EU reach its long-established objective of limiting average CO2 emissions
from new cars to 120 grams per km by 2012.

Climate change impacts have a special position in external cost assessment as:
climate change is a global issue so that the impact of emissions is not dependent on the
location of emissions;
greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have a long lifetime in the atmosphere so that present
emissions contribute to impacts in the distant future;
especially the long-term impacts of continued emissions of greenhouse gases are difficult
to predict but potentially catastrophic.

As mentioned in the report, regarding the WP4, CO 2 -emissions are not covered by the
Eurovignette Directive 2011 because of the global dimension of climate change. However, the
Commission explicitly announced in its proposal to reassess this position and possibly allow the
inclusion of a CO 2 -charging element in tolls at a later date, should progress in defining a
common fuel tax element related to climate change in the Energy Taxation Directive
2003/96/EC not be satisfactory. Until then Member States are prevented from including the
external costs of CO 2 -emissions into external-cost charges.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

2.2 EXAMPLE OF DISPERSION CALCULATION

The location for the calculation of air pollution dispersion from road exhausts was chosen
randomly, in an area only a few kilometres south west of the capital city. The representative
observed road is a motorway by-pass road with the speed limit of 130 km/h. The green square
represents the 3x3m observation area, which was considered for the calculation.

Figure 2.1: Location of the project (test area)

(Picture: OMEGA consult, 2011)

2.2.1 Input data

Prior to the calculation in SoundPlan with AUSTAL2000 method, it was necessary to prepare the
input data. Information on the geographical location of the project, pollutant emissions (CO2,
NOx and PM10) and meteorological data were needed as inputs for the calculation. The
settlements near the observed road were not considered due to the fact that this is a bypass road
and there aren't many houses nearby.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

2.2.1.1 Geographic data

The geographic data used for determining the calculation area were:
Calculation area size = 3x3 km,
Length of the motorway ( within the calculation area) = 3,259 km,
Slope of the terrain > 20%.

Soundplan only enables calculations on a 3x3 m area. Location of the area was randomly picked
outside the capital city. Figure 2.2 shows the image of the terrain as can be seen in SoundPlan.
Below is the motorway, blue cubes are buildings and houses and lifted part is a nearby gentle
slope.

Figure 2.2: Geographic data on the terrain as seen in SoundPlan

(Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

2.2.1.2 Pollutant emissions

In order to calculate dispersion pollutant emissions (PM, NOx and CO2) had to be determined.
For this purpose HBEFA methodology was used.

The Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA) provides emission factors for all
current vehicle categories (PC, LDV, HGV, urban buses, coaches and motor cycles), each divided
into different categories, for a wide variety of traffic situations. Emission factors for all regulated
and the most important non-regulated pollutants as well as fuel consumption and CO2 are
included. The Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA) was originally
developed on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agencies of Germany, Switzerland and
Austria, but is now widely used in other European countries as well as the JRC (Research Center
of the European Commission). Each road section of the core network has its own pollutant
traffic emissions. The data, which was used in HBEFA, are given in Tables below.

Table 2.1: Road technical data

Length of
Section Max allowed considered
Project name number Area LOS Road** speed[km/h] section [km]
AC2_1a4 0052 Urban Freeflow* MW-Nat. 130 3,259
AC2_1a4 0652 Urban Freeflow MW-Nat. 130 3,259
* free flowing conditions, low and steady traffic flow.
** type of road; MW-Nat is a motorway
2x2 lanes, grade separated

Table 2.2: Traffic AADT in 2008

vv1- personal vv3 - vv4 - vv4t-

Project Year Section number vehicles buses LGV HGV Total
AC2_1a4 2008 0052 21.961 188 2.528 3.375 28.052
AC2_1a4 2008 0652 21.961 188 2.528 3.375 28.052

The Austrian vehicle fleet is used in the HBEFA methodology. Using the information in Tables
2.1 and 2.2 emissions on the road section were calculated.

Table 2.3: Pollutant emissions on road sections 0052 and 0652

Section CO2(total) [g/km] NOx [g/km] PM [g/km]

0052 693.3795,2 34.070,8 1.341,9
0652 693.3795,2 34.070,8 1.341,9

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

2.2.1.3 Meteorology data

Meteorology data was obtained from the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for
the period of 10 years. Data contain information on the observation year, speed of the wind,
direction of the wind and the average number of hours the wind blew in certain direction at
certain speed in the territory of the observed area. Data on the wind measurements above 10 m
could not be obtained.

Table 2.4: Average number of hours of wind blowing at a certain speed and in certain
direction (10-year cumulative data)

Direction angle []
Wind speed [m/s] 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
v <= 3.0 21309 20130 12103 9126 6252 7268 8959 5031 3274 4943 8210 12537
3.0 < v <= 6.0 1656 3133 4109 2830 2104 1463 3890 5117 2755 1109 1500 1108
6.0 < v <= 9.0 234 859 1254 84 36 43 1412 2405 545 139 508 222
9.0 < v <= 12.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12.0 < v <= 15.0 6 29 7 0 0 2 28 32 0 3 41 16
15.0 < v <= 18.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0

As shown in the wind rose in Figure 2.3, the most commonly wind blew at a speed below 3 m/s
and in the direction from 15 to 80 degrees, averaging at 45 degrees. Very strong winds above 12.0
m/s or higher were not recorded in the 10 year period.

Figure 2.3: Wind Rose (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

All described data was imported in the SoundPlan programme and calculated with the
AUSTAL2000 method.

2.2.2 Results in SoundPlan

Graphical presentations of the results are given separately for each pollutant.

Figure 2.4: Mean year concentration for CO2

(Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

Figure 2.4 shows the result of the dispersion model in the project area for mean yearly
concentration of CO2. SoundPlan calculated that very high levels of CO2 are present on or
directly by the observed road. Since the pollutant is relatively heavy it is not dispersed widely
away from the road. The highest CO2 concentrations occur very close to the exhaust area. The
green belt shows the area where smaller concentrations of CO2 can be detected, whereas the light
yellow area indicates CO2 dispersion with a concentration below 4500 g/m3.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

Figure 2.5: Mean year concentration for PM10

(Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

Figure 2.5 shows the result of the dispersion model in the project area for mean yearly
concentration of PM10. SoundPlan demonstrates that the highest concentrations of PM10 occur in
the direct vicinity of the road. The rest is dispersed in the surrounding area PM10 particles are not
as heavy as CO2, therefore they are more easily dispersed. Also the level of concentration is much
lower than that of CO2 as we see from the legend. Despite the low concentration of PM10
particles in g/m3, they are dispersed widely in the area (marked yellow). However, even small
amounts of this pollutant can be harmful to human health.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

Figure 2.6: Mean year concentration for NOx

(Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

Figure 2.6 shows the result of the dispersion model in the project area for mean yearly
concentration of NOX. SoundPlan demonstrates that like with the other pollutants, the highest
concentrations of NOX occur on or by the road. The rest is dispersed in the surrounding area.
NOX particles are not as heavy as CO2, therefore they are more easily dispersed. However, they
are also more harmful for the health. NOX is dispersed a bit more widely than PM10. NOX
particles do not present a direct threat to the local inhabitants living by the motorway in the sense
that only minimum amounts reach the nearest nearby houses.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

2.3 ESI AND DISPERSION

In order to be able to evaluate the effects of dispersion on the environment, we joined two
graphic layers on the example of Slovenia. Firstly we covered the country with the environmental
sensitivity index (ESI) - hexagon grid (1m sides), which determines the sensitivity of certain areas
based on social and environmental indicators. The results of dispersion for the observed area
from SoundPlan were applied to ESI results (Figure 2.7) in order to determine the degree of
sensitivity of the dispersed area.

Figure 2.7: Observed dispersion and ESI results (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

ESI sensitivity classes were set according to class limits, which are represented by the calculated
ESI values:
ESI Sensitivity classes
1 resilient area 0-61
2 less sensitive area 62-242
3 sensitive area 243-923
4 very sensitive area 924-2755
5 extremely sensitive area 2756-11649

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

The Regulation on ambient air quality (Official Journal of RS, nr.9/2011) determines the limit
value, for pollutants PM10 and NO2, within which they do not pose a direct threat to human
health and this is at 40 g/m3. The limit for CO2 is not determined, therefore following results
include analysis for NO2 and PM10.

The result of NOX dispersion from SoundPlan was converted into NO2 and attributed limit
values 40 g/m3 (according to the Regulation). The same procedure was used for PM10 pollutant.
Conversion from NOX to NO2 was made in the SoundPlan programme using this formula:

[NO2] = [NOX] * (103 / ([NOX]+130)+0,005)

Figure 2.8: Result of NO2 dispersion in the observed area

(Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

The legend in Figure 2.8 is designed in line with the allowed limit values for NO2. As shown in
the picture, the red area on and around the observed road exceeds the limit concentration values,
while smaller concentrations (<40 g/m3) are spread all over the observed 3x3 m area (light
yellow).

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Figure 2.9: Result of PM10 dispersion in the observed area

(Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

The legend in Figure 2.9 is also in line with the allowed limit values for PM10 in the Regulation on
ambient air quality. As shown in the picture, PM10 is nowhere too heavily concentrated
(exceeding 40 g/m3), but is dispersed in the area (light yellow, between 0 and 40 g/m3),
although not as widely as NOX. The reason for this can also be seen from comparing the
concentration values for PM10 and NOX in Figures 3.5 and 3.6. We can see that PM10
concentrations in g/m3 are from 10-30 times lower than NOX (NO2) concentrations.

Figure 2.10 shows the effect of the higher concentrated pollutant NO2 in the observed area.
According to the ESI calculation, the yellow marked area is classified as sensitive (ESI values
from 243-923). NO2 dispersion (mesh) spreads over the sensitive area, but its concentration is
the highest directly on and by the road.

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A5.2.9 - Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia

ESI Sensitivity classes

1 resilient area 0-61
2 less sensitive area 62-242
3 sensitive area 243-923
4 very sensitive area 924-2755
5 extremely sensitive area 2756-11649

Figure 2.10: NO2 dispersion in relation to environmental sensitivity of the observed area
(Source: OMEGA consult, 2011)

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3 LITERATURE

1. World health organisation website; http://www.who.int/en/

Programmes:

HBEFA 3.1: Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport

7.0 SoundPlan

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