To: Pat Fallon for Texas State Senate Campaign Team

From: Bob Wickers

Date: November 28, 2017
Re: Senate District 30 Survey Results Republican Primary Voters

Poll Summary: Pat Fallon is statistically dead-even with Craig Estes and well-
positioned in the Republican primary race for state senate.

I. Representative Pat Fallon is Statistically Dead-Even with Craig Estes 27% to 30%

After a three-week district-wide television, radio, and digital media flight, Representative Pat Fallon has
caught 16-year incumbent Craig Estes. Among likely voters Fallon garners 27% of the vote, with Estes at
30%. Todays ballot position represents a 12-point increase for Fallon and a 4-point drop for Estes a
16-point total net shift in Fallons direction from a previous poll conducted by The Wickers Group in
September.

In next years Republican primary election for state senate the candidates will be (names rotated). If the election were held
today for whom would you vote?

LIKELY VOTERS
November 21st- September 21st-
22nd 24th Shift
BALLOT
Fallon 27% 15% 12
Estes 30% 34% -4
Undecided 43% 51% -8

II. Illegal Immigration and Border Security Remains The Top Issue Concern at 28%, and Fallon
Leads Estes Among These Voters

The Fallon Campaigns three-week media flight featured Pat Fallons conservative voting record to stop
illegal immigration and secure the border, as well as Craig Estess failed record on illegal immigration
and sanctuary cities. The chart below illustrates how likely voters concerned about illegal immigration
responded favorably to Fallons message and advertising. Fallon leads Estes by six points among this
group, 36% to 30% -- a 31-point total net shift in Fallons direction from the previous September poll.
Now Id like to read you a list of issues some people from this part of Texas have said are important for their state legislators to
do something about. Please listen as I read the list and tell me which one issue you think is most important.

ILLEGAL
IMMIGRATION
AND BORDER
SECURITY (28%) (30%)
November September Shift
BALLOT
Fallon 36% 15% 21
Estes 30% 40% -10
Undecided 35% 45% -10

CONCLUSION: Today Pat Fallon is statistically tied with 16-year incumbent Craig Estes in the GOP
primary for state senate. Fallon begins this race extremely well-positioned among likely primary voters
district-wide; with a powerful, conservative message and campaign strategy that fully funded will
lead to victory in the Republican primary.

Links to Fallon Television Commercials (copy and paste into browser address bar):
Took Action
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdkBDryMqOs

Change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQwube27-1w

Survey
Demographics:
Party Identification Total Ideology Total
Republican 72% Liberal 2%
Non-Republican 28% Moderate 15%
Conservative 46%
Very Conservative 36%
Media Market Total Gender Total
DFW 61% Male 48%
Wichita Falls-Lawton 24% Female 52%
Sherman-Ada 15%

Methodology: The Wickers Group conducted a survey November 21-22, 2017 among 300 residents of Texas Senate District 30
both registered and considered likely to vote in the March 2018 Republican primary election for state senate. All interviews
were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random and interviews were stratified by
age, race, gender, and county to correlate with voter turnout from previous state senate Republican primary elections. At a .95
confidence level, this study carries a margin of error of +/- 5.5%. A 48%/52% Male/Female quota was enforced and, to increase
reach, 30% of respondents were contacted by cell phone.