Running head: INTERNATIONAL OBSTACLES 1

Writing Sample
Hannah Cornwell

This writing sample is a research paper project collectively conducted for my Introduction
to Gerontology, Honors Composition II, and Fundamental World Regional Geography
courses in November 2017.

Cracks in the Sidewalk: Variety in Age and Lifestyle

International Obstacles: Discovering Age-friendliness Differences in Japan and Omaha

Hannah Cornwell

University of Nebraska at Omaha

INTERNATIONAL OBSTACLES 2

Abstract

Within the United States, a common issue arising is age-friendliness in society. As the elderly

population begins to climb, accepting all the baby boomers who are beginning their later life,

more resources are needed to provide for the increasing elders. Neighborhoods are being

remodeled, forming new, age-friendly walkways and rest areas. Through the use of Honors

cohort classes at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, I have gained extensive knowledge on

understanding and reading Omaha neighborhoods, as well as countries (Japan), to judge cultural

aspects and age-friendliness. After touring four different neighborhoods within the Omaha area,

the data collected provides multitudinous perspectives and ensures adequate judgments for

research. Along these tours, the methods used were inspecting and taking notes on the physical

features that accompanied each area, scanning specifically for age-friendly seating and sidewalk

health. Throughout the research process, the data collected revealed that Omaha, while becoming

a more modernized city, is not as age-friendly as their elderly population would appreciate.

Then, with comparison to the urban areas of Japan, the data displayed the rising necessity of age-

friendliness, not just within the city of Omaha, but internationally. These recent struggles to

provide for the older population are quickly becoming a bigger obstacle for the world to face.
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Introduction

Societies constantly change, adjusting to growth and decline, promoting modernization

while attempting to conserve culture, and aiming for efficiency in an attempt to maintain healthy

planet. Despite all this change, one factor remains constant: aging. As age among the population

increases, efficiency becomes harder to achieve, presenting this aspect as an international

concern. While some countries encourage continuous activity and involvement within the

community throughout ones life, others disagree, endorsing a prejudice against age as older

people are seen as useless. This dynamic feature of the world has influenced a changing

perspective on the elderly as major cities struggle to adapt to the term age-friendliness. The

term is not directed specifically towards elders, but to the many generations within human life.

Modernization is coined as a term promoting the youth of the century or the people who will

decide the future of the world, when in reality, youthful geniuses may be artistic and creative,

but older people reveal wiser and more cautious ways of thinking. Although some agree that

risks should be taken in order to stimulate progress, too much riskwith little concern for the

consistent factors of societycan lead to failure. One such country struggling with the inclusion

of age-friendliness into urbanization is Japan. As Japan displays a high urban population but

negative growth, the bigger picture is to notice the effect of urbanization on all generations. Not

only is this prominent in the cities of Tokyo and Osaka, Japan, but also more locally, in the urban

city of Omaha, Nebraska. Age-friendliness appears to be difficult subject to address while

maintaining an inclusive perspective; however, through my analysis and research on the

significance of poverty and age-friendliness in Tokyo, Japan; and Omaha, Nebraska, it has

become clear that these areas display the effect of an aging population.
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Background

Due to the vast differences between the country of Japan and the city of Omaha,

perspective must be considered. When comparing a country to a city, there are various factors

that influence each area differently. Percentages and data will remain accurate if the overall

population is considered as well. The various cultures also impact their areas with vast

differences as American culture practices different religions than what is prominent in Japan. In

order to help equate the two regions, two major cities of Japan will be discussed in reference to

the city of Omaha. When comparing to Japan, the United States as a country will be used to

associate the differences. The research collected on the Omaha neighborhood is also a primary

source, whereas the data reported when discussing Japan is a secondary source. This does not

disrupt the quality of information, yet should be understood by the reader before continuing.

Descriptions of an Ideal Age-friendly City

Although many peoples opinions vary when discussing what makes a neighborhood age-

friendly, the research taken was based on the AARP. This organization values the definition of

age-friendliness as they rate neighborhoods for future elderly stay. Through the use of The

Livability Index, the AARP helps to promote the benefits and disadvantages that occur

throughout each neighborhood. For the particular field of study, the neighborhoods presented are

within the region of Omaha, Nebraska. Any bias associated with this area and the data collector

is removed through the use of the AARP organization and their rating of the neighborhood.

According to the AARP and The Livability Index, in order to generate a score

accounting for most factors significant to the reader, there are seven categories of livability that

are discussed: transportation, housing, neighborhood, environment, health, engagement, and

opportunity (AARP Livability Index).

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Transportation

As age increases, many elders also find other physical features commonly dwindling:

eyesight, maneuverability, reflexes, etc. The value of transportation at an older age increases as

fewer cars are used to travel and elders begin to depend on other resources near to them. This

segment accounts for the bus and train accuracy and times, as well as the location of stops

throughout a neighborhood. Another considered factor within this section is the safety of the

streets justifying the frequency of dangerous driving or car accidents around.

Housing

This factor continues to be significant as elders become more dependent and unable to

maintain their own homes. The housing segment of the Livability Index reveals the availability,

affordability, and accessibility of housing within each neighborhood. This gives the elders a

better reason to either relocate for dependency or to adventure into a neighborhood to settle

down in.

Neighborhood

Accessibility and proximity to certain resources are highly valued as a must-have of the

Livability Index. Because some elders struggle with transportation, most resources would be

considered inefficient if they were a twenty-minute walk or bus-ride away, taking time away

from other activities. This section also includes the sense of community found within the

neighborhood as it accounts for the vacancy and activity of the area. With a sense of community

also comes a sense of safety, another segment found significant by the AARP. They monitor

crime rate within the area to ensure the safest or most dangerous neighborhoods are regarded.

Environment
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As much as the social aspect applies to searching elders, the physical features also

influence a decision. The AARPs Livability Index measures just that, livability, by monitoring

the air and water quality within an area, confirming the true cleanliness of the region. This is

significant for elders as they are more susceptible to harsh conditions affecting their health and

eventually lead to a greater chance of disruption within their bodies.

Health

The pertinent truth of this factor remains one of the most important considerations of all.

As the AARP intends to provide an all-inclusive perspective on each community, their research

is heavily influenced by the accessibility of health care. They present the frequency of smoking

and obesity within an area to help readers understand the hazards that could affect their lifestyle.

Engagement

The significance of engagement occurs both civically and socially. This section includes

the social involvement within neighborhoods, encouraging elders to continue an active lifestyle.

It also incorporates the opportunity for civic involvement, determining if participation is easily

accepted within the area. By creating this division between social activity within the community

of the neighborhood and civic pursuits to help solve public concerns, the AARP informs the

reader of the various communal aspects in the neighborhood.

Opportunity

Despite the age-centered perspective of the AARP organization, they also account for

equality of various subjects in each surveyed neighborhood. This segment addresses the equality

of income, age-diversity, education, and job opportunity. Because most elders looking into a

retirement home are commonly not thought to be active workers, the job opportunity and income

equality sections help to comfort those who continue to seek a revenue. It also provides the
INTERNATIONAL OBSTACLES 7

education level within the area, ensuring a broader community. Lastly, this category includes the

age-diversity of the area, accounting for multi-generational communities on a scale of zero to

one. This knowledge of diversity helps to enforce a theme of acceptance within the community,

drawing closer those who are commonly stereotyped.

Descriptions of Urban Areas from Japan

Through the use of the prior information collected, a new perspective was used to address

the issue on a much larger scale. The country of Japan, arranged from four main islands,

currently contains 126,451,398 people spread throughout the cities within the area (Central

Intelligence Agency, 2016). Their six main citiesas of 2015include Tokyo, the capital

(38.001 million), Osaka-Kobe (20.238 million), Nagoya (9.406 million), Kitakyushu-Fukuoka

(5.51 million), Shizuoka-Hamamatsu (3.369 million), and Sapporo (2.571 million).

Elderly Population

Throughout these cities, around 28% of their population is 65 and older, giving them a

large elderly population (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). Despite the numerous elders within

Japanese society, the total dependency ratio increases to about 40% of the population (Central

Intelligence Agency, 2016). Thus, the number of inactive workers (those aged 0-14 and 65+) is

close to half the population. With this detail, one can assume that Japan is age-friendly,

accommodating the youth, adult, and elder people of their society. As the urban areas are thought

to house the upcoming intellectual young adults, most elders do not seek a home within the big

cities of Japan. This affects the perspective of urban cities as their age-friendliness is less-likely

to be as prominent where fewer elders reside (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016).

INTERNATIONAL OBSTACLES 8

While city life is not enticing for elders, the recent suburbs surrounding or within urban

areas attract many different generations of people, including the elderly. This expansion of cities

occurred in the 1960s after a high economic growth period, internal migration as many people

flocked from rural areas to the thriving urbanization of major cities (Stapleton & Karan, 2015,

pg. 79). As of today, the suburbs are populated by second-generation migrants who were born

and grew up in the suburbs, thus leading to the conclusion that cities may be forced to adapt and

become more age-friendly (Stapleton & Karan, 2015, pg. 79). Due to the increasing number of

elderly people living in or around urban areas, the Japanese society may decide to alter their

cities by increasing the safety of neighborhoods while giving the same opportunities provided for

the younger generation.

A rising concern now is that since many Japanese will spend their entire lives in the

suburban areas of large cities, modernization may not be the easiest transition on the majority of

the urban population (Stapleton & Karan, 2015, pg. 79). With the current urban population

consuming 94.3% of the total population, and the rate of urbanization remaining at a steady

0.15%, Japans urban areas might consider altering their rate of innovation to consider the

possible generational gentrification that could occur (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). This

term refers to the forced displacement of elderly people due to societal urban innovation. Instead

of forcing the poorest residents out, modernization will relocate the oldest residents, affecting

around 20% of the entire Japanese population.

Descriptions of Omaha Neighborhood

After researching the country of Japan, Omahas livability became more interesting and

explanatory for Americas value of all generations. The city of Omaha was researched through a

qualitative method that involved touring a specific neighborhood. The survey instrument used
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documented different aspects applying to age-friendliness, similar to AARPs Livability Index.

In order to maximize the researching efficiency, three more categories were added to account for

the specifically elder-related portions of the neighborhood: sidewalk health (scale of 1 to 5),

crosswalk timers (longevity and frequency), and nearby health services including a fire

department, hospital, or police station (location in relation to the neighborhood). The specific

neighborhood surveyed was Elmwood Park and Aksarben.

This neighborhood contained two different sides to it, the newly created Aksarben plaza,

and the outskirts of South 50th Street. Although the University of Nebraska at Omaha remained

within this neighborhood, South 50th Street lacked the modernization that was rampant in the

Aksarben area. In the neighborhood, Elmwood Park was an easily accessible region containing a

golf course, a community pool, a playground, and sporting areas. These three sections were all

graded together but comments and notes were made distinguishing each area from one another.

The research continued as elders from this neighborhood were interviewed to discover

their perspective on accessibility and age-friendliness within the neighborhood. The elders

interviewed lived in a retirement complex that contained many elderly-accessible activities both

inside and outside the facility. They enjoyed their lifestyle, not complaining about the fast

modernization of the Aksarben area, or the low grunginess along South 50th Street (Miller,

2017).

Sidewalk health

Because the elders interviewed have not experienced extreme physical decline, they

continue to drive everywhere, not worrying about the health of the sidewalk. Around their

complex, the sidewalks seem refurbished and stable, although their location leads to a limited
INTERNATIONAL OBSTACLES 10

amount of sidewalk. They live along the busy street of Leavenworth and by car is the most

common way of transportation, leaving their perspective on sidewalks slightly undervalued.

Crosswalk Timers

In front of the retirement complex runs the busy street of Leavenworth, causing foot

traffic to be monitored by stop lights and crosswalk timers. Through a brief discussion, the elders

interviewed recalled no difficulty with the length of the crosswalk timers. Due to their frequency

along the busy road, they give an exceptional amount of time for people to cross the street safely.

Health Services

With the Nebraska Medical Center only a few blocks away, the couple felt their access to

health services was beneficial and encouraged them to continue physical activity. They also have

a fire department with close proximity so their nerves are calmed by the reminder of close rescue

if ever need be. However, the nearest police station is located in the next county, limiting their

access to quick police assistance.

Comparison of Ideal Age-friendliness

As a modernizing urban area, Japans largest cities contain railways that help transport

the population across the country or within the city itself. Because their suburban population

consists of many elders, fast and accessible transportation is a positive age-friendly aspect of

Japanese cities. In Japan, 94.3% of their entire population lives within their six main cities.

However, when considering the number of people who live in the city of Omaha or even in the

cities of the United States, only 82% of the population resides within these large cities, spread

out across the country (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). Tokyo alone is home to around 38

million people while New York City only houses 18.5 million. This difference reveals the

cramped lifestyle that Japanese city-dwellers struggle through. Because of the mass amount of
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people living within their major cities, Japanese urban life is fast-paced and crowded, posing new

obstacles for slower-moving elders to overcome. Tokyo is currently considered the most

populous city on the planet with a growing elderly population (Stapleton & Karan, 2015, pg.

80). As they continue to adapt to the upcoming generation, their cities remain age-friendly in

some aspects, but struggle in others (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016).

Due to the overcrowded lifestyle of Japanese cities, their population under the poverty

line remains at 16.1%, or 20,358,675 people (as of 2013) (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016),

coming in second behind the United States with 15.1% or 49,320,494 peoplethe country with

the highest ratio of relative poverty (Osamu, 2007, pg. 2). This relative poverty is defined as the

amount of people whose income is not high enough to maintain the average standard of living

within their society (Osamu, 2007, pg. 2). Despite Japans high population under the poverty

line, they continue to provide an equal society as Osaka Citys per capita income is essentially

the same as Osaka Prefectures (Stapleton & Karan, 2015, pg. 111). The city of Osaka and its

prefecturesdistricts under a prefects governmentcontain similar per capita income even

when they are two differently urbanized areas. This equality found among the Japanese society is

due to the place of residence of most citizens. Instead of choosing an area that suits economic

abilities, Japanese people choose where they live based on family connections, the relative

location to work, or even their stage in the life cycle (Stapleton & Karan, 2015, pg. 111). By

ignoring the class and status qualities of the surrounding neighborhood, this creates an equal

spread of different incomes and leaves behind stereotypical economic divisions. This also reveals

that people will move to certain areas based on their generation or age. By taking matters into

their own hands, the elderly population is not forced into an area because of modernization, they
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are free to choose where they want to live for their comfortability. In America, this freedom is

stunted by the necessity of money to be comfortable as an elder.

The poverty situation consuming Japan is also pertinent to their lack of growth as a

country. With a population growth rate of -0.21%, the Japanese society is slowly reducing as

their elderly population outnumbers their youth (see Figures 1 and 2 of Appendix A). While the

birth rate remains high at 7.7 births/1,000, the death rate continues to be higher at 9.8

deaths/1,000 (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). This factor labels Japan as a post-industrial

country in decline, reaching into the fifth stage of the Demographic Transition Model (see Figure

3 and 4 in Appendix B). This model is used to determine what stage of development countries

are going through, depicting five stages (four in the old version) beginning with pre-

industrialization and ending with the post-industrialization or declining stage. Because Japan

realizes its poverty situation, they have created the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, which

consists of projects and grants created to support the lessening of poverty within Japan and

surrounding countries (Asian Development Bank, 2013, pg. 2-3). This effort displays the

struggle between the governments perspective of significance and the publics. As Japan

continues the fight to decrease their population under the poverty line, they influence the way

their society views the government, whether it lends a helping hand or an unsatisfied glare.

Comparison of Cities

The comparison between two cities requires multiple perspectives and impacting factors

that influence each city differently. When considering Japan and its prime city of Tokyo, the data

reveals thatdue to an influx of elderly people from a declining populationtheir age-

friendliness will increase or become more noticeable within the coming years. However, in

America, the city of Omaha is not as large and modern as the city of Tokyo, making it more
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likely to include age-friendliness and accounting for a good amount of its population. This

change to accommodate a more generationally diverse community is much easier to complete on

a small scale such as Omaha. In Tokyo, the population of elderly do not have significant enough

numbers to instigate a giant shift from modernization to age-friendliness. Although, they may

have to consider making some changes to continue promoting a healthy society.

However, while different, the two cities are joined in their population below the poverty

line. Because the United States is the leading country in terms of the ratio of relative poverty, the

city of Omaha, Nebraska exhibits 16.7% of its population below the poverty line (QuickFacts,

n.d.). Out of the total population of 446,970 people, 74,643 are below the poverty line, drawing a

distinct similarity between Japan and the city of Omaha. This is due to the financial and

economic segregation that accompanies the various neighborhoods of Omaha. Like Japan,

Omaha is made up of different areas of population along with multitudinous cultures throughout.

The cities of Japan correlate to the neighborhoods of Omaha, differing as poverty is found in

stereotypically non-wealthy areas. When comparing the cities of Japan to the neighborhoods of

Omaha, one must consider the vast cultural differences associated with each area. Since America

is fueled by money, economically segmented areas are commonly found throughout the city,

dividing the neighborhoods by wealth and status. This variance from Japan reveals the different

values placed on wealth and class and how urbanization can contribute to this immensely. While

economic status distinguishes the wealthy from the poor in American cities, modernization

divides the elders from the youth in Japanese cities.

Explanation of Population Below the Poverty Line

Although poverty is commonly a term referring to the poorest people of a society,

relative poverty is measured differently. Instead of basing poverty on homelessness, health, or

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the ability to provide food and shelter, poverty is constructed based on the poverty line. This is

an imaginary line created to separate a low income from a high income. It represents the lowest

income someone could receive while continuously being able to maintain the average standard of

living. Once below this line, people are considered poor, impoverished, and strugglingin the

eyes of society. However, literally, poverty is distinguished by the income one makes, which,

even if below the poverty line, can still be enough to maintain a healthy lifestyle with the right

perspective. This misunderstanding of true poverty reveals how a negative connotation has been

given to those under the poverty line.

GDP

When predicting poverty, one must take into account the state of the country itself. If the

economy is going through a depression, the poverty rate might increase drastically, yet it cannot

be considered permanent. Understanding a nations economy begins with understanding GDP

(gross domestic product). This reveals the total value of product produced by the companies

within the country, thus accounting for the profit of the country as a whole. With Japans GDP

around five trillion, their economy ranks in the top three as a successful economy (Central

Intelligence Agency, 2016). Because of this factor, their poverty is not due to economic failure.

Unemployment Rate

Another aspect to look into when determining poverty is the unemployment rate. As the

unemployment rate remains at around 5.1% of the population, this could have a negative effect

on the poverty occurring within Japan (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). Although this

percentage of unemployed causes poverty, a high percentage of the population continues to

thrive in the workplace, securing the economic growth within the country.
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Urbanization

While discussed in terms of generational gentrification, social gentrification can also

influence poverty within a nation. As urbanization occurs quickly and constantly, those not

financially prepared for the changes may be displaced from their homes and forced under the

poverty line. This modernization is seen in the large cities of Japan and most likely has an

influential effect on their poverty.

Education Expenditure

Due to the value of education within Japan, this factor remains unlikely to affect their

poverty, yet should be considered when contemplating other countries. With a high education

expenditure of 4.9% of their GDP, Japan reveals the significance they place on education,

continuing to improve and successfully influence the youth of society (Central Intelligence

Agency, 2016). Not only do they spend almost 5% of their GDP on education, but they also

increase efficiency within the school system, lowering the school life expectancy to 15 years

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). This promotes success with the incoming young adults into

the innovative world.

Despite these seemingly dissimilar concepts, the population under the poverty line

directly affects the age-friendliness due to the people who make up the impoverished. As elders

above the age of 65 and youth below the age of 14 are considered dependent beings, they rely on

others for help. Sixty-five is the common retirement age when people stop working and focus on

the rest of their life, mostly receiving government checks such as Social Security, Medicaid, or

Medicare to remain economically stable. More stable jobs also promote a 401K or a pension

after retirement, ensuring an income check continuously. While perfection is the goal, these

government and work-related benefits are starting to diminish in quality. The average retirement
INTERNATIONAL OBSTACLES 16

age continues to steadily rise as citizens worry that they will not make enough money to continue

the lifestyle they live currently once they retire. As poverty increases, the elderly are slowly

becoming victims, unable to rejoin the workforce and growing weaker as they get older.

Poverty also affects age-friendliness as the multitude of people who struggle to survive

economically can limit the amount of energy spent by the government towards age-friendly

changes. With greater poverty, the governments values reside with helping the poor instead of

helping the elderly. Since both populations are considered dependent groups, government choice

is split between these two issues, along with the multitudinous other concerns facing society.

Comparison of Other Variables Throughout Research

Urbanization. This factor commonly affects age-friendliness within a community as the

urbanization determines the relative location of elderly people. With urbanization increasing

throughout the world, more elderly are struggling to keep up with the modern society. This can

even cause displacement of elders, leading to the fact that age-friendliness will not be reached

while urbanization is occurring.

Elderly Dependency Ratio. The elderly dependency ratio reveals the amount of

population who are deemed dependent and are provided for by the rest of society, excluding the

youth (65+). As dependent members of society, elders sometimes rely on others to help them

remain active in their lives. A high elderly dependency ratio would mean age-friendly

neighborhoods are a must-have as a majority of the population is declining in health. A low

elderly dependency ratio would affect the society as it achieves rapid growth, commonly seen in

undeveloped countries.

Health Expenditures. The money and effort put into the medical field affect the elderly

population as they tend to rely more on hospitals as age increases. The United States differs from
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Japan in this field with the use of government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. The

Japanese culture varies from the government-involved system of America and instead places

more value on family. Instead of sending elders away to nursing homes, like the United States,

Japanese children will continue to care for their parents as they age. This lowers the amount of

healthcare available to the Japanese people because the care rests on the family members instead

of trained professionals. With low health expenditures, the quality of life for elders are more

likely to diminish and death and illness will become prominent. However, with high health

expenditures, the longevity and quality of life will increase as societys support of health care

influences the elderly population positively.

Conclusion

With the significance of age-friendliness increasing, the international value of the elderly

population continues to grow. Through research and data collected on both a national and

international scale, the city of Omaha and the country of Japan are prime subjects to discuss the

rising importance of age-friendliness within the progressing world. To understand the social

aspects of society with a broad mind is an intricate task, masked by stereotypes and hateful

labels. However, to understand the plight of the aging population is even more difficult,

considering their weaknesses that distinguish them from the rest of society. Despite the idea to

treat every person the same, elderly people are dependent beings who sometimes rely on others

for financial, social, and even physical activities. Without drawing negative stereotypes, the

elders of society deserve to be acknowledged as members with wisdoma type of key into the

past. By combining the young and the old, various perspectives can be used to learn, discover,

and even create, no matter what generation. The rising significance of elders is not only seen in

the United States; it affects countries with extreme cultural boundaries and physical boundaries,
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vast histories, and different values. This portrays the effect that the elder population has on the

upcoming young innovators of todays society. By looking to the past, respecting the wise, and

acknowledging ignorance, the key to changing an unforgiving society is acceptance.

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References

AARP Livability Index - Web-based Tool to Measure Community Livability. (n.d.). Retrieved

November 20, 2017, from https://livabilityindex.aarp.org

Asian Development Bank, A. (2013). Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction: Annual Report 2012.

Retrieved November 26, 2017

Central Intelligence Agency. (2016). Japan. CIA World Factbook. Retrieved from

https://www.cia.gov/

Miller, T. (2017, October 7). Fieldwork Interview [Personal interview].

Osamu, A. (2007) Perceptions of Poverty in Japan: Constructing an Image of Relative Poverty

Contrasted Against an Image of Extreme Poverty, Journal of Poverty, 11:3, 5-14, DOI:

10.1300/J134v11n03_02

QuickFacts: Omaha City, Nebraska. (n.d.). Retrieved November 26, 2017, from

https://www.census.gov

Stapleton, K. E., & Karan, P. P. (2015). The Japanese City. Lexington: The University Press of

Kentucky.
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Appendix A

Figure 1. The population pyramid of Japan displaying its abundance of 65 and over citizens as

compared to their decreasing youth of 14 and under. This places them as a post-industrial

declining country, stage five.

Figure 2. The population pyramid of America displaying its minimal number of 65 and over citizens

as compared to their large youth of 14 and under. This places them as an industrial post-industrial

developing country, stage four.

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Appendix B

Figure 3. The demographic transition model displaying five stages of development. The inclusion of the

fifth stage is yet to be determined. As of now, stage five is considered declining and will occur after

development has passed the post-industrial stage four. The purple circle is where Japans estimated

development is currently. The green circle is where Americas estimated development resides.

Figure 4. This original demographic transition model does not include stage five, yet it

does include the names of each phase. Since no developing country had reached past the

post-industrial stage, there was previously no stage five.