MEMORANDUM

TO: Major Donors and SuperPAC Directors

FROM: Rick Shaftan, Atlantic Media and Research @shaftan

RE: Survey, Alabama 11/27-29

DATE: 11/30/17

Atlantic Media and Research completed 373 surveys of Alabama

voters who had participated in both the 2014 and 2016 general
elections and said their chances of voting in the December 12th
special election for U.S. Senate were definite or very
likely. The theoretical margin of error is +/- 5.1 percent in
95 percent of cases at a 50 percent response level. All calls
were made by live operators to both landlines and cellphones
from our facilities in Rodanthe, North Carolina.

37 percent of respondents were reached on cellphones (43 percent

last week) and 20 percent of those responding were identified on
the voter file as being African-American (22 percent last week)
even though 28 percent of the calls were made to these same
voters. The data below is upweighted from the raw numbers to
reflect an electorate that is 27 percent African-American and
lower the median age to 60 although we think the real black
turnout will be a few points less than that and the electorate a
few years older for this election thirteen days before
Christmas. This project was completed at the request of several
major SuperPAC donors.

SUMMARY

Republican Roy Moore is on his way to winning what could be a

very substantial rebuke to his political enemies. Moore led by
48-40 in the weighted data, up from 43-40 last week. In the
unweighted data, Moores lead shot up from 43-37 to 53-35 (55-35
with definite voters).

If turnout is whiter and older than anticipated, the election

could become a double-digit landslide, even with as much as a
million dollars on the street, or more, for election day.
Among non-African-American voters, Moores lead exploded from
54-27 last week to 63-25. His favorables improved slightly from
an upside down 31-39 to an even 34-34 while Jones remained
constant at 32-35. (These numbers reflect the weighted results,
and not the raw data that is significantly more favorable to
Moore.)

Jones continues to have trouble consolidating Moore

unfavorables. While Moore wins 92 percent of Jones unfavorables
(up from 88 percent last week), Jones gets just 80 percent of
Moore unfavorables (up from 75 percent last week). Moore
continues to get 7 percent of those voters, despite their
unfavorable opinion of him.

Moore wins 74 percent of the 12 percent of voters who have a

mixed opinion of him (from 71 percent last week). Jones wins
only 46 percent of those mixed on Jones (from 43 percent the
week before). Jones needs to move that football faster than he
is.

Last week Jones was 35-32 with voters under 65. Hes moved up
slightly to 37-30 but among those over 65 hes dropped from 31-
39 to 27-40 relatively minor overall. Moores numbers
actually got slightly worse among those under 65 (28-38 to 27-
42) but improved greatly among those over 65, where he went from
a 33-38 net negative to a 41-28 positive.

Jones is consolidating his Democratic base, but little else as

Republicans unite behind Moore. Jones needs massive Republican
defections to win and, other than the Senior U.S. Senator, he
has none.

Last week we wrote that while many voters continue to look at

Moore with an open mind, there is little room for Jones to grow
outside of his Democratic Party base because few conservative
voters are abandoning Moore in this very conservative state.

This situation has gotten even worse for Jones in the last week
as Republicans are not only refusing to abandon Judge Moore, but
are rushing to stand with him in the face of millions in outside
liberal dollars. In fact, these ads are offending voters to the
point that they are acting as a Moore GOTV operation. And were
seeing that in the open-endeds.
When asked to describe their personal ideology, 32 percent said
they were very liberal, somewhat liberal or moderate (up
from 30 percent last week) and Jones was leading by 73-21 with
these voters (down from 79-12 last week). But 51 percent of
voters said they were somewhat conservative, very
conservative or libertarian (down from 55 percent last week)
and Moore holds a 74-14 lead there (up from 68-12). Put another
way, 6 percent of liberal and moderate voters are undecided
(from 9 percent), versus 12 percent of conservative-leaning
voters (from 20 percent). Thats a big problem for the man
known as Abortion Jones, who personally is a 12-60 net
negative among this majority group (from 10-54).

Undecided voters are deciding, and theyre breaking heavy for

Moore.

Heres what a million dollars or so in advertising has done for

Joness open endeds in the last week (remember that his
fav/unfav remained stable and underwater at 32-35).

When we asked Jones favorables what they liked about their

candidate, 19 percent mentioned his work as a prosecutor (up
from 11 percent last week) 18 percent said he was honest, fair
or moral (from 25 percent), 12 percent (from 15 percent) said he
was running against Moore, 9 percent like his views (same), 8
percent like him personally (from 9 percent), 6 percent said he
is a Democrat (from 9 percent), 6 percent said for the people
(from 4 percent), 6 percent called him a bipartisan unifier
(from 4 percent), 5 percent (from 3 percent) said he wants to do
good, 3 percent said he is a Christian (from 1 percent), 3
percent said he fights for what is right (new).

While the advertising reinforces Joness prosecutorial record

with liberals attracted to the notion of a bipartisan moderate.
But it goes little beyond that. And theres not a lot to show
for all that money.

The gains have been mostly with blacks. 21 percent of African-

American Jones favorables now mention his prosecutorial work
(versus 12 percent last week). Tied to that are the 6 percent
of blacks who say he fights for what is right. This is a direct
result of advertising.
Among Jones unfavorables, 40 percent (up from 37 percent)
mention his pro-abortion position, 30 percent (from 33 percent)
say he is a Democrat or Liberal, 9 percent (from 6 percent)
dislike his views, 8 percent (from 7 percent), say he is running
a smear campaign against Moore, 5 percent (from 6 percent)
dislike him personally, 3 percent (from 2 percent) say he is a
liar.

Voters with a mixed opinion of Jones are much more likely to

mention negative attacks on Moore as their reason for disliking
Jones (23 percent this week versus 7 percent last week). These
ads are driving Jones positives into mixed opinion and
undecided.

With Moore favorables, 34 percent (up from 21 percent last week)

say they like his Christian values. That in itself shows the
GOP nominee recovering from salacious allegations from a few
weeks back. 14 percent (from 8 percent) like that he is
conservative, 13 percent (down sharply from 22 percent) say
defensively that he stands up for what he believes, 11 percent
(from 8 percent) say he is Republican. These are the higher
income voters who have never liked either Trump or Moore, but
want to stop Doug Jones.

Six percent (from 8 percent) like his views, 6 percent (from 5

percent) call him honest, 4 percent (from 3 percent) say he is
pro-life. Just one percent mentioned hes fighting media lies,
from 7 percent last week.

Its a pretty simple message: Christian. Conservative.

Republican. Checkmate.

Among those softer Moore supporters who have a mixed opinion of

him, 31 percent (up from 24 percent) like that he is
conservative, 28 percent (from 22 percent) mention his Christian
values, 13 percent (from 17 percent), that he is a Republican, 8
percent (from 17 percent) like that he stands up for what he
believes, 5 percent say he is pro-life (new this week with Moore
mixed voters) and 5 percent like that he is an independent
maverick (also new with this group).

Most of these voters will be favorable by election day.

This gain was achieved with a minimal amount of advertising,
seven-figures plus worth of negative ads and daily hostile media
coverage. Now its time for our team to explode and jack
turnout up to crazy levels with our people.

When Moore unfavorables are asked what they dislike about him,
29 percent (up from 16 percent) say he was thrown off the court
twice, 22 percent (down from 32 percent) mention the
allegations, 9 percent say he is a liar (from 7 percent), 8
percent hate him or similar comments (from 9 percent), 6
percent (from 7 percent) say he is a hypocrite or uses God, 5
percent call him a zealot, extremist or too conservative (same),
5 percent say he is out for himself (from 4 percent), 5 percent
dislike his record (from 2 percent). New categories at 2
percent that did not appear last week: racist, crazy, bad
person.

With African-American Moore unfavorables, 31 percent mentioned

the allegations, 17 percent the Supreme Court removal, 14
percent say he is a liar, 8 percent hate him, 6 percent
Republican, 6 percent dislike his record, 6 percent say he is a
racist. The top items were similar to last week.

As the allegations fade, the anti-Moore voter goes back to the

same reasons they hated him a month ago.

Among those with a mixed opinion on Moore, 62 percent mention

the scandal (58 percent last week), 10 percent (from 8 percent)
that he was removed from the court, 10 percent (from 6 percent)
say he is a zealot, 5 percent say he is out for himself (new).

As was the case last week, there is no gender gap in this race
with Moore up by 8 with both men and women. Those identified on
the voter file as African-American are voting 81-7 for Jones
(from 74-9). Moore wins all others by 63-25 (from 54-26).
Joness lead is actually up to 50-40 among those under 50, but
Moore is now leading 55-32 with voters over 65 (up from a 48-33
lead we described last week as solid.

UNDECIDED VOTERS

As was the case last week, the remaining undecided voters lean
right and represent low-hanging fruit for the Moore campaign to
pick up in the coming weeks. 57 percent consider themselves
conservative or libertarian, a higher proportion than the
electorate and the exact same percentage as the much larger
undecided pool from last week. Moores unfavorable is 36
percent with these voters (from 34 percent). Joness is 21
percent (20 percent last week).

CONCLUSION

Last week we wrote that the worst of the storm is over and our
worst case three-point lead is now eight points as Republicans
unite behind his candidacy and make a Jones victory highly
unlikely at best.

None of this data is secret. The Jones crew, with literally

millions of dollars at their disposal, are doing poll calls
exactly like ours and finding out exactly the same thing. The
consultants will never let them pull their ads this late, even
though thats what logic would dictate when all avenues of
escape are gone. Instead, expect Democrats to go full tilt
scorched earth in the final 10 days as their defeat becomes more
and more apparent.

The Moore campaign needs to run a heavy schedule of made-for-TV

big rallies to show images of strong grass-roots support to
bolster the existing message. They also need to hit back Jones
in earned and paid media on the Democrats radical left-wing
extremism, blind loyalty to Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi and
bizarre enthusiastic support for taxpayer-funded partial birth
and other abortions up to the moment of birth.

We will continue to track this race on and off through next

Thursday.

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