REVENUE EFFECTS OF

MAJOR TAX BILLS

by

Jerry Tempalski

U.S. Department of the Treasury

OTA Working Paper 81 Revised July 2003

The OTA Papers series is an occasional series of reports on the research, models, and datasets
developed to inform and improve Treasury=s tax policy analysis. The papers are works in
progress and subject to revision. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do
not necessarily represent official Treasury positions or policy. OTA Papers are distributed in
order to document OTA analytic methods and data and invite discussion and suggestions for
revision and improvement. Comments are welcome and should be directed to the authors.

Office of Tax Analysis

U.S. Treasury Department
Washington, D.C. 20220

I am grateful to Robert Carroll, Lowell Dworin, Laura Kalambokidis, David Richardson, and
Karl Scholz for their comments and to Kevin Morris and Anona Samuel for their research
assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily
represent the views of the U.S. Treasury Department.
 ABSTRACT

Since 1940 many major tax bills have been enacted. This paper uses revenue estimates

of each bill to create consistent measures of the relative size of the several dozen major tax bills

enacted since 1940.

The Revenue Act of 1942 was the biggest tax increase (and biggest tax bill) of the 1940-

1967 period; the Revenue Act of 1945 was the biggest tax cut of that period. The Economic

Recovery Tax Act of 1981 was the biggest tax cut (and biggest tax bill) of the 1968-2003 period;

the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 was the biggest tax increase of that period.

Jerry Tempalski
Office of Tax Analysis
Room 4108, Main Treasury Building
1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20220
JERRY.TEMPALSKI@DO.TREAS.GOV
 REVENUE EFFECTS OF MAJOR TAX BILLS

Since the federal income tax was significantly expanded in 1940, several dozen major tax

bills have been enacted. Inevitably, discussions (and disagreements) have arisen concerning the

relative size of the bills= effects on federal revenues.1 This paper uses revenue estimates from

Treasury and the Joint Committee on Taxation to compare the relative size of the revenue effect

of the major tax bills enacted after 1939 using four different measures. An appendix provides a

short list of the major provisions in the bills.

The paper divides the post-1939 years into two periods, 1940-1967 and 1968-2003. The

comparison of tax bills for the first period should be examined with some caution, because the

revenue estimates are from different sources and are not completely consistent. The comparison

for the second period can be viewed with more confidence, because the estimates are relatively

consistent.

Comparing the size of the revenue effects of tax bills sounds like a relatively easy

exercise. But because the available data are not necessarily consistent and because there are

several ways of measuring the revenue effects of tax bills, problems have to be resolved and

choices have to be made before the bills can be compared. Each section discusses some of the

problems encountered and choices made in comparing the revenue estimates.

1
See for example, Louis Lyons, ATEFRA >82 vs. OBRA >93: Whose Tax Increase Was Bigger?@
Tax Notes, August 26, 1996, pp. 1098-1099.
 2

This paper analyzes each tax bill separately. A bill is analyzed on the basis of exactly

those provisions contained in the bill when the bill was enacted. Bills are not analyzed together,

even if a later bill was primarily designed to offset some of the effect of an earlier bill. For

example, although the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) was enacted

primarily to offset some of the revenue loss from the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981

(ERTA), the two bills are analyzed as separate bills in this paper.

The four measures used to compare the revenue estimates of the tax bills are:

C current dollars,

C constant 1992 dollars,

C percentage of gross domestic product (GDP),

C percentage of total federal receipts.

The single best measure for most purposes is probably the revenue effect as a percentage

of GDP, because it eliminates the effects of inflation, real economic growth, and the size of total

federal receipts. The second best measure is probably constant dollars, because it eliminates the

effects of inflation and the size of total federal receipts.

1940-1967

Congressional floor discussions indicate that most of the major tax bills in the 1940-1967

period were associated with wars.2 The tax increases in the 1940-1943 period helped pay for the

costs of preparing for, and fighting, World War II. The Revenue Act of 1945 cut taxes in the

2
The Congressional Record contains all Congressional floor discussions.
 3

aftermath of World War II. The tax increases in 1950 and 1951 were passed to pay for the

Korean War, and the Tax Adjustment Act of 1966 helped to pay for the Vietnam War.

Methodology - For each tax bill of this period, Treasury and the Joint Committee on

Taxation (JCT)3 presumably produced revenue estimates.4 A consistent source of revenue

estimates, however, was not available for all bills from this period. For some bills, Treasury

Department estimates were available. For other bills, JCT estimates were available. For still

other bills, the only estimates available were from statements or tables included in the

Congressional Record without a citation for the source of the estimates. For this subsection,

Treasury estimates were used when available. Table 1 notes which estimates are not Treasury

estimates.

For some bills, revenue estimates for the year after enactment were available. For others,

Afull-year effect@ estimates were available. Full-year effect estimates were used when available.

Table 1 notes which estimates are for the year after enactment.

Actual GDP and GDP deflator figures for the year after enactment were used to estimate

a bill=s constant dollar effect and its effect as a percentage of GDP. Similarly, actual federal

revenues for the year after enactment were used to estimate a bill=s effect as a percentage of

federal revenue.

3
Before 1974 the JCT was known as the Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation.
4
The two group=s estimates historically are generally close to each other.
 4

Results - By all measures, the Revenue Act of 1942 was by far the biggest tax increase of

the period and was also bigger than any tax decrease of the period, making it the biggest tax bill

of the period. (See Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2.) The second biggest tax increase of the period,

measured as a percentage of GDP, was the Revenue Act of 1941. Measured in constant dollars,

however, the Revenue Act of 1951 was the second largest tax increase.

Measured as a percentage of GDP, the Revenue Act of 1945 was the biggest tax cut of

the period, with the Revenue Act of 1948 the second biggest tax cut. Measured in constant

dollars, however, the Revenue Act of 1964 was the biggest tax cut, with the Revenue Act of

1945 second.

1968-2003

The revenue estimates for the bills in the 1968-2003 period suggest that the period can

broken into three subperiods. First, most of the bills enacted before 1982 were tax cuts. During

this period, inflation was relatively high and the individual income tax parameters were not

indexed for inflation. Without indexation, inflation can push taxpayers into higher tax brackets

without any increase in real income. This phenomenon is called bracket creep, and it increases

federal revenue as a percentage of GDP without any legislative action. In fact, when inflation is

relatively high and bracket creep is particularly intense, as it was through much of the 1970's,

policymakers have to cut taxes repeatedly to maintain the desired level of taxes. Of the 9 major

tax bills enacted between 1968 and 1981, 6 reduced federal revenue.

Second, in 1981, ERTA was enacted, which provided for the indexation of the individual

income tax parameters. The combination of indexation and relatively large federal budget
 5

deficits helped cause 9 of the 11 major tax bills enacted between 1982 and 1993 to increase

federal revenue.

Third, all 6 of the major tax bills enacted after 1993 have reduced federal revenue, mostly

as a result of soaring federal revenue that pushed the federal budget into surplus for the first time

in many years.

Methodology - For the bills in this period, Treasury Department revenue estimates were

used, because inflation and GDP forecasts consistent with the Treasury estimates were more

readily available than forecasts consistent with the JCT estimates. The estimates are for the

federal government=s fiscal years (July 1-June 30 for 1968-1976, and October 1-September 30

for post-1976 years).

Treasury revenue estimates presented in the Administration=s first post-enactment

January budget were used.5 6 Treasury produces estimates for a bill when it is enacted, generally

reestimates the bill for the January budget, and sometimes reestimates a bill for several

subsequent budgets. In a few cases, the first post-enactment estimates proved not very accurate.

For example, revenues from the Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax of 1980 were estimated to be $21

5
The first post-enactment January budget for the Consolidated Budget and Reconciliation Act of
1985 (COBRA) did not contain the revenue effect of COBRA. COBRA estimates used in this paper are
from the second post-enactment January budget.
6
Revenue estimates for bills enacted after 1995 were not shown in the January budgets. Except
for the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA), internal Treasury Department
estimates made in conjunction with the first post-enactment budgets are used in this paper. For JGTRRA,
internal Treasury estimates made in conjunction with the first post-enactment midsession review are used.
 6

billion in 1984; actual revenues were probably less than $4 billion. This paper makes no

adjustment for estimates that proved to be inaccurate.

When available, estimates are presented for each of the first 4 fiscal years after

enactment.7 For most years, 4 years of post-enactment estimates were available; for the earliest

years of the period, only 2 years of estimates were available. Annual averages for the first 4

years after enactment and the first 2 years after enactment are also presented.

Constant dollar estimates are first computed based on the calendar year GDP deflator

forecast contained in the same January budget from which the revenue estimates came. Then

these estimates are converted into 1992 dollars based on the actual GDP deflator. Revenue

effects as a percentage of GDP are based on calendar year GDP forecasts from the same January

budget.8 Revenue effects as a percentage of total revenues are based on fiscal year federal

revenue forecasts from the same January budget. The federal receipts forecasts reported in the

budget are reduced by the effect of the enacted bill under analysis and by the effect of

Administration=s proposed legislative changes contained in the budget.

Analyzing tax bills strictly by their revenue estimates can be deceiving for at least three

reasons. First, some tax bills have major provisions that are temporary (e.g., 10-percent income

tax surcharge in the Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968), masking the long-run effect

7
Because all provisions in JGTRRA were effective in the year of enactment, the estimates for
JGTRRA are shown for (1) the four years after enactment, and (2) the year of enactment and the three
years after enactment.
8
The first post-enactment January budgets for the Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968
(RECA) and the Tax Reform Act of 1969 did not contain GDP deflator estimates nor GDP estimates for
the second year after enactment. As a substitute for these missing estimates, the actual figures were used.
 7

of the tax bill for the first year or two after enactment. Other tax bills have major provisions that

do not become effective until several years after enactment (e.g., the indexation of individual tax

parameters in ERTA was not effective until 1985), which also prevent the long-term effects of

the tax bill from being seen in the years right after enactment. The estimates presented in this

period include no adjustment to capture the long-run, fully-phased-in effect of the tax bills. With

the sharp increase in the use of sunsets and phase-ins in recent legislation (e.g., Economic

Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA)), it is particularly difficult to

compare the true long-term revenue effects of recent tax bills.

Second, relatively small differences in the effective dates of tax provisions can affect the

revenue estimate for the year after enactment. For bills whose important provisions are effective

before October 1 (the start of the fiscal year) of the year of enactment, the revenue estimate for

the year after enactment will reflect a full year=s economic activity. For bills whose important

provisions are effective after October 1 -- January 1 is the effective date for many provisions --

the first year=s revenue estimate will not reflect a full year=s economic activity. For example, the

individual tax rate cut in ERTA was not effective until January 1, 1982. Thus, the revenue

estimate for fiscal year 1982 only contains a 9-month effect. On the other hand, the individual

tax rate increase in Omnibus Reconciliation Bill of 1993 (OBRA93) was retroactive, so the

revenue estimate for fiscal year 1994 contains a 12-month effect.

Third, government revenue estimates do not take into account the effect of the bills on

GDP, even though some bills (e.g., Tax Reduction Act of 1975) were primarily designed to
 8

stimulate the economy.9 The effect of most tax bills on GDP is uncertain, but probably generally

small.10

Results - By every measure used here, ERTA was by far the biggest tax change (and the

biggest tax cut) over the past 35 years. (See Table 2 and Figures 3 and 4.) The revenue effect of

ERTA was more than twice as large (in constant dollars) as any other post-1967 tax bill.

Similarly, the revenue effect of ERTA, measured as a percentage of GDP and as a percentage of

total federal revenue, was more than twice as large as any post-1967 tax bill, except RECA,

which contained a temporary 10-percent income tax surcharge. The second largest tax cut of the

period as a percentage of GDP was the Revenue Act of 1978; the second largest tax cut in

constant dollars was the EGTRRA.

TEFRA was the biggest tax increase of the period measured in constant dollars and as a

percentage of GDP. OBRA93 was the second biggest tax increase measured in constant dollars

and as a percentage of GDP.

9
Indirectly, the revenue estimates in the budget may contain a small GDP effect. If an enacted
bill affects the budget GDP forecast, the revenue estimate for the bill will contain a small GDP effect.
The rest of the tax effect from the GDP effect will show up only as a change in baseline tax receipts.
10
For a discussion on including the effect of tax bills on GDP in government revenue estimates,
see Alan J. Auerbach, ADynamic Revenue Estimates,@ The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter
1996, Volume 10, Number 1, pp. 141-157.
 9

APPENDIX
This appendix provides a short list of the major provisions in each of the tax bills examined in
this paper. For each bill, the provisions are listed in rough order of their revenue effects, with the
provision with the greatest revenue effect listed first.

For tax bills of the World War II era (1940-1945), the descriptions of the major provisions are
less detailed than the descriptions for other tax bills. The reason for this difference is that the enormous
increase in the need for revenue in that era led to many different types of taxes on individual and
corporate incomes. The interrelationships between these different taxes make it very difficult to briefly
summarize the effects of enacted provisions.11

Revenue Act of 1940

C temporarily and permanently increased individual income tax rates
C temporarily and permanently increased corporate income tax rates (top rate from 19% to 22.1%)
C temporarily increased most excise tax rates to 30-50%
C reduced personal exemption amount from $2,500 to $2,000 (married couples)
Second Revenue Act of 1940
C created corporate excess profits tax (top rate of 50%)
C increased corporate income tax rates (top rate increased from 22.1% to 24%)
Revenue Act of 1941
C increased excess profits tax by 10 percentage points (top rate increased from 50% to 60%)
C permanently extended 1940 temporary individual, corporate, and excise tax increases
C increased corporate tax rates 6-7 percentage points (top rate increased from 24% to 31%)
C increased excise taxes on alcohol, tires, etc.
C reduced personal exemption amount from $2,000 to $1,500 (married couples)
Revenue Act of 1942
C increased individual income tax rates
C increased corporate tax rates (top rate increased from 31% to 40%)
C replaced 35-60% graduated rate schedule for excess profits tax with flat 90% rate
C created 5% Victory tax on all individual income over $624, with postwar credit
C reduced personal exemption amount from $1,500 to $1,200 (married couples)

11
Even before 1940, the Anormal@ individual and corporate tax rates were supplemented with
surtax rates that far exceeded the normal rates. Both the normal and the surtax rates were changed several
times during the 1940-1945 period. In 1940, temporary Adefeat@ tax increases on individual and corporate
incomes were enacted. Also in 1940, an corporate excess profits tax was enacted. In 1942, a AVictory@
tax on individual incomes was enacted. Policy makers were aware of the complications caused by these
different types of taxes and, in several tax bills, attempted to rationalize these different taxes and reduce
the administrative burden on taxpayers. For a summary of income tax rates and exemptions since 1913,
see Joseph A. Pechman, Federal Tax Policy, Fifth Edition, Appendix A, 1987
 10

C reduced exemption amount for each dependent from $400 to $350

Current Tax Payment Act of 1943
C imposed withholding of income tax by employers on wages paid
C canceled 75-100% of lower of 1942 or 1943 individual income tax liability
Revenue Act of 1943
C increased excise taxes on alcohol, jewelry, telephones, admissions, etc.
C increased excess profits tax rate from 90% to 95%
C lowered Victory tax rate from 5% to 3% and repealed postwar credit
Individual Income Tax Act of 1944
C raised individual income taxes
C repealed 3% Victory tax
C standardized value of personal exemptions at $500 per person
Revenue Act of 1945
C repealed excess profits tax
C reduced individual income tax rates 3 percentage points and 5% (top rate fell from 94% to 86.45%)
C reduced corporate tax rates (top rate dropped from 40% to 38%)
Revenue Act of 1948
C reduced individual income tax rates 5-13%
C increased personal exemption amount from $500 to $600
C permitted married couples to split their incomes for tax purposes
C provided additional exemption for taxpayers age 65 and over
Revenue Act of 1950
C eliminated portion of the individual income tax rate reductions from 1945 and 1948 Acts
C eliminated 53% corporate tax rate Abubble;@ increased top corporate rate from 38% to 45%
Excess Profits Tax of 1950
C increased top corporate tax rate from 45% to 47%
C created temporary excess profits tax of 30% (thru 6/30/53)
Revenue Act of 1951
C temporarily increased individual income tax rates (thru 1953)
C temporarily increased corporate tax rates 5 percentage points (thru 3/31/54)
C temporarily increased excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco, gasoline, and autos (thru 3/31/54)
Excise Tax Reduction Act of 1954
C temporarily extended 1951 excise tax increases (thru 3/31/55)
C reduced excise tax rates on telephones, admissions, jewelry, etc.
Internal Revenue Code of 1954
C temporarily extended 5 percentage point increase in corporate tax rates (thru 3/31/55)
C increased depreciation deductions by providing additional depreciation schedules
C created 4% dividend tax credit for individuals
Revenue Act of 1962
C established 7% investment tax credit
C required information reporting to government for interest and dividend payments
Revenue Act of 1964
C reduced individual tax rates (top rate dropped from 91% to 70%)
C reduced top corporate tax rate from 52% to 48%
C phased-in acceleration of corporate estimated tax payments (thru 1970)
 11

C created minimum standard deduction of $300 + $100/exemption (total $1,000 max)

Tax Adjustment Act of 1966
C accelerated scheduled acceleration of corporate estimated tax payments
Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968
C created temporary 10% income tax surcharge on individuals (thru 6/30/69)
C created temporary 10% income tax surcharge on corporations (thru 6/30/69)
C delayed scheduled reduction in telephone and auto excise taxes
Tax Reform Act of 1969
C phased-in increase in personal exemption amount from $600 to $750
C repealed investment tax credit
C increased minimum standard deduction from $300 plus $100/capita (total max $1,000) to $1,000
C phased-in increase in percentage standard deduction from 10% to 15%
C temporarily extended income tax surcharge at 5% annual rate (thru 6/30/70)
C established individual and corporate minimum taxes
C established new tax rate schedule for single taxpayers
C delayed scheduled reduction in telephone and auto excise taxes
C lowered maximum tax rate on earned income from 70% to 50%
Revenue Act of 1971
C reinstated investment tax credit (no basis adjustment)
C repealed 7% auto excise tax, which was due to phase-out in 1982
C replaced 3/4-year depreciation convention with 2-year convention
C increased minimum standard deduction from $1,000 to $1,300
C accelerated scheduled increases in personal exemption amount and percentage standard deduction
Tax Reduction Act of 1975
C provided 10% rebate on 1974 tax liability ($200 cap)
C created temporary $30 general tax credit for each taxpayer and dependent
C temporarily increased investment tax credit to 10% (thru 1976)
C temporarily increased minimum standard deduction to $1,900 (joints) (1 year, 1975)
C temporarily increased percentage standard deduction to 16% (1 year, 1975)
Tax Reform Act of 1976
C increased percentage standard deduction to 16% ($2,800 max) and minimum s.d. to $2,100 (joints)
C temporarily extended general tax credit (max of $35/capita or 2% of $9,000 of income)(thru 1977)
C delayed decrease in investment tax credit from 10% to 7% (thru 1980)
C expanded individual minimum tax
C created unified rate schedule for estate and gift taxes with $175,000 exemption
C temporarily lowered small business tax rates (thru 1977)
C increased long-term capital gains holding period from 6 months to 1 year
Tax Reduction and Simplification Act of 1977
C replaced percentage standard deduction (s.d.) and minimum s.d. with single s.d. of $3,200 (joints)
C temporarily extended general tax credit (max of $35/capita or 2% of $9,000 of income)(thru 1978)
Revenue Act of 1978
C reduced individual taxes (widened tax brackets and reduced number of tax rates)
C increased personal exemption amount from $750 to $1,000
C reduced corporate tax rates (top rate dropped from 48% to 46%)
 12

C increased standard deduction from $3,200 to $3,400 (joints)

C increased capital gains exclusion from 50% to 60%
C repealed nonbusiness deduction for state and local gasoline taxes
Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980
C created temporary excise tax on crude oil profits (phased-out by end of 1993)
C created several business energy tax credits
C temporarily increased $200 dividend exclusion (joints) to $400 and expanded to include interest
Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981
C phased-in 23% cut in individual tax rates; top rate dropped from 70% to 50%
C accelerated depreciation deductions; replaced depreciation system with ACRS
C indexed individual income tax parameters (beginning in 1985)
C created 10% exclusion on income for two-earner married couples ($3,000 cap)
C phased-in increase in estate tax exemption from $175,625 to $600,000 in 1987
C reduced Windfall Profit taxes
C allowed all working taxpayers to establish IRAs
C expanded provisions for employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs)
C replaced $200 interest exclusion with 15% net interest exclusion ($900 cap) (begin in 1985)
Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982
C repealed scheduled increases in accelerated depreciation deductions
C tightened safe harbor leasing rules
C required taxpayers to reduce basis by 50% of investment tax credit
C instituted 10% withholding on dividends and interest paid to individuals
C tightened completed contract accounting rules
C increased FUTA wage base and tax rate
Highway Revenue Act of 1982
C temporarily increased gasoline excise tax from 4 cents to 9 cents (thru 9/30/88)
Social Security Amendments of 1983
C accelerated scheduled increases in Social Security payroll tax rate
C instituted taxation of some Social Security benefits
C raised self-employed OASDHI rate to combined employee-employer rate, with SECA credit
C extended mandatory Social Security coverage to non-profit and new federal employees
Interest and Dividend Tax Compliance Act of 1983
C repealed scheduled 10% withholding on dividends and interest paid to individuals
Deficit Reduction Act of 1984
C repealed scheduled 15% net interest exclusion ($900 cap)
C reduced benefits from income averaging
C reduced tax benefits for property leased by tax-exempt entities
C temporarily extended telephone excise tax (thru 1987)
C increased depreciation lives for real property from 15 years to 18 years
Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985
C permanently increased cigarette excise tax to 16 cents per pack
C extended Medicare coverage to new state and local employees
Tax Reform Act of 1986
C reduced individual income tax rates (top rate 28%) and repealed capital gains exclusion
 13

C repealed investment tax credit

C lowered corporation income tax rates; top rate lowered to 34 percent

C increased personal exemption amount from $1,080 to $2,000

C set uniform capitalization rules for manufacturing or construction

C increased standard deduction from $3,670 to $5,000 (joints)

C limited deduction for nonbusiness interest

C repealed second earner deduction

C limited passive losses

C established income limits on use of IRAs for taxpayers covered by pensions

C revised corporate minimum tax

C repealed sales tax deduction for individuals

C set 2-percent floor on miscellaneous itemized deductions

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987

C repealed installment method for dealers

C temporarily extended telephone excise tax (thru 1990)

C eliminated ESOP estate tax deduction loophole

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989

C modified employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs)

C established excise tax on ozone-depleting chemicals

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990

C increased income cap on Medicare taxes to from $53,400 to $125,000

C temporarily extended and increased gasoline tax (thru 9/30/95)

C created new 31% individual tax rate; capped capital gains rate at 28%

C permanently extended telephone excise tax

C temporarily limited itemized deductions (thru 1995)

C temporarily extended and increased air transportation excise taxes (thru 1995)

C temporarily phased-out personal exemptions (thru 1995)

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993

C created 36% and 39.6% tax rates for individuals

C repealed income cap on Medicare taxes

C increased transportation fuels taxes by 4.3 cents per gallon

C increased taxable portion of Social Security benefits

C permanently extended phase-out of personal exemption and limit on itemized deductions

C created 35% tax rate for corporations

Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996

C reduced possessions tax credit

C phased-in increase in small business expensing limit

Tax Relief Act of 1997

C established $500 child tax credit

C established HOPE and Lifetime Learning education tax credits

C extended air transportation excise taxes

C phased-in increase in estate tax exemption equivalent from $600,000 to $1 million in 2006

C lowered top capital gains rate from 28% to 20%

C established Roth IRAs; increased income limits for deductible IRAs

 14

C conformed AMT depreciation lives to regular tax lives

C phased-in 15-cent per pack increase in cigarette tax

C established education IRAs

Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001

C phased-in lowering of individual tax rates; top tax rate became 35% (thru 2010)

C created new 10% individual tax rate (thru 2010)

C phased-in increase in child tax credit to $1,000 (thru 2010)

C phased-in increase of estate tax exemption equivalent and repeal of the estate tax (thru 2010)

C phased-in marriage penalty relief provisions (thru 2010)

C phased-in repeal of limit on itemized deductions (Pease) (thru 2010)

C phased-in increase in IRA contribution limit to $5,000 (thru 2010)

C increased individual AMT exemption to $49,000 ($35,750) for joint (single) returns (thru 2004)

C phased-in repeal of limit on personal exemptions (thru 2010)

C created above-the-line deduction for higher education expenses (thru 2005)

C increased Education IRA contribution limit to $2,000 (thru 2010)

Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002

C created 30% expensing for certain capital asset purchases (thru September 2004)

C extended of exception under Subpart F for active financing income (thru 2006)

C increased carryback of net operating losses to 5 years (thru September 2003)

Jobs and Growth Tax Relief and Reconciliation Act of 2003

C lowered top individual income tax rate on dividends to 15%/5%/0% (thru 2008)
C accelerated the 2006 tax cuts from EGTRRA
C accelerated marriage penalty relief provisions from EGTRRA (thru 2004)
C accelerated child tax credit increase to $1,000 (thru 2004)
C increased individual AMT exemption to $58,000 ($40,250) for joint (single) returns (thru 2004)
C lowered top tax rate on capital gains to 15%/5%/0% (thru 2008)
C accelerated expansion of 10% individual income tax rate bracket (thru 2004)
C increased expensing for certain capital asset purchases to 50% (thru 2004)
 15

TABLE 1 - REVENUE EFFECTS OF MAJOR BILLS ENACTED BETWEEN 1940 AND 1968

Treasury full-year estimates unless otherwise noted

Tax bill Current Constant % of GDP % of federal
dollars 1992 dollars receipts
($ billions)

Revenue Act of 1940 2/

1.2 9.7 0.91 15.3
Second Revenue Act of 1940 1/ 3/
0.9 7.6 0.71 11.6
Revenue Act of 1941
3.6 27.5 2.20 32.1
Revenue Act of 1942 /2
10.0 73.4 5.04 71.4
Current Tax Payment Act of 1943 1/
2.5 18.2 1.16 6.2
Revenue Act of 1943 1/
1.0 7.3 0.46 2.4
Individual Income Tax Act of 1944 1/
-0.6 -4.2 -0.27 -1.3
Revenue Act of 1945
-5.9 -41.4 -2.67 -13.1
Revenue Act of 1948 3/
-5.0 -26.6 -1.87 -11.3
Revenue Act of 1950 2/
4.5 22.2 1.33 9.6
Excess Profits Tax of 1950 2/
3.3 16.3 0.97 6.8
Revenue Act of 1951
5.4 26.3 1.52 9.0
Excise Tax Reduction Act of 1954 2/
-1.0 -4.6 -0.24 -1.5
Internal Revenue Code of 1954 3/
-0.2 -0.8 -0.04 -0.2
Revenue Act of 1962
-0.2 -0.7 -0.03 -0.2
Revenue Act of 1964
-11.5 -44.6 -1.60 -9.0
Tax Adjustment Act of 1966 2/ 3/
5.0 18.2 0.60 3.5

1/ Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate; before 1974, JCT was called Joint Committee on Internal Revenue Taxation

2/ Estimate is from Congressional Record; unclear if estimate is from Treasury or JCT

3/ Estimate is for year after enactment

 16

TABLE 2 - REVENUE EFFECTS OF MAJOR BILLS ENACTED SINCE 1968

Number of years after enactment First-2-yr 4-year

Tax bill 1 2 3 4 average average
Current dollars (in billions)

Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968 16.0 4.7 N/A N/A 10.4 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1969 3.8 2.4 N/A N/A 3.1 N/A
Revenue Act of 1971 -4.4 -6.9 N/A N/A -5.7 N/A
Tax Reduction Act of 1975 -9.8 0.4 N/A N/A -4.7 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1976 -15.3 -11.9 -7.1 N/A -13.6 N/A
Tax Reduction and Simplification Act of 1977 -17.8 -13.7 -5.8 N/A -15.8 N/A
Revenue Act of 1978 -11.5 -22.8 -26.7 -30.6 -17.2 -22.9
Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 13.0 18.4 18.8 21.0 15.7 17.8
Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 -38.3 -91.6 -139.0 -176.7 -65.0 -111.4
Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 17.3 38.3 42.2 52.1 27.8 37.5
Highway Revenue Act of 1982 1.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 2.8 3.3
Social Security Amendments of 1983 6.2 8.8 9.3 11.4 7.5 8.9
Interest and Dividend Tax Compliance Act of 1983 -2.6 -2.4 -2.1 -1.7 -2.5 -2.2
Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 9.3 15.9 21.6 24.6 12.6 17.9
Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 0.9 2.7 3.0 3.0 1.8 2.4
Tax Reform Act of 1986 18.6 0.9 -11.7 -9.0 9.8 -0.3
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 9.1 14.3 16.2 15.6 11.7 13.8
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 5.7 3.5 3.6 5.4 4.6 4.6
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 23.2 35.0 31.9 36.5 29.1 31.7
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 24.3 45.3 52.5 65.9 34.8 47.0
Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996 -0.6 -0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.3
Tax Relief Act of 1997 -9.4 -3.8 -18.6 -20.9 -6.6 -13.2
Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 -34.4 -85.5 -104.0 -103.7 -60.0 -81.9
Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 -46.0 -27.3 3.8 20.8 -36.7 -12.2
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (normal, 2004-07) -136.6 -78.0 -8.9 -1.4 -107.3 -56.2
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2003-06) -41.7 -136.6 -78.0 -8.9 -89.1 -66.3

Constant 1992 dollars (in billions)

Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968 55.3 15.4 N/A N/A 35.4 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1969 12.5 7.5 N/A N/A 10.0 N/A
Revenue Act of 1971 -13.2 -19.5 N/A N/A -16.4 N/A
Tax Reduction Act of 1975 -21.9 0.8 N/A N/A -10.5 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1976 -32.4 -23.8 -13.5 N/A -28.1 N/A
Tax Reduction and Simplification Act of 1977 -35.5 -25.8 -10.3 N/A -30.6 N/A
Revenue Act of 1978 -21.0 -39.0 -43.2 -47.4 -30.0 -37.6
Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 19.8 25.7 24.2 25.1 22.8 23.7
Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 -54.9 -123.7 -178.9 -217.2 -89.3 -143.7
Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 23.7 50.0 52.5 61.9 36.8 47.0
Highway Revenue Act of 1982 2.3 5.0 4.9 4.6 3.6 4.2
Social Security Amendments of 1983 8.2 11.1 11.3 13.3 9.7 11.0
Interest and Dividend Tax Compliance Act of 1983 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -3.2 -2.8
Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 12.0 19.7 25.6 28.1 15.8 21.3
Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 1.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.8
Tax Reform Act of 1986 22.4 1.0 -13.1 -9.8 11.7 0.1
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 10.7 16.2 17.7 16.5 13.4 15.3
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 6.2 3.6 3.6 5.2 4.9 4.7
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 24.1 34.9 30.7 33.9 29.5 30.9
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 22.9 41.6 46.9 57.1 32.3 42.1
Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.6 -0.2
Tax Relief Act of 1997 -8.2 -3.3 -15.6 -17.1 -5.7 -11.0
Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 -28.3 -69.1 -82.6 -80.8 -48.7 -65.2
Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 -37.7 -22.0 3.0 16.2 -29.9 -10.1
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (normal, 2004-07) -110.2 -62.1 -7.0 -1.1 -86.1 -45.1
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2003-06) -34.2 -110.2 -62.1 -7.0 -72.2 -53.4
 17

TABLE 2 - REVENUE EFFECTS OF MAJOR BILLS ENACTED SINCE 1968

(CONTINUED)

Number of years after enactment First-2-yr 4-year

Tax bill 1 2 3 4 average average
Revenue effect as percentage of GDP

Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968 1.74 0.45 N/A N/A 1.09 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1969 0.39 0.21 N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Revenue Act of 1971 -0.38 -0.50 N/A N/A -0.44 N/A
Tax Reduction Act of 1975 -0.58 0.02 N/A N/A -0.28 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1976 -0.81 -0.57 -0.30 N/A -0.69 N/A
Tax Reduction and Simplification Act of 1977 -0.85 -0.59 -0.22 N/A -0.72 N/A
Revenue Act of 1978 -0.49 -0.89 -0.95 -0.99 -0.69 -0.83
Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 0.44 0.56 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.50
Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 -1.21 -2.60 -3.58 -4.15 -1.91 -2.89
Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 0.53 1.07 1.08 1.23 0.80 0.98
Highway Revenue Act of 1982 0.05 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.09
Social Security Amendments of 1983 0.17 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.20 0.21
Interest and Dividend Tax Compliance Act of 1983 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.07 -0.05
Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 0.24 0.37 0.47 0.49 0.30 0.39
Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.05
Tax Reform Act of 1986 0.41 0.02 -0.23 -0.16 0.22 0.01
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 0.19 0.28 0.30 0.27 0.24 0.26
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.07
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 0.41 0.57 0.49 0.52 0.49 0.50
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 0.36 0.64 0.70 0.83 0.50 0.63
Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00
Tax Relief Act of 1997 -0.11 -0.04 -0.20 -0.22 -0.08 -0.14
Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 -0.33 -0.77 -0.89 -0.84 -0.55 -0.71
Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 -0.42 -0.24 0.03 0.16 -0.33 -0.12
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (normal, 2004-07) -1.19 -0.65 -0.07 -0.01 -0.92 -0.48
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2003-06) -0.38 -1.19 -0.65 -0.07 -0.79 -0.57

Percentage change in federal receipts because of tax bill

Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968 9.4 2.6 N/A N/A 6.0 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1969 1.9 1.2 N/A N/A 1.6 N/A
Revenue Act of 1971 -2.2 -3.0 N/A N/A -2.6 N/A
Tax Reduction Act of 1975 -3.2 0.1 N/A N/A -1.5 N/A
Tax Reform Act of 1976 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 N/A -3.5 N/A
Tax Reduction and Simplification Act of 1977 -4.3 -3.2 -1.2 N/A -3.7 N/A
Revenue Act of 1978 -2.5 -4.3 -4.5 -4.5 -3.4 -3.9
Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4
Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 -5.7 -12.3 -16.5 -18.6 -9.0 -13.3
Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 3.0 6.3 6.3 7.2 4.6 5.7
Highway Revenue Act of 1982 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Social Security Amendments of 1983 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2
Interest and Dividend Tax Compliance Act of 1983 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3
Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 1.3 2.0 2.6 2.7 1.7 2.1
Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Tax Reform Act of 1986 2.3 0.1 -1.2 -0.9 1.2 0.1
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 2.2 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 2.0 3.5 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.5
Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax Relief Act of 1997 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.1 -0.4 -0.7
Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 -1.7 -3.9 -4.4 -4.2 -2.8 -3.6
Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 -2.4 -1.3 0.2 0.9 -1.9 -0.7
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (normal, 2004-07) -6.3 -3.4 -0.4 -0.1 -4.8 -2.5
Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2003-06) -2.2 -6.3 -3.4 -0.4 -4.2 -3.1
 Figure 1 - Tax Bill Revenue Estimates as a Percentage of GDP, 1940 - 1967
(Full-year effect unless otherwise noted)

4
Percentage of GDP

-2

-4

18
-6
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
40 40 41 42 43 43 44 45 48 50 50 51 54 54 62 64 66
a b* a b * a b a b* *

* indicates revenue estimate is for first year after enactment Tax Bill

1940a Revenue Act of 1940

1951 Revenue Act of 1951

1940b Second Revenue Act of 1940

1954 Excise Tax Reduction Act of 1954

1941 Revenue Act of 1941

1956 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1956

1942 Revenue Act of 1942

1957 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1957

1943a Current Tax Payment Act of 1943

1958 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1958

1943b Revenue Act of 1943

1959 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1959

1944 Individual Income Tax Act of 1944

1962 Revenue Act of 1962

1945 Revenue Act of 1945

1964a Revenue Act of 1964

1948 Revenue Act of 1948

1964b Excise Tax Rate Extension Act of 1964

1950a Revenue Act of 1950

1966 Tax Adjustment Act of 1966

1950b Excess Profits Tax on 1950

 Figure 2 - Tax Bill Revenue Estimates in Constant Dollars, 1940 - 1967

(Full-year effect unless otherwise noted)
100
Billions of 1992 Dollars

50

-50

19
-100
19

19

19

19

19

19

19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19
41

42

44

45

51

62

64
40

40

43

43

48

50

50

54

54

66
a

b*

b*

*
Tax Bill
* indicates revenue estimate is for first year after enactment

1940a Revenue Act of 1940

1951 Revenue Act of 1951

1940b Second Revenue Act of 1940

1954 Excise Tax Reduction Act of 1954

1941 Revenue Act of 1941

1956 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1956

1942 Revenue Act of 1942

1957 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1957

1943a Current Tax Payment Act of 1943

1958 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1958

1943b Revenue Act of 1943

1959 Tax Rate Extension Act of 1959

1944 Individual Income Tax Act of 1944

1962 Revenue Act of 1962

1945 Revenue Act of 1945

1964a Revenue Act of 1964

1948 Revenue Act of 1948

1964b Excise Tax Rate Extension Act of 1964

1950a Revenue Act of 1950

1966 Tax Adjustment Act of 1966

1950b Excess Profits Tax on 1950

 Figure 3 - Tax Bill Revenue Estimates as a Percentage of GDP, 1968 - 2003

(Annual average for first two years after enactment)
6

4
Percentage of GDP

-2

-4

20
-6
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19 b

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20
19

19 a

19 b

19 a

20

20 a
68

69

71

75

76

77

78

80

81

84

85

86

87

89

90

93

96

97

01

02
82

82

83

83

03

03
b
Tax Bill

1968 Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968

1984 Deficit Reduction Act of 1984

1969 Tax Reform Act of 1969

1985 Consolidated Omnibus Budge Reconciliation Act of 1985

1971 Revenue Act of 1971

1986 Tax Reform Act of 1986

1975 Tax Reduction Act of 1975

1987 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987

1976 Tax Reform Act of 1976

1989 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989

1977 Tax Reduction and Simplification Act of 1977

1990 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990

1978 Revenue Act of 1978

1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993

1980 Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980

1996 Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996

1981 Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981

1997 Tax Relief Act of 1997

1982a Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982

2001 Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001

1982b Highway Revenue Act of 1982

2002 Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002

1983a Social Security Amendments of 1983

2003a Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2004-05)

1983b Interest and Dividend Tax Compliance Act of 1983

2003b Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2003-04)

 Figure 4 - Tax Bill Revenue Estimates in Constant Dollars, 1968 - 2003

(Annual average for first two years after enactment)
100
Billions of 1992 Dollars

50

-50

21
-100
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19 b

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20
19

19 a

19 b

19 a

20

20 a
68

69

71

75

76

77

78

80

81

84

85

86

87

89

90

93

96

97

01

02
82

82

83

83

03

03
b
Tax Bill

1968 Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968

1984 Deficit Reduction Act of 1984

1969 Tax Reform Act of 1969

1985 Consolidated Omnibus Budge Reconciliation Act of 1985

1971 Revenue Act of 1971

1986 Tax Reform Act of 1986

1975 Tax Reduction Act of 1975

1987 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987

1976 Tax Reform Act of 1976

1989 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989

1977 Tax Reduction and Simplification Act of 1977

1990 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990

1978 Revenue Act of 1978

1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993

1980 Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980

1996 Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996

1981 Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981

1997 Tax Relief Act of 1997

1982a Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982

2001 Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001

1982b Highway Revenue Act of 1982

2002 Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002

1983a Social Security Amendments of 1983

2003a Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2004-05)

1983b Interest and Dividend Tax Compliance Act of 1983

2003b Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (2003-04)