Professional Documents
Culture Documents
GBUS 448
Global Markets Report
27 November 1 December 2017
Highlights
LATAM:
Brazils economy in Q3 grows 1.4% year-on-year, slightly above forecast 1.3%.
Chiles economy in Q3 grows 2.2% YoY, matching market expectations.
Colombias central bank cuts interest rate 25 basis points to 4.75%, surprising markets.
Mexicos GDP growth in Q3 slows to 1.5% YoY, slightly below forecast of 1.6%.
Peru reaches lowest inflation level since May 2010 with 1.54% YoY change in consumer prices.
EMEA:
Egypt posts strong economic indicators this quarter, including 5.2% GDP growth YoY.
Greece completes successful 30-billion-euro debt swap, sets stage for return to capital
markets.
Poland defies European Commission with proposed changes to judiciary
OPEC and Russias 9-month oil production cut extension pushes Brent above $64 per barrel.
South Africas debt rating is cut to junk status by S&P amid ongoing political turmoil.
Turkey granted license to begin accepting deposits from Chinas 3rd largest bank in January.
ASIA:
China announces new interest rate controls as EU removes it from nonmarket economies
list.
India approaches budgeted fiscal deficit while Q2 growth rate ticks back up to 6.3% YoY.
Indonesias inflation falls to 3.3% in November, hitting an 11-month low below expectations.
Malaysias ringgit continues to strengthen but will face headwinds in 2018.
South Korean central bank surprises with 25 bps interest rate increase to 1.5%.
Taiwans market share hits twenty-seven year high due to reliance on tech stocks.
Thailands investment spending to increase 52% in 2018 as political parties probe alliances.
BRAZIL
Country Analyst: Antonio Quintanilla
Economy shows positive growth for third consecutive quarter
Brazils economy is showing gradual signs of recovery with 1.4% YoY GDP
growth, above forecasts of 1.3%. Brazils third-quarter expansion of 0.1%while
minimal and below the forecast 0.3%makes this the third consecutive period
in which the economy has shown positive growth after a multi-year recession. The agricultural sector in
particular saw positive growth of 14.5% from the beginning of the year through the third quarter, while
manufacturing fell 0.9% and the services sector fell 0.2% during the same period. Year-to-date growth in
GDP stands at 0.6%, and analysts believe 1% growth for full-year 2017 is still feasible.
2
Trading Economics, Reuters
CHILE
Country Analyst: Chandler Payne
3
Chilean economy grows 2.2% in third quarter
The Chilean economy grew 2.2% YoY in Q3 2017, matching market expectations. It marked the strongest
expansion since Q1 2016 as spending rose faster, exports rebounded, and investment fell less. Mining
activity rebounded prominently, growing at 7.5%.
Trading Economics
Chilean stocks reach 4-month low on election results and China demand
The Chilean stock index (IPSA) reacted sharply (-5.9%) to market-preferred candidate Sebastin Pieras
closer-than-expected first round result on November 20, sinking to its lowest level since July. Although
the index rebounded slightly through the middle of the week, projections of weaker Chinese demand for
raw materials has caused Chilean mining and metals stocks to slide. As of 27 November, the index was
10.4% below its 31 October peak.
4
Yahoo Finance, Diario Financiero, Bloomberg
COLOMBIA
Country Analyst: Rushika Shekhar
Central bank cuts interest rate 25 bps to 4.75%, surprising market
Five of seven Colombian Central Bank board members voted to cut the interest
rate 25 basis points to 4.75%. The move surprised market expectations and left
the interest rate at its lowest level since September 2015 amid better-than-
expected inflation and weak growth. It is now expected that more cuts may come to try and revive the
economy. The bank has also followed Chiles example, reducing the frequency of its policy decisions
from 12 to 8 per year, which gives board members more time to weigh changing indicators.
Bloomberg
5
Crude oil production up, gas production down in October
Crude oil production increased 1.4% from September, reaching 863,853 barrels per day. On an annual
basis, Colombias oil output has risen 2% over October 2016 and remains above the 840,000 target set
by the governments medium-term fiscal plan. Gas production meanwhile reduced 0.49% from
September.
Markets Insider
Trading Economics
Coffee as a dividend of peace: Nespresso investment cited as proof that peace deal is working
Nespresso has extended its relationship with Colombia, pledging a $50 million investment in high-quality
production in a previously conflict-prone region, Caqueta. President Juan Manuel Santos has cited the
investment of a sign that coffee will be a dividend of peace for the nation and the end of conflict will
open up opportunities for rural development in areas that were previously inaccessible to foreign
investment. The implementation and outputs of the peace deal have been rocky so far, but productivity
has seemed to be rising in some areas. Colombia is the worlds third-largest coffee producer and is well-
known for its more expensive Arabica varieties. Expanding coffee plantation to former conflict areas has
been a key growth strategy for the government, with some programs aiming to incentivize current coca
farmers to migrate to coffee.
6
Bloomberg
MEXICO
Country Analyst: Jacob Haberman
If elected, Obrador vows stable economy and crackdown on financial crime
In a 415-page manifesto published last week, leftist presidential front-runner
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador continued to outline his presidential platform
and sought to deflect accusations that he would pursue Venezuela-style socialist
policies if elected. He cited the need to boost infrastructure spending, guard economic stability,
postpone NAFTA negotiations until after the July election, and tighten money laundering, banking, and
tax regulations related to financial crime. Critics paint him as a challenge to Mexicos celebrated neo-
liberal movement, attacking his plan to scrap a $13 billion Mexico City airport project and the
privatization reforms currently underway in the energy sector.
Reuters, Reuters
7
Annual GDP Growth Rate
September retail sales growth of -0.3% also largely confirms our view that high inflation and interest
rates are having real impacts on consumer purchasing power. The November Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers Index (PMI) had a strong reading of 52.40, in-line with our thesis for the potential upside for
manufacturing and investment through the end of the year and into 2018, after the confidence crisis
that hurt investment earlier this year.
Retail Sales Annual Growth
Reuters
8
Banxico
PERU
Country Analyst: Giulia Martins
Peru reaches its lowest inflation level since May 2010
Inflation rate (YoY) in September was 1.54%, 50 bps below previous month
consumer prices. This was the lowest inflation rate since 2010. Consumer
prices decreased 0.2% when compared to October. The decrease in food and
beverage prices partially explain the decrease. After the floods in the first
semester of 2017, food and beverage prices in Peru rose significantly. However, as the country recovers
from the damages, prices have been falling. This month was the third consecutive month Peru
experienced a decrease of consumer prices on a monthly basis.
9
Trading Economics, Reuters
Gestion
Perus stock market falls on decrease in gold prices and developments of Odebrecht investigations
Graa y Montero stocks keep falling as Odebrecht investigations develop. Four previous partners of
Odebrecht are current under investigation with pretrial custody hearing scheduled for Sunday morning.
The corruption scandal links not only Peruvian executives, but also Peruvian politicians to the massive
corruption scheme of the Brazilian company.
10
On another front, the largest mineral company in Peru, Buenaventura, has experienced losses during the
past days due to a decline in gold prices. An increase in positive sentiment regarding the US economy
drove gold price down this week. Gold is Perus second largest export product; therefore, changes in the
commodity price directly affect Peruvian markets.
Bloomberg
Kitco, Gestion
11
Egypt
Country Analyst: Olivia Rockwell
Bloomberg
12
Egypts largest bank CIB signs $100 million subordinated loan agreement with IFC
The Commercial International Bank will receive a $100 million subordinated loan from the International
Finance Corporation (IFC) with a ten-year maturity date. This is part of an ongoing IFC investment
strategy to stimulate credit in Egypt, which will increase to $1.5 billion in 2018 from $1 billion in 2017.
CIB Enterprise Egypt
Greece
Country Analyst: Friederike Kaiser
Greece completes 30-billion-euro debt swap, offer exceeds 86% take-up
Greece successfully completed a 30-billion-euro voluntary bond swap on
Wednesday, exchanging 20 bonds for new issues with maturities between 5 and
25 years, and interest rates from 3.544.2%. Take-up of the swap by bond-
holders hit 86%. Greece hopes this swap will improve market liquidity and ensure full market access
before the countrys planned bailout.
Financial Times, Reuters
13
Greek banks to clear 20 billion euros of irretrievable NPLs
Greeces systemic banks have identified 20 billion euros in loansroughly one-fifth of all non-
performing loans (NPL)as irretrievable. These include loans made to businesses that have ceased
operations and whose equipment is worthless, loans made to freelancers who have left their profession,
loans of the long-term unemployed, as well as mortgage loans for properties that have significantly
decreased in value. Bank officials and monitoring authorities agree that dealing with these bad loans in a
sustainable fashion must remain a priority for lenders. Officials say that Greek banks will meet their NPL
reduction targets for 2017. The ratio of NPLs on Greek banks loan books was 107 billion euros, or 51%,
last year. Banks have agreed to bring that ratio down to 34%, around 67 billion euros, by 2019.
Ekathimerini, Reuters
14
Eurozone economic sentime
Poland
Country Analyst: Jackie Bakalarski
Polish parliament expected to rule to remove many Supreme Court judges
Polands right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) on Thursday added two new laws
to its agenda that, if approved, would allow the government to remove an
estimated 40% of its Supreme Court judges, a move which some say is unconstitutional as it effectively
gives PiS control over the judicial system. These reforms will probably pass next week since in the PiSs
control over parliament means it can fast-track bills. If Poland proceeds, the European Commission has
threatened to apply Article 7 of the EU Treaty, which could lead to a loss of Polands EU voting rights.
Politico
Shale gas exploration in Poland comes to an end with exit of Irish firm, San Leon
For the time being, shale exploration does not look like it will continue in Poland. Irish firm San Leon
decided to return its 11 exploration licenses to the government amid persistently low oil prices, which
have sapped interest in natural gas, especially unconventional shale drilling. Twenty licenses remain
outstanding on the governments books for PGNIG, Orlen, Lotos and Shale Tech, but these investors are
either looking for oil or conventional gas reserves or have discontinued exploration work. The boom in
shale oil exploration and investment came in 20112013, inspired by the experience in the US. However,
three factors make its continuation in Poland unlikely at this time: the low price of oil, the challenging
15
Polish geography, and the lack of sites compared to the US (only 72 versus hundreds in the US), which
reduces the economies of scale and increases the risk of not finding a viable site.
Emerging Europe
Russia
Country Analyst: Johnny Kim
OPEC and Russias 9-month oil production cut extension pushes Brent above $64
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, jumped 2.4% to a three week high
of $64.32 per barrel on news that the worlds biggest oil producers successfully
signed to extend a deal to curb production by 1.8 million barrels throughout 2018.
The deal, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia,
was an effort to prop up prices above $60
per barrel in the medium-term. While high
oil prices would directly benefit Russias
public and private sector revenues, proper
implementation of the deal will prove crucial
in attaining the desired price range.
16
Lukoil sees 78% jump in Q3 profits year-on-year
According to Russias largest privately held oil producer Lukoil, net profits in the third quarter jumped
78% year-on-year, beating analyst estimates. Net profits rose to Rbs 97.3bn ($1.7bn) compared to
estimates of Rbs 91.2bn, while revenue increased an annual 13% to Rbs 1.48tn. These numbers were
driven mostly by the 7% jump in global oil prices compared to a year ago. According to the company,
other contributing factors included higher sales prices, higher gas production in Russia and Uzbekistan,
and decreased transportation expenses.
Financial Times
South Africa
Country Analyst: Arjun Krishnan
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reaching $7 billion.
Bloomberg
Zuma budget plan to deal with downgrades risks further damage
South Africas plan to cut spending and raise taxes to stave off further debt downgrades may have
unintended consequences that stunt the economic growth being demanded by ratings companies.
President Zuma stated his intention to cut spending by R25 billion ($1.8 billion) in next years budget and
find ways to add R15 billion to the nations revenue in ways that include, but are not limited to, tax
increases. Analysts and investment officers predict that any increase in taxes will have a dampening
effect on growth prospects. Finance Minister Gigaba will announce the details of the planned spending
cuts and revenue increases in the 2018 budget on February 21.
Moneyweb
Bloomberg
18
Turkey
Country Analyst: Duy Mai
US-Turkey relations further strained as Turkey seeks arrest of former CIA official
On 1 December, the Istanbul Prosecutors Office issued an arrest warrant for Graham Fuller, a former
vice-chairman of the National Intelligence Council of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The arrest
warrant alleges that Fuller and an American academic, Henri Barkey, helped organize the failed coup in
2016 while they were in Turkey during that period. Turkish prosecutors also believe there is a
connection between Fuller and Fethullah Gulen, whom Turkey alleges to be the coups mastermind. This
development adds complications to the already strained relationship between Washington and Ankara.
As reported earlier, the relationship suffered setback after a visa spat following the arrests of employees
of the US consulate, as well as the ongoing trial of Iranian-Turkish gold traders in the US. Additionally,
the Turkish lira has deteriorated in recent months (TUR/USD stands at 3.91), in response to high
inflation and the uncertain political situation.
Hurriyet Daily News
19
CHINA
Country Analyst: Kartik Vadlapatla
Trading Economics
20
Trading Economics
Non-Manufacturing PMI
The official Non-Manufacturing PMI in China increased to 54.8 in November of 2017 from 54.3 in the
preceding month. New orders rose at a faster rate (51.8 from 51.1 in October), new export orders went
up for the second straight month (50.9 from 50.7) and business sentiment strengthened markedly (61.6
from 60.6). At the same time, orders in hand (44.1 from 43.9) declined less amid shortening suppliers'
delivery time (51.6 from 51.1) while employment contracted for the eleventh consecutive month. The
services sector accounted for over half of the country's economy last year.
Trading Economics
China announces new controls on interest rates, bans unlicensed small loans
China issued new rules to ban unlicensed micro-loans a week after directing provincial governments to
suspend approvals for new online lenders. These measures follow President Xis call to control leverage
after the Communist Party Congress. The party is concerned about social inequalities and fears raised
about these business which often involve small, unsecured loans ($151 bn) with periods of six months or
less targeting people with limited access to credit services such as students and rural migrants. Known
as cash loans, these credit services usually require no collateral but charge high interest rates.
A recent report by Chinas National Committee of Experts on Internet Financial Security Technology, a
government-backed industry organization, estimated that there were 2,693 online platforms in China
offering short-term loans to nearly 10 million clients. Usually interest rates on such loans are quite high
(above 100%) and are now capped to 36% (including upfront fees). In addition, lenders need to clearly
specify charges and are barred from lending to customers with no income, extend, overborrow or
forcibly collect. Predictably, shares of listed online borrowers have reacted negatively.
21
Bloomberg, Caixing Global
22
Bloomberg
Russia Yuan Bond sale: To prepare for looming EU and US sanctions, the Russian Finance ministry has
made plans to issue yuan denominated bonds. The bonds are worth nearly $1 bn which while not a
significant amount represent a growth in relations between Russia and China. A report due next quarter
from the U.S. Treasury on the potential consequences of extending penalties to include Russian
sovereign debt has increased pressure on the Finance Ministry to seek out alternative means of
borrowing. China is also Russias biggest trading partner.
Bloomberg
INDIA
Country Analyst: Jason Yoo
New IBC ordinance poses potential hurdles in restructuring NPAs
Two weeks ago, a significant amendment was added to the Insolvency and
Bankruptcy Code (IBC). Overall, the amendment seeks to improve the
effectiveness of turnarounds completed under the IBC framework as well as
to reduce future negligence by business-owners. The newly amended IBC
bans the following parties from participating in the auction process for defaulting companies assets:
guarantors to the debtor, those with loans classified as non-performing assets for at least a
yeardirectors in companies that are disqualified those who have been found to have struck
fraudulent transactions with the firm, and connected entities. The amendment is a welcome one, since
many of the companies currently struggling under debt owe much of their troubles to the negligence or
malintent of their promoters. However, although a positive development for Indias bankruptcy
framework, the amendment has also resulted in some short-term challenges. For example, there is
some speculation that the current wording of the amendment may ban global private-equity firms from
participating in the bidding process. In addition, since the introduction of the amendment, several
parties involved in bankruptcy proceedings have asked for extensions in the workout process, ostensibly
because of a shortage in bidders since the amendment.
LiveMint, LiveMint
India almost reaches its budgeted fiscal deficit; GST collections low
Indias fiscal deficit at the end of October (beginning April) was at 96.1% of the total budgeted amount.
Meanwhile, total revenue government receipts were at 48.1% of the budget estimate. The relatively low
revenue receipts data coincides with October being the worst month of GST collections since the
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introduction of the new tax regime. Total GST collections for the month of October stood at $12.9
billion. These data-points, in conjunction with the Q2-GDP growth figures, suggest a potential
predicament for the Indian government. Even if the economy shows signs of softness this fiscal year, the
government has very limited room for fiscal spending to boost GDP figures. In addition, technical
glitches with the introduction of the GST as well as the rate cuts introduced on November 15th could
lead to lower-than-budgeted revenue collection, in which case the fiscal deficit would exceed the target
without an offsetting benefit.
LiveMint, Bloomberg
24
Indias infrastructure output increases 4.7% in October
Indias infrastructure output increased 4.7% year-over-year in October, which is the same pace of
growth as in the month of September. The healthy growth in the core infrastructure industries bodes
well for the countrys Q3 economic performance, as core infrastructure activity accounts for nearly 40%
of Indias industrial output.
Trading Economics
TradingEconomics
China Development Bank files petition for bankruptcy against Reliance Communications
China Development Bank filed a petition for bankruptcy against Reliance Communications (RCom) this
week, after RCom failed to service $7 billion of debt owed to domestic and international creditors in
November. The petition has taken RCom in surprise, as China Development Bank has been actively
participating in the out-of-court restructuring of RComs debts. If the petition is admitted, RCom will
have 18 months to resolve its bankruptcy; otherwise, the company will be forced to liquidate its assets.
China Development Banks petition highlights the importance of the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy
Code in providing a means for international creditors to have an exit in case their loans sour.
The Financial Times, LiveMint
25
India Hosts Global Entrepreneurship Summit (GES)
Per former-President Obamas decision during his administration, India hosted the Global
Entrepreneurship Summit (GES) this year, which is an annual convention of global entrepreneurs,
investors and supporters. The theme of the GES for this year was Women First, Prosperity for All. That
India hosted the GES demonstrates not only the countrys continuing emergence as a hub of innovation
and global business activity but also the strengthening ties between India and the United States.
LiveMint
INDONESIA
Country Analyst: Katrina Knisely
Trading Economics
26
Indonesias Speaker of Parliament detained in $173m graft case
Speaker of Indonesia's parliament Setya Novanto last week was detained by anti-corruption
investigators over the biggest graft scandal to hit Indonesias legislature. He has been implicated in five
corruption scandals since the 1990s but never convicted. While he denies any wrongdoing, Setya was
most recently accused of embezzling more than $170 million from a government procurement contract
to introduce a national biometric identification card. The Indonesian parliament has long been perceived
as Indonesias most corrupt institution by watchdogs and by its own citizens, and this is unlikely to
change regardless of the outcome of the case. Indonesia last year placed 90th out of 176 countries on
Transparency International's corruption perception index.
Reuters, New York Times
Economic impact of this years Bali volcano eruptions estimated at $1.47 billion
The heightened volcanic activity of Mount Agung on the Indonesian resort island of Baliwhich sits
within the Pacific Ring of Firehas kept many tourists away, causing economic losses estimated at $1.47
billion since September, when signs of an impending eruption first began. Alerts were raised to the
highest levels last weekend as eruptions forced the closure of the islands main airport and evacuation
of thousands of residents. Tourism represents 11% of the countrys $932 billion economy, and two out
of every five foreign tourists to Indonesia visit Bali. Authorities expect the volcano to remain active for
some time, and visitors are likely to continue to drop off sharply during the holiday season, which will
further take a toll on Indonesias economy.
WSJ, Nikkei
MALAYSIA
Country Analyst: Gregory Bernstein
27
Ringgit recovery and strength hinges on a confluence of 2018 factors
As the new year approaches, significant speculation continues about the sustainability of the ringgits
rally. Bloomberg analysts have reported almost weekly about the currencys strength against the dollar
and this report has covered previous arguments as to why the ringgit is a good buy in the short term.
However, the ringgits sustained value is becoming increasingly tied to a confluence of factors occurring
in the next year. First, after keeping interest rates steady two weeks ago, it is widely expected that
Malaysias central bank will raise rates early in 2018 (perhaps even in January). This would signal good
news about the health of the economy. However, a general election in the first months of 2018 is
appearing less likely than a few weeks ago, but still possible. Although Prime Minister Najib and his party
are expected to win and thereby maintain current policies, the inherent electoral uncertainty and the
likely rate hike in the US may serve to mute long-term enthusiasm in the ringgits strength. According to
Julian Wee of National Australia Bank, this confluence of factors could prove negative for the ringgit in
2018. These include the general election domestically, an accelerated climb in U.S. bond yields and a
possible slowing of Malaysias economic growth.
Demand for Malaysian durian continues to rise, driven by unrealized Chinese markets
In terms of agricultural commodities, Malaysia and its Southeast Asia neighbors historically have been
known for their production of palm oil. However, a recent demand uptick in China is drawing attention
to a somewhat obscure Malaysian agricultural product, the durian. A spikey fruit with a strange smell,
the durian has not been viewed as a significant trade good until recently. According to the United
Nations, Chinese demand for the fruit has grown steadily over the past decade and the value of Chinas
fresh imports of the fruit has climbed an average of 26% a year, reaching $1.1 billion in 2016. Although
Thailand currently dominates the durian market, Chinese consumers have shifted their buying
preferences to Malaysian durian and according to Ahmad Maslan, Malaysias deputy minister for
international trade and industry, durians and durian-based products are among the most-searched
items in China on sites like Alibaba. With nearly 45,550 durian farmers in Malaysia, a Chinese market
entry is being viewed as a significant Malaysian investment opportunity.
28
NST, Bloomberg
Malaysia hosts 2017 Global Innovation Summit, named top emerging economy
This past week, Kuala Lumpur hosted the 2017 Global Innovation Summit, the first time the event has
been held in Southeast Asia. Although the Summits overall purpose is to focus on global economic
trends and themes, the host economy featured prominently as the World Economic Forum (WEF)
named Malaysia the most competitive economy amongst its peers. According to Global Federation of
Competitiveness Councils (GFCC) president and US Council on Competitiveness (USCC) Deborah Wince-
Smith, Malaysias availability of a pool of skilled workers, rising labor productivity and a lower cost base
rated it ahead of its peers including Indonesia, Thailand, India and Vietnam. Although ratings such as
these are rarely serve as significant market movers, international bodies such as WEF continue to affirm
Razak Najibs scandal-ridden tenure and complement his National Transformation Aspiration to
become a Top 20 Nation in the world by 2050.
NST, The Malaysian Reserve, GIS
PHILIPPINES
Country Analyst: Bilal Kayani
Manufacturing sector sustains growth
The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) jumped to 54.8
in November 2017 from 53.7 in the previous month. This was the highest
reading in a year, indicating a faster pace of improvement in operating
conditions for a third straight month. Much of this improvement has been
attributed to strong domestic economic conditions and higher foreign demand. However,
manufacturers continued to feel the pressure of cost inflation because of the weakness in the peso and
shortage of raw materials. With cost inflation rising, manufactures have raised prices to pass on to
consumers. What will be closely monitored is the Central Banks reaction to further rises in global raw
material costs, and the combination
of a weak peso will most certainly
result in tightening of businesses
profit margins.
29
Trading Economics, Nikkei, Philstar
30
Bloomberg Bloomberg
SOUTH KOREA
Country Analyst: Beatrice Gohdes
Bank of Korea raises interest rate from a record-low 1.25% to 1.5%
In a surprising move, the Bank of Korea raised its interest rate by 25 bps on
Thursday, as the continuous export boom lifts the economy, private
consumption has improved moderately and investments have been strong.
This decision marks the first change in interest rate since May 2016, and a
move away from stimulus policies. As worries about job market conditions persist, the BOK was careful
to stress that the road to normal level interest rates will be long though, making another rate hike in the
near future unlikely. Still, the direction of future policy decisions seems set, as Koreas monetary policy
moves into tightening territory.
31
month high. Combined with increased construction activity, these growth drivers offset disappointing
growth numbers from utilities.
Debt relief for 1.6 million low-income Koreans to come from countrys Happiness Fund
Koreans who struggle to repay small debts of less than $9,128 can apply for debt relief from the
government as of February 2018. The plan could clear as much as 6.2 trillion won in bad debts, mainly
funded out of the national Happiness Fund, which was created to help poor Koreans manage their
debt by restructuring it. Household debt is a significant worry in South Korea, as debt levels have been
rising faster than wages. This policy could act as a boost to domestic consumption.
BBC
TAIWAN
32
Country Analyst: Nikunj Beria
Taiwan share market reaches 27-year high due to technology stocks
Taiwans stock market is correlated with the technology sector in the US, mainly Apple stock. Due to the
gain of technology sector in the S&P 500 on 21 November, the tech-heavy Taiwan SE Weighted Index
added as much as 1 per cent to hit its highest point in more than 27 years.
Financial Times
Financial Times
Formosa Plastics Group plans $15 billion worth of projects in US
Plastic is heavily correlated with semi-conductor technology since it is used for the creation of
chips. Taiwans largest petrochemical producer, Formosa Plastics Group has made a
33
commitment of investing $15 billion in US states. The projects are focused in southern states of
Texas and Louisiana, mainly in the production of ethylene. Increase Environmental standards in
Taiwan is driving the company to US locations. Additionally, Taiwanese companies such as FPG
and Foxconn are attracted to state incentives in the US and also due to the competition faced in
mainland China where their production plants currently exist.
Nikkei Asian Review
THAILAND
Country Analyst: Christian Conroy
State enterprise investment spending to increase by 52% in 2018
The State Enterprise Policy Office (SEPO) announced on Wednesday that state
enterprises will increase investments by 52% to a total of 796.34 billion baht
($24.4 billion) in 2018. As part of the investment increase, SEPO will require
state enterprises to improve investment plans in order to ensure that the disbursement of the
investment budget aligns to the actual disbursements. According to Deputy Prime Minister Somkid
Jatusripitak, enterprises will also boost the disbursement of investment budgets to no less than 95% of
the total investment budget next year, a target far above the current 70% disbursement rate. State
enterprise investment has increased 9.2% YoY for the first nine months of this year.
The Nation
Major Thai political parties considering alliance ahead of November 2018 elections
Speaking at a seminar organized by the Thai Journalists Association on Sunday, Democrat deputy leader
Nipit Interasombat, Pheu Thai figure Chaturon Chaisang, and Chartthaipattana party member Warawut
Silpa-archa discussed the possibility of the three parties forming a coalition party ahead of democratic
elections scheduled to take place in November 2018. While the figures downplayed the likelihood of
forming an alliance in an environment where the government still has in place a ban on political
activities, Chaisang did stress that the alliance would be worth considering if it meant keeping a non-
elected outsider from assuming the position of prime minister. According to a poll carried out by Suan
Dusit Rajabhat University last month, 41% of Thai citizens want new political parties ahead of next years
election. For the time being, the parties are instead focusing on recruitment drives in order to ensure
that their membership databases meet requirements ahead of a 5 January deadline.
Bangkok Post | Bangkok Post
34
has seen 10 million low income earners invest almost 100% of welfare stipends of 300 baht ($9) back
into the Thai economy. With the end of a year-long mourning period for the late Thai king and the
implementation of year-end shopping tax breaks, the Thai government is hoping to continue growing
the Thai economy after posting a 4.3% YoY growth rate in the third quarter.
Business Mirror
35
Appendix: Macroeconomic Overview
LATAM
Indicator Latest (to previous) Reference Period Frequency
Brazil
GDP Growth 0.1% (-0.1%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 2.70% (0.16%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 7.5% (-0.75%) Oct 2017 (9th cut this year)
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 69.5% (6.2%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -9.0% (+1.2%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -1.3% (2.0%) Dec 2016 Annual
Chile
GDP Growth 2.2% (1.0%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 1.90% (0.40%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 2.50% (unch.) Nov 2017 Monthly
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 21.3% (3.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.2% (-0.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -1.4% (0.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
Colombia
GDP Growth 2.0% (0.7%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 4.05% (0.08%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 4.75% (-0.25%) Nov 2017 Last lowered Nov 2017
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 47.6% (-3.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.8% (-0.7%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -4.4% (2.0%) Dec 2016 Annual
Mexico
GDP Growth GDP Growth Sep 2017 Monthly
Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Nov 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate Interest Rate Oct 2017 Monthly
Debt-to-GDP Ratio Debt-to-GDP Ratio Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance CA Balance Dec 2016 Annual
Peru
GDP Growth GDP Growth GDP Growth GDP Growth
Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate
Interest Rate Interest Rate Interest Rate Interest Rate
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Debt-to-GDP Ratio Debt-to-GDP Ratio Debt-to-GDP Ratio Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance
CA Balance CA Balance CA Balance CA Balance
EMEA
Indicator Latest ( to Reference Period Frequency
previous)
Egypt
GDP Growth Rate 4.1% (+0.7%) Oct 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 30.8% (-0.8%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 18.75% (unch.) Oct 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 92.3% (+7.3%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -5.9% (-2.3%) Oct 2017 Annual
Fiscal Balance -9.8% (+1.8%) Dec 2016 Annual
Greece
GDP Growth Rate 0.5% (unch.) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 0.7% (-0.3%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 0% (unch.) Sept 2017 ~Monthly
Debt-to-GDP 179.0% (+0.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance 0.7% (+6.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -0.6% (-0.7%) Dec 2016 Annual
Poland
GDP Growth Rate 1.1% (unch.) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 2.1% (-0.1%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.5% (unch.) Oct 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 54.4% (+3.3%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.4% (+0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -0.3%(0.3%) Jun 2016 Annual
Russia
GDP Growth Rate 1.8% (-0.7%) Nov 2017 Annual
Inflation Rate 2.7% (-0.3%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 8.25% (-0.5%) Oct 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 17% (-1.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.7% (-1.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 1.8% (-3.3%) Jun 2017 Annual
South Africa
GDP Growth 2.5% (-0.6%) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 5.1% (+0.3%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 6.75% (unch.) Sep 2017 ~Monthly
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 51.7% (+2.4%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.9% (+0.2%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance to GDP -3.3% (+1.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Turkey
GDP Growth Rate 2.1% (+0.8%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
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Inflation 11.2% (+ 0.62%) Sep 2017 Annual
Interest Rate 8% (unch.) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Debt-to-GDP 28.3% (+0.8%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -1.1% (-0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance - 3.8% (-0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
ASIA
Indicators Latest ( to previous) Reference Frequency
China
GDP Growth Rate 6.8% (-0.1%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 1.90% (+0.19%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 4.35% (unch.) Sep 2017 ~Monthly
Debt-to-GDP 46.20% (-0.4%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.8% (-1.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 1.80% (-0.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
India
GDP Growth Rate 6.3% (+0.6%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 3.58% (+0.30%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 6.00% (unch.) Oct 2017 ~Quarterly
Debt-to-GDP 69.54% (-0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.2% (+0.3%) Feb 2017 Annual
CA Balance -2.4% (+0.36%) Dec 2016 Quarterly
Indonesia
GDP Growth Rate 5.05% (+.05%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 3.3% (-0.28%) Nov 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 4.25% (-0.25%) Sep 2017 ~Monthly
Debt-to-GDP 27.90% (+1.00) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.46% (+0.12) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -1.80% (+0.20) Dec 2016 Annual
Malaysia
GDP Growth Rate 1.3% (-0.5%) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 4.3% (+0.7%) Aug 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 3.0% (unch.) Sep 2017 Update expected Jan 3
Debt-to-GDP 53.2% (-1.3%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.2% (+0.3%) Dec 2015 Annual
CA Balance 1.3% (-1.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
Philippines
GDP Growth Rate 6.9% (+0.4%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 3.4%(+3.00%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 3.0% (unch.) Oct 2017 ~Monthly
Debt-to-GDP 42.1% (-2.95%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.4% (-1.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 0.2% (-0.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
South Korea
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GDP Growth Rate 3.8% (+1.1%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 1.5% (-0.3%) Nov 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.5% (+0.25%) Nov 2017 ~Quarterly
Debt-to-GDP 38.6% (+0.8%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.4% (-0.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 6.99% (-0.71%) Dec 2016 Annual
Taiwan
GDP Growth Rate 3.1% (+0.82%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate -0.32% (-0.82%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.38% (unch.) Sep 2017 ~Monthly
Debt-to-GDP 31.2% (-0.4%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -1.4% (+0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 13.4% (-0.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
Thailand
GDP Growth Rate 3.7% (+0.4%) June 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 0.86% (+0.54%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.5% (unch.) Sep 2017 ~Monthly
Debt-to-GDP 41.2% (-2.7%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.7% (-.02%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 11.5% (3.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
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