Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nick Bilton
Bilton, Nick.
I live in the future and here’s how it works / Nick Bilton.—1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes index.
1. Technological forecasting. 2. Technology—Social aspects. 3. Computers
and civilization. 4. Ubiquitous computing. I. Title.
T174.B53 2010
303.48'34—dc22 2010026870
ISBN 978-0-307-59111-1
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
First Edition
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i 3 u
author’s note ix
introduction
cancel my subscription 1
1.
bunnies, markets, and the bottom line
porn leads the way 19
2.
scribbling monks and comic books
it’s ok—you’ve survived this before 45
3.
your cognitive road map
anchoring communities 77
4.
suggestions and swarms
trusting computers and humans 103
5.
when surgeons play video games
our changing brains 133
6.
me in the middle
the rise of me economics 161
7.
warning: danger zone ahead
multiple multitasking multitaskers 197
8.
what the future will look like
a prescription for change 227
epilogue
why they’re not coming back 263
acknowledgments 267
notes and sources 271
index 285
Dear Reader,
of these codes that will then take you to the additional content
directly on your mobile phone.
Become part of the I Li ve in the Future community by
commenting on chapters of interest and joining a continuing
discussion with me and your fellow readers online at nickbilton.com
and with the free I Li ve in the Future app for iPhone and iPad.
Times Research Labs, helping the Old Gray Lady find her
place in mobile phones, on the computer screen, and in video,
and my workplace infidelity remained my own private busi-
ness. Then, in spring 2009, I appeared on a roster of speak-
ers for the geeky O’Reilly Emerging Technology Conference
in San Jose, California, aimed at cutting-edge technology de-
velopers. A Wired magazine reporter attending the conference
asked for an interview.
Like a good corporate citizen, I checked with the Times
public relations folks to make sure the interview was OK. Once
they gave the go-ahead, I sat down with reporter Ryan Singel.
For over an hour, I showed Singel some of the prototypes
from the Times research labs, such as the inner workings of our
digital living room, where content can move seamlessly from
my computer to a phone and back to a big-screen television. I
showed him how videos on my computer of cookbook author
and “Minimalist” columnist Mark Bittman whipping up a dish
can appear instantly on my television while the recipe pops up
on my phone. Every device could be connected to the others,
and the stories I read on the computer could be illustrated with
maps or video interviews on the TV, computer, or phone. Some
day, I explained, sensors in the couch might alert the television
or the computer to turn to my favorite shows or sites, or sensors
in my phone might detect when I’m in the car and prompt in-
formation to be read aloud instead of displayed. For those who
still want to read on paper, newspaper boxes might print out a
personalized version—with customized advertising and even
the ability to notify a nearby Starbucks that I was headed in
for coffee.
I talked excitedly about some of our prototype mobile
and then sliding some more. Daily circulation, which had been
close to 1.2 million in the early 1990s, was close to 1 million
at the time of my speech and would slip below the seven-figure
mark later in 2009.
Print circulation told only part of the story. With a deep and
painful recession accompanying a technological shift, advertis-
ers have abandoned print papers even faster than subscribers
have. Industrywide, revenue from print advertising has fallen
off a cliff, plunging to $24.8 billion in 2009 from $47.4 billion
in 2005, according to the Newspaper Association of America.
That’s a decline of nearly half in five years.
Newspapers are far from the only medium to face such ago-
nizing declines. The digital revolution is roiling just about every
form of media we know: Book sales in 2009 slipped to the low-
est level since 2004, according to the Association of American
Publishers. The Publishers Information Bureau reported that
although magazine subscriptions have grown slightly, advertis-
ing pages sold dropped more than 25 percent in 2009. Despite
the growing popularity of Blu-ray discs and a healthy box office,
DVD sales fell 8 percent in 2008. The music industry has been
hit hardest of all. Worldwide dollar sales have fallen every year
for a decade—and the bottom is nowhere to be found. In 2009,
CD sales fell more than 20 percent in both dollars and units. Al-
though digital downloads are up and now account for about 40
percent of music sold, the revenue they bring in doesn’t begin
to make up for the disappearing disk sales.
Given this revolutionary shift in how we read, listen, and
enjoy entertainment, shouldn’t the Times be asking why I pre-
fer digital to print and exploring how I consume my news?
Shouldn’t we be moving forward and not backward?
My first job at the Times was as the art director of the Busi-
ness and Circuits sections. Soon enough, my boss found out
that I could both write stories and write computer code, and
I was secretly assigned to a new digital reading collaboration
project between Microsoft and the Times. (The project, called
Times Reader, built a new kind of digital newspaper for tablet
computers.) From there, I moved into two new research and
technology-integration roles. For three years, I was the user
interface specialist and researcher in the research and develop-
ment department at the New York Times Company. The R&D
Labs, as they are called, focused on a variety of projects, in-
cluding building and prototyping mobile phone applications
and working with device manufacturers to try to influence the
boundaries of e-readers and the coming flexible screens. We
also wrote short “white papers” for the company, exploring
and explaining the implications of unlimited wireless Internet
or doing informed speculative research on upcoming technol-
ogies and how they will affect the way we create, consume, and
deliver content in the next few years. Our core mission in R&D
was looking into the future to try to forecast how the technol-
ogy and media worlds will work in the next two to ten years—
what gadgets we’ll use, the media we will consume, and what
advertising will accompany those channels.
Simultaneously, I worked in the newsroom as design inte-
gration editor, charged with rethinking how the print narra-
tive can morph and adapt to a digital form. More recently, I’ve
joined the business section writing staff as the lead blogger for
Bits, the paper’s technology blog.
When I looked at all the different jobs I’ve been involved
with over the last fifteen years—from advertising, writing,
This Story
emerged in the last few years. I will take you deep into the con-
sumnivore’s new world, explaining how navigation, aggrega-
tion, and the narrative are changing.
To get a feel for the future as it exists now, we will go on
a swing through the California porn industry, which through
history has kept a step ahead of traditional outlets in trying
new ideas and experimenting with the latest innovations in
media. Then, to reassure you and put today’s changes into
perspective, we’ll take a walk through history to see how radi-
cal new developments time and again have prompted fear and
upheaval before proving their immense worth to society—and
why we’ll survive this sea change as well.
From there, I will lead us off the cliff into the shifting riv-
ers, starting with our changing communities. Social networks,
the openness of the Internet, and handy new devices are more
than new ways to share photos, offer opinions, or waste time.
As we struggle to make sense of the flood of information, gos-
sip, and data gushing from the World Wide Web, these devel-
oping networks are providing crucial anchors that help us find
our way. They help us determine what news and information
we will trust and what we will ignore. As these new commu-
nities evolve and develop, they are profoundly changing how
media outlets reach readers, how companies find customers,
and even how we find and nurture our friends.
From there, I’ll address the notion that our brains can’t
handle all this fast-paced stuff by diving into how these devel-
oping technologies are engaging our brains and how our brains
are adapting to the volume of information flying at them from all
directions. As part of that, I will take a closer look at one of the
more successful of the current storytelling genres, video games,
Sincerely,
Nick Bilton