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Share data (NOKm) 16-Sep-10 From regional farming to global VAP next years
Sector Aquaculture
Reuters/ Bloomberg SALM Over two decades of acquiring plants and licenses Salmar ASA has grown to
Risk rating Medium
the number 3 position among Norwegian salmon farmers. Around 80% of the
Salmar’s Norwegian production capacity is based in Mid-Norway with the
Outst shares (mill) 103.0
remainder in Troms (Northern Norway). In addition, Salmar ASA owns 50% of
Market cap 5 202
Scottish Seafarms through Norskott. The most recent acquisition was Rauma-
NIBD 953
Gruppen (72.8%) from 3Q 2010, adding further farming capacity in Mid-
EV 6 154 Norway.
Free float % <55
Average volume 10 019 Within a fistful of months Salmar will start production at InnovaMar, the
High/ low 52w 57.2 / 39.5 behemoth VAP processing plant newly built on the island of Frøya at Kverva. It
Weight OSEBX % 0.3331 will have more than sufficient capacity to process all the Mid-Norway salmon
Rel. Perf % (3/6/12 mts) -07/ 05/ 05
production of Salmar in addition to that of a number of third parties in the
Abs. Perf. % (3/6/12 mts) -05/ 06/ 23
region. This bold move marks a major change in business strategy from
primarily selling whole fish (HOG) to becoming key player in salmon pre/post
rigor fillets. At the same time, Salmar is significantly strengthening its sales
organisation through Volstad and Rauma to enable servicing the key fillet
markets on a global scale.
Needless to say, the switch comes with both promises and risks. The
advantage will be in terms of better quality, more efficient distribution logistics
and a better environmental profile. The risks come from the plant and concept
Salmar – From regional farming to global
VAP next years being new and untested. Furthermore, the processing cost itself can easily be
bettered in a lower cost country.
Given the uncertainty tied to the un-tested InnovaMar unit we prefer to be a
little conservative when estimating the share value. We suggest a P/E adj. of 8
based on our 2011 forecast which represents full year effect of the new VAP
and Rauma (incl. a liquidity discount). This translates into a target share price
of NOK 57.
FONDSFINANS ASA, HAAKON VII’S GATE 2, P.O.BOX 1782 VIKA, NO-0122 OSLO, TEL: +47 23 11 30 00, FAX: +47 23 11 30 03, mail@fondsfinans.no
We refer to important information written later in this report
Salmar ASA Initial coverage
General Description
Among the big boys Salmar ASA got listed in May 2007 at NOK 39 per share. With an annual
production capacity just above 80kt in 2011 Salmar is # 3 player in terms of
Norwegian salmon farming production.
10-20 year streak of Following its incorporation in 1991, Salmar has developed into its present form
acquisitions through a series of bold and successful acquisitions.. These have mostly been
salmon farming licenses and facilities, but in 2007 they also bought additional
smolt production capacity at Straumsnes nearby Kristiansund.
The most recent acquisition (from 3Q 2010) of a 72.8% stake in Rauma
Gruppen. This purchase adds another 6 farming licenses in Mid-Norway
(Romsdalsfjorden) in addition to 2 broodstock farms (parent fish and egg
production). The table below illustrates farming licenses of Salmar group divided
into regions.
Salmon farming Salmar Group Licenses MAB (t) Smolt sites
Møre og Romsdal 15 11 700 1
Sør-Trøndelag 20 15 600 2
Mid-Norway, core Organic licenses (Labor Rouge) 3 2 340
farming region Nord-Trøndelag 5 3 900 1
Rauma-gruppen (72.8%) 6 4 680 2
Rauma broodfish farms (72.8%) 2 1 560
Total Mid-Norway (incl Rauma) 51 39 780 6
Senja Sjøfarm (South of Troms) 10 9 000 2
Alsvåg (Uløya, Nordreisa, Northern Troms) 3 2 700 0
Total Northern Norway 13 11 700 2
Total Norway (Mid and North) 64 51 480 8
Assosiated licenses, Region Mid (contract) 3 2 340
R&D licenses (SINTEF contracted) 3 2 340
R&D license (VESO contracted) 1 780
Total Norway, included other licenses 71 56 940 18-20 mill
2010E production (Norway) 71 74 890
1H 2010 Rauma group production 3 900
2010 Biomass utilization (MAB-yield) 1.110
Scottish Seafarms production (50%) 37 23 700 5
Source: Salmar/Fondsfinans. MAB=Maximum Allowed Biomass.
Processing and In 2009 Salmar produced 14.5kt of processed products whereas the great
distribution majority of its farming output was brought to market as whole fish (HOG). Salmar
also harvests and process farmed salmon on behalf of external fish farmers (3.
party processing).
The main processing plant (InnovaMar) at the island of Frøya is presently being
expanded and upgraded to have an annual capacity of 70kt per personnel shift.
More about that later.
Location and The company headquarter is on the island of Smøla in the Møre og
management Romsdal county on the NW ‘corner’ of South Norway.
The company CEO Leif Inge Nordhammer has a 25 year long and
Around 570 employees outstanding track record within the fish-farming industry.
in Salmar group The company’s original founder Gustav Witzøe is responsible for
VAP business development and implementing the new InnovaMar
VAP strategy.
Transparency. . Presently, the company does not break out the performance of its farming,
processing and 3.party processing in its financial reporting. This makes it difficult
.. or lack thereof to 100% verify or refute Salmar’s claim to be among the most efficient operators
in the industry. Presently, comparing Salmar to industry benchmarks such as
EBIT/kg could be misleading. As shown in the table above, we estimate the
biomass/production yield to 1.11 which is some above industry peers, but not
best in class this year whereas we have examples of MAB-yield of around 1.2-
1.25.
According to the company, the financial reporting structure will be revised from
2011 and onwards. A key objective is to break out value added processing as a
separate business unit for reporting purposes and guide some more on the fixed
contracts and its price levels. As an illustration, 2Q estimates were too high
compared with reporting numbers.
Financial information
Revenues In 2009 group turnover was nearly NOK 2.4bn, but this figure will easily be
surpassed in 2010 on the back of the strong market for farmed salmon. For the
first 6 months of 2010 turnover was NOK 1.3bn which is 37% above the previous
year.
EBIT EBIT (before IFRS) was NOK 585m in 2009, i.e. an EBIT margin of 24.6%. For
the first 6 months of 2010 EBIT was NOK and the margin was 25.5%.
EPS Earnings per share (before IFRS) were NOK 4.60. During the first 6 months of
2010 EPS adj. was NOK 2.76 which is approx. 65% improvement on last year.
Debt Group net interest bearing debt was NOK 953m, but this is will escalate during
2H10 as they pay NOK 316m in cash for the Rauma group (72.8%) while they
will consolidate in a debt of approximately NOK 128m. Further, the working
capital in farming will increase in 3Q due to higher seasonal standing biomass.
Strong balance Nevertheless, Salmar has a strong balance with an Equity Ratio around the 50%
mark. In May this year Salmar paid around 40% dividend of EPS (DPS=2.2).
Next years we forecast 40% dividend as well.
Market price – strong Current spot prices (HOG / FOB Oslo) are in the NOK 33 – 35 / kg range having
seasonal prices in 2H come down from above NOK 40 during this summer. We believe the spot prices
this year due to lack of during 2H10 will swing between NOK 30 – 35.
Chilean fish in the
marked Salmar has fixed price contracts, probably comparable to Marine Harvest and
Cermaq at about NOK 34.50 / kg. We guess this applies to about 20% of
production volume in 2H10.
Salmar EBIT (NOK/KG) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
SalMar Mid-Norway 14.98 9.40 7.61 10.08 13.92 12.87 11.37
We estimate around SalMar Northern-Norway - 2.11 2.87 5.46 9.97 9.07 8.57
same EBIT level in Norskott Havbruk (50%) 10.55 4.20 2.48 6.27 9.46 8.78 7.74
2011 as in 2010 – (full Salmar EBIT (MNOK) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
effect of the Rauma SalMar Mid-Norway 534 425 322 507 806 810 723
SalMar Northern-Norway - 15 32 86 170 169 159
transaction in 2011) Norskott Havbruk (50%) 212 100 56 166 224 210 191
Farming EBIT Norway 534 440 355 593 976 979 882
Source: Fondsfinans. Inclusive Rauma-group from 2H 2010
Our forecasts Our forecasts in the table above include the InnovaMar operation. But the
company does not plan to report the processing as a separate entity until 2011,
hence our forecasts follow the old financial reporting form until then. We have
recommended the management to enter into more segment transparency. It
seems that the company will increase number of P&L segments from 2011 and
onwards.
Definitions of ratings
Buy Low risk: with a potential of min 5%. Medium risk: with a potential of min 10%. High risk: with a
potential of min 15%.
Neutral Low risk: -5% to +5%. Medium risk: -10% to +10%. High risk: -15% to +15%.
Sell Low risk: min 5%. Medium risk: min 10%. High risk: min 15%.
Risk ratings are based on price volatility, fundamental criteria and perceived risk. Ratings are: Low (L), Medium (M) and High (H).
Recommendation distribution as of 06.09.10: Companies in each recommendation category that have been
investment banking clients over the past 12 months:
Recommendation No Percent Recommendation No Percent
Buy 46 87 % Buy 9 20 %
Neutral 5 9% Neutral 0 0%
Sell 2 4% Sell 0 0%
Total 53 100 % Total 9
Fondsfinans may hold shares in Salmar as a result of daily trading/market making. Information on such holdings is not given when of
non-significant value.
Financial data (MNOK) 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e
Operating income 1 714 2 377 3 376 3 685 3 637 456 688 757 618 660 980 1118
EBITDA 393 656 1055 1059 967 119 246 201 172 194 350 336
EBITDA-margin 23% 28% 31% 29% 27% 26% 36% 27% 28% 29% 36% 30%
EBIT before adj biomass 338 585 967 970 873 102 225 175 153 173 327 313
EBIT-margin 20% 25% 29% 26% 24% 22% 33% 23% 25% 26% 33% 28%
Fair value adjustment of biomass -33 -5 220 0 0 202 -161 14 194 26 0 0
EBIT after adjustments 305 580 1 187 970 873 304 65 189 346 200 327 313
Associates (Norskott 50%) 12 57 94 76 69 25 7 10 42 26 14 12
Other financial items -62 -10 -49 -28 -28 -8 7 -4 -11 -21 -10 -7
Earnings before tax 235 634 1 232 1 018 914 327 78 194 378 205 331 319
Taxes -66 -163 -313 -265 -238 -85 -20 -53 -94 -50 -86 -83
Result from period 169 471 920 753 677 242 57 142 284 155 245 236
Minority share of result 0.3 -0.1 8.1 16.0 16.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 4 4
Net profit adjusted 202 476 691 737 661 90 173 132 144 136 241 232
Outstanding shares (mill) 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103
EPS 1.64 4.57 8.85 7.16 6.41 2.35 0.56 1.38 2.75 1.50 2.34 2.25
EPS adj. 1.96 4.68 6.81 7.26 6.50 0.88 1.70 1.30 1.42 1.34 2.37 2.28
DPS 0.40 2.20 3.54 2.86 2.57
CEPS 1.41 5.16 6.47 7.01 5.91 1.35 0.20 2.73 1.40 0.83 1.93 2.31
Impl. cash flow per kilo fish 2.24 6.71 7.69 7.72 6.44 9.37 0.81 11.77 9.07 6.04 7.38 8.02
Multiples:
EV/ Sales 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.6
EV/ EBITDA 9.1 5.8 5.7 6.1
EV/EBIT, before adj. n.m. 6.4 6.2 6.7
P/ E adj n.m. 7.5 7.1 7.9
P/B 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.3
Norwegian volumes (HOG)
Mid-Norway (43 licences+ assosierte) 42 300 50 300 57 890 62 921 63 550 10 600 14 800 16 500 9 600 9 100 18 100 21 090
Northern-Norway (13 licenses) 11 300 15 800 17 000 18 600 18 600 1 500 7 000 3 100 2 100 2 000 6 700 6 200
Norwegian volumes (t) 53 600 66 100 74 890 81 521 82 150 12 100 21 800 19 600 11 700 11 100 24 800 27 290
Farming EBIT Mid-Norway 322 507 806 810 723 87 181 173 131 142 260 274
Sale/HOG volumes 40.2 46.5 54.1 54.0 53.0 43.2 46.6 43.8 65.6 70.0 49.6 45.8
EBIT-margin (NOK/kg) 7.6 10.1 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.2 12.2 10.5 13.6 15.5 14.3 13.0
Farming EBIT Northern-Norway 32 86 170 169 159 17 52 3 23 31 75 40
Sale/HOG volumes 24.3 25.4 34.3 33.6 32.6 37.1 22.1 25.0 34.9 38.1 35.6 31.6
EBIT-margin (NOK/kg) 2.9 5.5 10.0 9.1 8.6 11.1 7.4 1.0 10.9 15.7 11.2 6.5
UK farming (HOG) 50% ownership - Assosiates
Scottish Sea Farms (37 sites) 22 700 26 400 23 700 23 973 24 723 5 500 6 700 8 500 8 300 6 300 4 300 4 800
Sale/HOG volumes 34.1 34.9 36.2 35.2 34.2 36.7 35.8 34.8 34.4 39.3 36.3 35.3
Farming EBIT UK 56 166 224 210 191 42 39 52 73 80 38 34
EBIT-margin (NOK/kg) 2.5 6.3 9.5 8.8 7.7 7.7 5.8 6.1 8.7 12.7 8.8 7.1
EBIT Norskott (SALM Associates) 12 57 104 76 69 31 10 14 42 36 14 12
Elimination to EBIT -17 -8 -9 -9 -9 -2 -7 -1 -1 1 -7 -1
Balanse Sheet (IFRS MNOK) 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e No Shareholders (10.08.2010) Shares (1000) Pst
Total fixed assets 1 796 1 959 2 519 2 703 2 895 1 Kverva AS 55 000 53.4%
Total current assets 1 256 1 462 1 848 2 057 2 252 2 Folketrygdfondet 8 222 8.0%
Total assets 3 052 3 422 4 367 4 761 5 147 3 JP Morgan Chase Bank 6 741 6.5%
Total equity 1 315 1 700 2 397 2 786 3 168 4 Odin Norge 4 793 4.7%
Total long-term liabilities 1 309 1 316 1 313 1 318 1 323 5 Pareto Aksje Norge 4 593 4.5%
Total equity and liabilities 3 067 3 421 4 366 4 760 5 146 6 Lin AS 2 500 2.4%
Equity share 43% 50% 55% 59% 62% 7 Odin Norden 2 348 2.3%
Return on equity 13% 31% 44% 28% 22% 8 Pareto Aktiv 2 148 2.1%
Cash flow from operations 146 532 667 722 609 9 Salmar ASA 1 400 1.4%
Cash flow from investments -194 -246 -592 -200 -170 10 Holberg Norge 833 0.8%
Cash flow from financing 42 -234 -42 -359 -290 OTHER SHAREHOLDERS 14 423 14%
Cash end period 41 93 126 288 437 TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS 103 000 100%
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