Input Data

Cost
Input Unit Value
Crude Oil Price US$/bbl 15
Capex M US$ 192,900
Facility Cost M US$ 50,033
Opex M US$ 112,540

Production Data
Monthly Yearly MSTB
Date Days Rate Np Date Rate Np
31-Jan-12 31 - 0 2012 - -
28-Feb-12 28 - 0 2013 - -
31-Mar-12 31 - 0 2014 - -
30-Apr-12 30 - 0 2015 - -
31-May-12 31 - 0 2016 - -
30-Jun-12 30 - 0 2017 13,973 5,100
31-Jul-12 31 - 0 2018 13,973 5,100
31-Aug-12 31 - 0 2019 27,945 10,200
30-Sep-12 30 - 0 2020 27,945 10,228
31-Oct-12 31 - 0 2021 27,945 10,200
30-Nov-12 30 - 0 2022 27,945 10,200
31-Dec-12 31 - 0 2023 27,945 10,200
31-Jan-13 31 - 0 2024 27,945 10,228
28-Feb-13 28 - 0 2025 16,986 6,200
31-Mar-13 31 - 0 2026 14,411 5,260
30-Apr-13 30 - 0 2027 12,192 4,450
31-May-13 31 - 0 2028 10,329 3,780
30-Jun-13 30 - 0 2029 9,590 3,500
31-Jul-13 31 - 0 2030 7,425 2,710
31-Aug-13 31 - 0 2031 7,425 2,710
30-Sep-13 30 - 0
31-Oct-13 31 - 0
30-Nov-13 30 - 0
31-Dec-13 31 - 0
31-Jan-14 31 - 0
28-Feb-14 28 - 0
31-Mar-14 31 - 0
30-Apr-14 30 - 0
31-May-14 31 - 0
30-Jun-14 30 - 0
31-Jul-14 31 - 0
31-Aug-14 31 - 0
30-Sep-14 30 - 0
31-Oct-14 31 - 0
30-Nov-14 30 - 0
31-Dec-14 31 - 0
31-Jan-15 31 - 0
28-Feb-15 28 - 0
31-Mar-15 31 - 0
30-Apr-15 30 - 0
31-May-15 31 - 0
30-Jun-15 30 - 0
31-Jul-15 31 - 0
31-Aug-15 31 - 0
30-Sep-15 30 - 0
31-Oct-15 31 - 0
30-Nov-15 30 - 0
31-Dec-15 31 - 0
31-Jan-16 31 - 0
29-Feb-16 29 - 0
31-Mar-16 31 - 0
30-Apr-16 30 - 0
31-May-16 31 - 0
30-Jun-16 30 - 0
31-Jul-16 31 - 0
31-Aug-16 31 - 0
30-Sep-16 30 - 0
31-Oct-16 31 - 0
30-Nov-16 30 - 0
31-Dec-16 31 - 0
31-Jan-17 31 13,973 433
28-Feb-17 28 13,973 824
31-Mar-17 31 13,973 1258
30-Apr-17 30 13,973 1677
31-May-17 31 13,973 2110
30-Jun-17 30 13,973 2529
31-Jul-17 31 13,973 2962
31-Aug-17 31 13,973 3395
30-Sep-17 30 13,973 3815
31-Oct-17 31 13,973 4248
30-Nov-17 30 13,973 4667
31-Dec-17 31 13,973 5100
31-Jan-18 31 13,973 5533
28-Feb-18 28 13,973 5925
31-Mar-18 31 13,973 6358
30-Apr-18 30 13,973 6777
31-May-18 31 13,973 7210
30-Jun-18 30 13,973 7629
31-Jul-18 31 13,973 8062
31-Aug-18 31 13,973 8496
30-Sep-18 30 13,973 8915
31-Oct-18 31 13,973 9348
30-Nov-18 30 13,973 9767
31-Dec-18 31 13,973 10200
31-Jan-19 31 27,945 11067
28-Feb-19 28 27,945 11849
31-Mar-19 31 27,945 12715
30-Apr-19 30 27,945 13554
31-May-19 31 27,945 14420
30-Jun-19 30 27,945 15258
31-Jul-19 31 27,945 16125
31-Aug-19 31 27,945 16991
30-Sep-19 30 27,945 17829
31-Oct-19 31 27,945 18696
30-Nov-19 30 27,945 19534
31-Dec-19 31 27,945 20400
31-Jan-20 31 27,945 21267
29-Feb-20 29 27,945 22077
31-Mar-20 31 27,945 22943
30-Apr-20 30 27,945 23782
31-May-20 31 27,945 24648
30-Jun-20 30 27,945 25486
31-Jul-20 31 27,945 26353
31-Aug-20 31 27,945 27219
30-Sep-20 30 27,945 28057
31-Oct-20 31 27,945 28923
30-Nov-20 30 27,945 29762
31-Dec-20 31 27,945 30628
31-Jan-21 31 27,945 31494
28-Feb-21 28 27,945 32277
31-Mar-21 31 27,945 33143
30-Apr-21 30 27,945 33981
31-May-21 31 27,945 34848
30-Jun-21 30 27,945 35686
31-Jul-21 31 27,945 36552
31-Aug-21 31 27,945 37419
30-Sep-21 30 27,945 38257
31-Oct-21 31 27,945 39123
30-Nov-21 30 27,945 39962
31-Dec-21 31 27,945 40828
31-Jan-22 31 27,945 41694
28-Feb-22 28 27,945 42477
31-Mar-22 31 27,945 43343
30-Apr-22 30 27,945 44181
31-May-22 31 27,945 45048
30-Jun-22 30 27,945 45886
31-Jul-22 31 27,945 46752
31-Aug-22 31 27,945 47619
30-Sep-22 30 27,945 48457
31-Oct-22 31 27,945 49323
30-Nov-22 30 27,945 50162
31-Dec-22 31 27,945 51028
31-Jan-23 31 27,945 51894
28-Feb-23 28 27,945 52677
31-Mar-23 31 27,945 53543
30-Apr-23 30 27,945 54381
31-May-23 31 27,945 55248
30-Jun-23 30 27,945 56086
31-Jul-23 31 27,945 56952
31-Aug-23 31 27,945 57819
30-Sep-23 30 27,945 58657
31-Oct-23 31 27,945 59523
30-Nov-23 30 27,945 60362
31-Dec-23 31 27,945 61228
31-Jan-24 31 27,945 62094
29-Feb-24 29 27,945 62905
31-Mar-24 31 27,945 63771
30-Apr-24 30 27,945 64609
31-May-24 31 27,945 65476
30-Jun-24 30 27,945 66314
31-Jul-24 31 27,945 67180
31-Aug-24 31 27,945 68046
30-Sep-24 30 27,945 68885
31-Oct-24 31 27,945 69751
30-Nov-24 30 27,945 70589
31-Dec-24 31 27,945 71456
31-Jan-25 31 16,986 71982
28-Feb-25 28 16,986 72458
31-Mar-25 31 16,986 72984
30-Apr-25 30 16,986 73494
31-May-25 31 16,986 74021
30-Jun-25 30 16,986 74530
31-Jul-25 31 16,986 75057
31-Aug-25 31 16,986 75583
30-Sep-25 30 16,986 76093
31-Oct-25 31 16,986 76619
30-Nov-25 30 16,986 77129
31-Dec-25 31 16,986 77656
31-Jan-26 31 14,411 78102
28-Feb-26 28 14,411 78506
31-Mar-26 31 14,411 78953
30-Apr-26 30 14,411 79385
31-May-26 31 14,411 79832
30-Jun-26 30 14,411 80264
31-Jul-26 31 14,411 80711
31-Aug-26 31 14,411 81157
30-Sep-26 30 14,411 81590
31-Oct-26 31 14,411 82037
30-Nov-26 30 14,411 82469
31-Dec-26 31 14,411 82916
31-Jan-27 31 12,192 83294
28-Feb-27 28 12,192 83635
31-Mar-27 31 12,192 84013
30-Apr-27 30 12,192 84379
31-May-27 31 12,192 84757
30-Jun-27 30 12,192 85122
31-Jul-27 31 12,192 85500
31-Aug-27 31 12,192 85878
30-Sep-27 30 12,192 86244
31-Oct-27 31 12,192 86622
30-Nov-27 30 12,192 86988
31-Dec-27 31 12,192 87366
31-Jan-28 31 10,329 87686
29-Feb-28 29 10,329 87985
31-Mar-28 31 10,329 88306
30-Apr-28 30 10,329 88616
31-May-28 31 10,329 88936
30-Jun-28 30 10,329 89246
31-Jul-28 31 10,329 89566
31-Aug-28 31 10,329 89886
30-Sep-28 30 10,329 90196
31-Oct-28 31 10,329 90516
30-Nov-28 30 10,329 90826
31-Dec-28 31 10,329 91146
31-Jan-29 31 9,590 91443
28-Feb-29 28 9,590 91712
31-Mar-29 31 9,590 92009
30-Apr-29 30 9,590 92297
31-May-29 31 9,590 92594
30-Jun-29 30 9,590 92882
31-Jul-29 31 9,590 93179
31-Aug-29 31 9,590 93476
30-Sep-29 30 9,590 93764
31-Oct-29 31 9,590 94061
30-Nov-29 30 9,590 94349
31-Dec-29 31 9,590 94646
31-Jan-30 31 7,425 94877
28-Feb-30 28 7,425 95085
31-Mar-30 31 7,425 95315
30-Apr-30 30 7,425 95537
31-May-30 31 7,425 95768
30-Jun-30 30 7,425 95990
31-Jul-30 31 7,425 96221
31-Aug-30 31 7,425 96451
30-Sep-30 30 7,425 96674
31-Oct-30 31 7,425 96904
30-Nov-30 30 7,425 97126
31-Dec-30 31 7,425 97357
31-Jan-31 31 7,425 97587
28-Feb-31 28 7,425 97795
31-Mar-31 31 7,425 98025
30-Apr-31 30 7,425 98248
31-May-31 31 7,425 98478
30-Jun-31 30 7,425 98701
31-Jul-31 31 7,425 98931
31-Aug-31 31 7,425 99161
30-Sep-31 30 7,425 99384
31-Oct-31 31 7,425 99614
30-Nov-31 30 7,425 99837
31-Dec-31 31 7,425 100067
 Production Data
Date
30,000

25,000

20,000

Oil Cum (MSTB)

15,000

10,000

5,000

-
1-Jan-12 1-Jan-15 1-Jan-18 1-Jan-21 1-Jan-24 1-Jan-2
uction Data Np (MSTB)
Date Qo (BOPD)

120000

100000

80000
Oil Rate, BOPDD

60000

40000

20000

0
an-21 1-Jan-24 1-Jan-27 1-Jan-30
 Escalating Oil Crude Price : +
Input Data
Input Unit 2012 2013 2014
Yearly Production MSTB - - -
Crude Oil Price US$/bbl 15.00 15.45 15.91
Cost
Capex M US $ 6,000 6,000 27,600
Tangible Cost M US$ 6,000 6,000 27,600
Intangible Cost M US$ - - -
Facility Cost M US$ - - -
Signature Bonuses M US$ 6,000 - -
Production Bonuses M US$ - - -
Opex M US$ - - -

Economic Calculation 1 2 3
Vertical Well Unit 2012 2013 2014
Gross Revenue M US$ - - -
Total FTP M US$ 20% - - -
Gross Revenue after FTP M US$ - - -
Capital Depreciation M US$ 2,400 1,440 864
Non Capital Cost M US$ - - -
Operating Cost M US$ - - -
Total Cost Recovery M US$ 2,400 1,440 864
Total Recovered M US$ - - -
Unrecovered cost M US$ 2,400 1,440 864
Total ETS M US$ - - -
Indonesia Share 75.00%
FTP M US$ - - -
Equity share M US$ - - -
DMO M US$ - - -
Taxes M US$ - - -
Total Indonesia Share M US$ - - -
Contractor Share 25.00%
FTP M US$ - - -
Equity share M US$ - - -
DMO
Less DMO M US$ 25% - - -
Add DMO fee M US$ 25% - - -
DMO
Taxable income M US$ - - -
Taxes M US$ 40% - - -
Net contractor Share M US$ - - -
Total Contractor Share M US$ - - -
Total Expenditure M US $ 14,400 7,440 28,464
Net contractor Cash Flow M US $ (14,400) (7,440) (28,464)
Cumulative Cash Flow M US $ (14,400) (21,840) (50,304)

Economic Result
NCF, MUS$ 53,052
NPV, MUS$ (52,455) NPV bernilai negatif
IRR 3% IRR < MARR (MARR = 15%)
POT, Years 15 POT sangat lama

Recheck
Gross Revenue 2,076,501 M US$
Cost recovery 163,040 M US$
contractor take 287,019 M US$
Gov. take 1,626,442 M US$
GSGR, % 78%
 3% /year 1000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

- - 5,100 5,100 10,200 10,228 10,200 10,200
16.39 16.88 17.39 17.91 18.45 19.00 19.57 20.16

43,300 79,100 30,900

43,300 79,100 30,900
- - -
- - 2,550 2,550 5,100 5,114 5,100 5,100
- - - - - - - -
- - - - 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
- - 6000 6200 6,420 6,810 6,810 7,010

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
- - 88,687 91,348 188,169 194,345 199,629 205,618
- - 17,737 18,270 37,634 38,869 39,926 41,124
- - 70,950 73,078 150,535 155,476 159,703 164,494
518 311 187 112 67 40 24 15
- - 2,550 2,550 5,100 5,114 5,100 5,100
- - 6,000 6,200 6,420 6,810 6,810 7,010
518 311 8,737 8,862 11,587 11,964 11,934 12,124
- - 8,737 8,862 11,587 11,964 11,934 12,124
518 311 - - - - - -
- - 62,213 64,216 138,948 143,512 147,769 152,370

- - 13,303 13,702 28,225 29,152 29,944 30,843

- - 46,660 48,162 104,211 107,634 110,827 114,277
- - - - - - - -
- - 7,995 8,249 17,658 18,238 18,769 19,349
- - 67,958 70,113 150,095 155,024 159,540 164,469

- - 4,434 4,567 9,408 9,717 9,981 10,281

- - 15,553 16,054 34,737 35,878 36,942 38,092

- - (5,543) (5,709) (11,761) (12,147) (12,477) (12,851)

- - 1,386 1,427 2,940 3,037 3,119 3,213

- - 19,988 20,621 44,146 45,595 46,924 48,373

- - (7,995) (8,249) (17,658) (18,238) (18,769) (19,349)
- - 11,993 12,373 26,487 27,357 28,154 29,024
- - 20,729 21,235 38,074 39,321 40,088 41,148
43,818 79,411 39,450 8,750 16,520 16,924 16,910 17,110
(43,818) (79,411) (18,721) 12,485 21,555 22,397 23,178 24,038
(94,122) (173,533) (192,254) (179,769) (158,215) (135,817) (112,639) (88,601)

Comparison of Govt Take & Cont Take in PSC Conventional

Dengan demikian
Project ini TIDAK Government Take Contractor Take
EKONOMIS !!!
1,626,442

15% the ratio 88%:12% is Effect of DMO.

If DMO was ignored it will make the ratio is 85%:15%
85%

287,019
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
10,200 10,228 6,200 5,260 4,450 3,780 3,500 2,710 2,710
20.76 21.39 22.03 22.69 23.37 24.07 24.79 25.54 26.30

5,100 5,114 3,100 2,630 2,225 1,890 1,750 1,355 1,355

- - - - - - - - -
5,000 5,000 - - - - - - -
7,220 7,440 7,660 7,800 8,130 8,370 8,630 8,880 9,160

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
211,786 218,737 136,571 119,344 103,996 90,997 86,783 69,207 71,283
42,357 43,747 27,314 23,869 20,799 18,199 17,357 13,841 14,257
169,429 174,990 109,257 95,475 83,197 72,797 69,427 55,366 57,027
9 5 3 2 1 1 1 - -
5,100 5,114 3,100 2,630 2,225 1,890 1,750 1,355 1,355
7,220 7,440 7,660 7,800 8,130 8,370 8,630 8,880 9,160
12,329 12,559 10,763 10,432 10,356 10,261 10,381 10,235 10,515
12,329 12,559 10,763 10,432 10,356 10,261 10,381 10,235 10,515
- - - - - - - - -
157,100 162,431 98,494 85,043 72,841 62,537 59,045 45,131 46,512

31,768 32,811 20,486 17,902 15,599 13,650 13,017 10,381 10,692

117,825 121,823 73,870 63,782 54,631 46,902 44,284 33,848 34,884
- - - - - - - - -
19,946 20,618 12,581 10,891 9,364 8,074 7,640 5,897 6,077
169,539 175,252 106,937 92,575 79,594 68,626 64,942 50,126 51,653

10,589 10,937 6,829 5,967 5,200 4,550 4,339 3,460 3,564

39,275 40,608 24,623 21,261 18,210 15,634 14,761 11,283 11,628

(13,237) (13,671) (8,536) (7,459) (6,500) (5,687) (5,424) (4,325) (4,455)

3,309 3,418 2,134 1,865 1,625 1,422 1,356 1,081 1,114

49,864 51,545 31,452 27,228 23,410 20,184 19,100 14,743 15,192

(19,946) (20,618) (12,581) (10,891) (9,364) (8,074) (7,640) (5,897) (6,077)
29,919 30,927 18,871 16,337 14,046 12,110 11,460 8,846 9,115
42,247 43,486 29,634 26,769 24,402 22,371 21,841 19,081 19,630
17,320 17,554 10,760 10,430 10,355 10,260 10,380 10,235 10,515
 24,927 25,932 18,874 16,339 14,047 12,111 11,461 8,846 9,115
(63,673) (37,741) (18,867) (2,528) 11,519 23,630 35,091 43,937 53,052

C Conventional
TOTAL
100,067
403

192,900
192,900
-
50,033
6,000
30,000
112,540

TOTAL
2,076,501
415,300
1,661,201
6,000
50,033
112,540
168,573
163,040
5,533
1,498,161

311,475
1,123,621
-
191,346 Depresiasi Value Deprec Sisa
1,626,442 yr
1 6,000 2,400 3,600
103,825 2 3,600 1,440 2,160
374,540 3 2,160 864 1,296
4 1,296 518 778
(129,781) 5 778 311 467
32,445 6 467 187 280
- 7 280 112 168
478,365 8 168 67 101
(191,346) 9 101 40 60
287,019 10 60 24 36
450,059 11 36 15 22
397,007 12 22 9 13
 53,052 13 13 5 8
(1,177,076) 14 8 3 5
15 5 2 3
16 3 1 2
17 2 1 1
18 1 1 -
19
20
 Escalating Oil Crude Price : +
Input Data
Input Unit 2012 2013 2014
Yearly Production MSTB - - -
Crude Oil Price US$/bbl 15.00 15.45 15.91
Cost
Capex M US $ 6,000 6,000 27,600
Tangible Cost M US$ 6,000 6,000 27,600
Intangible Cost M US$ - - -
Facility Cost M US$ - - -
Signature Bonuses M US$ 6,000 - -
Production Bonuses M US$ - - -
Opex M US$ - - -
Sliding Scale factors (R factor) - - -
Profit Oil Split (Cont Share) % 42 42 42
Cost Recovery Ceiling % 50 50 50

Economic Calculation 1 2 3
Vertical Well Unit 2012 2013 2014
Gross Revenue M US$ - - -
Total Royalti M US$ 10% - - -
Gross Revenue after FTP M US$ - - -
Capital Depreciation M US$ 2,400 1,440 864
Non Capital Cost M US$ - - -
Operating Cost M US$ - - -
Total Cost Recovery (with CR ceiling) M US$ 1,200 720 432
Total Recovered M US$ - - -
Unrecovered cost M US$ 1,200 720 432
Total ETS M US$ - - -
Indonesia Share SS
Royalti M US$ 100% - - -
Equity share M US$ - - -
DMO M US$ - - -
Taxes M US$ - - -
Total Indonesia Share M US$ - - -
Contractor Share SS
Royalti M US$ 0% - - -
Equity share M US$ - - -
DMO
Less DMO M US$ 25% - - -
Add DMO fee M US$ 25% - - -
DMO
Taxable income M US$ - - -
Taxes M US$ 40% - - -
Net contractor Share M US$ - - -
Total Contractor Share M US$ - - -
Total Expenditure M US $ 13,200 6,720 28,032
Net contractor Cash Flow M US $ (13,200) (6,720) (28,032)
Cumulative Cash Flow M US $ (13,200) (19,920) (47,952)

Economic Result
NCF, MUS$ (4,450)
NPV, MUS$ (69,803) NPV bernilai negatif
IRR -0.3% IRR < MARR (MARR = 15%)
POT, Years 18 POT sangat lama

Recheck
Gross Revenue 2,076,501 M US$
Cost recovery 61,993 M US$
contractor take 327,798 M US$
Gov. take 1,686,711 M US$
GSGR, % 81%
 3% /year 1000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

- - 5,100 5,100 10,200 10,228 10,200 10,200
16.39 16.88 17.39 17.91 18.45 19.00 19.57 20.16

43,300 79,100 30,900

43,300 79,100 30,900
- - -
- - 2,550 2,550 5,100 5,114 5,100 5,100
- - - - - - - -
- - - - 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
- - 6000 6200 6,420 6,810 6,810 7,010
- - 0 2 2 2 2 2
42 42 42 28 28 28 28 28
50 50 50 36 36 36 36 36

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
- - 88,687 91,348 188,169 194,345 199,629 205,618
- - 8,869 9,135 18,817 19,435 19,963 20,562
- - 79,818 82,213 169,352 174,911 179,666 185,056
518 311 187 112 67 40 24 15
- - 2,550 2,550 5,100 5,114 5,100 5,100
- - 6,000 6,200 6,420 6,810 6,810 7,010
259 156 4,368 3,190 4,171 4,307 4,296 4,365
- - 4,368 3,190 4,171 4,307 4,296 4,365
259 156 - - - - - -
- - 75,450 79,023 165,181 170,604 175,370 180,691

- - 8,869 9,135 18,817 19,435 19,963 20,562

- - 43,761 56,896 118,930 122,835 126,266 130,098
- - - - - - - -
- - 12,676 8,851 18,500 19,108 19,641 20,237
- - 65,305 74,881 156,248 161,377 165,870 170,897

- - - - - - - -
- - 31,689 22,126 46,251 47,769 49,104 50,594

- - (31,689) (22,126) (46,251) (47,769) (49,104) (50,594)

- - 7,922 5,532 11,563 11,942 12,276 12,648

- - 31,689 22,126 46,251 47,769 49,104 50,594

- - (12,676) (8,851) (18,500) (19,108) (19,641) (20,237)
 - - 19,013 13,276 27,750 28,661 29,462 30,356
- - 23,382 16,466 31,922 32,969 33,758 34,721
43,559 79,256 39,450 8,750 16,520 16,924 16,910 17,110
(43,559) (79,256) (16,068) 7,716 15,402 16,045 16,848 17,611
(91,511) (170,767) (186,835) (179,119) (163,717) (147,673) (130,824) (113,213)

Comparison of Govt Take & Cont Take in PSC Sliding Scale

Dengan demikian Government Take Contractor Take
Project ini TIDAK
EKONOMIS !!! 1,686,711

16% the ratio 88%:12% is Effect of DMO.

If DMO was ignored it will make the ratio is 85%:15%
84%

327,798
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
10,200 10,228 6,200 5,260 4,450 3,780 3,500 2,710 2,710
20.76 21.39 22.03 22.69 23.37 24.07 24.79 25.54 26.30

5,100 5,114 3,100 2,630 2,225 1,890 1,750 1,355 1,355

- - - - - - - - -
5,000 5,000 - - - - - - -
7,220 7,440 7,660 7,800 8,130 8,370 8,630 8,880 9,160
2 2 2 2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3
28 28 28 28 35 35 35 39 39
36 36 36 36 36 36 40 44 44

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
211,786 218,737 136,571 119,344 103,996 90,997 86,783 69,207 71,283
21,179 21,874 13,657 11,934 10,400 9,100 8,678 6,921 7,128
190,608 196,864 122,914 107,409 93,597 81,897 78,105 62,286 64,155
9 5 3 2 1 1 1 - -
5,100 5,114 3,100 2,630 2,225 1,890 1,750 1,355 1,355
7,220 7,440 7,660 7,800 8,130 8,370 8,630 8,880 9,160
4,438 4,521 3,875 3,755 3,728 3,694 4,152 4,503 4,627
4,438 4,521 3,875 3,755 3,728 3,694 4,152 4,503 4,627
- - - - - - - - -
186,169 192,342 119,039 103,654 89,868 78,203 73,952 57,783 59,528

21,179 21,874 13,657 11,934 10,400 9,100 8,678 6,921 7,128

134,042 138,487 85,708 74,631 58,414 50,832 48,069 35,248 36,312
- - - - - - - - -
20,851 21,542 13,332 11,609 12,582 10,948 10,353 9,014 9,286
176,071 181,903 112,698 98,174 81,396 70,880 67,101 51,182 52,727

- - - - - - - - -
52,127 53,856 33,331 29,023 31,454 27,371 25,883 22,535 23,216

(52,127) (53,856) (33,331) (29,023) (31,454) (27,371) (25,883) (22,535) (23,216)

13,032 13,464 8,333 7,256 7,863 6,843 6,471 5,634 5,804

52,127 53,856 33,331 29,023 31,454 27,371 25,883 22,535 23,216

(20,851) (21,542) (13,332) (11,609) (12,582) (10,948) (10,353) (9,014) (9,286)
 31,276 32,314 19,999 17,414 18,872 16,423 15,530 13,521 13,930
35,715 36,835 23,873 21,169 22,601 20,117 19,682 18,025 18,556
17,320 17,554 10,760 10,430 10,355 10,260 10,380 10,235 10,515
18,395 19,281 13,113 10,739 12,246 9,856 9,302 7,790 8,041
(94,818) (75,538) (62,424) (51,685) (39,439) (29,583) (20,281) (12,491) (4,450)

C Sliding Scale

%
TOTAL
100,067
403

192,900
192,900
-
50,033
6,000
30,000
112,540

TOTAL
2,076,501
207,650
1,868,851
6,000
50,033
112,540
64,759
61,993
2,767
1,806,858

207,650
1,260,529
-
218,532 Depresiasi Value Deprec Sisa
1,686,711 yr
1 6,000 2,400 3,600
- 2 3,600 1,440 2,160
546,329 3 2,160 864 1,296
4 1,296 518 778
(546,329) 5 778 311 467
136,582 6 467 187 280
- 7 280 112 168
546,329 8 168 67 101
(218,532) 9 101 40 60
 327,798 10 60 24 36
389,790 11 36 15 22
394,240 12 22 9 13
(4,450) 13 13 5 8
(1,655,439) 14 8 3 5
15 5 2 3
16 3 1 2
17 2 1 1
18 1 1 -
19
20
 PSC Conventional Diagram

Gross Revenue
$ 2,076,501

FTP (20%)
$ 415,300

Recoverable Cost
$ 163,040

Equity to be Split
$ 1,498,161

Goverment Share
78% $ 1,626,442

DMO
$ -

DMO Fee
$ 32,445

Tax Payment
$ (191,346)

Goverment Take
$ 1,626,442
85.0%
 Contractor Share
$ 287,019

Goverment Take
$ 1,686,711

Taxable Income
$ 478,365

Contractor Take
$ 287,019
15.0%

Contractor Entitlement
$ 450,059
 PSC Sliding Scale Diagram
Gross Revenue
$ 2,076,501

Royalti (10%)
$ 207,650

Recoverable Cost
$ 61,993

Goverment Share Profit Split Contractor Share

$ 1,686,711 $ 1,806,858 $ 327,798

Tax Payment
$ (218,532)

Goverment Take
$ 1,686,711
84%
 Contractor Take
$ 327,798
16%
 Comparison Between PSC Conventional & PSC SS Comparison Be
Economic Result PSC Conventional PSC SS
NCF, MUS$ 53,052 (4,450)
NPV, MUS$ (58,928) (71,975)
IRR 3% -0.3%
POT, Years 15 18
Recheck
Gross Revenue, US$ 2,076,501 2,076,501
Cost recovery, US$ 163,040 61,993
Contractor take, US$ 287,019 327,798
Gov. take, US$ 1,626,442 1,686,711
GSGR, % 78 81

Comparison B
Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan, dan dari grafik dapat dilihat bahwa untuk tingkat
harga minyak pada US$ 15/barrel, jenis sistem kontrak migas yang menarik baik
bagi kontraktor maupun pemerintah adalah PSC Sliding Scal karena masih
memberikan harga Goverment take, %GSGR, dan Contractor Take yang lebih besar
dari model sistem kontrak migas PSC Conventional. Adapun, untuk Cost rec,
porsinya lebih besar jika menggunakan model kontrak PSC Conventional.

Namun Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan direkomendasikan bahwa project ini tidak

ekonomis untuk dilakukan, hal tsb dikarenakan beberapa parameter keekonomian
migas bernilai negatif. NPV untuk kedua jenis PSC term bernilai negatif. IRR <
MARR. POT sangat lama (>10 tahun). Dengan demikian, pada tingkat harga minyak
US$ 15/barel sangat tidak ekonomis .
Comparison Between Govt Take in PSC Conv & PSC SS Comparison Between Cont Take
Govt Take PSC Conventional Govt Take PSC SS Cont Take PSC Conventional

1,686,711

1,626,442
287,019

Comparison Between Cost Rec in PSC Conv & PSC SS Comparison Between %GSGR
Cost Rec PSC Conventional Cost Rec PSC SS %GSGR PSC Conventional

163,040

61,993 78
son Between Cont Take in PSC Conv & PSC SS
Cont Take PSC Conventional Cont Take PSC SS

327,798

287,019

son Between %GSGR in PSC Conv & PSC SS

%GSGR PSC Conventional %GSGR PSC SS

81

78
Diketahui :
Panjang Pipeline 24 inch 45
12 inch 45
Option a :
Spike NGLs into the crude oil line and sell as crude oil

Option b :
Replace 12 inch pipeline NGLs with new pipeline, cost $30 million. 30 bulan pemasangan dimulai 01.01.2017. selam

Production Forecast
2016 2017 2018 2019
Crude, stb/d 1807 1507 2174 2045
Ethane, T/d 80 76 80 73
LPG, T/d 321 279 340 323

Crude Oil Price 20 $/bbl

Ethne Price 22 $/Ton
LPG Price 175 $/Ton
Discount Rate 10%

Jawaban :

Option A :

2016 2017 2018 2019

Crude, stb/d 1807 1507 2174 2045
Ethane, T/d 80 76 80 73
LPG, T/d 321 279 340 323

Total Crude Oil (bbls) 5195.45 4506.75 5723 5391.2

Revenue (USD) 37,926,785 32,899,275 41,777,900 39,355,760
Disc. Faktor 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.75
Net Revenue (USD) 37,926,785 29,908,432 34,527,190 29,568,565

NPV (USD) $157,137,313

Option B :

2016 2017 2018 2019

Crude, stb/d 1807 1507 2174 2045
Ethane, T/d 80 76 80 73
LPG, T/d 321 279 340 323
Cost (USD) 10,500,000 21,000,000 3,500,000
Total Crude Oil (bbls/d) 5195.45 4506.75 3948.5 2045
Etane, T/d 40 73
LPG, T/d 170 323
Revenue 37,926,785 32,899,275 40,004,000 36,146,315
Disc. Faktor 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.75
NPV 37,926,785 29,908,432 33,061,157 27,157,261

NPV (USD) $150,241,991

Dari Hasil Perhitungan diatas :

Option yang dipilih adalah Option A karena memiliki nilai revenue dan NPV yang lebih besar.
 km
km is too old

emasangan dimulai 01.01.2017. selama instalasi, NGLs will be spike into crude.

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

1988 1889 1785 1669 1540
70 68 62 55 50
316 299 272 242 238

1 Ton 8.45 bbls

Hurdle Rate 10%
Capital expenditure :
2016 30%
2017 60%
2018 10%

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TOTAL

1988 1889 1785 1669 1540 16404
70 68 62 55 50 614
316 299 272 242 238 2630

5249.7 4990.15 4607.3 4178.65 3973.6 43815.8

38,322,810 36,428,095 33,633,290 30,504,145 29,007,280 319,855,340
0.68 0.62 0.56 0.51 0.47
26,174,995 22,618,981 18,985,115 15,653,450 13,532,110 228,895,623

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TOTAL

1988 1889 1785 1669 1540 16404
70 68 62 55 50 614
316 299 272 242 238 2630
 1988 1889 1785 1669 1540 24,567
70 68 62 55 50 418
316 299 272 242 238 1,860
35,259,000 33,434,365 30,902,360 28,083,100 26,845,750 301,500,950
0.68 0.62 0.56 0.51 0.47
24,082,371 20,760,110 17,443,577 14,411,071 12,523,741 217,274,505

n NPV yang lebih besar.

Diketahui :

Gas Well Cost 450000 USD Hurdle Rate 10%

Gas Price 7 $/Mscf
Produksi Awal 10000 Mscf/month
Limit Prod 575 Mscf/month
Exp Decline rate 30% perthn
Linear Decline 20% perthn
Operating expenses & Tax 3500 USD/month
Discount Rate 15%

Jawaban :

Option A :
1 2 3 4 5
Gas Production (Mscf/month) 10,000 7,408 5,488 4,066 3,012
Gas Production (Mscf/year) 120,000 88,898 65,857 48,788 36,143
Revenue 420,000 311,144 461,002 341,519 253,003
Operating Expenses 492,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000
Net Cash Flow (72,000) 197,144 419,002 299,519 211,003
Disc Faktor 1.00 0.87 0.76 0.66 0.57
NPV (72,000) 171,429 316,826 196,938 120,642

NPV (USD) $603,252

Option B :

1 2 3 4 5
Gas Production (Mscf/month) 5,000 5,000 6,400 5,120 4,096
Gas Production (Mscf/year) 60,000 60,000 76,800 61,440 49,152
Revenue 210,000 210,000 537,600 430,080 344,064
Operating Expenses 492,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000
Net Cash Flow (282,000) (114,000) 381,600 388,080 302,064
Disc Faktor 1.00 0.87 0.76 0.66 0.57
NPV (282,000) (99,130) 288,544 255,169 172,706

NPV (USD) $317,318

Dari Hasil Perhitungan diatas :

Option yang dipilih adalah Option a karena memiliki nilai revenue dan NPV yang lebih besar.
 6 7 8 9 10 11 TOTAL
2,231 1,653 1,225 907 672 575 37,237
26,776 19,836 14,695 10,886 8,065 3,450 443,394
187,429 138,851 102,863 76,203 56,453 24,150 2,372,617
42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 21,000 891,000
145,429 96,851 60,863 34,203 14,453 3,150 1,409,617
0.50 0.43 0.38 0.33 0.28 0.25 6.02
72,304 41,871 22,881 11,181 4,108 779 886,959

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
3,277 2,621 2,097 1,678 1,342 1,074 859 687 575
39,322 31,457 25,166 20,133 16,106 12,885 10,308 8,246 5,520
275,251 220,201 176,161 140,929 112,743 90,194 72,155 57,724 38,640
42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 33,600
233,251 178,201 134,161 98,929 70,743 48,194 30,155 15,724 5,040
0.50 0.43 0.38 0.33 0.28 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.16
115,967 77,041 50,436 32,340 20,110 11,913 6,482 2,939 819

g lebih besar.
 TOTAL
39,826
476,535
2,915,743
1,029,600
1,490,143
6.58
653,335
Diketahui :

Drill cost 40,000 USD

Additional cost 30,000 USD

Option a :
Probability
Success Gas
30%
Drill
Probability
Dry Hole
70%

Double Price
Option b :
Success Gas
30%
Drill open market

Dry Hole
70% Biaya

(40,000)

Dari Hasil Perhitungan diatas :

Option yang dipilih adalah Option b karena memiliki nilai EMV yang lebih besar.
 Biaya NPV Risk

70,000 130,000 39,000

Biaya NPV Risk

(40,000) (40,000) (28,000)

EMV a 11,000

Cumm. Probability NPV Risk

Double Price
60% 18% 230,000 41,400

NPV Risk
open market
40% 12% 80,000 9,600

NPV Risk

(40,000) (28,000)

EMV b 23,000