Professional Documents
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STOCKS
WOULD BUY DURING
THIS CASH CRISIS
Warren Buffett
Stocks
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Introduction 3
Stock # 1
5
Navneet Education
Stock # 2
9
HDFC Bank
Stock # 3
13
TCS
Stock # 4
17
Shiram Transport Finance Ltd
Stock # 5
22
Bajaj Auto
26
Disclosure
29
Disclaimer
Introduction | 2
Introduction
Dear Subscriber,
There is no doubt that Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors of all times.
However, are his principles of investing valid from an Indian markets perspective?
We firmly believe so.
While, stock selection for Buffett is primarily the American stock markets. The investing
principles that he employs to identify and invest in the business are timeless and
transcends geographical boundaries.
Warren Buffett has written extensively over the kind of investing he practices. In
other words, he has been quite generous in sharing the key principles he sticks to
while making his investing decisions. ValuePro is an attempt to make good use of
these investing principles or the 'Buffett-would-buy' criteria as we call them.
So what are these criteria? Well, it will be difficult to spell in detail all of them here.
However, at the heart of his stock selection process are four very simple rules.
3 | Introduction
Every stock that he invests in has a business model he understands, has some sort
of competitive advantage that is enduring, has a management team that is honest,
and allocates capital intelligently. Lastly, it is available at a valuation with a sufficient
margin of safety.
These principles are exactly what we have kept in mind while creating and managing
our ValuePro groups of stocks. We now have two groups of stocks as part of the
ValuePro service. The first group is predominantly large cap. The second group has
predominantly midcap and small cap stocks.
Subscribers who are absolutely new to the service could do well to know that the
ValuePro Group One has fourteen open positions, while Group Two has twelve open
positions. Our view is that barring IDFC and IDFC Bank, subscribers could consider to
buy all the stocks that are in the open position in both the groups of stocks provided
they have not already been bought earlier. According to us, in a scenario of ideal
allocation of funds, no single stock should account for more than 7-8% of the
funds set aside for ValuePro. However, please note that this allocation will vary
from person to person. For something that works best for you, we recommend you
talk to your investment advisor.
This issue we lay a special focus on five stocks among both the groups that are robust
enough to not only survive rather thrive despite the current cash crisis. These are
strong businesses we believe that fulfil our "Buffett Would Buy" criteria amid these
uncertain and volatile times.
Without much ado, let us have a look at these stocks and why they meet Buffett's
investment criteria.
Introduction | 4
Stock # 1
Navneet Education
Group Two
Background
Navneet Education has a strong regional presence in the content and stationery
businesses primarily in western India (Maharashtra and Gujarat) with about a 60%
share of the organised market. The company has more than 225 authors on its royalty
program. Authors favour Navneet despite the fact that the company pays royalties as
a percentage of revenues while the broader industry pays a lump sum.
Navneet has to its credit more than 5,000 titles in English, Hindi, Marathi, Gujarati,
and other Indian and foreign languages. Sales are driven by a strong marketing team
with 450 representatives across Gujarat, Maharashtra, and the rest of India who pitch
to more than 25,000 private schools every year. Navneet operates primarily in the
content and stationery segments. The content publishing business is a higher margin
business for the firm while stationery is a relatively low margin business.
Navneet enjoys a strong brand recall and has proven pricing power in its business
segments over the years. This indicates the presence of a sustainable moat for the
company. Navneet Education has grown its revenues and profits at a steady com-
pounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% and 13.4% respectively over the last
ten years. Over this time, the free cash flow (FCF) has grown at a rate of 28.2%. As
a result, the company has required minimal debt to fund its growth. Therefore, the
company boasts a return on capital employed averaged over 28% during the decade.
The company has also paid out steadily increasing dividends over the years.
5 | Navneet Education
The sustainability of the moat stems from the fact that the company has been pro-
active with regards to their consistently strong margins and good return ratios. De-
spite the volatility in paper prices, the company’s chief raw material, the company
was able to maintain its profit margins over the years. On account of its thrust on
content quality and effective branding initiatives, the company is able to pass on cost
increases to the end consumers. The company's ability to maintain its margins even
during adverse macroeconomic conditions reflects its strong business fundamentals
and pricing power.
Navneet recognised the importance of the digital medium and made its foray into
the e-learning space in 2008. It has developed curriculum-based digital content un-
der the brand name eSense for the state boards of Maharashtra and Gujarat. eSense
has a presence in around 3,000 institutions and 18,000 classrooms.
Valuation
Ideally, a stock trading at a discount of 20-25% to its intrinsic value offers adequate
margin of safety according to us. The stock of Navneet is currently trading at almost
8% discount to its intrinsic value. In view of the company’s strong cash generation
potential and business tail winds, we recommend that one could consider buying the
stock for the ValuePro Group Two.
Navneet Education | 6
Annexure for Navneet Education:
Shareholding (%, Sept-16)
Category (%)
Promoters 61.8
FIIs 6.8
Public 13.0
Others 3.3
Total 100.0
Market Data
7 | Navneet Education
Financials at a glance (Consolidated)
Navneet Education | 8
Stock # 2
HDFC Bank
Group Two
Background
HDFC Bank is the second largest private bank in India as measured by assets. The
bank is known for its relentless focus on execution. The bank has a country wide
presence with over 4,520 branches and employs over 87,000 people to cater to needs
of its customers.
When it comes to servicing its retail customers, HDFC Bank has relied on the model
of wide franchise and low cost deposit base. This is reflected in the form of continued
pricing power and sustainability of above average NIMs (net interest margins). With
its consistency, conservatism with respect to margins, resulting profits have proved
to be extremely rewarding for the bank. What is impressive is the bank is not resting
on its past laurels and continues to invest in products thus effectively competing with
banks and non-banks in the digital banking space
Banks typically have a natural advantage to ward off any impending competition i.e.
‘Switching costs’. For any individual, the allure of cheaper cost of loans, high interest
rates on deposits might be temporarily enticing. But it is the switching costs which
ultimately results in a very low customer turnover.
HDFC Bank, with its plain vanilla banking, has utilized this switching cost moat to its
maximum advantage. It has also displayed how plain vanilla banking can be a safe,
profitable and a value creating business model. Today, even the largest and century
old banks in India are no match for the barely two and half decade old bank.
9 | HDFC Bank
The bank has grown its revenues and profits at a compounded annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 29.4% and 30.8% respectively over the last ten years. The bank has been
able to sustain above average return on equity as well as dividend payout closer to
19% over the past 10 years, thus immensely rewarded its long term shareholders.
Valuation
Ideally, a stock trading at a discount of 20-25% to its intrinsic value offers adequate
margin of safety according to us. The stock of HDFC Bank is currently trading at a
marginal discount to its intrinsic value. In view of the company’s strong execution
track record and business tail winds, we recommend that one could consider buying
the stock for the ValuePro Group Two.
HDFC Bank | 10
Annexure for HDFC Bank:
Shareholding (%, Sept-16)
Category (%)
Promoters 21.3
FIIs 39.4
Public 10.5
Others 17.4
Total 100.0
Market Data
11 | HDFC Bank
Financials at a glance (Consolidated)
HDFC Bank | 12
Stock # 3
Tata Consultancy Services
Group One
Background
Founded in 1968, TCS is the largest software services company in India, ahead of
other Indian software service providers like Infosys and Wipro. The company provides
a wide range of services and caters to industries such as banking, insurance and
financial services, telecom, retail and manufacturing. TCS was one of the pioneers of
the much-acclaimed global delivery model and the same has helped it to post good
results in the past.
The firm is ably run by Mr N Chandrasekaran who has made the company reach even
greater heights. The company is one of the most respected employers in the India,
and employs more than 3 lakh professionals, which highlights the fact that it has
managed to build significant scale in its business. TCS is also known to maintain long
term relationship with most of its clients. As a result, the company enjoys a major
chunk of its revenues from repeat businesses.
TCS enjoys the most stable and sustainable moat that Warren Buffett strongly advo-
cates. And that moat is the ability to generate large amount of cash for maximization
of shareholder wealth. TCS has grown its revenues and profits at a compounded an-
nual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.6% and 23.3% respectively over the last ten years. Over
this time, the free cash flow (FCF) has grown at a rate of 25.9%. has required minimal
or almost no debt to fund its growth. TCS has also paid out steadily increasing divi-
dends over the years.
13 | TCS
The sustainability of the moat stems from the fact that the company has been slowly
moving up the value chain. The company has increased the share of revenues from
digital technologies (this is where the pricing power exists) from negligible to over
15.0% in a short span of time. Even better, revenues from these digital services are
growing at more than twice the company's growth rate. Therefore, TCS has success-
fully transitioned in these crucial services to retain existing client base. The company
has also stepped up hiring to service the large orders it has on hand.
Valuation
Ideally, a stock trading at a discount of 20-25% to its intrinsic value offers adequate
margin of safety according to us. The stock of TCS is currently trading at almost 42%
discount to its intrinsic value. In view of the company’s strong cash generation poten-
tial, we recommend that one could consider buying the stock for the ValuePro Group
One.
TCS | 14
Annexure for TCS:
Shareholding (%, Sept-16)
Category (%)
Promoters 73.3
FIIs 17.0
Public 4.0
Others 0.5
Total 100.0
Market Data
15 | TCS
Financials at a glance (Consolidated)
TCS | 16
Stock # 4
Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd.
Group Two
Background
Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd (STFCL) is the country's largest asset financing
NBFC present in both new and pre-owned commercial vehicles. The company is a
pioneer in financing the high-yielding pre-owned CV segment for Small Truck Owners
and has expertise in loan origination, valuation and collection. The company has a
20-25% market share in pre-owned truck financing and around 7-8% market share in
new truck financing.
STFCL has expanded its loan portfolio to include pre-owned and new commercial and
passenger vehicles, tractors, three wheelers, multi-utility vehicles and construction
equipment. Apart from this, the company extends finance for tyres, engine
replacement and working capital. STFCL also provides ancillary services such as
freight bill discounting and co-branded credit cards. The company has a pan-India
presence with 899 branches and 906 rural centres as well as tie-up with over 500
private financers catering to 1.4 m customers (a huge chunk of the country's truck
owners).
Pre-owned commercial vehicles segment has been the flagship segment of the
company over the past three decades. The commercial vehicle financing market
size is estimated to be Rs 2.2 trillion comprising of 8 million vehicles. STFCL targets
the 5-12-year-old truck segment that accounts for a major part of the overall truck
industry with a 47% share (value terms) and 46% share (volume terms).
The pre-owned truck financing market is largely unorganized and under penetrated
with 65-70% of the market dominated by private financiers that charge exorbitant
STFCL is armed with a strong and durable moat that shields it from the vagaries of
economic cycles. The company’s core business continues to grow even during an eco-
nomic downturn. While new commercial vehicle purchases stagnate during a down
cycle, the small truckers resort to buying more used vehicles instead of new ones to
meet their requirement. And this benefits STFCL that focuses on entrepreneurs and
driver-turned owners who are under-banked and have no access to affordable funds.
Moreover, heavy commercial vehicles offer multiple financing opportunities as it gen-
erally changes ownership four times in its life cycle. It starts off on the long haul
national highways, moves down to inter-state by the fifth year, further on to less
than 350 km intercity routes and finally goes on to last mile or local uses like garbage
trucks after 12 years. These changes of ownership create multiple financing options
with STFCL specialising in interstate and intercity transport segments.
Valuation
Ideally, a stock trading at a discount of 20-25% to its intrinsic value offers adequate
margin of safety according to us. At a 2.2 times price to adjusted book value multiple,
the stock of STFCL is currently trading at almost 17% discount to its intrinsic value.
The company’s valuations have been hit on account of ban on over 10-year-old vehi-
cles in some parts of the country, cash shortage from demonetisation as well as slide
in asset quality. However, we believe that STFCL is adequately safeguarded against
all these headwinds.
In view of its strong network and well established lending business model in the used
CV segment, we recommend that one could consider buying the stock for the Value-
Pro Group Two.
Category (%)
Promoters 26.1
FIIs 60.7
Public 6.2
Others 4.1
Total 100.0
Market Data
Background
Bajaj Auto is a leading player in motorcycles and three wheelers in India. The company's
sales mix (in terms of units sold) consists of motorcycles (86%) and three-wheelers
(14%). Exports account for around 45% of volumes and 44% in value terms. It has also
entered into an agreement with KTM for export of motorcycles for emerging markets.
Bajaj Auto is the largest exporter of motorcycles and three wheelers. The company
exports to 78 countries and enjoys dominant position in more than a quarter of them.
In motorcycles, Bajaj Auto is a market leader in the value added sports and super-
sports segments with market shares of 49% and 60%, respectively. Even in the
entry or utility segment of motorcycles, the company has succeeded in building a
dominant position with a 35% market share though differentiated offerings. In the
three wheeler segment, Bajaj Auto is the world’s largest manufacturer accounting for
more than 55% of sales.
Bajaj Auto has consciously decided to stay away from the scooter segment and focus
entirely on becoming a global player in the motorcycle segment. As a result, the
company today has a formidable presence in the premium motorcycle segments
where it enjoys a leadership position. Brands such as Pulsar, Avenger and KTM have
cemented the company’s dominant position in the higher end sports and super
sports segments in the domestic markets and acted as big draw in the international
markets. In the entry level motorcycle segment, the company, through a combination
of pricing and aggressive marketing, has created a niche proposition for Platina.
Bajaj Auto | 22
With a strong presence across all price points in the motorcycle segment and
leadership position in the three wheelers, Bajaj Auto’s sales have grown at an
average rate of 14% in the past eight years. Profits, on an average, have grown at
a much faster pace of 28% during this period. The company's strategy is to not run
after market share, but to focus on providing customers with the best performance
bikes (in their respective ranges) without compromising on quality. This strategy has
paid off rich dividends with the company’s operating margins being the highest in
the industry. Moreover, profitable operations coupled with low capital intensity on
a strong vendor base have led to huge generation of cash flows keeping debt levels
almost negligible. Therefore, the company is armed with a strong moat and provides
superlative shareholder’s returns even during recessionary times.
Valuation
Ideally, a stock trading at a discount of 20-25% to its intrinsic value offers adequate
margin of safety according to us. At current price levels, Bajaj Auto’s stock is trading at
a discount of 21% to its intrinsic value. Going ahead, the company’s growth potential
remains bright from a pick-up in the demand for premium motorcycles as also strong
growth prospects from the international markets. We recommend that one could
consider buying the stock for the ValuePro Group One.
23 | Bajaj Auto
Annexure for Bajaj Auto:
Shareholding (%, Sept-16)
Category (%)
Promoters 49.3
FIIs 17.8
Public 16.0
Others 8.8
Total 100.0
Market Data
Bajaj Auto | 24
Financials at a glance (Consolidated)
25 | Bajaj Auto
DISCLOSURES UNDER SEBI (RESEARCH ANALYSTS)
REGULATIONS, 2014
INTRODUCTION:
Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as "Equitymaster"/"Company")
was incorporated on October 25, 2007. Equitymaster is a joint venture between Quantum Information
Services Private Limited (QIS) and Agora group. Equitymaster is a SEBI registered Research Analyst
under the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 with registration number INH000000537.
BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
An independent research initiative, Equitymaster is committed to providing honest and unbiased
views, opinions and recommendations on various investment opportunities across asset classes.
DISCIPLINARY HISTORY:
There are no outstanding litigations against the Company, it subsidiaries and its Directors.
DETAILS OF ASSOCIATES:
Details of Associates are available here.
bb Except for Navneet Education, HDFC Bank, TCS, Shiram Transport Finance Ltd and Bajaj Auto,
Equitymaster has no financial interest in any other Subject Company forming a part of this report.
cc Equitymaster’s investment in the subject company is as per the guidelines prescribed by the Board
of Directors of the Company. The investment is however made solely for building track record of
its services.
ee Equitymaster’s Research Analyst or his/her relative have no financial interest in the subject
company.
ff Neither Equitymaster, it’s Associates, Research Analyst or his/her relative have actual/beneficial
ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month
immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report.
gg Neither Equitymaster, it’s Associates, Research Analyst or his/her relative have any other material
conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report.
hh Equitymaster's technical team/other research services have given a ‘Sell’ view on Bajaj Auto.
aa Neither Equitymaster nor it's Associates have received any compensation from the subject
company in the past twelve months.
bb Neither Equitymaster nor it's Associates have managed or co-managed public offering of
securities for the subject company in the past twelve months.
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or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months.
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GENERAL DISCLOSURES:
aa The Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.
bb Equitymaster or the Research Analyst has not been engaged in market making activity for the
subject company.
bb Hold recommendation: This means that the subscriber could consider holding on to the shares
of the company until further update and not buy more of the stock at current market price.
cc Buy at lower price: This means that the subscriber should wait for some correction in the market
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the objective of the service.
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market price keeping in mind the objective of the recommendation service.
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Disclaimer | 29