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2, APRIL 1999
Abstract— Fuzzy fault trees provide a powerful and compu- An uncertain parameter may be assigned a fuzzy
tationally efficient technique for developing fuzzy probabilities membership function : [0, 1], which is the mem-
based on independent inputs. The probability of any event that bership function of a fuzzy set . Then the possibility that
can be described in terms of a sequence of independent unions,
intersections, and complements may be calculated by a fuzzy fault is in a set is designated by and
tree. Unfortunately, fuzzy fault trees do not provide a complete
theory: many events of substantial practical interest cannot be
described only by independent operations. Thus, the standard
fuzzy extension (based on fuzzy fault trees) is not complete This is the sense in which we describe uncertainty in the
since not all events are assigned a fuzzy probability. Other
complete extensions have been proposed, but these extensions
probability of an event .
are not consistent with the calculations from fuzzy fault trees. In this paper, is a fuzzy set describing uncertainty in
In this paper, we propose a new extension of crisp probability the crisp probability and : [0, 1] [0, 1]. Fuzzy
theory. Our model is based on n independent inputs, each with fault trees provide a method for developing fuzzy probabilities
a fuzzy probability. The elements of our sample space describe based on independent fuzzy inputs [1]. The probability
exactly which of the n input events did and did not occur. Our
extension is complete since a fuzzy probability is assigned to
of any event that can be described in terms of a sequence
every subset of the sample space. Our extension is also consistent of independent unions, intersections, and complements may
with all calculations that can be arranged as a fault tree. Our be calculated by a fuzzy fault tree. Unfortunately, we show
approach allows the reliability analyst to develop complete and below that some events of substantial practical interest cannot
consistent fuzzy reliability models from existing crisp reliability be described only by independent operations: Standard fuzzy
models. This allows a comprehensive analysis of the system.
Computational algorithms are provided both to extend existing
fault trees do not provide a complete theory. Thus, the standard
models and develop new models. The technique is demonstrated fuzzy extension (based on fuzzy fault trees) is not complete
on a reliability model of a three-stage industrial process. since not all events are assigned a fuzzy probability. Zadeh
Index Terms— Fuzzy fault trees, fuzzy probability, fuzzy sets,
proposed another extension which is complete [11], but his
independence. extension is shown (in our context) to be inconsistent with the
calculations from fuzzy fault trees. For recent developments of
fuzzy probability, see [2]–[5]. Walley and de Cooman, in par-
I. INTRODUCTION ticular, discuss completeness and consistency in a more general
setting. See also Cai’s work on system failure engineering [6]
M ANY system reliability models require (as input) the
probabilities of a number of independent events. Often
these probabilities can be estimated from data or theory, but
and other discussions of fuzzy fault trees [7]–[10].
Here we develop a new extension of crisp probability theory
sometimes choosing probabilities for input is difficult. This based on independent inputs, each with a fuzzy probability.
work is part of an ongoing study in high-consequence surety The elements of our sample space describe exactly which of
analysis. Many of the factors of interest come from tradi- the input events did and did not occur. This extension will
tionally nonmathematical areas of research such as estimating be shown to be both complete and consistent.
the probability of a terrorist attack, compliance with safety
practices, or a flawed design of a safety system. Other factors II. INDEPENDENT CALCULATIONS AND FUZZY FAULT TREES
are too expensive or dangerous to measure experimentally. Throughout this paper, we use the bar notation to
Instead, expert opinion is used to provide these probabilities, indicate a fuzzy set representing probability of , the notation
but these estimates are rarely precise. Fuzzy sets and possi- to indicate the corresponding upper semicontinuous
bility theory provide a tool for describing and analyzing these membership function and : to indicate
uncertain quantities. the corresponding cuts. A convex fuzzy set has special
structure: each cut is a closed and convex subset of .
Manuscript received December 1, 1997; revised June 29, 1998. This work We see for a convex fuzzy probability that each cut can
was supported in part by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental
Laboratory. be written as a closed interval with , . This
J. Dunyak is with the Department of Mathematics, Texas Tech University, assumption of convexity is equivalent to assuming that the
Lubbock, TX 79409 USA. membership function has a single mode. Earlier work with
I. W. Saad and D. Wunsch are with the Department of Electrical Engineer-
ing, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA. independent fuzzy probabilities relied on this (often quite
Publisher Item Identifier S 1063-6706(99)02796-4. reasonable) assumption of convexity, but our work will be
1063–6706/99$10.00 1999 IEEE
DUNYAK et al.: THEORY OF INDEPENDENT FUZZY PROBABILITY FOR SYSTEM RELIABILITY 287
(5) (9)
If the fuzzy probabilities are convex, we have the relationships Now and are independent so we can correctly calculate
between endpoints of the -cut intervals using (2). Since is independent of ,
we can apply (1) to calculate . Unfortunately,
unraveling such relationships can be very difficult in complex
models. Of greater concern is the fact that not all possible
(6) fuzzy probabilities can be calculated by rearranging into a
calculation that maintains independence.
and For example, a listing of all possible independent cal-
culations easily shows that may not be
(7) rearranged to allow calculation by independence formulas.
288 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON FUZZY SYSTEMS, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 1999
Consider two independent system components numbered probability that exactly one of units 1 and 2 is functional.
and . If event indicates that is operational and Unfortunately, as discussed in the proceeding paragraph, this
indicates that is operational, then is the fuzzy probability cannot be modeled using (1)–(3). Several
fuzzy probability that exactly one of the two components other “gaps” occur in the fuzzy reliability model of the system.
is operational. The inability of (1)–(3) to calculate such Clearly, many important fuzzy probabilities cannot be
probabilities is a serious limitation in reliability applications. reached by the standard independence formulas in (1)–(3). To
This problem with dependence was first recognized by Cooper understand what sets are missing, we should more carefully
[15]. It was also discussed briefly by the authors in [17]. specify the probability space of interest in our reliability
This limitation is illustrated by the example we use in this problem.
paper. Consider the three-stage manufacturing process shown Traditional probability theory is built with the concept of a
in Fig. 2. This diagram shows the flow of an industrial process probability triple: [ , , ] with sample space describing
through three stages. Stage one may be performed by two all possible outcomes of the experiment, a collection of
redundant units, each with a throughput capacity of 0.5 items subsets of meeting the requirements of a field and
per second. If both units 1 and 2 are operational, stage one a probability measure that assigns a number to each
has a throughput capacity of one item per second. If only one member of . We build our fuzzy triplet from independent
of the two units is operational, the stage one throughput is 0.5 sets , , , , .
items per second. If neither unit 1 nor unit 2 are operational, Definition: The sample space based on independent
the throughput capacity of stage one is zero. This viewpoint events , , , is the set of 2 distinct elements
may be used to build the throughput capacity of the entire
process, with the capacity of stage one limiting the possible
flow through stage two, and so on. Let be the event that of the form
unit is operational. Assume the process has repairable (or
replaceable) independent units and that the process has been with or
in operation long enough to approximately reach stationarity.
Then is the stationary readiness coefficient of unit
[18]. Letting be the process throughput capacity, we can For the remainder of this paper, the notation will be used
calculate the steady-state distribution of as to indicate the independent events from which is defined.
For example, for
(10) These are the basic elements in our reliability problem. Each
describes exactly which of the events did and did not occur.
and so on. Possible values of are 0, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0 . Note that has a finite number of elements, so our sample
Calculation of the distribution of follows easily when the space is discrete. A fuzzy probability theory, in keeping with
stationary readiness coefficients are crisp; our goal is to study both our needs and the structure of crisp probability theory for
this process with fuzzy readiness coefficients. To calculate discrete sample spaces, should assign a probability for every
the fuzzy probability , we must calculate the fuzzy subset of .
DUNYAK et al.: THEORY OF INDEPENDENT FUZZY PROBABILITY FOR SYSTEM RELIABILITY 289
Definition: The field over which fuzzy probabilities Now consider the statement of proposition 2. If and
are defined is the collection of all subsets of , including the are disjoint, then independence is clear. If and are
empty set and itself. independent, then
We then have a natural definition for completeness and the
following result follows from the discussion above.
Definition: A fuzzy probability theory is called complete if
it assigns a fuzzy probability to every set in the collection .
Proposition 1: The independent fuzzy probability theory
is incomplete. If and are not disjoint, at least one of the occurs
To develop a complete theory, we need to characterize those linearly (when the for are held fixed) in both ,
sets that can be reached through (1)–(3). , , and , , , . Thus, this occurs
Proposition 2: Suppose and are subsets of . Using quadratically in . This contradicts the result in (14)
the notation , and are independent if and so, in fact, the and must be disjoint subsequences
only if we can write , , , and of .
, , , for disjoint subsequences With this characterization of independence we can describe
and of . those sets for which a fuzzy probability can be calculated
Proof: In crisp probability theory, completeness is using (1)–(3). Consider a set that can be constructed
achieved for discrete probability spaces by use of additivity: through independent operations. Note that the set must be
if sets and are disjoint, . constructed through the binary operations of and as well
When this is applied to the discrete sample space as through use of complements. Because of the DeMorgan’s
we calculate the crisp probability of a relationships in (4), the expression for can be written
subset of by in terms of , , and sets , , , , , ,
without further need for complements. We can view such a
(11) by working backward through a binary tree of union and
intersection operations
Thus, every subset of the discrete is broken into a finite for some or
union of disjoint singleton sets and probabilities for all for some or (15)
subsets of are inherited from the list of probabilities for
each element of .
We will find it helpful to chose a specific ordering of the with independent of and
elements in . Consider, for in , the
-digit binary number , , , representing
or
with independent of
with or
when
(13) and
when .
for some or
Now, letting , we have
for some or
(18)
Definition: For , the extension of independent Here, and are disjoint subsequences of
fuzzy probabilities is . Then
(23)
and
a)
(24) Continuing this pattern of calculations
b)
(25)
c)
(26)
For the special (but important) case of convex fuzzy prob- Fig. 3. (a) The fuzzy idleness coefficient and (b) the readiness coefficient
for a single unit.
abilities, we can represent a membership function in terms
of the left and right endpoints of its cuts. The following
theorem provides an important computational tool.
we see that the right-hand side of (28) is in and
Proposition 6: Suppose for that the crisp probabil-
when is greater than the right-hand side of (28). A simple
ity relationship is , , , and ,
continuity argument then shows that (27) and (28) hold.
as in (22). Assume are convex. Then is also convex
and with Note in (27) and (28) that any (computationally efficient)
crisp probability model may be used to implement .
Thus, Proposition 6 provides a simple technique to generalize
existing crisp reliability models.
We can implement the extended fuzzy probability for-
mula in a fully general and straightforward way. Consider
(27) subsets , , and of . Associate with the vector
with
and
(30)
.
For
Note from (14) that is affine in when
the are held fixed for . Then the minimum must occur
on a vertex of the hyper-rectangle . The binary numbers
make it convenient to represent the search over the vertices.
Finally, for each , we can associate a vector , , ,
, and
(32)
(29) .
If we evaluate at the vertex of which This formula makes use of the orderings of the in (13). Note
leads to the minimum , we get from (22) the right-hand side in these relationships that no assumptions of independence are
of (27). Thus, the right-hand side of (27) is in . If is less required. Using (31) and (32), complicated set relationships
than the right-hand side of (27), then . Following the represented as either formulas or diagrams can be easily
same argument for implemented. We then have the following formula.
Proposition 7: Suppose is represented by the
vector in (30) and the elements of are represented by
the in (12) and (13). Assume are convex. Then
DUNYAK et al.: THEORY OF INDEPENDENT FUZZY PROBABILITY FOR SYSTEM RELIABILITY 293
(d) (e)
Fig. 4. The resulting fuzzy probabilities for the process throughput (a) T = 0, (b) T = 0:4, (c) T = 0:5, (d) T = 0:8, and (e) T = 1.
is also convex and , with possible) of independence and Propositions 5 and 6 would be
required.
To demonstrate the technique, we consider the three stage
process discussed above and illustrated in Fig. 2. To demon-
strate the calculations, the event will be discussed.
Note from (10), using independence and additivity, that
(33)
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(34)
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294 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON FUZZY SYSTEMS, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 1999
[13] D. Singer, “A fuzzy set approach to fault tree and reliability analysis,” Ihab W. Saad was born in 1971. He received
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Syst., Orlando, FL, June 1994, pp. 1899–1904. M.S. degree in electrical engineering from Texas
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[18] I. A. Ushakov, Handbook of Reliability Engineering. New York: Wi- Donald Wunsch (SM’94) received the degree in
ley, 1994. humanities (honors) from Seattle University, Seattle,
WA, in 1981, the B.S. degree (applied mathematics)
from the University of New Mexico, Albuquerque,
in 1984, and the M.S. (applied mathematics) and
Ph.D. degrees (electrical engineering) from the Uni-
versity of Washington, Seattle, in 1987 and 1991,
respectively.
He is the Director of the Applied Computational
Intelligence Laboratory at Texas Tech University,
Lubbock, TX. Prior to joining Texas Tech in 1993,
James Dunyak was born on September 19, 1960. he was Senior Principal Scientist at Boeing, where he invented the first
He received the B.S. and M.S. degrees in engi- optical implementation of the ART1 neural network, featured in the 1991
neering mechanics from Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Annual Report, as well as other optical neural networks and applied research
VA, in 1982 and 1987, respectively, and the Ph.D. contributions. He has also worked for International Laser Systems and
degree in applied mathematics from the University Rockwell International, Seattle, WA. His current research activities include
of Maryland, College Park, in 1994. neural optimization, forecasting and control, financial engineering, fuzzy risk
From 1984 to 1992, he worked in systems engi- assessment for high-consequence surety, wind engineering, characterization of
neering from 1984 to 1985 for Locus Inc., Alexan- the cotton manufacturing process, intelligent agents, and computer automation
dria, VA, from 1985 to 1989 for the Naval Research of Go—an Asian board game. He is heavily involved in research collabora-
Laboratory, Washington, DC, and from 1989 to tions with former Soviet scientists.
1992 for the Mitre Corporation, McLean, VA. In Dr. Wunsch is an Academician in the International Academy of Techno-
1994 he took a position in the Department of Mathematics at Texas Tech logical Cybernetics and the International Informatization Academy, and is the
University, Lubbock, TX. His research interests include random processes recipient of the Halliburton Award for Excellence in Teaching and Research
and their application to a wide variety of engineering and physics problems, at Texas Tech. He is a member of the International Neural Network Society
fuzzy set theory as an alternate model of uncertainty, and neural networks. and a past member of the IEEE Neural Networks Council.