Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Economic Mobility
in Colorado
The Bell
Policy Center
Contents
Education - page 22
Early Childhood - page 22
Postsecondary & Training - page 26 Health - page 37
Demographics - page 5
Colorado’s Economy - page 9
Public Investments - page 16
Automation - page 19
2
Introduction
The Bell Policy Center is pleased to release our Guide to Economic Mobility in Colorado.
We hope it offers a comprehensive look at the barriers and opportunities communities
face as we work to ensure economic mobility for every Coloradan.
After a year of conversations across the state and intensive research, it’s clear to us that
despite Colorado’s overarching economic growth, too many Coloradans are not feeling
the benefits of our state’s exceptional prosperity. Many of our fellow citizens feel stuck and
see the American Dream as elusive. Even still, there is pride in and optimism about the
Colorado way of life.
This guide explores how the forces of shifting demographics, economic inequality,
shrinking public investments, and technological change make economic mobility a steep
uphill climb. Despite the challenges these forces present, we continue to believe
successful use of policy levers in areas like education, health, housing, and labor and
employment law can make that climb easier. Throughout this guide, we take measure of
how we use those levers and offer ideas for how we can do better.
Our hope is the information, analysis, and recommendations offered here fuel a robust
conversation about economic mobility in Colorado. We recognize there will be diverse
perspectives on this information and welcome an open dialogue to discuss them.
The Bell Policy Center believes it’s within our power to raise the economic floor, build a
diverse and thriving middle class, and embrace innovation in Colorado. To do that, we
need the facts and ideas for how to change our trajectory. We’re confident this guide
provides just that.
3
Guide to Mobility: Key Takeaways
Forces
Colorado is growing older and more diverse. and the state’s for-profit students face even
Notably, Hispanics will comprise one-third of higher average debt than other students.
Colorado’s population by 2050, but will make
up more than 60 percent of new entrants to Combined two-generation approaches to
the workforce by that time. This underscores early childhood and postsecondary challenges
the importance of closing equity gaps today.
show enormous potential for cost-effective
ways to improve outcomes.
Colorado’s overall economic recovery stands
out, but gains have been uneven throughout A historic number of Coloradans now have
the state. Distressed communities persist both health insurance — at 6.5 percent, Colorado’s
in rural and metro areas and Colorado is uninsured rate is down significantly from the
adding more low-wage jobs than any other. 18 percent it was 10 years ago, but crucial
When adjusted for inflation, average weekly pressure points still exist. A new study of 23
wages have only risen $33 since 2000.
states finds Coloradans spend the most on
out-of-pocket costs.
Colorado families are hit particularly hard by
the impact of low investment in public Lack of affordable housing is a top concern for
programs. At 3.7 percent, Colorado is investing Coloradans. A household must make $21.97 to
a historically low percentage of its economy in afford rent and utilities in Colorado, but the
services funded through the state’s General average renter wage is only $17.13. Nearly half of
Fund.
all Colorado renters are cost burdened, with an
additional 24 percent severely cost burdened.
As automation puts Colorado at a critical
juncture over the next two decades, 477,000 In the workplace, updating wage, benefits,
Colorado workers are likely to be affected by and worker protection practices would have
changes in technology. Most of these are positive implications for our state. Gender pay
workers in low-skill, low-wage jobs.
equity could mean the state’s poverty rate
from 5.6 percent to 2.8 percent. Implementing
Levers
the Obama administration’s proposed
overtime eligibility changes would benefit
High-quality early childhood education has 248,000 salaried Coloradans, especially female,
become cost prohibitive for many families. The black, and Hispanic workers.
Colorado Preschool Program (CPP), which was
designed to subsidize costs for low-income Child care poses a huge challenge for working
families, is only serving 20 percent of Colorado’s parents, as 64 percent of Colorado children
3- and 4-year-olds. under the age of six live in a home where all
primary caregivers work, but Colorado’s Child
Our changing workforce necessitates greater Care Assistance Program (CCCAP) only serves
attention to postsecondary education. More 13 percent of eligible families.
must be done to further educate the 9 percent
of Coloradans who haven’t completed a high Colorado risks future public funding liabilities if
school diploma or its equivalent, but we also it doesn’t address the high costs of long-term
need new approaches to meet the needs of care, the lack of options to save for this
the more than 30 percent of undergraduates expense, and retirement savings in the state.
aged 25 and older in our postsecondary system Care for seniors is among the biggest cost
in an affordable way. Colorado’s outstanding drivers in Medicaid and is projected to grow,
student loan debt now totals $24.75 billion, and half of Coloradans don’t have access to
retirement plans at work.
4
Forces
As many fight to enter or remain in today’s shrinking middle class, the road to opportunity is
littered with hurdles hardworking Americans are expected to clear with varying levels of
assistance. These are exacerbated by what the the Bell Policy Center identifies as “forces.”
This guide provides insight on some of the specific forces impeding Coloradans’ ability to get
ahead and stay ahead. The examination of these forces offers the necessary lens to
understand where we are and how we got here, but also sheds light on the unfair challenges
Coloradans face due to outdated practices that can be solved with progressive and inclusive
policymaking.
Demographics:
A Changing Colorado
Colorado’s changing demographics have Between 2010 and 2015, Colorado’s population
far-reaching implications for our state’s grew by about 400,000, almost all of whom
economic growth. A key indicator in settled along the Front Range. Although the
determining prosperity and need across the rate of net in-migration slowed in 2016, another
state, demographics help us understand 460,000 people are expected in Colorado by
demands for housing, transportation, schools, 2020, most of them headed to the Front
and other public services. Because Range.
demographics affect so much of how Colorado
operates, it’s imperative to recognize how Expected Population Growth
Expected Population Growth
these elements play into the vision of
economic opportunity.
500,000
459,143
450,000
398,120 399,951
387,140
Population Growth
400,000
Number of Coloradans
350,000
300,000
Overall, Colorado is growing faster than most
271,823
246,376
250,000
states — it was the eighth fastest state in 200,000
absolute population growth in 2016 — but our
150,000
population is increasing more slowly than it
100,000
has in the past. In recent years, Colorado has 59,191
50,000
seen a 1.6 percent annual uptick in population, 10,980
5
Front Range Population Growing, Rural Shrinking
Percent Population Change in Colorado Counties with Largest Population Losses and Gains
Kit Carson
Jefferson Douglas -0.6%
5.4% 12.2%
Teller Cheyenne
Delta El Paso
0% -0.2%
-3% 7.8%
Montrose
Fremont Kiowa
-1%
-0.4% Crowley -0.2%
-4.6%
Saguache
Hinsdale -0.8% Bent Prowers
-9% Otero -10.1% -5%
Dolores -3%
-4.3% Huerfano
Rio Grande -3%
-4.9%
Baca
Las Animas
-5.3%
-8.7%
Conejos
-2.5%
Outside of the Front Range, the population in While stagnant and declining areas have fewer
25 counties declined between 2010 and 2015. jobs and economic opportunities, they often
With more people moving out than in and have lower living costs and are less crowded,
deaths outnumbering births, these counties which can be enticing and spur growth. Since
will struggle to sustain their population over Colorado has several communities that are
the long run. growing while others are declining, helping the
latter prosper from statewide growth is
Growing and declining populations both have important to promoting economic
attributes that may encourage or discourage opportunities throughout Colorado.
economic growth. Growing areas spin off lots
of economic opportunities that attract people, One of the critical resources needed to
which means greater demand for housing, generate growth in rural parts of Colorado is
transportation, and other resources. If supply broadband internet access. While many rural
does not or cannot keep pace, these areas towns located along major highways have
become congested, expensive, and less broadband access, almost one-quarter of rural
attractive. residents don’t, including many living in large
portions of the Eastern Plains and mountains.
The lack of high-speed internet affects how
6
schools, hospitals, and businesses operate and Four out of every 10 workers in Colorado are
can make a difference in an area’s growth. The baby boomers and as they retire, our workforce
Bell met with members from several Colorado will undergo a major transformation.
communities during the summer of 2017, and
those on the Western Slope and in Approximately 1 million workers are projected
northwestern Colorado shared the importance to age out of the workforce by 2030, with most
of broadband access. The Governor’s Office of expected to leave between 2020 and 2030.
Information Technology is leading the efforts Education, health, utilities, mining, and
to increase coverage and capacity of government are industries with a larger
broadband throughout Colorado, including number of older workers and will rely on
mapping the availability of service and replacing retiring workers; this will open the
pursuing strategies to expand access. Ensuring door for new workers to find their place in
all parts of Colorado have access to broadband Colorado’s workforce.
is one strategy to help all communities benefit
from Colorado’s economic growth. In addition, senior spending on health care
and other services is projected to drive an
Colorado Is Getting Older almost 70 percent increase in jobs such as
personal care aides, retail sales persons, and
Historically, Colorado has had a relatively low registered nurses over the coming decade.
share of residents 65 and older; in 2015,
Colorado was the 13th youngest state in the If there are not enough new workers with the
nation with a median age of 36.5. appropriate skills to fill the jobs vacated by
retiring employees, Colorado runs the risk of
During the same time, Colorado’s growth rate constraining economic growth. Further
in the 65-and-over and 85-and-over population limitation may come from the decline in
was the third and 15th fastest in the country, incomes as Coloradans retire and live on
respectively. This is largely due to the number pensions and savings.
of baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964)
in the state. With less spending from households headed
by 65-and-older Coloradans comes reduced
Baby boomers account for 1 out of every 4 overall demand and slower economic growth.
Coloradans and as they get older, so too does The drop in income and overall household
our overall population. Soon, our “young state” expenditures also puts downward pressure on
will be similar in age to the rest of the nation. state tax revenues: The Colorado Futures
As this happens, economic output throughout Center projects state income taxes and state
the state will be affected. sales taxes will grow at a slower rate due to the
aging of Colorado’s population.
Coloradans Over 65 Expected
to Increase Dramatically
Coloradans Over 65 Expected to Increase Dramatically When combined with the greater demand
2,000,000 seniors place on public services such as health
1,745,193 care, long-term care, income support, and
1,750,000
property tax rebates, there will likely be a
1,500,000 1,495,072 smaller share of public resources available in
1,256,306 the future to be spent on services promoting
1,250,000
opportunity, such as higher education, K-12
1,000,000 education, preschool, child care, housing,
895,873
750,000
health care, and transportation.
554,934
500,000
417,987 A More Diverse Colorado
250,000 329,265
The number and share of racial and ethnic
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
minorities in Colorado are projected to
increase over the next two decades, growing
Source: Colorado Demography Office, population by single year of age & region from 1.8 million in 2017 to 4.0 million in 2050.
7
Colorado's Hispanic Population is Expected Median Income By Race
to Increase
$80,000
Percent of Total Population
Median Income
$48,058
25% 22%
$42,216
$40,000 $37,119
0%
15 20 025 030 035 040 045 050
20 20 2 2 2 2 2 2
$20,000
White Hispanic Black Asian
Native American
Source: Population of Colorado’s Racial and Ethnic Groups, 2000-2050,
Colorado Demography Office, 2016
$0
ite ck an ian /PI no
Wh Bla Alask As aiian /Lati
Racial and ethnic minorities are predicted to / aw ic
an an
eric v e H Hisp
comprise about 46 percent of Colorado’s m Na
ti
e A
population in 2050, compared to about 30 tiv
Na
percent in 2015. Hispanics will comprise the Sources: American Community Survey, 2016 1-year Estimates for Median
largest share of Colorado’s racial and ethnic Family Income; 2011-2015 5-year Estimates for Poverty Rate and
Educational Attainment; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population
minority population — over one-third — by Survey, 2016 Annual Average Unemployment Rates; 2016 Survey of
Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Board
2050.
Colorado’s minority population tends to be For example, they currently have lower
younger and Hispanics will comprise over 60 incomes, higher poverty rates, higher
percent of the growth in our working-age unemployment rates, less assets, lower
population between 2017 and 2020 and each educational attainment levels, more at-risk
decade through 2050. However, minorities in students, lower homeownership rates, and
Colorado currently face numerous barriers to poorer health outcomes than the majority
economic mobility. white population. We must address current
gaps in educational and skills attainment if we
want to ensure qualified workers fill the jobs of
the future and find opportunity themselves.
8
Colorado’s Economy:
Strong Yet Uneven
In recent years, Colorado’s economy has been When adjusting for inflation, average
strong, growing faster than the national
economy and that of most other states. In weekly wages have been essentially
August 2017, our state had the second lowest flat since 2000: They’ve only increased
unemployment rate in the nation at 2.4 $33, or a little over 3 percent, since
percent, near its lowest level on record.
Unemployment is projected to remain at 3 2000.
percent or less in 2018 and 2019.
The total personal income in the state, which is
Colorado created 217,000 net new jobs an overall measure of the size of Colorado’s
between 2014 and 2016 — that’s about 70,000 economy, grew at an average rate of 5.4
per year on average. The expectation is to add percent each year between 2014 and 2016. This
another 50,000 jobs each year from 2017 amount is projected to grow between 5
through 2019. percent and 6 percent between 2017 and 2019.
But a tight labor market and lack of qualified The Leeds Business Confidence Index shows
workers have analysts believing economic businesses’ expectations for future growth
growth is being held back. They argue remain positive. The September 2017 state
Colorado needs more workers; these could be leading index published by the Federal Reserve
older Coloradans foregoing retirement, new Bank of Philadelphia projects Colorado’s
people moving to the state, or simply an economy will continue to expand into the first
increase in the number of people joining the quarter of 2018, and the Colorado Secretary of
workforce.
State reports the number of new business
entities increased by 5.1 percent in the third
As many economists predicted, these quarter of 2017 over the same period last year.
conditions are beginning to put pressure on
employers to increase wages. In October 2017,
average wages in Colorado increased year-
over-year by 2.7 percent or $0.73 per hour.
However, the pace of wage growth has been
much slower than in the recovery periods from
past recessions.
9
Uneven Growth Throughout the
State
The unemployment rate in every Colorado
metro area is lower than the national average,
as well as lower than it was in 2016. The same
Unemployment & Job Growth Across Colorado
holds true for year-over-year growth in the
number of jobs for each metro area except 0.2%
National
Grand Junction, as illustrated in the graphic to 4.1%
the right. Colorado 1.7%
2.3%
Colorado was recently ranked as one of the top Fort Collins
3.3%
1.9%
five states in the nation based on its low share
3.7%
of “distressed communities.” Produced by Boulder
1.9%
the Economic Innovation Group, the ranking 3.6%
says 45 percent of Coloradans — that’s 2.7 Greeley
2.1%
million people — live in “prosperous 1.4%
Denver
communities,” but some parts of the state 2.2%
aren’t faring as well. In compiling its distressed Colorado Springs 1.1%
2.7%
community rankings, EIG examines seven
factors: Grand Junction 0.2%
3%
• Population over 25 without a high school
0.06%
diploma Pueblo 3.5%
• Amount of vacant housing
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
• Prime age population (25-64) not working
• Poverty rate
• Community’s median income compared to Unemployment Job Growth
the state’s median income Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, civilian labor force/unemployment
• Change in jobs between 2011-2015 by state/metro area, not seasonally adjusted, September 2017
• Change in the number of businesses
between 2011-2015
0% 0% 0%
ley Bent uerfanoOtero Costilla ley Bent uerfanoOtero Costilla ley Bent uerfanoOtero Costilla
Crow H Crow H Crow H
Source: EIG Distressed Communities Report
10
But it’s not just rural areas — even Beyond regional differences, some Coloradans
communities in metro Denver are facing are more likely to experience unemployment
economic distress. For example, the section of than others. Despite Colorado’s low
north and northeast Aurora comprising the unemployment rate in 2016, women and
80010 zip code is considered distressed, even people of color experienced unemployment
though Arapahoe County and Denver County rates about one-third higher than those of
are categorized as prosperous.
Prosperous Counties Still Have men and white Coloradans. When looking at
Distressed Communities unemployment by age, teenagers have the
The 80010 zip code, part of Arapahoe County,
highest unemployment rate by far, while older
has a distressed rating of 80.7, but Arapahoe Coloradans see a substantial drop. This is
County as a whole only rates at 2.9. largely due to retirement and workforce exits,
40% so these Coloradans are not counted in
36.3% unemployment statistics.
32.5% 32.2% Unemployment Rate in Colorado
30% By Race, Gender, Age
22.5%
Hispanic 4.7%
White 3.2%
11.2%
10% 8%
Men 3.6%
Women 3%
0%
80010 Arapahoe County
Poverty Rate No H.S. Diploma Adults Not Working Aged 16-19 13%
0% 5% 10% 15%
$70,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey,
$62,237
Employment Status of Civilian Non-Institutional Population, 2016
$60,000
Annual Averages. Percentages are out of population referenced.
Median Income
$50,000
$40,000 $35,226
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
80010 Arapahoe County
11
Growth in Low-Wage Sectors
Three of these industry sectors pay average
wages below 200 percent of the federal
About two-thirds of all new Colorado jobs poverty level (FPL) for a family of four, an
projected to be created in 2017 are found in five amount many analysts use as a rule of thumb
industries: for family-supporting wages. Two other
• Health care and social assistance industries — health care and social assistance
• Accommodations and food services and construction — pay average wages barely
• Retail trade above 200 percent of FPL. However, the
• Professional, scientific, and technical services average wages in the accommodations and
• Other services (except public administration)
food services industry are below the amount
needed to keep a family of four out of poverty.
About 6 out of 10 new jobs projected to be Only the professional, scientific, and technical
created in Colorado through 2026 will occur in services industry pays average wages high
six industries — the first four listed above plus enough to support the needs of most families.
two others:
• Construction Many Colorado Workers Are In Low-Wage Jobs
• Education services
100%
Low-paying jobs in these industries include 90%
waiters and waitresses, cashiers, home health 80%
Percent of Coloradans
aides, personal care aides, child care workers,
stock clerks, teacher’s aides, construction 70%
61.9% 62%
laborers, and hairstylists.
60%
50%
40%
30%
MostMost New Jobs Will Be in Low-Wage Industries
New Jobs Will Be in Low-Wage Industries 22%
20% 13%
Professional, 10%
Scientific, & $92,300
0%
Technical Services
2004 2016
Construction $58,292
13
12.67%
10% 9.03%
10.02%
8.87%
Income inequality is not isolated to certain The most income-unequal metropolitan areas
regions
5% or locations in the United States, in Colorado also hold some surprises: EPI’s data
whether 70 urban
75 80or9rural.
85 990It exists
95 000 in00all
5 regions
10 15 show Glenwood Springs ranks first in the state
19 19throughout
19 states
and all 1 1 19the2 country,
2 20 20 and ninth in the country, with the top 1 percent
including Colorado. The top 1 percent takes in
1928: 23.94% making 42.4 times more than the bottom 99
16.6 percent of all income in Colorado, percent, with average annual incomes of
Source: Emmanuel Saez, Top U.S. Incomes 2015,
compared toUniversity of California at Berkeley
20.1 percent nationally. According $2,441,991 and $57,634, respectively. Sterling,
to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), this puts Colorado ranks second in the state for income
Colorado at 21st among the states for income inequality and 21st nationally — the only other
inequality. Colorado metro area in the nation’s top 25.
How Does the Income of the Top 1%
Compare to the Bottom 99%? Wealth Inequality
$1,500,000
As bad as income inequality has become,
$1,153,292 wealth inequality is an even larger problem,
$1,101,214 since wealth is much more highly
$1,000,000 concentrated in the population than income.
This is important because wealth fuels the
kinds of investments that promote economic
mobility, such as a down payment on a house,
$500,000 $410,716 tuition for college, or start-up money for a
$389,436
business.
2016 Up 30% since 1999 $3,380 The last point above is crucial, as income and
wealth inequality in America now affect
Up 148.1% since 1999 $4,490 everyone struggling to enter or stay in the
middle class. Even within the bottom 90
percent of American households, though,
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 these repercussions are especially severe for
Debt Owed those who have historically been left out and
left behind by current policies, programs, and
Student Loans Credit Cards Auto Loans
practices.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, State Level
Household Debt Statistics 1999-2016, May 2017 As the Institute for Policy Studies points out,
continued acceleration of the racial wealth
divide will impact black and Hispanic/Latino
families and eventually the economy at large,
as “the majority of U.S. households will no
longer have enough wealth to stake their claim
in the American middle class or higher.”
15
Public Investments:
The Chopping Block
Investment in Colorado State Services Near Historical Low
6%
5.5%
Share of General Fund Revenues
5%
4.5%
4.36%
4.16%
4%
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5% 3.53% 3.6%
3.26%
3%
76 6
77 7
78 8
79 9
19 80
81 1
82 2
83 3
84 4
85 5
86 6
87 7
88 8
89 9
19 -90
91 1
92 2
93 3
94 4
95 5
96 6
97 7
98 8
99 9
00 0
01 1
02 2
03 3
04 4
05 5
06 6
07 7
08 8
09 9
20 -10
1
2
13 3
4
5
6
20 -17
8
-1
-8
-9
-0
-8
-1
-8
-9
-9
-0
-0
-1
-1
-8
-9
-0
-7
-8
-9
-0
-7
-7
-8
-8
-9
-9
-0
-0
-1
-7
-8
-9
-0
-1
-1
-8
-9
-0
20 -0
10
-
12
11
14
16
15
90
17
80
75
19
: Recession
Source: State spending/personal income data from Legislative Council Service, state recession data from Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank
As more and more low- and middle-income Colorado’s General Fund — the account that
Coloradans face growing costs of living and funds most of the services promoting
stagnant incomes, it’s an important time to opportunity — is comprised of two-thirds
look to public investments. Public investments income taxes paid by individuals and
play a vital role in building and maintaining businesses, while about one-third is made up
infrastructure, educating residents, and by sales taxes. When Colorado grew and the
reducing the costs of services putting economy expanded, the total amount of
opportunities within reach of more families. A money spent on state government did
strong public sector could make increase, but the amount of government
postsecondary education more affordable, revenues as a share of the economy has shrunk
expand health insurance coverage, increase by about 20 percent since the 1990s.
access to preschool, and lower the costs of
child care — all ways to lessen the squeeze From the mid-1970s through 2000, Colorado
many families in Colorado feel today. invested an average of 4.5 percent of the
economy in state services each year (calculated
Today, the share of Colorado’s economy as the ratio of General Fund revenues to total
invested in public services aimed at expanding state personal income). The share has varied
opportunity is a smaller portion than at almost depending on the strength of the economy,
any time in the past 40 years. This means but since 2000, Colorado has only invested, on
Colorado’s state government is less able to be average, 3.8 percent of the economy in state
the strong public sector partner our services.
communities need.
16
At 3.7 percent this year, Colorado is investing Higher Costs for Coloradans
almost a historically low percent of its economy
in state services. This amount is only found in Colorado is a low-tax state and typically ranks
years when Colorado experienced a recession low nationally in terms of state taxes per $1,000
or the fallout of one: The share dropped to 3.9 in personal income. As a result, Colorado
percent in the middle of the shale oil bust and doesn’t have a lot of revenue to spend on state
recession in 1983, then saw lows of 3.6 percent services. Investing a smaller share of our
in 2002 following the dot-com crash, and 3.3 economy in state services means an already
percent at the bottom of the Great Recession lean state government has even less to work
in 2009 and 2010. However, Colorado’s current with. People all over the state feel these
low rate of investment is not due to the effects, making it harder for them to access the
effects of a recession; in fact, Colorado’s levers promoting opportunity.
economy today is one of the fastest growing in
the country. General Fund revenues in 2018 We see the consequences most notably when
and 2019 are expected to be an even smaller it comes to education, child care, and housing.
portion of the economy than now. Colorado families now shoulder twice as much
of the cost of tuition at public colleges and
Total state and local expenditures made up universities than they did in 2001. About 1 out
about 20 percent to 24 percent of our economy of 3 4-year-old students who qualify for the
in Colorado between 2000 and 2015. Nationally, Colorado Preschool Program are not served
that range is generally between 21 percent and because of lack of state funding. Many
25 percent of the economy. What this shows is Colorado school districts have cut staff, half are
how Colorado spends about the same amount operating on four-day weeks, and many are
of our economy on local government services forced to take further measures because state
as the national average, meaning we aren’t support is not keeping pace with costs. Only
using local government spending to about 1 out of 8 children from low- and middle-
compensate for the smaller portion spent on income families eligible for child care
state services compared to other states.
assistance currently get it, partially due to a
lack of state funding. At a time when many
Total State & Local Expenditures Coloradans cannot find affordable housing, our
As Share of Economy state devotes less funds for the construction of
25%
inexpensive options than most other states.
18
Automation:
The Deciding Moment
Many futurists, economists, and high-tech Conversely, the Organization for Economic
business leaders predict there will be fewer Co-operation and Development (OECD)
jobs in the future because robots and other argues while specific duties might be
machines will be able to do everything humans automated, few total occupations will be.
can do, only better. Concerns about machines Because of this, OECD estimates only 9 percent
putting people out of work aren’t new. of jobs in the U.S. are at high risk of elimination.
Historically, it has eliminated some jobs, but The consulting firm McKinsey and Company
automation is also credited with increased provides an even lower assessment: It says less
productivity, improved performance, and lower than 5 percent of jobs are vulnerable to
costs of products or services. Over the years, complete automation, but 46 percent of all
automation has increased demand, tasks U.S. workers perform could be
stimulated economic growth, and resulted automated. Workers who perform routine
in more overall jobs. physical activities, collect and process data, or
are in low-skill, routine jobs — such as filing
However, current advances in artificial clerks and assembly line workers — are most at
intelligence (AI) and robotics could mean risk.
workers will be replaced across all industries at
roughly the same time, not just in specific jobs Other studies focus on the effects of
as in the past. Workers will have to do more automation on specific occupations. For
than change industries to find work; they will example, economists at the U.S. Department of
have to develop new skills. This represents Commerce identified jobs most likely to be
change on a previously unseen scale. eliminated by the introduction of automated
vehicles.
What Jobs Will Be Automated?
What Jobs in Colorado Are at Risk?
Several recent studies assess the types of jobs
most likely to be partly or completely Using the previously cited studies, the Bell
automated. While these studies come to identified occupations in Colorado judged to
different conclusions in terms of the number of be at high risk to automation. This produced a
jobs affected, they generally find low-wage list of 307 occupations that could have all or
jobs and those requiring less education are the part of their functions automated. We then
most vulnerable. ranked the occupations based on the number
of Colorado employees in each occupation.
Two researchers at Oxford University (Frey,
Osborne) determined which of 702 U.S. A total of 1.1 million Coloradans, or 41
occupations would most likely be automated
over the next 10 years to 20 years. Grouped into percent of the total workforce, are
high-, medium-, and low-risk categories, Frey working in occupations judged as high
and Osborne ultimately decided 47 percent of
U.S. occupations fall in the high-risk category.
risk of being automated.
Jobs that are low-wage, require less education,
We then pinpointed occupations judged by
and are in the office and administrative
Frey and Osborne to have a 90 percent or
support, transportation, logistics, and
higher probability of being automated. This
production industries are considered the most
produced a list of 15 occupations, totaling
at risk by Frey and Osborne’s analysis.
477,000 Colorado workers.
19
Workers With Lower Incomes & Less Education In Occupations More Likely To Be Automated
ely To Be Automated
Less Education In Occupations More Likely To Be Automated
Workers With Lower Incomes & Less Education In Occupations More Likely To Be Automated
Workers With Lower Incomes & Less Education In Occupations More Likely To Be Automat
Workers With Lower Incomes & Less Education In Occu
Workers With Lowe
21
Levers
Now that we understand the forces holding many Coloradans back from achieving economic
mobility, it’s time to explore how the following “levers” can help rebuild our state’s middle
class.
These levers are just some of the ways Colorado can implement broad change to support
low- and middle-income families across the state. Throughout our analysis of how these
levers currently operate and how they can better serve Coloradans, we offer
recommendations for how to capitalize on their benefits and most effectively impact
economic mobility in Colorado.
Education:
Learning to Live and Work
In 2015, the average cost for a Colorado
4-year-old to attend preschool was
$11,089
Early Childhood Education
In 2015, the average cost for a Colorado
4-year-old to attend preschool was
All children can benefit from responsive,
stimulating curricula and classroom
environments in their early years. This is
$11,089
especially true for children from low-income
and dual-language backgrounds. For a family making the state
median income of $60,629, that's
Yet, high-quality preschool is financially out of
reach for many. Nationally, the average cost of
18%
of their annual income.
providing preschool ranges from $4,700 (part For a family making the state
day) to $8,600 (full day). Tuition charge to median income of $60,629, that's
parents can be even higher. As such, many
children don’t attend preschool, or instead 18%
of their annual income.
attend lower-quality programs or child care
options. This means a significant number of
Colorado children lack access to critical early For a family of four earning $45,510
childhood learning experiences that could lead (185% of FPL), the cost of sending
to increased success and opportunity in
adulthood.
one kid to preschool jumps up to
Frequent
10.58% Colorado’s public investment in early childhood
Relocation
education (ECE) and child care programs adds
Parent Without
18.83% $832 million to the economy, in both short-
H.S. Diploma
and long-term benefits, according to estimates
Poor Social Skills 25.86% by Early Milestones Colorado. These benefits
include kindergarten students who are better
Needs Language
34.44% prepared to start school, higher academic
Development
achievement, higher adult wages, and
Eligible for Free or
Reduced Lunch
63.14% decreased rates of arrest. Early childhood
investments typically take time to produce
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% returns (e.g., reduced reliance on public
Percentage of CPP-Funded Kids assistance, or reduced crime in adulthood), but
CPP demonstrates savings more quickly. For
Source: 2017 Colorado Preschool Program Annual Legislative Report
example, CPP children are about half as likely
to repeat a grade in kindergarten through third
grade.
23
Early Childhood Development
is a Smart Investment Recommendations
The Earlier the Investment,
the Greater the Return Colorado should expand the Colorado
Preschool Program. Fully funding CPP to
Rate of Return to Investment
25
Postsecondary Education & Job
Training
Employment Statistics Based on Education Level
As outlined earlier in this report, rapid
: Colorado : United States
advances in automation have an increasingly
profound impact on jobs. By 2020, 74
45.4% percent of all jobs in Colorado will require some
No H.S. Diploma
52.1% level of postsecondary education and
training, including targeted skills programs,
H.S. Grad or 57.2% short- and long-term certificates, and two-year
Equivalent 59.5% and four-year degrees. However, estimates say
in the same year, the work-related knowledge
66.6%
Some College or
Associate Degree
of a postsecondary graduate will have a “shelf
65.2%
life” of less than five years.
Bachelor's,
74.4%
Graduate, or
71.7% To meet this challenge, there is broad
Professional Degree
consensus postsecondary education and job
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% training must fundamentally modify its
Labor Force Participation Rate approach to what it does, how it does it, who it
does it for, and who provides it to ensure future
learners are “robot-proof” in our emerging
No H.S. Diploma
8%
workforce and society. Adapting our current
2.5%
strategy on learning will provide more
5.4%
Coloradans with the opportunity to earn more,
H.S. Grad or
Equivalent 4.2%
avoid unemployment, and build a stronger
state economy.
Some College or 4.5%
Associate Degree 2.9% Meeting the needs of a rapidly evolving
workforce and a greatly diversified student
Bachelor's,
Graduate, or
2.6% body means the “ecosystem” of education and
Professional Degree 2.2%
training providers will need to expand. It will be
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
essential to think beyond the boundaries of
Unemployment Rate traditional higher education, and even beyond
the broader landscape of postsecondary and
workforce training programs that currently
No H.S. Diploma
$21,320 exist.
$25,304
30% 26%
The accelerating rate at which knowledge and
18%
technology are advancing means 20%
postsecondary education and training can no 10%
longer be considered a “one-and-done”
activity. Individuals will continually need to 0%
nic
update their knowledge and skills throughout on-Hispa Hispanic All Minori
ties
White, N
their lives, no matter what their level of
education, skill set, or job title.
2010 2050
Because of this, one group to account for will
be employees in need of “reskilling.” Although Source: Colorado Talent Pipeline Report, 2016
Pathways in Partnerships between school districts, High school students, with an emphasis
Technology Early community colleges, and local industry on socioeconomic and racial diversity,
College High employers. Students attend for six years first-generation students, English
Schools (P-TECH) and graduate with both a high school language learners, and students with
diploma and an associate’s degree, as disabilities.
well as work-based skills.
Skillful Public-private initiative of Markle Reskilling adults and those entering the
Foundation with LinkedIn, Microsoft, the job market seeking skills-based training
state of Colorado, and local organization and industry-recognized credentials, as
partners. Offers a network of online and well as employers seeking qualified
on‐the-ground resources connecting job employees.
seekers to high-demand jobs and
training needed to advance their careers.
29
The Imperative for Affordability To increase investments from both the public
sector and employers so students and families
Lifelong learning won’t be possible without aren’t excluded financially from critical
making it affordable for learners throughout retraining opportunities, Colorado should
the length of their careers. encourage and incentivize employers to
provide these benefits for employees. This will
The costs to families associated with lifelong be especially important if we’re to reverse the
learning and reskilling will ultimately be devastating current reliance on student loans
unaffordable if they are asked to shoulder the and their crippling effects on individuals,
bulk of the costs on their own. For example, families, and society.
workers who need to upgrade their skills in IT
and computer information systems to meet
the growing use of AI and robotics, will spend Recommendations
$2,000 for a short-term certificate to $74,700
for a Bachelor of Science degree, depending Ensure the state’s Credit for Prior Learning/
on the type of institution and the length of the Prior Learning Assessment policy affords all
program. students the chance to demonstrate
mastery in subject matters/courses gained
While state and federal resources such as the through prior educational, work, military, or
College Opportunity Fund (COF) stipend, life experiences. This should also allow for
various financial aid grants and loans, and tax students to receive postsecondary course
credits may be available to help certain credit toward graduation without cost.
students afford a portion of the costs
associated with retraining, these have Establish a public/private partnership
limitations. In a lifelong learning environment, between government and business to
many will exhaust their eligibility for such create and fund a postsecondary education
assistance well before their retraining needs and training benefit for those who are not
are met. Public resources alone will be employed or who work in jobs without
insufficient to cover the growing benefits, regardless of age, income,
postsecondary and job training population. educational attainment, or background.
30
Colorado Residents Paying Larger Share of Tuition
$15,000
$12,500
$4,565 $4,421
$10,000 $4,194
$3,735
$3,580
$5,818 $5,312 $4,509 $3,541
$5,660
$5,420
$7,500 $5,069
$7,408 $6,935
$5,828 $4,884 $4,724
$5,000
$0
1 11 13
-0 -0
2
-0
3
-0
4
-0
5
-0
6
-0
7
-0
8 09 -10 0- 1-1
2
2- -14 -15 5-
16 -17
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08- 09 01 01 01 013 014 01 016
2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2
Source: Colorado Joint Budget Committee, data provided to the Bell by Amanda Bickel, December 8, 2017.
Amounts shown in constant dollars, adjusted for inflation
$150,000,000
Amount of State Financial Aid Support
$125,000,000
$100,000,000
$124,309,313
$109,986,211
$75,000,000
The 2016 University of Pennsylvania College Colorado has done a good job over the years of
Affordability Diagnosis says it takes 19 percent ensuring the bulk of its state financial aid
of Colorado middle-income families’ annual support is need based.
incomes to attend our public two-year schools
full-time and 24 percent to attend our public Although the number of students receiving
four-year schools full-time. The report also state need-based financial aid has declined
characterizes Colorado’s public two- and four- since 2011, the average award size has
year institutions as some of the least affordable increased since then. Nevertheless, the amount
in the country when compared to other states. of aid available has not been able to fully offset,
nor even keep pace with, the escalating costs
Need-based grant aid, which does not have to of postsecondary education and training. As a
be repaid, is especially important for low- and result, even after financial aid from all federal,
middle-income students, and is focused on state, and institutional sources has been
ensuring students who might not otherwise awarded — including federal student loans —
be able to attend college have that many students still have a significant amount
opportunity, while merit-based aid provides of unmet need.
options for those who would likely attend
anyway. To be most effective in expanding
opportunity, state need-based financial aid
should be available to students of all ages,
those enrolled part-time, and those in short-
term occupational and career programs
leading to high-demand, industry-recognized
credentials.
32
Average Unmet Financial Need for Colorado Full-Time Undergrad Students Who Qualify for Aid
Colorado Full-Time Undergraduate Students Who Qualify For Aid
Average Unmet Financial Need for Colorado Full-Time Undergraduate Students Who Qualify For Aid
Average Unmet Financial Need for Colorado Full-Time Undergraduate Students Who Qualify For Aid
Average Unmet Financial Need for Colorado Full
Recommendations
Increase the state’s investment in
postsecondary education and job training,
including need-based financial aid, to stop
the cost shift to students and families and
reduce future reliance on student loans.
33
Student Loan Debt Limiting
Opportunity
One of the main ways students address their Although students from every type of
unmet need, even after federal student loans institution pursuing a broad range of
are received, is by taking on debt through postsecondary credentials take on student
private student loans. This increased reliance loan debt, their experiences with repaying that
on both public and private student loan debt debt are not the same. Recent data from the
has led to a serious national problem with both National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)
personal and societal consequences. on long-term outcomes for student loan
borrowers reveal those who have the most
difficulty in repaying their loans are students
In Colorado, outstanding student loan
who begin a program but don’t complete the
debt now totals $24.75 billion. credential, and those who attend for-profit
institutions.
The Colorado Department of Higher
Education reports 67.4 percent of students Default Rates Within 12 Years Based
who graduate with a four-year bachelor’s on Attainment & Institution Type
degree from a Colorado public institution have
Didn't Complete,
debt, with an average amount of $25,877. The Not Enrolled 5 44.5%
Center for Responsible Lending says graduates Years Later
of Colorado’s for-profit four-year institutions
owe, on-average, $32,452. Sixty percent of Undergrad
44.3%
Colorado students graduating with a two-year Certificate
associate degree hold student debt averaging
Associate
$13,374. 21.9%
Degree
39%
Public 4-Year 50%
64%
33%
Private Non-
Profit 4-Year
65%
32%
Public 2-Year 29%
54%
50%
Private For-
63%
Profit
75%
35
Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, Oct. 2017
Both in Colorado and the nation, student loan Black & Hispanic Student Borrowers More Likely
debt has different impacts based on race. The to Default On Loans Regardless of Attainment Level
new National Center for Education Statistics
6%
data show black students are more likely to Bachelor's
14%
borrow than white or Hispanic students, and Degree
23%
nearly half of black borrowers in the cohort
defaulted — including 75 percent of those who 17%
dropped out of for-profit colleges. Perhaps Associate
21%
most troubling of all: 23 percent of black Degree
33%
borrowers who completed a bachelor’s degree
defaulted on their loans within 12 years, 40%
compared with only 9 percent of all borrowers Certificate 51%
who earned that degree. 54%
Recommendations
Make information on postsecondary Encourage and support employer-funded
educational and employment outcomes, and programs to help employees pay off their
especially student loan debt, more readily student loan debt. Examples of companies
available and transparent to students and now offering such a benefit include Aetna,
families so that they can make better, more ChowNow, Penguin Random House,
informed choices among the broad range of PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Staples.
public, private, and for-profit program options
available to them and reduce their reliance on
student debt.
36
Health:
Care and Costs in Colorado Life Expectancy in Counties with Low
vs. High Poverty
Over the past several years, Colorado has Life Expectancy in Counties with Low
engaged in ambitious health policymaking.Douglas (2.9%) vs. High Poverty
From the creation of legislative commissions
to spur health coverage reforms to Governor Elbert (3.5%)
Douglas (2.9%)
Hickenlooper’s vision and plan to make
Colorado “the healthiest state,” our state has
Hinsdale (3.7%)
Elbert (3.5%)
enjoyed bipartisan leadership on a variety of
Life Expectancy (years)
Rio Blanco (5.3%)
initiatives aimed at improving care, costs, and Hinsdale (3.7%)
coverage. Broomfield (5.5%)
Rio Blanco (5.3%)
We could make even greater strides by
recognizing the clear influence opportunity Broomfield (5.5%)
has on health. Research from Boston University
Counties
Prowers (22.1%)
reveals areas of low economic opportunity are
associated with higher mortality rates and Alamosa (24%)
greater incidences of obesity, hypertension, Prowers (22.1%)
and diabetes, and moving from these areas to Bent (24%)
counties of high opportunity could improve Saguache Alamosa (24%)
mortality rates by 16.7 percent. The Brookings (24.4%)
Institution suggests a lack of well-paying jobs Bent (24%)
Costilla (28.4%)
and a dearth in the economic and social Saguache
supports people need to thrive are partly to (24.4%)
blame for a rising premature death rate among 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Costilla (28.4%)
Americans with lower levels of education. Counties
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Colorado mortality rates compare favorably
with other states, and Summit, Pitkin, and Female Male Life Expectancy (years)
Source: Colorado Commission on Affordable Health Care, 2016
Eagle counties boast the greatest longevity in
the nation. However, good outcomes are not
This research hasFemale
important Male
implications for
uniform — rural areas, particularly in
the future of health and opportunity in
southeastern Colorado, fare worse than others,
Colorado. Our policy efforts should protect and
especially for male residents.
improve upon the gains Colorado has made
with respect to care and coverage, seek new
The Colorado Health Institute (CHI) illustrates
ways to lower costs for our system and for
the impact of income and education on health
individuals, and leverage the knowledge that
by pairing both with health survey results. Its
better health outcomes occur by enriching
analysis shows in Pueblo County and the San
how we live, work, learn, and play.
Luis Valley, which have some of these highest
poverty rates in the state, more than 1 of 5
residents report fair or poor health. Conversely, Protecting Colorado’s Gains
93 percent of Douglas County residents say
they are healthy — Douglas County has the Colorado capitalized on reforms made possible
state’s lowest poverty rate and nearly 80 by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) — reforms
percent of its residents have pursued championed by bipartisan state-led health
postsecondary education. reform efforts in 2008. Colorado created its
own health insurance exchange, expanded
37
Medicaid coverage at no cost to the General Lowering Costs and Spending
Gund, tested innovative ways to pay for care,
and piloted approaches allowing people to get Despite its positive changes, the ACA failed to
physical and behavioral health care in a more lower health costs. State policymakers must
streamlined, integrated way. Medicaid’s focus on Colorado’s pain points related to cost
expansion also expanded Colorado’s economy, and work to alleviate them.
bumping up household earnings, prompting
job growth, and increasing state General Fund Colorado residents in various communities,
revenue. These economic gains are projected especially in the western part of the state, rank
to grow into 2035. affordable health insurance high on the list of
key factors impacting economic opportunity,
A historic number of Coloradans now have per the Bell’s 2017 opportunity survey.
health insurance. The 2017 Colorado Health
Access Survey (CHAS) shows almost 600,000 In conducting research for this guide, Bell staff
more residents have insurance today than in attended conferences, interviewed experts, and
2013. At 6.5 percent, Colorado’s uninsured rate met with local leaders in different parts of
is down from nearly 18 percent 10 years ago. Colorado. At these meetings, we asked people to
complete a short questionnaire ranking the top
factors preventing people in their communities
Medicaid has become a vital insurer from achieving economic mobility. We also asked
for many Coloradans. Nearly 1 in 4 for them to indicate the importance of addressing
these issues. Overall, respondents to the
Coloradans — the majority of whom questionnaire ranked affordability issues at the top
are working — are now insured of their list, specifically:
• Affordable housing
through Medicaid. In 10 counties, • Affordable health insurance
more than 40 percent of the • Affordable high-quality child care
population is enrolled in the program. We cite these findings throughout the report as we
discuss the different forces affecting economic
There are still improvements to be made, as mobility and the policies to promote opportunity
Colorado’s health gains haven’t been felt throughout Colorado.
equally by all. Historically vulnerable
populations, such as immigrants, non-citizens, In northwest Colorado, for example, residents
and people of color, particularly Hispanic are proud of their healthy lifestyles, but are
Coloradans, are more likely to be uninsured stressed about the “astronomical” cost of rural
than others, as are those who make just over health care and the distance they must travel
the income threshold to be eligible for to get it.
subsidies.
CHI’s recent tour of the state uncovers similar
The Bell’s Opportunity Handbook shows concerns about cost, as well as confusion
having health insurance is the first step in about medical bills and insurance. Some
achieving better health and increasing struggle more with affordability than others,
opportunity. Not quite half of all Coloradans are particularly black or Hispanic Coloradans and
insured through their employers, but this trend those who are economically disadvantaged.
has been on the decline for some time. In fact, Nearly 80 percent of uninsured Coloradans
employer-sponsored insurance has declined by blame the high cost on their lack of insurance,
14 percent since 2009, according to historical but even those with insurance find health care
CHAS data. As fewer workers are offered health unaffordable largely due to insurance
care through their jobs and the number of premiums and out-of-pocket costs.
those in alternative work arrangements
increases, Colorado must preserve and Health insurance premiums have been slowly
enhance a broader, universally accessible but steadily rising for many Coloradans, both
system so people get meaningful, affordable for those insured by employers and those who
care.
receive premium tax credits, and are thus
shielded from volatile price increases on the
38
individual market. Unfortunately, people A large majority of Coloradans self-report
buying private insurance who don’t qualify for spending 5 percent or less of income on health
subsidies (those making over 400 percent of expenses, but consumers say they take other
the federal poverty level, or just under $100,000 actions to combat costs, such as skipping
for a family of four) have been financially doctor visits or prescriptions. Adding in
squeezed. These Coloradans have experienced premium costs increases the burden. A 2015
double-digit rate increases over the past few Commonwealth Fund study reveals Colorado
years and will contend with a 34 percent workers are paying 9.5 percent of their median
average increase in 2018, per the Division of household income toward total health costs
Insurance. The problem is acute in rural, (premiums and out-of-pocket spending), up
frontier, and mountain resort communities, from 6.2 percent a decade earlier.
which have some of the highest health costs in
the country and where the cost of living is also Finally, medical debt and the burden it places
high.
on Colorado families warrants focus. Medical
bankruptcies have greatly lessened, and only
Out-of-pocket health spending is rising 14 percent of Coloradans overall say they
dramatically as health insurance plans grow struggle to pay medical bills, a number that
less generous and more workers have high- has decreased since implementation of the
deductible health plans. These costs will ACA. However, those who do struggle must risk
“accelerate” in the next decade, per the Centers financial security just to cover costs. This is
for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The especially true for low- and middle-income
Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) illustrates how Coloradans.
personal health spending has grown for all
workers over the past 10 years, especially for
women, older adults, and those undergoing Of Those Struggling,
Of Those Struggling, This Is How
expensive treatments. JPMorgan Chase
finds Coloradans between the ages of 18 and
This IsThey Try to Cover Costs
How They Try to Cover Costs
64 have the highest out-of-pocket spending
50.8%
out of a 23-state sample.
0-100% FPL 22.8%
49.4%
20%
74.3%
17.7% 18.2% 17.9% 201-300% FPL 54.4%
40.5%
Percent Struggling
15% 14%
78.3%
10% 301-400% FPL 50.2%
18.6%
5%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Percent Struggling
0% s
dan FPL 00% FP
L FPL % FP
L Cannot Pay for Basic Needs (Food, Rent, Utilities)
olora 0-100% 300% 01-400
All C 101-2 201- 3
Took On Credit Card Debt
Source: Colorado Health Institute 2017 CHAS data
Cut Back on Savings or Borrowed From Savings
39
Colorado’s General Fund is pinched by rising publicly fund LTSS. Expanding home- and
costs as well. The state’s annual growth rate on community-based services (HCBS) and
health spending is growing faster than the requiring Medicare to pay for respite (a break
economy’s rate, just as it is nationally, and will from caregiving) should be of interest to
likely do so in the future, according to the Colorado. Colorado is recognized as a leader in
Colorado Commission on Affordable Health providing LTSS, and lawmakers have
Care. Thus, a greater share of governmental consistently supported efforts to improve these
spending is going to health care. services, which serve 44,000 people in the
state. Recent examples include eliminating
Many programs would benefit from decreased waiting lists and implementing
health costs, but Medicaid, which accounts for recommendations to improve respite care
about one-quarter of General Fund spending, statewide. However, the LTSS Scorecard
would be the most obvious winner. In addition suggests there is room for improvement.
to rising health costs overall, increasing aging
and disabled populations play a role. Medicaid The BPC also encourages private sector
is hit hard by an aging population because it’s solutions, such as participation in private long-
the primary payer of long-term services and term care insurance (LTCI) policies through
supports (LTSS), which can be quite costly. LTSS employers, allowing these policies to be sold
aren’t covered by Medicare or most other forms on health insurance exchanges, and making
of health insurance, so many people pay for them available through workplace retirement
this care themselves — at first. Many middle- plans. These ideas deserve consideration, but
class Coloradans will reach a point when they there are real barriers for consumers. Few
can no longer afford to pay for long-term care carriers offer LTCI (and many plans have gone
on their own. They will be forced to spend insolvent), existing policies are not robust or
down their assets to the point where they affordable, and only half of Coloradans have
qualify for Medicaid to help with those costs. access to workplace retirement savings in the
first place.
Because of federal rules around the program,
state Medicaid programs must provide nursing
home care to those who are eligible for it —
Leveraging Social Programs
and nursing home care is very expensive.
Over 60 percent of “health” is the result of
Genworth, which tracks long-term care costs,
social, environmental, and behavioral factors.
calculates the annual cost for a private room in
Addressing these factors can lead to a major
a Colorado nursing home is $102,564. Colorado
return on investment. Analysis by Harvard
also provides Home and Community Based
Business School and Yale School of Public
Services (HCBS), which are optional, more cost-
Health finds, “substantial evidence of improved
effective Medicaid programs. Medicaid has
health outcomes and/or reduced health care
been, and will continue to be, a vital support
spending” when housing, income support,
for older Coloradans.
nutrition, and other social factors are
addressed. When Coloradans have these basic
The Colorado Futures Center finds the state’s
necessities it improves health equity, a term
changing demographics and a faster rate of
that refers to the philosophy all people should
inflation on the cost of care for older enrollees
have the opportunity to lead healthy lives,
(not the Medicaid expansion) will place
regardless of race, ethnicity, income, school
pronounced pressure on Medicaid over the
district, or zip code.
next 12 years. One out of every five Medicaid
dollars will be spent on the adults over age 65,
The United States is the only country without a
according to these estimates. The General
publicly financed health system and it far
Fund would greatly benefit from health care
outspends other industrialized nations when it
cost-reduction strategies aimed at best serving
comes to health costs, only to achieve poorer
older adults.
health outcomes. Conversely, it spends far less
on social services, including retirement and
The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC)
disability benefits, employment programs, and
recommends a variety of strategies to better
40
housing. The Commonwealth Fund’s research Many of the suggestions in this guide —
finds one influences the other, stating the U.S. increasing access to preschool and
health spending may “crowd out” other types kindergarten, providing workers paid family
of spending supporting health. and medical leave, raising wages, increasing
investment in affordable higher education and
Existing state initiatives are leveraging social housing — would also have dramatic positive
programs to benefit health. An environmental impacts on Coloradans’ health. If we support
scan published by the Colorado Department of these programs, we improve health.
Public Health and Environment points out an
abundance of statewide and local level
programs that aim to improve health
outcomes using a social determinants lens. For
instance, Colorado is poised to create “health
neighborhoods” for all Health First Colorado
members, which will link their medical care to
community resources.
Recommendations
Protect and improve upon Colorado’s Alleviate high costs for consumers by acting on
insurance gains. Specifically, Medicaid should Cost Commission recommendations. The Cost
be protected and Colorado should reject Commission spent three years studying,
federal block grants or similar financing discussing, and reaching bipartisan consensus
schemes. An evisceration of this funding would on ways to bend Colorado’s cost curve.
mean Colorado must find billions of General Colorado now has actionable strategies on how
Fund dollars to supplement the program or to target price transparency, protect
restrict care for children, the elderly, the poor, consumers from unexpected and inaccurate
and the disabled. Colorado also should oppose medical bills, support the health care
proposals which seek to limit enrollment in workforce, and reform how health services are
other ways, such as work requirements for paid for.
“able-bodied” adults. The research doesn’t
support a need for work requirements and Focus on financing long-term care. Coloradans
suggests they would have negative health and their families are not prepared for these
impacts for vulnerable people. costs and the state General Fund is similarly
unprepared to cover them as our population
Explore ways to leverage Medicaid and grows older. Colorado’s Strategic Action
Colorado’s insurance exchange. Policymakers Planning Group on Aging is charged with
have encouraged experimentation with creating recommendations around LTSS and
Medicaid payment reforms and new ways of can play an important role, along with the
delivering care, but should consider ways to newly created state Advisor on Aging in the
expand insurance options, increase Governor’s Office.
competition, and reduce costs. One idea is
creating a public “buy-in” option, an idea under Bend and blend spending toward social
consideration in other states and at the programs. Examples from the Cost
national level. These programs can be Commission include folding in funding for
structured in a variety of ways and could be housing and employment within our Medicaid
offered on the exchange. system, creating a statewide screening and
referral system for children who experience
stressful or traumatic events, and investing in
quality preschool for children insured through
Medicaid.
41
Asset Building:
Cultivating Wealth
While income is critical and determines how Help Coloradans Create College
families meet basic needs, building assets is
one of the key drivers to help families move Savings Accounts
into the middle class and build a stable and
prosperous economic future. Assets cushion The future of work and automation clearly
families against temporary setbacks and shows all workers will need continuous training
provide the foundation for investments that and education throughout their careers.
help families get ahead over the long term. However, Colorado students from low- and
Plus, they can be passed on from one middle-income families are less likely to enroll
generation to the next, adding to a family’s in college than students from other income
wealth. levels. In 2015, 42 percent of Colorado students
whose family incomes were low enough to
Assets consist of checking accounts, stock qualify for free and reduced lunch enrolled in
mutual funds, 401(k) plans, and other financial college right out of high school, compared to
accounts. They can also be nonfinancial items 62 percent of the students whose family
such as homes, vehicles, and businesses. incomes were higher.
National data shows families with higher
incomes have more assets and assets with One way to turn this around is to help low- to
greater value. The number, value, and type of middle-income families create education
assets owned also varies by race, with whites savings accounts. Considerable research shows
having more on average than blacks and having even small amounts of college
Hispanics. savings helps. Children from low- to middle-
income families with $500 or less in savings are
Minorities Hold Less Assets
Minorities Hold Less Assets three times more likely to enroll in college
than children with no savings, and four times
13.3%
White, Non-
17.5% more likely to graduate.
Hispanic
60.4%
1.7%
Black, Non- College Savings Accounts Increase
4.7%
Hispanic Likelihood of College Graduation
33.6%
1.7%
Hispanic, Accounts $500
4.2% 33%
Latino and Over
29.7%
9.7% Accounts $1 to
Multiple Races, 25%
14.2% $499
Other
48%
No College
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Savings 5%
Percent of Families Holding Asset Accounts
43
Payday lenders are exempt from Colorado’s 36
percent limit. Instead, they charge a series of
fees along with a 45 percent interest rate on
Recommendations
these loans.
Colorado should help set up a 529 college
savings account for every student in the
Colorado also allows high-cost installment
Colorado Preschool Program and match the
loans that average almost $9,000 with terms
first $50 of deposits and any additional
ranging from three years to six years and
savings made to the accounts dollar-for-
average interest rates of about 22 percent.
dollar up to $100. A bill (HB16-1196) to create
While lenders have lobbied the legislature to
a pilot program like this was considered in
increase the rates they can charge, the
2016 with the goal of creating 2,000 savings
Attorney General’s office, which regulates
accounts per year for three years. It died in
them, found the rate increase was not needed.
Colorado’s State Senate. A portion of the tax
savings from reforming and limiting the
subsidy provided to large corporations for
collecting state sales taxes could be used to
fund these accounts.
44
Housing:
Calling Colorado Home
Colorado is an attractive place to live, thanks to less of their income on rent or mortgage
a booming economy and vast recreational payments. Those who spend over 30 percent
opportunities, but one major obstacle stands in are considered cost burdened, while renters
the way of many families achieving economic and homeowners spending 50 percent or
opportunity: affordable housing. more are extremely cost burdened. This leaves
individuals with less to spend on other crucial
An affordable home promotes opportunity as it costs, such as food and child care; nationwide,
not only provides shelter, but supports cost-burdened families often spend nearly half
educational success, achieves asset building, as much on health care and 40 percent less on
and heightens well-being. In addition, housing food.
is integral to two-generation success, as
children living in safe and healthy housing As the number of people moving to Colorado is
have higher test scores, a higher likelihood to outpacing the growth in available housing
obtain job training or a postsecondary degree, units, especially along the Front Range, many
and higher average lifetime earnings. National families struggle to find viable options. In 2015,
statistics from Enterprise Community Partners Colorado built 26,000 housing units, but this
show for people with stable housing, health still lags behind growing household formations
problems lessen and wellness is elevated, with of 33,000 to 35,000 per year. The increasing
Medicaid costs reduced by 45 percent. number of households in Colorado and dearth
of construction for multi-family units is part of
Economists consider housing affordable if the reason for the current lack of affordable
renters or homeowners spend 30 percent or housing.
12.5% 11.82%
11.23%
10.73% 10.85%
10.2% 9.95%
10%
Price Appreciation
7.5%
7.5%
6.58%
6%
5%
2.5%
0% e s
verag
e verag t Collins er er pring reeley lo ction
U.S. A ado A For Bould Denv ado S G Pueb d Jun
Color Color Gran
Source: Colorado Office of State Planning & Budgeting 2017, The Colorado Outlook: Economic and Fiscal Review
45
Which Colorado Renters Are Most Cost Burdened?
Which Colorado Renters Are
Farmer $11.32/hour
Janitor $11.97/hour
Firefighter $25.19/hour
47
When the price of housing far exceeds people’s disproportionally affect people of color. In
ability to pay, it can result in dire Denver specifically, most evictions occur in
consequences. A University of Denver report neighborhoods with a high percentage of
says, “A recent influx of new residents to people of color and areas experiencing
Colorado combined with a steady decline of gentrification. These neighborhoods include
available low-income and affordable housing northeast Denver’s Elyria Swansea, Clayton,
has contributed to a 600 percent increase in North Park Hill, and west Denver’s Westwood,
the homeless population from the late 1990s to Valverde, Ruby Hill, and Sun Valley.
2010.”
50
Increased pay equity would mean over However, many of the Pay Equity Commission’s
ideas, such as creating state oversight of pay
57 percent of the 748,000 Colorado equity policies, ensuring the state itself is a
kids with working mothers would see model employer, and partnering with business
benefits and the state’s poverty rate groups and educational institutions to
implement best practices, were left on the
could fall from 5.6 percent to 2.8 table.
percent.
The pay gap is affected by a host of factors.
Analysts with the Brookings Institution, Recommendations
the Economic Policy Institute, and the National
Women’s Law Center argue promoting work/ Colorado should revisit the Pay Equity
life balance policies such as paid leave and Commission’s recommendations and renew
improving investment in early care and efforts to implement them.
education could help mitigate some of the
known conditions that cause the pay gap. As a compilation of state laws from the
American Association of University of
However, research suggests an unexplained Women (AAUW) demonstrates, there is
pay gap (at least 7 percent in Colorado) still much more Colorado can do to eradicate
exists even when controlling for variables such the gap. In 2016, the Colorado House passed
as work experience, length of time in the legislation that would’ve implemented
workforce, educational attainment, different some of these best practices. One bill (HB16-
occupations, and negotiating practices. 1166) would have prohibited companies from
asking job applicants for their salary
In 2017, Colorado policymakers bolstered histories and the other (HB16-1001) would
protections around pay transparency, which have required state contractors to comply
can be especially impactful for women. In early with equal pay standards. Both bills were
August, the 2017 Colorado Pay Transparency killed in the Senate, but policymakers could
Act took effect, protecting all Colorado and should revive these efforts.
employees from discriminatory or unfair
employment practices if they discuss their Colorado should also take additional steps
wages and salaries with each other. This law outlined by the American Association of
strengthens 2008 pay transparency University of Women, such as requiring
protections already implemented in our state employers be liable for the costs and fees
— protections which have contributed to both incurred by employees in a successful
pay increases for women and a narrowing discrimination lawsuit. Currently, 33 other
wage gap, in particular for college-educated states do this.
women.
51
Ratio of Minimum Wages to Median Wages Across Colorado
Boulder-Longmont $22.21
Colorado Springs $17.9
Denver-Aurora $20.26
Fort Collins-Loveland $18.06
Grand Junction $16.82
Greeley $17.98
Pueblo $16.35
Eastern & Southern Colorado $14.81
Northwest Colorado $18.49
Southwest Colorado $16.52
Statewide $18.76
2017 Minimum Wage $9.3
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Occupational Employment and Wage Rates (OES), 2016
1. Be paid by salary, not per hour; This change would exceedingly help women,
2. Perform executive, administrative, or black, Hispanic, and younger workers and
professional duties; and, those whose highest level of education is a
3. Be paid above the current weekly standard high school diploma.
of $455 ($23,660 per year for a full-time,
year-round worker).
53
EITC Expansion
The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is a However, the EITC is much less generous for
federal tax credit that provides income support single and married taxpayers who have no
for low- to middle-income working families, children. It begins to phase out at about $8,200
particularly those with children. It’s a for a single taxpayer and about $14,000 for
refundable tax credit, meaning families receive married taxpayers. It ends completely for single
the full amount of the credit, even if the value taxpayers around $15,000 and $20,400 for
of the credit exceeds their income tax liability. married taxpayers. The maximum EITC for
The credit is applied to the income tax they single and married taxpayers without children
owe, and families receive what remains if the is $506.
credit is more than the tax owed.
A significant body of research shows the
Colorado has a state EITC, which offers a state federal EITC lifts millions of families out of
income tax credit equivalent to 10 percent of poverty each year and rewards work, especially
the federal EITC a taxpayer receives. Like the for low-income women. However, the much
federal EITC, Colorado’s is also refundable. The smaller EITC for childless workers provides less
rules governing the federal EITC are used to of an incentive for these women to enter the
determine eligibility for the state EITC. It’s workforce, as it offsets less payroll taxes and
estimated that in tax year 2015, over 380,000 other expenses.
Coloradans received the state EITC — valued
at about $220 on average. The value of the EITC could be enhanced by
increasing the value of the credit available to
The amount of the credit increases as the working people without dependent children
worker’s earnings grow from zero to about and by increasing the level of income they can
$10,000 to $14,000 for single and married earn before it phases out.
taxpayers with children, respectively,
depending on the number of children in the The District of Columbia expanded its EITC for
family. The amount of the tax credit gradually workers without dependent children so single
declines beginning around $18,000 for single workers receive the maximum EITC at $12,060,
taxpayers with children and about $24,000 for phasing out completely at $24,120. For married
married taxpayers with children. The maximum workers, the limits are $24,360 and
amount of the federal EITC is $6,269 for $32,480. This type of reform would best be
taxpayers with three or more children. The EITC done at the federal level, but Colorado could
phases out completely at about $48,000 for act if the federal government does not.
single taxpayers and at about $53,500 for
married taxpayers with three or more children.
Recommendation
Colorado should work with its Congressional
delegation to expand the federal Earned
Income Tax Credit for workers without
dependent children. If the federal
government won’t act, Colorado should
increase the amount of the state EITC for
workers without dependent children.
54
Making Work Pay Paid Family and Medical Leave
Paid family and medical leave — compensated
Building a Balance with Paid Leave,
time for workers to care for loved ones or
Dependent Care, and Flexibility themselves — is not guaranteed in the United
States. Research from the Organisation for
“Work/life balance,” a concept allowing workers Economic Co-operation and Development
to accommodate both professional and (OECD) shows 40 other countries across five
personal needs, may be a rallying cry of the continents provide paid leave, ranking the U.S.
modern workforce, but few policy solutions or in last place and making it the only developed
employer initiatives have yet to make it a nation without such a standard. The Bureau of
mainstay for American workers. Instead, many Labor Statistics’ most recent survey of workers
face less of a balance and more of a balancing finds only 13 percent of those in the private
act as they must reconcile stagnant wages and sector have access to paid family and medical
growing costs with sacrifices both on the job leave through their employers.
and at home.
The only federal law currently addressing the
Creating a system that integrates work and life need for caregiving is the Family and Medical
instead of putting the two at odds would be to Leave Act (FMLA), enacted 25 years ago. FMLA
the benefit of workers, loved ones, businesses, gives certain employees job-protected unpaid
and whole communities.
leave for up to 12 weeks, but not every worker
has this benefit. Businesses with under 50
employers are exempt from the law, and when
accounting for this and other exclusions, 2 out
of 5 workers do not have access to FMLA.
Construction 7,856
157,130
Manufacturing
14,276
142,760
Information 24,452
74,097
55
Who is Affected? Low-Income Families Forced to
Sacrifice to Cover Lost Pay When Paid
Leave Isn't Sufficient or Available
Analysis of national data by the Institute for
Data For Families Making $30,000 or Less
Women’s Policy Research (IWPR) shows
workers need family and medical leave for
different reasons and at different times in their
lives. For younger workers, leave is often used
78%
to care for a child, but older workers — who cut back on
statistically have more access to paid leave spending
than younger workers — generally use the
benefit to care for themselves. In fact, older
men have driven up the number of workers
taking leave for self-care by 10 percent over the
last 15 years. IWPR’s research emphasizes the
burden on working women, who are more
likely to take leave and less likely to receive pay
57%
when doing so. took on
debt
According to BLS data, income earners in the
top 10 percent are six times as likely to have
access to paid leave compared to those in the
bottom 10 percent. A Pew Research Center
survey reveals other inequities: Approximately
a quarter of Hispanic and a quarter of black
workers are unable to take leave, compared to
13 percent of white workers. Those with lower 48%
went on
levels of education are also less likely to have public
access.
assistance
57
Earned Paid Sick Leave
Employees Win
Earned paid sick time ensures employees’ job Paid sick time improves health for workers. An
security and income when they are away from increasing number of Coloradans cite the
work due to illness or injury. Unlike family and inability to take time off work as a barrier to
medical leave, which is used for longer-term accessing health care, ranking higher than the
absences, earned paid sick time is based on challenge of finding an in-network doctor.
the hours worked and helps employees in the Those without access to paid sick days are
short term. Earned paid sick policies often more likely to use emergency care rather than
include “safe time” provisions, which enable preventative and routine doctor’s visits for
workers to take this earned time off to deal themselves or their families, according to the
with the impacts of domestic violence. The National Partnership for Women and Families.
United States is the only industrialized country CDPHE finds paid sick leave policies could help
that fails to guarantee workers paid sick time.
decrease public health crises by limiting the
spread of communicable diseases and
A 2015 poll from Lake Research infections. To contrast, research done for the
National Bureau of Economic Research shows
Partners showed 88 percent of paid sick time laws in seven U.S. cities helped
respondents support workers earning prevent the flu from spreading.
paid sick days to care for themselves Certain industries like food service,
or family members. construction, farming, retail, and caregiving are
disproportionately affected by a lack of
Studies from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earned paid sick leave.
and Kaiser Family Foundation say between 68
percent to 70 percent of employers offer paid That means at least
sick time to their employees. Large 220,000
organizations are more likely to provide access waiters and waitresses,
than small firms, and public sector employers
are more likely to offer these policies than child care workers,
those in the private sector.
and nursing assistants
in Colorado are without
However, national surveys of employees reveal
the ability to earn paid
a significant number — between 40 million
sick days.
and 50 million nationwide — who say they are
unable to earn paid sick time. Approximately 2 1 Day Of Unpaid Sick Time
Source: Bell analysis using Institute for Women’s Policy
out of 5 Coloradans, or 870,607 people, lack Research data and Colorado Department of Labor and
1 Day Of Unpaid Sick Time
Certain industries like food service,
access to even one paid sick day, according to Employment data
Pay Equivalent to Monthly
forthcoming research done by the Institute for construction, farming, retail, and caregiving are
Phone or Electric Bill
Pay Equivalent to Monthly
disproportionately affected by a lack of
Women’s Policy Research (IWPR). Phone or Electric Bill
earned paid sick leave.
3 Days Of Unpaid Sick Time
People of color, low-wage workers, and those
That means at least
3 Days Of Unpaid Sick Time
employed in part-time, temporary, or seasonal Pay Equivalent to Monthly
jobs in Colorado have less access than others. 220,000
Groceries or Health Insurance
Pay Equivalent to Monthly
In fact, BLS data show 87 percent of private waiters and waitresses,
Groceries or Health Insurance
sector earners in the top 10 percent have
7 Days Of Unpaid Sick Time
child care workers,
access to paid sick time, while only 27 percent
of the lowest wage earners can say the same. 7 Days Of Unpaid Sick Time
and nursing assistants
Not Having Enough Money to
Hispanic workers are less likely to have paid Pay Monthly Rent or Mortgage
in Colorado are without
sick days than workers in any other racial or Not Having Enough Money to
the ability to earn paid
Pay Monthly Rent or Mortgage
ethnic group. sick days.
60 2006 2016
Source: Child Care Aware, Parents and the High Cost of Child Care, 2006-2016
more pronounced depending on geography, Total federal funding for CCCAP, the majority of
age of child, and type of care setting.
which comes from the Child Care and
Development Block Grant, has declined over
The factors leading to higher child care costs the past decade and a half — a $3 billion
are many and varied. They include regulations funding shortage after adjusting for inflation.
mandating caregiver ratios, the high overall
personnel costs for providers (even though State and local policymakers and
individual worker wages are low), high teacher administrators in Colorado have found ways to
turnover rates, the costs associated with maximize limited federal funding. Thanks to
putting quality early childhood education additional state investment, some Colorado
practices into place, and the fact the price of counties implemented a “cliff effect” pilot
child care rises in response to demand, which program, which enables CCCAP parents to
is high. Public programs that subsidize child gradually increase their incomes while
care pay a lower reimbursement rate to qualifying for reduced assistance. Additionally,
providers. As a result, providers have charged municipalities such as Breckenridge, Denver,
private-paying families more to offset their and Aspen, and some counties like Boulder,
losses. Dolores, Elbert, and Summit, are supporting
early childhood initiatives that boost teacher
Cost is made more prohibitive because the pay, expand child care facilities, and increase
United States has yet to prioritize public access for families. Often these efforts require
investment in ECE the same way it has for voter-approved tax increases dedicated to child
students in kindergarten and beyond. This care funding.
contributes to child care, particularly high-
quality care, being out of reach for many. Administrators in Breckenridge say child care
Public funding for child care assistance comes is as crucial to the town’s success as snow
from a patchwork of sources at the federal, plows, an argument that has convinced
state, and local level, and different programs officials to support the child care infrastructure
have different eligibility requirements for with General Fund dollars. Other local leaders
families. mention community demand for and concern
about affordability and access had to hit “a
The Colorado Child Care Assistance Program crisis point” in order for the needed public
(CCCAP), a statewide program administered at support to appear. State policymakers can
the county level, is Colorado’s largest publicly learn from and replicate local efforts which
funded child care support program. CCCAP increase public investment in child care —
offsets child care costs for low-income families ideally before it becomes a crisis.
and has recently undergone a variety of
changes to ensure higher quality child care is Without access to care, many parents must
available. Most CCCAP families are headed by decide between going back to work or staying
single parents, and qualitative research done at home to care for their child, which has ripple
by the Bell shows the program is a crucial effects for family economic mobility. According
support for families who work hard to get to research by the Colorado Department of
ahead, but cannot afford the high cost of child Public Health and Environment, licensed child
care on their own. As one parent explained, “If I care centers, family child care homes, and
didn’t have CCCAP, I couldn’t afford to have a preschools had the capacity for 106,000
job.” children in 2013, but 240,000 Colorado children
needed care. The Center for American Progress
Although Colorado has increased corroborates this finding, by examining the
locations of Colorado’s center-based early care
funding for CCCAP over the past few and education programs, including child care
years, it’s still underfunded and only centers, Head Start, and public and private
preschool programs.
serves about 13 percent of eligible
Colorado families.
61
CAP’s analysis shows 1 out of 3 Coloradans live
in a child care desert. Child care deserts are
defined as, “neighborhoods or communities
that are either lacking any child care options or
have so few child care providers that there are
more than three children for every licensed
child care slot.” When communities are faced
with this challenge, they must grapple with the
fallout from waiting lists, unlicensed
arrangements, or effects on parents’
employment decisions.
63
What Flexible Work Arrangements Do Colorado Employers Offer?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Employers Who Offer
Source: Health Links, Center for Health, Work & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health. Health Links Family Friendly Assessment Data 2017,
Unpublished raw aggregated data obtained December 6, 2017 from John Stuligross, Program Director of Health Links.
64
Unfortunately, workers have uneven access to seriously consider flexibility requests and only
flexible work arrangements. Analysis from deny them for valid business reasons. (Previous
Georgetown Law and the Urban Institute versions of this legislation also required
shows workers with lower wages and incomes employers in certain industries to offer
have less access to workplace flexibility, in part predictive scheduling.) Vermont enacted a
because of the work associated with lower- right-to-request law in 2013 as part of a broader
wage jobs. worker rights bill. Employees are guaranteed
the right to ask for flexible work arrangements
Experts from the Center for American Progress without fear of retaliation, and employers have
(CAP) point to data from the Bureau of Labor the “duty to consider” and discuss these
Statistics and the American Time Use Survey requests. New Hampshire passed a similar law
that shows just over half of workers can alter in 2016.
their schedule or work location instead of
taking leave or taking time off work. These
work arrangements are less likely to be
available to those with lower pay, Hispanic
workers, and those with only a high school
diploma. In fact, CAP notes workers with a Recommendations
college degree are nearly twice as likely to be
able to change their schedules than those who Colorado should follow the lead of cities and
only completed high school. states that created their own scheduling
and right-to-request laws.
Workers in low-wage jobs are also more likely
to have additional work schedule challenges. Colorado should recognize and celebrate
The Center for Law and Social Policy (CLASP) organizations that offer workflex options
summarizes schedule challenges experienced and other worker-friendly policies by
by hourly workers, including irregular shifts, creating a formal state-sponsored award or
short-notice of upcoming shifts, shift certification program. States like Arkansas
fluctuation from week to week, and the fact and New Mexico and cities like Juneau and
many have jobs requiring them to be “on-call” Santa Clara have offered these awards, and
every day. employers reported benefitting from the
recognition in many ways. In 2016, the
When Oregon’s governor signed SB 828, it legislature considered the Colorado Family
became the first state to create a predictive First Employer Program (HB16-1167), which
scheduling law, joining cities like San Francisco, would have created such a program.
Seattle, and New York. Predictive scheduling Though the measure died in the Colorado
requires employers give employees advance Senate, it provides another template for
notice about work schedules and guarantees improving workplace flexibility in Colorado.
employee pay if those schedules are changed
without notification. Greater shift predictability
and guaranteed pay have both economic and
two-generation implications, as workers can
plan their finances accordingly and account for
child or dependent care. Employers also
benefit from reduced turnover, increased
productivity, and decreased absenteeism.
65
When education level is considered, those
Rejoining the without a high school diploma or the
equivalent are far more likely to be
67
In recent years, six states — California,
Retirement Ready Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, and
Vermont — enacted legislation to provide
workplace retirement plans for their private-
In a 2016 study, the Bell Policy Center found
sector workers who don’t have access to one.
almost 900,000 Colorado private sector
These states are in various stages of
workers in their prime working years aren’t
establishing public-private partnerships to
participating in any type of retirement savings
create and run voluntary, low-cost, automatic
plans at work. More than 80 percent — or
enrollment workplace retirement savings plans.
753,972 Coloradans — work for employers who
don’t offer a retirement savings plan.
California, Connecticut, and Oregon completed
detailed market and financial analyses showing
The number of Coloradans aged 65 and older
how their plans, as currently designed, are
— the traditional age when workers retire — is
financially sustainable under a variety of
projected to grow by 77 percent between 2015
economic scenarios. Oregon started enrolling
and 2030. The state and local government will
workers in a pilot program in July and is rolling
face a crisis if people retire without adequate
out their plan to firms with 100 or more workers
savings and turn to public programs for
in January 2018. Currently, the program has
support.
over 1,100 workers and 50 employers
participating. California, Connecticut, and
In Colorado, low-wage workers, members of
Illinois are expected to begin enrolling workers
minority groups, young workers, those working
in their plans in 2019.
in small businesses, and those working in
specific industries are the least likely to have a
If we want all Coloradans to experience a
retirement savings plan at work.
financially secure retirement as a just reward
for a life of hard work, we need to ensure there
Which Colorado Workers Are Less Likely to are appropriate mechanisms in place to help
Have a Workplace Retirement Plan? them save. The lowest-income retirees in
Colorado, many with limited retirement
savings, currently depend on Social Security for
Agriculture Industry 88% 80 percent of their income, even though it is
designed to replace about 40 percent of their
Small Firm Workers 81% income in retirement.
68
Studies also show raising the retirement
savings for workers with the lowest earnings
will save state and local governments
Recommendation
millions of dollars in social spending.
Colorado should follow the lead of six other
Economists at the University of Maine, say
states and enact the Secure Savings Plan to
increasing retirement income by $1,000 per
create a public-private partnership to
year for the lowest income retirees would save
develop and operate a retirement savings
Colorado taxpayers $155 million in state safety
plan for private sector workers without
net spending over 15 years. Economists at
access to one at work. The plan should have
Brigham Young University determined if the
automatic enrollment, low-fees, and
one-third of Utah’s retirees with the lowest
portability among jobs in Colorado.
savings had increased their savings by just 10
percent over their working years — or about
$14,000 — the state would have saved $194
million in federal and state government
spending over 15 years.
69
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements & Special Thanks Board of Directors
J.B. Holston, dean of the Daniel Felix Ritchie Samantha Saccomanno, Public Interest Fellow
School of Engineering and Computer Science
at University of Denver, for sharing information Sarah Prendergast, Research Fellow
about the effects of automation.
Lindsey Vigoda, MSW Fellow
Rural Philanthropy Days and community
members in Grand Junction, Durango, and Erin Castillo, Generation Latino Fellow
Grand County, who hosted research meetings
for the Bell. Erin Moriarty-Siler, Director of Communications
70
Through research, outreach, and advocacy, the Bell Policy Center identifies
the challenges threatening Coloradans’ ability to get ahead and stay ahead
and amplifies progressive solutions that work for real Coloradans.
We are focused on raising the economic floor, building a diverse and thriving
middle class, and sparking innovative ideas to prepare us for the future.
The Bell
Policy Center
The Bell Policy Center
1905 Sherman Street, Suite 900 Denver, CO 80203
303.297.0456
www.bellpolicy.org