Professional Documents
Culture Documents
−∑ k
p
1=
nxbknya k )( − + 0
)( ........................................ (1)
where )(nx , )(ny represent input and output data respectively and
a k
, p denote the
model coefficients and model order respectively. Thus, an AR (p) model simply denotes AR model of
order p . Various methods exist for determining the values of these unknown parameters among which
include autocorrelation, covariance, least square approach and most recently the use of ANN [21-24]. AR
modeling technique has received the most attention in the technical review among other existing
parametric modeling techniques in the last few years [21-30]. The ease associated with the computation of
its model parameters and its robustness have been identified as reasons associated with its increasing
popularity and usage [21-24].
The fusion of ANN and AR model has been proposed in [21-22]. It involves the use of a four stage
approach namely data simulation or acquisition, data formatting, ANN- based AR model training and
parameter estimation for the determination of AR model coefficients from the synaptic weights and
activation function coefficients of an ANN.
Detailed discussion regarding all the processes involved and the mathematical derivation of the proposed
technique is contained and has been presented in [21-24], however, the use of this hybrid approach for
DnD price prediction is presented in this paper. Other previous applications of this novel technique
include Retina Fundus
133
image mask generation [22], voice activity detection, data classification [21], signal analysis and
classification [23-24] etc. The block diagram of the appliad technique is as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3: RVNN-based AR model block diagram [21]
AR model coefficients
a k
= ∑
M
l
lkll
. .................................... (2)
where
kl
a k
α
1=
vw 1 β v is the weight connecting input node k to hidden node l ,
β l
is the
adaptive coefficient of hidden node linear activation,
w 1l
is the weight connecting
node l in the hidden layer to output layer
Results obtained with some part of it shown in Table 1 demonstrates that the use of ANN-BASED AR
technique shows better performance in term of accurately predicting the price of dinar coin for the whole
period under consideration. Furthermore, it has also been observed that the predicted price using
ANN-BASED AR (4) model is very close to the actual price unlike the predicted price using AR (4)
approach. One of the intended real life application of this approach aside from its usage for investment
purpose is to know when to buy or sell coin is in the development of a programmable Hajj saving box.
Hajj, one of the five pillars of religion of Islam requires long-term saving. As most of the Muslim
majority countries are developing countries and also facing financial instabilities, savings tend to lose
value due to depreciation of the national currencies, political and economic conditions prevailing in such
a country. As a solution to this problem, hajj saving in gold or silver has been proposed as the solution to
this paper
136
money devaluation. Previous studies have proven that there is a significant effect in cost of hajj when it is
priced in gold and silver as opposed to paper currency or fiat money [32]. In fulfilling the fifth pillars of
Islam, various Governmental and Non Governmental organizations have been instituted in various
Muslim countries among which are: Tabung Hajj in Malaysia, Department Agama of Indonesia, Muslim
Prilgrimage Board in Nigeria etc. Though, some of these institutions do help pilgrims to manage their
saved funds in a most efficient manner, however, providing solution to the problem of inflation and
currency devaluation is beyond their capacity. One of the global solutions to the above named problem is
pricing and savings for hajj in DnD [32]. The authors proved beyond reasonable doubt that the existing
correlation between the prices of crude oil has been one of the factors responsible for increasing cost of
performing this obligatory responsibility in Islam. However, despite, the inflation associated with paper
currency, there is great comparative cost saving advantage when the pricing and saving is done using
dinar and dirham. Thus, recommending the use of DnD for saving purpose especially when it involves
long term saving like Hajj [32].
A proof of concept of a novel programmable DnD coin based hajj saving electronic device has been
designed and developed as part of application of this work. The device is fitted with a two inch liquid
crystal display (LCD), to convert the instantaneous value of the coin in the saving compartment to
alphanumeric numerals for display on the LCD screen. Aside the content value display, a tampered proof
unit has been fitted on the device and warning alert sound is triggered in case of unwarranted access of the
content. The algorithm proposed in this work will enable prediction of the value of the DnD coin in the
box. Initial market survey, acceptance test and display of this product have also been carried out and the
artistic view of the saving box is shown in Figure 5. Thus, this saving box is one of the intended
applications of the proposed DnD price prediction algorithm, a contribution to the fulfillment of the fifth
pillar of Islam and a step towards establishing a non- inflationary and stable shariah compliant savings
and economy.
Figure 5: Programmable DnD coin saving box
Conclusion
In this work, application of ANN- based AR model for the prediction of dinar price has been discussed. It
has been shown that the use of ANN-based AR (4) model shows better performance in accurately
predicting the price of dinar coin over the period under consideration. It has also been shown that the
developed prediction algorithm can be incorporated into some DnD based devices.
137
Acknowledgement
This work is partially supported by IIUM grant EDW A10-0638 and EDW A11-100-0891
References
[1] U.I. Vadillo, “The Architecture of the Gold Dinar Economy: An Academic Perspective,” in
Proceedings of 2002 International Conference on Stable and Just Global Monetary System, 19-20 August
2002, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, pp. 335-360, 2002
[2] U. I. Vadillo, U. I., “Fatwa on Banking: the use of interest received on bank deposits”Retrieved on
January 18, 2010. http://www.scribd.com/doc/15637743/Fatwa-on-Banking
[3] U. I. Vadillo, “Paper Money: A Legal Judgment” . Retrieved on January 20, 2011
http://www.shaykhabdalqadir.com/content/articles/Art029_04112004.html.
[4] U. I Vadillo “The History of the Dinar & Dirham” , online article, accessed January 18, 2010
[5] 11] Imrān N. Hosein, “The Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham: Islam and the future of Money”,
138
[6] Imrān N. Hosein, “YouTube - Islam & the International Monetary System 1”, accessed online.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6iFFs0l3fs
[7] A.K. M. Meera, "Hedging with gold dinar", EDGE Businessdaily, 19-26 August 2002, pp.58, 2002.
[8] Meera, A.K. M, "Gold dinar in multilateral trade", International Seminar on Gold Dinar in Multilateral
Trade, Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, 22-23 October, Institute of Islamic Understanding, 2002.
[9] A.K. M. Meera, The Theft of Nations, Pelanduk Publications, Subang Jaya, Malaysia,2004 .
[10] A.K. M. Meera and M. Larbani,, "Part I. Seigniorage of fiat money and the Maq ̄asid al-Shar
̄i’ah: the unattainableness of the Maq ̄asid", Humanomics, 2004 .
[11] A.K.M Meera and H. A. Aziz, H.A., “The Islamic Gold Dinar: Socio-economic Perspectives”, in
Proceedings of 2002 International Conference on Stable and Just Global Monetary System, 19-20 August
2002, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, pp. 151-175,2002.
[12]A.K. M. Meera, “The Islamic Gold Dinar”, Subang Jaya, Pelanduk Publications, Malaysia,2002
[13] M. M. Sanusi, "Gold dinar, paper currency and monetary stability: an Islamic view", Proceeding of
the 2002 International Conference on Stable and Just Global Monetary System, Kuala Lumpur, 19-20
August, 2002, pp.73-89, 2002.
[14] A. Abdul Hamid and N. Azmin Mohd Nordin, “Dinar and Dirham Effect on the banking business and
its solution” Proceeding of the 2002 International Conference on Stable and Just Global Monetary
System, Kuala Lumpur, 19-20 August, 2002, 2002.
[15] N. Mahani, “Between Islamic Bank and the Gold Dinar-a Compilation of Paper & Articles.
Malaysia: Saba Islamic Media Sdn Bhd. [16] Malaysia’s Kelantan State issues its own gold and silver
currency, accessed online:
http://inteltrends.wordpress.com/2010/08/16/malaysias-kelantan-state-issues-its-own-
gold-and-silver-currency/
[17] Ku Li voices support for Kelantan dinar,
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/ku-li-voices-support-for- kelantan-dinar/ accessed
online, July 1st 2011
[18] Perak launches gold dinars and silver dirhams,
http://www.nst.com.my/nst/articles/Peraklaunchesgolddinarsandsilverdirhams/Article/ accessed online
July 1st 2011.
139
[19] Utah Legalizes Gold, Silver Coins As Currency,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/utah-gold-standard-silver_n_865333.html accessed online,
July 1st 2011.
[20] Y. H. Hu and J Hwang, \ Introduction to Neural Networks for Signal Processing," CRC Press LLC,
2002.
[21] A. M. Aibinu, M. Nilsson, M. J. E. Salami and A. A. Shafie , `` Voice Activity Detection Using
Modeling Approach'' submitted for publication in Computers in Medicine and Biology, 2010.
[22] A. M. Aibinu, M. J. E. Salami, and A. A. Shafie “Retina Fundus Image Mask Generation Using
Pseudo Parametric Modeling Technique”, IIUM Engineering Journal, December, 2010
[23] A. M. Aibinu, M. J. E. Salami, and A. A. Shafie ``Determination of Complex- Valued Parametric
Model Coefficients Using Artificial Neural Network Technique'', AANS, Volume 2010 (2010), Article ID
984381
[24] A. M. Aibinu, M. J. E. Salami, and A. A. Shafie “A novel signal diagnosis technique using pseudo
complex-valued autoregressive technique”, Expert Systems with Applications, 2011.
[25] S. Haykin, `` Neural Networks: A comprehensive foundation, 2nd ed.'', Eaglewood, Cliffs, NJ:
Prentice Hall. [26] E. N. Bruce, ``Biomedical Signal Processing and Signal Modeling,'' Willey Press,
2000. [27] S. L. Marple, ``Digital Spectral Analysis with Applications''. Prentice Hall, Inc., 1987.
[28] M. H. Hayes, ``Statistical Digital Signal Processing and Modeling'', John Wiley and Sons, New
York, 1996
[29] J. G. Proakis and D.G. Manolakis, ``Digital Signal Processing: Principles, Algorithms and
Applications'', 4th ed., Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007.
[30] A. M Aibinu, M.J.E Salami and A.A.Shafie, Blood Glucose Level Prediction Using Modeling
Approaches’, International Technical Conference of IEEE Region10, TENCON - 2010, pp 1734-1737,
Japan,21-24 Nov. 2010.
[31] Daily Dinar price accessed online from www.woorldislamicmint.com and www.dinarkel.com,
accessed on July 9th 2011.
[32] S. Arai, “The possibility of Saving and pricing of Hajj in Gold: A case study of Tabung Haji of
Malaysia and a comparison with the Indonesia Experience”, Unpublished M. Sc thesis, 2009.
140
141