Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FEBRUARY 2018
2018 SENATE RACE
© Copyright 2018
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
NO CHANGE IN FLORIDA SENATE RACE
NELSON HOLDS INSIGNIFICANT 1-POINT LEAD OVER SCOTT
The potential Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and term-
limited Republican Governor Rick Scott has remained static over the last four
months. Statewide, Nelson holds a narrow 45%-44% lead over Scott, not
significantly different than the 44%-44% tie posted in October.
11%
45%
NELSON
SCOTT
44%
UNDECIDED
The change in support for each candidate over the past year – Nelson -1% and
Scott +3% – falls within the combined margin for error of all three Mason-Dixon
Florida polls.
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
Demographically, there has also been little change. Nelson remains ahead among
Democrats (81%-9%), women (51%-37%), blacks (83%-6%) and Hispanics (56%-
34%). Scott still has the advantage with Republicans (84%-4%), men (52%-39%)
and whites (55%-34%). Those with no party affiliation continue to lean for Scott
(49%-38%).
Nelson still has a large lead in Southeast Florida (61%-28%), but Scott continues to
hold wide margins in North Florida (58%-32%) and Southwest Florida (56%-35%).
The decisive “I-4 corridor” is divided within itself -- Scott leads in the Central
Florida region (47%-41%), but Nelson has moved ahead in Tampa Bay (46%-41%).
Scott continues to be viewed favorably by more state voters than Nelson (42%-
37%), but also still has more voters who view him unfavorably (32%-24%).
120%
100% 3%
12%
23%
80%
27% DON'T RECOGNIZE
60% NEUTRAL
32%
24% UNFAVORABLE
40%
FAVORABLE
0%
SCOTT NAME ID NELSON NAME ID
With opinion of President Donald Trump in Florida still about as evenly split as it
was on Election Day 2016 -- 44% favorable/45% unfavorable -- all signs point to a
fierce contest. With such little movement over the course of a year, particularly
given the strong level of partisanship within Congress and the divisiveness among
voters in their views of President Trump, this race may be destined to become the
bellwether contest of the country.
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
QUESTION: If the 2018 election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today,
for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Nelson, the Democrat and
Rick Scott, the Republican?
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from January 30 through February 1, 2018. A total of 625 registered
Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
DEMOGRAPHICS
PARTY REGISTRATION:
AGE:
18-34 102 (16%)
35-49 153 (24%)
50-64 187 (30%)
65+ 179 (29%)
Refused 4 (1%)
RACE/ETHNICITY:
White/Caucasian 414 (66%)
Black/African American 85 (14%)
Hispanic or Cuban 107 (17%)
Other 12 (2%)
Refused 7 (1%)
SEX:
Male 293 (47%)
Female 332 (53%)
REGION:
North Florida 135 (22%)
Central Florida 120 (19%)
Tampa Bay 115 (18%)
Southwest Florida 75 (12%)
Southeast Florida 180 (29%)
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
FLORIDA POLL REGIONS
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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll