Za

doi:10.
1093/jicru/ndl001
SAMPLING FOR RADIONUCLIDES IN THE ENVIRONMENT
Report Committee
F. W. Whicker (Chairman), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
K. Bunzl, GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Neuherberg, Germany
P. Dixon, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA
E. M. Scott, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
S. C. Sheppard, Ecomatters, Inc., Pinawa, Manitoba, Canada
G. Voigt, IAEA-International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria
Commission Sponsors
H. G. Menzel, CERN-European Organization for Nuclear Research, Geneva, Switzerland
H. Paretzke, GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Neuherberg, Germany
Consultants to the Report Committee

A. Ulanovsky, GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Neuherberg, Germany
The Commission wishes to express its appreciation to the individuals involved in the preparation of this report,
for the time and efforts which they devoted to this task and to express its appreciation to the organizations with
which they are affiliated.
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Journal of the ICRU Vol 6 No 1 (2006) Report 76 doi:10.1093/jicru/ndl020
Oxford University Press
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION ON RADIATION UNITS

AND MEASUREMENTS
INTRODUCTION feels that action based on expediency is inadvisable

The International Commission on Radiation Units from a long-term viewpoint; it endeavors to base
and Measurements (ICRU), since its inception in its decisions on the long-range advantages to be
1925, has had as its principal objective the develop- expected.
ment of internationally acceptable recommenda- The ICRU invites and welcomes constructive com-
tions regarding: ments and suggestions regarding its recommenda-
(1) quantities and units of radiation and radio- tions and reports. These may be transmitted to the
activity, Chairman.
(2) procedures suitable for the measurement and
application of these quantities in clinical radio- CURRENT PROGRAM
logy and radiobiology, and
(3) physical data needed in the application of these The Commission recognizes its obligation to pro-
procedures, the use of which tends to assure vide guidance and recommendations in the areas of
uniformity in reporting. radiation therapy, radiation protection, and the com-
The Commission also considers and makes similar pilation of data important to these fields, and to
types of recommendations for the radiation protec- scientific research and industrial applications of
tion field. In this connection, its work is carried out radiation. Increasingly, the Commission is focusing
in close cooperation with the International Commis- on the problems of protection of the patient and
sion on Radiological Protection (ICRP). evaluation of image quality in diagnostic radiology.
These activities do not diminish the ICRU’s commit-
ment to the provision of a rigorously defined set of
quantities and units useful in a very broad range of
POLICY
scientific endeavors.
The ICRU endeavors to collect and evaluate the The Commission is currently engaged in the
latest data and information pertinent to the pro- formulation of ICRU reports treating the following
blems of radiation measurement and dosimetry and subjects:
to recommend the most acceptable values and tech-
Approaches to the Dosimetry of Low-Dose Exposures to
niques for current use. Ionizing Radiation
The Commission’s recommendations are kept Assessment of Image Quality in Nuclear Medicine
under continual review in order to keep abreast of Bone Densitometry
the rapidly expanding uses of radiation. Doses for Cosmic Ray Exposure for Aircrew
The ICRU feels that it is the responsibility of Dose and Volume Specifications for Reporting Intracavi-
national organizations to introduce their own tary Therapy in Gynecology
detailed technical procedures for the development Dosimetry Systems for Radiation Protection
and maintenance of standards. However, it urges Elastic Scattering of Electrons and Positrons
that all countries adhere as closely as possible to Image Quality and Patient Exposure in CT
the internationally recommended basic concepts of Mammography------Assessment of Image Quality
Measurement Quality Assurance for Ionizing
radiation quantities and units.
Radiation
The Commission feels that its responsibility lies in Prescribing, Recording, and Reporting Conformal Photon
developing a system of quantities and units having Beam Therapy
the widest possible range of applicability. Situations Prescribing, Recording, and Reporting Proton Beam
may arise from time to time when an expedient Therapy
solution of a current problem may seem advis- Requirements for Radiological Sampling
able. Generally speaking, however, the Commission ROC Analysis
ª International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements 2005 AAPM Member Copy
PATIENT DOSIMETRY FOR X-RAYS USED IN MEDICAL IMAGING
In addition, the ICRU is evaluating the possibi- benefit to the ICRU program. Relations with these
lity of expanding its program to encompass non- other international bodies do not affect the basic
ionizing radiation, particularly the quantities and affiliation of the ICRU with the International
units aspects. Society of Radiology.
The Commission continually reviews radiation
science with the aim of identifying areas where the
development of guidance and recommendations can OPERATING FUNDS
make an important contribution.
In recent years, principal financial support has
been provided by the European Commission, the
THE ICRU’S RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER National Cancer Institute of the U.S. Department
ORGANIZATIONS of Health and Human Services and the International
Atomic Energy Agency. In addition, during the last
In addition to its close relationship with the ICRP, 10 years, financial support has been received from
the ICRU has developed relationships with other the following organizations:
organizations interested in the problems of radiation
quantities, units, and measurements. Since 1955, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
the ICRU has had an official relationship with the
Eastman Kodak Company
World Health Organization (WHO), whereby the
Electricité de France
ICRU is looked to for primary guidance in matters Fuji Medical Systems
of radiation units and measurements and, in turn, Hitachi, Ltd.
the WHO assists in the worldwide dissemination of International Radiation Protection Association
the Commission’s recommendations. In 1960, the International Society of Radiology
ICRU entered into consultative status with the Ion Beam Applications
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Italian Radiological Association
Commission has a formal relationship with the Uni- Japan Industries Association of Radiological Systems
ted Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Japanese Society of Radiological Technology
Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), whereby ICRU MDS Nordion
National Institute of Standards and Technology
observers are invited to attend annual UNSCEAR
Nederlandse Vereniging voor Radiologie
meetings. The Commission and the International
Philips Medical Systems, Incorporated
Organization for Standardization (ISO) informally Radiation Research Society
exchange notifications of meetings, and the ICRU Siemens
is formally designated for liaison with two of the Varian
ISO technical committees. The ICRU also corres-
ponds and exchanges final reports with the following In addition to the direct monetary support pro-
organizations: vided by these organizations, many organizations
Bureau International de Métrologie Légale provide indirect support for the Commission’s pro-
Bureau International des Poids et Mesures gram. This support is provided in many forms,
European Commission including, among others, subsidies for (1) the time
Council for International Organizations of Medical of individuals participating in ICRU activities,
Sciences (2) travel costs involved in ICRU meetings, and (3)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations meeting facilities and services.
International Committee of Photobiology In recognition of the fact that its work is made
International Council of Scientific Unions possible by the generous support provided by all of
International Electrotechnical Commission
the organizations supporting its program, the Com-
International Labor Office
mission expresses its deep appreciation.
International Organization for Medical Physics
International Radiation Protection Association
International Union of Pure and Applied Physics André Wambersie
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Chairman, ICRU
Organization Brussels, Belgium
The Commission has found its relationship with
all of these organizations fruitful and of substantial

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CONTENTS
PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
GLOSSARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2 VARIABILITY OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY AND RADIATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1 Causes of variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2.2 Typical magnitudes of variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2.1 Soils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2.2 Terrestrial vegetation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.2.3 Terrestrial animal tissues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.2.4 Components of aquatic ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.2.5 Background radiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3 GENERAL SAMPLING CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.1.1 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.1.2 Environmental context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.1.3 Inferences and populations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.1.4 Representativeness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.1.5 Overall sampling approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2 Methods of sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2.2 Sampling designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2.2.1 Judgmental sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2.2.2 Simple random sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2.2.3 Two-stage sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2.2.4 Stratified sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.2.2.5 Systematic sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.2.2.6 Cluster sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.2.2.7 Double sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.3 Number of replicate samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.4 Sample mass or volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.5 Compositing and pooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

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3.6 Practical sampling issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

3.7 Data analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.7.1 Below-detection-limit observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.8 Quality assurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4 ESTIMATING STATISTICAL QUANTITIES: MEAN, TOTAL, PROPORTION,

PERCENTILE, AND RATIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4.2 Population mean and total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4.2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4.2.2 Simple random sampling in practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.2.2.1 Estimation of the average baseline 14C level in vegetation . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.2.3 Example: 137Cs contained activity (inventory) in sediment of an estuary . . . . . . 39
4.2.4 Systematic sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.3 Proportion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.3.2 Simple random sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.3.3 Stratified sampling for proportions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
4.4 Estimation of a percentile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
4.5 Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
4.5.1 General principles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
4.5.2 Sampling considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
4.5.3 Comparison of unpaired and paired sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
4.5.4 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
4.5.5 Other considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
4.6 Other sampling schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.6.1 Two-stage sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.6.2 Double sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.6.3 Quadrat and line-transect sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.7 General comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
5 SAMPLING TO ESTIMATE SPATIAL PATTERN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5.1.1 Spatial structure: general comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5.1.2 Sampling objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
5.1.3 The sampling approach of Section 3 applied to spatial data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5.2 Examples of the sampling approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5.2.1 Mapping plutonium distribution over a region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5.2.2 Mapping using spatially integrated data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5.2.3 Estimating the scale of spatial variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
5.2.4 Identifying vulnerable land areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
5.3 Terminology and notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.1 Spatial random process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.2 Spatial trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.3 Periodicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.4 Spatial covariance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.5 Isotropy and anisotropy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.6 Stationarity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.3.7 Relationship between the semivariogram and the spatial correlation . . . . . . . . 54
5.3.8 Empirical variogram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.3.9 Modeling the empirical variogram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.4 Design- and model-based sampling methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

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5.5 Design-based sampling schemes for spatial data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

5.5.1 Random and stratified random sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5.5.2 Systematic grid sampling and geometric grid pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5.5.3 Transect sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5.5.4 Cluster sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5.5.5 Number of samples required . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.6 Spatial interpolation and prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.6.1 Non-stochastic interpolation methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.6.2 Trend surfaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.6.3 Geostatistical methods for spatial analysis and sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.6.4 Describing the small-scale spatial variation and measurement error . . . . . . . . 59
5.6.5 Predicting the spatial process at unobserved point locations: kriging . . . . . . . . 60
5.6.6 Predicting values for areas larger than the sample size: block kriging . . . . . . . 61
5.6.7 Other kriging methods: indicator kriging and co-kriging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.6.8 Use of the variogram to design a sampling strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.6.9 Number of samples required . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.6.10 Difficulties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.6.11 Examples of model-based analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
5.6.12 Prior knowledge and pilot studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
5.7 Locating hot spots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
5.7.1 Probability of detecting a hot spot of a specified size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
5.7.2 Estimating the probability that a hot spot exists when one is not detected . . . . . 63
5.7.3 Delineating the edges of a hot spot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5.7.4 Detecting hot particles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5.8 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
6 TEMPORAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL SAMPLING PROBLEMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
6.1.1 Types of studies with temporal or spatio-temporal sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
6.1.2 Time-series data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
6.1.3 Trend in a time series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
6.1.4 Periodicity in a time series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
6.1.5 Example of trend, seasonal, and random components of variation . . . . . . . . . . 67
6.2 Sampling issues and designs to assess temporal trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
6.2.1 Choice of sampling times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
6.2.2 Choice of sampling units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
6.2.3 Designs that combine independent and repeated sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
6.2.4 Other practical issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
6.3 Sampling issues and designs to detect impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.3.1 Before-After-Control-Impact assessment designs and extensions . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.4 Network design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.5 Examples of sampling to describe trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.5.1 Sampling fish from a lake . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.5.2 Food-chain monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.5.3 Trend and seasonality of 14C in seaweed, and variation in outdoor radon . . . . . 73
6.5.4 Whole-body monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
6.5.5 Long-term trend of radiocesium in milk after Chernobyl . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
6.5.6 Long-term temporal dependence of 7Be deposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
6.6 Examples of sampling for impact assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
6.6.1 Monitoring of a nuclear power station . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
6.6.2 Post-release trends of contamination levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
6.7 General comments about examples and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

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7 GENERAL SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
7.1 Variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
7.2 The meaning of statistical sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
7.3 The environmental context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
7.4 Representativeness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
7.5 Steps in developing a sampling design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
7.6 Sampling approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
7.6.1 Judgmental sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
7.6.2 Simple random sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
7.6.3 Stratified sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
7.6.4 Systematic sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.6.5 Other sampling designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.7 Calculation of statistical quantities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.8 Spatial and temporal context of environmental sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.9 Spatial sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.10 Temporal sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
7.11 Final comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
APPENDIX A 10,000 RANDOM DIGITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
APPENDIX B UPPER CRITICAL VALUES OF THE STUDENT’S t DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . 89
QUANTITIES AND SYMBOLS USED IN THIS REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

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PREFACE
The core mission of the ICRU is to develop a environmental radioactivity distribution sometimes
coherent system of quantities and units in the field make it difficult to infer the magnitude of variation
of ionizing radiation and to provide recommenda- from other, more commonly measured environ-
tions on how to measure these quantities. Since mental samples. The recognition of these problems
its creation in 1925, the ICRU has been involved by the Commission led to the initiation of the pre-
in the definition of quantities and units, in the sent ICRU report. Sound decision making should
review of laboratory measurement methods, giving be based on scientific information, which in turn
recommendations in radiation protection, imaging-, requires appropriate sampling designs as well as
therapy- and other medical applications. More accurate measurements and rigorously defined
recently, the ICRU recognized the need for general quantities and units.
guidance on optimum environmental sampling for As far as quantities and units are concerned, the
radionuclides because uncertainties associated with same ICRU committee already published a report
the sampling techniques are often far greater than recommending definitions of terms, concepts, quant-
measurement uncertainties. Important decisions ities and units to be used in radioecology (ICRU
on the management of radioactively contaminated Report 65, 2001). In addition, the ICRU made recom-
environments and the preparation for appropriate mendations on gamma-ray spectrometry meas-
response to major accidental releases of radio- urements of average environmental soil surface
activity depend on sound scientifically based data. contamination by radionuclides (ICRU Report 53,
Inadequate sampling designs in radioecology and 1994).
other environmental studies can greatly affect the We hope that the present report can help radio-
quality of scientific interpretation and, as a result, ecologists and other scientists involved in the
the proper application of such interpretation to study or monitoring of environmental radioactivity
decision making. to improve their ability to draw more credible infer-
Given the background of large natural variations ences and conclusions in these interesting fields
due to biological, geological and/or meteorological of endeavor.
conditions associated with environmental sampling
for radionuclides, the magnitude of uncertainties
needs to be estimated prior to determining sample Herwig Paretzke
size requirements for specific research or monitoring Paul DeLuca
objectives. However, the special characteristics of André Wambersie

Ó International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements 2006 AAPM Member Copy
GLOSSARY
Abiotic not of the biota, non-living components of the environment

Absorption movement of ions and water through a living membrane as a
result of metabolic processes, frequently against an activity
gradient
Accrete accumulate
Activity density the activity of a specified radionuclide per unit mass, volume or
area of a specified substance
Adaptive sampling when sampling units cluster together and are sparse or relatively
rare, an increased sampling frequency used when a sampling unit
is found
Adsorption attraction of ions or chemical compounds to the surface of a solid
Aggregated transfer coefficient calculated as the mass activity density (Bq kg1) per deposition
density (Bq m2). Developed to express the ultimate transfer from
soil to biota, through all operative processes. Can be soil to
animal, soil to plant, sediment to fish, etc. It will encompass or
aggregate many processes including food-chain transfers, root
uptake, soil adhesion, direct soil ingestion, etc.
Aliasing the masking of one effect by another, so neither can be estimated
separately
Aliquot a representative subsample from a larger sample
Anisotropy a condition where the spatial covariance pattern of a spatial
random process is different in at least one direction
Anthropogenic arising from human activity
Areal activity density activity density expressed in units of activity per unit area
Arithmetic average or mean value a measure of central tendency, calculated as the sum of the
observations divided by n, the number of observations
Autocorrelation a measure of the association between values of an attribute at
different places or times
Before-After-Control-Impact design design where data are collected at four combinations of sites and
times: affected and unaffected sites, each sampled before the
impact and after the impact
Benthic pertaining to or with the characteristics of the benthos; also, the
bottom region of a lake or sea
Bin a defined range of values for a variable
Bioavailability availability of a substance for plant root uptake or uptake from
the gastrointestinal tract of an animal
Biomass mass of living material, usually expressed as dry mass per unit
area
Biome a large region having similar types of vegetation and general
appearance
Biotic of flora and/or fauna (plants and animals)
Bioturbation perturbation or disturbance of sediments or soils by one or more
biological mechanisms
Block kriging a method to predict the average value of a spatial process over a
specified area. The area may be as large as the entire study area
or almost as small as a single point. The block kriging estimate is

an integral over the specified area
Change-point a change point is considered to be a location in space or time
where there is an abrupt change or discontinuity in the mean or
variance of the attribute of interest
Cluster sampling sampling where clusters of individuals are selected randomly and
all (or a random selection of) individuals within each cluster are
selected and measured. Cluster sampling is a convenient and
practical design if individuals naturally group within the
population
Coefficient of variation the sample standard deviation divided by the sample average
Concentration ratio the ratio of the activity density of a radionuclide in the receptor
compartment to that in the donor compartment
Confidence level pre-defined level of statistical probability in a confidence interval
Contained activity the total activity of a specified radionuclide contained in a
specified compartment
Continuous index process refers to an attribute that is spatially continuous, where in
principle it is possible to measure the attribute at any location
defined by coordinates (x,y) over the domain or area of interest
Correlation a measure of the linear relationship between two quantities
Correlogram a plot of the lagged correlation for a time series
Covariance a measure of the joint variation in two quantities
Cressie-Hawkins estimator a robust estimator of the variogram
Design-based sampling observations are based on random samples from population of
interest
Direction bin the range of values into which the observed directions between
sampling locations are grouped (in construction of variogram)
Distance bin the range of values into which the observed distances between
sampling locations are grouped (in construction of variogram)
Distribution coefficient the ratio of the mass activity density in the specified solid phase to
the volumetric activity density in the specified liquid phase at
equilibrium
Donor compartment a physical space from which material is transferred to a receptor
compartment
Double sampling double sampling involves measurement of one characteristic of a
population sample that can be mathematically related to the
primary characteristic of interest. This is usually done in cases
where it is difficult or expensive to measure large numbers of
samples for the primary attribute of interest, but where a related
characteristic can be feasibly measured in a large number of
samples
Error a statistical term used in this report to imply unavoidable random
variation and uncertainty. It is not used to imply a ‘mistake’
Feed transfer coefficient the mass or volumetric activity density in the receptor tissue of
product of an animal divided by the intake rate of the
radionuclide into the mouth by ingestion
Geographical information system (GIS) a system of computer programs/software designed to manipulate
spatially registered data
Geometric average or mean value a measure of central tendency, calculated from the logarithms of
the data
Geometric grid pattern for spatial sampling, the region is overlaid by a grid, sampling
locations are then identified on the grid by a geometric pattern
Geometric standard deviation a measure of dispersion about the geographic mean, calculated
from the logarithms of the data
Grain the size of the sampling unit

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GLOSSARY
Half time the time required for half of a substance to be lost from a
compartment
Home range the spatial territory over which an animal normally travels and
uses
Hot particle a radioactive particle of small dimension with a very high activity
density compared to the surroundings
Hot spot a hot spot might be defined as an area of significant dimension in
the context of the problem, where the activity density is perhaps
an order of magnitude or more higher than in nearby surrounding
areas
Impact assessment assessment of the effect, if any, on the quantity of interest
resulting from an event or activity
Independent design a design where new individual sampling units are measured at
each time point
Isopleth a contour of constant level, e.g., activity density in a spatial
context
Isotropy a spatial random process is said to be isotropic if its spatial
covariance properties do not depend on direction but only on the
distance separating sampling locations
Judgemental sampling members of the population are selected based on expert
knowledge, rather than probability-based sampling
Kriging a method of spatial interpolation based on the variogram
Line transect sampling a line transect is a straight line along which samples are taken,
the starting point and orientation of which will be chosen as part
of the sampling scheme. The number of samples to be collected
along the transect, and their spacing requires definition
Lognormal distribution a model for multiplicative random variation. The log of the
variable of interest is assumed to have a Normal (or Gaussian)
distribution
Markov random field model a stochastic model for a spatial random process
Measurement error the uncertainty in the measurement
Model-based sampling the sampling design and analysis are based on an assumed
stochastic model
Non-parametric estimator an estimator in which a specific distributional shape for the
population is not assumed
Northing, Southing, Easting, Westing refers to spatial coordinates as latitude and longitude
Nugget the nugget is the limiting value of the semivariance as the
distance approaches 0. The nugget captures spatial variability at
very small spatial scales (less than the separation between
observations) and also measurement error
Omnivorous feeding on both plant and animal material
Paired sampling pairs of sampling units are selected (e.g., soil and plant) from the
same locations
Panel design a design in which the same individual units are repeatedly
sampled
Percentile the qth percentile, is the value y such that the proportion of the
population below y is q
Periodicity periodicity is a feature most commonly associated with data
collected over time or space, and represents a recurring pattern,
that might reflect a biological growth cycle or a diurnal light
and/or temperature effect or a regular planting pattern
Phloem tissue of higher plants consisting of tubular bundles for the
purpose of conduction of food material towards the roots
Xylem complex tissue of plants comprising the woody portions of the
plant. Its serves primarily for transport of soluble food material
upward as well as for mechanical support
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Piscivorous feeding on fish

Plankton small organisms which are passively suspended in the water
column
Population mean the true but likely unknown value of the mean of the variable of
interest in the population
Population variance the true but likely unknown variance of the variable of interest in
the population
Power the power of a statistical hypothesis test is the probability of
correctly rejecting the null hypothesis
Proportion the fraction or percentage of the population exceeding a given
value
Punctual kriging kriging to estimate a value at a point that has not been sampled
Putative cause the hypothesised cause for a change
Quadrat sampling a quadrat is a well-defined area within which one or more
samples are taken; it is usually square or rectangular in shape,
with fixed dimensions the position and orientation of the quadrat
will be chosen as part of the sampling scheme
Random sampling sampling such that each population unit has the same probability
of being selected for sampling and measurement
Random spatial process a random spatial process describes values of an attribute and how
they vary across the spatial domain. The locations at which the
attribute of interest is measured are defined by a series of spatial
coordinates
Range the range is the distance on the horizontal axis at which the semi-
variance value reaches the sill value
Receptor compartment a physical space to which material is transferred from a donor
compartment
Relatedness the existence or otherwise of a relationship between two
quantities or the same quantity in time or space
Representativeness the collection of samples should provide a total sample that is
representative of all samples that could be taken and thus
provides a true reflection of the population. A representative
sample should reflect the population not only in terms of the
attribute of interest, but also in terms of any incidental factors
that affect the attribute of interest
Resuspension the physical transport of soil particles into the air by wind or
other physical disturbance, or of bottom sediment particles into
suspension by water currents or other physical disturbance
Rotating-panel design individuals are repeatedly measured a set number of times, then
replaced by new randomly chosen individuals. The newly chosen
individuals are also measured repeatedly for the appropriate
number of times
Sample depending on the context in which used, i.e., the collective sense
or the individual sense, the sample refers either to the group of
specimens taken for individual measurement; or to an individual
specimen or sampling unit
Sample mean or average the observed arithmetic mean or average from a set of
observations
Sample standard deviation square root of sample variance
Sampling error, random sampling error square root of the sampling variance
Sampling fraction the proportion of the population included in the sample
Sampling intensity refers to the number or frequency of sampling units
Sample variance a measure of the variability in a sample estimate due to variation
in the population
Semivariance a measure of spatial association among pairs of observations
separated by a certain distance (and possibly direction).
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GLOSSARY
The vertical axis of the variogram, that is a measure of the spatial

relatedness
Semivariogram a plot of semivariance against lag to describe the spatial
covariance structure of a random spatial process
Senescence the process of ageing
Sestonic pertaining to particulate matter suspended in the water column.
It may be composed of organic (living or dead) and/or inorganic
material
Sill the sill is the horizontal asymptote of the variogram, if it exists,
and represents the overall variance of the random process
Simple random sampling where each sampling unit in the population has, in theory, an
equal probability of being included in the sample
Sorption general term for the processes of adsorption, absorption, and
persorption
Spatial covariance the values of the attribute of interest of a spatial random process
at two locations are not generally independent. Values at two
places nearby are likely to be more similar than values at two
places further apart. Thus one can define the spatial covariance
Cov(h) of the random process in general as a function of distance
(h) separating the sampling locations and sometimes also
direction
Spatial lattice process the attribute is not continuous through space; it exists and can be
measured only at specific locations
Spatial trend a systematic change in the mean value of the attribute over the
area of interest. It is generally assumed that trend is a regional
property and reflects change in the mean values of the attribute
Specific activity total radioactivity of a given isotope per unit mass of the element
Stationarity a stationary random spatial process, loosely defined, is a spatial
process that appears the same at all locations. There is no spatial
trend, no spatial periodicity, and the spatial covariance is the
same at all locations
Stochastic distribution a random distribution for the values of an attribute in the
population
Stratified random sampling the population is divided into strata, each of which is likely to be
internally more homogeneous than across the entire population.
A simple random sample is used to estimate the properties of each
stratum. Usually, the proportion of sample observations taken in
each stratum is similar to the stratum proportion of the
population, but this is not a requirement
Supplemented-panel design most of the individuals are repeatedly measured at all times.
A supplemental independent sample is randomly chosen and
measured once. A new supplemental sample is randomly chosen
at each time point
Surficial pertaining to a solid surface, e.g., surficial contamination
Systematic grid sampling systematic grid sampling requires that the region is considered as
being overlaid by a grid (rectangular or otherwise), and sampling
locations are at gridline intersections at fixed distance apart in
each of the two directions
Systematic sampling assume there are N (¼ nk) units in the population. Then to sample
n units, a unit is selected for sampling at random. Then,
subsequent samples are taken at every k units.
t factor or t-value the t-factor is a multiple which is read from statistical tables for
the t-distribution. The numerical value is defined by the required
confidence (typically 95 %) and by the ‘degrees of freedom’, which
is determined by the sample size

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Tailings the waste remaining after a physical and/or chemical process

used to extract a desired material from natural ore
t-distribution the Student t-distribution
Time series observations are naturally ordered through time
Transect sampling sampling along a transect, usually a straight line
Transpiration the loss of water from plants to the atmosphere
Trend the long term pattern in mean or average level
Two-stage sampling this design involves definition of primary units, some fraction of
which is selected randomly, then the selected primary units are
sub-divided and a fraction of the sub-units are selected randomly.
At each stage, the units in the design may be sub-divided and
randomly selected
Universal kriging kriging which includes a spatial trend
Variance of estimated mean the square of the sample standard deviation divided by the square
root of the number of samples used to compute the mean
Variogram a plot of the semivariance as a function of distance that
summarises how spatial association changes with distance or
direction
Volumetric activity density the activity of a radionuclide per unit volume of a liquid or solid
Weighted average the average of a series of observations, where each observation is
individually weighted relative to its measurement error or other
attribute

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ABSTRACT
This report provides a conceptual guide for design- as the means, proportions, or ratios of two
ing statistically based sampling approaches for the quantities. Sampling to estimate spatial patterns,
analysis of radionuclides in environmental media temporal trends, and spatio-temporal variations is
such as soil, sediment, water, plants, aquatic organ- briefly described. This report is also a resource to
isms and animals. Some causes and examples of the helpful and relevant statistics literature. It does not
magnitude of the observed sampling variability are attempt to provide step-by-step guidelines for
provided. General concepts and principles of statist- designing specific sampling protocols, nor does it
ical sampling are briefly described in a qualitative provide details for the analysis of data resulting
manner, including standard sampling designs with from sampling programs. For these tasks, advice,
their random and systematic errors. This is followed recommendations and recipes are found in the liter-
by a presentation of equations and practical ature cited.
examples for estimating statistical quantities such

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The present report provides recommendations for percentiles, inventories, and totals are discussed in
designing statistically based sampling approaches Section 4. These discussions are based on statistical
for analysis of radionuclide concentrations in envir- principles and mathematical equations, and are
onmental media such as soil, sediments, water, illustrated with actual case studies.
plants, aquatic organisms and animals. Some causes The next topic in Section 5 deals with sampling
and examples of sampling variability are discussed. to estimate spatial pattern, where both design-based
The introduction is followed in Section 2 with a and model-based sampling schemes are described.
discussion of the causes and typical magnitudes Methods of locating ‘hot spots’ i.e., local areas of
of variability in radionuclide activity densities significantly elevated activity density compared
observed from field sampling. Such information is to the surrounding areas are presented. The use
normally a prerequisite to the proper development of geographic information systems (GIS) for the
of a sampling design that is likely to adequately determination of spatial pattern and development
answer the research or monitoring question at hand. of maps is described.
Section 3 discusses statistical concepts and The final topic presented in Section 6 is sampling
principles for sampling. The presentation of these to estimate temporal trends or patterns to evaluate
concepts and principles is based on the need to their impact. Combined with the previous one, this
understand their basis and to still find a reasonable section describes the spatio-temporal data, i.e., the
balance between purely ideal statistical considera- analysis of how spatial distribution patterns of
tions and the ever-present practical constraints radionuclides might change over time. A general
of time and resource availability. Which sampling summary is provided in Section 7. Various appendi-
design might be the most appropriate, and how ces, a list of quantities and units, and a glossary of
many individual replicate samples might be needed specialized terms are also provided at the end of
to answer a specific question or to test a given hypo- the report.
thesis, are the type of questions dealt with in this The goal of this report is to provide a broader
section of the report. and improved conceptual framework for increasing
Practical approaches to the estimation of stat- the quality and applicability of the science of
istical quantities such as averages, proportions, radioecology.

1 INTRODUCTION
There has been increasing recognition that numer- radionuclides can be measured without direct soil
ous investigations in radioecology, especially those sampling when photon emissions can be measured
involving both field sampling and laboratory meas- with transportable equipment such as in situ ger-
urements, have not paid adequate attention to the manium detectors (ICRU, 1994). Activity densities
problem of obtaining a sufficient number of repres- (i.e., concentrations) for certain hard-to-measure
entative, unbiased samples. This problem can be radionuclides can be inferred quite accurately from
most serious when variability among independent measurements of different, more easily detectable
samples is large. Poor sampling designs, and/or radionuclides. Magnitudes of radionuclide variabil-
inadequate sampling replication can easily lead to ity cannot necessarily be estimated from those of
erroneous or at least highly uncertain inferences or other contaminants
conclusions, despite laboratory measurements that Two other ICRU reports are useful companion
may be highly accurate. It is usually recognized documents to the present report. ICRU Report 65
that the variability exhibited among individual rep- (ICRU, 2001), prepared by the same committee, rig-
licate samples affects the validity of the scientific orously describes quantities, units, and terms used
statements. However, the fact that field sampling in radioecology, and provides a glossary of terms
variability is often much larger than the variability that is more extensive than the glossary contained
resulting from measurement uncertainty is not herein. ICRU Report 53 (ICRU, 1994) outlines
always appreciated. in detail a sampling method unique to gamma-
Much has been written about field sampling for emitting radionuclides, namely in situ gamma-ray
measurement of chemical contaminants and other spectrometry. This technique allows rapid evalua-
attributes of environmental media (Keith, 1996). tion of areal activity densities of such radionuclides.
The present report represents an attempt to apply The present report is intended as a conceptual
the basic concepts and conceptual framework of this guide for researchers when they are first confronted
large body of literature to commonly encountered with the need to design studies in radioecology and
questions concerning the distribution and transport environmental radioactivity. This document can also
of radionuclides in the environment. In many, if not be useful to those involved in the design of routine
most cases sampling for radionuclides in environ- environmental monitoring programs around nuclear
mental media such as air, water, soil, and biological facilities and for those responding to accidental
tissues can be approached in much the same way releases of radioactivity. The present document is
as for other contaminants. However, there are situ- not intended as a step-by-step protocol for the design
ations in which sampling problems for radionucli- or conduct of any particular kind of study or monit-
des in the environment are different, and possibly oring program, because of the almost infinite variety
unique. For example, the conditions inherent in of scenarios and questions which can arise, and the
specific accidents (e.g., Chernobyl), or in historical abundance of prescriptive texts on the subject of
activities (e.g., atmospheric nuclear testing) can sampling. Rather, this report is intended to provide
greatly influence the patterns and magnitude of a general appreciation for, and a basic approach to,
spatial heterogeneity of deposition and subsequent the problems of statistical sampling. It is not inten-
transport of the radioactive contaminants. ‘Hot’ par- ded as a comprehensive guide for the analysis of
ticles, i.e., particles with very high activity density, data resulting from a particular sampling program.
may be encountered for some radionuclides (e.g., A general overview of some common sampling
239
Pu), which can cause extreme local spatial vari- designs and examples of implementation are pro-
ability. Chemical contaminants normally require vided, along with a guide to some of the more
direct soil sampling and analysis, whereas certain detailed literature.

2 VARIABILITY OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY

AND RADIATION
2.1 CAUSES OF VARIATION least two fundamental causes; namely, (1) non-
homogeneous primary deposition, and (2) redistribu-
Experience has demonstrated that soil or sediment
tion of contaminated particles, or contamination in
samples taken side-by-side, from different parts of
other forms, that occurs sometime after the material
the same plant, or from different animals in the
is deposited. In most cases, soil is contaminated
same environment, usually exhibit at least slightly
through the deposition of airborne material. Such
different activity densities of a given radionuclide.
deposition occurs through both wet (precipitation-
Sometimes, these differences are quite large, ran-
associated) and dry (particle settling, impaction,
ging up to an order of magnitude or more. If a few
electrostatic, etc.) deposition processes. These pro-
dozen or so individual replicate samples are collected
cesses are extremely complex, and subject to modi-
randomly from a given area and then analyzed with
fication by many physical variables. Deposition onto
high accuracy, a distribution of values will always
soil can vary on a small scale, for example, depend-
result. This distribution will provide an estimate of
ing on whether the soil is located under a plant
the variability inherent in the population of samples
canopy or in an open field; or on a larger scale,
that, theoretically, could be taken. Whether or not
for instance, depending on whether a localized thun-
this distribution is truly reflective of the population
derstorm happens to intersect a plume of airborne
depends on the representativeness of the sampling,
contamination at a particular time and place.
as well as the adequacy of the numbers of individual
Sediments in aquatic environments normally
samples or specimens taken and analyzed. So long
receive contamination from liquid releases to
as the sampling design, as well as the number of
streams, lakes, or marine environments. Primary
replicate samples, is adequate to represent the
deposition of a radionuclide onto an underwater
actual distribution inherent within the population,
sediment surface can occur through physical settling
it is useful to examine some possible causes of this
of particulate matter or through direct chemical
inherent variability.
sorption from the water. Water-to-sediment depos-
There are several causes of variability in replic-
ition therefore depends on physical conditions, such
ated measurements of radionuclides in field
as water turbulence, contact time, and surface sedi-
samples. These include (1) laboratory uncertainties
ment topography, and on the chemical nature and
such as statistical counting variation, geometrical
physical form of the contaminant in the water col-
differences in samples and containers, sample
umn and of the sediment surfaces with which the
weighing and moisture content effects, chemical pro-
contaminants interact. Such variables tend to be
cedure variations, and cross-contamination; (2) vari-
spatially complex, thus giving rise to heterogeneous
ations in performance of the actual field-sampling
initial deposition patterns.
protocol; and (3) true spatial, temporal, or individual
Once soil or sediment particles have been con-
organism variations in the individual samples col-
taminated through deposition or physical/chemical
lected for analysis. It is the latter type of variability
sorption, additional spatial heterogeneity may sub-
that is considered natural. Natural variability is the
sequently result from redistribution of the host par-
result of place-to-place, time-to-time, and individual-
ticles. Physical resuspension of contaminated soil
to-individual differences in one or more of the many
particles occurs to widely varying degrees, depend-
processes that affect radionuclide activity densities
ing on wind, plant cover, topography, soil moisture
in environmental media. In many if not most cases,
content, and many other variables. Such resuspen-
natural variability, as reflected by replicate sam-
ded material will re-deposit, sooner or later, again
pling, dominates over the variability that arises
depending on many physical and meteorological
from errors in taking and analyzing samples.
variables. Both resuspension and subsequent rede-
Variability of anthropogenic radionuclide activity
position are inherently complex in space and time,
densities in soils and sediments is produced by at
International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements 2006 AAPM Member Copy
causing further spatial heterogeneity. Somewhat the ingestion pathway is considered, the rate at
different processes operate for 3H and 14C, such as which radionuclides enter the body is proportional
isotopic exchange, evaporation, respiration, etc., and to the feeding rate, the activity density of the radio-
for very soluble radionuclides such as 36Cl and 129I, nuclide in the food consumed, and the fraction of
such as solution transport. However, these processes the ingested material that is assimilated from the
can also be complex and variable in time and space. gut into the body. The latter factor is influenced by
In aquatic ecosystems, resuspension of near-surface the bioavailability, or solubility, of the radionuclide
sediments by water currents, followed by redepos- in the gut, as well as by age- and species-specific
ition in more quiescent areas has a similar effect absorption capability. Each of these quantities var-
in producing additional spatial heterogeneity of ies, not only between individual animals, but even
contaminants associated with sediment particles. from day-to-day within a single individual. It is
Bioturbation, i.e., the physical mixing of soils and rather obvious that no two individuals are exactly
sediments by living organisms, operates in both alike. Food preferences, amounts eaten, and physi-
aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to further affect ology vary between individuals. Just as the rate at
radionuclide distribution and variability. which radionuclides enter the body varies, the rate
Contamination of terrestrial vegetation with at which the material is excreted varies. All of
radionuclides involves a number of mechanisms, these processes, therefore, explain at least part of
including direct foliar deposition from the air, resus- the observation that tissues analyzed from different
pension of material from the soil surface by wind and individual animals will exhibit variability.
rain, and uptake from the soil by roots or through Animal movements can create some interesting
the cuticle from air. In the case of 14C, incorporation and often unpredictable patterns of variability. For
by photosynthesis is the dominant and controlling example, such movements can lead to (1) extremely
mechanism. Once radionuclides are deposited on different activity densities between individuals,
foliage surfaces, the material may be absorbed into depending on where they have happened to forage
the plant tissues, tightly sorbed to the surface, or lost recently, or (2) to more similar activity densities as a
by weathering processes. Radionuclides absorbed consequence of foraging across a variety of locations
from the soil by root uptake or from the air by direct and food items, thus averaging out or reducing
sorption may be translocated to different parts the effect of extreme intakes. The physical and bio-
of the plant, depending on their mobility in the logical half times of the radionuclide in question can
phloem-xylem streams. Radioactivity in or on foliage influence which situation is more likely. The concept
may be returned to the soil through leaf fall of half time is explained on page 15 of ICRU Report
(senescence) and subsequent decay. In the case of 65 as the time required for half of the initial activity
3
H in the form of water, direct loss from plant to be lost (ICRU, 2001). For short-lived (referring to
tissues to the atmosphere by transpiration is import- the effective half time of radionuclides in animals)
ant. All the above processes are extremely complex, materials, the first scenario is more likely; for
and vary with time, weather, soil characteristics, longer-lived materials, the second is more likely. In
and the nature of the plants involved. These pro- general, one would expect the variability of radio-
cesses, combined with the heterogeneous distribu- nuclide activity densities in mobile animals to be
tion of radioactivity in soil, result in substantial greater in areas characterized by spatially hetero-
spatial variation in radionuclide activity densities geneous deposition than in animals using areas
measured in foliage. These variations may be that are more homogeneous in terms of radionuclide
associated with the species of plant, the particular deposition. In addition, areas characterized by
tissue sampled, or phenological stage of the plant. complex terrain, soil, and vegetation types might
However, the same tissues from the same species, harbor animals that could display considerable vari-
sampled from a small area at the same time, will still ability in radionuclide activity densities resulting
exhibit some degree of variation in the content from selective use of such a spatially heterogeneous
of radionuclides. environment. Of course, the actual movement and
Like terrestrial plants, terrestrial animals use patterns through time of individual animals,
accumulate radionuclides by a variety of complex such as fidelity to certain areas, influence variability
processes; however, the mechanisms are fundament- as well.
ally different. Furthermore, most animals are quite Aquatic plants and animals are subject to most of
mobile. Such differences can have important the same processes as their terrestrial counterparts.
implications for variation in radionuclide activity For example, direct foliar deposition, sorption, root
densities in animal tissues. Inhalation and ingestion uptake, and losses from weathering or senescence by
are the primary mechanisms by which radionuclides aquatic macrophytes occur in ways comparable to
enter the body of most terrestrial animals. If only those experienced by their terrestrial counterparts.
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VARIABILITY OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY AND RADIATION
Food habits, gut absorption, excretory loss, and data, the geometric average provides an estimate of
spatial movements of animals such as fish are the most probable value, and the value itself is less
conceptually similar to processes that operate in influenced by a few unusually large values than is
terrestrial animals. However, other processes are the simple arithmetic average of the data. As a res-
unique to aquatic biota. Examples would include ult, the arithmetic average, y, is a larger number
uptake directly from water, periphyton growth on than is the geometric average. Another way to
the surfaces of macrophytes that can accumulate express data variability is the range, calculated as
certain radionuclides very efficiently, direct uptake the difference between the maximum and minimum
through gills of fish, etc. These processes are also observed values, and sometimes as the ratio of max-
variable and complex, and lead to considerable vari- imum to minimum observed values. For normal dis-
ation in the activity densities of radionuclides in tributions, the expected range can be estimated from
aquatic organisms. the standard deviation and sample size (Snedecor
In summary, natural variability in radionuclide and Cochran, 1961). The present report emphasizes
activity densities in replicated samples of soil, use of the coefficient of variation, Cvar, mainly
vegetation, animal tissues, and other media can because most published data sets provide averages
always be expected. This variability is caused by and standard deviations, irrespective of the data
ever-present variations in the processes that control distribution, and because the coefficient of variation
radionuclide transport in the environment. Natural is the most common measure of relative variability.
variability is usually, though not always, the Observed data sets typically exhibit variability
dominant source of uncertainty in the observed that arises from several sources (Livens and
concentrations of radionuclides in environmental Quarmby, 1988), including sampling and measure-
samples. ment uncertainty, as well as natural, inherent
variability, as discussed in Section 2.1. Unless the
researcher designs the sampling and measurement
2.2 TYPICAL MAGNITUDES OF VARIATION protocol in a manner allowing these variance com-
ponents to be partitioned (e.g., see Connor et al.,
In this section, selected examples of observed vari-
1997), it is not ordinarily possible to ascribe observed
ability in radionuclide concentrations from field
variability to any particular source (or sources).
studies are discussed. The selection of examples is
In the literature cited in this section, the variance
thought to be reasonably characteristic of many
partitioning was seldom quantitatively revealed,
data sets that could be cited. However, certain radio-
although in nearly all cases the dominant source of
nuclides not discussed here, such as 3H, 14C, 36Cl,
uncertainty appeared to be associated with inherent
and 129I, are affected by somewhat different pro-
variations resulting from spatial or individual
cesses and may exhibit different degrees of vari-
organism variability. For example, in a study on
ation. In this section, the measure of relative
radionuclide concentrations in native plants in
variability chosen for illustration is the coefficient
Colorado, USA, Remmenga and Whicker (1967)
of variation (Cvar), which is defined as the sample
found that laboratory analysis variances caused by
standard deviation (s) divided by the observed aver-
aliquoting (sub-sampling of individual samples)
age (
y). This measure of relative variation is the most
and activity counting averaged <19 % of the field
commonly expressed statistic for this purpose in the
sampling variances. In a study of Hg and 137Cs in
literature, and it provides a general impression of
sediments, analysis replication variance was <1 % of
the width of the distribution relative to the average
spatial sampling variances (Connor et al., 1997).
value. A different formula has been used to compute
Nyhan et al. (1983) found that aliquoting variances
the relative variation for log-normally distributed
of 137Cs in soils at the Trinity Site in New Mexico,
data (Gilbert, 1987); however, in the present report
USA, averaged about 17 % of the field sampling
it was usually not feasible to determine the shape of
variances, while counting variances were only
data distributions from the papers referenced. It
about 1 % of the field sampling variances.
should be noted, however, that it is very common in
radioecology to observe log-normally distributed
2.2.1 Soils
data. A log-normal distribution represents the case
where the logarithms of the values are normally Selected examples of ranges of coefficient of vari-
distributed. ation values observed for radionuclide activity dens-
Alternative expressions for the central tendency ities [see ICRU (2001) for definitions of quantities
and relative variability of log-normal distributions and units] in soil samples are shown in Table 2.1 for
are, respectively, the geometric average and geomet- a number of radionuclides and environmental set-
ric standard deviation. For log-normally distributed tings. The areas (m2) within which sampling was
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Table 2.1. Selected coefficients of variation (Cvar ¼ the sample standard deviation/observed mean) observed for
radionuclide activity densities among soil samples from within relatively small sampling plots.
Radionuclide Description of study area Plot area (m2) Within plot Cvar Reference
241
Am Desert, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, USA 0.4 0.09–0.79a Gilbert and Doctor (1985)
241
Am Grassland, Rocky Flats, Colorado, USA 104 0.13–1.16b Ibrahim et al. (1996)
137
Cs Canyon, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA <104 0.06–0.14 Nyhan et al. (1983)
137
Cs Trinity Site New Mexico <104 0.38–0.51 Nyhan et al. (1983)
137
Cs Shrub-heath, Ireland 3.6 · 103 0.36–0.51 McGee et al. (1995)
210
Pb, 210Po Sagebrush steppe, Wyoming, USA 104 0.38–0.56 Ibrahim and Whicker (1992)
210
Pb, 210Po U mill tailings, Wyoming 104 0.47–1.74 Ibrahim and Whicker (1992)
239,240
Pu Grassland, Rocky Flats, Colorado 104 0.25–1.38b Ibrahim et al. (1996)
226
Ra Properties, Grand Junction, Colorado, USA 15–270 0.66–1.53c Williams et al. (1989)
226
Ra Properties, Grand Junction, Colorado 15–270 0.08–0.29d Williams et al. (1989)
238
U, 230Th Sagebrush steppe, Wyoming 104 0.36–0.50 Ibrahim and Whicker (1992)
238
U, 230Th U mill tailings, Wyoming 104 0.40–0.75 Ibrahim and Whicker (1992)
a
Cvar decreased with aliquot mass.
b
Cvar increased with depth of sample.
c
Individual samples.
d
20-sample composites.
Figure 2.1. Observed coefficients of variation (Cvar) for 241Am in Nevada Test Site, USA, soil samples as a function of aliquot mass
analyzed (redrawn from data in Gilbert and Doctor, 1985). The negative power function, Cvar ¼ 0.83 aliquot mass in g0.46, fitted to the
data is shown as the solid line.
conducted are also shown, as plot size may have an USA, was noted by Williams et al. (1989), who
effect on the degree of spatial heterogeneity. In found that Cvar values were reduced by compositing
the study by Gilbert and Doctor (1985), within- individual samples, thus effectively reducing the
plot Cvar values ranged from 0.09 to 0.79, however, effect of spatial heterogeneity. A similar finding
the coefficient of variation was clearly a function was observed for 137Cs in soils from the Trinity
of the mass of the aliquot (Figure 2.1). In this par- Site in New Mexico, where aliquots of 25 cm3 pro-
ticular case, the inverse power function provided a duced a coefficient of variation of 0.64, but aliquots
reasonable fit to the data. This trend was apparently of 12,500 cm3 yielded a value of 0.17 (Nyhan et al.,
due to substantial micro-heterogeneity of 241Am 1983).
within soil samples, which could be effectively In another study, Ibrahim et al. (1996) presented
averaged out by analyzing larger aliquots. A similar data showing that the coefficients of variation of
trend for coefficients of variation of 226Ra in soil 241
Am and 239,240Pu activity densities in soil samples
from residential areas in Grand Junction, Colorado, near Rocky Flats, Colorado, USA, varied from about
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Figure 2.2. Observed coefficients of variation for 239,240Pu and 241Am in soil samples from Rocky Flats, Colorado, USA, as a function of
depth into the soil (redrawn from data in Ibrahim et al., 1996).
0.1 to 1.4, but the values increased linearly with biome that had no history of disturbance. Although
depth into the soil (Figure 2.2). In this case, the all sampling and analytical methods were compar-
implication is that the small-scale (375 cm2) spatial able, it was clear that spatial heterogeneity was
heterogeneity increases with depth into the soil. The greater on the sites contaminated with mill tailings.
cause of this is not certain, but it is possibly due In general, this result is intuitive, because anthro-
to the effect of soil cracking in dry periods and old pogenic contamination is likely to be spread and
root channels, both of which may allow contamin- redistributed by complex processes. Processes that
ated soil particles near the soil surface to percolate distribute natural substances are equally complex,
to greater depths in a spatially complex pattern but such processes have operated over time periods
that varies as a function of depth (Higley, 1994). much longer than recorded human history, and per-
Another factor that may have contributed to the haps this might be expected to produce sufficient
higher coefficients of variation at depth might material mixing to reduce spatial heterogeneity.
have been lower activity concentrations and higher One could expect local exceptions to this generality,
analytical uncertainty. However, these uncertain- for example in the obvious case of defined bodies of
ties are still regarded as small in comparison to uranium or thorium ore.
sampling variations because even the lowest activity Some work illustrates that the manner in which
samples used to construct Figure 2.2 contained activity density is measured in soil can affect
>50 times the analytical detection limit. McGee sample-to-sample variability. For example, 137Cs
et al. (1995) also found that Cvar values for 137Cs mass activity density (Bq kg1) in alpine and mont-
concentration in soil horizons tended to increase ane soils in Colorado, USA, was shown by Ulsh et al.
with depth from 0.34 at 0–5 cm to 0.64 at 20–40 cm. (2000) to have higher Cvar values (0.56–0.60) than
Another possibility contributing to such observa- areal activity density (Bq m2) measurements in
tions is cross-contamination at depth, resulting the same sampling locations (the latter Cvar values
from higher activity density particles near the were 0.40–0.41). It was apparent in this study that
surface being physically displaced to greater depths soil organic matter and dry bulk densities were
by the sampling procedure. sufficiently variable among samples to cause the
Table 2.1 also cites data from Ibrahim and increased variability in the mass activity density
Whicker (1992), which indicate that mining/milling measurements.
disturbances can affect the spatial heterogeneity
of natural uranium and thorium in soils. In this
2.2.2 Terrestrial vegetation
study, 238U and 230Th were measured in Wyoming,
USA, soils contaminated with uranium mill Selected examples of observed variation in radio-
tailings, and in nearby soils of the sagebrush steppe nuclide concentrations in vegetation samples are
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Table 2.2. Coefficients of variation (Cvar) observed for radionuclide activity densities in terrestrial vegetation samples.
Radio-nuclide Location Plant type Sampling plot Within plot Cvar Reference
area (m2)
137
Cs Colorado, USA Shrubs 465 0.13–0.16 Remmenga and Whicker (1967)
137
Cs Ireland Calluna vulgaris 3.6 · 103 0.12 McGee et al. (1995)
Ireland Juncus squarrosus 3.6 · 103 0.20
Total g a Colorado Trees 465 0.10 Remmenga and Whicker (1967)
Colorado Shrubs 465 0.13
Colorado Herbs 465 0.23
Colorado Grasses 465 0.41
239,240
Pu Rocky flats, Colorado, USA Lichens 104 0.52–1.26b Thomas and Ibrahim (1995)
Background, Colorado Lichens 4 · 104 0.16c
210
Pb, 210Po Wyoming, USA Herbs 104 0.81–1.15d Ibrahim and Whicker (1992)
0.52–0.59e
226
Ra Wyoming Herbs 104 1.04d
0.63e
238
U, 230Th Wyoming Herbs 104 1.09–1.96d
0.86–1.14e
95
Zr Colorado Shrubs 465 0.13–0.46 Remmenga and Whicker (1967)
137
Cs Great Britain Mushrooms Not reported 0.31–1.79 Barnett et al. (1999)
a
Total g activity due mainly to radionuclides from global fallout (137Cs, 95Zr, 144
Ce, etc.).
b
Mainly contamination from on-site releases of 239,240Pu.
c
Site in northern Colorado affected only by global fallout.
d
Exposed-tailings site at a uranium mill.
e
Natural area unaffected by uranium mill.
shown in Table 2.2. Location and sampling plot be expected to have more spatially extensive root
areas are shown because these factors are likely systems than individual grass plants, and this
to affect the observed variability. As noted earlier, might compensate to some extent for spatial
however, the sources of variability are not clear heterogeneity in soil concentrations. On the other
because most studies were not designed with hand, the radionuclides contributing to the activity
variance partitioning as a specific goal. Therefore, observed in plants measured by Remmenga and
many observations from reviews of the literature Whicker are not taken up from the soil readily;
are necessarily more anecdotal than analytical. therefore, the root uptake pathway was not likely
Readers specifically interested in variance parti- as important as aerial-contamination mechanisms.
tioning in soil to plant transfers of radionuclides Another speculation, is that grasses, being closer
are referred to Sheppard and Evenden (1990, 1997) to the ground, might be more affected by local
and Sheppard et al. (1998). variations in resuspension and rainsplash of con-
One observation that can be made from the data taminated soil particles than the vegetation existing
in Table 2.2 is that plant species or vegetation type at greater above-ground heights.
categories can show differences in observed coeffi- Vegetation coefficients of variation for 239,240Pu
cients of variation. For example, the study in at Rocky Flats, Colorado, USA, and for naturally
Ireland by McGee et al. (1995) suggests that Juncus occurring radionuclides near a uranium mill in
squarrosus exhibits higher variability than Calluna Wyoming, USA, indicate greater variability for
vulgaris. The basic reasons for the apparent dif- locally contaminated sites than for ‘background’
ference between these species were not clear; reference sites (Table 2.2). This probably relates to
however, it was noted that the variability in these generally higher variability in soils from the same
plants was somewhat less than the variability sites, as illustrated for 238U and 230Th in Table 2.1.
among the individual soil samples representative In the case of 239,240Pu in vegetation, the relatively
of the sites used for vegetation sampling. Data on low Cvar (0.16) in background locations affected only
gross gamma radioactivity (primarily from 137Cs, by global fallout might be expected on the basis that
95
Zr, and 144Ce, etc.) in various vegetation categories such fallout occurred over a period of many years
was found to be considerably more variable for and was composed of very small particles depositing
grasses than for shrubs and trees (Remmenga and fairly uniformly over areas on the order of hectares
Whicker, 1967). Again, the actual causes for these (104 m2). In contrast, the coefficients of variation
differences are not clear. One might speculate, for vegetation taken near local sources of 239,240Pu
however, that trees and shrubs in general would contamination were much larger (0.52–1.26),
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possibly because of the more likely presence of The data for 239,240Pu in arthropods and small
relatively ‘hot’ particles (McDowell and Whicker, mammals suggest considerably more variability
1978). than that of the more soluble radionuclides in deer
The data in Table 2.2 suggest that vegetation tissues. This is interesting, as the sampling area for
coefficients of variation tend to be larger for the the arthropods and small mammals was over four
heavier elements than for fission products, although orders of magnitude less than the sampling area for
much more data would need to be examined to deer. However, the deer were exposed to diffusely
make such a generalization. The data reviewed also distributed global fallout deposition, while the
show a tendency for vegetation to be less variable arthropods and small mammals were collected
than soil in most, but not all, cases. from Rocky Flats, Colorado, USA, a small area that
was locally contaminated from industrial releases
of plutonium. The observation of high variability of
2.2.3 Terrestrial animal tissues
plutonium in arthropods probably reflects the
Selected coefficients of variation are shown for a few extremely heterogeneous distribution of plutonium
fission product radionuclides in deer and cows, and in soil at Rocky Flats (Table 2.1) and the strong
for plutonium in arthropods and small mammal tis- association between soil and arthropods (Bly and
sues in Table 2.3. The values range from as low as Whicker, 1979). Most of the plutonium measured
0.07 for 137Cs in mule deer muscle to as high as 5.9 in arthropods was probably surficial and not incor-
for 239,240Pu in small mammal muscle tissue. The porated into the tissues, which could explain the
studies on mule deer suggest differences among strong association with soil in the plots sampled.
tissues for a given radionuclide, for example, 137Cs Reasons for the extreme variability observed for
239,240
in liver had a Cvar of 0.66, while the value was only Pu in small mammal tissues are probably
in the range of 0.07–0.12 for muscle from the same numerous. Differing habits of the three rodent
animal (Whicker et al., 1965a, 1967b). Values of species examined (Little et al., 1980), as well as dif-
Cvar for 131I in deer thyroid were in the range of ferences in the mobility and residence history of
0.26–0.36, while values for 90Sr in bone were in the individuals, combined with spatially heterogeneous
range of 0.15–0.43 (Whicker et al., 1965b, 1967a). levels in soil, could be responsible. However in this
Mule deer can range over very large areas in search case, very low activity densities in the tissues,
of food and shelter, and consume material from combined with small sample masses for radiochem-
a large number of plant species, when available. istry, also led to relatively large uncertainties in
This can lead to time-averaging of intakes, tending the 239,240Pu analysis. In situations such as this,
to reduce variability. On the other hand, in a external contamination of the tissue samples with a
spatially heterogeneous environment, individuals few soil particles could add some variability.
with limited movements may display considerable Several data sets suggest that coefficient of vari-
variability by selectively using certain areas and ation values for 137Cs in animals such as Colorado
feeding on particular plants. mule deer tend to be substantially lower than values
Table 2.3. Coefficients of variation (Cvar) observed for radionuclide activity densities in terrestrial animal tissues and
products.
Radio-nuclide Animal Tissue or product Sampling area (km2) Cvar Reference
137
Cs Mule deer Liver, Rumen cont. 1.5 · 103 0.66 Whicker et al. (1967b)
0.36
Muscle 0.07–0.12 Whicker et al. (1965a)
131
I Mule deer Thyroid 4.5 · 102 0.26–0.36 Whicker et al. (1965b)
129
I Mule deer Thyroid 2.5 · 103 0.60–0.73 Markham et al. (1983)
90
Sr White-tailed deer Bone (mandible) 2.9 · 102 0.13–0.47 Schultz and Flyger (1965)
90
Sr Mule deer Bone (metacarpal) 1.5 · 103 0.15–0.43 Whicker et al. (1967a)
239,240
Pu Arthropodsa Whole 0.01 0.51–0.96 Bly and Whicker (1979)
239,240
Pu Small mammals Bone Liver Muscle 0.01 2.3 Little et al. (1980)
5.5
5.9
131
I Dairy cowb Milk not reported 0.12–0.43 Voigt et al. (1994)
137
Cs Dairy cowc Milk not reported 0.25–0.48 Voigt et al. (1996)
a
Varied numbers of whole arthropods pooled to obtain 1 g dry mass for analysis.
b
Stable iodine intakes varied across 4 cows.
c
Samples reflect Chernobyl fallout and were taken from 1986 to 1993.
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for soils in the same general environments. As explanation for the relatively high coefficients of
an example, high mountain soils in Colorado, USA, variation in these temporary residents of the reser-
displayed coefficients of variation on the order of voir. The value of 0.6 observed for turtle muscle
0.5–0.6 (Ulsh et al., 2000), while mule deer muscle is also relatively large. The reason for this is not
in the same general region had values of 0.07–0.12 clear; however, these turtles can migrate over land
(Whicker et al., 1965a). This kind of observation between various bodies of water. Thus, it is possible
probably reflects the movements and consequent that some individuals sampled were long-term res-
intake-averaging over time and space by very mobile idents, while others might have recently colonized
animals. the reservoir from other locations. In contrast, the
largemouth bass population is geographically con-
strained to the reservoir. These examples illustrate
2.2.4 Components of aquatic ecosystems
how individual variability in radionuclide content
Selected examples of coefficients of variation for is affected by behavioral patterns.
various aquatic organisms are illustrated for various In general, the coefficients of variation observed
radionuclides in Table 2.4. Overall, the observed for 90Sr in the biota of Pond B are in a roughly
values range from 0.1 to 1.7. The large study for similar range as those for 137Cs in the same samples
warm-water species by Whicker et al. (1990) (Table 2.4). One exception is turtles, which exhibited
involved Pond B, a reservoir at the Savannah River a lower value for 90Sr than for 137Cs. The speculation
Site in South Carolina, USA. Within that ecosystem, could be offered that the longer retention of 90Sr in
Cvar values for 137Cs ranged from 0.16 in largemouth the turtle, compared to 137Cs, would allow for a
bass muscle to 0.94 in waterfowl muscle. Values for longer period of time-averaging for 90Sr, thus produ-
macrophytes ranged from 0.2 to 0.65, depending on cing a smaller variability (Scott et al., 1986). The
species. Largemouth bass forage on a large variety coefficients of variability noted for 239,240Pu in Pond
of invertebrates and fishes, and might tend to B macrophytes ranged from 1.0 to 1.3, in comparison
exhibit time-averaged intakes of radiocesium, per- to values of 0.15 to 0.9 for the fission products
haps explaining the relatively low observed variab- measured in the same samples. This apparent dif-
ility. On the other hand, waterfowl spend relatively ference might be related to the differing mechan-
brief and variable periods of time on the reservoir. isms of radionuclide accumulation in macrophytes.
Therefore, some individual birds might not Whereas cesium and strontium tend to be absorbed
have reached equilibrium 137Cs activity densities. directly into macrophyte tissues from water, pluto-
Perhaps this factor provides at least a partial nium in the form of sestonic material appears to
Table 2.4. Coefficients of variation (Cvar) observed for radionuclide activity densities in aquatic organisms.
Radionuclide Organism Environment (ha) Cvar Reference
137
Cs Largemouth bassa South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.16 Whicker et al. (1990)
Bluegilla South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.40 Whicker et al. (1990)
Macrophytes South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.20–0.65b Whicker et al. (1990)
Turtlesa South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.60 Whicker et al. (1990)
Waterfowla South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.94 Whicker et al. (1990)
137
Cs Trouta Colorado mtn. lakes (50–2500) 0.23–1.7b Nelson and Whicker (1969)
Trouta Colorado, USA mtn. stream 0.71 Nelson and Whicker (1969)
137
Cs Fish-planktivores European lakes 0.12 Hakanson (1999)
Fish-omnivores European lakes 0.14 Hakanson (1999)
Fish-benthivores European lakes 0.19 Hakanson (1999)
Fish-piscivores European lakes 0.37 Hakanson (1999)
Fish-all lake speciesc,d,e European lakes 0.22 Hakanson (1999)
90
Sr Fish-warm water sp.b,f South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.20–0.35 Whicker et al. (1990)
Macrophytes South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.15–0.90 Whicker et al. (1990)
Turtlesb,f South Carolina reservoir (87) 0.26 Whicker et al. (1990)
90
Sr Troutf Colorado mtn. lakes (50–2500) 0.10–0.80 Whicker et al. (1972)
239,240
Pu Macrophytes South Carolina reservoir (87) 1.0–1.3 Whicker et al. (1990)
a
Muscle tissue only.
b
Cvar values species-dependent.
c
Cvar values based on an extensive literature review by Hakanson (1999).
d
Data heavily influenced by Chernobyl fallout.
e
Cvar values tended to decline with time after the Chernobyl event.
f
Bone tissue only.
22 AAPM Member Copy
be surficially adsorbed to plant surfaces from the Utah, USA lakes and reservoirs ranged from 0.23 to
water column and deposited on floating leafed 1.09 (Whicker et al., 1994). The review by Hakanson
species from atmospheric sources at the local site (1999) revealed relatively high within-lake values
(Whicker et al., 1990). The latter processes may for 137Cs in sediments, with many values exceeding
be relatively more spatially complex than direct 1.0 and averaging 0.62 across 15 European lakes.
absorption processes from the water. The values for sediments tend to be considerably
In the cases illustrated for 137Cs and 90Sr in trout higher than for the majority of biotic samples from
from mountain lakes in Colorado, USA (Table 2.4), the same systems (Table 2.4). There was also a gen-
there was a tendency for 137Cs to be slightly more eral tendency, with some exceptions, for terrestrial
variable in muscle tissue than 90Sr in bone from the biota to be less variable than the soil. This is sug-
same fish specimens. One might again speculate gestive that perhaps in general, biota tend to have
that as for turtles, because strontium is retained intake mechanisms that integrate somewhat over
in bone with a considerably longer half time than the spatial complexity of deposition in soils and sedi-
that for cesium in muscle tissue (Scott et al., 1986), ments. Notable exceptions can be found, however,
temporal variations in intake rates for strontium such as the extreme variability in the plutonium
might have less impact than those of cesium on content of small mammal tissues at Rocky Flats
the observed variations for concentrations in tissues. (Table 2.3). Waterfowl and turtles provide another
In other words, cesium concentrations in muscle tis- exception in the case of 137Cs in Pond B (Table 2.4).
sues probably reflect intakes over the past several Hakanson (1999) also reported Cvar values for
137
weeks, whereas strontium concentrations in bone Cs levels in water of 15 European lakes. In 1988,
primarily reflect average intakes over the past sev- within-lake values ranged from 0.07 to 1.73, and
eral months, or longer. This idea is particularly averaged 0.39. The within-lake value reported by
speculative, because the trout samples were taken Whicker et al. (1990) for 137Cs in water of a South
from several different lakes, and the comparative Carolina Reservoir was 0.27. One can tentatively
variability of cesium and strontium within lakes conclude from these two studies that, although not
was not considered. as variable as sediments, water may be somewhat
The entries to Table 2.4 for 137Cs in fish from more variable on average than fish. Exceptions to
European lakes following the Chernobyl accident this, however, no doubt occur.
represent a very comprehensive literature search
and data analysis by Hakanson (1999). It is interest-
2.2.5 Background radiation
ing that the overall mean coefficient of variation for
137
Cs in piscivorous (i.e., predatory) fish appeared Background radiation includes cosmic radiation and
to be considerably higher than for fish which tend terrestrial gamma radiation. Variations in cosmic
to consume plankton, benthic organisms, or those radiation intensity are well known, and these relate
which have an omnivorous diet. The explanation primarily to elevation, latitude, and solar activity
for this needs more study, as pointed out by the (Eisenbud and Gesell, 1997; Whicker and Schultz,
author; however, the observation suggests that the 1982). Variations in terrestrial gamma radiation
diet of piscivorous fish may actually be more variable generally relate to the content of natural uranium,
in 137Cs content than the diets of the other fishes thorium, and their decay progeny, as well as 40K, in
studied. The overall mean coefficient of variation soil and near-surface rocks. The spatial variations
of 0.22 for 137Cs in all fish in the European lakes observed in natural background radiation depend
studied is close to the values of 0.16 for largemouth on the size of the sampling area. For example,
bass studied in a South Carolina reservoir, and Stone et al. (1999) measured radiation exposure
the minimum value of 0.23 for trout in Colorado’s rates in air at various Colorado locations and found
high mountain lakes. A regression of these values coefficients of variation ranging from about 0.06 to
representing all fish data examined by Hakanson 0.2, depending on the geographic size of the area
(1999) indicated a general decline in variability that was sampled. Over a range of sampling areas
with time after the 1986 Chernobyl accident. from 1 to 10,000 km2, the statistically significant
This likely reflects the tendency for radiocesium relationship of Cvar ¼ 0.0316X þ 0.066 was observed,
to gradually disperse and equilibrate between the where X ¼ log10 area sampled (in km2). In Germany,
physical and biological components of lakes after a coefficient of variation estimate of 0.15 for exter-
its initial introduction. nal gamma radiation specifically from 137Cs photons
Observed coefficients of variation for 137Cs in sur- in grassland soils was estimated (Schimmack
face and near-surface sediments of Pond B ranged et al., 1998).
from about 0.4 to 0.7 (Whicker et al., 1990). Within- Another component of natural radioactivity
lake Cvar values for 137Cs deposition in sediments of is 222Rn gas, produced by the decay of 226Ra. The
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variability of 222Rn in air spaces can be very high, atmospheric pressure changes, etc. In one study,
depending on 226Ra contents of source materials Bunzl et al. (1998) examined temporal and small-
(e.g., the surrounding rock, soil, building materials, scale spatial variability in 222Rn gas in soil and
etc.), physical characteristics of the source found a coefficient of variation of 0.25 at a depth of
materials, and current weather variables such as 0.5 m and a value of 0.17 at a depth of 1 m.

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3 GENERAL SAMPLING CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES
3.1 INTRODUCTION because of the variability that is characteristic of

environmental measurements. Spatial, temporal,
Statistical sampling is a process that allows
individual, and measurement variability all con-
inferences about properties of a large collection of
tribute to the total observed variations between
things (commonly described as the population), to
individual, single samples or specimens. The com-
be made from observations made on a relatively
ponents and causes of variability, and examples
small number of individuals belonging to the popu-
of their observed magnitudes, were described in
lation (the sample). Statistical sampling is conceptu-
Section 2. The implication of variability is that
ally different from the activity of merely collecting
individual members of the population (i.e., samples
individual samples, or specimens. In the latter case,
or specimens) being described are not identical. If all
specimens can be collected and measured to describe
members were identical, then characteristics of the
characteristics of those specimens only, with little or
population could be described from that of a single
no ability to generalize to the population. In conduct-
specimen. However, variability is omnipresent, and
ing statistical sampling, one is attempting to make
therefore an appropriate collective sample is always
inferences to the population. The use of valid statist-
necessary to accurately describe the population.
ical sampling techniques increases the chance that a
Because of variability within the population, its
set of specimens (the sample, in the collective sense)
description from an individual sample is imprecise,
is collected in a manner that is representative of
but this precision can be described in quantitative
the population. Statistical sampling also allows a
terms and improved by the choice of sampling design
quantification of the precision with which inferences
and sampling intensity (Peterson and Calvin, 1986).
or conclusions can be drawn about the population.
Statistical sampling assumes that the physical
The most commonly sought population character-
and chemical techniques used to collect and measure
istics in radioecology that are quantitative, thus
the activity of a radionuclide within a specimen are
subject to measurement, are arithmetic averages or
appropriate and accurately executed. Numerous
geometric means as measures of central tendency,
sampling approaches and designs have been
and arithmetic or geometric standard deviations as
developed. The choice of an appropriate sampling
measures of dispersion, or variability. The objective
and measurement method depends on physical
investigator is virtually always concerned about
attributes of the medium (e.g., whether static or
accuracy of the estimate of central tendency, which
means that every effort is made to ensure that this
measure is as close to the actual, but unknown,
value as reasonably possible. The investigator also
must be concerned with the precision of the central
tendency estimate. The precision is estimated from
the degree of dispersion in the data set, as well as
from the number of samples. If the dispersion or
variability is large, then the uncertainty in the cent-
ral tendency estimate is also large. It is possible to
have good precision with poor accuracy, if there is a
consistent bias. On the other hand, good accuracy is
not likely achieved if the precision is poor. Figure 3.1
illustrates the concepts of accuracy and precision. Figure 3.1. Illustration of the concepts of accuracy and precision.
The upper left target shows both high accuracy and high
The distinction between a sample (in the collective
precision, while the upper right target illustrates low accuracy
sense of the term) and a specimen (often referred but high precision. The lower left illustrates reasonable accuracy
to as a sample in the singular sense of the term) but poor precision, while the lower right is an example of poor
and the issue of representativeness is important precision and poor accuracy.
fluid), the radionuclide being studied, size or geo- because different purposes require different sam-
graphic extent of the population of interest, and pling strategies and sampling intensities in order
various other factors. The physical design of the to be effective and efficient.
sampling device and the measurement techniques The choice of sampling design often represents a
must be appropriate for the quantity being studied compromise among four different goals: estimability,
if credible inferences are to result from the data precision, efficiency, and defensibility (DeGruijter
obtained. Environmental sampling devices and and Marsman, 1985). Estimability is the ability of
measurement methods are discussed in many places the sampling program to answer the specific ques-
(e.g., ASTM, 1990; Harley, 1979; Keith, 1990) and tions or meet the purposes of the study. Precision is
are not considered further here. Instead, the focus the ability to quantify the uncertainty or variability
is on the sampling design, namely, how to select of the quantitative estimates provided by the sam-
specific sampling locations within a larger area, pling program. Much of statistical sampling theory
and how to determine the number of individual evaluates and compares estimability and precision
samples to collect. of different sampling designs.
The principles discussed here are elaborated in Efficiency is the ability of the sampling program to
many textbooks and papers about environmental answer the study questions with a relatively small
sampling. Good discussions of the statistical aspects number of individual samples and a small total cost.
of sampling include the general sampling text- In simple sampling programs, the number of sam-
books by Cochran (1977) and Thompson (1992), the ples or specimens required to achieve a specified
environmental statistics textbook by Gilbert (1987), level of precision is an appropriate measure of effici-
and papers by Anderson-Sprecher et al. (1994), ency. In more complex sampling programs, for which
Crepin and Johnson (1993), Peterson and Calvin there might be separately identifiable costs (in time
(1986), and Stehman and Overton (1994). or money) associated with travelling to a study loca-
tion, physically collecting a sample, and then meas-
3.1.1 Objectives
uring some attribute of a sample, the total cost is an
Sampling for radionuclides in the environment appropriate measure of efficiency (Cochran, 1977).
may be carried out for many purposes, including Alternatively, efficiency can be measured by the
estimation of certain characteristics such as the increase in precision achieved for a given added cost.
mass activity density (concentration) of a radio- Defensibility has two components: statistical
nuclide (Bq kg1) in samples of sediment, water, or defensibility is the ability to justify the sampling
biological tissue, the areal activity density of radio- scheme in terms of its statistical properties
nuclide deposition (Bq m2) in soil, etc. Purposes of (Cochran, 1977). Practical defensibility is the ability
estimating such characteristics include: to convince others that the inferences and conclu-
sions resulting from a sampling program are gener-
describing a characteristic of interest (usually the
ally reliable. Practical defensibility puts a premium
average or most probable value, or differences
on simplicity (DeGruijter and Marsman, 1985).
in the characteristic between two or more
populations), 3.1.2 Environmental context
describing the magnitude in variability of a
characteristic, Statistical sampling requires information about
describing spatial patterns of a characteristic, the nature of the population and characteristics to
mapping the spatial distribution, be described. The environmental context provides
locating hot spots or hot particles, four general sorts of information:
defining background levels,
the nature of the population such as the physical
quantifying contamination above a background or
or biological material of interest, its spatial
specified intervention level
extent, its temporal stability, and other important
detecting temporal or spatial trends,
characteristics,
assessing human health or environmental
the expected behavior and environmental
impacts of specific facilities, or of events such as
properties of the radionuclide of interest in the
accidental releases,
population members,
assessing compliance with regulations.
the sampling unit (i.e., individual sample or
Many experimental and monitoring programs specimen), meaning the individual or defined
have multiple objectives, and therefore the rela- portion of a medium selected from the population
tive importance of each should be identified. The for measurement,
purpose(s) of the sampling program must be clearly the expected pattern and magnitude of variability
specified before the sampling program is designed, in the observations.
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GENERAL SAMPLING CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES
The concept of the population is important. The This information includes the expected amount of
population is the set of all items that could be variability among sampling units (see Section 2)
sampled, such as all fish in a lake, all people living that can be used to estimate in advance the appro-
in the USA, all trees in a spatially defined forest, or priate number of individual samples and the par-
all 20 g soil samples from a field. Appropriate speci- ticular sampling design that can be used to ensure
fication of the population includes a description of the ultimate success of the study.
its spatial extent and perhaps its temporal stability.
A sampling design to estimate the average 137Cs
3.1.3 Inferences and populations
activity density in a specific crop in a specific field
will be quite different from the design to estimate Statistical sampling leads to a description of the
the average activity density in that crop across all sampled members of the population and inference(s)
of Europe. The population in the first case is all and conclusion(s) about the population as a whole.
plants growing in the specific field. The population The word population as used in the present report
in the second case is all plants of that crop grown in has a broad meaning. It basically refers to the entire
Europe. Either population should be described by collection of samples of soil, water, organisms, or
one (or more) parameters, used in the definition of other material that could, in principle, be sampled.
the study objectives. In the examples here, the char- In addition, there can be two different specifications
acteristic or attribute of interest is the mean 137Cs of the population, namely, the target population to
activity density. which inferences will be made, and the sampled
The environmental context also helps to define population that is available for measurement.
the sampling unit selected for measurement. It is Ideally, the target and sampled populations should
not practical to consider sampling units so small be the same, but often they are not. The target
that their radionuclide content cannot be easily population should match the study purpose. The
measured. It may be inappropriate to consider sample, used in the collective context, is the group
extremely large sampling units, if they are too diffi- of individual specimens or samples actually collec-
cult to manipulate or process, or if it is necessary to ted. Note that the term ‘sample’ is routinely used in
describe or map very small-scale features. A sam- the statistical and scientific literature in both the
pling unit is a unique element of the population individual context, and the collective context (see
that can be selected as an individual sample for GLOSSARY) for additional clarification.
collection and measurement. Sampling units might Example study scenarios with study purpose,
be individual animals, farms, 1 m2 grid cells, town- target populations, and possible sampling schemes
ships, or soil cores of 0.01 m2 · 25 cm, and so on. In are described in Table 3.1. The first four target popu-
some cases, sampling units are discrete entities lations listed might naively be considered to match
(i.e., animals, trees), but in others, the sampling the study purpose. However, it is clear that for the
unit might be investigator-defined, and arbitrarily purpose of estimating the trend of 137Cs in marine
sized. In this case, the shape, physical location and fish, the target population is likely much too restric-
orientation (sometimes called the support) of the ted. What about other oceans and other species? In
sampling unit must be specified. Consequences of this case, the study purpose should be much more
the choice of individual sample volume are discussed restricted if a reasonable target population is to be
further in Sections 2.2.1 and 3.4. identified. Another problem with this study scenario
Finally, the environmental context provides is that the target population is cod in the North
information that can improve the sampling design. Atlantic, but the sampled population may be just
Table 3.1. Study scenarios with various purposes, target populations and general sampling schemes.
Study purpose Target population Possible sampling scheme
Ecological impact assessment of All 2 litres water samples Fifty 2 litres water samples from
3
H discharge to a river downstream of discharge 10 downstream stations
Dose assessment for a release of Humans living within a 20 km Measurement of 131I in monthly bulk
131
I to the atmosphere radius of the release point milk samples from farms within 30 km
Average 222Rn levels in homes of All homes in the town Measurements of 222Rn in 50 randomly
a small town selected homes
Average levels of 14C in food crops grown All food crops grown in the County Measurements of 14C in corn, wheat
in Larimer County, Colorado, USA over one growing season and potatoes from 15 farms
137
Cs trend in marine fish All cod in the North Atlantic Measurement of 137Cs in 25 cod taken
each month by commercial fishermen

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those cod large enough and accessible enough to be sampling variability is the selection of samples from
caught by the prevailing commercial fishing meth- the population. Hence, conclusions about population
ods. The example shown for 14C in food crops grown parameters are justified by the procedures used
in Larimer County, Colorado, USA, may not lead to to select samples. Potential differences between the
credible conclusions because only three crops are target and sampled populations then become very
sampled and only 15 farms are involved. Larimer important. For example, it is possible that the
County has several thousand farms and these method chosen to sample trout will not allow each
farms grow several dozen food crops. Again, the fish in the population to be sampled. The extent of
sampling scheme proposed is not well-matched to appropriate inferences can depend on the mechan-
the target population. The 50 randomly selected ism used to select samples from the population.
homes for 222Rn measurements may or may not be In model-based inference, the variability among
adequate for the purpose of the study, depending on samples is described using a statistical model of the
the total number of homes in the town, and on the population. This model connects the characteristics
magnitude of variability of radon concentrations of samples to the other, perhaps unknown but meas-
within those homes. urable parameters. For the example in the previous
A schematic of the statistical view of the inferen- paragraph, a model might describe the statistical
tial process is illustrated in Figure 3.2. Here, we distribution (including mean and variance) of the
137
have a target population (i.e., all sampling units Cs activity density in trout as a function of age
of interest) that may be reduced to a sampled popu- and/or size. Estimates of 137Cs activity density in the
lation (i.e., a subset of the target population). The entire trout population, not just the sampled popu-
objective is to learn about the characteristics or lation, can be made using the model and additional
attributes of the target population. The collective information on the age and size distribution of
sample is a set of sampling units, on each of which fish sampled. This form of inference is especially
one measures the attribute of interest, and summar- useful for estimating contained activity (inventory)
izes the observations as the mean value, or as some in a defined population, and for spatial problems
other summary statistic. The inferential process and geostatistics (see Section 5). The validity of the
then uses the knowledge of the sampling protocol inference depends heavily on the appropriateness
and the actual observations from the sampled popu- of the model.
lation to make inferences about the target popula-
tion. Figure 3.2 shows the separation between the
3.1.4 Representativeness
population and the sample. That which cannot be
measured is on the right hand side, and that which The taking of a sufficient number of individual
is measurable is on the left hand side. The arrows samples should provide a collective sample that is
proceeding from right to left indicate the sampling representative of all samples that could be taken
process, while that from left to right indicates the and thus provides a true reflection of the population.
inferential process. If limited in number, samples should contain only
A set of sampling units can be broadly defined typical members, or, with adequately large sample
in two distinct ways. In design-based inference, numbers, they should represent the whole popu-
the true values (or parameters) in the population lation, including the less typical members. A
are considered to be fixed values. For example, one representative collective sample should reflect the
may simply want to know the mean mass activity population not only in terms of the attribute of
density of 137Cs in trout over 25 cm in length in a interest, but also in terms of any incidental factors
specific lake at a specific time. The only source of that affect the attribute of interest.
Representativeness of environmental samples is
difficult to demonstrate. Direct evaluation is norm-
ally impossible, as the true quantitative properties
of the population are unknown. Usually, represent-
ativeness is considered justified by the procedure
used to select the samples. If a probability-based
sampling design is used, it is possible to randomly
choose a set of extreme, non-representative samples.
However, the mathematics of sampling theory limits
the probability of non-representative samples and
yet incorporates the possibility of unusual samples
into the precision of the results. Provided the sam-
Figure 3.2. The sampling and inference processes. pling design is appropriate to the study question,
28 AAPM Member Copy
a sufficiently large number of randomly collected of evaluating the properties of the estimator because
samples can be expected to yield a distribution of choice of samples is purely subjective. In the latter
both typical and atypical values that adequately case, expert opinion may be used, but bias may still
reflect the true distribution of the target population. arise.
Deviations from the sampling design, however, may
introduce non-randomness and thus may negate the 3.2.2 Sampling designs
validity of the sampling technique.
There are a number of sampling design concepts,
the more common of which are described below.
3.1.5 Overall sampling approach
Figure 3.3 illustrates some of these.
The basic concepts and principles of sampling that
have just been described can be summarized with 3.2.2.1 Judgmental sampling
a sequential five-step approach:
A discussion of designs which are not-probability
Define the objectives and questions to be based, namely, those that are based only on judg-
answered. ment, is not provided in this report because of the
Summarize the environmental context for the problems that occur with this form of sampling.
quantities being measured. Examples of such problems include the facts that
Identify the target population, including spatial the sample may be biased, that precision cannot be
and temporal extent. quantified, and that representativeness is unknown.
Select an appropriate sampling design. Thus ultimately, it is not possible to evaluate the
Document the sampling design and its rationale. accuracy or bias of the estimator based on such a
sample. It is obvious that expert knowledge, allied
This approach is similar to that suggested by
with probability sampling, is far superior to judg-
many other authors (Ferretti, 1997; Green, 1979),
mental sampling. However, in unusual cases, judg-
and it is appropriate here because sampling for
mental sampling can be used to identify unusually
radionuclides in the environment is not funda-
high activity densities of radionuclides caused by
mentally different from sampling for other
known mechanisms, for example, sampling near
environmental attributes or quantities. Laboratory
the end of a discharge pipe or at the base of large,
measurements of radionuclides are often different
sloping boulders. The latter sort of data, although
from measurements for other contaminants because
not representative, might allow bounding estimates
very high measurement precision can be obtained
of the maximum dose to local organisms.
(e.g., by using long counting times). This high
measurement precision may be misleading because
3.2.2.2 Simple random sampling
measurement uncertainty is only one of several com-
ponents of the variation in estimating unknown With simple random sampling, every sampling unit
quantities (Peterson and Calvin, 1986). As discussed in the population has, in theory, an equal probability
in Section 2, non-measurement uncertainties arising of being included in the sample. The resulting estim-
from unavoidable natural variability can be much ator based on such a sample will be unbiased, but it
larger than those from measurement. may not be efficient, in either a statistical or prac-
tical sense. Simple random sampling designs are
easy to describe but may be difficult to achieve in
practice. Consider taking a simple random sample of
3.2 METHODS OF SAMPLING
trees in a forest. Drawing a simple random sample
3.2.1 Introduction could require enumerating all the trees, drawing
random numbers (using a random number table or
A number of the more commonly used sampling
computer program) to select those trees in the sam-
designs are described in this section.
ple, then visiting each tree in the sample. Enumer-
Sampling methods fall into two basic groups: those
ating all the trees could be too time-consuming to be
that are based on a probability sample and those
practical if the number of trees in the area of concern
that are not. In probability sampling, it is assumed
was large. In this example, a two-stage random-
that the population can be enumerated so that each
sampling design could easily solve the dilemma of
member of the population has a known and non-
too many trees in the population.
zero probability of being selected. Randomization
is used to identify sample members. Because of
3.2.2.3 Two-stage sampling
the randomization, the statistical properties of the
estimators are known. In non-probability or judge- This design involves definition of primary units,
ment sampling, there is no formal, objective means some fraction of which is selected randomly, then
29 AAPM Member Copy
Figure 3.3. Some common sampling designs for areas. Axes represent lengths in arbitrary units.
the selected primary units are sub-divided and a characteristics that allow them to be distinguished
fraction of the sub-units are selected randomly. At from the other strata, and such characteristics are
each stage, the units in the design may be sub- known to affect the measured attribute of interest.
divided and randomly selected. This design is useful Some ordinary sampling method (e.g., a simple
for components of variation estimation, and it can be random sample or systematic sample) is used to
cost-effective. In the tree example above, the forest estimate the properties of each stratum. Usually,
could be sub-divided into a reasonable number of the proportion of sample observations taken in each
units, a fraction of those units could be randomly stratum is similar to the stratum proportion of the
selected for sampling, and trees within these units population, but this is not a requirement. If good
could then be enumerated and randomly sampled. estimates are wanted for rare strata that have a
Another example of two-stage sampling might be to small occurrence frequency in the population, then
randomly select herds of animals (the primary unit) the number of samples taken from the rare strata
and then to randomly select animals (sub-units) can be increased. Properties of the entire population
from the herds. are estimated from the stratum properties and the
proportion of the population in each stratum. Strati-
3.2.2.4 Stratified sampling fied sampling is more complex and requires more
prior knowledge than simple random sampling, and
Stratified sampling designs provide two important
estimates of the population quantities can be biased
advantages over simple random samples, namely,
if the stratum proportions are incorrectly specified.
efficiency and improved estimates for meaningful
subdivisions of the population. The population
3.2.2.5 Systematic sampling
is divided into strata, each of which is likely to
be more homogeneous than the entire population. Systematic sampling is probably the most commonly
In other words, the individual strata have used method for field sampling. It is generally
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unbiased as long as the starting point is randomly 3.3 NUMBER OF REPLICATE SAMPLES
selected and the systematic rules are followed with
One of the most commonly asked questions is
care. Line transects and two dimensional grids
‘how many individual samples are required?’ The
are specific types of systematic samples that are
number of samples required depends on the quantity
described in more detail in Section 5.5. Consider
to be estimated (e.g., a mean, a variance, or some-
sampling soils in a 15 m · 25 m field. One possible
thing else), on the required precision, and on the
systematic sample of 15 locations might be obtained
natural variation inherent in the population being
by randomly choosing a location within a 5 m · 5 m
sampled. A simple example might be to estimate
area at one corner of the field. The other 14 points
the mean total-body load of 137Cs in children in a
are located every 5 m along lines parallel to each
town. One first needs to ask how many children are
edge of the field. Other possibilities for systematic
required for the measurement. If the expected
sampling in a field are discussed in Section 5.5.
degree of variation among the children is known or
Systematic sampling is often more practical than
estimated, and an estimate of the population mean
random sampling because the procedures are
with a relative variance of, say 15 % is desired,
relatively easy to implement in practice, but this
a standard formula can be used to determine the
approach may miss important features if the quant-
number of children that need to be randomly
ity being sampled varies with regular periodicity
sampled in order to achieve the desired level of
and the sampling scheme has similar periodicity.
precision.
3.2.2.6 Cluster sampling A more complex example might be to estimate
the average activity density of 14C in apples in an
Cluster sampling is most frequently applied in situ- orchard close to a nuclear power station. One could
ations where members of the population are found define the sampling unit as a single apple tree, and
in clusters or colonies. Then, clusters of individuals then the question becomes the number of trees to
are selected randomly and all individuals within sample within the orchard. Next, there is a choice of
each cluster are selected and measured. Another the number of apples to sample from each selected
variant would involve random selection of a fraction tree. This would be an example of two-stage sam-
of the individuals within a cluster. Cluster sampling pling with two decisions about sample size. Suppose
is a convenient and practical design if individuals a precision (or relative uncertainty of 10 %) is
naturally group within the population. Adaptive desired. Without prior knowledge, the variation in
sampling is a form of cluster sampling in which the 14C content in apples can only be determined
decisions are made during the survey, particularly only after the apples have been sampled and
when a cluster, such as a community or herd, are analyzed. It is often the case that a pilot study is
detected unexpectedly. necessary to provide a preliminary estimate of the
variability in the population. Alternatively, one
3.2.2.7 Double sampling
could proceed with a presumed estimate of the
A procedure known as double sampling can be useful expected variability, based on published Cvar values
when one characteristic may be difficult or expens- (the type of information presented in Section 2.2).
ive to measure but another related characteristic Another typical question might be: Supposing
is simple or easy to measure. This might involve an orchard, located a considerable distance away
making a relatively large number of analyses using from the power station, that was expected to repres-
the more efficient technique, and selecting a few ent the background 14C level, has been identified.
specimens from this sample on which to make the How would one test whether an orchard near the
more expensive analysis. Then, if the two techniques station had an average 14C level higher than that
yield a reasonably strong predictive relationship, of the background location? How many samples
one can use data from the efficient technique and would be needed for the detection of a difference of,
the relationship to make an inference to the entire say, 5 Bq kg1? What is the smallest difference
sample. A classic example in radioecology is to one would be able to detect given that we take
measure 241Am in many soil samples by gamma- 10 samples from each orchard? Both these questions
ray spectroscopy, and then measure 239,240Pu by can be answered, but the answers require the
laborious radiochemical methods in a few of the assumption of a statistical model. The details of
same samples. Providing there is a strong relation- the model are different for each type of sampling
ship between these radionuclides, one can infer design and quantity to be estimated. The formulae
239,240
Pu in unmeasured samples from the measured to answer these sorts of questions in a quantitative
241
Am values (Ibrahim et al., 1996). manner are presented in Section 4.2.2.1.

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3.4 SAMPLE MASS OR VOLUME than A/w. The variance among 1 g samples is larger
than that among 2 g samples, but by some amount
Sample units are naturally defined when they are
less than the factor of 2 expected for homogenous
individual plants or animals. In contrast, sample
samples. If the material is extremely heterogenous,
units for soil and water are arbitrary divisions of
then A may be close to zero. If so, the variance among
a continuous resource. The appropriate choice
1 g samples is similar to that among 2 g samples.
of individual sample mass or volume for soil or
water is not always obvious, and may depend on
non-statistical considerations, including sample-
processing requirements, counting geometries, feas- 3.5 COMPOSITING AND POOLING
ibility, and cost. There is no international consensus Suppose the average 137Cs activity density in a
on appropriate sample masses and volumes. Clearly, wheat crop grown in a specific region is to be estim-
the choice of mass or volume will depend on the ated. Because of different farming practices within
detection limit, which is affected by the radionuclide the region, the appropriate sample unit is a farmer’s
of interest and the analytical method and equip- field. The major sampling decision would be to
ment available, the activity density of the samples, determine how many fields should be sampled and
and the variability among replicate samples. how they should be chosen. The method could be
In general, larger sample specimens are more chosen from one of the sampling designs discussed
likely to produce data that are above detection lim- in Section 3.2.2. The next decision is how to collect
its. Detection limits are a function of the count rate, information about each field. At least three sampling
which depends on the total activity in the sample. schemes might be considered. In Scheme 1, a single
Larger samples have larger total activity; therefore, large sample is taken from a randomly located
all else being equal, data from larger individual position in the field. In Scheme 2, the field is divided
samples are more likely to be above detection limits. into four quarters and one small sample is taken
Larger individual samples are often less variable from a randomly located position in each quarter,
than smaller ones, in the sense that the variability and then each sample is analyzed separately.
among 10 large soil samples from a particular field In scheme 3, four small samples are taken, as in
is likely to be smaller than the variability among 10 scheme 2, and these are combined into a single
small soil samples. For cases where the geographic sample before analysis.
scale of the variation within the sampled population Compositing is a general technique for reducing
is much larger than the feasible range of sample the variability among sample units, and scheme 3
masses or volumes that can be analysed, a general above is an example of compositing or pooling. It
relationship between individual sample mass (or is especially useful when the cost for sample pro-
volume) and replicate variance has been proposed cessing or analysis is high. In composite sampling,
(Visman, 1969). The relationship is a specified number of sub-samples (wheat) are
s2 ¼ B þ A=w, ð3:1Þ collected from a single sampling unit (field) and com-
bined into a single sample before analysis. The aver-
where s2 is the variance among replicate samples, age activity in the analyzed sample is expected to be
w is the mass of the samples and A/w and B are the same (assuming very low analysis uncertainty)
variance components that describe the variability as the average activity among the sub-samples, but
and homogeneity of the sampled material. this ‘average’ is obtained from a single analysis.
If the material is homogeneous (e.g., a finely Collecting a larger sample might be considered a
ground, well-mixed powder with a finely dispersed specific type of compositing (i.e., combining two adja-
contaminant), then A/w is much larger than B. The cent 1 g sub-samples into a single 2 g sample). The
relationship between individual sample mass and difference is that the sub-samples of a composite
variance is the same as that between number of sample are collected from throughout the entire
samples and variance. The variance among samples sampling unit, but a larger single sample is collected
of 1 g is twice that among 2 g samples. A radio- from just one location within the sampled unit. If the
ecological example of the choice of aliquot mass material is homogenous, this difference is unimport-
for 241Am in soil samples, shown in Figure 2.1, is ant. The increase in precision obtained by composit-
discussed by Gilbert and Doctor (1985). Another ing five 1 g samples is the same as that obtained
example for 137Cs in soils is provided by Nyhan by collecting a single 5 g sample, so there is no
et al. (1983). These concepts are discussed further advantage to compositing. If the material is hetero-
by Ingamells (1974). geneous with considerable small-scale spatial vari-
If the material is heterogeneous (e.g., as is the case ation, the variability among 5 g samples is likely to
for many soils or sediments), then B is much larger be larger than that among composite samples taken
32 AAPM Member Copy
by compositing five 1 g sub-samples. Williams et al. done if the designated sampling location is on an
(1989) illustrated the improved precision attainable island, or in water too deep for the sampling
through sample compositing. When sampling soil equipment? One common solution is to select a
from uranium mill tailings for 226Ra, the standard nearby location that does contain appropriate mater-
deviation between composites of ten samples was ial. Another is to ignore the location and reduce the
approximately a quarter of the standard deviation sample size. A less common solution is to select
observed between individual samples. another location using the original sample design.
If the field is homogeneous, with little small-scale This approach differs from the first in that the
spatial variability, all three sampling Schemes alternate location may be far from the original
have equal precision. If the field is heterogeneous, location.
samples from Scheme 1 are less precise than those An appropriate approach to deal with the inability
from Schemes 2 and 3. Schemes 2 and 3 are equally to sample at a pre-determined location depends on
precise and require similar amounts of field effort, the goal of the sampling program. If the goal is to
but Scheme 2 requires analyzing four times as map an area, then a recommendation is to select a
many samples as does Scheme 3. If the cost of nearby location with appropriate material and use
analysis is markedly higher than the cost of field that sample and its correct location for the map.
work, Scheme 3 provides an equally precise answer If lake sediments are being mapped, a sampling
for substantially less cost. However, Scheme 2 pro- point that falls on an island will be shifted to some
vides an estimate of within-field variation, while point in the (presumably) shallow water around
Scheme 3 does not, which therefore limits statistical the island. If the goal is to estimate the mean con-
comparisons, say between fields. centration or an inventory in a population, then one
recommendation is to consider carefully the defini-
tion of the population of interest. Does it include the
areas being rejected from the sample? For example,
3.6 PRACTICAL SAMPLING ISSUES
if the population of interest includes rocky areas,
In this section, some of the practical issues that the appropriate value should be recorded for the
might arise in sampling are briefly discussed. A com- rocky area that was selected to be in the sample. If
mon issue concerns the problem of not being able the population is composed only of soil underneath
to follow exactly the pre-determined statistical grasses, that population does not include the areas
sampling design. This happens for various reasons, covered by rock. Although there are theoretical reas-
including problems with sample selection (e.g., ons to prefer ignoring the sampling point and either
material not present at the selected site), the pres- reducing the sample size or selecting a completely
ence of obstacles or conditions preventing a sample new sample point, in practice the differences among
at a given location, many forms of human error (e.g., the three approaches are usually slight, especially
loss or contamination of the sample), and analytical if the frequency of inappropriate points is small. If
problems (e.g., insufficient amount of material for many points are being rejected as inappropriate,
analysis). Below-detection limit observations are then one should reconsider the definition of the
considered separately (see Section 3.7) because target population.
they provide some information about the sample,
while missing values provide no information.
Missing values can complicate the analysis, unless
3.7 DATA ANALYSIS
it can be assumed that missing values arise com-
pletely at random. The distribution of values from The methods of analysis of the measurements made
missing data, if such data are random, is assumed to are related to the sampling design used. Most stat-
be the same as the distribution of observed data. istical analyses resulting from sampling focus on
This is probably a reasonable assumption for miss- estimation of the quantities of interest and their
ing values arising from human error, but it is not statistical uncertainties. The desired statistical
appropriate if extremely small or extremely large properties of such estimators are that they should
values are more likely to be missing. be unbiased (i.e., the expected value of the estimator
Absence of suitable material is a common source of should accurately estimate the true but unknown
missing values in environmental sampling. For population value) and be precise (i.e., have the smal-
example, if trees are being sampled, what should be lest uncertainty achievable). In Section 4.2, more
done if there are no trees at the designated sampling detailed discussion and formulae are provided for
location? If soil is being sampled, what should be estimating the quantities of interest under some of
done if the designated sampling location is too rocky? the most commonly used sampling designs. It is reit-
If lake sediments are being sampled, what should be erated here that the present report is focused on
33 AAPM Member Copy
the design of the sampling program, rather than 3.8 QUALITY ASSURANCE
on the analysis of data resulting from a sampling
A quality assurance protocol should be part of
program.
every sampling program. While quality assurance
3.7.1 Below-detection-limit observations is usually associated with sample collection, hand-
ling, and measurement techniques, the concept of
Below-detection-limit observations can be a common
documenting the environmental sampling design
feature of environmental measurements for radio-
can be just as important. A quality assurance
nuclides. Unlike missing values, which provide no
document for an environmental sampling program
information about the sampled quantity at the sam-
should also contain the following information:
ple location, a below-detection-limit value provides
partial information, namely, that the value is less clear description of the objectives of the study,
than the detection limit. These values complicate explicit definition of the target and sampled
data analysis because they should be included in population,
estimation of the sample statistics, but they have specification of the degree of precision required,
little consequence for the design. Below-detection- description of, and documentation of rationale for,
limit values clearly reveal properties of the popula- the sampling design that was chosen,
tion of interest, and there are methods of obtaining documentation of the randomization technique
numerical estimates for purposes of data analysis used to select sample units, if a random design
(Akritas et al., 1994; Gilbert, 1987). is used.

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4 ESTIMATING STATISTICAL QUANTITIES: MEAN, TOTAL,

PROPORTION, PERCENTILE, AND RATIO
4.1 INTRODUCTION Identify the target population and the sampling

unit, including the spatial, temporal, and ecologi-
Common estimation objectives and selected sam-
cal coverage.
pling designs that could be used to achieve those
Select an appropriate sampling strategy, includ-
objectives are discussed in this section. Detailed
ing the sampling intensity.
specifications of all the sampling designs will not
Document the sampling design and its rationale.
be given since they can be found in many text-
books including Cochran (1977), Gilbert (1987), and
Thompson (1992). The estimation objectives include: 4.2 POPULATION MEAN AND TOTAL
estimation of the mean and total, 4.2.1 Introduction
estimation of a proportion (e.g., the unknown
One of the most common objectives of research in
fraction of a population more than a specified
environmental radioactivity is estimation of the
value),
mean activity density of a radionuclide in a popula-
estimation of a percentile (e.g., the unknown
tion. The population mean and variance are often
value below which a specified fraction of the
the most relevant summaries of the distribution of
population lies),
the attribute within the target population. Although
estimation of a ratio.
in general practice, the terms ‘mean’ and ‘average’
Generally, in the process of estimation of the are used interchangeably, there is a statistical
average or other summary, a preliminary estimate distinction. The term mean is the true arithmetic
of the variation will be required. Ultimately, a robust average of the population, while the term average
estimate of an average, or other measure of central refers to the arithmetic average of the sample. The
tendency, will also produce distributional infor- arithmetic average of a sample is then used as an
mation, such as shape and magnitude of variation. estimate of the population mean.
The variance of a data set is approximately the
average of the squared deviations from the mean Step 1: Define the objectives.
(Snedecor and Cochran, 1961). Examples might include estimating the ambient
More than one sampling design may be appropri- background 14C level in vegetation in the United
ate for a stated objective, but this discussion is Kingdom, the average 137Cs activity density in cow’s
focused on simple random sampling, stratified ran- milk in an area, or the average whole-body dose
dom sampling, and systematic sampling. The selec- received by Laplanders in northern Norway after
tion process and practical considerations will impact Chernobyl. These examples specify the objective
the choice of sampling design. A final section will in terms of the average value, implicitly in the
briefly describe other less-commonly used sampling first case and explicitly in the final two cases, of a
designs and contexts in which they may be appropri- particular population. Thus the statement of the
ate. A number of examples and case studies are scientific objective already points towards the mean
used for purposes of illustration. of the target population, but more careful definition
As outlined in Section 3, in each example there are is required.
five basic steps in the development of a sampling
Step 2: Summarize the environmental context.
design:
Next, one must define the spatial and temporal
Define the objectives. extent as well as the environmental context of the
Summarize the environmental context for the problem. Here, consideration about the general-
quantities being measured. izability or scope of inference of the objective

statement is at issue. For example, should the number of individual plants; therefore, this example
statement generalize to the entire country or simply is developed further.
to a specific district (in which case the target popu-
lation in the second example from Step 1 might be
4.2.2.1 Estimation of the average baseline 14C level
all cows in that geopolitical district). The time period
in vegetation.
of interest also is an important constraint, e.g., if
An estimate of the background 14C level in vegeta-
the average over the year or in a specific month is
tion is an important quantity in a study to evaluate
of interest, then the target population is defined in
any impact of 14C discharges from a nuclear instal-
the same temporal frame. The environmental con-
lation. It is also quite common in a radiological
text should add a further consideration, namely, the
assessment statement to present the anthropogenic
volume or mass of material required for analysis.
impact relative to natural or background levels,
For example, if an analysis requires 1 litre of milk,
which must then also be estimated.
or 500 g of plant material, then the target population
It is normally assumed that 14C is globally mixed
must also be defined in such units. At the end of
and that living plants are in equilibrium with atmo-
these defining steps, the statement of the target
spheric concentrations. In order to estimate the
population should be well defined, resulting in a
background level one first needs to identify a loca-
clearly stated objective that also provides specific
tion geographically removed from possible anthro-
definition of the sampling units.
pogenic influences such as fossil fuel burning or
Step 3: Identify the population and the sampling unit. nuclear power generation. Representative samples
This step might go even further by more specifically then need to be selected from such a location. For
identifying all plants of a particular species (and this particular problem, definition of the target
perhaps plant parts such as leaves) in the 14C exam- population should include identification of the
ple, or all commercial milk cows in a county in species or type of plant and information on where
the second example, or all Lapps >1 year of age in and when it grew. For the choice of species, it should
northern Norway in the third example. By com- be widely available and a suitable material for 14C
pletely defining the target population, the first assay; a material such as grass would be ideal
stage in the identification of appropriate sampling (McCartney et al., 1988). The statement of the objec-
units is completed. tive also defines the spatial context, requiring a loca-
tion remote from any industrial or nuclear facility.
Step 4: Select the sampling strategy. For 14C analysis by radiometric analysis, approxi-
Next, a protocol by which the sampling units will be mately 50 g wet weight of grass would be required,
selected must be developed. There are, as described which could be converted to a statement of the
in Section 3, many sampling designs, but focus spatial extent of the actual sampling unit (e.g.,
will be placed on the three most commonly used grass from a 100 cm2 area). In terms of the temporal
schemes (simple random, stratified, and systematic extent, as the atmospheric 14C concentration is not
sampling). constant over time, it would be logical for the sam-
ples to be selected from a single growing season and
Step 5: Document the sampling design and rationale. for a specific year such as 1998. This completes the
Documentation of the sampling design and the first three steps, resulting in a clear definition of
rationale for choosing the design is critical as a the target population, namely, all areas of 100 cm2
foundation to subsequent data analyses and for the within the location and of a sampling unit, namely
ultimate achievement of a credible study. grass clipped from a 100 cm2 area.
The next step requires identification of the loca-
4.2.2 Simple random sampling in practice tions at which the grass samples will be cut and
determination of how many grass samples will be
In a simple random sample, every sampling unit in
required to satisfy the objectives of the study.
the population is expected to have an equal proba-
bility of being included in the sample. The first step The sampling frame. In simple random sampling,
requires complete enumeration of the population one might assume a population of N units (N areas of
members. In the simple random-sampling scheme, 100 cm2), and use simple random sampling to select
one generates a set of random digits that are used to n of these units. This typically involves generation
objectively identify the individuals to be sampled of n random digits between 1 and N, which would
and measured. In the last two examples, individual identify the units to sample. If a number is repeated,
cows and individual persons would be enumera- then one would simply generate a replacement digit.
ted. In the first example, the enumeration of the In the 14C example, this would require a conceptual
population is more difficult, owing to the very large view of the region, divided up into N units of 100-cm2
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ESTIMATING STATISTICAL QUANTITIES: MEAN, TOTAL, PROPORTION, PERCENTILE, AND RATIO
numbered consecutively from 1 to N. The random If in the example, n ¼ 10, then the sampling design
digits generated then identify the square in which is to identify the 10 sites of 100 cm2 at which the
the grass is to be sampled. Tables of random digits grass is to be sampled.
are widely published, and various computer pro-
Numerical example.
grams are available for this purpose as well. An
Number of possible and actual samples: N ¼ 100;
example table is provided as Appendix 1.
n ¼ 10 (thus, f ¼ 0.1)
From the n units sampled, suppose that the 14C
Attribute: 14C specific activity (Bq kg1 of stable
activity density is measured in each sample, any one
carbon)
of which is denoted as yi; then the sample average,
Simple random sampling design: Figure 4.1 shows
y is an unbiased estimate of the population mean 14C
a schematic of the area and the population of sites of
activity density and the sample variance, s2, would
100 cm2 enumerated from 1 to N, from which sites
provide an unbiased estimate of the population
49, 29, 25, 2, 69, 77, 52, 98, 85, 17 were selected by a
variance:
P random process.
yi Observed data from the randomly selected
y ¼ , ð4:1Þ
n sampling units: 276, 281, 281, 278, 277, 274, 277,
283, 283, 282.
and
The sample average and sample standard devia-
P
ðyi yÞ2 tion are 279 Bq kg1 carbon and 3.19 Bq kg1 carbon,
2
s ¼ : ð4:2Þ respectively. From Eq. (4.3), the sample variance is
n1
therefore 3.192[(1 p ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
0.1)/10]
ffi ¼ 0.92 and the random
As well as providing unbiased estimates of the sampling error is 0:92, or 0.96.
corresponding population quantities, it is also Rather than simply quoting the mean and vari-
important to estimate the random sampling error ance as point estimates of the population quantities,
associated with the estimates. Such a sampling it is possible to present the results in a different
error acknowledges the expectation that slightly dif- format, namely, a plausible range for the population
ferent average activities would result from a differ- mean (or the baseline level) based on the sample
ent set of sampling units, simply reflecting the mean and its sampling error as shown below
natural variation in 14C activity densities in the pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
sampling units. The expression for this term is also ts ð1 f Þ
y – pffiffiffi , ð4:4Þ
relatively straightforward, involving the sampling n
fraction f which is usually very small and given by
n/N. In the formula below, Var( y) represents the where t is the t-factor that is read from statistical
sampling variance, and the random sampling error tables for the t-distribution (Appendix 2). The
is simply the square root of this term (sometimes numerical value of t is defined by the required con-
also called the estimated standard error or e.s.e.). fidence level (typically 95 %) and by the ‘degrees of
freedom’ which for this simple case is n – 1.
2 1f One other input in such a calculation is that of
VarðyÞ ¼ s : ð4:3Þ
n the confidence level of such an interval, which also
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
Figure 4.1. Conceptual diagram of 100 enumerated sites, from which 10 (shown in bold letters) were selected randomly for sampling.
37 AAPM Member Copy
defines the value for t. Typically, one uses the size calculations are published (Fleiss, 1981) and
1s(68 %) or 2s(95 %) levels. Such an interval is many statistical software packages include sample
interpreted as giving a range of values that includes size calculations.
the true but unknown population value with the For the case of estimation of the average, using
stated probability, the confidence level (e.g., 68 % simple random sampling, the estimated standard
or 95 %). error of the sample mean (or the precision with
Number of samples. In the 14C example, one might which we are able to estimate the population mean)
ask why the value of n ¼ 10 was chosen? This final depends on both the sample variance and n. As
question concerns the sampling intensity, and from n increases, the estimated standard error decreases
a practical point of view is one of the most important with Hn. See Eq. 4.3 for Var( y).
questions. The principal steps involved in deter- Returning to the 14C example, suppose one wanted
mining the sample size when one wishes to detect to estimate the mean 14C activity density with
a difference are as follows: an estimated standard error (e.s.e.) precision of
–0.1 Bq kg1 carbon. Therefore, how many samples
(1) stating the desired limits of precision for the would be required? Since the e.s.e. of the
population inference (how precisely does one sample mean is s/Hn, then one must solve for n, for
want to know the average activity density, or, example:
what size of difference is needed to be detected
and with what precision?), s 2 3:192
(2) stating the inherent population variability of n¼ ¼ ¼ 1018: ð4:5Þ
e:s:e: 0:1
the attribute of interest, and
(3) deriving an equation which relates the number Thus this degree of improvement in precision,
(n) of samples with the desired precision of can only be achieved by increasing the number of
the parameter estimator and the degree of sig- samples taken to approximately 1000. This may well
nificance (the chance of being wrong in the be impractical; therefore the only solution may be to
inference). This equation will contain certain accept a lower precision.
unknown attributes of the population (para- Continuing with the 14C example, the question
meters) that must be estimated. might be: How many samples would be required to
The chosen value for n must be checked to confirm be reasonably confident of being able to detect an
its consistency with any practical constraints. enhancement of a fixed amount above the baseline
The specification of precision in Step 1 is both a level? Allow the assumption that the baseline level is
statement about the amount of random sampling known and fixed at 279 Bq kg1 carbon and that s2,
error that one is willing to tolerate in the sample the sample variance estimated from a previous
estimates, but may also be a statement about the study, is known (3.192). Also assume that an accept-
magnitude of difference for detection. One important able level of confidence (also referred to as power) in
unknown in such statements is the population vari- the conclusion was 0.8. Then, to be able to detect a
ance; thus, before calculating how many samples are difference of d Bq kg1 carbon with 80 % confidence,
required, a prior estimate of it is needed (Step 2). one would find that n ¼ 82 samples were required for
There are various ways that this can be achieved d ¼ 1. If one wished to be able to detect a larger
including: a pilot study, previous sampling of the enhancement, e.g., d ¼ 5, then only 6 observations
same or similar population, published literature would be needed. If there was a desire to be more
values, or subjective judgement. confident in a detection (i.e., less likely to claim a
In Step 1, one states the acceptable level of error in difference when in fact it did not exist) then more
the decision, for example, the willingness to accept a samples would be required. It is entirely possible
5 % chance of being wrong and in declaring that that a very small difference could only be detected
there is a difference when in fact there is not (in using an unrealistically large value of n. Table 4.1
classical statistical hypothesis testing, this is called illustrates the effects of power, s and d on required
the significance level). sample size.
In Step 3, one needs to link n with the stated In the 14C background example, there was no
requirements of Steps 1 and 2. The answer to the environmental evidence to believe that the popula-
number of samples depends to a great extent on the tion was non-homogeneous, thus simple random
level of variation in the sampling units, the precision sampling is a reasonable sampling strategy. Next,
which is required in estimating the average and any an example with a similar objective is considered,
practical constraints (e.g., time and cost). The form where the environmental context suggests that the
of the equation may also depend on the sampling population could be non-homogeneous. This may
strategy that has been adopted. Tables of sample require a different sampling scheme.
38 AAPM Member Copy
Table 4.1. Illustration of the effects of level of confidence (power), the sample standard deviation (s), and the magnitude of
the difference above the population mean to be detected on the required sample size.
Size of difference Power ¼ 0.5 Power ¼ 0.8 Power ¼ 0.9

above mean
s ¼ 1.5 s ¼ 3.2 s¼5 s ¼ 1.5 s ¼ 3.2 s¼5 s ¼ 1.5 s ¼ 3.2 s¼5
0.1 867 3936 9605 1768 7989 19625 2367 10695 26271
0.2 218 986 2403 444 1999 4908 593 2676 6570
0.3 98 439 1069 199 890 2183 265 1190 2921
0.4 56 248 603 113 502 1229 150 671 1644
0.5 37 160 387 73 322 787 97 430 1053
0.6 26 112 269 52 224 547 68 299 732
0.7 20 83 198 39 165 403 51 221 539
0.8 16 64 152 30 127 309 39 170 413
0.9 13 51 121 24 101 245 32 134 327
1.0 11 42 98 20 82 199 26 109 265
1.1 10 35 82 17 68 165 22 91 220
1.2 9 30 69 15 58 139 19 77 185
1.3 8 26 59 13 50 119 17 66 158
1.4 7 23 51 12 43 103 15 57 136
1.5 6 20 45 10 38 90 13 50 119
1.6 6 18 40 10 34 79 12 44 105
1.7 6 16 36 9 30 70 11 39 93
1.8 5 15 32 8 27 63 10 35 84
1.9 5 13 29 8 25 57 9 32 75
2.0 5 12 26 7 22 52 9 29 68
2.1 5 11 24 7 21 47 8 27 62
2.2 4 11 22 6 19 43 8 25 57
2.3 4 10 21 6 18 40 7 23 52
2.4 4 9 19 6 16 37 7 21 48
2.5 4 9 18 6 15 34 7 20 44
2.6 4 8 17 5 14 32 6 18 41
As power and sample variance increase, the required sample size must increase. As the size of the difference to be detected becomes
smaller, the required sample size increases.
4.2.3 Example: 137Cs contained activity

dimension that can be collected using the particular
(inventory) in sediment of an estuary
sampling tool available. This immediately defines
The estimation of contained activity of radioactive the spatial extent of the members of the population.
material in specific locations or areas is a common If a corer is used, the dimension of the tool specifies
objective in radioecological investigations (ICRU, the areal extent of a sample. The depth distribution
2001). Suppose one wishes to estimate the inventory will also be an important component in the invent-
of 137Cs in the sediments of an estuary. Inventory or ory calculation, and thus the vertical extent of the
contained activity is the total activity (in Bq) of a sample unit must also be defined (cores taken to
specified radionuclide in a specified compartment. 30 cm depth, for example).
The objective is the estimation of the inventory of In an environment where the sediments are
137
Cs in the sediments of an estuary whose bound- accreting, the vertical distribution may show a sub-
aries have been clearly defined. Assume a precise surface maximum, which is thus an important
estimate of the area (m2) involved is available, and component in the inventory estimate. Thus for accu-
then it becomes necessary to measure 137Cs areal rate inventory estimation, it is necessary to collect
activity densities (Bq m2), which are multiplied by sediment cores and measure the 137Cs activity in
the area to estimate the contained activity in Bq. different depth layers. Using the example of employ-
Definition of target population and sampling ing a specific coring tool, the target population
units. The target population can only be defined might be defined as follows:
after considering what is known about the sampling Target population: All sediment cores (depth
of sediments, the measurement of 137Cs in sediment, 30 cm, diameter 10 cm) within the estuary that
and the distribution mechanisms for 137Cs in the could potentially be taken.
estuarine system. If one first considers the sampl- Sampling unit: A single core
ing tools available, then the target population must Measurements: Total 137Cs activity (Bq) in the
be made up of all sediment samples of a specific core, and to assure credible results, depth profiles
39 AAPM Member Copy
to test whether the total 137Cs activity is captured in stratum is similar to the stratum proportion in the
the upper 30 cm of the sediment. population.
The next step requires identification of the sites In stratified sampling, the population of N units is
at which the cores are to be collected. Again, using first divided into sub-populations of N1, N2, . . . , NL
simple random sampling, this can be achieved by units. These sub-populations are non-overlapping
considering the estuary as divided into a large num- and together constitute the whole population. The
ber of unique sample units (or locations of diameter sub-populations are called strata. They need not
10 cm) labelled 1 to N and then generating n random have the same number of units, but, to obtain the
digits between 1 and N to identify the locations to full benefit of stratification, the sub-population sizes
sample. Possible practical difficulties that could be or areas must be known. In stratified sampling,
encountered include coring difficulties due to a stony a sample is drawn from each of the strata, the size
surface, inability to take a full length core, or that of each sample ideally in proportion to the popula-
the area selected might not be accessible on the day tion size or area of that stratum. In certain situa-
of sampling. Such difficulties mean that the final set tions, the rare strata may be proportionally
of locations may require modification. over-sampled to ensure that better estimates of
To estimate the 137Cs contained activity in the rare sub-populations can be obtained. Often, simple
estuary (Ac), a naı̈ve estimate would be the product random sampling is used in each stratum.
of average 137Cs contained activity of the collected For the sediment example, the strata might be
core samples and N, the number of all such cores defined as distinct sediment types. Knowledge of
that could, in principle, be collected in the estuary. the fractional areas of each sediment type within
The value of Ac and the estimate of the sampling the estuary would be needed to ensure appropriate
variance (Var) on this figure are given by sampling fractions within each stratum. Simple
random samples of size n1, n2, . . ., nl would be taken
Ac ¼ N · y, ð4:6Þ
from each strata in the same manner as described in
and Section 4.2.2.
To estimate the average and variance of each
1f
2 2 stratum, one would use the equations provided in
VarðAc Þ ¼ N s : ð4:7Þ
n Section 4.2.1. The overall average contained activity
(Ac) requires a procedure to combine the results from
Simple random sampling may not be the best
the strata. The basic form is that of a weighted
approach for this problem, as one other factor con-
average, in which the weights reflect the sampling
cerning the environmental behaviour of 137Cs would
fractions of each strata, denoted with subscript l:
suggest a different sampling strategy. It is known P
that sediment type and particle size distribution ðNl yl Þ
Ac ¼ l , ð4:8Þ
likely have an influence on 137Cs activity density, N
and thus the distribution of 137Cs in the estuary
and
may not be homogeneous. An assumption that the
population of all sediment samples is homogeneous X s2l

in 137Cs activity will likely be wrong. Hence in this VarðAc Þ ¼ Wl2 ð1 fl Þ , ð4:9Þ
l
nl
situation, the environmental context provides
information that impacts the choice of sampling where Wl ¼ Nl/N and Var(Ac) is the variance of Ac.
strategy. A map of the sediment type within the Population: l strata, with N1, N2, . . ., Nl, units
estuary will indicate areas of mud, sand etc., each Sample (by random sampling) from each stratum
of which could be expected to have a different 137Cs n1, n2, . . ., nl units
activity density. Thus, an alternative scheme would In essence stratified random sampling assumes
separately estimate the 137Cs activity in these dis- either that the strata sizes are known, or that they
tinct sediment types, and then combine those esti- will need to be estimated. In the simplest case,
mates of 137Cs with the appropriate area values that is, in proportional allocation, we assume that
for each sediment type to obtain a new inventory nl/n ¼Nl/N and hence that the sampling fraction is
estimate. This is an example of stratified sampling. the same in each stratum.
Stratified sampling. In stratified sampling, the The average, y1 , and variance, sl2, for each
population is divided into two or more strata that stratum, l, are estimated from Eqs. (4.1) and (4.2).
individually are more homogeneous than the entire The population mean and variance are estima-
population, and a sampling method is used to ted using Eqs. (4.8) and (4.9) assuming that Wl,
estimate the properties of each stratum. Usually, the stratum weight, is known. Typically the
the proportion of sample observations in each proportional allocation for the sampling fraction is
40 AAPM Member Copy
used (i.e., nl/n ¼Nl/N), and, then in Eq. (4.8), Nl is Simple random and stratified random sampling
replaced by nl and N is replaced by n. may be impractical, say in the sediment example,
Stratified random sampling will, with appropriate if finding precise sampling locations is difficult.
use, provide more precise estimates than simple ran- Global positioning systems (GPS) can now make
dom sampling, but more information is required this task much easier. A more practical method of
before the specific strategy can be carried out. The sampling might involve covering the area in a sys-
question of how many samples and how those tematic manner, say in parallel-line transects. The
samples should be allocated to the different strata final sampling method detailed in Section 4 is that
should also be answered. In general, for a given of systematic sampling, which is often easier to
stratum, a greater number of samples should be execute than simple or stratified random sampling,
taken if the stratum is larger than any other, if it is and which in some cases is more representative
more variable internally than others, or perhaps if than a random sample.
it is less expensive to sample from that particular
stratum. Formulas for the calculation of the num-
4.2.4 Systematic sampling
ber of samples and their allocation to the strata are
available (Cochran, 1977; Thompson, 1992). The Systematic sampling differs from the methods of
optimal allocation scheme depends on specification random sampling in terms of practical implementa-
of cost of sampling of the different strata. tion and in terms of coverage. Again, assume there
Example: Suppose that a pond could be catego- are N (¼ nk) units in the population. Then to sample
rized into three distinct compartments, mud, silt, n units, a unit is selected for sampling at random.
and gravel and that the population sizes in each Then, subsequent samples are taken at every k
compartment were as given as Table 4.2. Assuming units. Systematic sampling has a number of advan-
a sample fraction of 3 %, then nl indicates how many tages over simple random sampling, not the least of
cores would be taken from each compartment. The which is convenience of collection. In fact, systematic
steps for estimating the mean 137Cs activity and sampling stratifies the population into n strata, each
the variance of that mean are given in Table 4.2. A of which contains k units. However, unlike the
stratified sampling design provides a more precise stratified random sample, the sampled units may
estimate of the mean (variance ¼ 31.8 Bq2) than does occur at the same relative location in each stratum.
a simple random sample with the same number of A systematic sample is thus spread more evenly over
samples (variance ¼ 59.0 Bq2). Alternatively, the the population. In a spatial context such as the sedi-
stratified design provides the same precision with ment sampling problem, this would involve laying
fewer samples. For the example in Table 4.2, the out a regular grid of points, which are fixed distances
stratified design with n ¼ 39 samples has the same apart in both directions within a plane surface.
variance as a simple random sample with n ¼ 39 · Data from systematic designs are more difficult
(59.0/31.8) ¼ 72 samples. to analyse, especially in the most common case of
Table 4.2 Example for a stratified random sample estimation of contained activity.
137
Cs (Bq) in cores taken from the compartments of a pond
Strata Mud Gravel Silt
Nh 1000 200 100

nh 30 6 3
137
Cs (Bq) 500, 490, 480, 610, 550, 590, 630, 490, 450, 490, 470, 460, 485, 510 630, 590, 610
510, 540, 535, 550, 565, 570, 520, 545,
530, 600, 545, 550, 525, 510, 600, 485,
555, 560, 585, 590, 505, 520
Mean 137Cs (Bq) 547.8 477.5 610
Standard deviation, s 39.08 21.85 20.00
Mean 137Cs contained activity is (1000 · 547.8 þ 200 · 477.5 þ 100 · 610)/1300 ¼ 541.77 (Eq. (4.8))
Sampling variance of mean 137Cs contained activity is 5.642
For calculation of the sampling variance (Eq. (4.9)),

f1 ¼ f2 ¼ f3 ¼ 1 0.03 ¼ 0.97, n1 ¼ 30, n2¼ 6, n3 ¼ 3
s21 ¼ 39.082, s22 ¼ 21.852, s23 ¼ 20.002
N1/N ¼ 1000/1300, N2/N ¼ 200/1300 and N3/N ¼ 100/1300.
Note: If stratification is ignored, then the mean 137Cs contained activity is 541.79 Bq and the standard deviation of the mean is 7.68 Bq
(which is larger than the corresponding stratified value of 5.64 Bq).
41 AAPM Member Copy
a single systematic sample (Gilbert, 1987; Thompson 1

1992). Consider first the simpler case of multiple
systematic samples. For example, 137Cs activity in
pond sediment could be sampled using transects b b b b
a a a a
across the pond from one shoreline to the other.
Samples are collected every 5 m along the transect. 0
The locations of the transects are randomly chosen.
Each transect is a single systematic sample. Each b b b b
sample is identified by the transect number and
the location along the transect. Suppose there are
i ¼ 1, . . ., t systematic samples (i.e., transects in the
-1
pond example) and the yij is the jth observation on
the ith systematic sample for j ¼ 1, . . ., ni. The aver- 0 500 1000 1500
Pni of the samples from the ith transect is yi ¼
age
Figure 4.2. Bias resulting from systematic sampling at a
j¼1 yij =ni . The population mean is estimated by frequency that matches periodic variation in the sampled
Pt Pt Pni population. The vertical axis represents arbitrary variations
ni yi i¼1 j¼1 yij above and below a mean value, while the horizontal axis
ysy ¼ Pi¼1 t ¼ Pt : ð4:10Þ
represents distance in arbitrary units. Points labelled “a” are
i¼1 ni i¼1 ni
sampling locations where k equals the period; those labelled
“b” are sampling locations where k is and odd multiple of the
The estimator of the population mean from a sys-
half-period.
tematic sample is exactly the same as the estimator
for a simple random sample. It is more difficult to
estimate the variance.
The performance or reliability of a single system-
When there are multiple systematic samples, each
atic sample cannot always be easily evaluated as
with n observations, the variance of the mean can be
it depends on the properties of the population. If
estimated by
the population has a periodic variation, then the
1 t=T X t 2 effectiveness of the systematic sample depends on
Var ysy ¼ yi ysy , ð4:11Þ the value of k, which, if equal to the period (or an
tðt 1Þ i¼1 integral multiple thereof), results in every observa-
tion giving the same, or at least biased, value. In
where T is the number of transects in the population
Figure 4.2, k is equal to the period of the cyclical
(Gilbert, 1987; Thompson, 1992). The term in the
variation in the attribute of interest for those
numerator, 1 t/T, is a finite population correction
samples marked a. Every observation leads to the
factor that can be ignored if the number of transects
same value. For those samples marked b, k is a
in the systematic sample, t, is small relative to the
odd multiple of the half-period. Every systematic
number in the population. The variance formula
sample has a mean equal to the population mean,
has implications for the comparison of precision
so that the sampling variance of the mean is zero. If
between simple and systematic random sampling.
a periodic effect is suspected but not well known,
The variance of the population mean from a system-
then a simple random or stratified sample is pre-
atic sample only depends on the variability between
ferable to a systematic sample. Another remedy is
transect means; variability between observations
to add a number of randomly located points to the
on a transect is less unimportant. The variance
systematic sample (Stehman and Overton, 1994).
estimator for a multiple systematic sample is more
In practice, the problem of periodic variation is
complicated when ni, the number of observations
most common in agricultural systems, for example,
per systematic sample (transect), is not constant
in ploughed fields. Regular spatial periodicities
(Stehman and Salzer, 2000).
in nature are rare (Matern, 1986; Milne, 1959).
The variance estimator given by Eq. (4.11) can not
More details of these and other problems are given
be used in the common case of a single systematic
in Cochran (1977), Gilbert (1987), and Thompson
sample, i.e., when t ¼ 1. Many different estimators
(1992).
have been proposed (summarized in Cochran, 1977;
Examples. Three examples of situations where
Gilbert, 1987). If the population can be assumed to
systematic sampling might be used more effectively
be in random order, then the variance can be esti-
than simple random or stratified random sampling
mated as if the systematic sample were a simple
follow:
random sample, i.e., using Eq. (4.3). That equation
is not appropriate when the population has any form (1) If one wanted an estimate of the average
137
of non-random structure. Cs content in meat from commercial sheep
42 AAPM Member Copy
slaughtered in Ireland in 1992, a simple random transects over the pasture surface using simple
sampling scheme would be difficult to imple- surveying equipment. The investigator could
ment, because not all individual sheep could be walk along all the transects, stopping every
feasibly enumerated, and randomly selected 25 paces to collect a grass sample from a 1 m2
animals might not be available for sampling. A area whose southeast corner is located by the
more feasible scheme would be to systematically footstep imprint. The starting point could easily
take a meat sample from, say, every 100th ani- be randomized. Such a systematic sampling
mal slaughtered at commercial abattoirs during effort could, depending on the size of the
the year 1992. A random selection of one of the pasture and number of samples taken, be
first 100 sheep slaughtered, would establish completed within a few hours.
the random starting point. Although estimation of the average and total are
(2) Suppose the research question was: ‘What is
the most common objectives for a sampling cam-
the average 3H volumetric activity density in
paign, there are other quantities that are of interest
a stream at a point 1 km downstream from a
in the population and in subsequent sections their
nuclear power plant during the month of May,
estimation is discussed. The basic sampling designs
1998?’ This question entails both a spatial and
will, however, remain the same.
temporal dimension. One could theoretically
sample water from the stream at random points
along a line perpendicular to the direction
of flow, and also take samples once per day, at 4.3 PROPORTION
times that are randomly chosen. However, such
4.3.1 Introduction
a random sampling scheme might not be feasi-
ble or cost-effective. It might be more conve- Sometimes, there is a need to estimate the propor-
nient to sample the stream at regular intervals tion of units in a population that possess a particular
along the line perpendicular to the flow, and attribute or that fall into a defined class. The
to sample daily at a regularly specified time. sampling designs already presented can be used for
Before implementing such a scheme, it would these types of problems, and again, the important
be important to verify that regular spatial and five-step approach remains unchanged regardless of
temporal patterns in the 3H activity density, the problem.
which could clearly bias the sampling, did not Environmental examples involving proportions
occur. For example, if reactor discharges include estimation of the proportion of the total
occurred in pulses at a regular time of day, area in which the activity density of a radionuclide
taking water samples at specified times could in soil exceeds a specified level, or, for example, the
easily bias the results in either direction. proportion of the fish population from the eastern
In practice, continuous water samplers which Irish Sea whose 239Pu activity densities lie above a
physically integrate small samples over a given specified level, or the proportion of birds around a
period of time would provide more representa- nuclear facility whose whole-body 137Cs activity
tive estimates than would sampling at the exceeds a specified level.
same time each day.
(3) A final example question might be: ‘At 2 days 4.3.2 Simple random sampling
after an accidental 131I release from a nuclear-
As before, a target population of N units is assumed,
fuel reprocessing facility, what is the average
from which n samples are taken for measurement.
content of 131I in the blades of grass in a pasture
Then, to estimate the population proportion, P, the
being grazed by dairy cows?’ In a case like this,
obvious estimate is the sample proportion, p, where
there might be great urgency to obtain an esti-
from a sample of size n, m units are observed that
mate, so that sound management decisions can
fall into the defined class
be made. One could certainly divide the pasture
up into N sampling units of 1 m2, and then m
p¼ , ð4:12Þ
randomly choose n of those units for sampling. n
However, this would require enumeration,
selection, and physically locating each of the and
n units for sampling, and this might require ð N nÞ
more time than permitted by the management Varð pÞ ¼ pq, ð4:13Þ
ðn 1ÞN
decision-makers. A more efficient alternative
systematic scheme might be to establish a num- Where, Var(p) is the sampling variance and
ber of parallel, evenly spaced (e.g., 25 paces) q ¼ 1 p. When N is very large relative to n,
43 AAPM Member Copy
Eq. (4.13) simplifies to accident in the Ukraine. Perhaps there are four
pq main fish species in the lake that are routinely
Varð pÞ ¼ : ð4:14Þ caught and consumed by sport fishermen. It is likely
n1
that different methods of fishing are typically used
As for the population mean, these formulae can for the different fish species. Therefore, it would be
also be used to determine the sample size require- reasonable to sample these four species using the
ment where one needs to specify the difference (d) methods typically used by the sport fishermen. Rod
to be detected either relative to a baseline value or and reel methods likely discriminate according to
between two population proportions, and the risk lures or bait used, and to fish size, food habits, and
(probability a) of making a mistake, i.e., aggressiveness. Netting methods can discriminate,
Probabilityðdeclaring a difference d depending on mesh size, location of placement, etc.
Sampling, therefore, might be stratified by l ¼ 4
when d ¼ 0Þ ¼ a: ð4:15Þ fish species and the methods typically used to sam-
Then, on the basis of a simple random sample, ple those individual species. Potential fish speci-
mens might be available from fishermen and/or
t2 PQ=d2 from a targeted sampling campaign. A sample of
n¼ 2 , ð4:16Þ
1 þ N1 t dPQ 1 nl fish could be randomly chosen from each of the
2
l species of fish harvested for 137Cs analysis. The
where P is the population proportion, Q is 1 P actual harvest may well not be a random sample of
and t is the statistic read from standard tables all fish in the lake, but the assumption could be
(Appendix 2). It is possible to make use of approxi- made that the harvest is representative of the sub-
mations to this formula, for example, if N is very population of fish that people consume. The estimate
large then one can approximate n by n0 pl would be the ratio of fish in stratum l exceeding
the guideline of xBq kg1 to the total number of
t2 pq fish assayed. The ratio Nl/N could be reasonably
n0 ¼ : ð4:17Þ
d2 estimated from a survey of fishermen to estimate
This approximation is appropriate when n0/N is the relative proportions of the various fish species
very small. actually consumed.
4.3.3 Stratified sampling for proportions 4.4 ESTIMATION OF A PERCENTILE

One can also make use of stratified random sampl- Percentiles of the distribution are often of regulatory
ing to estimate the population proportion. Again, interest, because in many situations the regulations
assume that we have l strata, and that the pro- may be specified in terms of finding the level above
portion in the class of interest in the stratum is (or below) which a fixed percentage or proportion of
Pl ¼ Ml/Nl. The estimate is pl ¼ ml/nl and the pro- the population occurs. This is the inverse of the
portion in the whole population, pst, is the weighted problem discussed in Section 4.3 in which the pro-
average of the sample proportions. portion exceeding a given level was estimated; now
X Nl p l the proportion is specified and the level is estimated.
pst ¼ : In general terms, the bth percentile of a distribution
N
is the value d, below which b percentage of the popu-
The variance (Var) is lation lie. In this section, we define b and attempt to
1 X 2 Pl Ql estimate the value for d. For example, the 95th per-
Varðpst Þ ¼ 2
Nl ðNl nl Þ : ð4:19Þ centile for 137Cs in fish from a given lake might be
N ðNl 1Þnl
340 Bq kg1, meaning that 95 % of the fish contain
One may calculate the numbers of samples <340 Bq kg1, and that 5 % exceed this value.
required to achieve a specified level of confidence Estimation of the maximum or the minimum goes
using the same approach as described earlier but beyond what can be covered in this introduct-
this time using the appropriate formula for the ory report. The maximum and minimum are the
variance (and estimated standard error) for the extremes of the distribution and therefore must be
proportion. dealt with using extreme-value theory (Coles, 2001).
Example. A hypothetical example of estimating Percentiles can be estimated in two different
a proportion based on stratified sampling might ways. If the distribution can be assumed to be a
involve the proportion of edible fish in a Swedish specific mathematical form, e.g., normal, the per-
lake that exceed a dietary guideline (xBq kg1 of centiles can be estimated from any sample design
fish flesh) for 137Cs, following the Chernobyl from the estimated mean and estimated standard
44 AAPM Member Copy
deviation (Gilbert, 1987). If no distribution is design will usually focus on estimating the mean
assumed, a non-parametric estimator (one that ratio, and some measure of the precision of that
does not assume a specific distribution or shape) estimate (e.g., the sampling variance). The distribu-
can be used if there are sufficient data (Cochran, tion shape of a parameter will also need estimation
1977). if it is to be used in a stochastic model.
Example. A hypothetical example of this type of The concentration ratio represents the expected
problem is the following. Suppose that in the wake of ratio of the activity density of a radionuclide in a
the Chernobyl accident, there was interest in esti- receptor compartment to that in the donor compart-
mating the committed thyroid dose exceeding those ment (ICRU, 2001). A more careful definition of the
received by 95 % of the children in the age range of coefficient is helpful because the detailed defini-
one to five years living in Belarus at the time of the tion influences the sampling plan and the final inter-
accident. An alternative way of phrasing this is: pretation. For example, the plant-to-soil 137Cs
‘What is the thyroid dose that is lower than that concentration ratio is defined as the ratio of the
received by 5 % of these children?’ In this case, it average mass activity density (Bq kg1) of 137Cs in
would likely not be feasible to randomly sample and plant material to the average mass activity density
examine all such children in Belarus. Furthermore, (Bq kg1) of 137Cs in the surrounding soil (ICRU,
the thyroid dose among children would vary greatly, 2001). The plant-to-soil aggregated transfer coeffi-
depending mostly on the specific region within cient is defined as the ratio of the average mass
Belarus, the specific age and food consumption pat- activity density (Bq kg1) of 137Cs in plant material
terns of any child, and the source of milk. This might to the average areal activity density (Bq m2) of
137
suggest a stratified design in which specific regions Cs in the surrounding soil (ICRU, 2001). Either
(perhaps cantons), and certain milk consumption ratio can be estimated from two separate samples,
patterns are used to form individual sampling one estimating the mean activity density in plants
strata. Within a stratum, a random sample of chil- and one estimating the mean activity density in
dren might be selected for assay of 131I content of the soil. However, the variability in these estimates
the thyroid gland, using a whole-body counter or a may be quite large. Note, for example, the wide range
hand-held radiation detection device. Assuming of plant/soil Cr values in Table VI (IAEA, 1994).
proper calibration of the detection equipment and
knowing the date of measurement and other essen-
4.5.2 Sampling considerations
tial information, one could estimate the absorbed
dose to the thyroid for each child examined. A few of the many biological and physical factors
Once the committed dose estimates were avail- that may contribute to variability in the plant/soil
able, the formulas relative to stratified sampling in concentration ratio for 137Cs include:
Section 4.2 could be employed to estimate the mean
the species of plants,
dose and the variance of the doses. If dose can be
the depth distribution of plant roots,
assumed to be normally distributed, the 95th
the depth distribution of 137Cs in the soil,
percentile estimate of dose could then be estimated
the within-plot spatial distribution of 137Cs in the
by the mean dose þ 1.69 standard deviations, or
soil,
y þ 1:69s. Note that this formula uses the standard
the within-plot spatial distribution of plants or
deviation (not the standard error of y). The value 137
Cs in plants.
1.69 is the t value such that the probability that the
random variable exceeds this value is 0.05. Variability induced by the first three factors can
be reduced by careful definition of the appropriate
population (e.g., a particular species of plant) and by
4.5 RATIOS specification of data collection methods (e.g., using
knowledge of the depth distribution of plant roots to
4.5.1 General principles
specify a particular depth from which to collect soil
Many coefficients or model parameters used in samples). Variability induced by the last two factors
radioecology are estimated as ratios of two quanti- can be reduced by using a paired-sampling design.
ties. These include concentration ratios, Cr, the In a paired-sampling design, each plant sample
resuspension ratio, K, and the aggregated transfer is paired with a sample of the surrounding soil, and
coefficient, Cag (ICRU, 2001). Although some therefore an observed concentration ratio can be
parameter values are physical constants (e.g., the calculated for that pair of plant and soil samples.
physical half life of a radioisotope), the values of If sampling locations where pairs of plant and soil
many parameters need to be estimated by environ- samples are to be taken are chosen using one of the
mental sampling of two quantities. A sampling sampling designs in Sections 3 or 4, the appropriate
45 AAPM Member Copy
formulas can be used to estimate the mean con- by the average log di. This estimate has a sampling
centration ratio and its precision. The stochastic dis- variance equal to
tribution of concentration ratios can be estimated
from the distribution of observed concentration s2es þ s2ep
VarC~r ¼ : ð4:22Þ
ratios, and the assumption of proportionality, n
which underlies the concept of a concentration This variance can be estimated by Var log di/n.
ratio, can be evaluated with a plot of plant activity Note that such pairing of soil and plant samples
density against the soil activity density. eliminates the sampling variance associated with
The soil and plant activity densities are assumed location, su2, therefore reducing the overall sampling
to have some spatial variability within the popula- variance.
tion of interest. In addition, both plant and soil activ-
ity densities are measured with some degree of 4.5.4 Examples
uncertainty, due to counting and other random
To illustrate the difference in precision between
laboratory uncertainties. The reduction in variance
the two sampling schemes, consider estimating
achieved by a paired-sampling design depends on
the plant-to-soil 137Cs concentration ratio in Irish
the magnitudes of the spatial variance in the soil
137 heath. McGee et al. (1995) report within-plot coeffi-
Cs, the measurement variances for plant and
cients of variation for 137Cs in soils and selected
soil 137Cs, and the covariance between plant and
plant species in 3600 m2 plots. If variability between
soil values. The potential reduction in variance
plant samples and between soil samples follows a
from paired sampling can be illustrated with a
log-normal distribution, the log-normal variance
simple model in which both the activity density in
can be calculated from the coefficient of variation
plants and the activity density in the soil have
(Cvar) by s2 ¼ ln (C2var þ 1) (Aitchison and Brown,
log-normal distributions with variances s2u for the
1957). If counting and other measurement uncer-
spatial variation in soil activity density, s2es for
tainties have a Cvar of 5 %, the equivalent log-normal
the measurement variance in soil activity density,
variance is 0.0025. The reported within-plot Cvar of
and s2ep for the measurement variance in plant
20 % for Juncus squarrosus is equivalent to a log-
activity density.
normal variance of 0.0392. This value includes
within-plot spatial variation and measurement
4.5.3 Comparison of unpaired and paired
uncertainties, so the spatial component of variation
sampling
in Juncus squarrosus can be estimated by the differ-
Consider an unpaired design, in which ns samples ence: 0.0392 0.0025 ¼ 0.037. If the concentration
of soil and np samples of plant material are each ratio is estimated using an unpaired design with 10
collected from randomly chosen, unrelated places in randomly chosen plant samples and 10 randomly
the study area. Log-transformed mean activity chosen soil samples, the sampling variance of the
densities can be separately calculated from the soil concentration ratio is 0.0078, which is equivalent to
and plant observations. The log (log10) estimated a coefficient of variation of 8.8 %. If a paired design
concentration ratio, C^r , is calculated by the differ- is used, the sampling variation of the concentra-
ence in mean log activity densities. This estimate tion ratio is 0.0005, 1/15 of the variance from
has a sampling variance equal to the unpaired design. The sampling variance in the
2 3 paired design is equivalent to a Cvar of 2.2 %. The
2 2

s2u þ s2ep
s þ s improvement from use of a paired design is large in
VarC~r ¼ u es
þ4 5: ð4:20Þ this case because of the large spatial component to
ns np
the within-plot variation. The improvement would
If ns ¼ np ¼ n, Eq. (4.20) simplifies to be less if the measurement variances were larger or
the spatial variation were smaller.
2s2u þ s2es þ s2ep
VarC~r ¼ : ð4:21Þ
n 4.5.5 Other considerations
This variance can be estimated by (Var log Ams þ The log-normal model, although likely to be the most
Var log Amp)/n, where Ams is the soil activity density common model encountered with field sampling for
and Amp is the plant activity density. radionuclides (Brisbin et al., 1974; Horton et al.,
In a paired design, a soil sample and plant sample 1980; Schubert et al., 1967), is not the only possible
are taken at n randomly selected locations. Hence, model for such data (Apt, 1976). Procedures for esti-
the difference, d, in log activity densities can be mating the concentration ratio and its sampling
calculated for each location: log di ¼ log Amp variance for other models are given by Gilbert and
log Ams. The log concentration ratio is estimated Simpson (1983). Although the details of the variance
46 AAPM Member Copy
computations are different for different models, the 4.6.1 Two-stage sampling
expectation that a paired design leads to a smaller
An application of two-stage sampling might arise
expected variance holds for all models.
from collection of a series of large individual samples
The other new consideration in sampling to
(e.g., soil), and from each large sample some smaller
estimate ratios is that deliberate selection of sites
aliquot samples are selected for actual analysis.
with large soil activity densities can improve the
This might be required to achieve a convenient
precision of the ratio. Again consider the paired
counting geometry, to reduce the need for large
log-normal model used above. The sampling vari-
amounts of chemical reagents for radiochemical
ance of the estimated concentration ratio depends
separation, and so on. The large soil samples
on the measurement variances for the log-trans-
would likely be collected at random. This idea
formed soil and plant activity densities. If those
might also apply in vegetation studies, where large
activity densities are sufficiently high, or the back-
bulk samples are randomly harvested, and then
ground count rate is precisely known, then those
smaller aliquots are taken from each bulk sample
measurement variances are approximated by
for analysis.
1
This introduces further variation, particularly if
Var ln Ampi Ampi t2p Np , ð4:23Þ
the bulk sample is not itself homogeneous. In this
and situation, assume N (large soil samples or bulk plant
1 material) of the population can be subdivided into
Varðln Amsi Þ Amsi t2s Ns , ð4:24Þ a number of smaller elements (say M). One first
selects a sample of primary units (n from N), then a
where subscripts p and s refer to plant and soil,
sample of elements (small soil or plant sample) from
respectively.
each chosen primary unit (m from M) is selected.
As the expected plant or soil activity density
Assume in this simplest case that each primary
(Amp or Ams) increases, the variance of the log-
unit has the same number of elements. The sam-
transformed activity density decreases. Hence, the
pling at each of the two stages could be carried out
variance of the estimated concentration ratio can be
at random.
reduced by deliberately choosing sites with high
Example. An application of two-stage sampling
expected plant and soil activities. If the log-normal
might result from the question: ‘What is the average
model is appropriate, i.e., if the plant activity density 90
Sr content from global fallout in alfalfa hay grown
is proportional to the soil activity density across
in 1965 on a specific farm?’ Alfalfa hay is typically
the appropriate range of soil activity densities, then
harvested by machine on a farm-by-farm basis at
the estimated log-transformed concentration ratio
the end of each growing season, and a separate
is unbiased, despite the deliberate selection of
machine is used to collect the mowed hay and bundle
high-activity sites. The only assumption is that
it into individual bales, each of which might
the observed log-transformed difference is a random
weigh about 35 kg. After a given harvest, N
sample from the population of all possible differ-
bales could feasibly be numbered and a random sam-
ences. This is quite different from the assumption
ple of n bales selected for analysis. A 35 kg bale
that the observed soil (or plant) activity density is a
would be too large to process in its entirety for 90Sr
random sample from the population of all possible
analysis, but processing of 0.5 kg aliquot samples
soil (or plant) activities.
would be feasible, so a sample of m aliquots is ran-
There is an inherent trade-off in the strategy of
domly selected from each of the possible M ¼ 35
deliberately choosing high-activity sites to estimate
kg/0.5 kg or 70 units within each bale. In this exam-
the concentration ratio. As sampling variation in
ple, analysis of the data would permit estimates of
the concentration ratio is reduced, the concentration
within-bale variance, as well as between-bale
ratio is better estimated. However, the average soil
variance.
activity density and the average plant activity
density are more poorly estimated. If sites of high
4.6.2 Double sampling
activity are deliberately selected, the average
observed soil activity is likely to overestimate the Double sampling involves measurement of one
true mean soil activity. characteristic of a population sample that can be
mathematically related to the primary characteris-
tic of interest. This is usually done in cases where
4.6 OTHER SAMPLING SCHEMES
it is difficult or expensive to measure large numbers
Alternative sampling methods that might advanta- of samples for the primary attribute of interest,
geously apply to specific environmental problems but where a related characteristic can be feas-
are briefly described in this section. ibly measured in a large number of samples. In
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Section 3.2.2.7, the example of measuring 241Am by 4.6.3 Quadrat and line-transect sampling
gamma-ray spectroscopy to infer activity densities of
Quadrat (a defined area, usually <1 m2, in which
the primary radionuclide of interest, 239,240Pu, was
sampling is conducted) and line-transect sampling
described.
designs are most often used in a spatial context and
Another example might involve the use of a por-
can be operated in both random and systematic
table high-purity germanium (HPGe) detection sys-
mode (Cressie, 1993). Estimation of the spatial
tem to measure the fluence rate of 137Cs photons
population average or mean, the proportion, and a
emanating from undisturbed soil, with the end goal
percentile of the distribution may make use of these
to estimate the areal activity density (Bq m2) of
137 designs, which are further considered in a spatial
Cs deposited after a contaminating event. The
context in Section 5.
advantage of the portable HPGe detection system is
that a fairly large land area can be surveyed rela-
tively rapidly, with minimal cost, using a random or
systematic sampling design. However, because the 4.7 GENERAL COMMENTS
detection system integrates over a relatively large This section of the report has focused on classical
area and yet is biased by soil closest to the detector, sampling designs where the stated objectives involve
and because such a system does not define the depth estimation of the most commonly used statistical
distribution of radioactivity in soil, which may be quantities such as means, proportions, percentiles
spatially variable and which in turn affects the and ratios. Specific sampling methods have been
response of the detector, there is a need to do some described in detail, and those illustrated include
physical soil sampling. Soil cores might be sampled simple random, stratified random, and systematic
randomly or systematically across n locations for sampling. Other less widely used sampling schemes
which the HPGe count rates are recorded. After veri- have also been briefly described. More than one
fication that the cores are sampled sufficiently deep sampling design may be appropriate for a stated
to contain all the 137Cs (20 cm is usually adequate), objective and certain differences as a result of the
the total 137Cs activity (Bq) is measured in each sampling scheme chosen are described.
core, then divided by the area of the core (m2) to get Appropriate formulas with references to more
the areal activity (Aa) density for a location. Then detailed descriptions and examples are provided.
the relationship between the HPGe count rate (Rc) Specific results for estimation of ratios are given,
and Aa is estimated. In the simplest case, the count these being of frequent importance in radioecology
rate and Aa might be linearly related such that (e.g., estimation of the concentration ratio). The
Aa ¼ aRc þ c, ð4:25Þ often explicitly spatial nature of radioecological sam-
pling has been ignored, but this aspect is considered
where a and c are statistically fitted constants. This in Section 5. The practical issues of sampling design,
relationship can now be used to estimate Aa at each missing data, below detection limit observations,
location where Rc is measured, which effectively and quality assurance were not revisited in this
increases the sample size and lowers the total cost section, as general discussion of these topics was
and effort of the study. covered in Section 3.

48 AAPM Member Copy
Journal of the ICRU Vol 6 No 1 (2006) Report 75 doi:10.1093/jicro/ndl010
5 SAMPLING TO ESTIMATE SPATIAL PATTERN
5.1 INTRODUCTION small relative to the scale of spatial correlation and

the size of the area of interest.
In many environmental contexts, plants, animals,
Management of spatial data can be troublesome
and abiotic media have a spatial structure. Pairs of
because the data sets can be large. A geographical
objects, e.g., plants, animals, or soil samples, that
information system (GIS) is a set of computer tools
are close together are usually more similar to each
for collecting, storing, retrieving at will, as well as
other than are other pairs that are farther apart.
transforming and displaying spatial data. GIS is an
Relatedness between two samples can be measured
important tool in radioecology, for which the ability
by the correlation in the quantity of interest, e.g.,
to work with the spatial properties of the radio-
their activity density. The distance between them
nuclides and the spatial dimension of the sampling
can be measured in one dimension if samples are
is crucial. Numerous software packages are avail-
taken along a single transect, or in two dimensions
able; some combine data management with spatial
if samples are taken over an area, or in three dimen-
analysis tools (such as variogram estimation and
sions if samples are taken at more than one depth
kriging, see Section 5.6). Further information on
across an area. Spatial-sampling methods use the
GIS can be obtained from specialized texts, including
possible relationship between nearby sampling
Burrough and McDonnell (1998) and Heywood
units to better estimate the quantities of interest.
et al. (2002).
In the definition of the sampling unit, one must
The spatial perspective has not been historically
also pay attention to its spatial dimension, as this
prominent in radioecological studies, but methods
may prove to be a significant factor in subsequent
for analysis for continuous index spatial data
data analysis and statistical inference.
(Case 1 above), such as kriging, are being used with
In radioecology, spatial data usually fall into one
increasing frequency. Concepts like spatial scale,
of two different general cases:
traditional (design-based) spatial sampling schemes
Case 1: We assume that there is an attribute that
(Cox et al., 1997), and model-based or geostatistical
is spatially continuous, where in principle it is
methods for spatial data are discussed below.
possible to measure the attribute at any location
defined by coordinates (x, y) over the domain or
5.1.1 Spatial structure: general comments
area of interest. The attribute is usually assumed
to have a continuous random distribution, but this The spatial structure of an investigation is used to
is not necessary. Technically, this case is called a describe how variability and similarity in the attri-
continuous index process (Cressie, 1993). This case bute of interest change as a function of distance
would generally be appropriate for radionuclides in and spacing of the sampling units. It has three
soil, water, and air. aspects, namely, the extent of the area being
Case 2: The attribute is not continuous through described, the ‘grain’, i.e., the size of the sampling
space; it exists and can be measured only at specific unit, and the sample spacing frequency. Any state-
locations. For example, consider 137Cs concentra- ments about spatial structure are specific to the area
tions in coconut milk. It can only be measured at being described. A larger or smaller area may have a
locations of coconut palms. Technically, this case is different spatial structure. The size of the sampling
called a spatial lattice process (Cressie, 1993). There unit influences the expected variability between
are specialized techniques, e.g., Markov random units, as described in Section 3.4 concerning individ-
field models, for the analysis of lattice processes, ual sample volume. The spacing between samples
but these are not commonly used. Instead, these influences the spatial structure that can be detected.
data are treated as if the attribute was spatially Consider a soil sampling situation, designed to
continuous. This approximation is reasonable if explore the levels of spatial variation in weapons
the distance between measurement locations is fallout radionuclides in soil of coral atolls.

A sampling unit is defined to be a 38 mm diameter the spatial dimension of the sampling unit should
soil core. Consider nine such cores collected at ran- reflect the way in which the target population is
dom within an area of 1 m2, where a Cvar of 0.30 was effectively sampled. For example, animals will
observed for the nine samples for 137Cs. This experi- range over their home territory and thus integrate
ment provides information about small-scale spatial their radionuclide intake over the range or when
variation within that 1 m2 area. A second study considering doses to man from radionuclide deposi-
might use a sampling unit of larger dimension (e.g., tion, the appropriate spatial sampling unit might
a 4 m2 area) to sample from an area of 10,000 m2. be the plant (e.g., cabbages that are consumed
This second study would ask about variation over individually) or a field (e.g., wheat or milk that
a larger spatial scale. A third study might use an are physically pooled before consumption and thus
even larger sampling unit (e.g., individual islands) reflect characteristics of a larger area).
to study a very large area. If the environment is For both continuous and discrete sampling media,
heterogeneous at the moderate spatial scale in the sampling with too small a spatial dimension may
second study, perhaps because 137Cs in the soil cores over-estimate meaningful variation or pattern.
is influenced by soil type and vegetation cover which Sampling with too large a spatial dimension may
vary considerably within the sampling area, then hide meaningful variation. Practicality and feasibil-
these three studies provide quite different descrip- ity also affect the optimal sampling design. Although
tions of the spatial pattern and variability. The small sampling grids and sampling intensity may be
scale study might find no spatial pattern, i.e., no prescribed on statistical grounds according to some
correlation between nearby samples, within the analysis of optimality, the sampling design must
1 m2 area. The intermediate scale study might find also be practical. For example, during a nuclear inci-
a strong spatial pattern, because nearby samples dent some compromise must be reached between the
are from the same soil type and vegetation cover. ideal sample coverage to provide a reliable pattern
The large scale study will identify a different spatial of land contamination, and the need to gather sam-
pattern that depends on the large scale geographic ples as rapidly as possible. A rapid, initial sampling
variation between islands. If there were only one can provide some information, but the information
sample per island, the large scale study could not might represent only a restricted segment of the
detect the moderate scale pattern due to vegetation population. The difficulty then arises of extrapolat-
and soil characteristics within an island. ing such information to the total population. If such
The extent of the area to be sampled defines the sub-sampling is logistically necessary, it is essential
population for which inferences will be made. This for the circumstances to be fully reported. Like all
will be defined by the context and purpose of the sampling, inferences with respect to the total area
study. The physical area of the study could extend should then take into account prior knowledge that
from locating hot particles on a leaf to mapping may or may not support the assumption that non-
Chernobyl fallout throughout Europe. The domain sampled areas are similar to sampled areas.
of the study may be modified if some national or
political boundaries have nothing to do with physi-
5.1.2 Sampling objectives
cal, chemical, or biological processes. The bound-
aries and limitations of the area to be sampled Specific sampling objectives that arise in the spatial
must be made clear and explicit. context are usually similar to those described earlier
For sampling of continuous media such as soil, (see Section 3.1.1), but with added consideration of
air, or water, the size of the sampling unit should area, for example, estimation of average, maximum
be chosen to average out uninformative small-scale or other percentile of the distribution of activity over
variation and to be meaningful on the scale of the a specified area, or estimation of the contained
information to be mapped. The size of the sampling activity or inventory within an area (or volume).
unit is especially important when reporting activity Other objectives include mapping the radionuclide
density for a heterogeneous material, e.g., one that distribution over an area, estimating the percentage
contains individual hot particles. The between- of an area that exceeds a given level and mapp-
sample variance in activity density is inversely ing these locations, estimating the scale of spatial
related to the sample size. Because of the larger variation, detection of hot spots, and estimation of
variance, the maximum observed activity density is a trend over an area. These are only possible
likely to increase as the sample size is reduced with spatially referenced data. Finally, on the basis
(Campbell, 1993). of observations made using a spatial design, one
For sampling of discrete media such as plants might also wish to predict levels at un-sampled
or animals, the spatial dimension is also crucial. (target) locations using a spatial interpolation
For some purposes, for example, dose estimation, scheme based on the observed measurements.
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SAMPLING TO ESTIMATE SPATIAL PATTERN
5.1.3 The sampling approach of Section 3 of samples required for the development of reli-
applied to spatial data able map of the 239Pu distribution. Site-specific
information, including meteorological conditions,
In Section 3, the five essential steps to establish a
topography, and vegetation cover, is essential for
successful sampling program were presented. Here,
development of an effective sampling design. It is
the first four steps are reviewed when applied to a
frequently the case that, without such knowledge,
spatial sampling problem.
pilot surveys may be required to define any pre-
Step 1 is to define the study objectives. Many of ferred directions of transport or other patterns. The
these (e.g., mapping) are spatially explicit. pilot survey could then be used to define the main
Step 2 is to define the population, including the sampling protocol. The mapping objectives could
spatial extent of the area or region under study. become more complex, for example, defining a
Step 3 is to summarize the environmental con- boundary beyond which the plutonium concentra-
text. This involves knowledge about the source tion falls below a given level, predicting 239Pu con-
and behavior of the radionuclide and the environ- centration at locations not sampled, and detecting
ment, that may be presented in the form of and mapping any hotspots.
maps describing attributes of the region, such as In this particular case, early studies (e.g., Krey
soil type or land use. Some of these secondary and Hardy, 1970; Little and Whicker, 1978; Little
attributes, such as soil type, water content, salin- et al., 1980) provided strong indications that the
239
ity, and plant type, may vary over the region of Pu was dispersed by winds toward the east and
interest, which may create spatial heterogeneity southeast from the original source area and that
and pattern in the attribute of interest. areal activity densities (Aa) declined rapidly with
Step 4 is to select a sampling design and sampling distance from the source. This led to two later inves-
unit. It is important to recognize that the sam- tigations having the objective of mapping the 239Pu
pling design also has a spatial dimension and that contamination. A study by Webb et al. (1997) devel-
the sampling unit to be used will also be in part oped a model-based sampling design utilizing four
determined by the way the population is to be radial transects extending from the source, with
sampled, e.g., using a soil corer having a diameter increased sampling frequency near the source,
of 10 cm, or where the grass is to be cropped where Aa values were expected to be higher. The
within a quadrat of a specified area, for example, data led to a model that predicted Aa as a function
1 m2. The sampling support (spacing and fre- of distance and direction from the source. A second
quency of samples) is partly determined by prac- investigation by Litaor and Allen (1996) used data
tical feasibility, but too fine a support can on 241Am and 239Pu in soil from several studies to
introduce extra variation, while too large a sup- develop a map of 241Am and hence 239Pu isopleths,
port may obscure meaningful variation. based on geostatistical methods (see Section 5.6).
5.2.2 Mapping using spatially

5.2 EXAMPLES OF THE SAMPLING
integrated data
APPROACH
A hypothetical objective might be to map the deposi-
The general principles and objectives described in
tion pattern of 137Cs from the Chernobyl accident
the previous section can be illustrated using four
over southwest Scotland using airborne gamma
examples:
detectors (Sanderson and Scott, 2001). In this exam-
ple, the target area was a region of Scotland with an
5.2.1 Mapping plutonium distribution over
approximate area of 130 km2. The environmental
a region
context is that, at the time of the Chernobyl cloud
An example objective might be mapping the distri- passing over the UK, rain storms also passed over
bution of 239Pu in a given area around the Rocky the area, and the interaction between the cloud of
Flats Environmental Technology Site in Colorado, radioactivity and rain resulted in an extremely pat-
USA. The 239Pu source in this case was storage chy deposition of radionuclides. The main transport
drums, and the primary dispersal/transport pro- process was therefore wet deposition, which was
cesses were assumed to be wind and water erosion, affected by the topography of the area, with higher
due to the strong association of this radionuclide rainfall, and thus enhanced deposition, expected in
with soil particles (Little et al., 1980). The area is areas at higher elevations. The technique used to
therefore defined by the site boundaries and possibly map the fallout was airborne gamma spectrometry,
beyond. The spatial design problem raises the issues with specified operating conditions (helicopter speed,
of where to collect soil samples and the numbers altitude, and integration time). A single observation
51 AAPM Member Copy
was an integrated measure corresponding to a the actual sampling locations. Therefore, it is helpful
sampling unit of an approximate area of 10,000 m2. to estimate this before choosing a sampling design.
The measurement was total counts per unit time in On Rongelap, soil was sampled using a systematic
a specific energy window, which was converted to grid encompassing most of the island. One design
units of activity density based on a separate invest- issue is the spacing between grid lines. This repre-
igation. In this example, the spatial dimension of sents a compromise between two objectives: map-
the sample unit was significant, and it is conceiv- ping requires that samples be taken across the
able that with sufficient resources, the entire area entire island; estimating the small-scale spatial pat-
could be mapped. However, more typically with tern requires at least some pairs of samples to be
limited resources, the sampling design involves the taken in close proximity. One practical solution is to
pre-definition of the flight pattern, including line sample the entire island using a relatively widely
spacing and orientation over the area. spaced grid. Then, the small-scale variability can
An alternative scheme for mapping the fallout be measured by extensively surveying randomly
might involve the use of ground level in situ instru- chosen small areas using a second systematic grid
ments, where the area of integration is typically of with a very small spacing between grid lines. This
the order of 100 m2, depending on the instrument latter, more detailed, survey is used to estimate
type and design, size, and its position above the small-scale variation in the fallout deposition
surface. The relevant problem in this case is pattern.
the number and location of sites at which to place This example introduces the idea of modifying
the instrument. For this situation, the sample sampling schemes for mapping purposes by supple-
dimension is insignificant in comparison to the menting a regular grid with a small number of
area to be mapped. Further, it is also an option to randomly placed clusters of closely spaced sampling
collect soil cores and vegetation samples, whose points to provide more information about small-
spatial structure may be much smaller (a corer scale variation. There are also sample allocation
might have diameter of about 10 cm). Thus ground schemes in which new sampling points are focused
level in situ measurements and soil sampling can on areas of interest identified in the previous
only provide data that directly represents a very sampling stage (Thompson and Seber, 1996).
small fraction of the total area.
In the use of all three sampling tools, the objective
5.2.4 Identifying vulnerable land areas
is a map of 137Cs deposition, but the relation of the
spatial support of the sampling unit to the spatial In this final example, the objective might be to char-
extent stated in the objective is very important. It acterize and possibly map areas that are particularly
is clear that using in situ or soil sampling, it is vulnerable to radioactive contamination, for exam-
impracticable to attempt to map a large area since ple, areas of nutrient-poor soil and minimum plant
the sampling fraction over the area to be mapped biomass that can lead to unusually high levels
is likely to be extremely small. On the other hand, of certain radionuclides in food products or game
using an airborne gamma spectroscopy system, and fish (Wright et al., 1998). This might require
the small-scale variation (of the order of metres) identification of areas in which certain amounts of
is unobservable. In this problem, the concept of deposition can lead to specified intervention levels
stratification of the sampling design might increase for radionuclides such as 137Cs, 90Sr, and 131I in food
the efficiency of effort. products being exceeded.
The assessment of land-area vulnerability in this
context requires knowledge of numerous transport
5.2.3 Estimating the scale of spatial
parameters for different radionuclides in specific
variability
climatic-soil-vegetation types that occur within the
Consider mapping the distribution of weapons test- spatial domain of interest. Such parameters might
ing fallout on the island of Rongelap in the central include, for example, expected rainfall, soil and
Pacific Ocean (NAS/NRC (1994) Committee on Radio- vegetation attributes, distribution coefficients (the
logical Safety in the Marshall Islands, 1994; Diggle mass activity density in soil particulates per unit
et al., 1998). Mapping requires predicting values at mass activity density in soil water), aggregated
unmeasured locations. Knowledge of the structure of transfer coefficients (the mass activity density in
spatial variability can improve these predictions. plant or animal tissues per unit of deposition), or
The spatial correlation reveals information on how the feed transfer coefficient (the activity density
samples taken close together are related. Spatial in a food product like milk, meat or eggs per unit
variability not only affects how many samples are of daily ingestion by the food-producing animal).
to be taken, but also the sample spacing and thus Vulnerability is also affected by the expected use
52 AAPM Member Copy
of the area for producing food, food distribution response to sudden changes in environmental
patterns, numbers of people involved, and so on. forcing variables (e.g., changes in bedrock geology).
Spatial sampling and analysis are often required to
estimate these and other parameters in a spatial 5.3.3 Periodicity
context.
Given an established intervention level in milk Periodicity is a feature most commonly associated
(e.g., 370 Bq L1), and knowing such parameters with data collected over time, and it represents a
as mentioned above, one can back-calculate, for recurring pattern, that might reflect a biological
example, the 137Cs areal activity density or deposi- growth cycle or a diurnal light and/or temperature
tion that would be expected to cause milk levels effect. It may also occur in some spatial contexts
exceeding this value for various geographic areas (e.g., ploughed agricultural fields, and orchards or
and various human groups that rely on these areas. plantations with regularly spaced trees). The pres-
Such knowledge gained and expressed in a spatial ence of any periodicity requires special care in the
context can be extremely valuable in making man- sampling design and analysis to avoid bias in the
agement decisions after serious accidental releases, results (see Section 6).
such as possible evacuation, food use restrictions,
and when warranted the ultimate remediation of 5.3.4 Spatial covariance
heavily contaminated areas.
The values of the attribute of interest of the spatial
random process at two locations are not generally
independent. Values at two places nearby are likely
5.3 TERMINOLOGY AND NOTATION
to be more similar than values at two places
Discussion of spatial sampling and analysis requires further apart. Thus one can define the spatial cov-
some specialized terminology and notation, which ariance Cov of the random process in general as a
are introduced here. More discussion and technical function of lag distance (h) separating the sampling
definitions can be found in GLOSSARY and in vari- locations, by
ous references, including Burrough and McDonnell
(1998), Cressie (1993), Deutsch and Journel (1998), Covð zðuÞ, zðu þ hÞÞ ¼ 2CðhÞ, ð5:1Þ
Diggle et al., (1998), Isaaks and Srivastava (1989), where C(h) is the spatial covariance between points
Pebesma and Wesseling (1998), and Webster and separated by the lag distance h.
Oliver (2001), Wackernagel (2003). This section Generally, the lag is a vector quantity and the
focuses more on data analysis than sampling and covariance might depend both on length and direc-
is thus more technical than the rest of the report. tion. However, in many practical situations the
This section can be skipped by most readers. covariance function does not display dependence on
direction and the lag can be considered as a scalar
5.3.1 Spatial random process value (see details below in the Section 5.3.5).
Spatial sampling deals with random spatially cor-
related processes defined in a spatial domain. The 5.3.5 Isotropy and anisotropy
process specifies values of an attribute across the A spatial random process is said to be isotropic if its
spatial domain. The locations at which the attri- properties do not depend on direction. If Eq. (5.1)
bute of interest is measured are defined by a series holds for scalar Euclidean distance, i.e., h ¼
of spatial coordinates. Consider a spatial random kui ujk, i, j ¼ 1, . . ., n, then the random process is
process, ZðuÞ, defined in a two-dimensional domain. said to be isotropic. If the spatial covariance pattern
Here, u is a two-dimensional coordinate vector is different in at least one direction, then the process
(e.g., Universal Tranverse Mercator coordinates) of is said to be anisotropic.
a point in the spatial domain. Realizations of the
process, z(ui), are observed at sampling points ui, 5.3.6 Stationarity
where i = 1, . . ., n.
A stationary random spatial process, strictly
defined, is a spatial process whose distribution func-
5.3.2 Spatial trend
tion is the same at all locations. There is no spatial
By definition, a trend is a systematic change in the trend, nor spatial periodicity, and the spatial covari-
mean value of the attribute over the area of interest. ance is the same at all locations (see Burrough and
It is generally recognized that trend is a regional McDonnell, 1998; Cressie, 1993; or Webster and
property. Although the trend is usually assumed Oliver, 2001). Under conditions of stationarity (see
to be a smooth change, it may change abruptly in GLOSSARY), we can define the semi-variogram
53 AAPM Member Copy
in relation to the variance (Var) among pairs of

γ (h)
locations separated by h as
Var½ ZðuÞ Zðu þ hÞ ¼ 2gðhÞ, ð5:2Þ range
sill
where g(h) is called ‘semi-variogram.’
5.3.7 Relationship between the

semivariogram and the spatial correlation
The spatial correlation, r(h), between attributes
measured at two locations separated by the distance nugget
h can be written in terms of the spatial covariance,
C(h), or the semivariogram, g(h). h
rðhÞ ¼ CðhÞ=Cð0Þ ¼ 1 gðhÞ=g ð1Þ, ð5:3Þ Figure 5.1. Parameters of a variogram: the range, the sill, and the
nugget.
where C(0) ¼ g(1) is the variance of the attribute
over the spatial region. It is the semi-variogram of
pairs of locations separated by sufficiently large a The variogram characterizes spatial covariance
distance to eliminate spatial correlation. The spatial (correlation) between the data points. Examples are
correlation, the spatial covariance, and the semi- given in Figure 5.2. Plot ‘a’ illustrates a spatial pro-
variogram are alternative descriptions of the same cess with no spatial correlation pattern; observa-
phenomenon. However, the semivariogram is tions are uncorrelated within the sampled area and
preferred because it can be estimated more accu- all errors appear as pure stochastic ‘white noise’.
rately and is slightly more general mathematically This is also called a ‘nugget’ variogram. Plot ‘b’
(Cressie 1993). illustrates a spatial process with spatial correla-
tion; observations separated by h values less than
5.3.8 Empirical variogram 10 units are correlated with each other. The semi-
variance reaches an asymptote at approximately
The most commonly used of several variogram esti-
10 units, indicating that observations separated by
mators is the classical (Deutsch and Journel, 1998)
larger distances are uncorrelated. Plot ‘c’ illustrates
estimator
a spatial process with a spatial trend; nearby
1 Xh i2 observations are positively correlated, but the semi-
N ð hÞ
g ðh Þ ¼ zðui þ hÞ zðui Þ : ð5:4Þ variance does not appear to reach an asymptote.
2N ðhÞ i¼1
This pattern commonly arises when there is a spatial
Summation in Eq. (5.4) is done over all points trend.
separated by the lag vector h. The distance values
are grouped into arbitrary defined bins, therefore 5.3.9 Modeling the empirical variogram
Eq. (5.4) represents a variogram in binned form. Empirical variograms are modeled using a theoreti-
An alternative is to work directly with variogram cal variogram model. A variety of mathematical
cloud, i.e., with the cloud of points functions can be used to model the variogram.
1 These can be found in books on spatial statistics,
g hij ¼ g ui uj ¼ ½zðui Þ z uj 2 , ð5:5Þ e.g., Cressie (1993), Isaaks and Srivastava (1989),
2
and Webster and Oliver (2001) to mention only a
for i, j ¼ 1, . . ., n.
few. There is a rich variety of functions suitable
Three quantities from the variogram are com-
for variogram modeling. Two commonly used models
monly used to summarize the magnitude and extent
are given below: nugget variogram for purely
of spatial correlation. They are illustrated by
random data (plot a in Figure 5.2)
Figure 5.1. The nugget is the limiting value of
(
the semivariance as the distance approaches zero. 0, if h ¼ 0
The nugget captures spatial variability at very g ð hÞ ¼ , ð5:6Þ
c, otherwise
small spatial scales (those less than the separation
between observations) and also measurement error. and the spherical variogram (plot b in Figure 5.2)
The sill is the horizontal asymptote of the variogram,
( 3
if it exists, and represents the overall variance of c · 1:5 ha 0:5 ha , if h 0
the random process. The range is the lag value at g ð hÞ ¼ : ð5:7Þ
which the semi-variance value reaches the sill. c, if h a;
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3.0 (a) 3.0 (b)
Semivariance 2.5 2.5
Semivariance
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15
Lag distance Lag distance
3.0 (c)
2.5
Semivariance
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0 5 10 15
Lag distance
Figure 5.2. Examples of variograms, where lag distance and semivariance are in arbitrary units. The upper left (a) shows an example of
no spatial pattern where observations are uncorrelated within the sampled area. The upper right (b) shows a spatial process with
short-range spatial dependence, but decreasing dependence as the distance between observations become more separated. The lower
left graph (c) illustrates a spatial trend without an asymptote.
where the parameters a and c are called the range random selection of the sample points, and therefore
and sill, respectively. Other legitimate variogram any spatial correlation among the observed values
functions can be found in the references given above. is irrelevant (DeGruijter and ter Braak, 1990;
Gregoire, 1998).
In a model-based sampling method, the sampling
design and analysis are based on an assumed
5.4 DESIGN- AND MODEL-BASED
stochastic model of the spatial random process.
SAMPLING METHODS
This model will typically describe the trend and spa-
In a design-based sampling method, it is assumed tial correlation in the measured quantity in terms
that the observations are based on random samples of parameters, e.g., the population mean. Given the
from the population of interest. As with non-spatial model, the measured values are used to estimate the
data, if the entire population could be sampled, the population quantities. In the model-based approach,
quantity of interest would be precisely known if estimates are random variables, and therefore the
there were no other source of variation such as population quantities are not precisely known, even
measurement error. The uncertainty in the quanti- if the entire population were surveyed.
ties of interest (e.g., the population average or total) In model-based sampling, the uncertainty in the
arises because only a subset, the sample, is observed. quantity of interest arises from the random process
If a probability mechanism (e.g., one of the sampling that generates the observations. This has two
designs described in Section 3) is used to choose the consequences. First, the samples do not have to be
locations to sample, the properties of the sampl- randomly selected from the population of interest.
ing design provide a mathematical framework to The samples may be a haphazard or convenience
estimate the uncertainty in the quantity of interest. sample. Second, inferences about population quanti-
The design-based approach makes no assumptions ties depend on the correctness of the model. If
about the spatial correlation or independence of the the assumed model is inappropriate, inferences
observations. The randomness that matters is the about the population quantities can be wrong.
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To illustrate these principles, consider designing 5.5 DESIGN-BASED SAMPLING SCHEMES

a study of radionuclide concentration in a shallow FOR SPATIAL DATA
lake after a depositional event. Physical and hydro-
The classical sampling designs and analyses
logical principles suggest that the radionuclide
described in Sections 3 and 4 can be used in a
is associated with fine sediments, and therefore
spatial context. In design-based sampling schemes,
the radionuclide activity densities will be greater in
the sampling procedure is probabilistic with the
the depositional zone of the deeper part of the lake
assumption that we have identified the full set of
than in the shallow erosional zone. Sediment sam-
‘individuals’ within the target population, and
ples will be collected using a 28 cm diameter grab
sampling involves a selection of individuals to be
sampler. In a design-based method (i.e., a simple
examined. In such cases, many of the ideas intro-
random sample), all locations are equally likely to
duced in Section 4 will apply, but with modification
be chosen. Because of the randomness in the choice
to reflect the spatial dimension.
of sample locations, the sample average is an
Some commonly used sampling schemes are based
unbiased estimate of the true, but unknown, average
on quadrats and transects. A quadrat is a well-
activity density in the sediment.
defined area within which one or more samples are
In a model-based method, estimation of the
taken; it is usually square or rectangular in shape,
population mean requires a model that connects
with fixed dimensions. The position and orientation
observations, z(ui) at locations ui, to the population
of the quadrat will be chosen as part of the sampl-
mean, m. One simple model is: Z(ui) ¼ m þ «(ui),
ing scheme. A line transect is a straight line along
where the errors « are assumed to have a mean of
which samples are taken, the starting point and
zero. The assumption that the mean error is zero
orientation of which will be chosen as part of the
implies that the radionuclide activity density at
sampling scheme. In addition, the number of sam-
sampled locations is on average equal to the popula-
ples to be collected along the transect, and their
tion mean. Such a model would be appropriate
spacing requires definition.
if the sample locations are a simple random sample
of all possible sites on the lake, and therefore
model-based inference can be used with a random- 5.5.1 Random and stratified random
ized sample. Such a model would also be appropriate sampling
if samples were not taken at random, but rather In random sampling, a random sample of locations
at haphazardly chosen locations, so long as the at which the attribute is to be measured is chosen
choice of locations was not related to radionuclide from the target population of locations. If there is
activity density. Any specific model is not always knowledge of different strata over the sampling
appropriate. For example, shallow depths are often domain (such as soil type), the use of a stratified
easier to sample. The simple model would not sample would be recommended and a random
be appropriate to estimate m if samples were sample of locations would be selected within each
taken mostly from shallow depths, because deeper strata. The number of samples to be collected in
depths with higher activity densities would be each stratum would be defined on the basis of the
under-represented, and the sample average will relative areas of each stratum. The data set is
underestimate the true population mean. The popu- then given by the spatial coordinates of each mea-
lation mean could be estimated by using a more surement location and the measured value of the
complicated model that incorporates a model for attribute at that location.
the relationship between depth and radionuclide
concentration.
5.5.2 Systematic grid sampling and
Finally, model-based analyses can answer more
geometric grid pattern
questions than design-based analyses. For example,
a design-based analysis is restricted to estimating Usually, for systematic sampling the region is con-
population quantities. It cannot predict values, or sidered as being overlaid by a grid (rectangular or
the distribution of values, at un-sampled locations. otherwise), and sampling locations are at gridline
A model-based analysis can make such predictions, intersections at fixed distance apart in each of the
because the model that connects observations to two directions. The starting location is expected to be
population quantities also applies to un-sampled randomly selected. A variant, the ‘unaligned grid’
locations. There are a number of different methods pattern (Figure 5.3), reduces the potential bias
for spatial interpolation and prediction based on resulting from a periodicity (Berry and Baker,
spatially sampled data. One such popular approach 1968; Gilbert, 1987).
has been given the name kriging and this will be Both the extent of the grid and the spacing
covered in Section 5.6. between locations are important. The sampling grid
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x
x
x
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x x
x x
x
x
x x
x x
x
x x
x
Figure 5.3. The unaligned grid, where sampling locations within grid cells (x) are selected by a random process. This pattern can reduce
potential bias resulting from periodicity.
should span the area of interest (the population), dimension of the study area, and all transects have
so that any part of the population could become a the same orientation. Often the spacing of sampling
sampling location. If the goal of the study is to locations along the transect is much shorter than the
describe spatial correlations, the spacing between distance between transects. This form of transect
locations should be shorter than the range of the sampling results in a rectangular grid sample. The
correlation. A systematic grid may also include measurements generated from such sampling can
additional points at short distances from some of be used to estimate population averages, proportions
the grid points. These points can provide additional and other percentiles of the distribution.
information about small-scale spatial correlations.
Example:
5.5.3 Transect sampling In a study of 137Cs distribution across a valley, the
objective was to map the 137Cs distribution and to
When it is necessary to sample a large area with
seek evidence of any natural enhancement of the
closely spaced sampling locations, a systematic grid
levels as a result of run-off from the valley sides
can require a very large number of sampling
(Tyler and Heal, 2000). A series of 7 transects across
locations. Transect sampling can provide almost as
the valley in a N–S direction were spaced 400 m
much information with many fewer sampling
apart. On each transect, sampling positions were
locations. A transect sample is a random or, more
located every 200 m. This resulted in the region
commonly, a systematic sample along a line.
being covered by a rectangular grid of sampling loca-
Customarily the lines are straight lines.
tions. A soil sample was taken from each location
Two types of transect samples are common. In
and the data revealed a Cvar of 1.06. A strong spatial
one, transects are short relative to the size of the
pattern was evident: 137Cs activity was highest in
study area. These transects are randomly located
the floor of the valley, which could be explained
within the study area. Both the starting point
by the predominant water flow from the valley sides.
and directional orientation of the transect should
be randomly chosen. Ideally, data are collected
5.5.4 Cluster sampling
from more than one transect; each transect has a
new starting point and direction. This type of tran- Cluster sampling is particularly useful in patchy
sect sampling is a cluster sample, with transects environments. The population is divided into
defining the clusters. In the second form of transect primary units; each primary unit is divided into
sampling, transects extend completely across one secondary units. In the spatial context, all the
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sub-units are physically close together. A sampling (especially kriging) are described in more detail
design (e.g., a simple random sample or a systematic below. As with Section 5.3, this section is focused
design) is used to select a subset of the primary more on data analysis than on sampling; thus it
units. Then, all the sub-units in the chosen pri- is rather technical and may be skipped by most
mary units are sampled. As an example, consider readers.
sampling lichens growing on boulders scattered in
a forest. It would be difficult and perhaps impossible 5.6.1 Non-stochastic interpolation
to enumerate all the lichens from which to draw a methods
simple random sample. A systematic sample would Common to all interpolation methods is that the
be a problem because there may not be any lichen estimate of a value of interest in the unsampled
at many of the grid points. A cluster sample then (target) location, u0, is constructed as a weighted
becomes a reasonable sampling method. The boul- mean of the sample values:
ders are the primary units. The secondary units are
X
N
the lichens. z*ðu0 Þ ¼ li zðui Þ: ð5:8Þ
Estimation of the population mean and the i¼1
standard error of the mean is relatively easy for a
What is different for the different interpolation
cluster sample in which all secondary units in a
methods is the way the weights are defined. They
selected primary unit are collected for measurement.
also differ in the scale of support [N in Eq. (5.8)
The data are reduced to totals for each primary
above]. Non-stochastic interpolation methods
unit, then analysed as appropriate for the sampling
involve the use of varied numbers of measured
design used to select the primary units (Cochran,
locations (n), and include:
1977; Thompson, 1992).
A variant of the cluster sample is a two-stage Thiessen polygons (Voronoi polygons, Dirichlet
sample. A subset of primary units is sampled, just tessellation), n ¼ 1;
as for a cluster sample. However, in a two-stage Triangulation, n ¼ 3;
design, only a subset of the secondary units on the Natural neighbour interpolation, n > 1;
selected primary units is sampled. Because there Inverse distance interpolation, n > 1.
are two levels of random sampling in this case, the
More technical details on these methods can be
estimation of the population mean and the standard
found elsewhere, for example, in Chapter 3 of
error of the mean is more complicated. Details can
Webster and Oliver (2001).
be found in Cochran (1977), Thompson (1992), and
other sampling texts.
5.6.2 Trend surfaces
5.5.5 Number of samples required Another group of interpolation methods is based on
the idea of spatial regression. Namely, it is assumed
The choice of sample size for a design-based
that the sample data are realizations of a random
analysis of spatial data is based on exactly the
process which can be represented as a sum of
same principles as that for non-spatial data dis-
true (T) values plus random errors. The errors are
cussed in Section 3.3.
assumed to be independent and uncorrelated,
i.e., the following model for the process is assumed:
5.6 SPATIAL INTERPOLATION AND ZðuÞ ¼ T ðuÞ þ «: ð5:9Þ
PREDICTION Assuming such a model, we can carry out a spatial
There are many methods for spatial interpolation regression, globally or locally. The functions used in
and prediction, given a set of spatially registered the regressions process can be polynomials or splines
measurement data. A widely used class of models (Burrough and McDonnell, 1998; Ripley, 1981;
includes polygon tessellation and triangulation Webster and Oliver, 2001).
based on a spatial sample. Others include global The spatial regression is usually based on assump-
and local polynomial fitting (Haining, 1990), natural tion of non-correlated random errors. If this does not
neighbor and inverse distance weighting interpola- hold then another group of interpolation methods
tion. All have in common the basic principle that should be used, such as geostatistical methods.
the estimate at the target location is the weighted
5.6.3 Geostatistical methods for spatial
sum of observations at locations in some neigh-
analysis and sampling
borhood of the point of interest. Geostatistics (and
kriging) is a method which is increasingly being used Since the 1950s, geostatistics has rapidly developed,
in radioecological investigations. These methods mainly, for its applications to estimation of natural
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reserves and mining. Nowadays, there is an exten- high degree is numerically very unstable and the
sive set of the geostatistical methods and numerous results can be non robust, while lower-degree poly-
developments are still ongoing. Of the extensive nomials may not reproduce complicated system-
literature on this subject, the books (Chilès and atic variations, especially in the case of spatial or
Delfiner, 1999; Cressie, 1993; Isaaks and Srivastava, volumetric pattern. To avoid these shortcomings a
1989; Journel and Huijbregts, 1978; and technique such as local polynomial regression can be
Wackernagel, 2003; Webster and Oliver, 2001) used, [one such a technique is the Loess method
provide comprehensive references for the current (Cleveland, 1981)]. Such a local polynomial fit
state of geostatistics. results in estimates of the deterministic spatial
The sample data, {z(ui) : i ¼ 1, . . ., n}, are consid- trend, m(u0) with uncertainty defined by variance
ered as realizations of a spatial random process, of the stochastic residual, Sr(u) .
Z(u), with the sample points, ui, located in a two- If the residual data, Sr(ui) are correlated then
dimensional spatial domain. That is, ui is a set of they are subject to further geostatistical analysis
vectors. The process Z(u) is assumed to be Gaussian. by variogram modeling (see Section 5.6.4). Note
If it is not Gaussian, then an appropriate normal- that if the mean, m(ui), is constant, it does not need
ization transform should be applied (such as a log to be estimated before computing the variogram.
transform). If the sample data demonstrate both Because the variogram is calculated by taking dif-
systematic behavior and random fluctuations, then ferences between pairs of observations, a constant
the following model for the random process can mean cancels out of the variogram computation.
be assumed:
ZðuÞ ¼ mðuÞ þ Sr ðuÞ ¼ mðuÞ þ Y ðuÞ þ «, ð5:10Þ 5.6.4 Describing the small-scale spatial
variation and measurement error
where m(u) represents the non-stochastic spatial
component of the random process or trend; Sr(u) is After the trend is estimated, the observed values
the stochastic part of the process, which can be can be de-trended by subtracting the estimated
separated into correlated and non-correlated com- trend. Then, the variogram value and the distance
ponents, Y(u) and «, respectively. The variance of between the locations are calculated for each pair
Z(u) is defined by the variance of the stochastic of de-trended observations. The variogram cloud,
part of the process, namely, Var(Z(u)) ¼ s2. Depend- a plot of squared differences and spatial distances
ing on the complexity of the environmental context, for each pair of points, is usually hard to interpret
the spatial variation of Y(u) may be isotropic, i.e., because of the large variability between squared dif-
dependent only on distance, or anisotropic, i.e., ferences. It is much easier to interpret the variogram
dependent on both distance and direction between values after reducing variability by averaging pairs
points. The correlation properties of Y(u) are of points separated by the same or similar spatial
described using the variogram. The variance of distances. In most data sets, there are very few pairs
the non-correlated component, Var(«) ¼ t 2, is called of observations separated by any one specific dis-
the ‘nugget’ in the geostatistical literature and can tance. Instead, ranges of distances, usually called
be interpreted as a combined result of micro-scale bins, are chosen. For example, one bin might contain
variations and measurement error. all pairs of points separated by distances between 10
A widely used kriging method is so-called ordinary and 15 m.
kriging. In this method the spatial trend is assumed If the spatial process is suspected to be anisotro-
to be constant but unknown. If there is a non- pic, directional variograms or variogram maps
constant trend, it should be described by a model. It should be constructed to evaluate the magnitude
is common practice to model the trend by a global of the anisotropy. A directional variogram is a vari-
polynomial spatial regression [‘universal’ kriging or ogram restricted to pairs of points that lie in a spe-
kriging with the drift (see e.g., Deutsch and Journel, cific direction bin. Each pair of points is placed in a
1998)]. A geostatistical model is fitted to data by distance bin and a direction bin. For example, the
estimating the trend, describing the spatial pattern direction bin used to describe spatial correlation in a
in Sr(ui), (by considering the variogram) and generally East-West direction might include all
estimating the error variance s2. This is at least a directions from 45 to 135 . If a series of directional
two-stage process. First, the trend is estimated and variograms have similar characteristics, the process
subtracted from the observations. The mean com- is considered to be isotropic. If one or more direc-
ponent m(u) describes the spatial trend if one is tional variograms differ, the process should be mod-
present. Spatial polynomial regression has short- elled using a variogram for each set of directions.
comings common to all polynomial interpolation The appearance of the variogram depends on the
techniques, i.e., estimation fitting polynomials of bin widths and ranges. These are often arbitrary
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choices or default settings provided by software m(ui) ¼ mj. The second variogram computed from
packages. One common set of recommendations is the de-trended residuals showed no spatial depen-
to use a bin width close to the average distance dence. The difference between these two results
between nearest neighbors. If points are sampled demonstrates that the description of the small-
on a regular grid, the bin width will be the spacing scale spatial variation depends on the model used
between the grid points. The first bin is centered on for the spatial trend.
the average nearest-neighbour distance, i.e., the
grid spacing in a regular grid. The variogram value
is estimated for lag distances up to approximately 5.6.5 Predicting the spatial process at
half the shortest distance across the study region. unobserved point locations: kriging
The reason for this is that variogram values for Some objectives, such as producing a map, estimat-
longer distances are estimated from very few pairs ing the proportion of area that exceeds some action
of points and thus are less informative. level, or estimating the mean of the entire area,
Different choices of bin width and maximum lag require the additional step of kriging. Kriging
distance can produce variograms that look different involves predicting a value at a single unobserved
from the original. Choosing the most appropriate location, or, when predictions are needed for more
variogram requires a considerable amount of inter- than one location, the procedure is repeated for each
pretation and background knowledge. An inter- unobserved location.
comparison study of 12 geostatisticians given the The predicted value for an unobserved location
same data set found considerable variation between is calculated by averaging values from observed
the individuals (Englund, 1990). Documentation of locations. The question of which locations to use
a spatial analysis should include a clear description depends on the magnitude and range of the spatial
of the bins used to calculate the variogram. correlation. If the spatial correlation between nearby
The variogram portrays the pattern of spatial cor- points is very large, then values from observed loca-
relation. It can be summarized by fitting a model, tions close to the prediction location are the most
e.g., the isotropic spherical variogram (Eq. 5.7). highly correlated with the unobserved value. The
Parameters of the variogram model (e.g., the nugget, best prediction (unbiased with lowest variance) of
range and sill) can be estimated visually or by the unobserved location will be an average of the
numerically minimization. Many uses of the vari- values at the nearby locations. If there is no spatial
ogram require an estimate of the correlation, or correlation, then the best prediction of the unob-
semi-variance, between a pair of points separated served value is the average of all values, including
by a specific distance. These estimates can be found those that are near and those that are far from the -
by fitting a variogram model, then using the prediction location.
model and estimated parameters to calculate the Mathematically, the punctual kriging predictor
estimated correlation. at un-sampled location u0 is a weighted average of
The interpretation of the variogram cannot be the values at sampled locations, ui.
separated from interpretation of the trend. As dis- X
cussed in the previous section, there is no unique z ð u0 Þ ¼ li · zðui Þ, ð5:11Þ
decomposition of a set of observations into a spatial
trend and a small-scale spatial variation (Cressie, where weights for each point, li, are computed from
1993). The choice of the mean function, m(u) , will the estimated variogram; they are a function of the
influence the amount and magnitude of the spatial distance between the prediction location, u0, and the
correlation in the residual, Sr(u) , and measurement observed locations, the ui. These predictions are for
error, «(u). Knowledge of the environmental context point locations, i.e., the same physical unit, with the
can help identify the most appropriate mean same spatial support, as the observed locations.
function. If the model for the data includes a non-constant
Oliver and Badr (1995) provide a radioecological spatial trend, the prediction method is modified
example of this. They computed two variograms slightly to include two components: the estimated
from soil radon concentration measured every 20 m trend contribution for location u0, m(u0), and the
along a 2 km transect that crossed six rock types. estimated contribution from small-scale spatial
One variogram assumed no spatial trend, therefore variation, Sr(u0). The second quantity is estimated
m(u) was a constant. It indicated a moderate amount by the kriging equation using the variogram of
of small-scale dependence with a range of about de-trended values. The predicted value is the sum
300 m. Then it was assumed in second variogram of the trend and small-scale variation contributions.
that the mean radon concentration differed between It is also possible to estimate the prediction variance
rock types, i.e., the trend was non-constant, so for any unobserved location (for details, see Cressie,
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1993; Thompson, 1992; or Webster and Oliver, topographical altitude data or rainfall measure-
2001). ments as the secondary attribute.
To construct a map, the kriging prediction
equation is used to predict values for a finely 5.6.8 Use of the variogram to design a
spaced grid of observations. These predicted values sampling strategy
are then used to construct the map, using contour The variogram provides information about the spa-
lines, shading, or coloring as appropriate. tial correlation between locations. This information
can be used in two different ways, depending on the
5.6.6 Predicting values for areas larger goal of the sampling strategy. If the sampling goal is
than the sample size: block kriging to produce a map, or to estimate the proportion of an
area where the attribute of interest exceeds some
The kriging equation provides predictions for single critical value, it is important to detect small-scale
locations with the same physical size as the observed fluctuations in the quantity of interest. Prediction
locations. Many applications require predictions for of the values at individual locations is most precise
larger areas, e.g., a sub-region of the study area or when those locations are highly correlated with
even the entire study area. These predictions for observed locations. This can be achieved by ensuring
blocks of area require a spatial integral (Cressie, that no place on the map is too far from an observed
1993; Thompson, 1992). This integral can be numeri- location (McBratney et al., 1981; McBratney and
cally approximated by computing point predictions Webster, 1981). One design to achieve this is a sys-
using Eq. (5.11) for a finely spaced grid of points tematic sample with a grid spacing less than the
within the larger area, then averaging the point range of the variogram. A rectangular grid is slightly
predictions. This approach has been used by inferior to a triangular grid (McBratney et al., 1981),
Chappell and Warren (2003) to estimate the total but the rectangular grid may be more practical.
inventory of 137Cs in a 19 km2 area of arable land. If the sampling goal is to estimate the average
over the entire study area, the opposite strategy is
5.6.7 Other kriging methods: indicator more appropriate. Correlated observations provide
kriging and co-kriging redundant statistical information, and therefore it
would be appropriate to spread out points so that
There are many modifications and variations of no distance between a pair of points is smaller than
the kriging interpolation method. Deutsch and the variogram range.
Journel (1998) cover most of them in their GSLIB
software library. Two modifications most relevant 5.6.9 Number of samples required
to environmental radioactivity are mentioned below:
Non-linear kriging methods: It is very often the It is difficult to provide specific advice about
case in environmental studies that the attribute of sample size for model-based sampling and analysis
interest results from a non-Gaussian random pro- because there are many possible objectives and char-
cess. Then, the observed data should be transformed acteristics that influence the choice of sample size.
to achieve normality. There are a number of appro- Some general advice is nevertheless offered.
priate transforms, of which the log is most often used Sampling more points provides a better estimate
in environmental applications. Another approach of the variogram. One recommendation is to sample
is ‘indicator’ or ‘disjunctive’ kriging for which the at least 100 and preferably more than 150 points.
observations take the values 1 or 0 representing As stated by Webster and Oliver (1992), ‘variograms
presence or absence of a trait, e.g., above or below computed on fewer than 50 data points are of little
background level. Indicator kriging provides spatial value’.
predictions of the probability of exceeding the The most important part of the variogram is its
background. behavior at short distances, especially distances
Co-kriging: There are often situations when close to zero. To estimate the variogram well, it is
sampling of the attribute of interest (primary attri- useful to include pairs of points separated by short
bute) is not possible, or expensive, or difficult. At distances. Also, sampling points closer together imp-
the same time there might be another (secondary) roves predictions of unobserved values (McBratney
attribute that is known much better or can be more et al., 1981). The amount of improvement depends on
easily sampled. If the primary and secondary attri- the range and shape of the variogram.
bute are correlated then kriging can be modified
5.6.10 Difficulties
to include the ‘cheap-to-measure’ secondary attri-
bute sample. One example of such an approach Inherent in all model-based approaches is the
might be predicting radionuclide deposition using critical assumption that the model is appropriate.
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Table 5.1. Selected examples of geostatistical analyses of radionuclides in the literature.
Radionuclide Location Objective Citation
241
Am Nevada test site Mapping Gilbert and Simpson (1985)
222
Rn Midlands, England Estimating spatial variability Oliver and Badr (1995)
137
Cs Rongelap Atoll Mapping Diggle et al. (1998)
226
Ra, 228Ra, 40K County Donegal, Ireland Mapping Estimating inventory Dowdall and O’Dea (1999)
137
Cs Norfolk, England Estimating inventory Chappell and Warren (2003)
Rainfall (surrogate for 137Cs) Switzerland Mapping Dubois et al. (2003)
This includes both the model for the mean structure literature are provided in Table 5.1. The papers
and the variogram model for the small-scale spatial in Dubois et al. (2003) illustrate and compare geo-
variation. Different models can lead to different con- statistical and non-geostatistical methods for
clusions (Englund, 1990). In particular, estimation mapping rainfall (and hence 137Cs deposition).
of the variogram can be difficult, especially if the
sample size is small or the data set includes unusual 5.6.12 Prior knowledge and pilot studies
values, or outliers. The estimated variogram is very Broadly, two types of prior information (i.e.,
sensitive to unusual values (outliers). One crucial information collated and evaluated prior to the
assumption is stationarity, namely, that the pattern main study) may prove to be useful. First, there
of spatial covariance is the same everywhere in might be prior knowledge about the nature of
the spatial domain of interest. Problems that can the problem and the underlying physical/chemical/
arise when stationarity is lacking are illustrated in biological processes. This kind of information can
Gilbert and Simpson (1985) and McArthur (1987). lead to a refinement of the context of the problem,
Model diagnostics to test the assumptions in spatial a clearer identification of what needs to be
models are not well developed. Some approaches modelled or estimated, and to practical and effective
can be found in Cressie (1993) and Wackernagel sampling schemes. A simple example is the use of
(2003). information about local land use practices when
The concern about model assumptions need not considering exposure via milk consumption of
be taken to an extreme. The key question is whether radionuclides deposited in the area. Another exam-
a model is appropriate for its purpose, not whether ple is prior information about the range of spatial
the model is completely correct. The spatial patterns correlation that can help in choosing the grid
in the real world reflect many processes, each with spacing when the objective is to map an attribute.
a different spatial scale. The commonly used Such information may have a more structured
variogram models are unlikely to incorporate the form. For example there may be a prior need to
complexity found in the real world. Nevertheless, formulate models of dispersion as part of an emer-
a simple variogram model often describes the gency-management guidance manual that would
observed spatial pattern reasonably well (Webster be used in the event of a nuclear accident. Such
and Oliver, 1992). prior information might also be exploited when
There is also a theoretical problem when kriging plentiful data are used to supplement subsequently
data containing periodicities, as the assumption collected sparse data that are expensive to obtain
of stationarity is violated. A non-linear sampling (cf., modified kriging procedures; Burrough and
grid such as the ‘herring-bone’ pattern is insensitive McDonnell, 1998).
to periodicities, and is also insensitive to the The second type of prior information is used
orientation of non-circular ‘hot-spots’ of contami- when defining the population to be sampled, i.e.,
nation in sampling plane. Cressie (1993, p. 316) dis- the spatial boundaries, restricted areas (which may
cusses a number of grid layouts, and provides lead to a difference between the target population
helpful references. and the sampled population), the sampling unit,
the sampling protocol, the measurement method,
5.6.11 Examples of model-based analyses
etc. When designing the sampling scheme, it is nec-
Because a model-based analysis can have many essary to have some information about the likely
different goals and requires the consideration of distribution of observations and the magnitudes of
many details, including the sampling scheme, their variances. Whether from literature or pilot
the choice of bins to estimate the variogram, and studies, such information is essential for designing
the choice of variogram model, detailed examples an effective sampling scheme that can satisfy the
are not included here. Some examples from the objectives of the study.
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One way that prior information might be exploited A review of these methods is found in Chapter 10 of
is illustrated in the following example. A total Gilbert (1987).
population comprises two areas, in one of which con- A systematic sample, using either a triangular or
tamination is judged likely, while in the other square grid, is the preferred sampling design to
measurable contamination is judged improbable. detect a single hot spot. The probability of detection
Having such prior information, one could exploit depends on the size and shape of the hot spot and
the likelihood that the variability of high levels the spacing between locations on the grid (Zirschky
will be greater than that of low levels of contamina- and Gilbert, 1984). In general, the detection proba-
tion. The sampling effort can be allocated accord- bility is small unless the hot-spot area is large or the
ingly, with fewer samples necessary in the region grid spacing is small. For example, consider design-
of lower contamination. The details of sample alloca- ing a survey to detect a circular hot spot with a
tion in a stratified-sampling design are discussed in diameter of 1 m. Using the nomograms in Zirschky
Section 4.2.3 and Gilbert (1987, p. 50). and Gilbert (1984) or Gilbert (1987), a square grid
with 5 m spacing in both directions has a probability
of only 3 % of detecting the hot spot. To be reasonably
5.7 LOCATING HOT SPOTS certain of detecting that hot spot (e.g., a detection
probability of 95 %), the grid spacing should be
One practical problem in radioecology is the detec-
0.86 m. A randomly oriented single elliptical hot
tion of hot spots. A hot spot might be defined as an
spot is even harder to detect. The grid spacing
area of significant dimension in the context of the
should be 0.57 m to detect a relatively thin ellipse
problem, where the activity density is perhaps an
(e.g., ratio of major-to-minor axis length ¼ 2) with a
order of magnitude higher than in nearby surround-
probability of 95 %.
ing areas. Such problems can occur in land contam-
The probability of detecting at least one of several
ination scenarios and they can affect management
hot spots can be computed using the methods in
decisions. It is assumed that such a hot spot can be
Nicholson and Barry (1996). They provide formulae
identified unambiguously. When measurement and
for a random or known number (1) of hot spots,
sample analysis variances are sufficiently small, any
and/or a random distribution of hot spot dimensions.
hot spot will be clearly evident if there is a sampling
location within the area of enhanced contamination.
5.7.2 Estimating the probability that a hot
The following questions addressed in the following
spot exists when one is not detected
sections may be asked about hot spots:
The approach in Section 5.7.1 is useful for designing
If there is a hot spot of a given size, how likely is
a survey to detect a hot spot. Those calculations give
it to be detected if a specified sampling design is
the probability that a hot spot will be detected, if one
used?
exists. However, not detecting a hot spot does not
If N samples following a certain design have been
mean that there is no hot spot in the area. The
collected and a hot spot has not been found, how
probability that a hot spot is present, given that the
certain can one be that a hot spot does not exist?
survey did not detect it, can be computed using
If one location inside a hot spot is found, which
Bayes’ theorem to give
sampling design is best for delineating the edges
of the hot spot? Probability½present j not detected
¼ ð1 DÞ=ð1 DÞ; ð5:12Þ
5.7.1 Probability of detecting a hot spot of
where is the prior probability that a hot spot
a specified size
exists and D is the probability that a hot spot will
It is assumed that a hot spot will be detected if one of be detected given that it exists (Gilbert, 1987,
the sampling locations lies inside the hot spot. The pp. 128–129). D is computed using the methods
probability of finding a hot spot using a specific described in Section 5.7.1. The value of may be
sampling design is the probability that at least one based on the investigator’s opinion before the data
sample unit inside the hot spot is included in the are collected. Someone who believes that a hot spot is
sample. These probabilities can be derived from the unlikely would choose a small value for , perhaps
geometries of the hot spot and sampling design. 0.1 or 0.01. One who is convinced that a hot spot
They have been derived by Nicholson and Barry exists might choose a very large value, perhaps
(1996), Parkhurst (1984), Singer (1975), and 0.9 or 0.99. The probability that a hot spot exists
Zirschky and Gilbert (1984) for a single hot spot given that none were detected is very dependent on
with various shapes and two sampling designs: the choice of , as illustrated in Table 5.2. A survey
simple random samples and systematic samples. with a very high detection probability (e.g., D ¼ 0.99
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Table 5.2. Probability that a hot spot is present, given that overall average activity density can be the same in
one was not detected, for specified values of u, the prior
the two samples, but the within sample variability
probability that a hot spot exists, and D, the probability of
detection given that a hot spot is present. is larger in the sample with the hot particle.
Some measurement methods, e.g., spreading a
D Probability finely ground sample over a nuclear-emulsion plate
[present/not detected] (McDowell and Whicker, 1978) can be used to
estimate the within sample variability. However,
0.1 0.5 0.0526 this technique is restricted to very small sample
0.1 0.95 0.0055
0.1 0.99 0.0011
amounts (a few grams).
0.9 0.5 0.8182 Another possible technique for in situ identifica-
0.9 0.95 0.3103 tion of areas that might contain gamma-emitting
0.9 0.99 0.0826 hot particles is the use of a mobile gamma counter
with counts recorded at regularly spaced locations
along transects or on a systematic grid. Gamma
in Table 5.2) is necessary to provide convincing counters record the activity integrated over a spatial
evidence with an initially large that a hot spot is, area that depends on the setup of the detector
in fact, unlikely. (ICRU, 1994). A local increase in activity density
indicates a location that might have a hot particle
5.7.3 Delineating the edges of a hot spot in the vicinity. The presence of a hot particle can be
distinguished from a general increase in activity
After a hot spot has been detected by recording a density by further sampling at finer spatial scales.
large value at one or more sample locations, it is A rigorous evaluation of these techniques has
natural to ask about the boundaries and size of the apparently not been published.
hot spot. What sampling designs are the best, in the
sense of giving the most precise information about
the boundary for the fewest number of additional 5.8 CONCLUSIONS
samples? Little if any work in this area has been
published, but two intuitively reasonable sampling Spatial data are an intrinsic part of many radio-
designs are a systematic-grid sample and a system- ecological problems. Because space is a continuum,
atic sample along a radial series of transects. Both many choices of the sampling unit are possible.
systematic samples should be centered on the initial Design-based methods can be used successfully
location of the hot spot. Kriging could be used to with spatial data, if the sampling unit is chosen
predict values at additional locations not in the sys- appropriately for the environmental context of the
tematic sample. A map with a contour line marking problem. Design-based inference requires some form
the boundary of the hot spot could be drawn using of random sampling that can be described by a
the kriged predictions. probability model. The most common choices are a
simple random sample, a systematic sample using
transects or grids, or a stratified sample. Model-
5.7.4 Detecting hot particles
based methods, such as geostatistics, can be used
A hot particle is a small individual particle, say both to estimate population characteristics and to
<1 cm in diameter, with a very high activity density. predict values at unobserved locations using inter-
An example might be a fragment of Pu metal from polation schemes such as kriging. A dense grid of
weapons development or testing activities. The sorts predicted values can be used to draw maps. Model-
of designs used to locate hot spots are unlikely to based inference does not require a random sample,
locate hot particles because the latter are much but it is not robust if the model is incorrect.
smaller. The difficulty of identifying hot particles is Questions about the magnitude and range of spatial
distinguishing a homogenous sample with a moder- correlation or questions about detecting hot spots
ate activity density from a heterogeneous sample can only be posed for spatial data. Reasonable
containing a hot particle amidst the bulk of material choices of sampling design can provide answers to
with a much lower activity density. The observed these questions; poor choices might not.

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6 TEMPORAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL

SAMPLING PROBLEMS
6.1 INTRODUCTION literature is available (Cressie, 1993; Harvey,

1993). Rather, the ideas and issues in designing the
In many radioecological investigations, sampling
sampling frame are emphasized.
has both a temporal and a spatial aspect. Thus
The following discussions provide only generic
there is a need to ask both when and where the
guidance on the logic of the design process because
samples should be collected. This section considers
the sampling frame will often be case-specific. The
the impact of the temporal context of the popula-
examples and case studies have been structured
tion on sampling designs and joint spatio-temporal
to reflect four different types of studies encountered
contexts, which require the design of a sampling
in radioecology.
frame in both time and space. As before, there are a
number of different objectives for these kinds of
Category A: Temporal sampling with sampling units
sampling. The most common is to investigate trends,
selected independently from the population at each
such as answering questions about changes in the
137 time point.
Cs activity density in milk. The key sampling
This first category deals with problems for which
issues are the questions of when and how frequently
independent samples of units are selected from the
to sample and also how many samples to collect.
population at one or more time points. Individual
In later spatio-temporal examples, the matter of
observations represent a precise point in time, or a
choosing sampling locations is discussed. The key
‘snapshot’. The objective could be to describe the
questions concern the total length of the observation
mean activity in the population over a specific inter-
period and the sampling frequency, particularly
val of time or to detect a change in the mean activity
when the system behaves in a complex way and has
over time. Such a case might arise when monitor-
more than one scale of temporal variation (Green,
ing contaminant levels in animal populations (e.g.,
1984; Millard et al., 1985).
fish in a lake). The design questions are whether
to sample randomly or systematically in time, and
6.1.1 Types of studies with temporal or
what sampling frequency to use if the design is
spatio-temporal sampling
systematic.
Many kinds of reports can be generated from a
survey over time. First, one can simply report on Category B: Temporal sampling with repeated
the state of the system at a single time point. If measurements on the same sampling units.
there are two time points, a report on whether a The second category deals with problems for which
simple increase or decrease in the mean activity repeated measurements are made on the same indi-
can be made. In all the cases considered, the output vidual sampling units. This differs from category A
of the sampling will form a particular data structure in that the same units are repeatedly measured.
described as a time series of observations. In impact Consider a study of contaminant levels in selected
assessments, there will normally be more than one sheep grazing a fenced pasture, for example. It
time series, and, in the case of a network of sampl- would be possible in this to mark and recapture
ing locations, there will be many spatially linked individual animals and make whole-body measure-
time series. Statistical analysis of time-series data ments or to measure urine samples. In many cases,
becomes more complex because in temporal (and the observed variability between measurements
spatio-temporal) problems the observations will be reflects variability due to individual characteristics
correlated in time (and also in space), which impacts of each animal, e.g., its age, its physiology, or the
both on how the samples should be chosen and on characteristics of its home range. Repeatedly meas-
how the results are analysed. The analysis details uring the same animals provides a more precise
are not dealt with here, because more specialized estimate of the temporal change. The measurements
may be instantaneous snapshots (e.g., whole-body can be used to describe the correlation between
external measurements of 137Cs burdens in sheep observations separated by specific amounts of time,
on a certain date) or temporal integrals or averages. to estimate parameters in models for correlated
A temporal integral might arise when monitoring data, and to make predictions of future observations.
radioactivity in air, as the air sampler is fixed Details of these data-analysis methods can be found
at a location and integrates over a period of time in texts on time-series analysis, e.g., Harvey (1993).
(e.g., a week). The length of integration time is Time-series analyses are all based on a particular
the temporal equivalent of sample volume and model.
compositing issues discussed in Section 3. A simple model for a time series can be written as
In the simplest type of study, measurements are
taken repeatedly at one fixed sampling location. Xt ¼ at þ Ct þ St þ «t , ð6:1Þ
Sampling designs for multiple locations are con- where Xt is the attribute of interest at time t. Here, at
sidered separately as a category of spatio-temporal represents the long run average which can be con-
designs. The sampling design questions include stant or a function of time (the temporal trend). Ct
choosing the type of design and frequency of and St represent cyclical components, for example
sampling, and whether or not to include new indi- diurnal and seasonal cycles, respectively. Finally, «t
viduals or objects during the sampling. represents the residual variation. Autocorrelation,
the correlation between observations in a temporal
Category C: Environmental impact assessment. sequence, can arise from correlations in any or all of
The third possible category is to assess the effect of the components: trend, cyclical, seasonal, or residual
a specific action, for example, the commissioning of variation.
a new nuclear power station. Here one is typically
interested in demonstrating a temporal trend and 6.1.3 Trend in a time series
associating it with a specific event. Observing a tem-
poral trend in the vicinity of a putative cause is weak Trend is typically understood as a long-term change.
evidence of an impact, as similar trends might be Trend is usually considered to be a change in the
occurring in areas unaffected by the putative cause. mean value of the attribute of interest, although
The goal of impact assessment designs is to better trend in other quantities (e.g., maximum or some
justify the association between a temporal trend measure of variation) could be considered. There
and a putative cause, where for example the trend are a number of common types of trends, including
is also examined in a control or comparison location linear change over time, exponential change, some
without the causal agent. The sampling design other non-linear change, or a step change in
issues include the number of sampling locations, as response to a short-lived contaminating or manage-
well as the temporal issues discussed previously for ment event. These types of trends are illustrated
categories A and B. in Figure 6.1.
Specific types of trends are quantified using dif-
Category D: Spatio-temporal sampling. ferent models. A linear trend is often summarized by
The final category introduces more general problems the slope, b, of a linear regression, Yt ¼ a þ bt þ «t,
with both a spatial and temporal context that where a and b are fitted constants, and t is time.
require design of the spatial sampling strategy An exponential trend is very often described by
linked also to sampling over time. Locations may or the slope of a linear regression on the ln(loge) trans-
may not be fixed. A common objective in radioeco- formed response, ln Yt ¼ a þ bt þ «t. Some unspeci-
logy is the estimation of the spatial distribution of fied non-linear trend can be described using a
radionuclide and how that distribution evolves with spline or other non-parametric regression function
time. Typical examples here include the design of (Bowman and Azzalini, 1997). The magnitude of a
a monitoring network around a nuclear facility or step change can be estimated by linear regression
mapping the temporal redistribution of Chernobyl when the time of the change is known. Change-point
fallout after its initial deposition in a watershed. methods are applicable when the time of the step
change is not known (Hinkley, 1970).
Given prior information about the type of trend,
6.1.2 Time-series data
magnitude of the trend and magnitude of the error
Observations taken over time are usually correlated. variation, it is possible to determine the appropriate
Observations taken at times close together are sample numbers to reliably detect the trend. Two
expected to be more similar to each other than are different sample numbers are needed: the number
observations taken at times further apart. The set of time points and the number of samples at each
of statistical methods called time-series analysis time point. The details of this calculation depend on
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TEMPORAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL SAMPLING PROBLEMS
Figure 6.1. Common types of temporal trends, including linear (upper left, a), exponential increase (upper right, b), non-linear (lower left, c)
and a step change (lower right, d). Scale units are arbitrary.
the type of trend and the temporal correlation in CO2 concentration measured monthly at Mauna
the errors (Gerrodette, 1987). Loa, Hawaii, USA. Figure 6.2 shows the observed
values for five years (January 1986 to December
6.1.4 Periodicity in a time series 1990), the same series with the trend removed, and
the same series with the trend and seasonal com-
Many biological and physical phenomena fluctuate
ponents removed. In the original data, values separ-
cyclically. This periodicity may be superimposed on
ated by one month are highly correlated (r ¼ 0.90).
a trend (Figure 6.2a). Seasonal effects are commonly
Some of this correlation represents trend; much of
observed (where the period of repetition is a year)
it represents the seasonal component. Removing
as are other cyclic effects for variations which are
the trend reduces the correlation between adjacent
repeated over a shorter interval (e.g., monthly or
months to r ¼ 0.83. Removing the trend and the
daily). The period is the length of the cycle (i.e., the
seasonal component reduces the correlation in the
amount of time for the pattern to repeat). Prior
residual variation to almost zero.
knowledge might suggest the presence of a period-
icity and also the appropriate period. From a sam-
pling design perspective, periodicity is a source of
important or sometimes extraneous variation. In a 6.2 SAMPLING ISSUES AND DESIGNS TO
given context it can be important to detect this ASSESS TEMPORAL TRENDS
periodicity, to reduce its effects by always sampl-
The fundamental issue in any temporal-sampling
ing at the same relative time in the cycle, or to
problem is the choice of time points to be measured.
average measurements over a full cycle. The ana-
The frequency of sampling should be appropriate
lysis of periodic temporal data is discussed in various
for the time-scale of the source and the time-scales
textbooks (e.g., Harvey, 1993).
for the organism or sampled medium of interest.
For example, dealing with a repetitive pulse
6.1.5 Example of trend, seasonal, and
source might require sampling on a very fine time-
random components of variation
scale to detect important temporal structure; for a
One important environmental time series that illus- continuous or sustained source that may not be
trates these three components is the atmospheric varying rapidly with time, sampling at longer time
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Figure 6.2. Trend and periodicity in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Upper graph shows
observed values (solid line) with the long-term trend (dashed line). Middle graph shows data with trend removed. Lower graph shows
residuals after removal of trend and periodicity. Tick marks on each abscissa represents 1 January of each year.
intervals might suffice. Migrations, activity cycles,

management patterns, and seasonality of stream
flows are examples for which time-scales of the
sampled medium require careful consideration.
Figure 6.3. Example of random and systematic sampling times.
6.2.1 Choice of sampling times
The next decision is the choice of sampling design. appropriate time period. The appropriate choice of
A basic decision is whether to use a random or a time period between samples depends on the goal
systematic set of time points at which samples are of the study and prior knowledge of periodicities
taken. In the systematic sampling case, the time (cyclical or seasonal effects). If the study goal is to
between observations is fixed and does not vary, describe a potential periodicity, then observations
while in the random case the time separation varies must be at least twice as frequent as the periodicity,
(Figure 6.3). and it is better to take samples at least four times
To take a random sample of times, the population as frequently as the periodicity. For example, an
of possible sampling times (e.g., from days 1 to N) is annual seasonal pattern can be detected using two
enumerated and the actual times (days 1 to n) to be samples per year, but is better characterized using
sampled are randomly chosen (e.g., by using a four or more samples per year. If the study goal is to
random-number table). At each randomly chosen describe long-term trend, i.e., trend over many
sampling time point, a sample (of plant, animal, or years, then sampling once per period (e.g., once per
abiotic material) is to be collected for measurement. year) may reduce the variability introduced by the
To take a systematic sample, the time period periodicity. In both cases, the first sampling time
between sampling is selected on the basis of practical should be chosen arbitrarily. Sampling at intervals
and other controlling criteria, then the time when that are slightly longer or shorter than the period
the first sample will be taken should be randomly is not recommended because of aliasing, which
selected, after which sampling is repeated at the introduces spurious periodic signals. If the study
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Figure 6.4. Illustration of problems caused by inadequate sampling of a periodic series, using the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide data
from Figure 6.2. Sampling every 12 months reveals the trend, but does not accurately reflect the mean (upper graph). Random
sampling times give reasonable estimates of the mean and trend, but variability is large (middle graph). Sampling every 13 months
gives a poor estimate of the trend (lower graph). Tick marks on each abscissa represents 1 January of each year.
goal is to estimate the mean over a certain time an individual sample cannot be measured more
interval, a systematic sample of periodic data is not than once. In the survey sampling literature, meas-
recommended (Cochran, 1977, pp. 217–219). Instead, uring new individual units is called the independent
a random sample should be used. This is often less design; repeatedly measuring the same individual
practical than a systematic sample, but providing units is called a panel design. Using a panel design
the numbers of samples is adequately large, a ran- and repeatedly measuring the same sampling units
dom sample avoids problems due to the periodicity can be very useful when feasible. This design
(see also Stewart-Oaten et al., 1986). The con- usually provides a more precise estimate of the
sequences of different choices of the sampling inter- change between measurements. Because the same
val are illustrated in Figure 6.4, using the five year individual units are sampled for all measurements,
CO2 series from Mauna Loa, Hawaii. If it is reason- the variability among units does not contribute to
able to assume there is no periodicity, the sampling the variability in the change. However, repeatedly
interval can be based on the desired number of measuring the same units may have some undesir-
samples and the length of the study. In this case, able consequences. The most important of these
the first time point should be chosen randomly. is the question of whether the sampled units are
representative of the population at each measure-
ment time. When sampling units are randomly
6.2.2 Choice of sampling units
chosen, the sample at each time point, if taken
The third decision is whether or not to repeatedly appropriately and if of adequate size, is expected to
measure the same sampling units. Should new be representative of the population at that time
sampling units be measured at each time point, point. Therefore, in a Category A study, in which
or should the same sampling units be measured individuals are selected independently from the
repeatedly? This is not an issue if the sampling population at each measurement time, representat-
and/or measurement is destructive, because then iveness at each time point is less questionable.
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If individual units are randomly sampled, the Supplemented-panel designs

sample is statistically representative of the
Most of the individuals are repeatedly measured at
population at the first time point. If the sample of
all times. A supplemental independent sample is
individuals is repeatedly measured, these units
randomly chosen and measured once. A new supple-
may no longer be representative of the population
mental sample is randomly chosen each time point.
after the first time point (Overton and Stehman,
These designs have been used in the U.S. Envir-
1996). This non-representativeness can be due to
onmental Monitoring and Assessment Program
mechanisms such as aging and population change.
(Olsen et al., 1999; Overton et al., 1991) for which
For simplicity of explanation, consider annually
the monitoring goal is to simultaneously estimate
repeated measurements of 137Cs on individually
current conditions and obtain precise estimates of
marked sheep. The objective of the study is to
trends. These designs might provide practical
estimate the temporal change in activity density in
advantages. They can be more efficient than the
the sheep herd. In the first year, animals to be
independent design; they reduce the aging and
studied are selected by a simple random sample.
other representativeness problems inherent in the
Hence, the first year’s measurements provide an
panel design. Data analysis for one of theses designs
unbiased estimate of the mean activity density at
is more complex and requires more assumptions,
the initial time. The problem is with measurements
particularly about the correlation between measure-
made in the second year. The age distribution of
ments made on the same individual. Further details
the animals in the sample may no longer match
on these designs and the appropriate data analysis
the age distribution in the population; none of the
can be found in Duncan and Kalton (1987).
animals in the sample are less than one year old. If
age is correlated with the quantity of interest,
6.2.4 Other practical issues
the average estimated from measurements in the
second year may no longer be representative of the One key issue is the comparability and consistency
mean in the population. The average change in of sampling and measurement protocols. Many
the sample in this case may not be representative monitoring programs continue for long periods of
of the mean difference between the first and second time, during which measurement methods, sam-
year. Similar problems occur when the population pling protocols, and laboratory procedures might
changes in some important characteristic, but the change. Quality assurance procedures that control
sample does not. or account for such changes are fundamental to
In summary, there is no single best choice of credible data and interpretation.
design. A panel design, i.e., repeatedly measuring Sampling designs that look good on paper can be
the same individuals, usually provides a more pre- difficult to implement in the field. One practical
cise estimate of the change over time, but aging, problem with designs that require repeated sam-
population change and other factors can raise pling of the same individuals or the same locations
serious questions about representativeness. is the potential difficulty in returning to precisely
the same location or the inability to locate a specific
individual. Appropriate solutions depend on the
6.2.3 Designs that combine independent
characteristics of the problem. If the spatial correla-
and repeated sampling
tion between nearby locations is strong and positive,
A variety of survey sampling designs combine then sampling a nearby site or moving the sampling
aspects of the independent and panel designs location by a small distance is reasonable. It is
(Duncan and Kalton, 1987; Skalski, 1990). In important to ensure that the new location is part
general, these designs measure some individuals of the same population being sampled. Similarly,
repeatedly over time to provide precise estimates small fluctuations in the sampling frequency (e.g.,
of the temporal change and sample some new sampling one day later than planned) are of little
individuals during the study to avoid problems consequence when there is a strong positive
with representativeness. These designs include the temporal correlation.
following. The inability to locate individuals is more serious.
A reasonable substitute is unlikely to be found, so
the observation will be missing. Missing data, for
Rotating-panel designs
any reason, can present difficulties in the data ana-
Individuals are measured a set number of times, lysis. Techniques exist for the estimation of missing
then replaced by new randomly chosen individuals. values when they cannot be avoided (Little and
The newly chosen individuals are also measured Rubin, 2002; Sande, 1982). Some of the simplest
repeatedly for the appropriate number of times. methods for the estimation of missing data in a
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time series can be described. It may be appropriate 6.3 SAMPLING ISSUES AND DESIGNS TO
to simply average the observed values around the DETECT IMPACT
missing data point (e.g., if there are daily data and
Detection and quantitative estimation of the impact
Thursday is missing from a week, then a simple
of a known event or situation is often the main
average of the Wednesday and Friday value of that
objective within the field of environmental-impact
week will often provide an adequate replacement
assessment. In this context, it is assumed that
value). An alternative approach would be to average
the site of potential impact is known, because any
the Thursday values in the week preceding and
change is associated with a known event. The diffi-
the week following the missing value. This latter
culty with detection of change is the natural variab-
approach would be preferable if there was a clear
ility in the population; thus any sampling design
periodicity (of length seven days) in the series.
must be such that it estimates the magnitude and
A more serious source of missing data occurs
pattern of natural variability, both in the spatial
when the population or community structure
and temporal sense (Osenberg et al., 1994).
changes. For example, it is possible that during a
Impact assessment is one of the most frequently
sampling program for mussels in the intertidal
stated objectives in temporal sampling, but under
zone, the population becomes so depleted at
this broad title, there are a number of different
sampling site that sampling at that location is no
types of impact (Underwood, 1998), some of which
longer feasible. Dealing with this problem is not
are illustrated in Figure 6.5. The first and most
simple. The appropriate solutions depend on the
common situation (Figure 6.5a) deals with disturb-
goals and design of the study. Some options might
ances affecting the mean level of an attribute, which
include (a) replacement by a species with compar-
can be seen as a simple step change in the mean
able biological characteristics, (b) replacement of
level, realized within one or two sampling time
the sampling location by one that is comparable but
steps. The second situation (Figure 6.5b) also deals
that includes the target species, (c) recording the
with disturbances affecting the mean level, but in a
observation as a missing value, or (d) recording a
gradual way over a significant number of time steps
zero value.
Figure 6.5. Illustration of different types of impact. Upper left (a) shows a step change in mean level and upper right (b) shows a trend in
mean level after the impact. Lower left (c) shows an increase in variability, while lower right (d) illustrates a change in the amplitude of
periodicity. The response and time axes are in arbitrary units.
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(previously described as a trend). In addition to the appropriate for other time periods. The BACI design
types of impact that cause changes in the mean can be used to detect changes in variability or
level, it is also possible to detect effects that change periodicity by analysing measures of variability or
the variation in the system. Figure 6.5c illustrates periodicity.
a change in the magnitude of temporal variation, i.e., Elaborations on the basic BACI design include
a change in the variation of the chosen attribute using multiple control sites to estimate spatial vari-
through time. Natural cycles may also be disturbed, ability and spatial trends, multiple samples from
as illustrated in Figure 6.5d. Finally, disturbances the impacted area to estimate variability within the
may also affect spatial variability, and one might impacted area, and very frequent sampling to better
find that the spatial pattern has changed over time. characterize the nature of the impact. These designs
Demonstration of a trend or change at a single and their characteristics are discussed by Stewart-
affected site does not necessarily imply causality. Oaten et al. (1986) and Underwood (1994).
The change may be a result of the known event or
something completely unrelated. The purpose of
6.4 NETWORK DESIGN
more complicated impact-assessment designs is
to exclude as many unrelated causes as possible. The objectives of a network design are to carry
While this never strictly proves that the known out ambient, trend, and regulatory monitoring for a
event causes the impact, it increases the likelihood particular environmental attribute, for example,
that it does by ruling out possible alternative activity density of tritium in air. Such networks
explanations (Underwood, 1998). are common in meteorology, air-quality monitoring,
and water-quality monitoring. They have been used
in monitoring radiation incidents and groundwater
6.3.1 Before-After-Control-Impact
contamination. The design issues for a network are
assessment designs and extensions
(a) the number of stations, (b) the locations of the
One of the most plausible alternative explanations of stations, and (c) the frequency of sampling (Meyer
a change is that the system changed ‘on its own’. et al. 1994; Sanders et al., 2000). Given the con-
That is, the observed change (from the before-event siderable ongoing costs of such networks, further
samples to the after-event samples) would have design issues include optimization of the numbers
happened even in the absence of the known impact. and locations of stations to obtain maximum
One simple impact-assessment design evaluates information for minimum cost (Christakos and
this alternative by estimating the change at a con- Killam, 1993; Loaiciga et al., 1992).
trol site presumed to be unaffected by the known In the UK and in many other European countries,
event. Data are collected at four combinations of such systems were developed following the Cherno-
sites and times: affected and unaffected sites, each byl accident. Individual governments decided how
sampled before the impact and after the impact their systems should be designed. For example, tra-
(Campbell and Stanley, 1966). This design is com- deoffs between small numbers of stations with very
monly known as a Before-After-Control-Impact sensitive equipment, and large numbers of totally
(BACI) design. Data from the affected, or impacted, automated stations using less sensitive detectors
site provide an estimate of the change in the were considered. The design of such networks
impacted area. Data from the unaffected, or control, may not be based solely on statistical criteria. For
site provide an indicator of the behavior that could example, provision of an ‘early-warning’ in the
be expected at the impact site had there been no event of a nuclear incident in a different country
event. The impact of the known event is estimated would suggest siting the stations at the borders of
by the interaction between sites and times, i.e., the the country. Convenience also plays a major role in
difference between the change at the impacted site siting monitoring equipment (e.g., airports, building
and the change at the control site. The BACI design roofs, research laboratories, etc.). Thus the first
controls for additive temporal change unrelated to issues to consider in the design are perhaps socio-
the known event. political factors and the specific objectives for the
The standard BACI design focuses on changes in network; the statistical issues come into play once
the mean response. It is most effective at detecting a these issues and goals are defined.
step change, i.e., an impact such as that shown in
Figure 6.5a. It can be used to detect more gradual
6.5 EXAMPLES OF SAMPLING TO DESCRIBE
impacts (e.g., Figure 6.5b) if the results are inter-
TRENDS
preted carefully. The BACI design estimates the
average impact for a specific time period. When In the following sections, examples of some typical
the impact changes over time, this estimate is not temporal sampling problems are provided. These
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examples illustrate the general issues discussed in definition of the human population groups of inter-
Section 3 and the specific issues for temporal data est (critical groups) and their diet. For sampling
discussed in Sections 6.1 and 6.2. Many of the purposes, only the marine part of the food-chain
examples are representative of environmental is considered. The target population is fish and
monitoring programs that often implicitly assume a shellfish caught and consumed within defined
series of measurements over time. Typical objectives marine regions. The sampling strategy incorporates
of monitoring programs are: to assess actual or the environmental context through identification
potential doses to critical groups, to check on source of sampling locations in those regions where most
conditions, to improve understanding of mechan- fish are caught. This might include coastal waters,
isms, rates and processes, to help produce predictive distant waters, and close-in waters (say, within
models, to establish trends, to quantify variability, 10 km of the source). The second component of
and to assess ecological impact. the sampling strategy is the definition of the
sampling frequency, which might be monthly, quar-
6.5.1 Sampling fish from a lake terly, or of some other frequency. The frequency
of sampling in this case can be related to the prox-
In this example, the objective is monitoring of 137Cs
imity to the source. Distant locations, where it is
levels in fish in a specific lake following the Cherno-
presumed that changes in concentration occur very
byl accident, and estimation of the trend in average
137 slowly, are sampled less frequently, while locations
Cs activity densities in fish over time. The target
close to the source are sampled more frequently.
population might be brown trout in a specific, single
The sampling frequency can also be linked to the
basin lake, and the temporal coverage might be
discharge pattern, if known. The collection might
1986–1996. The environmental context involves a
include fish from commercial catches and from
diffuse source (Chernobyl fallout), and 137Cs is
specific sampling trips. In this example, the exact
the radionuclide of interest. It is difficult, if not
sampling location is not fixed, but rather is within a
impossible, to relocate individuals, and therefore,
region, and sampling units represent the popula-
new individuals will be sampled at each time point.
tion of fish in that region. The sampling frequency
There is a need to consider age/size/weight of fish,
might not be exact and not all species of interest
because these factors affect food habits, physiology,
might be available for sampling on each occasion.
and hence, 137Cs accumulation. In terms of sampling
As in the first example, assumptions about size
strategy, it might make sense to conduct trout-
class and other attributes must be made about
length stratified random sampling, recognizing
the populations from which the fish are being
however that most fish sampling methods are not
caught.
likely to be truly random. A necessary assumption
for the stratified sampling is that the length/age
structure of brown trout within the lake is not 6.5.3 Trend and seasonality of 14C in
changing with time. seaweed, and variation in outdoor radon
One sample each year taken in a given month
An example of a study of trend and seasonality
might be sufficient if the only goal is to describe the
comes from measurements of 14C activity density in
trend. The number of fish to be sampled depends on
marine biota over the period of operation of the
the variability between individuals and on the
Sellafield nuclear waste reprocessing plant (Cook
desired precision. If a secondary goal is to describe
et al., 2004). The study focused on seaweed, because
any seasonal pattern, several samples are needed
it is widely available and 14C activity had been
per year.
routinely assayed in monthly samples. The target
population might be identified as the seaweed grow-
6.5.2 Food-chain monitoring
ing in a specific bay or within a given distance from
As a second example, a typical food-chain monitoring the plant. In describing the environmental context,
situation as described in the annual reports of the one first needs to know about the physiological
Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF), growth cycle of the seaweed, the discharge from the
UK, is considered. The objectives are to determine plant, and the expected behavior of the radionuclide
the radiation dose to consumers based on the con- in this particular ecosystem. Currently available
sumption of marine foodstuffs and to describe any data suggest that there is some cyclical fluctuation
changes with time (i.e., to assess temporal trend). in 14C activity and a large step change in both the
The context of this problem involves the British mean and variance in 1993 (Figure 6.6).
Nuclear Fuels complex at Sellafied, UK, which dis- A monthly sampling frequency was chosen for
charges radionuclides to the marine environment, both practical and biological reasons: other import-
specifically the Irish Sea. The problem requires the ant data (e.g., discharges) were reported monthly,
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6.5.4 Whole-body monitoring

As a hypothetical example, the objective could be
to describe the whole-body radiation dose rate to a
population following an accident such as Chernobyl
and how the dose rate changed with time. Specific-
ally, one might ask what the maximum dose rate
was, and when it occurred. Monitoring a human
population after a nuclear incident requires selec-
tion of a sample of representative individuals from
the population (see Sections 3 and 4). The next sam-
pling issue is the frequency of whole-body counting
of the selected individuals. The times (dates) on
which an individual is to be measured can be chosen
using one of the sampling designs in Section 3. The
most common choice is a systematic design. Each
Figure 6.6. Plot of 14C measurements in monthly seaweed
individual is measured every month or every week
samples from 1984 till 1999. Evidence of a cyclical component for the duration of the study. Simple random
and a step change around 1993 is apparent. samples and stratified random samples are less fre-
quently used. For this example, it would be appro-
priate to consider using an adaptive sampling-time
sequence, for instance, during the early days after
ship availability for sampling was limited, and
the accident, more frequent monitoring would be
seaweed growth is seasonal. Hence, the temporal
appropriate, and the sampling frequency could be
sample was systematic, with 12 observations per
reduced later when changes were less dramatic.
annual cycle. The remaining sampling decisions
The target population in such an example might be
were the choice of locations and the choice of plants
all individuals living in a specific political region or
at a location. Some of the reasonable alternatives
country.
for the choice of locations are to always sample the
same location, to use some sampling design to
6.5.5 Long-term trend of radiocesium in
select new locations each month, or to use some
milk after Chernobyl
combination. The choice of plants from each location
might be important if plant size is associated with Voigt et al. (1996) describe a temporal study of 137Cs
14
C activity, as age is associated with both. in milk following Chernobyl. The specific objective
Additional questions might include the sample size was to describe trends of 137Cs activity density in
(number of locations and number of plants at each milk following the accident and to assess dose to
location) and possible pooling of samples to increase persons consuming the milk. A single farm was
measurement sensitivity and reduce plant-to-plant used to provide the milk samples. From the date of
variation. the accident, bulk milk samples were collected twice
The objectives in the second example were the a day; after 1 month, the milk samples were collected
estimation of the average activity densities of radon daily; and after 16 months, the milk samples were
in outdoor air (long-term), investigation of any long- collected about once a month. In this particular
term trend, and determination of any seasonal pat- example, the sampling frequency changed over
tern (Hötzl and Winkler, 1994). Air sampling was time, to reflect (a) higher sampling frequency in the
carried out at a single site, with the pump being period when the source term was rapidly changing,
run continuously to collect radon-daughter products and (b) lower sampling frequency when the milk
on a filter. The filter was then collected three times transfer system had stabilized somewhat. The target
per week. The alpha and beta activities were recor- population was all 1 litre milk samples from cows
ded continuously and the hourly averaged data on a specific farm in a specified region.
stored. The results were then studied for seasonal The single farm was also intensively studied at a
variation (based on individual monthly average val- later period and a time series plot of milk data from
ues) and diurnal variation (based on hourly mean 1993 is shown in Figure 6.7. The first 16 observa-
values). The authors also investigated the existence tions are daily and then the sampling frequency
of long-term variation (considered as a trend or cyc- changed to every second day. One can assess the
lic pattern). The authors chose the simple design of trend over the time period, and there is clear evid-
a single fixed-location station and a recording of ence of a steady decrease, however there is evidence
measurements every hour. of an unexpected peak at the end of September,
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measured repeatedly. To characterize this seasonal

cycle, several years of measurement were required.
The authors chose a monthly sampling frequency,
and the observation period was 7 years. The target
population in included all semi-rural locations of
areal deposition in a defined region 10 km north of
Munich, Germany; the fixed sampling location and
the air passing through the sampler were assumed
representative of the air passing during a fixed
time period of one month. The environmental
context describes the specific radionuclide, collec-
tion method (the required amount of deposition
and hence, integration time), local meteorology,
processes by which 7Be is formed, and factors
Figure 6.7. Temporal data during 1993 for 137
Cs in milk (Voigt
influencing its deposition.
et al., 1996).
6.6 EXAMPLES OF SAMPLING FOR

IMPACT ASSESSMENT
This type of problem is characterized by identifica-
tion of a specific activity or source whose environ-
mental impact must be assessed, i.e., the objective
is to identify and characterise a change between
two periods of time in the average, or variability of
radionuclide activity density in environmental
media.
6.6.1 Monitoring of a nuclear power station

This particular example is concerned with detecting
and quantifying any impact of a new nuclear power
station and an evaluation of its impact on the local
radiation environment. It is important that a
Figure 6.8. Linear trend model fit to the temporal data of spatially defined field survey of the site and its
Figure 6.7 (Voigt et al., 1996). surrounding environment be made prior to construc-
tion of the power station. This might be accomp-
lished using a portable gamma-radiation detector
lasting several days. The best fitting linear trend to provide a quantitative statement of the baseline,
is shown in Figure 6.8. There is still considerable spatially averaged ambient gamma-radiation field.
variation around the best fitting line, but it appears The first sampling issue is the location of the meas-
that the 137Cs activity density decreased by an urement sites. Regarding this issue, one might
average of 0.00227 Bq kg1 per day. It is worth expect gradients based on distance and direction
considering whether a linear trend is in fact the from the proposed power station. Maximum levels
most appropriate trend model to consider; other might be expected close to outfalls or vent stacks
more complex forms might capture the pattern and along prevailing downwind or downstream
more closely. directions. Such considerations would clearly influ-
ence the spatial-sampling design. An evaluation of
station impact can then be achieved by monitoring
6.5.6 Long-term temporal dependence of
7 the gamma-radiation field before and after the
Be deposition
operation of the plant at a defined set of locations.
The objective in this study was to characterize the The simplest design would involve a repeat of the
seasonal variation in 7Be deposition and to observe baseline, pre-operational survey at a given time fol-
its behavior and change through time (Hötzl and lowing the commencement of the operation (allowing
Winkler, 1987). The variations of interest in this a simple paired design and a before-after com-
case were seasonal; therefore the total amount of parison). A full monitoring survey would require
7
Be deposited (both wet and dry) in large tubs was repeated measurements on a number of occasions
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(e.g., perhaps every 6 months, or more frequently if the natural source is assumed uniformly distributed,
there is evidence of measurable releases). The sam- but the objective is to understand the temporal
pling issues are the numbers, frequency, and spatial distribution pattern. In the example of 137Cs from
locations at which to make observations. Using per- Chernobyl (Sections 6.5.1 and 6.5.5), the source of
manent markers, or GPS data, it would be possible radionuclides is spatially heterogeneous and vary-
to make repeated measurements at exactly the same ing in time. However the chosen sampling unit (the
locations on each survey within a defined spatial/ cow or the fish) integrates over space. The sampling
temporal monitoring network. Subsequent follow- frequency is adapted to match the source variation.
up surveys could be carried out at different locations In the whole-body monitoring example (Section
if justified by new information. 6.5.4), a sample of n individuals from the population
are selected for whole-body counting. The prac-
6.6.2 Post-release trends of ticalities of monitoring people might suggest that
contamination levels those closer to the centre of the nuclear incident
will be more frequently monitored. In the example
Consider an example of monitoring the recovery of a
of marine food-chain monitoring (Section 6.5.2),
bay after the cessation of phosphate-ore processing,
a point source that discharges radionuclides to the
with discharge history of waste water with many
marine environment is of interest; therefore, the
technologically enhanced natural radionuclides into
sampling locations are chosen relative to the location
the bay. In this example, there is a clearly defined
of the source and based on knowledge of the radio-
population of sampling units, namely, all water,
nuclide dispersal mechanisms in the Irish Sea. In
sediment, and biota within the bay. The goal could
this example, the main objective was to estimate
be to observe the rate of decrease in activity densities
the average as well as maximum dose to human
of the natural radionuclides following the cessation
consumers of marine organisms. The source itself
of the discharges. Here again, the sampling frame
will vary with time, but in this example the sampling
would require the measurement of representative
frequency might be adjusted to the known frequency
samples at given times, and at possibly different
and magnitudes of discharge. Example 6.6.1 on
locations within the bay. The sampling frequency
monitoring a nuclear power station is typical for
might be monthly for biota (because of physiological
comparing trends at multiple locations with baseline
processes) and quarterly or even annually for water
or pre-operational data to estimate the impact of
and sediment samples, depending on the flushing
a known source.
time for the bay and for the rates of sedimentation
Additional influence of the environmental context
and re-suspension. If the flushing and sedimenta-
on sampling design is particularly apparent when
tion processes differed geographically within the
dealing with biological sampling units. It is known
bay, the spatial context would be important in
that the levels of activity density in the sample
designing the monitoring program.
material may manifest periodic change with time,
as a result, for example, of seasonal cycles in shell-
fish physiology or growth rates of aquatic plants,
6.7 GENERAL COMMENTS ABOUT
independently of any changes in releases from the
EXAMPLES AND CONCLUSIONS
source. Therefore, such environmental knowledge
In all the examples above, measurements through should be used in designing the sampling program.
time have been made to estimate any trend, or to It is difficult to provide generic guidance for
detect any change with time. The environmental temporal and spatio-temporal sampling problems
context of the problem affects the nature of the because individual cases vary in objective and envir-
sampling to be carried out. In many cases, a point onmental context. The general principles laid out in
source of radionuclide release (due to anthropogenic Section 3 remain vital. Frequently, practical issues
activity) to the environment has been considered; can limit sampling designs, for example, certain
in others a distributed source of either natural kinds of sampling equipment must be located at
or anthropogenic radioactivity was used as the sites where infrastructure exists. If instruments
example. The source might itself vary in time, require manual manipulation, e.g., an air sampler
perhaps requiring a modification in the sampling whose filter must be removed, then this may limit
design after a given study or monitoring program the location and number of sites that can be visited.
has started. In the radon example (Section 6.5.3), There might be economic, social or political reasons
there was a distributed natural source of radon and for placing sampling equipment in some locations,
the objective was the estimation of the long-term irrespective of what might be optimal for a model-
average, while in the 7Be example (Section 6.5.6), based network design.

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7 GENERAL SUMMARY
In general, sampling for radionuclides in the envi- taken. Whether or not this distribution is truly
ronment is not unlike sampling for other attributes reflective of that actually existing in the population
of environmental media, nor for other types of depends on the representativeness of the sampling,
survey sampling. The principles discussed here are as well as the adequacy of the numbers of samples
elaborated in textbooks and papers about environ- taken and analyzed. Natural variability in radionu-
mental sampling. Good discussions of the statistical clide activity densities is caused by ever-present
aspects of sampling include the general sampling variations in the processes that control radionuclide
textbooks by Cochran (1977) and Thompson (1992), transport in the environment. Natural variability
the environmental statistics textbook by Gilbert is often, though not always, a dominant source of
(1987), and many scientific papers. The present uncertainty in the estimated activity densities of
report cannot provide details on all methods of radionuclides in environmental compartments.
sampling. Successful application of the concepts in
the present report to specific problems will likely
7.2 THE MEANING OF STATISTICAL
require reference to specific texts or published
SAMPLING
papers, and the help of a statistical consultant.
Sampling for radionuclides in the environment is Statistical sampling is a process that allows infer-
carried out for many purposes, including estimation ences, or conclusions about properties of a large col-
of certain characteristics, such as the average mass lection of physical or biological objects (commonly
activity density (concentration) of a radionuclide described as the population), to be made from
(Bq kg 1) in sediment, water, or biological tissue observations made on a relatively small number of
within a defined area, the areal activity density of individual objects belonging to the population (the
radionuclide deposition (Bq m 2) in a given type of sample). Statistical sampling is conceptually differ-
soil, etc. Many experimental and monitoring pro- ent from the activity of merely collecting specimens.
grams have multiple objectives that must be clearly Specimens can be collected and measured to
specified before the sampling program is designed, describe characteristics of those specimens only,
because different purposes require different sam- with no attempt to generalize to the population. In
pling strategies and sampling intensities in order conducting statistical sampling, one is attempting to
to be efficient, and to permit general inferences. generalize to the population. The use of valid statis-
Statistical sampling is pertinent and necessary tical-sampling techniques increases the chance that
in radioecology because of the natural stochastic a set of specimens (the sample) is collected in a way
variation that occurs in all environmental media, that is representative of the population. Statistical
and the fact that this variation is usually much lar- sampling also allows a quantification of the precision
ger than variations associated with measurement with which conclusions can be drawn about the
uncertainties. population.
7.1 VARIATION 7.3 THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT

It is well known that soil or sediment samples taken Sampling is seldom carried out in the complete
side-by-side, from different parts of the same plant, absence of information about the objects of interest
or from different animals in the same environment, and the characteristics or attributes to be described.
usually exhibit at least slightly different activity The environmental context provides four general
densities of a given radionuclide. Sometimes, these sorts of information:
differences are quite large, ranging up to an order of
magnitude or more. The distribution of results will the nature of the population (e.g., the physical or
provide an estimate of the variability inherent in the biological material of interest, its spatial extent,
population of samples that, theoretically, could be its temporal stability, etc.);
the expected behavior and environmental pro- sampling designs and offers conceptual guide-
perties of the radionuclide of interest in the lines concerning their applicability in example
population members; environmental contexts. There are many different
the sampling tool that will be used (how the popu- sampling designs or schemes, which vary in terms
lation will be sampled) and hence the sampling of their practicality and applicability. The main
unit (the individual selected from the population statistical sampling schemes that are widely used
for measurement); and in radioecology are briefly described below.
the expected pattern and magnitude of variability
in the observations. 7.6.1 Judgmental sampling
Such prior information is crucial in defining a This scheme is based purely on judgement.
sampling scheme that meets the needs of the scient- Judgmental sampling can be problematic in that
ific program or regulatory goals and/or requirements the sample may not be unbiased, precision cannot
for monitoring. Pilot programs and literature be quantified, and representativeness is unknown.
searches can be very useful in obtaining such Thus, ultimately, it is not possible to evaluate the
information. accuracy or bias of any estimator based on such a
sample. However, judgmental sampling, if applied
with expert knowledge, can have important benefits.
7.4 REPRESENTATIVENESS Judgmental sampling can sometimes be applied
effectively in cases where the highest expected activ-
The collection of samples should be representative ity densities might be the object of the sampling,
of all samples that could be taken from a defined for example the worst-case exposure scenario near
population. In other words, representative samples the end of a discharge pipe or other source.
should provide a true reflection of the population.
If limited in number, samples should contain only
7.6.2 Simple random sampling
typical members, or with adequately large sample
numbers, sampling should cover the whole popula- Simple random sampling involves enumeration of
tion, including the less-typical members. A represen- each member in a defined target population and
tative sample should reflect the population not only a random selection of members (samples) to be
in terms of the attribute of interest, but also in terms collected for a measurement. With this form of
of any incidental factors that affect the attribute sampling, every sampling unit in the population
of interest. Representativeness of environmental has, in theory, an equal probability of being included
samples is difficult to demonstrate and is usually in the sample. The resulting estimator of the popu-
considered justified or achieved by the procedure lation characteristic of interest based on such a
used to select the samples. sample will be unbiased, but it may not be efficient,
in either the statistical (small variance) or practical
(obtaining results with small cost and minimal
7.5 STEPS IN DEVELOPING A SAMPLING amount of time) senses. Simple random sampling
DESIGN designs are easy to describe but can be quite difficult
to achieve in practice.
The previous ideas lead to the following generalized
five-step protocol for designing a sampling pro-
7.6.3 Stratified sampling
gramme:
Stratified-sampling designs provide two important
Define the objectives and questions to be
advantages over simple random samples: estimates
answered.
are often more efficient and cost-effective than sim-
Summarize the environmental context for the
ple random samples, and good estimates can be
quantities being sampled and measured.
made for interesting subdivisions of the population.
Identify the target population, including spatial
The population is divided into strata that are more
and temporal extent.
homogeneous than the entire population. Usually,
Select an appropriate sampling design.
the proportion of sample observations in each stra-
Document the sampling design and its rationale.
tum is similar to the stratum proportion in the popu-
lation, but this is not a requirement. Stratified
sampling is more complex than simple random sam-
7.6 SAMPLING APPROACHES
pling, and estimates of the population quantities can
The major part of the present report is concerned be biased if the stratum properties or proportions are
with the description of some commonly used incorrectly specified.
78 AAPM Member Copy
GENERAL SUMMARY
7.6.4 Systematic sampling been slanted more toward the concepts and
principles of good sampling practice rather than
Systematic sampling usually involves sampling at
data analysis.
regular spatial and/or temporal intervals along a
line or at nodes of a defined grid and is probably
the most commonly used method for field sampling.
7.8 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CONTEXT OF
It is generally unbiased as long as the starting point
ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLING
is randomly selected and the systematic rules are
followed with care. Systematic sampling is often Situations are frequently encountered in which
more practical than random sampling because the plants, animals, and abiotic media have a spatial
procedures are relatively easy to implement in prac- structure. For example, many populations and
tice, but this approach may miss important features ecosystem components are spatially organized, and
if the quantity being sampled varies periodically and distributed through space unevenly in recognizable
the sampling scheme has the same periodicity. patterns. Also, the attributes of populations and
ecosystem components normally change over time.
7.6.5 Other sampling designs The concept of relatedness, quantified as a covari-
ance or correlation (or association) becomes impor-
Other sampling schemes include two-stage sam-
tant in the design of a sampling scheme that involves
pling, in which primary sampling units are selected
the variables of space and/or time. The possible rela-
randomly, then the primary unit is sub-divided and
tionship between nearby sampling units can there-
the sub-units might be selected randomly. Cluster
fore violate the assumption of independence between
sampling is frequently applied in situations in which
members of the target population, which is the
members of the population are found in clusters
keystone of many methods of statistical analysis
or colonies. In this form of sampling, clusters of
and simple sampling schemes. In order to reflect
individuals are selected randomly and all individu-
the spatial and temporal organization of the popula-
als within each cluster are sampled and measured.
tion, sampling must be structured in space/time,
Cluster sampling is a convenient and practical
and this structure should reflect, if known, the
design if individuals naturally group within the
related spatial/temporal nature of the population
population. Adaptive sampling is most commonly
units. The spatial covariance structure is often esti-
used when the sampling units aggregate or cluster
mated based on the variogram (in the temporal con-
together, such as plants that form communities
text, the exact analogy is the correlogram). The
and are otherwise relatively sparse or rare. Double
variogram is a representation, usually graphical,
sampling is used in a situation in which one charac-
that shows co-variation of the differences between
teristic may be difficult or expensive to measure
measurements as a function of the distance, h, sepa-
but another related characteristic is simple or easy
rating the sample locations. The variogram can be
to measure. A double sample involves making a
used to infer values at un-sampled locations from
relatively large number of analyses using the more
nearby sampled locations
efficient technique, selecting a few from this sample
on which to make the more expensive analysis, and
then using the relationship to infer to the population
7.9 SPATIAL SAMPLING
using the entire sample.
The scale of spatial sampling tasks should be clearly
expressed and this has three different aspects: the
7.7 CALCULATION OF STATISTICAL extent of the area to be sampled, the size of the
QUANTITIES sampling unit, and the sample spacing and fre-
quency. The extent of the area to be sampled defines
Relatively simple and straightforward formulas for the population about which inferences will be made.
estimating population averages, totals, proportions, This will be defined by the context and purpose of the
percentiles, and ratios are available for data study. Some commonly used sampling schemes are
obtained from nearly all the sampling schemes based on defined quadrats and transects as the basic
described above. Likewise, statistical formulas for sampling unit. In addition, the number of sampling
estimating the variance associated with such units to collect and their spatial frequency must be
numerical estimates are readily available. The pre- defined. Random and systematic sampling is often
sent report provides some of the common simpler used in the spatial setting. The problem of spatial
formulas, but has not focussed on providing details. periodicity occurs occasionally, and this has implica-
References are provided to guide the reader where tions for the sampling strategy adopted. Consider-
appropriate. The focus in the present report has able care should be taken when designing sampling
79 AAPM Member Copy
schemes where spatial cycles might exist. Often, a information concerning the correlation structure
priori knowledge will suggest when a periodicity that can then be used to develop sampling schemes
(and at what frequency) might be present. Such where the observations are almost independent.
knowledge is critical in determining the sampling Comparability and consistency of sampling and
frequency. measurement raise potential problems with data
collected with different measurement and sampling
protocols, and with laboratory procedures that
7.10 TEMPORAL SAMPLING change with time.
Sampling may also have a temporal frame. The key
sampling issues are when and how frequently to
7.11 FINAL COMMENTS
sample. A basic question concerns the total length
of the observation period, particularly when the sys- The general principles and five-step procedure for
tem behaves in a complex way and has many scales good sampling practice described in the present
of temporal variation. Periodicity is a problem report are important to the successful achievement
frequently encountered in the time domain (e.g., of the scientific or regulatory objectives. Design of
seasonal cycles in crops). The assumption that any sampling schemes requires problem-specific envi-
environmental system will manifest cycles, not all ronmental knowledge, statistical knowledge about
of which can be predicted before beginning the the choice of the sampling design and practical
sampling protocol, and whose periodicity is not knowledge concerning implementation. The number
known, makes the design of a temporal-sampling of sampling units depends on the natural variation
frame difficult. There is the possibility that a cyclical in the radionuclide of interest within the population
effect could be completely missed. The environ- and the precision required in the inference to the
mental context and specific knowledge of physical population characteristic of interest. The present
or biological processes that are cyclical are vital. report has attempted, through statistical guidelines
Failure to apply such knowledge might result in and examples, to provide a general conceptual
sampling the same population during the same understanding. Specific, detailed methods of data
period on each sampling occasion, or in making analysis are, however, beyond the scope of the pre-
observations at the same time each day. The closer sent report and readers are referred to the spe-
together in time, the more likely it is that sampling cialised sampling literature and also advised to
units are related, and the less independent the seek expert statistical advice. This will help ensure
observations become. This can lead to the loss of that a sampling effort will result in the acquisition
information and hence to reduced statistical power. of real knowledge, rather than the accumulation of
A pilot study can be used to provide preliminary meaningless numbers.

80 AAPM Member Copy
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84 AAPM Member Copy
APPENDIX 1. 10,000 RANDOM DIGITS
27930 55779 44428 21049 56853 84913 79981 85714 57452 74779
47370 18265 67672 43595 27926 24184 13081 82875 74179 57768
14433 99803 20323 44071 18680 05337 31452 48345 99703 88236
31760 64142 23602 84225 07398 79073 89637 28992 63422 22263
88259 53839 25677 71046 38953 87298 03209 75131 64722 38005
79632 17900 58909 00353 16449 66068 79439 84387 84011 74171
05203 27226 15746 16665 06912 74548 63379 95675 52008 64147
88480 50272 41678 05934 78147 20467 49201 55083 78748 18928
72103 14641 24744 02326 29803 51098 49469 45782 43905 36064
62323 90780 89151 45409 73263 28402 17704 14566 62316 85121
40333 12744 65121 74972 36933 78019 66860 69961 91547 57014
81068 87258 58153 47501 76956 31609 35427 57583 71352 71483
78737 25062 40233 49191 88817 59026 44815 12730 59159 40755
57225 05654 45928 51560 78839 12688 95943 06136 40605 19427
97448 55305 34130 57918 16001 08146 48534 88267 53434 63817
56871 39457 80396 93538 01124 17600 04879 13572 68753 39006
78194 19884 69681 50066 34483 17883 84957 34231 90709 05448
98424 49872 14438 89679 69281 90565 57831 61941 92921 88356
48566 96609 45338 62793 51238 87802 78191 80404 35763 39843
34467 98786 29492 83795 37397 36508 91821 16623 74391 99588
38528 72505 18420 36073 83496 65629 45630 17723 15263 31050
30778 66424 05079 54560 60150 08540 99740 82865 98638 00508
56992 28307 23880 58520 22823 38712 31758 59103 84949 19298
11522 75232 18186 17205 90374 58295 70959 33689 73425 14068
99509 73230 62603 99832 53796 50934 73097 67270 52830 42601
50519 80025 39800 35671 47842 44845 30377 60487 48535 60082
10740 16493 73226 49300 38388 37953 84348 31326 74645 50302
51258 78153 97372 04849 11970 70585 77714 82435 23863 27009
34345 71492 85599 63997 92575 16239 26878 47030 89279 22123
95455 68165 97100 49673 34470 92469 42318 59888 69557 99419
81763 73348 95305 34349 04877 88413 48836 61111 11291 21002
44656 94897 11258 12434 37176 81307 91918 24455 87619 13374
14769 29964 26009 33988 92954 35754 06118 55278 37360 57122
67299 03968 09723 63095 82940 31478 34973 64585 68814 32325
57068 86785 57160 38199 86086 66798 13292 60425 91848 66601
83659 97259 50224 49449 61026 28046 91057 36895 44170 96035
90962 75353 18188 98743 11228 44516 69729 89177 19314 17950
17456 17879 77300 19319 93676 77106 84019 67088 93164 18365
52130 40050 69789 03027 89791 09499 23188 33220 95843 87144
94269 02294 36225 39427 05659 11851 40981 93386 25594 33138
96904 46740 00115 49004 02493 06337 12344 60374 76922 31212
17066 48273 25433 78105 69251 82013 18613 43236 80257 99181
18346 58467 41051 18833 21596 00688 33550 36393 55008 41056
69328 90811 60084 35443 45565 43467 93644 66592 77652 42360
80525 90600 03884 74462 26049 75782 72477 41297 04950 57024
86732 11779 17570 60764 06860 10565 54518 65472 26734 76762
84362 51006 12960 32475 28454 56100 30319 02623 53666 22540
93934 27748 44120 96839 75140 67429 45781 69821 10680 51514
23410 92845 27575 46092 23758 51610 24137 67922 28032 43085
35553 06128 25261 06940 50157 03034 85546 97156 98912 41467
08621 48185 17957 02612 82414 20290 55139 94875 91914 63725
66941 30508 83280 34244 22368 42184 99477 53855 16070 38991
62288 54726 94257 41308 07354 15271 92567 99264 54244 82165
87566 01905 02984 69501 09025 55711 15197 41596 32554 42844
38699 34575 73691 86535 75788 42908 48743 02965 71066 13823
54651 35959 70393 89398 34689 94669 41713 20507 27561 64740
13032 58230 10771 16856 92501 47926 37288 14501 69836 03129
30654 42389 77746 10512 91134 34988 18072 26053 06228 84310
81756 50943 43701 35044 32676 20606 90022 73611 76651 69959
38644 82703 28084 47524 05574 34517 96381 35521 32641 36681
65325 40575 45285 50044 69583 21664 61982 32267 85266 76573
48364 33986 12035 26197 16753 88833 50465 81181 50582 68392
30743 82673 56942 16490 24835 90776 37253 14986 72791 47785
17661 06315 62559 79005 54717 37873 27366 73792 38139 52221
36890 97972 71156 33100 26519 65078 28684 00811 94532 30901
70645 98604 49089 71939 00603 33534 78366 11403 41196 03203
58566 37775 75490 92067 01004 17100 67702 36989 15042 77341
03607 74070 76173 23365 20315 72489 26937 57079 50196 66664
98975 05991 98458 71677 28373 95310 99426 81923 21581 30189
99364 19518 18615 58720 73808 96065 84473 29364 91815 30942
45106 64767 82989 47663 46084 18337 57813 36151 43047 61947
09974 41579 49637 09879 14509 67795 45955 13110 13281 52027
63461 87838 58300 39425 62587 43511 98713 51330 03007 06301
29308 77605 99347 25945 44738 20159 27377 27490 51336 11127
06307 13594 01967 16867 22467 93158 25969 67625 79746 86776
40296 89860 35521 10090 51909 63021 60905 94701 33979 02239
24858 14098 53518 56230 80917 99050 69495 60910 28456 96251
83848 26635 69042 25271 73361 67885 68904 04734 11948 39619
13039 07383 26278 79562 97510 88443 25765 17587 59451 46710
42881 38709 00462 70465 48836 83622 36762 86229 37076 77539
68566 28460 90917 97071 55846 12500 49136 04952 12160 62582
22894 64469 18680 75900 57747 02294 45361 20807 11398 28292
55749 30027 00160 85176 40910 95597 96971 29781 56848 70524
07369 30686 74942 96163 77159 91767 35954 64866 65799 74781
37864 52871 85208 10680 14625 79752 27242 19878 51054 87331
58773 45524 64518 11357 47971 12624 84931 75702 52819 85738
92916 23150 21970 84846 77290 80588 38036 77722 86313 00185
21961 73932 80658 90589 41727 54015 59425 25645 44504 16931
08597 81640 08967 79600 31427 49617 86161 37327 67098 17256
02812 43639 52171 44833 80713 85183 60542 99808 56169 24540
00810 88959 61791 33173 09303 57425 57453 18987 51856 93416
80767 80219 57851 08489 13374 97245 13092 71632 69284 38448
05179 05632 43875 25899 48076 89625 91550 14623 76419 17084
59741 32730 73554 17581 02895 79812 02947 20347 24085 05617
98747 22155 34849 52134 79043 38171 41861 98220 25420 04651
74890 80596 28496 99859 59530 56381 48431 12557 35915 74249
94842 40301 36549 31092 33472 83969 57699 20245 14866 83653
06679 31740 66722 89368 96304 14036 51780 97685 47286 97363
50694 08572 52619 93231 35041 04271 07765 24047 21435 34000
53814 14334 98431 80538 26041 00952 10811 56938 51661 06848
57268 32047 66686 25953 61329 08134 70479 33638 45894 14087
77648 18153 98722 16402 63742 74775 41849 57223 27277 76747
37647 03599 37022 14435 24280 47480 40142 96221 72672 05416
59594 26265 12968 90977 61377 50875 11992 82090 67621 47759
18669 38502 15325 42891 13731 93732 83026 55380 43533 59401
74906 11106 80333 20520 07486 02354 29465 15406 11280 57616
53601 65949 77811 10066 32691 88896 14377 04184 46970 36360
10118 56248 39296 47826 35555 80498 73198 10610 52399 31870
03521 42203 91816 07529 36856 90256 71993 47312 11774 70800
86445 01392 85182 37871 83415 04391 37520 28040 88454 98216
47351 04633 17286 60311 67160 38298 06104 13146 88889 43977
08317 62156 26170 77744 60051 77145 82036 55413 26387 88129
06658 76058 38704 54276 58046 09087 48791 59979 85713 69491
96754 88089 13081 40513 25080 61557 42963 45563 93728 64895
58613 08550 03736 59188 29784 68543 47319 54410 60485 03638
75360 88713 01681 58824 58797 33069 57694 60804 63417 59777
02902 18855 11059 02770 49096 92742 24866 69856 63668 15966
23204 63472 28598 87841 49905 65032 68488 91345 35071 10043
00123 22267 21726 59399 16713 57097 94995 14369 04473 87915

86 AAPM Member Copy
APPENDIX 1
75159 04763 83990 77410 43219 08491 49971 34751 90874 33324
64826 50363 60659 73389 12676 15984 43955 32309 99696 27986
72015 86596 47341 66753 43412 14926 04887 83295 08340 11789
76487 13489 07362 52107 98486 23910 14392 61050 46214 08268
23346 56756 83146 00 58 49024 71280 45432 01452 23437 23023
26921 62937 85353 57679 27858 02896 45166 09287 51325 12151
85623 95868 13661 36807 22579 45942 01065 12287 96424 36866
57468 92869 23416 29847 07214 53412 43025 27532 72289 81561
36086 43194 75030 13151 54394 55470 24796 92035 59543 23059
52604 94783 91119 94973 75603 20512 74823 40011 77169 56891
50948 89415 27930 91005 05821 20319 89531 76901 63618 29554
45170 73889 97476 04575 11733 31825 80401 53835 88303 48283
67014 53727 65708 06377 01335 55158 39782 91452 16496 30671
26993 01631 92210 58534 97435 53088 02908 93780 23888 96570
98691 96242 66366 07545 46173 93540 79952 76037 60590 38189
61045 07511 29761 58896 12543 35678 83293 27732 23367 68605
52489 86640 25070 29017 43861 63652 37502 77162 77661 70783
46518 86778 35576 76247 28691 26358 74188 85357 73381 31278
77077 28416 14912 40629 33049 08996 88511 55313 11254 41553
04376 65270 46947 71630 30039 13013 66453 12084 71648 75783
87634 07259 75982 28029 69525 41911 29617 75154 47067 17907
37821 22337 72516 23271 95788 90086 51042 27889 46734 41038
41091 62645 71048 83996 18333 41883 74470 67982 62843 51713
73430 60961 20316 20872 72205 28142 29476 93314 54365 53275
20123 04009 51209 32596 45214 88386 26355 10429 00267 58484
92672 20878 88332 53431 15699 72685 37318 94642 07514 02664
21126 11737 81296 45114 33652 89762 96350 03397 74029 45064
14172 67256 58255 22029 29544 84180 37491 34277 57693 91665
32587 21964 30277 71420 18257 73144 01561 75765 40649 34989
18797 34387 01000 25065 89298 83897 76434 67269 84610 82816
79618 21211 47559 76906 74712 74891 96127 05345 91183 93630
95453 93006 58157 06693 39119 94367 40647 47021 34261 16816
14653 28304 17042 27232 23110 39944 76985 95048 63250 69365
61806 66412 52802 96340 20019 94741 86235 31448 20796 61634
79224 41453 20335 76469 51563 29372 05220 56730 21801 83926
34535 88081 05316 15334 54423 74841 21700 29435 99864 26426
35672 86787 87155 47461 53794 13078 63378 50643 19804 25983
36283 57584 61328 27802 88610 88507 37706 45514 91825 45635
67308 79480 75689 07459 34044 19713 71050 69111 10114 07369
47024 55051 23602 92940 78788 73271 44524 69168 05536 08733
67471 75223 90168 42751 98836 09026 20850 50724 70414 50235
01463 57358 15220 65898 92544 04686 56279 44377 31919 82116
34387 07583 06592 23820 33623 84577 60373 09097 74302 29378
86709 33670 42584 74798 01183 31030 82426 79015 92759 09766
28387 20913 45811 95180 19783 56380 75688 36853 43561 36330
52049 55602 48211 46844 51923 32051 82566 61003 74477 18501
14826 10242 35317 34662 12256 98285 51666 74407 96220 48602
00340 67649 19285 82988 24593 22949 82605 14443 87342 40193
14798 83722 68230 63895 10872 99872 23027 77953 81729 60689
65671 87604 60646 63906 46874 62471 24524 47753 66565 93200
33661 87722 78935 06077 93533 46943 86784 58366 55760 76722
81463 70186 96198 43722 18683 96591 94912 23854 03702 95003
63956 18161 43576 45895 41665 39188 78664 82984 30755 87257
36692 27055 14435 57695 95785 74165 89410 13313 85177 86068
74864 37513 63346 67074 63875 28373 92256 11960 58900 81187
06537 90496 63777 34359 92356 89148 83212 91801 28213 75310
06962 32280 95005 67415 73554 54979 13587 78701 98440 28761
87935 59837 95695 18733 45672 98969 04475 01509 30144 75974
62916 67978 37774 79862 48207 39407 10768 54700 48561 85560
88855 20486 65159 88149 38801 45599 58792 90791 83955 71002
05043 58876 01056 26633 98288 62088 52835 62848 08114 57893
89341 33945 53004 88137 47503 54339 83980 70642 41637 35871
16900 40734 42737 41598 35234 44813 32433 33656 81694 28234
55106 88757 63603 53074 95147 94837 90892 56666 97699 68957
22079 79801 54335 08568 86956 84890 75394 29663 95060 90207
78700 16314 45841 86704 60516 52224 33725 67881 58508 87832
12324 49240 65997 50737 25080 86440 23271 66393 81631 57697
87 AAPM Member Copy
15133 23732 25511 06770 06556 92409 74462 39907 65553 41273
63624 32039 30118 55433 91214 47562 67547 57396 30326 73157
32773 09947 06865 49546 90828 29889 41750 12154 68467 01032
33140 37633 53201 69904 76556 85656 07807 41937 58671 14054
84010 42282 09578 81878 97488 39393 20839 02646 09413 40467
25652 75924 59233 89330 15170 41965 95281 11132 69507 11836
08086 94179 01659 31290 00111 62827 19144 86527 18674 94388
55235 77071 72273 07869 42280 01646 82497 98064 51176 71640
24518 40068 09233 17608 81919 69928 35591 66465 38313 86820
62252 87602 27514 02930 85290 08956 91041 48938 45147 03390
71831 14070 15108 14708 35951 26764 51904 17416 97922 29611
45758 30888 02869 20339 96251 52137 51038 86666 99772 72017
52891 48881 72186 00292 77149 60102 69250 02040 45426 20302
59163 02492 53923 92082 62273 54495 97379 34316 12391 27562

88 AAPM Member Copy
APPENDIX 2. UPPER CRITICAL VALUES OF

THE STUDENT’S t-DISTRIBUTION
d.f. Probability of exceeding the critical value
10 % 5% 2.5 % 1% 0.5 % 0.1 %
1 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657 318.313

2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 22.327
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 10.215
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 7.173
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5.893
6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.208
7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.782
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 4.499
9 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 4.296
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.143
11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.024
12 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.929
13 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.852
14 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 3.787
15 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 3.733
16 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 3.686
17 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.646
18 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.610
19 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.579
20 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.552
21 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.527
22 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.505
23 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.485
24 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.467
25 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.450
26 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.435
27 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.421
28 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.408
29 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.396
30 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.385
35 1.306 1.690 2.030 2.438 2.724 3.340
40 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704 3.307
45 1.301 1.679 2.014 2.412 2.690 3.281
50 1.299 1.676 2.009 2.403 2.678 3.261
55 1.297 1.673 2.004 2.396 2.668 3.245
60 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660 3.232
65 1.295 1.669 1.997 2.385 2.654 3.220
70 1.294 1.667 1.994 2.381 2.648 3.211
75 1.293 1.665 1.992 2.377 2.643 3.202
80 1.292 1.664 1.990 2.374 2.639 3.195
85 1.292 1.663 1.988 2.371 2.635 3.189
90 1.291 1.662 1.987 2.368 2.632 3.183
95 1.291 1.661 1.985 2.366 2.629 3.178
100 1.290 1.660 1.984 2.364 2.626 3.174
1 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576 3.090
Obtained from http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda3672.htm

QUANTITIES AND SYMBOLS USED IN THIS REPORT
Symbol Quantity
Aa areal activity density

Ac contained activity, inventory
at long run average (constant or time-dependent)
Cov(h) spatial covariance between points separated by lag h
Cag aggregated transfer coefficient
Cr concentration ratio
C^r estimated concentration ratio
Ct cyclical component indexed by time
Cvar coefficient of variation
Cov covariance
D probability of detecting an existing hot spot given it exists
e.s.e. estimated standard error HVar( y) or random sampling error
f sampling fraction, n/N
h lag vector or lag distance
k systematic sampling interval
K resuspension ratio
m number from n sampled units within a defined class
ml number from nl sampled units within a defined class
n number of observations in sample
N number of possible sampling units in a population
nl number of units sampled in stratum l
Nl number of possible sampling units in stratum l
p estimate of population proportion from n sampled units, p ¼ m/n
P actual population proportion in a defined class
q sample proportion not in a defined class (1 p)
Q actual population proportion not in a defined class (1 P)
pl estimate of population proportion in stratum l from nl sampled units, ml/nl
Pl actual population proportion in stratum l in a defined class
r sample correlation coefficient
R2 coefficient of determination
Rc count rate
s sample standard deviation
s2 sample variance
s2wsy variance among units that lie within the same systematic sample
Sr(u) stochastic random process at location u
St cyclical component indexed by time
t t factor
T(u) true value at location u
w mass of sample
Wl fraction of possible sampling units in stratum l, Nl/N
Xt attribute of interest at time t

Symbol Quantity
yi numerical value for sample I

y observed mean or average
ysy observed average in a systematic sample
Var variance
VarðyÞ variance of the mean
Z(u) spatial random process at location u
z(u0) punctual kriging predictor at un-sampled location u0
z(u) observed value of spatial random process at location u
z(v) observed value of spatial random process at location v
a pre-specified probability of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis (significance level)
g(h) semivariance between observed points of a spatial process separated by lag h
d difference between two independent population means
«(u) residual or spatially correlated variation of spatial process at location u
«t residual variation, indexed by time
assumed prior probability of hot spot existence
li weights for each process (value) of z at ui, used in interpolation and prediction
m population mean
s population standard deviation
s2 population variance
t(ui) independent measurement variation
t2 nugget
Quantity Symbol
assumed prior probability of hot spot existence

actual population proportion in a defined class P
actual population proportion in stratum l in a defined class Pl
actual population proportion not in a defined class (1 P) Q
aggregated transfer coefficient Cag
areal activity density Aa
attribute of interest at time t Xt
coefficient of determination R2
coefficient of variation Cvar
concentration ratio Cr
contained activity, inventory Ac
count rate Rc
covariance Cov
cyclical component (1) indexed by time Ct
cyclical component (2) indexed by time St
difference between two independent population means d
estimate of population proportion from n sampled units, m/n p
estimate of population proportion in stratum l from nl sampled units, ml/nl pl
estimated concentration ratio C^r
estimated standard error HVar( y) or random sampling error e.s.e.
fraction of possible sampling units in stratum l, Nl/N Wl
independent measurement variation t(ui)
lag vector h
long run average (constant or time-dependent) at
mass of sample w
nugget t2
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QUANTITIES AND SYMBOLS USED IN THIS REPORT
Quantity Symbol
number from n sampled units within a defined class m

number from nl sampled units within a defined class ml
number of observations in sample n
number of possible sampling units in a population N
number of possible sampling units in stratum l Nl
number of units sampled in stratum l nl
numerical value of sample I yi
observed mean or average y
observed mean or average of a systematic sample ysy
observed value of spatial random process at location u z(u)
observed value of spatial random process at location v z(v)
population mean m
population standard deviation s
population variance s2
pre-specified probability of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis (significance level) a
probability of detecting an existing hot spot given it exists D
punctual kriging predictor at location u0 z(u0)
residual or spatially correlated variation of spatial process at location u «(u)
residual variation, indexed by time «t
resuspension ratio K
sample correlation coefficient r
sample proportion not in a defined class (1 p) q
sample standard deviation s
sample variance s2
sampling fraction, n/N f
semivariance between observed points of spatial process separated by lag h g(h)
spatial covariance between points separated by lag h Cov(h)
spatial random process at location u Z(u)
stochastic random process at location u Sr(u)
systematic sampling interval k
t factor t
true value at location (u) T(u)
variance Var
variance among units that lie within the same systematic sample s2wsy
variance of the mean Var ( y)
weights for each process (value) of z at ui, used in interpolation and prediction li

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doi:10.

SAMPLING FOR RADIONUCLIDES IN THE ENVIRONMENT

Consultants to the Report Committee

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION ON RADIATION UNITS

INTRODUCTION feels that action based on expediency is inadvisable

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SAMPLING FOR RADIONUCLIDES IN THE ENVIRONMENT

2 VARIABILITY OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY AND RADIATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2.1 Causes of variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

3 GENERAL SAMPLING CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

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3.6 Practical sampling issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

4 ESTIMATING STATISTICAL QUANTITIES: MEAN, TOTAL, PROPORTION,

5 SAMPLING TO ESTIMATE SPATIAL PATTERN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

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5.5 Design-based sampling schemes for spatial data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

6 TEMPORAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL SAMPLING PROBLEMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

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APPENDIX A 10,000 RANDOM DIGITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

APPENDIX B UPPER CRITICAL VALUES OF THE STUDENT’S t DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . 89

QUANTITIES AND SYMBOLS USED IN THIS REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

Abiotic not of the biota, non-living components of the environment

or almost as small as a single point. The block kriging estimate is

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Piscivorous feeding on fish

The vertical axis of the variogram, that is a measure of the spatial

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Tailings the waste remaining after a physical and/or chemical process

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ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

2 VARIABILITY OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY

Radio-nuclide Animal Tissue or product Sampling area (km2) Cvar Reference

Radionuclide Organism Environment (ha) Cvar Reference

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3 GENERAL SAMPLING CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES

3.1 INTRODUCTION because of the variability that is characteristic of

Study purpose Target population Possible sampling scheme

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

ICRU 2015 -- All rights reserved.

4 ESTIMATING STATISTICAL QUANTITIES: MEAN, TOTAL,

4.1 INTRODUCTION Identify the target population and the sampling

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Size of difference Power ¼ 0.5 Power ¼ 0.8 Power ¼ 0.9

4.2.3 Example: 137Cs contained activity

Strata Mud Gravel Silt

Nh 1000 200 100

For calculation of the sampling variance (Eq. (4.9)),

a single systematic sample (Gilbert, 1987; Thompson 1

4.3.3 Stratified sampling for proportions 4.4 ESTIMATION OF A PERCENTILE

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5 SAMPLING TO ESTIMATE SPATIAL PATTERN

5.1 INTRODUCTION small relative to the scale of spatial correlation and

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5.2.2 Mapping using spatially

in relation to the variance (Var) among pairs of

where g(h) is called ‘semi-variogram.’

5.3.7 Relationship between the

assumed prior probability of hot spot existence