February 2018

Protecting Mueller and the Investigation

Results of a New Nationwide Survey
To: Interested Parties
From: Jeremy Rosner, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Despite attacks by President Trump and his allies on Special Counsel Robert Mueller and the
investigation he is leading, a new survey shows the public believes Russia meddled in the 2016
election, is concerned about it, and is prepared to support Trump’s impeachment if the investi-
gation produces evidence of illegality.
The survey also shows that, if there is evidence of crimes, members of Congress who attacked
the Mueller inquiry could pay a high price in November. These polling results send a clear mes-
sage to elected officials that their constituents care deeply about protecting the Mueller investi-
gation. A strong 64% majority – including 62% of Republican voters in GOP-held House districts
– say they will be less likely to vote for their members of Congress if the Mueller investigation
produces evidence of criminal activity, and their House member had been involved in efforts to
attack or stall the investigation.

Now, imagine that Special Counsel Mueller announces this summer he % “less likely to vote to re-elect”
has evidence of criminal activity by President Trump and his team, such
as working illegally with Russia to undermine the 2016 election, or ob-
Total: 64%
structing justice to block the truth from coming out. At that point, if you Independents: 71%
found out that your member of Congress had been involved in efforts to All Republicans: 58%
attack or stall Special Counsel Mueller's investigation, would that make
you more or less likely to vote for the re-election of your member of Con- Republicans in GOP-
held House districts:
62%
gress?

The survey suggests voters would also turn strongly against the President if the investigation
produces evidence of illegal actions by Trump or his team, with little variability depending on the
details of the crimes. Whether the illegality involved unlawful coordination with Russia, obstruc-
tion of justice, or financial crimes by Trump’s companies; and whether it directly involved Trump,
or only his top aides - solid majorities, ranging from 58% to 65%, say they would support
Trump’s impeachment. In each case, support for Trump’s impeachment includes solid majorities
of independents, and about a third of all Republicans:

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Stand Up America: Results of the February 2018 Survey on the Russia Investigation 2

Scenario: Imagine that this summer, Special Counsel Mueller announces he

% Support % Oppose
has proof that… At that point, would you support or oppose impeachment
Impeachment Impeachment
of President Trump?
[Illegal coordination, Trump involved] He has proof that top people on Trump's
campaign worked illegally with Russia to undermine the 2016 election, and an- 65% 35%
nounces that Donald Trump was personally involved in these efforts.
[No illegal coordination, but financial crimes involving Trump] There is no
clear evidence that Donald Trump or his campaign worked illegally with Russia to
undermine the 2016 election. But, during his investigation Mueller found evidence 63% 37%
of crimes like money laundering committed by Trump's real estate company,
done at his personal direction, in advance of the 2016 election.
[Illegal coordination, Trump not involved, plus obstruction involving Trump]
He has proof that top people on Trump's campaign worked illegally with Russia to
undermine the 2016 election, but Trump himself was not personally involved.
However, he does find proof that Donald Trump personally obstructed justice in
62% 38%
attempt to cover up his staff's actions, such as by firing FBI Director James
Comey to try to block the Russia investigation.
[Obstruction, Trump involved] There is no clear evidence that Donald Trump or
his campaign worked illegally with Russia to undermine the 2016 election. How-
ever, he does find proof that Donald Trump repeatedly obstructed justice, such as
62% 38%
by firing FBI Director James Comey to try to block the Russia investigation.
[Illegal coordination, Trump not involved] He has proof that top people on
Trump's campaign worked illegally with Russia to undermine the 2016 election, 59% 41%
but cannot prove that Trump himself was personally involved.
[Obstruction, Trump not involved] There is no clear evidence Donald Trump or
his campaign worked illegally with Russia to undermine the 2016 election. How-
ever, he does find proof that many of the top people on the Trump campaign and 58% 42%
staff, although not Trump himself, repeatedly obstructed justice, such as by push-
ing for firing FBI Director James Comey to try to block the Russia investigation.

Such evidence of a likely public swing against Trump and the Republican Congress, if clear
wrong-doing emerges, helps explain the intense, coordinated attacks they have launched on
Mueller and his investigation. These attacks may be having some impact; although a 57-43%
majority say they have high confidence in Mueller’s investigation, that margin is relatively nar-
row.

But the survey shows a strong majority feel more confident about Mueller and his investigation
once they hear the most basic information about him – and it is worth keeping in mind that
Mueller is still not a well-defined figure for most of the public. A 59% majority are more likely to
trust Mueller and his handling of the investigation when they hear this statement: “Mueller has
an outstanding record of integrity and patriotism. He is a highly decorated former Marine who
fought in Vietnam. As US Attorney he served under both Democratic and Republican presi-
dents, and built a reputation for fearlessly going after corruption and sticking to facts.”

The public is already highly concerned about Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election. Already,
65% believe it is true that Russia was trying to interfere in the 2016 election, and 67% say this is
a very or somewhat serious concern to them personally, including 36% who say it is a “very se-
rious concern.” As respondents hear about three ways of describing facts already established,
the share who say they are “very concerned” rises further, to over 40% in each case:

It is notable, in the messages below, that nearly two-thirds reject the Trump claim that there was
“no collusion,” and instead express real concern that the facts already established suggest just
the opposite.

 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. February 2018

Stand Up America: Results of the February 2018 Survey on the Russia Investigation 3

Now please read some more statements related to Russia and the 2016 election,
based on facts that are already established at this point. For each, please indi- %Very or
%Very
cate how concerned each makes you feel about Donald Trump as President. Somewhat
Concerned
Does it make you feel very concerned, somewhat concerned, just a little con- Concerned
cerned, or not concerned at all.
[Misrepresentations] Donald Trump claimed that no member of his team ever spoke
with the Russians, and his team members denied any such contacts in official disclo-
sures and sworn testimony. But there are now over fifty documented such communica-
tions, including conversations with the Russians during the campaign and transition by
65% 44%
Attorney General Jeff Sessions; Donald Trump Jr.; Jared Kushner; and Trump's Na-
tional Security Adviser Mike Flynn, who has now pleaded guilty to lying about this.
[Effort to lift Russian sanctions] Immediately after Trump won the election, and be-
fore he took office, his national security adviser Michael Flynn worked directly with
Russians tied to the Kremlin, under orders from the Trump transition team, to secretly 65% 44%
try to lift US sanctions on Russia, which would have been worth billions to Putin. Flynn
has since pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about these activities.
[Trump Tower meeting with Russians] Donald Trump says there was no collusion
with the Russians. But it is already clear that his top advisers met with Russians close-
ly tied to the Kremlin on June 9, 2016, at Trump Tower, for the specific purpose of get- 62% 42%
ting damaging information about Hillary Clinton from the Russians. Even Steve Ban-
non, Trump's close adviser, has called that meeting "treasonous" and "unpatriotic."

These findings are based on an online nationwide survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted
January 29 to February 3, 2018. The survey was commissioned by Stand Up America; it was
designed and fielded by DC-based Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.

 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. February 2018