Fundamental and Technical Analysis

*
Present by : Tok Boom Marking
(Ahmad Firdaus b. Ab hadi)
FOREX — the foreign exchange market or currency
market or Forex is the market where one currency is traded
for another. It is one of the largest markets in the world.

*
* Trader - is a person that buy and sell financial
instruments, expecting for profits.

*
* ‘Buy Low, Sell High.’ Not ‘Lowest’ and ‘Highest.’
* “Buy low, sell high.” Seems like a pretty
straightforward strategy to successful investing, but
how many people know how—or even attempt—to
do it? Greed and fear have many individual investors
doing exactly the opposite—buying (or holding) high,
and selling (or not holding) low. Source wall street
journal.
* This, essentially, is what rebalancing a portfolio is all
about: a prudent strategy for managing an investor’s
overall risk.
* Eleanor Blayney – Trader Bank

*
* Naked Chart mean the trader used candle as a
indicator or we call trading without other
indicator.

*
* Trader adalah seorang jeneral, seorang pemilik dana trading. Sebagai seorang jeneral, trader
bertanggung jawab menentukan strategi trading dimana untuk memahami market forex sekarang ini (trend
lines), kekuatan market forex sekarang ini (bull, bear atau sideways) dan kawasan medan perang tempat
bertempur (sesi market Tokyo, London atau New York).
* Untuk mendukung strategi trading yang digunakan, seorang trader harus terlebih dahulu mempersiapkan
segala strategi sebelum menyerang musuh (pair forex, Gold atau Oil), waktu dan tempat medan perang
berdasarkan segala informasi (news kalender ekonomi atau isu-isu market yang beredar) dan interpretasi
dari informasi tersebut.
* Persiapan perang ini termasuk di dalamnya mengukur kekuatan gerakan musuh, volatilitas dan arah dari
gerakan musuh (short term atau long term trend).
* Seorang trader perlu membuat suatu strategi trading (buy atau sell, long term atau short term trading) dan
margin trading dari dana yang digunakan (money management). Setelah semua data dan prediksi yang
telah dibuat, trader menunggu pergerakan chart suatu pair untuk menentukan titik open posisi yang tepat,
misalnya buy / sell ketika terjadi koreksi.
* Ketika open posisi telah dibuat, trader mengamati perkembangan open posisi trading yang telah dibuat.
Trader harus selalu siap untuk merubah arah open posisi trading atau melakukan cut loss berdasarkan
perkembangan dan pergerakan chart trading yang terjadi.
* Seorang trader adalah pejuang kecil. Trader tidak memiliki jumlah dana yang besar untuk melawan
kekuatan market forex ataupun melawan institusi besar seperti Bank Central. Apa yang trader boleh
lakukan adalah membaca gelagat yang “diberikan” oleh market forex itu sendiri, mengintepretasikannya
dengan cepat dan mengimplementasikannya ke dalam posisi trading yang sedang berjalan berdasarkan
disiplin money management dan strategi trading yang dipakai.

*Sun Tzu-The Art of

Trading
SWOT Swing Trader Intraday Trader Scalping Trader

Strengths -Less opened position -Many opened position -More opened position
-Less stressful - Medium profit -Fast profit
-Less SL hit (news)
-Big profits
Opportunities -Technical Analysis -News trading - Technical trading
rarely invalidated -high risk-high profit - Indicator Ref.
-Less interest for
institutional Trader
Medium risk = medium
profit.
Weaknesses -Less opened position -Emotional consuming - Time consuming
-Slow profit (stressful) - Small profits/trade
-Opened position -Technical Analysis often (pips)
Management invalidated

Threats - Swap points -Contradictory News - No SL

- High impact news -SL hunting - Leverage
-Leverage - News
Timeframe Use TF Weekly, Monthly and TF Daily, H1 and H4 TF H1, M30, M15 and M1
Daily
Percentage Win (%) 15% to 20% 5% 3%

*
Other trader, Position Trader percentage win 80%
* Technical analysis is the framework in which traders study price movement.
* The theory is that a person can look at historical price movements and determine the
current trading conditions and potential price movement.
* The main evidence for using technical analysis is that, theoretically, all current market
information is reflected in price. If price reflects all the information that is out there, then
price action is all one would really need to make a trade.
* Now, have you ever heard the old adage, "History tends to repeat itself"?
* Well, that's basically what technical analysis is all about! If a price level held as a key
support or resistance in the past, traders will keep an eye out for it and base their trades
around that historical price level.
* Technical analysts look for similar patterns that have formed in the past, and will form
trade ideas believing that price will act the same way that it did before.
*
Sources: http://www.babypips.com/school/technical-analysis.html#ixzz2fxzNNezC

*
Basic Technical Analysis
 Support and Resistance (SNR)
 Supply and Demand (SND)
 Price Action and Volume (PnV)
 Cs Pattern and Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger
 Big Round Numbers (BRN)
 Marking Price (MP)
 How to Entry through Marking Price?
 Candle bank (CB)
 Market Session
 Factor of Time for Open daily, Tokyo Open, London Open and Us Open (TLUO Method)-Volatile
 Tokyo breakout Technic (Tok Boom Founder)
 2 Confirmation Candle Technic (2CC)
 Close Market Technic 10/11

*
* Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand
meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand
(up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with
bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and
other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices
decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears
slug it out for control.

*
* Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to
prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines
towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers
become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed
that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.

*
* Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to
prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances
towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less
inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that
supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance..

*
 Resistance

Support

Resistance
becomes Support

*
*
*
*
*
*
*
 Range Market Big Repair
Example 120pips

Support Become Resistance

Range market would be consider based on volume and trending.

*
 ? ?
Break Reject

*
*
* In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up).
Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with
bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and
other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices
decline. When supply and demand (SND) are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and
bears slug it out for control.

*
*
Retest Zone SND

*
 V120
V90 Use Price Action in Trending
V60

V30

PNV

V30

15 pips
V60

*
 Trend

*
*
* Tips Volume:-

*
*
Transition Pattern between downtrend and Uptrend

*Cs Pattern and Chart Pattern

by Dan Zanger
* Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger
* Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger
* As a naked chart trader, Price is all about…
with price u should known SNR and when to
OP… Not many trader us price as subject of
entry…What price u should marking…Why?

*
 Monday
Marking Monday to entry Tuesday

L1
Convert to Line Chart

L3
L4

L5

L2
1. Marking Low and high Body Candle, it mean L1 and L2
2. And than, create more line based on wave or close price.
3. Assuming the line as support and resistance.

*
 Monday Tuesday

L1

breakout

L2

4. If breakout, refer previous day based on wave.

*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
1.30000
*Big round Numbers
(BRN)
 EurUsd

*Big round Numbers

(BRN)
Sydney Open Tokyo Open London Open Us Open London Close Us Close

Sydney Session (5.00am – 2.00pm)

Tokyo Session (8.00am – 5.00pm)

Volatile Session 3.00pm-5.00pm

London Session (3.00pm – 12.00am)

Volatile Session (9.00pm – 11.00pm)

Us Session (9.00pm – 5.00am)

5.00am 8.00am 3.00pm 9.00pm 11.00pm 5.00am

(GMT +7:00) Bangkok Hanoi, Jakarta

*
 *
http://mc24.ch/index.html
http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php

*
 6.00am High Volatile on London Session
Open daily
Volatile Zone

Sideway More than 8 hours

It Create resistance Area
8.00am
Tokyo Open

*
 Breakout Line 25pips Entry Here
How to Entry:-
1. Need to breakout L1 or L2 before 3pm.
Breakout Line1 2. Need to breakout Line 25pips again.
25pips 3. Entry above or below based which
Line market breakout.
4. If market breakout before 10am,
need to close OP before 3pm.
5. If market breakout after 10am.
need to close by 6pm either profit
or lose.
6. Recommendation SL 30pips.
Breakout Line2
Other. need to see BBC news for high
Pair EU, GU, GC and UC
Impact news such earthquakes, tsunami
but not JPY pairing.
or wars speculate.

*Tokyo breakout Technic

(Tok Boom Founder)
2 hour Reject

Entry Tips:-
Here. Why need 2 candle
Confirmation
1. We need to know the
volatile is low.
2. We know that price
is clearly reject or break.
3. Trader always entry SNR
by one candle…gamble
50-50….

*
http://www.forexmentor.com/londonclose-old/10000pips/

*
*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glonD2Zl4ag (Noble Entry)

*
*
*
* Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the market by analyzing economic, social,
and political forces that affects the supply and demand of an asset. If you think about
it, this makes a whole lot of sense! Just like in your Economics 101 class, it is supply
and demand that determines price.
* Using supply and demand as an indicator of where price could be headed is easy. The
hard part is analyzing all the factors that affect supply and demand.
* In other words, you have to look at different factors to determine whose economy is
rockin' like a Taylor Swift song, and whose economy sucks. You have to understand the
reasons of why and how certain events like an increase in unemployment affect a
country's economy, and ultimately, the level of demand for its currency.
* The idea behind this type of analysis is that if a country's current or future economic
outlook is good, their currency should strengthen. The better shape a country's
economy is, the more foreign businesses and investors will invest in that country. This
results in the need to purchase that country's currency to obtain those assets.
*
Sources: http://www.babypips.com/school/fundamental-analysis.html#ixzz2fy0R3HOe

*
Basic Fundamental Analysis
* Type of Market participants
* Size of Market
* Major factor of Fundamental
* Top 10 Bank currency traders
* Most Traded Currencies by Value
* 8 Major Currency
* 9 Major pair Analysis
* US Dollar Index
* USDX Components
* Person Behind Big Bank
* What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency?
* How to study stock market on Bloomberg?
* Forexfactory Analysis
* BBC is the best News Updated
* CME group Analysis
* COT (Commitment of Traders)
* Effect news for other currency?
* List of website
* Summary of Fundamental Analysis

*
Type of Market participants

1. Commercial companies
2. Central banks
3. Foreign exchange fixing
4. Hedge funds as speculators
5. Investment management firms
6. Retail foreign exchange traders
7. Non-bank foreign exchange companies
8. Money transfer/remittance companies and bureau de
change

*
* As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal
of perfect competition, notwithstanding currency intervention by central
banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements, as of April
2010, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is
estimated at $3.98 trillion, a growth of approximately 20% over the
$3.21 trillion daily volume as of April 2007. Some firms specializing on
foreign exchange market had put the average daily turnover in excess
of US$4 trillion.

* The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:

• $1.490 trillion in spot transactions
• $475 billion in outright forwards
• $1.765 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
• $43 billion currency swaps
• $207 billion in options and other products

*
Basic Fundamental factor would effect the currency Trend.

 Residential Mortgage
 Interest Rate
 Jobless claims
 Debt ceiling
 Unemployment
 New Home Sales
 Economic crisis
 Manufacturing activity
 Purchasing Power
 Growth rate
 Political Issue
 Trade Balance
 Bond market
 GDP Data(Gross Domestic product)
 Wars Sentiment
 Tsunami or Earthquake

*
*
*
* List for 8 major currency
1. Euro
2. Us Dollar
3. Great British Pound
4. Swiss Franc
5. Australian Dollar
6. Canadian Dollar
7. New Zealand Dollar
8. Japanese Yen

Why yuan is not in 8 major currency?

*
* List of pair:-

1. EuroUsd
2. UsdJpy
3. GbpUsd
4. UsdChf
5. AudUsd
6. UsdCad
7. NzdUsd
8. Oil
9. Gold
Based on 9 pair, we should known trend of Usd currency either strong
or weak.

*
*
*
The Federal Bank European Central Bank Bank Of Japan
(FOMC) (ECB) (BOJ)

Ben Bernanke Mario Draghi Haruhiko Kuroda

*
5 Factor FX Implications
*US Dollar (USD)
1. Residential Mortgage
2. Interest Rate
3. Unemployment Rate
4. Political issue in Middle East
5. Gold Trending

* What Major issue would

create up and down for 8
currency?
*Euro (EUR)
1. Dollar Us strong
2. Manufacturing
3. Unemployment Rate
4. Interest Rate
5. Exports Data
6. EU Member
7. Economic Crisis

*What Major issue would

create up and down for
8 currency?
* Great Britain Pound (GBP)
1. Manufacturing Production
2. MPC Rate
3. Services PMI
4. Construction PMI
5. Business Friendly
6. Interesting on Index Data

*What Major issue would

create up and down for
8 currency?
* Japanese Yen (JPY)
1. No 1 Product Exporter
2. Inflation
3. No 1 importer oil
4. Nikkei Index
5. Us currency

*What Major issue would

create up and down for
8 currency?
* Swiss Franc (CHF)
1. Stable Currency
2. France, Italy and Germany
3. EU Member
4. Interesting on Index Data

*What Major issue would

create up and down for
8 currency?
* Australian Dollar (AUD)
1. Sensitive on gold price
2. Gold production (No 2 )

*What Major issue would

create up and down for
8 currency?
* Canadian Dollar (CAD)
1. Sensitive on oil price
2. Oil production (No 9)

*What Major issue would

create up and down for
8 currency?
* New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
1. Follow Australian Currency
2. Gold production

*What Major issue would

create up and down for
8 currency?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/

*How to study stock

market on Bloomberg?
 *How to study stock
market on Bloomberg?
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=sep15.2013

*Forexfactory
Analysis
*Forexfactory
Analysis
*Forexfactory
Analysis
High Risk News Type Of Impact Time and Date
Category
FOMC Meeting Minutes High Impact 2.00am (Middle of the
Month)
ECB Press Conference High Impact 8.30pm (First Week
Every Month)
BOJ Press Conference High Impact 10.00am (First Week
Every Month)
ADP Non-Farm Medium Impact 8.30pm ( One days
Employment Before NFP)
Change(ADP)
Unemployment Claims Medium Impact 8.30pm ( One days
(UC) Before NFP)
Non-Farm Employment Medium Impact 8.30pm (First Week
Change (NFP) Every Month)-Friday
Unemployment Medium Impact 8.30pm ( One days
Rate(UR) Before NFP)

*
*BBC is the best
News Updated
 http://www.cmegroup.com/

*CME group Analysis

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm

*
* Even if you are a day trader of longer time investment, as swing
trader, you need to know how COT reports are. Therefore you
should check these reports, before you enter short or long trade. If
COT reports "show" many short traders are in the market, you
should reconsider your entry, if you wanna go long. Even if you,
based on your technical analysis want otherwise. These reports
tell us if buyers are in control of the market, base on there
positions, or sellers. You dont wanna bet against the market. You
should be "friend with the trend":
* How to ready COT, by following the next steps:
1. Go to "Market Reports" on the menu.
2. Select "This month in Futures Markets"
3. Scroll down until "Financials"
4. On the right side you have the text (reports) and on the left side
a chart and the numbers/contracts (in thousands).

*
Latest Updated EU

*
Latest Updated Gold

*
* Effect news for other
currency?
*Effect news for other
currency?
*Effect news for other
currency?
3 Step how to Stock market Big News such Big News such
know the Tokyo Open FOMC Speech Earthquake,
trend. (Nikkei Index) or NFP Tsunami or
London Open Source Wars
(STOXX Index) Forexfactory Sentiment
Us Open (DJIA Source BBC
Index)
Sources
Bloomberg
Priority 1 Priority 2, Priority 3, if Priority 4.
If Earthquake, If FOMC, follow not Earthquake Combine
follow the the news. or news FF, technical
sentiment. follow stock analysis and
market. fundamental
analysis.

*Summary of
Fundamental Analysis
List of Website
1. http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm
2. http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php
3. http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/Buzz/FX_Positioning.html
4. http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/
5. http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
6. http://www.babypips.com/
7. http://mc24.ch/index.html
8. http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
9. http://www.ensignsoftware.com/downloads.php
10. http://www.bloomberg.com/
11. http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/volume-open-interest/exchange-volume.html
12. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746255?region=world
13. http://www.timeanddate.com/time/dst/2013.html
14. http://www.bbc.com/
15. http://www.ukforex.co.uk/exchange-rate
16. http://www.futurecurrencyforecast.com/
17. http://www.eia.gov/
18. http://www.reuters.com/
19. http://www.forexlive.com/
20. http://asia.wsj.com/home-page
21. http://www.marketwatch.com/
22. http://www.chartpattern.com/understanding_chart_patterns.html

*List of website
* Cara-cara pengiraan Money management jika trading lebih dari 1 lot

* Contoh:
Risk 2% per trade
Sekiranya equity atau modal usd1000 dan risk 2%,
1000usd x 2% = usd20 risk per lot
utk lot 1st ,
1000usd X 2%=20usd risk,
jika lot 1st,terkena stoploss,balance =980usd.
Untuk lot ke 2nd,
980usd x 2%=19.60 usd risk.
Jika lot ke 2nd,terkena stoploss,balance =960.40usd.
Untuk lot ke 3rd,
960.40usd x 2%=19.20 usd risk.
Jika lot ke 3rd,terkena stoploss,balance =941.20usd.

* Begitulah cara pengiraan Money management untuk lot yang seterusnya berdasarkan
stoploss level,iaitu 2% risk menggunakan kaedah baki terakhir selepas harga terkena
stoploss.

*
Equity 100usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot size

*
Equity 1000usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot size

*
Equity 10000usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot size

*
*
* How to calculate Margin % based on Leverage
* Assume the equity 100usd
* The Leverage 500
* % Margin is Equity X Leverage
* Total % Margin 50,000, such u have 50,000usd
* Assume Mini Account, 0.01 is 10sen usd.
* If u entry lot 0.01, you % margin is 50,000
* If u entry lot 0.1, you % margin is 5,000
* If u entry lot 1.0, you % margin is 500
* % margin mean is percent to Margin Call(MC)

*
Lot Size Leverage Equity % Margin to MC
0.01 500 1000 500,000

0.1 500 1000 50,000

Edited By Tok Boom Marking

1.0 500 1000 5,000

10.0 500 1000 500

Lot Size Leverage Equity % Margin to MC

0.01 1000 1000 1,000,000

0.1 1000 1000 100,000

1.0 1000 1000 10,000

10.0 1000 1000 1,000

Lot Size Leverage Equity % Margin to MC

0.01 3000 1000 3,000,000

0.1 3000 1000 300,000

1.0 3000 1000 30,000

10.0 3000 1000 3,000

Comparison based on Leverage

*
 BONUS 100 % or Leverage 1:3000 ? Which Better!!!

If u deposit 1000 USD

Lot Size Leverage Equity + 100 % % Margin to MC
BONUS

Bonus 100%
0.01 500 1000 + 1000 1,000,000
0.1 500 1000 + 1000 100,000

1.0 500 1000 + 1000 10,000

10.0 500 1000 + 1000 1,000

Lot Size Leverage Equity % Margin to MC

Leverage
0.01 3000 1000 3,000,000

1: 3000
0.1 3000 1000 300,000

1.0 3000 1000 30,000

10.0 3000 1000 3,000

Summary, better leverage compare bonus….

*
*
*Good % Margin is 3300 an above.
*
* Kenapa perlunya MM?

a) Tidak ada satu pun di antara beribu2 indikator yang wujud, mampu
memberi 100% keuntungan kepada traders.
b) Tidak ada seorang pun di dunia ini yg tahu ke mana sebenarnya arah
market akan bergerak .
Maka dengan ini konsep MM ini amat perlu untuk mengelak situasi di luar
jangkaan dan sebagai contoh, cuba anda perhatikan situasi yang
sedemikian:-
1. Too much volatile - terlalu banyak pergerakan naik/turun yang mendadak
2. News manipulation - manipulasi berita
3. Political Event - acara politik
4. Internet connection - keadaan sambungan internet
5. Server issue - masalah server
6. Greed and Fear - sifat takut dan tamak
7. Human error - kesilapan manusia
8. Low capital - modal yg rendah
9. Low economic knowledge - pengetahuan ekonomi yg rendah
10. Low chart understanding - pengetahuan chart yg rendah

*
* Salam..dah ramai yang profit dgn cara saya...cuma ada dikalangan group saya sendiri
masih gagal dan dibahagikan kepada beberape kategori:-

1. Kategori yang faham marking sahaja..tapi terkena di news besar..tak suka ambil tahu
pasal FA....

2. Kategori suka entry di big news..banyak tahu pasal FA...tidak berminat terhadap TA...

3. Kategori suka bermain lot gajah..tidak menbuat perkiraan pada MM..padahal Fail MM
telah diberi...contoh equity 300usd entry lot 0.05...profit 30usd...suka2 je nak buka lot 0.1
selepas itu...lot buka sekali ganda...equity meningkat baru 10%..pun akan menuju MC...

4. Terlalu greed and fear...bagus dalam entry..tapi bila equity dah cecah ke satu level yang
tinggi...lot size makin kecil...entry yang semakin takut...

5. Depo sudah..tapi anda tak faham lagi...sbb tu equity tk berubah....tidak ada tindakan
follow up nak jumpa saya.

*
* 1. Lebih banyak masa bersama keluarga, rakan-rakan,jiran tetangga dan
urusan keagamaan.
* 2. Masyarakat negara Maju telah berubah corak kehidupan mereka
daripada pekerja sepenuh masa ke perniagaan atas talian atau forex
trading.
* 3. Persediaan usia tua, di mana ramai yang tertipu dengan pelbagai skim
cepat kaya, menbuka perniagaan baru, tapi belum pasti menjanjikan
kejayaan. Kembali merisiko kan kehidupan dengan melabur kesemua wang
pencen.
* 4. Bagus untuk minda. Kerana ketika usia tuan, jikalau minda kuat
berfikir..masalah lupa ingatan takkan berlaku.
* 5. Tidak memerlukan segulung ijazah
* 6. Tidak memerlukan modal yang besar. Serendah 10 dollar.
* 7. Tidak memerlukan masa yang lama untuk belajar.

*
* Nak buka kedai makan rm100k ...
Nak buka fracise rm500k ...
Nak buka kedai runcit 80k ...
Nak buka kedai tudung 40k ...
Blaka2 main ribu2 ... nak balik modal adala 3, 4 tahun keatas
... kalau ada
Nak buka acc FOREX modal 100usd ... ada ilmu boleh pofit
200-300% sebulan ...sambil golek2 layan anak bini kat rumah
....
Mana yg terbaik punya bisnis ... hmmmmmmmmmmmm
*

*
*
*