PA CD18 Poll Results

Pennsylvania District 18 Polling
Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Executive Summary
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 602 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. The poll was conducted from
February 13th through the 15th and has a margin of error of ±4.2%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using interactive voice
responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics.
3) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump?
Q18: 2016ELECTION Party
Independent or In
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein Democrat Another Party Republican
Q3: TRUMPOPINION Favorable 11.1% 87.7% 1.4% 2.0% 0.0% 22.1% 32.6% 78.4%
Uncertain 39.7% 10.5% 30.2% 3.6% 0.0% 6.4% 15.8% 8.8%
Unfavorable 49.2% 1.9% 68.4% 94.4% 100.0% 71.5% 51.7% 12.8%
Race Age group Gender
African-
American Asian Hispanic Other White/Caucasian 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 Or Older Female Male
Q3: TRUMPOPINION Favorable 48.3% 0.0% 52.6% 70.0% 49.2% 32.9% 47.3% 55.2% 49.1% 44.0% 53.0%
Uncertain 32.2% 28.2% 4.2% 13.4% 8.4% 19.6% 16.6% 2.8% 3.3% 11.8% 6.6%
Unfavorable 19.5% 71.8% 43.2% 16.6% 42.4% 47.5% 36.0% 41.9% 47.6% 44.2% 40.4%
4) Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?
Independent or In
Q4: TRUMPAPPROVAL Approve 16.7% 90.7% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 23.5% 31.3% 81.8%
Disapprove 49.2% 1.8% 68.4% 92.6% 100.0% 70.9% 51.1% 11.9%
Uncertain 34.1% 7.5% 29.9% 5.8% 0.0% 5.6% 17.6% 6.3%
African-
Q4: TRUMPAPPROVAL Approve 49.2% 28.2% 59.8% 70.0% 50.3% 35.1% 51.8% 56.0% 48.5% 45.0% 55.5%
Disapprove 50.8% 71.8% 34.8% 21.4% 41.0% 51.6% 36.2% 40.0% 44.7% 44.7% 38.3%
Uncertain 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 8.7% 8.7% 13.3% 12.0% 4.0% 6.8% 10.3% 6.2%
5) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Wolf’s job performance?
Independent or In
Q5: WOLFAPPROVAL Approve 36.6% 13.5% 44.3% 65.1% 60.9% 63.3% 31.3% 14.0%
Disapprove 15.5% 70.0% 27.1% 10.6% 8.9% 19.5% 27.8% 70.7%
Uncertain 47.8% 16.4% 28.6% 24.4% 30.2% 17.2% 40.9% 15.3%
African-
Q5: WOLFAPPROVAL Approve 9.8% 16.4% 46.2% 17.7% 36.8% 43.7% 25.9% 34.4% 45.1% 33.9% 37.6%
Disapprove 51.6% 0.0% 41.5% 73.9% 43.6% 21.3% 44.5% 53.2% 39.9% 38.6% 47.8%
Uncertain 38.6% 83.6% 12.3% 8.5% 19.7% 35.0% 29.6% 12.4% 15.0% 27.5% 14.6%
6) Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Casey’s job performance?
Independent or In
Q6: CASEYAPPROVAL Approve 8.5% 17.1% 28.6% 58.6% 60.2% 58.0% 22.2% 18.0%
Disapprove 25.4% 61.3% 23.0% 12.4% 0.0% 19.4% 33.6% 59.2%
Uncertain 66.1% 21.6% 48.4% 29.0% 39.8% 22.6% 44.2% 22.7%
African-
Q6: CASEYAPPROVAL Approve 14.6% 16.4% 39.0% 5.3% 34.7% 19.3% 28.9% 35.7% 44.1% 30.9% 36.5%
Disapprove 77.8% 28.2% 39.7% 74.0% 38.4% 31.0% 34.7% 50.8% 34.7% 37.0% 41.8%
Uncertain 7.6% 55.3% 21.4% 20.7% 26.9% 49.7% 36.3% 13.5% 21.2% 32.0% 21.7%
7) If the special election for your U.S. House of Representatives district were held today and the candidates were Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor
Lamb, who would you vote for?
Independent or In
Q7: ELECTIONTODAY Conor Lamb 37.2% 7.3% 47.4% 83.6% 91.1% 71.0% 39.7% 13.4%
Rick Saccone 7.1% 78.9% 17.4% 6.0% 0.0% 16.9% 31.6% 76.5%
Uncertain 55.6% 13.7% 35.2% 10.5% 8.9% 12.1% 28.7% 10.1%
African-
Q7: ELECTIONTODAY Conor Lamb 10.3% 71.8% 40.3% 10.5% 40.2% 24.9% 37.4% 40.2% 50.6% 38.8% 41.2%
Rick Saccone 51.2% 28.2% 56.3% 72.6% 45.3% 26.9% 43.7% 56.9% 42.7% 44.3% 46.7%
Uncertain 38.4% 0.0% 3.4% 17.0% 14.4% 48.1% 18.9% 2.9% 6.7% 16.9% 12.1%
8) Could you support a candidate who has been accused of sexual misconduct?
Independent or In
Q8: SEXUALMISCONDUCT No 83.0% 65.9% 84.5% 93.0% 100.0% 90.7% 80.9% 65.4%
Yes 17.0% 34.1% 15.5% 7.0% 0.0% 9.3% 19.1% 34.6%
African-
Q8: SEXUALMISCONDUCT No 82.4% 100.0% 61.3% 54.3% 77.7% 82.6% 79.5% 70.4% 83.1% 79.4% 76.3%
Yes 17.6% 0.0% 38.7% 45.7% 22.3% 17.4% 20.5% 29.6% 16.9% 20.6% 23.7%
9) Do you currently approve or disapprove of the Tax Reform Bill that was signed into law by President Trump?
Independent or In
Q9: TEXREFORMBILL Approve 16.2% 83.6% 26.4% 5.1% 0.0% 20.6% 30.9% 80.0%
Disapprove 42.3% 2.2% 30.3% 81.7% 100.0% 64.2% 45.2% 8.2%
Uncertain 41.5% 14.2% 43.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.1% 23.9% 11.7%
African-
Q9: TEXREFORMBILL Approve 49.2% 28.2% 64.1% 78.6% 48.1% 36.5% 51.7% 51.6% 45.8% 43.6% 53.0%
Disapprove 49.3% 71.8% 18.1% 16.6% 35.7% 35.1% 31.1% 36.6% 42.9% 40.5% 32.0%
Uncertain 1.4% 0.0% 17.8% 4.8% 16.2% 28.5% 17.2% 11.7% 11.3% 15.8% 15.0%
10) Do you support or oppose transgender children being able to use state and federal funds through CHIP for gender reassignment surgery and other services
related to their gender identity?
Independent or In
Q10: Oppose 26.6% 78.8% 63.9% 30.3% 64.0% 39.0% 41.1% 80.5%
TRANSGENDERCHILDREN Support 19.8% 8.6% 19.5% 43.2% 19.9% 38.8% 26.7% 7.6%
Uncertain 53.6% 12.6% 16.6% 26.5% 16.0% 22.2% 32.2% 11.9%
African-
Q10: Oppose 54.7% 44.7% 53.4% 83.4% 57.3% 43.2% 59.5% 63.5% 53.9% 51.0% 63.8%
TRANSGENDERCHILDREN Support 43.3% 55.3% 29.6% 4.2% 22.0% 35.2% 22.1% 20.1% 21.2% 27.9% 17.9%
Uncertain 2.0% 0.0% 17.0% 12.4% 20.7% 21.6% 18.3% 16.4% 24.9% 21.1% 18.4%
11) Do you support or oppose the legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States?
Independent or In
Q11: SAMESEXMARRIAGE Oppose 23.1% 55.8% 17.4% 11.8% 16.0% 20.1% 20.5% 57.0%
Support 46.3% 29.7% 64.3% 82.2% 84.0% 71.5% 66.3% 28.9%
Uncertain 30.7% 14.5% 18.3% 6.1% 0.0% 8.4% 13.3% 14.1%
African-
Q11: Oppose 45.8% 16.4% 38.4% 50.9% 36.1% 22.8% 29.8% 38.5% 47.3% 33.3% 38.9%
SAMESEXMARRIAGE Support 50.7% 83.6% 45.7% 45.3% 51.7% 63.6% 54.4% 53.1% 42.4% 55.8% 48.4%
Uncertain 3.5% 0.0% 15.9% 3.9% 12.3% 13.6% 15.8% 8.4% 10.3% 10.9% 12.7%
12) Do you think that transgender individuals should be banned from using the bathroom of the gender they identify as?
Independent or
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein Democrat In Another Party Republican
Q12: Should Be Banned 19.7% 69.7% 33.8% 14.0% 0.0% 29.3% 25.3% 66.6%
TRANSGENDERBATHROOM Should Not Be Banned 40.0% 11.1% 42.5% 72.4% 84.0% 54.9% 53.4% 15.3%
Uncertain 40.3% 19.2% 23.7% 13.5% 16.0% 15.8% 21.3% 18.1%
African-
Q12: Should Be Banned 50.6% 16.4% 60.3% 73.8% 44.6% 31.7% 44.6% 47.7% 47.2% 36.3% 53.2%
TRANSGENDERBATHROOM Should Not Be
47.2% 83.6% 19.3% 10.5% 36.9% 45.2% 37.6% 35.1% 36.6% 39.6% 35.4%
Banned
Uncertain 2.3% 0.0% 20.5% 15.7% 18.6% 23.1% 17.8% 17.2% 16.2% 24.1% 11.4%
13) Do you think that transgender individuals should be banned from using the locker room of the gender they identify as?
Independent or
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein Democrat In Another Party Republican
Q13: Should Be Banned 24.4% 76.5% 27.6% 16.6% 16.0% 31.2% 30.7% 73.6%
TRANSGENDERLOCKERROOM Should Not Be Banned 45.0% 7.6% 48.3% 59.8% 84.0% 48.9% 40.4% 11.3%
Uncertain 30.7% 15.9% 24.1% 23.6% 0.0% 19.9% 28.9% 15.0%
African- 65 Or
American Asian Hispanic Other White/Caucasian 18-29 30-49 50-64 Older Female Male
Q13: Should Be Banned 49.4% 16.4% 65.2% 77.4% 49.6% 32.1% 48.1% 57.0% 50.0% 40.5% 58.5%
TRANSGENDERLOCKERROOM Should Not Be
15.0% 83.6% 29.2% 14.0% 30.5% 37.3% 35.2% 26.5% 28.7% 35.4% 26.5%
Banned
Uncertain 35.6% 0.0% 5.6% 8.6% 19.9% 30.6% 16.7% 16.5% 21.3% 24.0% 15.0%
14) Do you think that gay conversion therapy aimed at changing a person’s sexual orientation should be legal or illegal for minors in Pennsylvania?
Independent or In
Q14: Illegal 50.5% 64.0% 46.1% 75.9% 74.3% 71.1% 65.8% 65.9%
GAYCONVERSIONTHERAPY Legal 14.9% 11.9% 2.0% 7.1% 9.6% 12.3% 7.8% 8.8%
Uncertain 34.6% 24.1% 51.9% 17.0% 16.0% 16.6% 26.4% 25.3%
African-
Q14: Illegal 88.9% 100.0% 37.4% 80.4% 66.9% 63.3% 60.4% 76.9% 67.4% 67.2% 68.5%
GAYCONVERSIONTHERAPY Legal 6.2% 0.0% 35.0% 15.7% 9.9% 13.4% 12.1% 5.4% 11.2% 9.4% 10.4%
Uncertain 4.9% 0.0% 27.6% 3.9% 23.3% 23.3% 27.5% 17.7% 21.3% 23.3% 21.2%
15) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Pennsylvania?
Independent or In
Q15: OBTAINABORTION Oppose 30.1% 43.4% 40.7% 52.9% 47.7% 52.5% 38.8% 45.1%
Support 25.2% 35.9% 42.8% 32.6% 52.3% 33.9% 34.8% 34.8%
Uncertain 44.7% 20.7% 16.6% 14.6% 0.0% 13.6% 26.4% 20.1%
African-
Q15: OBTAINABORTION Oppose 68.0% 100.0% 23.2% 43.2% 45.3% 50.2% 50.5% 44.5% 42.6% 51.4% 41.5%
Support 24.9% 0.0% 44.8% 36.3% 35.3% 37.3% 30.0% 35.0% 37.7% 31.6% 37.4%
Uncertain 7.1% 0.0% 32.0% 20.5% 19.5% 12.5% 19.5% 20.6% 19.7% 16.9% 21.1%
16) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion after a pregnancy has lasted for 20 weeks in Pennsylvania?
Independent or In
Q16: Oppose 46.0% 43.4% 29.9% 48.1% 65.5% 51.4% 39.0% 42.8%
OBTAINABORTION20WEEKS Support 12.2% 47.4% 18.6% 32.0% 34.5% 32.7% 31.2% 48.6%
Uncertain 41.8% 9.2% 51.5% 19.9% 0.0% 15.9% 29.8% 8.6%
African-
Q16: Oppose 34.7% 100.0% 43.6% 62.0% 44.1% 33.1% 41.5% 47.2% 53.3% 50.4% 39.8%
OBTAINABORTION20WEEKS Support 30.9% 0.0% 50.7% 29.5% 40.2% 43.6% 42.3% 38.1% 34.7% 32.0% 46.7%
Uncertain 34.4% 0.0% 5.8% 8.5% 15.7% 23.3% 16.2% 14.7% 11.9% 17.6% 13.4%
17) Do you support or oppose legalizing recreational marijuana in Pennsylvania?
Independent or In
Q17: MARIJUANA Oppose 10.4% 57.4% 14.8% 27.5% 16.0% 33.1% 34.3% 54.5%
Support 28.7% 33.9% 68.7% 63.2% 84.0% 57.0% 48.8% 36.1%
Uncertain 60.9% 8.7% 16.6% 9.3% 0.0% 9.9% 16.9% 9.4%
African-
Q17: MARIJUANA Oppose 33.6% 0.0% 42.5% 47.8% 43.6% 26.9% 35.9% 41.3% 60.3% 39.6% 45.6%
Support 64.4% 100.0% 53.9% 52.2% 44.7% 50.3% 52.8% 50.0% 32.0% 46.5% 46.2%
Uncertain 2.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 11.7% 22.9% 11.3% 8.7% 7.7% 13.9% 8.1%
18) In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for?
Independent or In
Q18: 2016ELECTION Didn't vote 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 11.0% 0.8%
Donald Trump 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 38.8% 86.8%
Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 4.4% 2.8%
Hillary Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 71.6% 44.6% 9.1%
Jill Stein 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
African-
Q18: 2016ELECTION Didn't vote 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 9.5% 3.8% 11.7% 4.2% 2.3% 1.6% 6.4% 1.3%
Donald Trump 33.3% 28.2% 42.4% 65.2% 54.8% 40.2% 57.8% 59.4% 49.0% 49.3% 58.6%
Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 3.9% 2.3% 3.5% 5.1% 0.5% 0.6% 2.1% 2.4%
Hillary Clinton 63.6% 71.8% 23.3% 21.4% 38.5% 44.7% 32.3% 36.7% 48.4% 42.0% 36.5%
Jill Stein 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2%
The following questions are for demographic purposes:
1) Are you registered to vote in Pennsylvania?
2) How likely are you to vote in the PA-18 Congressional Special Election?
19) What is your party affiliation?
20) What is your political ideology?

21) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?
22) What race do you identify yourself as?
23) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
24) What is the highest level of education you have completed?
25) How old are you?

26) What is your gender?

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Pennsylvania District 18 Polling

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 39.7% 10.5% 30.2% 3.6% 0.0% 6.4% 15.8% 8.8%

Unfavorable 49.2% 1.9% 68.4% 94.4% 100.0% 71.5% 51.7% 12.8%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 49.2% 1.8% 68.4% 92.6% 100.0% 70.9% 51.1% 11.9%

Uncertain 34.1% 7.5% 29.9% 5.8% 0.0% 5.6% 17.6% 6.3%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 15.5% 70.0% 27.1% 10.6% 8.9% 19.5% 27.8% 70.7%

Uncertain 47.8% 16.4% 28.6% 24.4% 30.2% 17.2% 40.9% 15.3%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 25.4% 61.3% 23.0% 12.4% 0.0% 19.4% 33.6% 59.2%

Uncertain 66.1% 21.6% 48.4% 29.0% 39.8% 22.6% 44.2% 22.7%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 55.6% 13.7% 35.2% 10.5% 8.9% 12.1% 28.7% 10.1%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Yes 17.0% 34.1% 15.5% 7.0% 0.0% 9.3% 19.1% 34.6%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 42.3% 2.2% 30.3% 81.7% 100.0% 64.2% 45.2% 8.2%

Uncertain 41.5% 14.2% 43.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.1% 23.9% 11.7%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 53.6% 12.6% 16.6% 26.5% 16.0% 22.2% 32.2% 11.9%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Support 46.3% 29.7% 64.3% 82.2% 84.0% 71.5% 66.3% 28.9%

Uncertain 30.7% 14.5% 18.3% 6.1% 0.0% 8.4% 13.3% 14.1%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 40.3% 19.2% 23.7% 13.5% 16.0% 15.8% 21.3% 18.1%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 30.7% 15.9% 24.1% 23.6% 0.0% 19.9% 28.9% 15.0%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 34.6% 24.1% 51.9% 17.0% 16.0% 16.6% 26.4% 25.3%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Support 25.2% 35.9% 42.8% 32.6% 52.3% 33.9% 34.8% 34.8%

Uncertain 44.7% 20.7% 16.6% 14.6% 0.0% 13.6% 26.4% 20.1%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 41.8% 9.2% 51.5% 19.9% 0.0% 15.9% 29.8% 8.6%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Support 28.7% 33.9% 68.7% 63.2% 84.0% 57.0% 48.8% 36.1%

Uncertain 60.9% 8.7% 16.6% 9.3% 0.0% 9.9% 16.9% 9.4%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Race Age group Gender

19) What is your party affiliation?

20) What is your political ideology?

22) What race do you identify yourself as?

23) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

24) What is the highest level of education you have completed?

25) How old are you?

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