Energy Policy. Vol. 26, No. 13, pp.

1001 — 1016, 1998

 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
Printed in Great Britain
0301-4215/98 $ — see front matter
PII: S0301-4215(98)00045—7

Automotive energy use and emissions

control: a simulation model to analyse
transport strategies for Indian
metropolises

Ranjan Kumar Bose*

Tata Energy Research Institute, Habitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003, India

A transport simulation model is formulated to analyse energy use and emissions in meeting the travel
requirements of the residents of four Indian metropolises, namely Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and
Bangalore, during the period 1990–2011. The model includes the following variables: travel demand,
modal split, penetration of technologies, vehicle space per passenger, energy intensity and emission
factors of CO, HC, NOx, SO2, TSP and Pb. The model illustrates the effect of two strategies, namely
strengthening public transport and promoting cleaner and alternative fuels with improved technologies,
on energy use and emissions. If both the strategies are implemented, energy worth 0.82 million tonnes of
oil equivalent (mtoe) could be saved in 2010/2011, the breakdown of which is as follows: over 22% in
Delhi (0.36 mtoe), 55% in Calcutta (0.19 mtoe), 15% in Mumbai (0.11 mtoe) and 24% in Bangalore
(0.16 mtoe). The strategies could also reduce the emissions of CO, HC, TSP and Pb in these cities as
follows: 28–75% for CO, 28–80% HC, 21–59% TSP and 31–83% Pb in 2010/2011. Reduction potential
of SO2 emissions in Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai would be 24%, 46% and 27%, respectively, while in
Bangalore this would increase by 5%. Reduction potential of NOx is 15% and 22% in Delhi and
Mumbai, while in Calcutta and Bangalore this would increase by 12% and 16%, respectively.
 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Transport policy; Energy demand; Emissions

Introduction fuels have all led to traffic congestion resulting in longer

Rising incomes combined with a demand for greater
personal mobility and inadequate public transport are
likely to result in a pronounced increase in automobile
(scooters, motorcycles, mopeds and cars) ownership and
use, particularly in the metropolitan cities of India, each
comprising over 1 million people. Growing motorization
coupled with limited road space, inadequate separation
of the working space from the living space and the space
for movement, an ageing and ill-maintained vehicle
stock, a sizeable share of two-stroke engine technologies,
absence of efficient public transport and lower quality of
—————
* Tel.: 00 91 11 4622246 / 4601550; Fax: 00 91 11 4621770/4632609;
E-mail: rbose@teri.res.in.
travel time, greater fuel consumption, growing air pollu-
tion, discomfort to road users and degradation of the
urban environment.
Three mutually reinforcing policies need to be used to
try to reduce the growing energy demand and emissions
from the transport sector: improve the efficiency of fuel
pricing; reduce urban congestion; and promote cleaner
fuel and improved engine technologies (World Bank,
1992). Though many studies on the implications of some
of these strategies on energy demand and emissions have
been undertaken in India, each of them presents only
a broad overview of the problem (IIP, 1985; GOI, 1987;
TERI, 1989; TERI, 1992; Bose and Chary, 1993; Bose
and Mackenzie, 1993; IIP, 1994; Bose, 1996; Dass and
Bose, 1997; Bose and Chary, 1997; World Bank, 1997). It
is therefore of the utmost importance to develop

1001
1002 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose
a methodological framework flexible enough for analys-
ing the nature and magnitude of air pollution in cities
relating to energy demand under alternative strategies
before appropriate measures to check the pollution are
implemented. Such a framework for a rapidly developing
economy like India will also be relevant to many large
cities in much of Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe
and parts of Africa.
Given this background, an urban passenger transport
model is formulated for India using a computer-based
accounting and simulation tool called long-range energy
alternatives planning (LEAP) and its associated environ-
mental database (EDB) to analyse energy demand and
tailpipe emissions under alternative transport strategies
(SEI-B, 1993). The model is implemented in the four
metropolises — Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore
— to illustrate the effect of two much-discussed transport
policies on energy use and emissions. The two strategies
are: (a) strengthening public transport to reduce urban
congestion and (b) promoting cleaner and alternative fuels
and improved engine technologies.
Growth and composition of motor vehicles
The growth of vehicles in each of the four cities has out
paced their respective population (Table 1). Delhi has
the largest number of registered vehicles in the country
(2.43 million in 1994/1995), even though its population
is smaller than that of Calcutta or Mumbai. It is interest-
ing to note that the number of vehicles in Calcutta
(0.56 million), Mumbai (0.67 million) and Bangalore (0.80
million) taken together is only 2.03 million, which is less
than that in Delhi alone. Perhaps this is due to the
absence of suburban rail services in Delhi, which meet a
large proportion of travel demand in Mumbai and
Calcutta.
The annual growth rate in the total number of regis-
tered vehicles went up by 11.2% in Delhi, 7% in Cal-
cutta, 4.5% in Mumbai and 11.1% in Bangalore between
1984/1985 and 1994/1995. One important feature about
this growth is the large share of personally owned ve-
Table 1 Growth in population and motor vehicles (million)
City Variables 1980/1981
Delhi Population 6.22
Vehicles 0.56
Calcutta Population 10.11
Vehicles 0.17
Mumbai Population 8.24
Vehicles 0.31
Bangalore Population 2.92
Vehicles 0.17
Estimated.
Sources: GOI (1991), GOI (1996) and Reddy (1995).
hicles including two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, motor-
cycles and mopeds), cars and jeeps and their increasing
utilization, particularly that of the two-wheeled vehicles.
The number of two-wheeled vehicles in Delhi, Calcutta,
Mumbai and Bangalore grew by an average of 10.8%,
11.1%, 7.4% and 12.1%, respectively, every year from
1984/1985 to 1994/1995. Their share remained around
67—69% in Delhi but increased from 30% to 44% in
Calcutta, 32% to 42% in Mumbai and 68% to 75% in
Bangalore during the same period. The annual growth
rate of cars and jeeps together was 13.8% in Delhi, 4.4%
in Calcutta, 2.7% in Mumbai and 7.9% in Bangalore.
Their combined share increased from 19% to 14% in
Delhi but went down from 47% to 37% in Calcutta, 42%
to 35% in Mumbai and 19% to 14% in Bangalore
between 1984/1985 and 1994/1995. However, number of
buses grew very slowly by 6.8% in Delhi, 9.2% in Cal-
cutta, 6.7% in Mumbai, and 5.6% in Bangalore. The
share of buses, which is currently less than 2.5% in each
of the four cities, declined from 1.6% in 1984/1985 to
1.1% in 1994/1995 in Delhi and from 2.2% to 1.3% in
Bangalore, but increased from 2% to 2.4% in Calcutta
and from 1.4% to 1.8% in Mumbai. This is due to
inadequate attention to the public-based bus transport
system, which occupies less road space and is cheaper,
more energy efficient and less polluting than private,
individually owned transport (TERI, 1996). In view of
these considerations, the Eighth Five Year Plan of the
country has strongly recommended the strengthening of
public transport system and promoting energy efficient
transport modes as the two major road transport strat-
egies (GOI, 1992).
Among the categories of vehicles that form the inter-
mediate public transport (IPT) modes, the number of
autorickshaws grew very rapidly between 1984/1985 and
1994/1995 though its share in the total fleet size remained
between 3% and 7% in each city. The annual growth rate
autorickshaws was 9.6% in Delhi, 5% in Calcutta, 4% in
Mumbai and 11.8% in Bangalore. Taxis accounted for
about 4% of the vehicles in Calcutta and 6% in Mumbai
whereas in the other two cities, the figure was less than
0.5% during this period. The annual growth rate of taxis
1990/1991 1994/1995 Percentage
increase (1980—1995)
9.42 10.40 67
1.80 2.43 334
11.86 12.64 25
0.48 0.56 229
9.93 10.66 29
0.63 0.67 116
4.09 4.67 60
0.58 0.80 371

in Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore was 3.9%,
7.8%, 1.6% and 7.1%, respectively.
The model
¸EAP framework
LEAP has been developed by the Stockholm Environ-
ment Institute — Boston and is used in evaluating en-
ergy—environment policies. The central concept of LEAP
is an end-use driven scenario analysis. First, the current
energy situation and estimated future changes based on
expected or likely plans and growth trajectories are de-
veloped. This business-as-usual (BAU) scenario is referred
to as the base case. Then, one or more policy scenarios
with alternative assumptions about future developments
are developed. For any scenario, any number of what if
questions can be answered. For instance, what if more
efficient technologies are introduced? ¼hat if cleaner and
alternate fuels are introduced? ¼hat if mass transport
facilities are strengthened?
The LEAP framework is a disaggregate hierarchical
format based on four levels: sector, subsector, end-use
and device. It contains two programme modules: the
energy scenarios and the environment database (EDB).
Within the energy scenarios, energy intensity values
along with the type of fuel used for each device are
required for estimating the energy requirements at the
sectoral/subsectoral/end-use levels. In the EDB, emis-
sion factors of different pollutants are required for
each device to analyse the environmental impacts of
energy use over a time horizon. Five reference years,
with first year as the base year, are chosen under each
of the four levels. LEAP requires data for at least the
base year and any of the future reference years. Then
using either the interpolation/extrapolation or the
growth rate method, energy demand scenarios and their
resultant emissions are estimated for the other reference
years.
A link is then built into the model at the device level in
both Energy Scenarios and EDB modules. The model is
then run to analyse the current energy scene and simulate
alternative energy futures along with emissions under
a range of user-defined assumptions and to arrive at
strategies that best-address environmental and energy
problems.
¹he passenger transport model
Sector: ¹otal passenger travel demand, estimated using
Equations (1) and (2).
D " »* ;º ;O (1)
R IR I I
I emitted per unit of fuel burnt (g/kg). Total annual emis-
» "a#b ;t (2)
IR I
Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1003
where D is the total passenger travel demand expressed
in billion passenger kilometres (bpkm), » is the number
of registered motorized passenger vehicles and »* is the
number of registered motorized passenger vehicles ad-
justed with appropriate attrition factor. In other words,
»* is the number of vehicles in use. º and O denote,
respectively, the average vehicle utilization and occu-
pancy, expressed in km/vehicle and passenger/vehicle.
Index k denotes the major passenger modes and t is the
time period, with t"(n#1) — base year and n, the
reference year. The coefficients in Equation (2) are ob-
tained by the ordinary least square method.
Subsector. Modal split, the share of total passenger
travel demand catered by different modes, estimated us-
ing Equation (1).
End-use. Share of technologies and alternative fuels un-
der each mode. Each mode is further disaggregated into
technologies and alternative fuels which are either in use
(obtained from the sales records) or are likely to be
introduced in near future.
Device. »ehicle space per passenger, which is the inverse
of the average occupancy levels for passenger modes.
Energy demand
The average energy intensity for each technology con-
sidered under device is compiled within the LEAP frame-
work. The complete mathematical structure of the
Energy Scenarios module is given in Equation (3).
F "D ;S ;S* ;O\;E (3)
IGR R IR IGR IR IG
where F is the annual fuel demand expressed in kilo-
grams of oil equivalent (kgoe) and S and S* denote the
percentage share of total passenger travel demand by
different modes and their respective technologies. E de-
notes the average energy intensity expressed in kgoe/km.
Index i denotes the type of technology under a given
mode k. Total energy demand is obtained by aggregating
fuel demand across different modes and technologies.
Emissions
Emission factors for different technologies under a typi-
cal Indian urban driving cycle are required in EDB.
Annual emissions of each pollutant, denoted by j, is
estimated in LEAP by using Equation (4).
P "F ;½ (4)
HIGR IGR HIGR
where P denotes emissions expressed in tonnes and
½ the emission factors expressed in mass of pollutants
sions of a pollutant can be obtained by aggregating the
1004 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose
emission values across different modes and their tech-
nologies.
Implementation of the model in four cities
Figure 1 shows the schematic structure of the transport
model in the LEAP framework for a typical Indian city.
Such a model structure is implemented in the four cities,
with total passenger travel demand under sector, five
types of passenger modes under subsector, seventeen
types of technologies for a given mode under end-use,
seven types of alternative fuels under energy intensity,
and six types of pollutants under EDB as given in Figure 1.
The model considers five reference years: 1990/1991,
1995/1996, 2000/2001, 2005/2006 and 2010/2011.
Vehicle projections with attrition factor
Table 2 gives the estimated regression coefficients of the
time trend Equation (2) for different motorized modes in
Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore. These equations are used
for extrapolating the future growth in the number of
registered vehicles in these cities. However, in Mumbai,
extrapolation of vehicles are on the basis of their average
annual growth rate between the period 1992/1993 and
1994/1995 (Table 2), as the motor registration office in
Mumbai was split into two in 1992/1993. One for Mum-
bai and another for the outer cordon of Mumbai, with
vehicles registered in Mumbai prior to 1992/1993 were
shifted to the outer cordon.
Next, the estimated number of vehicles for the refer-
ence years is adjusted with appropriate attrition factors.
It is assumed that the attrition factor for a two-wheeled
Figure 1 Passenger Transport model in LEAP framework for India
vehicle is 15 years; for a three-wheeled vehicle, 20 years;
for car/jeep and taxi, 25 year each; and for a bus, 10 years.
For instance, the number of two-wheeled vehicles on
road in 2000/2001 would be equal to the difference be-
tween the extrapolated number of two-wheeled vehicles
in 2000/2001 obtained from Equation (1) and the total
number of registered two-wheeled vehicles in 1985/1986.
Thus, the number of registered vehicles adjusted with the
assumed attrition values provides the number of vehicles
hicles in use for a given mode.
Growth in the number of vehicles in use and their modal
share
Table 3 gives the estimated number of vehicles, adjusted
with appropriate attrition values, for the past, present
and future in the four cities. Between 1995/1996 and
2010/2011, the total number of vehicles in Delhi is ex-
pected to increase by almost 40%, that in Calcutta by
19%, that in Mumbai by 77%, and that in Bangalore by
49%. Privately owned vehicles for personal transport
would continue to claim the major share but is expected
to decline marginally in future, as given in Table 3. In
view of the paucity of data for Mumbai, it is assumed that
the composition of different modes would remain con-
stant during this period.
Growth in passenger travel demand and
modal split
In the absence of any city-specific data on the average
occupancy and utilization of personal and intermediate
 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1005

modes of passenger transport, common data is used in

Mumbai

28.49%

11.53%
7.92%

20.64%
7.50%
Annual
growth
each of the four cities (ENCON, 1987). Table 4 gives the
average occupancy figures for different modes and their
utilization, which are used in Equation (1) for estimating
the travel demand in each of the cities (Table 5). The total

0.66
0.99

0.94

0.81
0.96
R2

passenger travel demand catered by road in Delhi is

expected to grow over 300%, from 47 billion passenger
kilometre (bpkm) in 1990/1991 to 143 bpkm in
(11.93)
2010/2011. The corresponding figures for other cities are

(4.20)

(6.18)
0.06
0.12

0.05
c ln t

Calcutta 130% (from 12 to 16 bpkm); Mumbai 210%

—

(from 31 to 67 bpkm); and Bangalore 390% (from 14 to

54 bpkm). The estimated travel demand by road in Delhi
Bangalore

and Bangalore are much higher compared to the other

two cities as large proportion of the total travel demand
(40.9)

(15.4)
40509.7

5385.1

in Calcutta and Mumbai is catered by railways. How-

bt

—
—

ever, travel demand in Delhi and Bangalore are totally

catered by road.
(21.2)

(19.5)
(133.2)

(150.8)
(81.6)
7.4
142587.3

9.1

46335.7

8.6

Modal split
a

Table 5 also gives the distribution of total passenger

Table 2 Estimated regression coefficientsa for Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore and compound annual growth rateb for Mumbai

travel demand by different mode (modal split) and their

respective technologies. Such detailed disaggregation
0.94
0.92

0.99
0.98

0.93
R2

of passenger travel demand by technologies till 2010/

2011 captures the penetration of different technologies
in meeting the growing demand for personal mobility in
(9.3)
(23.6)

(10.1)

(27.3)

(11.8)
1055.1
2568.9

7151.6
15268.7

267.5

the four cities. In spite of a very large fleet of private

Calcutta

bt

vehicles in each city, currently buses meet a very high

volume of travel demand. Nearly, 53% of the total
passenger travel demand in Delhi was met by buses
during 1995/96, and this share would increase steadily to
(!0.24)
!416.6

10785.8
(50.2)
(19.5)

(74.4)

(17.9)
10880.5
85602.5

66% in 2010/11 (Table 5). In Calcutta and Bangalore, on

132203
a

the other hand, the demand for buses is expected to

decline-B from 32% in 1995/96 to 26% in 2010/11 in
Calcutta and from 67% to 59% in Bangalore. In Mum-
bai, buses would continue to meet 80% of the travel
Figures in parentheses are t-values, significant at 95% level of confidence.
0.96
0.99
0.99

0.96

—
R2

demand.
The percentage of travel demand met by privately
owned vehicles for personal transport is expected to
decline marginally between 1995/1996 and 2010/2011 in
c ln t

0.04

0.07
(24.7)
(14.9)
—
—

Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore. In Mumbai, it would

remain at the same level (Table 5). However, cleaner

Data is used for the period 1992/1993 to 1994/1995.
Data is used for the period 1984/1985 to 1994/1995.

Data is used for the period 1985/1986 to 1994/1995.

technologies like four-stroke engines and cars with cata-

Delhi

(72.76)

(14.04)

lytic convertors would claim a greater share in the total

(30.5)
43071.8
104396.5

4988.6

fleet. A shift from gasoline to diesel driven cars, jeeps and

—

—
bt

Insignificant at 95% level of confidence.

taxis is expected in the near future, mostly because diesel

is cheaper than gasoline by more than 50%.
The role of three-wheeled autorickshaws in meeting
(48.4)

passenger travel demand in Bangalore would increase by

(503.1)
(10.3)

(9.3)

(495.3)
88573.7

9.0

9.4
470776.9

24739.1

about 3.5 times in 2010/2011 from its current share of 7%

a

and in Calcutta its rise would be about 1.3 times from its
present share of 15%. However, in Delhi, the share of
autorickshaws would decline from 8% to 5%. In Mum-
bai, autorickshaws would meet a little over 7% of the
total travel demand in the next decade. Taxis are ex-
Car/jeep
Mode

pected to meet between 1% and 7% of the travel demand

2-wh

3-wh

Taxi

Bus

in the four cities in near future.

1006 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 3 Vehicles projection and composition with attrition factor

City Year Composition (%) Total vehicles

2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus

Delhi 1990/91 68.01 3.61 26.99 0.70 0.68 1444765

1995/96 68.13 3.45 27.32 0.43 0.67 1991036
2000/01 65.12 3.65 29.99 0.44 0.81 2427011
2005/06 59.70 3.57 35.19 0.51 1.03 2591019
2010/11 56.21 3.46 38.47 0.51 1.35 2786016
Calcutta 1990/91 42.25 5.14 47.20 4.87 0.54 394731
1995/96 50.50 6.85 38.10 3.95 0.60 444232
2000/01 47.39 8.94 38.60 4.51 0.55 483794
2005/06 45.01 9.13 40.59 4.74 0.53 503224
2010/11 43.25 9.19 42.18 4.88 0.51 529594
Mumbai 1990/91 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 343946
1995/96 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 415788
2000/01 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 502636
2005/06 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 607625
2010/11 45.26 10.53 36.84 5.26 2.11 734544
Bangalore 1990/91 78.76 2.42 17.84 0.51 0.46 474316
1995/96 79.40 4.51 15.02 0.37 0.69 651047
2000/01 77.16 7.42 14.26 0.46 0.71 797115
2005/06 69.70 13.63 15.26 0.64 0.77 848604
2010/11 62.73 21.84 13.80 0.76 0.88 968677

. not change; (b) the share of cars and jeeps together will
Table 4 Occupancy and utilization of different vehicles reduce by half in Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore and by
a quarter in Calcutta; and (c) the rest is split in the ratio
City Average occupancy (persons/vehicle) 2 : 1 between two-wheeled vehicles and intermediate pub-
lic transport modes (i.e. autorickshaws and taxis to-
2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus gether). Table 6 quantifies these assumptions.
Delhi 1.5 1.76 2.68 1.57 37.28
(13.5) (120) (27) (85) (186) Scenario 2 (S2): Promoting cleaner fuel and improved
Calcutta 1.5 1.76 2.59 1.57 33.76
(13.5) (100) (27) (85) (126) engine technologies
Mumbai 1.5 1.76 1.57 1.57 38.62
(13.5) (100) (27) (85) (245) This scenario examines the impact of improved technolo-
Bangalore 1.5 1.76 2.67 1.57 39.46 gies and cleaner and alternative fuels on energy demand
(13.5) (100) (27) (85) (262)
and emissions in a phased manner. To illustrate this,
Figure in parentheses are average daily vehicle utilization expressed in scenario 2, compared to BAU scenario in 2010/2011,
km/day. assumes the following: (a) the share of four-stroke engines
Sources: GOI (1996), and ENCON (1987). in Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai would increase from
11%—12% to 50%, while that in Bangalore would in-
crease from 20% to 25% with a view to phase out
Scenario construction and assumptions two-stroke technologies; (b) 15% of autorickshaws
would run on propane and 10% would run on electricity
Business-as-usual (bau) scenario (battery operated vehicles); (c) the share of cars fitted with
three-way catalytic convertors using unleaded gasoline,
This scenario assumes that the present trends of growth
battery operated electric cars, and cars that use com-
in the registration of vehicles in each city will continue
pressed natural gas (CNG) cars would increase whereas,
and the present fuel efficiency norms, occupancy levels
the share of old model gasoline and diesel cars would
and vehicle utilization pattern for different modes will
decrease; (d) the share of CNG-powered taxis would
remain unchanged in future.
increase whereas, that of diesel-powered ones would de-
crease, and all taxis using gasoline would be fitted with
Scenario 1 (S1): strengthening of public buses three-way catalytic convertors; (e) the share of CNG-
powered and battery operated buses would increase; (f )
This scenario examines the impact of strengthening of the no CNG-based vehicles would be introduced in the next
network of public buses on energy use and emissions. To decade in Calcutta and Bangalore; (g) three-way catalytic
illustrate this, scenario 1, compared to BAU scenario in convertors (and therefore unleaded gasoline) would not
2010/2011 assumes the following: (a) buses would meet be introduced in Bangalore; and (f) sulphur content in
80% of the travel demand in Delhi, Calcutta and gasoline and diesel would reduce to 0.05% and 0.25%,
Bangalore whereas the share of buses in Mumbai would respectively. Table 7 quantifies these assumptions.
Table 5 Travel demand and its distribution by different modes and their technologies

City Year Share of travel demand by different types of technology in each mode (%) Total annual
passenger travel
2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus demand (109 pkm)

2-st. 4-st. pre-1984 post-1984 catalytic diesel petrol diesel diesel

convertor

Delhi 1990/91 14.85 0.59 8.55 4.50 15.88 0.00 1.68 0.63 0.42 52.90 47.05
1995/96 14.88 0.78 8.27 3.39 16.96 0.45 1.81 0.20 0.46 52.80 64.00
2000/01 12.34 0.93 7.75 1.76 13.20 3.74 3.30 0.12 0.47 56.40 88.05
2005/06 9.37 0.93 6.42 0.44 10.27 6.56 4.59 0.06 0.52 60.83 110.98
2010/11 7.20 0.89 5.20 0.20 6.98 7.97 4.78 0.02 0.46 66.30 143.08
Calcutta 1990/91 9.91 0.61 11.11 16.42 12.89 0.00 12.97 4.80 3.20 28.10 11.72
1995/96 11.62 1.01 14.89 10.98 13.04 0.69 9.61 1.96 4.56 31.65 13.12
2000/01 10.52 1.04 18.96 8.14 8.47 5.76 11.53 1.45 5.80 28.33 14.66
2005/06 9.69 1.20 19.20 6.01 7.07 9.54 12.73 0.75 6.79 27.01 15.38
2010/11 9.21 1.26 19.33 4.41 5.88 12.86 13.60 0.39 7.39 25.68 16.17
Mumbai 1990/91 3.43 0.24 7.42 2.86 2.05 0.00 1.36 1.69 1.13 79.83 31.33
1995/96 3.16 0.51 7.42 1.88 2.50 0.13 1.75 0.84 1.97 79.83 37.87
2000/01 3.09 0.59 7.42 1.50 1.94 0.94 1.88 0.56 2.25 79.83 45.78
2005/06 3.01 0.66 7.42 1.25 1.25 1.56 2.19 0.28 2.53 79.83 55.34
2010/11 2.94 0.73 7.42 0.75 1.13 2.00 2.38 0.14 2.67 79.83 66.90
Bangalore 1990/91 18.32 1.25 5.23 5.34 6.66 0.00 3.96 0.50 0.33 58.40 14.11
1995/96 12.60 2.40 7.41 2.04 5.21 0.00 2.96 0.14 0.32 66.92 25.48
2000/01 10.60 3.17 11.50 1.47 4.76 0.00 2.93 0.11 0.43 65.04 33.02
2005/06 7.38 3.47 18.45 1.20 4.28 0.00 3.08 0.07 0.59 61.49 40.28
2010/11 5.15 3.16 25.13 0.72 3.22 0.00 2.63 0.03 0.63 59.33 54.07
Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose
1007
1008 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 6 Changes in share of travel demand by different modes in 2010/2011 (%)

City BAU scenario Scenario 1 with more share of buses

2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus 2-wh 3-wh Car/jeep Taxi Bus

Delhi 8 5 20 1 66 7 2 10 1 80
Calcutta 10 19 37 8 26 7 2 9 2 80
Mumbai 3 7 6 4 80 11 3 3 3 80
Bangalore 8 25 7 1 59 11 3 3 3 80

Table 7 Changes in technology and fuel type in 2010/2011(%)

Mode Technology/ BAU scenario Scenario 2

Fuel type
Delhi Calcutta Mumbai Bangalore Delhi Calcutta Mumbai Bangalore

2-wh 2-stroke 89 88 88 80 50 50 50 75
4-stroke 11 12 12 20 50 50 50 25
3-wh 2-stroke 100 100 100 100 75 75 75 75
Propane 0 0 0 0 15 15 15 15
BOV 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
Car/Jeep Pre-1984 model 1 12 12 11 0.5 6 6 5.5
Post-1984 model 35 16 18 49 17.5 8 9 25
Catalytic conv. 40 35 32 0 54 68 57 51.5
Diesel 24 37 38 40 15 15 15 15
CNG 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0
BOV 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3
Taxi Petrol 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Diesel 95 95 95 95 70 95 70 95
CNG 0 0 0 0 25 0 25 0
Bus Bus 100 100 100 100 80 95 80 95
CNG 0 0 0 0 15 0 15 0
BOV 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5

Scenario 3 (S3): Strengthening of the public bus network,
cleaner fuel and improved technologies
This scenario integrates the result of scenarios 1 and 2.
BAU results: 1990—2011
¹otal energy demand
Table 8 summarizes the energy demand estimates ob-
tained using equation (3) for passenger transportation in
the four cities. Total energy demand is expected to in-
crease by nearly 2.7 times in the city of Delhi between
1990/1991 and 2010/2011 (from 0.6 million tonnes of oil
equivalent (mtoe) to 1.61 mtoe) as shown in Figure 2.
During the same period, the increase in energy demand in
Calcutta would be from 0.25 to 0.34 mtoe; Mumbai, 0.33
to 0.71 mtoe; and Bangalore, 0.17 to 0.66 mtoe.
In 1995/1996, gasoline consumption in Delhi, Cal-
cutta, Mumbai and Bangalore was estimated to be 0.52,
0.15, 0.13 and 0.13 mtoe, respectively, as given in Table 8.
Whereas gasoline sales in these four cities were 0.48, 0.15,
0.23 and 0.12 mtoe, respectively (GOI, 1994). Such devi-
ations in estimated and actual gasoline consumption
could be due to the use of normative values of fuel
efficiency, occupancy and vehicle utilization levels, each
of which would vary under different urban driving condi-
tions. The other possible reason could be that the ve-
hicles going outside city limits probably buy gasoline
from the neighbouring region.
The diesel consumption in 1995/1 four cities was 0.28,
0.11, 0.27 and 0.14 mtoe in Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and
Bangalore, respectively (Table 8). These figures account
for 77%, 58%, 98% and 88%, respectively, of the total
diesel sold in the four cities during 1995/1996 (GOI,
1994).
Modal share of energy demand
Table 9 gives the percent share of total transport energy
demand by different modes in the four cities for the
period 1990/1991—2010/2011.
Emissions
Table 10 gives the average fuel efficiency norms and
emission factors for a range of technologies which are
either in use or are expected to be introduced in the
coming years. All new vehicles are assumed to have
three-way catalytic convertors to check the emissions of
CO, HC and NO . These emission factors are imple-
V
mented in equation (4) to estimate the emissions loading
 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1009

Table 8 Annual energy demand under alternate scenarios

Fueltype City BAU scenario Alternative scenarios: 2010/2011

1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011 S1 S2 S3

Gasoline Delhi 399 524 629 670 721 393 637 349
Calcutta 160 154 167 166 170 40 169 41
Mumbai 130 133 151 170 194 155 170 138
Bangalore 93 127 178 255 383 121 322 121
Diesel Delhi 203 280 450 649 893 956 673 740
Calcutta 94 106 135 156 173 122 129 108
Mumbai 202 269 335 420 517 499 386 381
Bangalore 76 143 183 219 280 401 241 376
Natural gas Delhi 0 0 0 0 0 0 145 150
Calcutta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mumbai 0 0 0 0 0 0 78 76
Bangalore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Propane Delhi 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 7
Calcutta 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0.8
Mumbai 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 5
Bangalore 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 4
Electricity Delhi 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 13
Calcutta 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1.5
Mumbai 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6
Bangalore 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5
Total Delhi 602 804 1079 1319 1614 1349 1489 1259
Calcutta 254 260 302 322 343 162 309 151
Mumbai 332 402 486 590 711 654 654 606
Bangalore 169 270 361 474 663 525 606 506

Figure 2 Energy demand under alternate scenarios

1010 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 9 Percent share of energy demand by modes in each city

City Modes 1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011

Delhi Scooters/motorcycles 13.79 14.20 12.25 9.74 8.01

Autorickshaws 14.24 14.04 13.50 11.52 9.83
Car/jeep 39.96 40.81 40.77 41.78 40.47
Taxi 4.58 3.05 2.90 2.98 2.67
Bus 27.43 27.90 30.58 33.98 39.02
Calcutta Scooters/motorcycles 5.51 7.21 6.30 5.81 5.49
Autorickshaws 10.93 16.07 19.62 19.55 19.43
Car/jeep 54.37 46.62 43.82 44.05 44.43
Taxi 20.59 19.47 21.13 22.03 22.61
Bus 8.60 10.63 9.13 8.56 8.04
Mumbai Scooters/motorcycles 3.93 3.82 3.79 3.76 3.74
Autorickshaws 14.94 14.91 14.91 14.86 14.89
Car/jeep 16.24 15.70 15.44 15.47 15.20
Taxi 14.83 15.63 15.91 16.12 16.29
Bus 50.06 49.94 49.95 49.79 49.88
Bangalore Scooters/motorcycles 18.61 15.57 13.50 9.57 6.87
Autorickshaws 9.35 14.95 22.45 33.44 43.67
Car/jeep 35.63 24.89 21.56 18.91 14.04
Taxi 3.89 2.56 2.97 3.38 3.32
Bus 32.52 42.03 39.52 34.70 32.10

Table 10 Average fuel efficiency and emission factors under a typical Indian urban driving cycle

Technology Fuel type Fuel efficiency Emission factors (gm/l)

km/l km/GJ CO HC NO TSP SO Pb

V 
2-wh: 2-stroke Gasoline 44.44 1233.38 368.85 230.20 4.44 22.22 2.1024 0.15
2-wh: 4-stroke Gasoline 65 1804.00 539.50 46.80 25.35 5.20 2.1024 0.15
2-wh: 4-stroke (catalytic convertor) Unleaded gasoline 65 1804.00 156.14 46.80 5.07 5.20 2.1024 neg
3-wh: 2-stroke Gasoline 20.41 566.46 250.02 156.14 2.04 10.21 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep: pre-1984 model Gasoline 9.43 261.72 272.53 58.47 25.46 3.11 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep: post-1984 model Gasoline 14.18 393.55 134.71 21.27 26.94 3.55 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep (catalytic convertor) Unleaded gasoline 14.8 410.76 38.48 4.44 8.88 1.18 2.1024 neg
Taxi Gasoline 9.43 261.72 272.53 58.47 25.46 3.11 2.1024 0.15
Car/jeep Diesel
8.86 232.42 9.75 2.48 12.40 5.32 8.2630 0
Taxi Diese l 8.86 232.42 9.75 2.48 12.40 5.32 8.2630 0
Bus Diesel 3.3 86.57 41.91 6.93 69.30 6.60 8.2630 0
3-wh (catalytic convertor) Propane — 833.33 (0.156) (4.68) (2.465) 0 0 0
Car/jeep CNG — 579.71 (0.224) 0 (3.52) 0 0 0
Taxi CNG — 385.36 (0.224) 0 (3.52) 0 0 0
Bus CNG — 89.53 (0.224) 0 (3.52) 0 0 0
3-wh BOV — 2785.52 0 0 0 0 0 0
Car/jeep BOV — 1739.13 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bus BOV — 358.17 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sulphur content in gasoline is assumed to be 0.15% (w/w) in 1995/96 and would reduce to 0.05% (w/w) in 2011/12; specific gravity of gasoline is
taken as 0.7008.

Sulphur content in diesel is assumed to be 0.5% (w/w) in 1995/96 and would reduce to 0.25% (w/w) in 2011/12; specific gravity of diesel is taken as
0.8263.
 0.75 m of CNG or Propane"1 l of gasoline; 1 m of CNG"1 l of diesel; specific gravity of natural gas is taken as 0.80, while that of Propane as
0.5602.
 Figures in parentheses are also emission factors but expressed in 10\ kg/m.
 Reactive HC.

Sources: IIP (1985), IIP (1994), World Bank (1997), WHO (1993), SEI-B (1993) and Schlesinger et al (1980), Personal communications with
Mr. I.V.Rao, R & D, Maruti Factory, Gurgaon.

of different pollutants in the four cities (Table 11). Annual
emissions of each pollutant is significantly higher in
Delhi compared to the other three cities.
Carbon monoxide. Gasoline driven vehicles contribute
the bulk of CO emissions. Scooters/ motorcycles and
autorickshaws, which are mostly two-stroke technolo-
gies, currently contribute nearly 55% of the total CO
emissions in Delhi. The corresponding figures for
Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore are 44%, 50% and
67%, respectively. In 2010/2011, it is estimated that CO
emission contribution from two- and three-wheeled ve-
hicles would further go up to 58% in Delhi, 64% in
Calcutta, 62% in Mumbai and 85% in Bangalore, if the
present trends continue. With the introduction of cata-
lytic convertor cars in April 1995 in the large metros,
 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1011

Table 11 Total annual emissions under BAU (thousand tonnes)

Pollutant City 1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011

CO Delhi 132.31 169.47 193.76 191.91 200.62

Calcutta 54.55 51.73 53.59 50.28 48.61
Mumbai 52.88 54.92 61.70 69.35 78.55
Bangalore 36.32 51.39 70.79 96.74 141.83
HC Delhi 53.79 70.20 81.96 80.63 82.48
Calcutta 17.70 19.69 22.51 22.14 22.24
Mumbai 19.88 21.77 25.23 29.31 34.15
Bangalore 15.38 22.81 32.68 47.11 73.63
NO Delhi 22.49 30.00 40.16 50.42 65.56
V
Calcutta 6.95 6.71 6.70 6.60 6.59
Mumbai 16.28 19.26 22.93 27.34 32.71
Bangalore 6.49 11.48 14.36 16.67 21.05
SO Delhi 3.03 4.11 6.01 8.03 10.49

Calcutta 1.34 1.43 1.75 1.94 2.12
Mumbai 2.28 2.92 3.60 4.46 5.46
Bangalore 0.98 1.71 2.23 2.79 3.72
TSP Delhi 6.03 8.11 10.30 11.59 13.39
Calcutta 1.88 2.16 2.52 2.64 2.76
Mumbai 2.79 3.40 4.10 4.97 5.99
Bangalore 1.83 2.89 3.86 5.01 7.15
Pb Delhi 0.078 0.102 0.111 0.104 0.098
Calcutta 0.031 0.030 0.030 0.027 0.025
Mumbai 0.026 0.026 0.028 0.030 0.033
Bangalore 0.018 0.025 0.035 0.050 0.075

which include Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai, contribution
of CO emission would decline in future. Currently, in
Calcutta, over half the CO loading is from passenger
cars/jeeps and taxis taken together. This is because the
average mass emission factor for a typical car fitted with
catalytic convertor is considerably less than that of old
model cars without the catalytic convertors (Table 10). In
Bangalore the emissions of CO from cars would increase
because cars fitted with catalytic convertors have not
been introduced there. The share of buses in CO emis-
sions would continue to rise in Delhi, Calcutta and
Mumbai in the coming years, but would decline in
Bangalore.
Hydrocarbons. HC emission rates are higher in gaso-
line than diesel vehicles due to lower combustion efficien-
cy in gasoline engines. Among the gasoline driven two
and three-wheelers, two-stroke engines are highly ineffic-
ient as compared to the ones with four-stroke engines.
Typically, a four-stroke motorcycle can provide upto
45% more fuel efficiency than a two-stroke. The HC
emissions (largely unburned gasoline) is a factor of
7 higher for two-stroke engines when compared with
four-stroke engines (Table 10). In 1995/1996 over 80%
HC emissions is contributed by scooters, motorcycles
and autorickshaws in Delhi. The corresponding figures in
Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore are 71%, 76% and
86%, respectively. Very little efforts have been made for
introducing four-stroke engines in cities. As a result if
two- and three-wheeled vehicles mainly with two-stroke
technology continue to grow at its present pace, it is
estimated that by 2010/2011, HC emission contribution
from these vehicles would increase dramatically to 84%
in Delhi, 85% in Calcutta, 84% in Mumbai and 95% in
Bangalore, respectively.
Oxides of nitrogen. The emission rate of NO is higher
V
in diesel driven heavy duty vehicles (like, buses and
commercial goods vehicles) because of lower combustion
temperatures as compared to gasoline vehicles. Buses
contribute nearly 65% of the total NO emission in
V
Delhi, 33% in Calcutta, 83% in Mumbai and 79% in
Bangalore during 1995/1996. These shares would further
increase in each city by 2010/2011. Cars/jeeps and taxis
which are mainly diesel driven also contribute significant
NO emission. In Calcutta, their share of emission is 63%
V
in 1995/1996, while the corresponding figures in Delhi,
Mumbai and Bangalore are 37%, 15% and 17%, respec-
tively. Contribution of NO emission from car/jeep and
V
taxis however would decline by 2010/2011. NO emission
V
share in the four cities would remain below 4% over the
next 15 years.
Sulphur dioxide. Emission rate of SO is higher in

diesel than in gasoline vehicles. For calculation of SO

emissions sulphur concentration in gasoline is taken as
0.15% w/w in 1995/1996 and 0.05% w/w in 2010/2011.
Similarly, in diesel, sulphur concentration is assumed to
be 0.5% w/w in 1995/1996 and 0.25% w/w in 2010/2011.
Further, it is assumed that all the sulphur gets converted
to SO and is exhausted through the tail pipe. In

1995/1996, between 50% and 65% of the total SO

emission is contributed by buses in Delhi, Mumbai and
Bangalore, while in Calcutta, car/jeep and taxi together
contribute nearly 70% emission. Two and three-wheeled
vehicles contributed relatively less SO emission.

1012 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose
¹otal suspended particulate. Diesel vehicles emit signifi-
cant TSP as compared to the gasoline vehicles. In
1995/1996, about 40% of the total TSP emission in Delhi
was from scooters and motor cycles which is expected to
decline to 26% in 2010/2011. The corresponding figures
in the other three cities are from 24% to 19% in Calcutta,
12% to 11% in Mumbai and from 38% to 14% in
Bangalore. Emission share from three wheelers would
increase in Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore from
1995/1996 to 2010/2011, except in Delhi. In the case of
cars/jeeps and taxis, emission of TSP would increase in
Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai but, in Bangalore its share
would decrease. TSP emission contribution from buses in
Delhi would increase from 21% in 1995/1996 to 36% in
2010/2011 whereas, in Calcutta and Bangalore it would
decrease. In Mumbai, buses currently contribute around
45% of the total TSP emission and would remain around
the same level till 2010/2011.
¸ead. At present, majority of Pb emission in Delhi and
Calcutta are contributed by cars/jeeps and taxis taken
Figure 3 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Delhi
together. But its share would decline in 2010/2011. With
present trend in growth and composition of autorick-
shaws in Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore, Pb emission
share would increase considerably to 51%, 63% and
76%, respectively, by 2010/2011.
Scenario results in comparison to BAU
¹otal energy
Figure 2 shows the trend in total energy demand from
1990/1991 to 2010/2011 under the alternative scenarios
compared to BAU in the four cities. Total reduction in
energy demand would be substantial in Delhi, Calcutta
and Bangalore with more buses on road than with
a gradual introduction of cleaner fuel and improved
technologies. However, in Mumbai, since buses are as-
sumed to meet the same level of travel demand in scen-
ario 1 as compared to BAU and since the share of
 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1013

cars/jeeps is expected to decline, the extent of energy the BAU scenario. The energy savings potential in Cal-
savings would be almost equal in both scenarios 1 and 2. cutta, Bangalore and Mumbai is 191,850, 157,900 and
The potential for energy savings is over 55% in Cal- 105,020 toe, respectively. On an annual per capita basis,
cutta during 2010/2011, if the recommendations of scen- scenario 3 in 2010/2011 would result in 25 kgoe of energy
ario 3 are implemented (Table 8), whereas in Bangalore, savings in Delhi, 12 kgoe in Calcutta, 8 kgoe in Mumbai
Delhi and Mumbai, the energy savings potential under and 21 kgoe in Bangalore.
scenario 3 is 24%, 22% and 15%, respectively. Substan-
tial energy savings potential is observed in Calcutta due
Changes in fuel mix
to the assumption that travel demand by bus would
increase from 26% in BAU to 80% in scenario 1 in
Table 8 also gives the estimated energy demand by type
2010/2011, but such quantum increase is implausible.
of fuels in 2010/2011 under alternative scenarios. Each
With transport energy requirement in Delhi during
city would follow a different fuel mix composition, with
2010/2011 under BAU over 2.3 times that in Mumbai
increasing share of diesel and alternate fuels like CNG,
and Bangalore and nearly 5 times that in Calcutta,
propane and electricity and decreasing share of gasoline
strengthening of mass transport with a view to reduce
in the coming years.
traffic congestion and promoting cleaner fuel and im-
proved technology would result in maximum benefit in
terms of energy savings in Delhi. Total energy savings Emissions reduction potential w.r.t. BAº
potential in Delhi during 2010/2011 with more buses and
clean technology is 355,540 toe which is equivalent to Figures 3—6 also show the results of emissions trend
what Bangalore would require during 2000/2001 under of CO, HC, NO , SO , TSP and Pb under alternate
V 

Figure 4 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Calcutta

1014 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose
Figure 5 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Mumbai
scenarios compared to that of BAU in Delhi, Calcutta,
Mumbai and Bangalore. Table 12 summarizes the per-
centage reduction or addition of emissions in alternative
scenarios compared to the BAU in 2010/2011 in all the
four cities.
Assumptions under more buses scenario on city roads
of Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore would bring down CO
and HC emissions at a much greater level than the
cleaner fuel and improved technology scenario. In
2010/2011, more buses along with the introduction of
cleaner fuel and improved technology would lead into
a maximum reduction of CO in Calcutta by 74% and
least in Mumbai by 28% compared to BAU. Similarly,
HC reduction potential is highest in Calcutta 80% and
the least in Mumbai 28%. Reduction potential of SO in

2010/2011 is highest in Calcutta 46%, Mumbai 27% and
Delhi 24%, if both the strategies are adopted, while it
would increase by 5% in Bangalore. Adopting the recom-
mendations of scenario 3 would lead to higher NO
V
reduction compared to more buses. Scenario 3 compared
to BAU in 2010/2011 would reduce NO emissions by
V
15% in Delhi and 22% in Mumbai. While in Calcutta
and Bangalore, NO emissions level would increase by
V
12% and 16%, respectively. Introduction of cleaner fuel
and improved technology would lead to 20—25% reduc-
tion in TSP emissions in all the four cities in 2010/2011
compared to BAU. Introduction of more buses would
reduce TSP emissions by over 50% in Calcutta, 32% in
Bangalore and 14% in Delhi, but would increase by 5%
in Mumbai. Adopting recommendations of the two strat-
egies would lead to a reduction potential of TSP of 59%
in Calcutta, 37% Delhi, 34% Bangalore and 21% in
Mumbai. In Delhi, Calcutta and Bangalore, potential for
reduction of Pb emissions is higher with more buses, but
in Mumbai, promoting cleaner fuel and improved tech-
nology would lead to a higher reduction of Pb compared

Figure 6 Trends in emissions under alternate scenarios in Bangalore
to BAU in 2010/2011. Reduction potential of Pb with the
two strategies is considerable in 2010/11 in all the four
cities: Delhi 60%, Calcutta 83%, Mumbai 31% and
Bangalore 73%.
Conclusions
This paper has formulated a passenger transport model
which can help in analysing current energy consumption
and simulate energy futures along with environmental
emissions under a range of user-defined assumptions.
The model can simulate the effect of alternative transport
strategies on the energy—environment scene. Through the
use of a comprehensive secondary transport database
compiled for four metropolitan cities, namely Delhi, Cal-
cutta, Mumbai and Bangalore, the paper has illustrated
the effect of two much-discussed policy strategies
— strengthening of public transport (a demand manage-
Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose 1015
ment option) and promoting cleaner fuel and improved
technology (supply side intervention) — on potential en-
ergy demand and emissions as compared to the BAU
scenario for the period 1990/1991 to 2010/2011.
Many cities in developing countries are experiencing
the high costs of motorization.The state-of-the-art tech-
nological solutions to deal with manifested environ-
mental problems are expensive and difficult to afford
given the limited financial and economic resources avail-
able in developing countries. Policy makers in these
countries need to be selective and emphasize cost-effec-
tive solutions. In particular, they need to complement
supply side interventions with demand management
measures, if the ultimate objective is to conserve energy
and improve air quality levels in developing country
cities. The analytical framework discussed in this paper is
useful and can be applied to any city in evaluating and
prioritizing strategies to formulate an integrated policy
package to achieve the desired level of emission targets in
a specified time frame.
1016 Automotive energy use and emissions control: R K Bose

Table 12 Annual emissions in alternative scenarios and reduction potential in 2010/2011

Pollutant City Total emissions (thousand tonnes) Percentage reduction (!)/ addition (#) w.r.t. BAU

S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3

CO Delhi 141.25 142.00 100.52 !29.59 !29.22 !49.90

Calcutta 16.67 35.58 12.63 !65.71 !26.81 !74.02
Mumbai 80.28 57.87 56.76 2.20 !26.33 !27.74
Bangalore 65.94 105.01 54.93 !53.51 !25.96 !61.27
HC Delhi 54.81 56.82 37.19 !33.55 !31.11 !54.91
Calcutta 6.40 15.89 4.47 !71.22 !28.55 !79.90
Mumbai 34.47 25.10 24.62 0.94 !26.50 !27.91
Bangalore 24.83 56.31 24.91 !66.28 !23.52 !66.17
NO Delhi 69.70 51.53 55.54 6.31 !21.40 !15.28

Calcutta 7.99 5.52 7.40 21.24 !16.24 12.29
Mumbai 32.15 26.04 25.63 !1.71 !20.39 !21.64
Bangalore 26.43 18.84 24.44 25.56 !10.50 16.10
SO Delhi 10.18 8.16 8.01 !2.96 !22.21 !23.64

Calcutta 1.28 1.70 1.14 !39.62 !19.81 !46.23
Mumbai 5.17 4.14 4.01 !5.31 !24.18 !26.56
Bangalore 4.18 3.18 3.92 12.37 !14.52 5.38
TSP Delhi 11.53 9.67 8.49 !13.89 !27.78 !36.59
Calcutta 1.37 2.05 1.13 !50.36 !25.72 !59.06
Mumbai 6.32 4.48 4.71 5.51 !25.21 !21.37
Bangalore 4.84 5.72 4.73 !32.31 !20.00 !33.85
Pb Delhi 0.055 0.066 0.039 !43.59 !32.35 !60.12
Calcutta 0.006 0.018 0.004 !76.60 !30.47 !83.04
Mumbai 0.028 0.024 0.023 !15.22 !26.50 !30.90
Bangalore 0.024 0.056 0.021 !68.54 !25.48 !72.80

Acknowledgements ENCON (Engineering Consultants Private Ltd.) (1987) Estimation of

The paper is prepared from a draft final research report
entitled ‘Environmental Aspects of Energy ºse in ¸arge
Indian Metropolises’, completed in December 1997, by
the author on behalf of the Tata Energy Research Insti-
tute, New Delhi, under the project number 94EM53. The
financial support provided by the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency, Stockholm, to
complete the study is gratefully acknowledged. The
author is grateful to Mr Yateen Joshi for several editorial
suggestions.
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