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Dear Attendees,
It is truly my honour to interact with you in the 1Hour Live Webinar
Session with KCLau.com on March 22, 2016.
Personally, I have prepared a lot of materials for this particular webinar.
This includes compilation of financial, operating and share price data of
over 70 property stocks listed mostly on Bursa Malaysia. For this
webinar notes, I would cover the 5 things that you need to know first
before investing your money into property stocks. They include:
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#1: Property Stocks Have No Real Income-Generating
Assets
Property stocks are different from REITs. For a start, if you invest in
REITs, you are buying into a portfolio of incomeproducing commercial
recurring income
properties for rental income. You will receive from the
REIT as long as it continues to own its commercial properties.
Meanwhile, property stocks derive income from sales of properties.
Once the developed properties are sold and transferred to their
no longer derive recurring
respective buyers, property stocks would
income
from them.
In fact, the balance sheet of property stocks are comparable with the
balance sheet of a manufacturing company. For instance,
Definition of the 5 Largest Assets of a Property Stock
No. Property Stocks Manufacturing Company
1 Land Held for Development Raw Material
Property WorkinProgress
2 Development Cost (HalfBuilt Property)
3 Inventories Unsold Products
4 Trade Receivables Buyers who Haven’t Pay
5 Cash & Cash Equivalent Lifeblood of the Company
Let us look at them in greater detail:
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1. Land held for development
are often lands that have yet to be
developed. By themselves, these parcel of lands do not generate
recurring income for its shareholders. Hence, it is comparable to
a manufacturing company which buys raw materials and left
them in their warehouses. By themselves, these materials do not
bring income to the manufacturing company.
2. Property development costs
are associated with land
acquisition and direct cost attributable to property development
projects. It refers to properties that are halfbuilt. To put it simply,
it is like ‘workinprogress’ products which can be realistically
recovered for money from a manufacturer’s point of view.
3. Inventories
are completed properties which have yet to be sold.
4. Trade Receivables
are cash to be recovered from their
customers for sales made. If you sell a product to customer
which promises to pay you in 30 days but did not, then, the trade
receivables would be ‘Past Due’. If the customer could not pay,
then, the trade receivables would be ‘Bad Debts’. Property stocks
that have excessive ‘Past Due’ trade receivables and ‘Bad Debt’
is definitely a ‘NoNo’.
5. Cash
is king. It is the one that gets the project going. We would
prefer property stocks that have excessive cash reserves which
could be invested into acquire more land for development, or
investment properties for recurring income. Alternatively, these
excessive cash could be distributed to investors in the form of
dividends.
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#2: Profits are Estimates
stage of completion
Revenue and cost are accounted based on the of a
property development project.
Often, the stage of completion is determined by the proportion that
property development costs incurred for work performed to date bear to
the estimated total property development costs. For instance,
Stage of Completion
= Cost Incurred to Date / Total Estimated Cost
Cash-Based Revenues
Hence, it is different from stocks that derive
such as Berjaya Food Bhd (Starbucks & Kenny Rogers) and Padini
Holdings Bhd (Apparels). Usually, these companies would generate
positive operating cash flows if they are profitable.
Meanwhile, property stocks often have their cash tied up in working
capital assets mentioned earlier. They include land held for
development, property development costs, inventories and trade
receivables. Hence, the amount of working capital needed for property
stocks is usually higher than companies that generate cashbased
revenues.
#3: Dividend Payout Ratio > 20%
This also means, property stocks usually do not pay out high level of
dividends to its existing shareholders.
Here, we would calculate and compare the cashtocurrent assets and
dividend payout ratio for both property stocks and REITs. Apparently,
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property stocks have lower dividend payout ratio as they have lower
levels of cash in their balance sheet compared to REITs.
Cashto Dividend
Current Asset Payout
No. Stock Name Ratio (%) Ratio (%)
Crescendo Corporation
2 Bhd 41.31% 34.34%
Matrix Concept Holdings
3 Bhd 7.49% 30.83%
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Thus, REITs are more suitable for income-based investors who are
seeking high dividend yields.
Despite low dividend payout ratio, investors may view in favour of
property stocks that has a minimum dividend payout ratio of 20% per
annum. Companies that has a track record of paying out at least 20% of
its earnings to its shareholders are deemed to have better & stronger
cash flow management than its peers.
Dividend Payout Ratio > 20%
= Stronger Cash Flow Management than its Peers
#4: Return on Equity (ROE) > 10%
Which of the 2 stocks would I choose?
Choice 1 2
Dividend
Payout
Ratio (%) 47.05% 90.39%
More Explanation before You Decide:
1. SP Setia Bhd pays out 47.05% of its earnings to its shareholders
consistently. It had retained 52.95% of its earnings within the
company. The retained earnings were then reinvested back into
the company. From which, SP Setia Bhd was able to maintain its
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ROE at 9.05% per annum.
2. Meanwhile, Hektar REIT has paid out 90.39% of its realized
earnings to its shareholders. It does not need to retain much
earnings to generate a consistent ROE of 9.68% per annum.
My Choice
Between the 2 stocks, I might have to go with Hektar REIT. This is
because SP Setia Bhd needs to conserve 53.95% of its earnings,
reinvesting them only to achieve the level of ROE equivalent to Hektar
REIT over the last 5 years. In this case, I prefer to have cash payouts
than having my share of earnings ‘stuck’ within SP Setia Bhd.
What Property Stocks do with Retained Earnings?
As mentioned, property stocks do not generate income after selling off
their developed properties. Hence, in addition to working capital, they
need to retain profits to acquire new land held for development. This is
also known as landbanking. They are important to generate income for
future years.
Hence, if I have to forgo dividend payouts, then logically, I would want
my share of earnings to be reinvested back into the company for higher
returns or ROE.
Often, REITs generate 6% 10% in ROE and pay a minimum of 90% of
its realized earnings to its shareholders. Thus, using REITs as a
benchmark, I would be aiming for property stocks that has a track record
of generating above 10% in ROE per annum consistently. The high
levels of ROE is to compensate for the dividends forgone.
Return on Equity > 10%
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= Compensate My Forgone Dividends
#5: Drivers of Future Growth
There are 3 things which would influence the financial performance of a
property stocks in future years. They include:
Unbilled Sales
Unbilled sales are revenues which have yet to be reported in a
company’s financial statements. These could be property sales achieved
by their current projects. Often, they would be reported in the next 1 2
financial year. Thus, unbilled sales provides income visibility to investors
over a short period.
Landbanking
As mentioned, landbanking is often referred to a property company’s
purchase to increase their land holdings. It is important for companies to
replenish their available land for development to ensure continuity of
future revenues and profits. Often, we would place more focus onto
companies which reveal their size of their available landbank.
Property Launches
It is crucial for companies in this sector to report candidly about their
present and future project undertakings. Here, we want to know what the
project is, the duration of the project and its Gross Development Value
(GDV). Often, you would find these information in the Chairman’s and
CEO’s Statements and the Operating Review within a company’s annual
reports.
As mentioned, the property sector is forwardlooking. Property
companies that report candidly on their future prospects are often
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welcomed by investors. This is because they allow investors to assess
the company’s future earnings potential, thus, projecting investors’
confidence. Usually, property companies that reveal little about their
operations are less interested by investors.
Conclusion: Who is it for?
So, are property stocks for you?
If you are into dividends, then, property stocks may not be for you.
If you are into capital gains over the next 2 3 years, then perhaps, you
may consider putting fundamentally strong property stocks into your
investment portfolio. Here, I would provide 6 key distinctions between
property stocks and REITs. This would help you decide which sector you
may be interested to explore first.
No. Differences in Property Stocks REITs
Unbilled Sales,
Landbanking,
New Property
5 Growth Launches Buy New Properties
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Cheers
Sincerely From,
Ian Tai
Founder of Bursaking.com.my
The Simplest Stock Filter in Malaysia
Disclaimer:
The strategies outlined in this article / report / written material is
intended for education & illustration purposes. It is strictly not
intended to be an investment advice & must not be relied upon as
personal financial advice. If you need specific investment advices,
please consult the relevant professional investment advisors.
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