Nov-09

NOTES:

The papers listed here have been obtained by search SPE and IPTC papers post 2005 on the SPE's OnePetro
The papers relating to reservoir engineering have been catergorised for inclusion on the reservoirengineering.org.uk website
The affiiations searched were;

Total No Papers Reservoir Engineering Related

BP 551 175
Shell 575 279
Chevron 482 238
ConocoPhillips 191 68
Marathon 55 37
Total 255 129
Schlumberger 1130 563
Imperial College, London 95 53
Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh 235 175
(Anywhere in Article)
Total 3569 1717

Total number of papers published post 2005 10,000

35% of papers published categorised

 Paper
Organisation Source No. Chapter Section
Distinguished Author SPE 13398 Energy Resources Forecasting
Distinguished Author SPE 116395 Energy Resources Reserves
Distinguished Author SPE 13946 Energy Resources Reserves estimation
Distinguished Author SPE 103434 Energy Resources Reserves Estimation
Subject
Aggregation
 Title
The Art and Science of Energy Forecasting
Methods for Probabilistic Aggregation of Oil and Gas Field Reserves
Oil and Gas Reserves Classification, Estimation, and Evaluation
Reserves Estimation: The Challenge for the Industry
 Author Abstract
Burns, Thomas G. Burns Thomas G. IntroductionIn the 1970's ener
Jan van Elk, Woodside Energy Limited; Ritu Gupta, Curtin University of T Abstract Oil companies use statistical decision-m
Garb, Forrest A. Garb Forrest A. SPE IntroductionThe life-style of
Ferruh Demirmen, SPE, Petroleum Consultant Distinguished Author Series articles are general d
ntroductionIn the 1970's energy forecasting moved into the limelight. Market forces which had evolved during extended industry growth c
ies use statistical decision-making techniques like portfolio analysis to make more informed decisions and estimate resource volumes mor
E IntroductionThe life-style of 20th-century man has been influenced more by oil and gas than any other natural resource and indications a
Series articles are general descriptive representations that summarize the state of the art in an area of technology by describing recent de
 tended industry growth combined with political events to trigger two disruptions to the normal flows of petroleum. These oil shocks" raised
ate resource volumes more accurately. In general companies using these techniques are more successful. Probabilistic aggregation and dep
esource and indications are that oil and gas reserves will increase in importance the remainder of this century. Oil and gas production pro
y by describing recent developments for readers who are not specialists in the topics discussed. Written by individuals recognized as exper
 . These oil shocks" raised the awareness of politicians and the general public to the significant role of energy supply in the modem econom
listic aggregation and dependency estimation are essential in portfolio methods and resource estimation. However current methods have s
Oil and gas production provides inexpensive portable energy and supplies feedstock to an portable energy and supplies feedstock to an inte
uals recognized as experts in the area these articles provide key references to more definitive work and present specific details only to illus
pply in the modem economy. Suddenly energy-particularly oil-was everyone's business. Almost everyone had a complaint and a prescript
r current methods have some very real limitations. Probabilistic aggregation and dependency estimation are recognised in the SPE/WPC/
pplies feedstock to an international petrochemical industry that manufactures synthetic textiles and medicines and supports world agricultu
specific details only to illustrate the technology. Purpose: to inform the general readership of recent advances in various areas of petroleum
 omplaint and a prescription. "Experts" appeared as if by magic each prescription. "Experts" appeared as if by magic each suggesting a di
ognised in the SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) for multi-field integrated projects. However Sec
d supports world agriculture. Crops are planted cultivated treated with pesticides fertilized harvested moved to market and pesticides f
rious areas of petroleum engineering. Introduction Reserves estimation is one of the most essential tasks in the petroleum industry. It is t
agic each suggesting a different path out of the wilderness. At the core of the uncertainty were some basic economic and forecasting prob
ed projects. However Section 4.2.1 of the PRMS recommends that “results reporting beyond this (field property or project) level should
market and pesticides fertilized harvested moved to market and cooked with oil and/or gas. Wars have been fought to ensure petroleum
e petroleum industry. It is the process by which the economically recoverable hydrocarbons in a field area or region are evaluated quantitat
omic and forecasting problems. Are we really running out of oil? Do oil and energy obey the laws of supply and demand? Is energy deman
ty or project) level should use arithmetic summation by category but should caution that the aggregate Proved may be a very conservative
ought to ensure petroleum availability and reserve estimates have dictated actions of governments entire industries individual companie
on are evaluated quantitatively. Downward revisions of U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC)-booked reserves by some oil compa
emand? Is energy demand price elastic? Can a cartel really work for long? Is it possible to understand all of the ramifications of a particula
ay be a very conservative estimate and aggregate 3P may be very optimistic depending on the number of items in the aggregate. Arithmetic
tries individual companies lending institutions and private investors. Many petroleum engineers spend a major part of their professional
serves by some oil companies in 2004 brought the topic under public scrutiny. Confidence in reserves disclosures became a public issue a
amifications of a particular policy? Can history be used to help predict the future? policy? Can history be used to help predict the future? A
the aggregate. Arithmetic summation understates the true value of the resource estimates within a portfolio. Potentially this could result in
part of their professional lives developing estimates of reserves professional lives developing estimates of reserves and production capabil
became a public issue and there were calls from investors and lending institutions for more-reliable reserves estimates. Oil companies hav
help predict the future? As the answers evolve we begin to understand how much still remains to be learned about energy forecasting. T
ntially this could result in deferral of a project or loss of lucrative business and commercial opportunities such as project investment facilit
es and production capabilities along with new methods and techniques for improving these estimates. To understand the confidence levels
mates. Oil companies have responded by revisiting reserves-estimation procedures and SPE American Association of Petroleum Geologis
out energy forecasting. There is a large body of literature about forecasting theory and forecasting techniques of which the References p
project investment facility-sizing decisions or incremental gas supply commitments. Statistically-robust tools that appropriately use expert
and the confidence levels and risks of the estimates a clear and consistent set of reserve classifications must be used. The confidence le
on of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) World Petroleum Council (WPC) and Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE) have launch
 which the References provide only a small sample. But rather than survey the repertoire of econometric techniques including linear prog
appropriately use expert opinion are essential for aggregation of resource estimates. Using two integrated project examples we will demon
e used. The confidence levels and the techniques implemented by the petroleum engineer depend on the quantity and the maturity of the
eers (SPEE) have launched a joint project to train reserves evaluators. A major goal in this initiative is preparation of training modules that r
ues including linear programming multiple regression Box-Jenkins techniques input-output models cross impact analysis and the Delph
examples we will demonstrate methods for: probabilistic aggregation of the resource estimates for multiple fields; and estimating a mea
y and the maturity of the data available. The data quality therefore establishes the classification assigned to the reserve estimates and in
of training modules that represent industry’s “recommended practices. Long before the issue caught the public’s attention how
ct analysis and the Delphi approach this paper focuses on philosophical problems posed by any attempt to forecast the future. At the ou
s; and estimating a measure of dependency between the resource estimates of individual fields. The methods reviewed for probabilistic a
reserve estimates and indicates the confidence one should have in the reserve estimates. Almost all applications of oil and gas reserve
public’s attention however reserves estimation was a challenge for the industry. The challenge stems from many factors tangible and
 cast the future. At the outset note the distinction between two classes of future occurrences: events and trends. Events which cannot be
eviewed for probabilistic aggregation include both Monte-Carlo simulation and analytical methods. We present a new analytical method bas
ns of oil and gas reserve estimates require in the final analysis an economic evaluation that considers the predicted production capacity a
any factors tangible and intangible that enter the estimation process and judgment is an integral part of the process. Uncertainty along w
 Events which cannot be known before they happen include things like storms earthquakes and assassinations. Even the specific outco
ew analytical method based on multivariate skew-normal distributions. These can model a wide range of skewness through a shape param
ted production capacity and the capital and operating cost estimates. The economic analysis is the thermometer used to indicate the hea
ess. Uncertainty along with risk is an endemic problem that must be addressed. Consequently the industry’s record of properly predic
 s. Even the specific outcome of a process (for example which person will be elected president in 1988) is an event that cannot be foretold
s through a shape parameter and are used heavily in financial and actuarial applications. This method will allow a wide range of skewness
used to indicate the health of the reserves owner and will be representative and reliable only if the data reserve estimating procedures a
s record of properly predicting reserves has been mixed. Despite appeals from some quarters there currently is no standardized reserves-e
ent that cannot be foretold. On the other hand trends lend themselves to analysis and thus can be forecast within the constraints of assu
wide range of skewness to be incorporated in the probabilistic aggregation of resource estimates for multiple fields. This paper presents m
estimating procedures and reserve classifications are understood and applied properly. Reserve Classification and Nomenclature The ne
o standardized reserves-estimation procedure. The purpose of this paper is to discuss various issues related to reserves review reserves-e
 in the constraints of assumptions about those events and trends which are external to the analysis. Examples include sales of products l
s. This paper presents methods for evaluating measures of dependency between the resource estimates from a portfolio of fields. In cases
and Nomenclature The need for one universal classification and nomenclature system for petroleum reserves has long been recognized by
serves review reserves-estimation procedures and make suggestions for improvements. Emphasis will be placed on reserves evaluation a
nclude sales of products long-term weather patterns and political and social trends. Although it is impossible to predict who will be elected
portfolio of fields. In cases where the multiple realizations approach is used as a basis for the uncertainty framework for the individual fields
long been recognized by the various technical societies professional organizations governmental agencies professional organizations g
d on reserves evaluation at the preproduction stage in which estimation errors generally have the highest economic effect. The discussed pr
 redict who will be elected president in 1988 it is possible to analyze and forecast the trends which may lead to the predominance of a par
rk for the individual fields tornado diagrams are generated. These describe the dependence of the individual field estimates on reservoir pa
ofessional organizations governmental agencies and the petroleum industry. In spite of the need for a standardization of definitions and co
c effect. The discussed procedures pertain to conventional oil and gas reserves. Specific rules relating to booking reserves for regulatory pu
he predominance of a particular party or philosophy. party or philosophy. Trend forecasting must also be distinguished from path forecasti
estimates on reservoir parameters. When experimental design and response surface methods are used a surrogate model for estimates b
ation of definitions and concepts differences in definitions continue to cloud the absolute meaning of reserve definitions published by tech
reserves for regulatory purposes are outside the scope of this paper. Reserves Definition and Classification Fig. 1 shows how reserves a
ished from path forecasting. Here the distinction is usually one of path forecasting. Here the distinction is usually one of the time horizon in
ate model for estimates based on a response surface will be available. Incorporating the expertise and knowledge of oil and gas profession
initions published by technical societies and regulatory bodies. The societies have established study groups to recommend a classificatio
. 1 shows how reserves are part of the petroleum resource base. Under the SPE/WPC definitions “Reserves are those quantities of pe
 one of the time horizon involved. The inertia of any system tends to keep it in motion along a particular trend even though the specific path
e of oil and gas professionals is a critical step allowing the uncertainties and dependencies to be identified and quantified. These methodol
ecommend a classification system; however a universal system acceptable to all estimators and users has not been agreed upon. A stud
are those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
n though the specific path may be quite irregular and volatile. The trend can be forecasted; the path is unpredictable. Most forecasts are o
antified. These methodologies for probabilistic aggregation and estimating dependencies were developed within the context of the oil indus
een agreed upon. A study group established in 1980 consisting of representatives of oil producing countries recommended a set of defin
rom a given date forward (Petroleum Reserves Definitions 1997). Commerciality implies commitment or expected commitment to develop re
able. Most forecasts are of trends and attempt to define the broad movements that will later be called "history." An example of a trend fore
he context of the oil industry. However their use is not limited to the oil industry. They are general and can be used in any situation where th
commended a set of definitions and classifications. A joint committee of SPE AAPG and API developed a set of definitions and a glossary
commitment to develop reserves within a reasonable time frame. Depending on the degree of uncertainty three main classes of reserves a
 n example of a trend forecast is shown in Fig. 1. (All figures provided by Chevron Corporation Economics Department.) The trend assume
d in any situation where there is a probabilistic aggregation problem.
definitions and a glossary of terms in 1981. These definitions considered consistent with U.S. DOE and Securities and Exchange Comm
main classes of reserves are recognized: proved probable and possible the last-named two collectively called unproved. Proved reserves a
ment.) The trend assumes that real oil prices will increase at a defined rate until they are high enough to stimulate substantial quantities of

es and Exchange Commission (SEC) definitions are presented here along with my comments on their use. Proved Reserves. Proved rese
proved. Proved reserves are those quantities that have reasonable certainty of being recovered indicating a high degree of confidence. Pro
e substantial quantities of synthetics. On any given date however the market price of oil is likely to deviate because of prevailing price of

ed Reserves. Proved reserves of crude oil Proved Reserves. Proved reserves of crude oil condensate natural gas or natural gas liquids a
degree of confidence. Proved reserves may be developed or undeveloped. Probable reserves are more likely than not to be recoverable w
use of prevailing price of oil is likely to deviate because of prevailing market conditions. Although the path will generally follow the trend it w

as or natural gas liquids are estimated quantities as of a specific date which geological and engineering data demonstrate with a reasona
not to be recoverable while possible reserves are less likely to be recoverable than probable reserves. Geological and engineering data fo
erally follow the trend it will be subject to temporary deviations and excursions. The challenge is to determine whether a particular price m

monstrate with a reasonable certainty to be recoverable in the future from known reservoirs under e
al and engineering data form the basis of determination. Proved reserves assume recoverability under current economic conditions operatin