Gravis PA 18 March 7th 2018

Pennsylvania District 18 Polling
Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Executive Summary
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 911 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. The poll was conducted from
March 1st through the 5th and has a margin of error of ±3.3%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using interactive voice
responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics.
3) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump?
Q18: 2016ELECTION Party
Independent Or In
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein Democrat Another Party Republican
Q3: TRUMPOPINION Favorable 4.4% 86.7% 13.7% 2.4% 16.9% 20.4% 35.0% 80.5%
Uncertain 30.0% 6.1% 42.2% 5.4% 13.4% 7.0% 13.4% 7.0%
Unfavorable 65.5% 7.3% 44.1% 92.1% 69.7% 72.6% 51.6% 12.6%
Race Age group Gender
African-
American Asian Hispanic Other White/Caucasian 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 Or Older Female Male
Q3: TRUMPOPINION Favorable 31.3% 15.9% 53.7% 59.8% 50.1% 33.3% 43.2% 58.2% 53.0% 43.4% 55.2%
Uncertain 1.7% 0.0% 18.9% 15.1% 8.4% 3.6% 15.0% 6.7% 4.7% 10.0% 6.5%
Unfavorable 67.0% 84.1% 27.4% 25.1% 41.5% 63.1% 41.9% 35.1% 42.4% 46.7% 38.4%
4) Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?
Independent Or In
Q4: TRUMPAPPROVAL Approve 5.4% 86.6% 11.3% 1.5% 16.9% 19.8% 37.4% 79.0%
Disapprove 58.3% 7.3% 46.4% 91.4% 59.4% 72.3% 48.9% 12.4%
Uncertain 36.3% 6.1% 42.2% 7.0% 23.7% 7.9% 13.7% 8.5%
African-
Q4: TRUMPAPPROVAL Approve 25.1% 15.9% 45.8% 65.2% 49.8% 29.9% 44.7% 57.6% 52.2% 42.5% 55.3%
Disapprove 73.2% 84.1% 40.6% 26.4% 40.5% 57.7% 42.0% 35.2% 42.1% 45.9% 37.7%
Uncertain 1.7% 0.0% 13.7% 8.4% 9.6% 12.5% 13.3% 7.2% 5.7% 11.6% 7.0%
5) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Wolf’s job performance?
Independent Or In
Q5: WOLFAPPROVAL Approve 22.7% 15.5% 39.9% 61.0% 47.0% 54.0% 38.5% 12.8%
Disapprove 38.2% 70.3% 31.2% 13.5% 42.6% 27.8% 37.7% 67.4%
Uncertain 39.1% 14.2% 28.9% 25.5% 10.3% 18.2% 23.8% 19.8%
African-
Q5: WOLFAPPROVAL Approve 44.2% 6.0% 19.8% 20.3% 33.8% 32.7% 36.1% 29.9% 34.3% 34.8% 31.5%
Disapprove 42.6% 29.9% 53.6% 64.1% 47.0% 31.1% 42.8% 55.2% 49.0% 37.6% 56.3%
Uncertain 13.2% 64.1% 26.6% 15.6% 19.2% 36.2% 21.2% 14.9% 16.7% 27.5% 12.1%
6) Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Casey’s job performance?
Independent Or In
Q6: CASEYAPPROVAL Approve 20.1% 16.4% 36.7% 58.9% 51.3% 54.6% 34.4% 13.2%
Disapprove 32.5% 56.2% 39.5% 11.8% 44.0% 20.0% 35.6% 55.5%
Uncertain 47.4% 27.4% 23.9% 29.3% 4.6% 25.4% 30.0% 31.3%
African-
Q6: CASEYAPPROVAL Approve 37.4% 6.0% 20.0% 25.2% 33.4% 35.7% 30.6% 30.9% 36.1% 30.4% 35.2%
Disapprove 34.8% 39.4% 53.3% 47.4% 38.2% 25.3% 32.8% 45.2% 43.1% 33.4% 43.6%
Uncertain 27.7% 54.6% 26.6% 27.4% 28.4% 39.0% 36.6% 23.9% 20.8% 36.3% 21.2%
7) If the special election for your U.S. House of Representatives district were held today and the candidates were Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor
Lamb, who would you vote for?
Independent Or In
Q7: ELECTIONTODAY Conor Lamb 31.3% 13.1% 64.2% 86.6% 52.3% 74.8% 46.3% 12.3%
Rick Saccone 22.3% 76.2% 18.6% 4.0% 11.1% 16.0% 26.6% 78.6%
Uncertain 46.4% 10.7% 17.2% 9.4% 36.6% 9.1% 27.1% 9.1%
African-
Q7: ELECTIONTODAY Conor Lamb 40.1% 70.1% 28.5% 23.6% 42.0% 53.3% 43.3% 34.6% 45.0% 44.4% 40.0%
Rick Saccone 28.3% 15.9% 42.4% 68.9% 45.8% 17.5% 40.0% 55.1% 52.6% 41.6% 48.6%
Uncertain 31.6% 13.9% 29.1% 7.5% 12.2% 29.2% 16.8% 10.3% 2.4% 14.0% 11.4%
8) Could you support a candidate who has been accused of sexual misconduct?
Independent Or In
Q8: SEXUALMISCONDUCT No 72.7% 63.8% 74.7% 92.1% 85.8% 86.6% 75.5% 64.7%
Yes 27.3% 36.2% 25.3% 7.9% 14.2% 13.4% 24.5% 35.3%
African-
Q8: SEXUALMISCONDUCT No 84.8% 84.1% 65.2% 71.5% 74.7% 80.6% 75.0% 68.3% 80.4% 80.1% 69.6%
Yes 15.2% 15.9% 34.8% 28.5% 25.3% 19.4% 25.0% 31.7% 19.6% 19.9% 30.4%
9) Do you currently approve or disapprove of the Tax Reform Bill that was signed into law by President Trump?
Independent Or In
Q9: TEXREFORMBILL Approve 9.7% 80.8% 20.7% 7.1% 16.9% 19.5% 32.1% 80.1%
Disapprove 57.1% 6.1% 26.1% 79.2% 72.8% 65.8% 42.9% 8.0%
Uncertain 33.2% 13.2% 53.2% 13.6% 10.3% 14.7% 25.0% 11.9%
African-
Q9: TEXREFORMBILL Approve 28.1% 15.9% 48.8% 61.6% 49.0% 23.5% 45.3% 58.3% 51.1% 42.7% 53.7%
Disapprove 62.7% 84.1% 35.4% 34.8% 34.8% 51.4% 37.1% 30.5% 35.2% 41.5% 31.0%
Uncertain 9.2% 0.0% 15.9% 3.6% 16.1% 25.1% 17.6% 11.3% 13.6% 15.8% 15.3%
10) Do you support or oppose transgender children being able to use state and federal funds through CHIP for gender reassignment surgery and other services
related to their gender identity?
Independent Or In
Q10: Oppose 33.9% 78.5% 56.7% 29.1% 37.3% 36.2% 57.6% 75.3%
TRANSGENDERCHILDREN Support 37.0% 7.9% 34.3% 46.7% 36.2% 40.3% 23.9% 11.1%
Uncertain 29.1% 13.6% 9.1% 24.2% 26.5% 23.5% 18.5% 13.7%
African-
Q10: Oppose 43.3% 84.4% 53.4% 71.3% 56.9% 56.6% 49.8% 63.5% 58.6% 50.7% 64.1%
TRANSGENDERCHILDREN Support 44.3% 0.0% 26.7% 20.0% 24.6% 35.5% 22.6% 22.6% 23.3% 29.1% 19.6%
Uncertain 12.4% 15.6% 19.8% 8.6% 18.6% 7.9% 27.6% 13.9% 18.1% 20.2% 16.3%
11) Do you support or oppose the legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States?
Independent Or In
Q11: SAMESEXMARRIAGE Oppose 18.6% 54.3% 24.8% 10.3% 14.2% 21.6% 25.0% 51.9%
Support 77.9% 31.9% 68.2% 80.7% 85.8% 70.4% 64.0% 34.1%
Uncertain 3.6% 13.8% 7.0% 8.9% 0.0% 8.0% 11.0% 14.0%
African-
Q11: Oppose 16.8% 0.0% 40.8% 32.9% 36.4% 16.5% 18.6% 45.8% 51.7% 29.2% 41.6%
SAMESEXMARRIAGE Support 76.8% 65.6% 49.4% 42.6% 53.0% 68.5% 70.4% 45.5% 35.8% 59.3% 47.5%
Uncertain 6.4% 34.4% 9.8% 24.5% 10.6% 15.0% 10.9% 8.7% 12.5% 11.4% 10.8%
12) Do you think that transgender individuals should be banned from using the bathroom of the gender they identify as?
Independent Or
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein Democrat In Another Party Republican
Q12: Should Be Banned 27.9% 63.3% 21.2% 14.2% 0.7% 23.3% 38.5% 59.5%
TRANSGENDERBATHROOM Should Not Be Banned 40.6% 15.1% 65.8% 67.4% 37.1% 58.0% 35.0% 19.6%
Uncertain 31.5% 21.6% 13.1% 18.3% 62.2% 18.6% 26.6% 20.9%
African-
Q12: Should Be Banned 36.1% 64.3% 35.5% 52.0% 41.5% 43.2% 29.3% 48.9% 47.4% 35.2% 48.9%
TRANSGENDERBATHROOM Should Not Be
37.5% 35.7% 40.9% 29.2% 37.0% 36.5% 45.0% 35.8% 28.8% 42.2% 31.4%
Banned
Uncertain 26.4% 0.0% 23.6% 18.7% 21.5% 20.3% 25.7% 15.3% 23.9% 22.6% 19.7%
13) Do you think that transgender individuals should be banned from using the locker room of the gender they identify as?
Independent Or
Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein Democrat In Another Party Republican
Q13: Should Be Banned 34.1% 67.8% 21.2% 17.1% 0.7% 26.6% 42.5% 63.7%
TRANSGENDERLOCKERROOM Should Not Be Banned 48.3% 13.0% 64.9% 61.5% 37.1% 53.3% 37.0% 16.1%
Uncertain 17.7% 19.2% 14.0% 21.4% 62.2% 20.1% 20.5% 20.2%
African- 65 Or
American Asian Hispanic Other White/Caucasian 18-29 30-49 50-64 Older Female Male
Q13: Should Be Banned 47.5% 50.4% 50.6% 62.5% 45.4% 42.0% 35.2% 51.9% 52.5% 39.5% 52.3%
TRANSGENDERLOCKERROOM Should Not Be
30.2% 40.1% 31.5% 27.7% 34.1% 41.9% 40.8% 32.1% 24.4% 38.8% 29.1%
Banned
Uncertain 22.3% 9.6% 17.9% 9.9% 20.5% 16.1% 24.1% 16.0% 23.1% 21.7% 18.6%
14) Do you think that gay conversion therapy aimed at changing a person’s sexual orientation should be legal or illegal for minors in Pennsylvania?
Independent Or In
Q14: Illegal 52.3% 67.9% 70.9% 71.6% 56.5% 69.9% 59.5% 71.1%
GAYCONVERSIONTHERAPY Legal 14.6% 10.9% 2.3% 12.1% 10.3% 11.6% 14.6% 9.5%
Uncertain 33.1% 21.1% 26.8% 16.3% 33.1% 18.5% 25.9% 19.4%
African-
Q14: Illegal 51.6% 86.1% 54.3% 54.8% 68.6% 63.5% 69.3% 68.3% 69.7% 67.3% 69.4%
GAYCONVERSIONTHERAPY Legal 28.8% 13.9% 25.4% 25.7% 10.6% 17.7% 9.8% 11.8% 9.1% 10.3% 12.3%
Uncertain 19.6% 0.0% 20.3% 19.5% 20.8% 18.8% 20.9% 20.0% 21.2% 22.4% 18.3%
15) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Pennsylvania?
Independent Or In
Q15: OBTAINABORTION Oppose 40.4% 39.6% 59.7% 50.9% 31.7% 49.2% 44.0% 40.0%
Support 15.7% 39.4% 23.0% 29.4% 25.7% 33.7% 23.3% 39.0%
Uncertain 43.9% 21.0% 17.3% 19.7% 42.6% 17.1% 32.7% 21.0%
African-
Q15: OBTAINABORTION Oppose 50.0% 15.6% 41.3% 51.1% 44.6% 39.5% 47.1% 42.9% 44.8% 46.1% 42.2%
Support 29.9% 15.9% 28.4% 39.1% 34.4% 29.8% 33.9% 35.7% 33.6% 34.0% 33.8%
Uncertain 20.1% 68.5% 30.4% 9.8% 21.0% 30.7% 19.0% 21.4% 21.6% 19.9% 24.0%
16) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion after a pregnancy has lasted for 20 weeks in Pennsylvania?
Independent Or In
Q16: Oppose 52.1% 45.2% 42.7% 47.9% 53.0% 48.2% 44.0% 46.3%
OBTAINABORTION20WEEKS Support 17.4% 39.1% 28.4% 25.3% 22.1% 27.4% 23.6% 41.0%
Uncertain 30.5% 15.7% 28.9% 26.8% 24.9% 24.4% 32.4% 12.7%
African-
Q16: Oppose 68.0% 25.5% 64.6% 52.6% 46.3% 44.8% 45.6% 43.7% 52.3% 51.8% 41.1%
OBTAINABORTION20WEEKS Support 13.7% 19.9% 29.1% 39.1% 33.1% 24.6% 32.1% 37.0% 31.3% 29.9% 35.1%
Uncertain 18.3% 54.6% 6.3% 8.3% 20.6% 30.6% 22.3% 19.3% 16.5% 18.3% 23.8%
17) Do you support or oppose legalizing recreational marijuana in Pennsylvania?
Independent Or In
Q17: MARIJUANA Oppose 28.6% 52.3% 15.9% 27.7% 0.7% 29.4% 26.4% 56.8%
Support 59.1% 40.8% 70.7% 61.1% 99.3% 61.4% 62.0% 35.9%
Uncertain 12.2% 6.9% 13.4% 11.2% 0.0% 9.2% 11.6% 7.3%
African-
Q17: MARIJUANA Oppose 15.3% 68.5% 35.8% 50.9% 40.5% 14.9% 31.1% 45.6% 58.9% 41.9% 39.3%
Support 81.7% 31.5% 57.4% 32.3% 50.4% 75.7% 61.3% 44.4% 32.4% 48.1% 53.1%
Uncertain 3.0% 0.0% 6.8% 16.9% 9.1% 9.3% 7.6% 10.0% 8.7% 10.0% 7.6%
18) In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for?
Independent Or In
Q18: 2016ELECTION Didn't vote 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 15.8% 3.5%
Donald Trump 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 48.9% 86.9%
Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 5.8% 2.3%
Hillary Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 73.7% 26.9% 7.3%
Jill Stein 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.5% 2.5% 0.0%
African-
Q18: 2016ELECTION Didn't vote 4.7% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% 5.7% 11.8% 7.9% 4.9% 0.6% 5.5% 5.7%
Donald Trump 30.1% 15.9% 35.3% 65.7% 56.2% 43.3% 51.5% 60.9% 56.7% 45.7% 64.2%
Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 0.9% 2.8% 2.3% 5.0% 2.6% 0.6% 3.8% 1.8%
Hillary Clinton 54.6% 84.1% 22.1% 32.5% 34.5% 40.2% 34.4% 30.3% 42.1% 44.1% 27.1%
Jill Stein 10.5% 0.0% 6.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% 1.2%
The following questions are for demographic purposes:
1) Are you registered to vote in Pennsylvania?
2) How likely are you to vote in the PA-18 Congressional Special Election?
19) What is your party affiliation?

20) What is your political ideology?
21) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?
22) What race do you identify yourself as?

23) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
24) What is the highest level of education you have completed?
25) How old are you?

26) What is your gender?

Gravis PA 18 March 7th 2018

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Gravis PA 18 March 7th 2018

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Pennsylvania District 18 Polling

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 30.0% 6.1% 42.2% 5.4% 13.4% 7.0% 13.4% 7.0%

Unfavorable 65.5% 7.3% 44.1% 92.1% 69.7% 72.6% 51.6% 12.6%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 58.3% 7.3% 46.4% 91.4% 59.4% 72.3% 48.9% 12.4%

Uncertain 36.3% 6.1% 42.2% 7.0% 23.7% 7.9% 13.7% 8.5%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 38.2% 70.3% 31.2% 13.5% 42.6% 27.8% 37.7% 67.4%

Uncertain 39.1% 14.2% 28.9% 25.5% 10.3% 18.2% 23.8% 19.8%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 32.5% 56.2% 39.5% 11.8% 44.0% 20.0% 35.6% 55.5%

Uncertain 47.4% 27.4% 23.9% 29.3% 4.6% 25.4% 30.0% 31.3%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 46.4% 10.7% 17.2% 9.4% 36.6% 9.1% 27.1% 9.1%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Yes 27.3% 36.2% 25.3% 7.9% 14.2% 13.4% 24.5% 35.3%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Disapprove 57.1% 6.1% 26.1% 79.2% 72.8% 65.8% 42.9% 8.0%

Uncertain 33.2% 13.2% 53.2% 13.6% 10.3% 14.7% 25.0% 11.9%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 29.1% 13.6% 9.1% 24.2% 26.5% 23.5% 18.5% 13.7%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Support 77.9% 31.9% 68.2% 80.7% 85.8% 70.4% 64.0% 34.1%

Uncertain 3.6% 13.8% 7.0% 8.9% 0.0% 8.0% 11.0% 14.0%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 31.5% 21.6% 13.1% 18.3% 62.2% 18.6% 26.6% 20.9%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 17.7% 19.2% 14.0% 21.4% 62.2% 20.1% 20.5% 20.2%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 33.1% 21.1% 26.8% 16.3% 33.1% 18.5% 25.9% 19.4%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Support 15.7% 39.4% 23.0% 29.4% 25.7% 33.7% 23.3% 39.0%

Uncertain 43.9% 21.0% 17.3% 19.7% 42.6% 17.1% 32.7% 21.0%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Uncertain 30.5% 15.7% 28.9% 26.8% 24.9% 24.4% 32.4% 12.7%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Support 59.1% 40.8% 70.7% 61.1% 99.3% 61.4% 62.0% 35.9%

Uncertain 12.2% 6.9% 13.4% 11.2% 0.0% 9.2% 11.6% 7.3%

Race Age group Gender

Q18: 2016ELECTION Party

Race Age group Gender

19) What is your party affiliation?

22) What race do you identify yourself as?

24) What is the highest level of education you have completed?

25) How old are you?

You might also like