March 5, 2018

Media Contact: Nikolas Emack-Bazelais
emersonpoll@emerson.edu
617-824-3491

Emerson College ePoll: Statistical Dead Heat in PA 18th Congressional Special Election.
Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone 48% to 45%, 10 days out from
election

A new Emerson College poll finds Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Congressional election
with Conor Lamb at 48% and Republican Rick Saccone at 45%, 7% of likely voters are
undecided. The data was collected between March 1-3 and used an online and landline sample of
474 likely voters with a CI of +/- 4.8 percentage points. Full podcast listen here
http://bit.ly/2FiLxZG.

This election has garnered a lot of voting excitement with 56% saying they are very excited to
vote, and 7% not excited at all. It’s voter excitement that might put Lamb over the top. When
asked about level of excitement among voters about the election, 63% of Lamb voters reported
being very excited compared to 53% of Saccone voters. Lamb voters also are paying more
attention to the race, with 47% reported paying a lot of attention, compared to 42% of Saccone
voters.

Lamb has a positive image in the district, with 48% saying they have a favorable opinion and a
33% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion. Saccone is not as
popular with a 44% favorable and a 40% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him
but had no opinion.

Lamb leads 57% to 40% in Allegheny County, which is expected to account for about 42% of
the vote. Saccone leads in Westmoreland County 51% to 42%, a county that comprises about
33% of the vote. Saccone leads in Washington County 46% to 41%, which make up about 22%
of the vote.

Trump won the district 58% to 39% in 2016, and Mitt Romney fared equally well in 2012 with
58% of the vote to 41% for President Obama. Trump currently has a 47% job approval in the
district with 43% disapproving, despite 46% of the district being registered Democrat. Similarly,
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi only has a 20% approval rate, with 57% disapproving.

When it comes to issues, 47% said that they are less likely to vote for someone running on an
impeach Trump platform, compared to 38% saying they are more likely to vote based on that
issue, and 10% claiming it makes no difference. Arming teachers in classrooms has become a hot
topic with 48% opposing the idea and 40% supporting it.

This will be the last election for this configuration, as new district maps will be implemented for
the 2018 primary in May. Voters were asked about the recently redrawn Congressional district
map and based on what they knew, 37% said it favored Democrats and 11% said it favored
Republicans. 31% thought it was fair to both parties.
Methodology:
The PA USC 18th district Emerson College epoll was conducted March 1-3, 2018 under the
Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only registered voters,
n=474, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 4.8 percentage points. The
data was weighted by party affiliation, gender and county. Data was collected using both an
Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by
Survey Sampling International (SSI). Full methodology available at theecps.com

Emerson College Polling Weekly podcast is available on iTunes, Stitcher and the CLNS Media
Mobile App. Visit our website at http://www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com.
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter @EmersonPolling.
Survey Instrument

1. To start, can you please tell me your gender?
Press 1 for male
Press 2 for female

2. Are you currently registered to vote with a political party?
Press 1 for Democrat
Press 2 for Republican
Press 3 for independent or other
Press 4 if you are not registered to vote

3. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming special election for Congress?
Press 1 if you are very likely to vote
Press 2 if you are somewhat likely to vote
Press 3 if you are 50-50
Press 4 if you are not likely to vote

4. If the special election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were
Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb, for whom would you vote or lean
towards voting?
Press 1 for Conor Lamb
Press 2 for Rick Saccone
Press 3 if you are unsure

5. How excited are you to vote in the upcoming special election for Congress?
Press 1 for very excited
Press 2 for somewhat excited
Press 3 for not too excited
Press 4 for not at all excited

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Press 1 for approve
Press 2 for disapprove
Press 3 for neutral or no opinion
Press 4 if you haven’t heard of this person

8. And what about the job Nancy Pelosi is doing as House Democratic leader?
Press 1 for approve
Press 2 for disapprove
Press 3 for neutral or no opinion
Press 4 if you haven’t heard of this person
9. Would you say that your opinion of Rick Saccone is generally favorable or generally
unfavorable?
Press 1 for favorable
Press 2 for unfavorable
Press 3 for neutral or no opinion
Press 4 if you haven’t heard of this person

10. And would you say that your opinion of Conor Lamb is generally favorable or
generally unfavorable?
Press 1 for favorable
Press 2 for unfavorable
Press 3 for neutral or no opinion
Press 4 if you haven’t heard of this person

11. How much attention have you been paying to the upcoming special election for
Congress?
Press 1 if you have not been paying attention
Press 2 if you have been paying a little bit of attention
Press 3 if you have been paying a moderate amount of attention
Press 4 if you have been paying a lot of attention

12. If a candidate for Congress ran on a platform to impeach Donald Trump, would you
be more or less likely to vote for them?
Press 1 for more likely
Press 2 for less likely
Press 3 if it would make no difference
Press 4 if you are unsure

13. Pennsylvania recently redrew their Congressional district map. Based on what you
have heard, do you think this new map favors Democrats, favors Republicans, or is it
fair to both parties?
Press 1 for favors Republicans
Press 2 for favors Democrats
Press 3 for fair to both parties
Press 4 if you are unsure
Press 5 if you haven’t heard about this

14. After the recent school shooting in Florida, one solution that has been proposed is to
arm teachers in public schools to protect students. Would you support or oppose this?
Press 1 for support
Press 2 for oppose
Press 3 if you have no opinion
Press 4 if you are unsure
15. For statistical purposes only, can you please tell me your age range?
Press 1 for 18-34 years
Press 2 for 35-54 years
Press 3 for 55-74 years
Press 4 for 75 or more years

16. What is your ethnicity?
Press 1 for white
Press 2 for non-white
Press 3 for multiple races

17. What is the highest level of education you have attained?
Press 1 for high school or less
Press 2 for some college
Press 3 for college graduate
Press 4 for postgrad or higher

18. In which county do you currently live? (Only for ONLINE)
Press 1 for Allegheny County
Press 2 for Greene County
Press 3 for Washington County
Press 4 for Westmoreland County