Florida Statewide Poll:


U.S. Senate Race Test Ballot



Prepared by: Steven J. Vancore

Kari Headings

March 11, 2018 


Methodology
Using a national calling center, Clearview Research conducted live operator interviews with a sample of 750
likely 2018 general election voters. The definition of “likely general election voter” is, “any registered voter who
either voted in both the 2014 and 2016 general elections, or registered after the 2014 general election and
voted in the 2016 general election”.  The purpose of selecting this audience is to ensure we spoke only to
registered voters who had some history of voting in an election similar to the upcoming 2018 general election.
The survey was conducted from Thursday, March 1st, through Wednesday, March 7th during evening hours.
The composition of respondents took into account current registration and previous voter turnout (see below) in
an attempt to make the final sample “look like” the state’s likely 2018 general election voting population. As
such, the total sample was balanced by gender, race, region, party, and age in order for our distribution to be
consistent and similar to the likely voting population. In order to better reach our targets and maintain a
representative population, 20% of calls were completed on cell phones.

Most Recent Election, Last Like Election, Poll 


Presidential (TO: 75% ) Gubernatorial (TO: 51% ) Targets
2018
Current Registration 2016 General Election 2014 General Election
Estimate
Gender Percentage Gender Percentage Gender Percentage Gender

Male 46.3% Male 44.8% Male 46.1% 46%

Female 53.7% Female 55.2% Female 53.9% 54%
Total 100.0% Total 100.0% Total 100.0% 100%

Race Percentage Race Percentage Race Percentage Race

White 64.8% White 67.5% White 74.0% 72%

AA 12.8% AA 12.0% AA 11.9% 12%
Hispanic 15.6% Hispanic 14.5% Hispanic 9.8% 11%
Other 6.8% Other 6.0% Other 4.3% 5%
Total 100.0% Total 100.0% Total 100.0% 100%

Region Percentage Region Percentage Region Percentage Region

DA-BR 19.5% DA-BR 19.4% DA-BR 17.1% 18%

WPB 10.4% WPB 10.4% WPB 10.5% 10%
SW FL 6.3% SW FL 6.5% SW FL 6.7% 7%
W Cen FL 24.4% W Cen FL 24.3% SW FL 25.6% 25%
E Cen FL 20.6% E Cen FL 20.8% E Cen FL 21.0% 21%
N FL 18.8% N FL 18.7% N FL 19.0% 19%
Total 100.0% Total 100.0% Total 106.7% 100%

Statewide Poll — 3/1-3/7 2018

Clearview Polling and Research, LLC 906 Thomasville Road, Tallahassee, Florida 32303 T 850.681.8530 http://clearview-research.com
2
 Most Recent Election, Last Like Election, Poll 

Presidential (TO: 75% ) Gubernatorial (TO: 51% ) Targets
2018
Current Registration 2016 General Election 2014 General Election
Estimate
Party Percentage Party Percentage Party Percentage Party

Democrat 37.3% Democrat 38.1% Democrat 38.2% 39%

Republican 35.3% Republican 38.7% Republican 42.3% 41%
Other 27.4% Other 23.2% Other 19.5% 20%
Total 100.0% Total 100.0% Total 100.0% 100%

Age Percentage Age Percentage Age Percentage Age

18-34 23.9% 18-34 18.6% 18-34 12.2% 13%

35-49 21.5% 35-49 21.2% 35-49 18.9% 19%
50-64 26.8% 50-64 29.5% 50-64 32.3% 32%
65+ 27.7% 65+ 30.7% 65+ 36.7% 36%
Total 100.0% Total 100.0% Total 100.0% 100%

Based on the above, the sample will be both random and representative and yield a general response set with a
margin of error of ±3.58 at the 95% confidence level.

Statewide Poll — 3/1-3/7 2018

Clearview Polling and Research, LLC 906 Thomasville Road, Tallahassee, Florida 32303 T 850.681.8530 http://clearview-research.com
3
U.S. Senate (Likely) General
Election Test Ballot
We tested the likely general election test ballot between current incumbent U.S. Senator, Bill Nelson versus
(likely) candidate, Governor Rick Scott.
If the 2018 general election for the U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for if the
candidates were, Republican Rick Scott or Democrat Bill Nelson?
Republican Rick Scott 43.3%
Democrat Bill Nelson 41.3%
Unsure/Undecided 15.3%
Steven J. Vancore, President of Clearview Research offered the following comments related to these findings:
• Governor Scott has a slight lead which is driven by two factors, first he is doing slightly better than Senator
Nelson among NPA voters (37% to 34%) and we are estimating a +2-point GOP turnout. Both candidates
draw equally (78% each) from their own parties and Scott pulls 11% of Democrats while Nelson pulls 10%
of Republicans.
• A few recent polls released to the media have shown samples that seem to anticipate more Democrats
voting than Republicans. While that could possibly be the case, we see little evidence for it at this time.
We based our turnout model (Democrats at 39%, Republican at 41% and NPA/Others at 20%) on the
following factors:
• Republicans out-paced Democrats in the most recent off-year election (2014) by +4 points.
• For the first time in modern history, Republicans also (and unexpectedly) out-paced Democrats in
the recent Presidential election by slightly more than half a point.
• Since the 2016 election, and despite popular misconceptions, net Republican voter registration in
Florida has slightly out-paced net Democratic registration.
• Under normal circumstances, we would have gone with a +4 GOP turnout model, but given recent
election results and turnout margins as well as higher enthusiasm among Democrats (as
measured in other polls) plus the natural tendency for mid-term elections to favor the party not in
the White House, we cut the +4 GOP margin in half and settled on a +2 GOP model.
• The poll was distributed across gender, geography, age and ethnic/racial lines based on targets
pulled from the last mid-term General election.

Statewide Poll — 3/1-3/7 2018

Clearview Polling and Research, LLC 906 Thomasville Road, Tallahassee, Florida 32303 T 850.681.8530 http://clearview-research.com
4
• Other observations include:
• While it is still very early to make any predictions, it is clear that this off-year election could come
down to two simple factors: turnout and gaining margins among NPA voters. Both candidates are
extremely well known and have the strong support of their parties, so turnout will be vital and in
the event turnout is even, it will come down to NPA or “Independent” voters who, right now,
slightly favor the Governor.
• Nelson’s margin is highest (+7 points) among the youngest voters, while Scott holds a steady
lead among all age categories 35 and older.
• No surprise, Scott does best among white (50% - 36%) and Cuban Hispanic (48% - 41%)
respondents, while Nelson leads by a wide margin (72% - 12%) among Black voters and among
non-Cuban Hispanics (40% - 32%.)

Statewide Poll — 3/1-3/7 2018

Clearview Polling and Research, LLC 906 Thomasville Road, Tallahassee, Florida 32303 T 850.681.8530 http://clearview-research.com
5