Professional Documents
Culture Documents
A recent survey among likely special election voters in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District
shows that Republican State Senator Debbie Lesko is vulnerable to defeat. While this is a
difficult district for Democrats to win, the Republicans have nominated a flawed candidate
at a time when likely voters are repulsed by Congress and ready for change. Democratic
nominee, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, is well positioned to take advantage of Democratic momentum
and Lesko’s vulnerabilities. With partner investment, this race is winnable.
• Democrats are as motivated as Republicans to vote. This has been the trend since
Donald Trump was inaugurated, and it continues today. Fifty-one percent of all
voters rate themselves a “10” on a 0-10 motivation scale. While 51% of registered
Republicans rate themselves a “10,” the same is true for 52% of registered
Democrats. Among all Tipirneni voters, 55% rate themselves a “10” compared to
54% of Lesko’s supporters.
• Lesko underperforms partisanship and takes less than a majority in the initial
vote. Fifty-one percent of voters are registered Republicans, but Lesko takes only
48% in the initial trial heat. Tipirneni outperforms partisanship, taking 34% in the
initial vote. If Tipirneni is to win this race, she must earn double-digit support from
Republicans, and right now, 23% of registered Republicans are voting for Tipirneni
or are undecided.
By the end of the survey, once Tipirneni defines herself and defines Lesko, the race
becomes a tie within the margin of error.
• This was not a benign sample for Democrats. Republicans comprise 51% of the
likely electorate, and 59% of voters view President Trump favorably. The generic
Republican takes 50% of the initial vote. Given these parameters, Lesko’s
weaknesses are even more glaring.
In summary, this is a challenging district for a Democrat to win, but the Republicans have
nominated a vulnerable candidate. Voters in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District dislike the
Republicans in Congress and disapprove of Lesko’s job performance. Even before voters
hear that her campaign is under federal investigation, Lesko takes less than majority
support. Dr. Hiral Tipirneni’s call for change is a strong contrast to Lesko’s swamp-like
tactics. This can become a very competitive race.
###
i Methodology: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, and it was conducted by
telephone using professional interviewers March 3- 6, 2018. The survey reached a total of 400 likely April 2018
special election voters in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Telephone numbers for the sample were generated
from a list of registered voters in Arizona. The data were weighted slightly by gender, age, region, party
registration, education, support score, and turnout score. Both cell phones and landlines were called.
ii https://www.abc15.com/news/state/gop-primary-winner-debbie-lesko-faces-2nd-federal-election-law-
complaint