Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Capacity Requirements
A User Guide
Version 1.1
July 2002
EUROCONTROL
Capacity Enhancement Function
Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction..............................................................................................................2
1. Purpose and Structure of the Document............................................................3
2. Capacity Definitions and Assessments..............................................................4
2.1 Different notions of capacity ..............................................................................4
2.1.2 Sector Capacity ..........................................................................................4
2.1.3 Declared Sector Capacity ...........................................................................4
2.1.4 ACC Capacity .............................................................................................4
2.2 ACC Capacity Indicators ...................................................................................4
2.2.1 Nominal ACC Capacity ...............................................................................5
2.2.2 Observed ACC capacity..............................................................................8
3. Optimum Capacity .............................................................................................10
3.1 Capacity-Delay-Demand interaction................................................................10
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
This document supersedes “ATC Capacity Targets Setting, a user guide” version 1.0.
This second version reflects changes in terminology and progress in the
development of the nominal ACC capacity indicators. Annex 2 (definitions) has been
added and Annex 4 (PACT, previously Annex 3) has been updated. Other changes
are editorial.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
INTRODUCTION
The evolution and steady increase in air traffic delays in recent years has
demonstrated the need to improve medium-term capacity planning at the level of the
European, gate-to-gate1, Air Traffic Management (ATM) Network.
Traffic statistics
Current
Delay statistics
traffic analysis
ACC capacity
assessment
Economic forecast
User demand Overall growth rates
Traffic forecast
Airport plans ACC demand
forecast
Route network plan
Assessing ACC
Policy on capacity Proposed ACC
delay/capacity requirements capacity profiles
targets
Capacity plans
Capacity planning
Impact assessment
Implementation
operations
1
Gate-to-gate includes all the phases of a flight, i.e. the airborne phase, and also parking, taxiing, take-off and
landing phases.
2
As part of the Capacity Enhancement Function, a Capacity Enhancement Service has been created within the
EATMP to provide a single point of co-ordination for (i) all Agency actions aiming at the timely delivery of more
ATM capacity to meet air traffic demand in Europe in the medium to long term, (ii) ensuring the cohesion between
the short-term optimised use of capacity and medium/long term capacity enhancements activities (iii) obtaining
commitment from stakeholders for capacity enhancement and monitor achievement
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Purpose
It is intended primarily for managers responsible for planning the measures required
to meet those requirements, and for all staff involved in the actual delivery of ATC
capacity increase, both at national level and within the EUROCONTROL Agency.
This edition reflects the current status of development of the methodology and tools
which have evolved over several years of experience with performance driven
planning.
More details on models and tools used in assessing requirements are available in the
annexes for the more technically oriented reader.
Structure
The first part describes how capacity, delay and demand interact with each
other, and how an optimum capacity can be calculated.
- Section 2 defines capacity and how it is assessed.
- Section 3 features the relationships between capacity, delay and demand,
and describes how the optimum capacity can be determined.
The second part takes into account the future demand, and derives the
corresponding capacity requirements.
- Section 4 describes how future air traffic demand is forecast.
- Section 5 explains the process, parameters and principles used to
generate capacity requirements.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
Capacity can be determined and measured in different ways and at different levels.
An Area Control Centre (ACC) comprises a number of individual sectors, and each
sector has a certain capacity.
ACC sector capacity is defined in terms of the number of flights which may enter a
sector per hour over a period of time (3 hours), without causing excessive work load
for the sector control team, and therefore without impeding safety. Capacity thus
defined is not a fixed value; it varies depending on traffic patterns, technical
environment and individual controller performance.
The declared sector capacity is the maximum sector entry rate (number of
flights/hour), assessed by the Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), and declared
to the Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU), so that the sector can be protected
from overload.
ACC capacity can be defined as the regular hourly traffic that can enter the
ACC without generating excessive workload of the control team in any one of
the sectors. This value is calculated by treating the whole ACC as if it were one
sector.
Two basic methods are used to calculate ACC hourly capacity indicators. The first
one is based on the declared capacity of each of the sectors of the ACC and
assesses the “nominal” capacity. The other method measures demand against the
actual delay generated by the ACC, is the “observed” capacity.
3
Essentially, ATFM delays are caused by several factors, like ATC capacity, airport capacity or weather conditions ;
but lack of ATC capacity accounts for 70% of those ATFM delays.
4
Whilst ACC airspace volume is more stable than that of individual sectors, there are occasions when control of
airspace is transferred between ACCs, and this needs to be taken into account when comparing capacity values.
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The nominal ACC capacity is computed from the declared capacities of the
individual sectors within the ACC.
As illustrated in the following example, the FACET (Fast ACC Capacity Evaluation
Tool) simulation homogeneously increases the traffic volume from its current level
until one of the sectors is saturated (meaning the traffic in this sector has reached the
sector declared capacity). At this point, the traffic flow throughout the whole ACC is
the maximum which can be handled without causing ATFM delays (assuming the
current traffic pattern); it is considered to be the Nominal Capacity with zero delay.
10 flights/hr 10+20%=12
S1 S1
S3 S3
S2 S2
For ACCs with a capacity margin (i.e. not generating delays), the FACET
(zero delay) nominal capacity indicator is the baseline used to
assess capacity requirements.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
In the previous example, the nominal ACC capacity (zero delay) was calculated as
the throughput at the point when the first sector became saturated. However, an
ACC with one sector operating at capacity can continue to accept more traffic in the
remaining sectors, in theory until every sector is saturated.
To reflect this, the CFMU also calculates a ‘saturated’ capacity. This measures ACC
capacity at the point where every sector is saturated. To do this, the traffic volume
has to be increased at different levels for different flows, i.e. not homogeneously as
for the zero delay indicator.
The "saturated" nominal ACC capacity indicator is calculated as the sum of the
individual sector capacities, divided by the average number of active sectors crossed
by each flight5.
When Sector 3 reaches its declared capacity, the other sectors still have spare capacity. This
spare capacity can be used if the traffic flows are increased in non-homogeneous way; one
possibility, illustrated below, would be for the flow through Sector 1 to increase by 150%,
whereas the two other flows would increase respectively by 100% and 6%. The "Saturated"
nominal ACC capacity indicator is calculated as the sum of sector capacities divided by the
number of sectors crossed; in this case:
S1 S1
S3
S3
S2
S2
5 flights/hr
15 flights/hr 5+100%=10 15+6%=14
5
The average number of active sectors crossed by each flight during a given period is obtained by dividing the total
number of sector entries by the total demand on the ACC.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
The FACET nominal capacity indicator focuses only on the peak period and assumes
that the ACC operates in optimum sector configuration. In reality, as traffic levels vary
throughout the day, and from day to day, the capacity offered by an ACC is adapted
accordingly, by opening or closing (collapsing) different sectors.
Figure 3 shows how sector configuration can affect the traffic in an ACC. The
example features an ACC with 3 configurations (C1, C2, C3) as demand varies
through the day.
Figure 3
Flights Flights
per hour per hour
Actual Traffic ATFM
Nominal
C1
capacity
ATFM
Delayed Flights
C2
Capacity
T raffic Traffic Dem a n d
C3
Demand
0 6 12 18 24 Time 0 6 12 18 24 Time
It may happen, as illustrated above, that the sector configurations do not properly
match traffic demand and that the number of sectors open at a particular time is not
adequate to meet the corresponding demand, meaning that ATFM delays can occur
not only when demand exceeds the nominal maximum capacity (C1), but also when
the configuration is not optimally adapted (C2).
The nominal6 ACC capacity for both ‘zero delay’ and ‘saturated’ values can be
calculated for any sector configuration used throughout the day.
For each of the above, a zero delay and a saturated capacity value is calculated,
resulting in 6 nominal capacity indicators:
This list will be refined to a maximum of two indicators per ACC, published each
AIRAC cycle, in order to permit effective monitoring of offered capacity.
6
Remember, nominal capacity simply means that the ACC capacity is derived from the declared sector capacities,
which are nominal values.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
The CFMU also calculates the Nominal Zero Delay indicator for each ACC in its
maximum configuration, but this is the maximum configuration used during the day.
Thus, if the declared maximum configuration is not used (for example, due to lack of
staff or insufficient demand), the FACET/PACT and CFMU results will differ.
Additionally, the CFMU analyses actual traffic during the period of maximum
configuration, which may not coincide with the peak three hours, analysed by
FACET/PACT, if the sectorisation is not optimally configured.
For the nominal capacity indicators to be robust, it is essential that the CFMU
Environment (details of sector capacities and configurations, provided by ANSPs), is
accurate and up to date, and that changes to offered configurations are notified to the
CFMU.
Observed Capacity is an indicator of the effective capacity offered by the ACC that
day.
It is assessed from the observed air traffic data, and the actual ATFM delays, using
the Computer Assisted Slot Allocation algorithm (CASA) of the CFMU. CASA is
normally used to regulate traffic entering a sector by translating this sector's declared
capacity (e.g. a rate of 30 flights/hr) into a time interval (eg. 2 min/flight) and by
assigning entry slots at this interval to flights planned to enter the sector. This
generates ATFM delays.
Here the ACC is considered as a single elementary sector; the 'observed' ACC
capacity is defined as the 'declared' capacity of that elementary sector which would
generate the same ATFM delay as was actually observed.
This method can only be used for those ACC generating ATFM delays.
7
See Annex 4 for a more detailed description of the FAP/reverse CASA methodology.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
3. OPTIMUM CAPACITY
“Capacity has a cost, but insufficient capacity, which in turn generates delay,
has an even larger cost. Both capacity and delay costs are borne by airspace
users.”8 It is therefore necessary to determine the level of ATC capacity which
can be justified from a cost point of view i.e. the optimum trade-off between
delay and cost of ATC capacity.
The relationship between capacity and delay is not linear. More precisely, when the
demand is close to the maximum available capacity, there is a saturation of the ACC,
leading to a very sharp increase in delay.
A simple capacity/delay curve9 can represent how delay, capacity and demand
interact with each other for a given ACC.
Figure 4 below features a typical ACC where the Delay increases as the capacity
available decreases for a given level of traffic demand.
Figure 4
Delay
(minutes
per flight)
Capacity
(Number of flights/hour)
This capacity/delay curve will be used to elaborate the cost model, described in
section 3.2.
8
See Performance Review Report (PRR4), year 2000, p.25
9
The FAP tool features another similar curve, which represents delay as a function of the capacity/demand ratio.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
In order to make the best trade-off between the cost of delay and the cost of
capacity, and to set consistent targets, economical data are introduced.
Figure 5
Capacity
(flights/hr)
ALL THE ABOVE GRAPHS ARE VALID FOR A GIVEN DEMAND (e.g. the current demand)
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
For a given demand (so far, only the current demand has been considered), the total
cost curve is used to determine the Current Operating Point and the Optimum
Operating Point, as represented in Figure 6.
The Optimum Operating Point, which gives the lowest total cost of operation,
represents the best trade-off between the cost of providing capacity and the cost of
delay. This point provides for the Optimum Capacity (from a total cost point of view)
and optimum delay level for that ACC. This corresponds to the optimum level of
ATFM delay at overall ECAC level.
Figure 6
M€
Operating Point 1
Capacity
The Current Operating Point represents the cost of operating at current capacity.
Either the ACC capacity is above the Optimum capacity (Operating Point 1 in Fig. 6).
This is the case for many ACCs within the ECAC area with spare capacity10.
Or ACC capacity is lower than the Optimum capacity (Operating Point 2 in Fig. 7).
In this case, there is a capacity shortfall; the capacity shortfall being the
difference between the current operating point and the Optimum Operating
point, as shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7
Operating Point 2
Optimum Operating point
M€
Cost of
Capacity
Shortfall
Capacity Shortfall
10
This does not necessarily mean that such an ACC never generates delays: due to variation in demand,
unexpected events, sector opening patterns (see 2.2.1), or for other reasons, an ACC with an average capacity
above the demand can still generate significant delay at times.
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4. DEMAND FORECAST
The cost curve built so far determines the optimum capacity for the current traffic
demand. However, to assess requirements for the future, it is necessary to forecast
the evolution of the demand. Once assessed, the future demand will be incorporated
into the model in an updated cost curve.
4.1 Principles
The future air traffic demand at ACC level is assessed by the FAP tool, using as
inputs:
- the overall traffic growth rates, established by the STATFOR (STATistical
FORecasting) process as described in Section 4.2 below;
- the route network evolution and utilisation, simulated by the System for
Assignment and Analysis at Macroscopic level (SAAM), an airspace modelling tool
described in Section 4.3 below;
- Airports capacities from the Eurocontrol Airports Database (See Section 4.4).
Figure 8
C u rrent
Traffic
A irports data
Base STATFOR SAAM
FAP
Forecast dem a n d
per ACC
The STATFOR service processes air traffic statistics at European level (using
CFMU and CRCO data) and produces traffic forecasts. These forecasts take into
account different sets of assumptions, e.g. economic growth, airline productivity,
competition from other means of transport, as well as the ‘maximum aircraft
movements per year’ at congested airports. The STATFOR forecasts are based on a
certain number of “traffic flows” between a number of origin/destination zones (ODZ).
An ODZ corresponds to a major airport or to a group of airports. These zones cover
the entire world but are naturally more detailed for the European area. STATFOR
provides traffic growth forecast for both different ODZ pairs and for the countries
overflown.
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The air traffic demand at the level of a particular ATC unit is clearly influenced by the
distribution of traffic over the European route network.
To assess the future demand for individual ACCs, simulations are performed to show
how the traffic currently handled by the CFMU would be distributed over the future
route network (e.g. the Air Route Network-Version 4 (ARN.V4) which supported the
introduction of Reduced Vertical Separation Minima in January 2002), following the
user’s preference for the shortest routes along that future network, and without
vertical profile constraints.
The simulations of the new route network are made using the System for Assignment
and Analysis at a Macroscopic Level tool (SAAM) used to support the work of the
EATMP Airspace Management and Navigation Unit.
Growth of air traffic may be constrained by the capacity of airports. This factor is
considered at two levels:
• The annual traffic growth forecast by STATFOR takes account of possible annual
capacity limits of the major airports;
• The growth of traffic during the peak period measured by FAP takes account of
planned airport capacity (movements per hour) taken from the EUROCONTROL
Airports Data Base.
FAP translates the STATFOR forecast growth rate per airport pair (Origin/Destination
Zone (ODZ) pair) into forecast traffic demand at ACC level. For that purpose it takes
a traffic sample from the CFMU and augments it by “cloning” existing flights : i.e. for
each ODZ pair, new flights are created in proportion of the STATFOR growth rates.
FAP assumes that, in the absence of any contrary information, the characteristics of
the current traffic distribution over time throughout the day will remain valid during the
prediction period, for each ODZ (as illustrated in Figure 9a).
Figure 9a
Flights/hour
Traffic augmentation
90
80
70
60 Cloned
Flights
50
40
30 Actual
Flights
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 131415 161718 192021 222324
Time/hour
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
Nevertheless, airport capacity constraints may limit the growth potential on the ODZ
pair considered. To gauge this effect FAP adjusts the timing of new flights contained
within the forecast growth, so that the declared hourly capacity is respected. (In a
way roughly representing the action of a scheduling committee at a “coordinated”
airport11).
- first to spread peak traffic demand in time, by shifting the creation of new flights,
by up to one hour, to a non-saturated period (as illustrated in the following
diagram);
It does not accommodate additional new demand when no alternative airport can be
identified in the same ODZ.
Figure 9b
Displaced or non-
accommodated Flights
Traffic augmentation
90
80 Shifted Capacity
Flights
70
Flights/hour
60 Cloned
Flights
50
40
30 Actual
Flights
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time/hour
11
At capacity constrained airports in the European Community, Council Regulation EEC 95/93 regulates the
allocation of scheduling slots to its aircraft operators through a formal coordination process, prior to the
establishment of flight schedules for the next season. When a user request for slot can not be accommodated,
the coordinator indicates the nearest alternative slot.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
Capacity requirements for the short and medium-term are assessed on the basis of
the high-level capacity objective of the ATM Strategy for the years 2000 and beyond
(ATM 2000+)12 “to provide sufficient capacity to accommodate the demand in typical
busy hour periods without imposing significant operational, economic or
environmental penalties13 under normal circumstances.”
The forecast of the air traffic demand to be accommodated is based on the results
of the simulation of traffic flows from the modelling described in paragraph 4.
The criteria for deciding the level of penalties to be considered ‘significant’ are set
by the EUROCONTROL (Provisional) Council (PC) based on the recommendations
of the Performance Review Commission (PRC), the ATM/CNS Consultative Group
(ACG) and of the EUROCONTROL Agency.
The criteria differ between the short-term (one year) and the medium-term (five
years) :
- For the short-term, there is little room for manoeuvre, only minor adjustments to
the existing infrastructure and operating procedures are possible. The emphasis
tends to be on removing existing bottlenecks, i.e. improving the capacity without
aiming for optimum.
- For the medium-term, there is more possibility to plan for adequate means to be
put in place to reach the optimum.
Short term capacity requirements are associated to the average delay per flight to be
achieved. The Provisional Council (PC) defines each year the target average
delay per flight at overall European level (ECAC).
This short-term global delay target for the ECAC zone, is translated into specific
capacity levels for each individual ACC by the FAP model15 .
12
The ATM 2000+ Strategy was adopted by Transport Ministers at their MATSE 6 meeting in January 2000
13
Significant penalties means to make the trade-off between capacity and delay cost.
14
For example, in 2001, if every ACC had reached its Optimum capacity, the average delay per flight would be about
1 minute. However, the short-term average delay target agreed by the PC was 2.8 minutes for Summer 2001 and
is 2.5 minutes for Summer 2002.
15
See annex 6.
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The capacity profiles given in the European Convergence & Implementation Plan
(ECIP) for each ACC.
Figure 10
Capacity
Flights per hour
Demand
Increase
Capacity Adjusted targets Year N+6
Year N
Surplus Target
Year N Capacity
Optimum Targets
increase
Optimum Year N+6
capacity
Year N Sub-optimum targets
Shortfall
Year N
Capacity
Year N
The capacity target level for 2006 corresponds to the cost optimum for the ACC and
to the overall delay target adopted by the PC16 represent the ACC capacity required
to cover:
- the forecast traffic increase,
- and, if appropriate, the current capacity shortfall, i.e., the difference between the
optimum capacity and the current capacity (as described in section 3.3).
The figure illustrates an ACC with a capacity surplus (pink), an ACC with a capacity
shortfall (blue) and an ACC with optimum capacity (green).
For the ACC with optimum capacity, the requirement is only to cover the forecast
traffic increase. For the ACC with a capacity shortfall the requirement is to cover
both the shortfall and the traffic increase, and for the one with a surplus the
requirement is to achieve the optimum capacity in the medium term, without costly
over provision.
16
PC/10 (5 April ’01) agreed that a delay target should reduce progressively to reach the optimum level of 1
min/flight in 2006.
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
Annex 1 : Acronyms
ACC : Area Control Centre
MECA: Model for Economical evaluation of Capacities in the ATM system (FAP)
PC : Provisional Council
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The definitions in this paper are provided to assist with understanding of capacity
planning documentation. Unless formally defined elsewhere, they have no
official status.
ATFM delay Duration between the last take - off time requested by the Min./flight CFMU ATFM
aircraft operator and the take-off slot allocated by the Summary
CFMU following a regulation communicated by the FMP, in 2001
relation to an airport or enroute sector location.
delay overload.
Delay Target To achieve an average ATFM enroute delay* per flight in Min./flight ECIP Level 1
the ECAC area during the Summer* season, with an 2002-2006, p.
optimum balance between the cost of delay and the cost of 10
providing additional capacity.
Peak Period The time of the highest demand during the measured
period.
Period
Basic CFMU
2. Expressed as the number of a/c entering a sector, Handbook –
overflying a point, departing from an Aerodrome, or General and
arriving at an Aerodrome or set of Aerodromes per CFMU
hour. Capacity may vary during the hours of a day and systems,
between the days of a week. para. 8.11
Sector Number of flights that may enter a sector per hour over a flights/hr Page 3
capacity period of time (3 hours), without causing excessive
workload for the sector control team, and therefore without
impeding safety.
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Declared Maximum sector entry rate (number of flights per hour), as flights/hr Page 3
Sector assessed by the ANSP, and declared to the CFMU so that
Capacity sector can be protected from overload.
ACC
ACC Regular hourly traffic that can enter the ACC without flights/hr Page 3
Capacity generating excessive workload of the control team in any
one of the sectors.
Q ACC ACC capacity at the point where the first sector becomes
Nominal saturated. Calculated using the FACET (FAP ACC Capacity
Zero Evaluation Tool) simulation. It is the sum of individual
ACC Capacity
Offered The nominal* ACC capacity (either saturated*or zero flights/hr Page 6
capacity delay*) for the average of all of the configurations opened
throughout the day.
ACC Effective capacity assessed from the observed air traffic, flights/hr Page 8
Observed and the actual ATFM delays, using the CASA algorithm of
Capacity the CFMU.
Optimum The maximum ATC capacity that can be justified from a flights/hr Page 9
capacity cost point of view i.e. the optimum trade-off between delay
and cost of ATC capacity.
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Planned Capacity level planned by the ANSP and published in the flights/hr
Capacity
capacity CFMU Précis for the next Summer, and in the LCIP
document. Expressed as a percentage increase of the
baseline*, and as an absolute value (flights per hour)
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
CEM : jean-louis.renteux@eurocontrol.int
CFMU : etienne.de-muelenaere@eurocontrol.int
FAP : marc.dalichampt@eurocontrol.int
PRU : xavier.fron@eurocontrol.int
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Assessing Future ATC Capacity Requirements – A User Guide
Annex 4 : PACT
The Portable ACC Capacity Evaluation Tool (PACT Software version 1.5)
1. What is PACT?
PACT stands for Portable ACC Capacity Evaluation Tool. It is a PC based version of
FACET, developed at the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, enabling national
capacity planners to evaluate ACC capacity from declared sector capacities, for
selected configurations and traffic samples. PACT can evaluate the effect of new
configurations or changes in sector capacities over the whole ACC.
Planners, capacity managers and operational staff responsible for managing ACC
capacity.
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PACT Software Application has been developed for the Microsoft Windows system.
To use PACT 1.5 you need:
Q Personal or multimedia computer with a Intel Pentium II Processor 300 MHz or
equivalent
Q Microsoft Windows 98 operating system or Microsoft Windows NT SP5
(recommended)
♦ 64 MB of memory
♦ 50 MB of hard disk space required
♦ CD-ROM drive
♦ VGA or higher-resolution video adapter (Super VGA with 65536 colours and
Desktop area with 1024 by 768 pixels recommended).
PACT has been tested using Windows 2000 and Windows XP. All output files are in
Excel format. You need Microsoft Office 97 (Excel 8.0) or above to work with PACT
Software. PACT has also been tested with Excel 2000.
The easiest way to obtain PACT is to download version 1.5 from the website. Even if
you already have a previous version (1.3 was the previous released version), you
can download the new version 1.5.
There are now 2 databases available – AIRAC cycle 219, 12 July to 8 August 2001,
and AIRAC cycle 229, 16 April to 15 May 2002. These databases include actual
traffic samples (CFMU flight plan data) for each day, and the CFMU Environment
data on sector capacities and configurations existing during the AIRAC cycle.
www.pact-eurocontrol.fr.st
To access the PACT download section, you need a login and password:
Login : pactuser
Password : pact155b
6. Contact
Help and advice is available from the PACT helpline via email pact@eurocontrol.int
or from the Capacity Enhancement Function at EUROCONTROL, tel: +32 (0)2 729
3367.
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For an ACC with a capacity shortfall (i.e. the ACC generates delay), the FAP
analyses the observed Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) delays for a series of
given days, in order to determine the ACC capacity.
The days chosen for study correspond to a set whose observed delay correlates well
with the observed yearly delay distribution. A series of Summer days are chosen as
in most ACCs this corresponds to the period of peak demand and therefore
represents the ideal benchmark for the definition of future performance criteria.
Within the CFMU, the ATFM delay is manifested in terms of the allocation of a
Calculated Take Off Time (CTOT) as a means to regulate the flow of aircraft through
each regulated zone. The CTOT represents a deviation from the normal take-off time
that would have been achieved by the aircraft had it adhered to its estimated off
block time (EOBT) at the last filed flight plan. The assignment of a CTOT therefore
constitutes an ATFM delay.
Delays are determined by the CFMU Tactical system (TACT) according to the
declared sector capacities and any regulations that may be in force during the day in
question. The heart of TACT is the Computer Assisted Slot Allocation (CASA)
algorithm which assigns CTOT and ATFM delays to individual aircraft affected by the
regulations in force.
The delay assigned to an aircraft is considered as the result of the most penalising
regulation along its route and it is therefore possible to assign the CFMU delay to an
individual ACC or airport.
For any given day, the CFMU archive data includes the filed flight plans (employed
by TACT), the declared ACC sector configurations, the regulations in force and the
consequential ATFM delays.
All of this data is used within FAP in order to determine the ACC ‘observed’
capacity. This is defined as the declared capacity which would generate the
same ATFM delay as was actually observed, if the ACC were considered as a
single elementary sector.
The CFMU hourly sector regulations are simplified within FAP in order to apply a
constant regulation throughout the day.
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When performing this iterative analysis, it is necessary to consider the ATM system
as a network. This is a common theme within FAP, the idea that there is a close
interaction between the capacities and demand for each ACC and the way that these
parameters affect the observed delay in other ACCs. Hence the iteration is
performed simultaneously for all ACCs and only when each ACC gives the same
calculated delay as that observed in the CFMU is the process considered to be
terminated17.
This iterative convergence process within the network is achieved by the AMOC
(ATFM Modelling Capability) tool which is an integral part of FAP and has an
integrated copy of CASA. The convergence to the correct delays for each ACC within
the network can typically be the result of several thousand ATFM simulations.
The traffic demand in each ACC, and the consequential determination of delays, is
based on the CFMU TACT profile calculation. Although this profile may not be
identical to the actual profile flown by the aircraft (for reasons such as performance,
Letters of Agreement or routing schemes not modelled in TACT), it does correspond
to the profile that is used in the assignment of the ATFM departure slot and is
therefore considered to be the ideal one for the purposes of FAP.
The result of this analysis is a set of capacity estimates for each ACC, respecting the
CFMU traffic demand, TACT profile, sectorisation and regulation schemes in force,
as well as the interactions of capacity and delay between ACCs. If each ACC
comprised a single elementary sector with the regulations in force for the day in
question, then the calculated ACC capacities would have generated the same ATFM
delay as was observed in CFMU.
This method is considered to provide an accurate estimate of the ACC capacity for
delay producing ACCs.
17
If the correct delay has been found for a given ACC, then the process of changing the estimated capacity in
another ACC may affect the newly observed delay in a previously correct ACC – this is the so-called network
effect.
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The EUROCONTROL Provisional Council approves a short term delay target quoted
in terms of an average delay per flight not to be exceeded during the Summer
season across the whole ECAC area.
It is possible within FAP to calculate the capacity increase necessary in each ACC in
order to achieve this target delay per flight.
Clearly there is no “unique solution” to this problem i.e. a wide range of capacity
augmentations in differing ACCs and airports within the network could achieve the
average delay target.
The method retained is to determine the cost-optimum set of capacity increases that
would achieve the delay target per flight within the network; it is performed in
FAP/MECA based on the Return On Investment (ROI) principle. This can be thought
of as the return (cost reduction due to delay reduction) that is achieved for a given
investment (cost for capacity increase to target capacity level).
where :
Costdel,do-nothing is the cost associated with the predicted delays at the current capacity level
with the future traffic scenario
Costdel,target is the cost associated with the predicted delays given the target capacity
level
Costcap,target is the cost associated with the provision of the capacity to the target level
Costcap,current is the cost associated with the provision of capacity at the current levels
MECA calculates the ROI for each ACC and chooses the one with the highest value
of ROI for a unit capacity increase. Following this augmentation, a complete new
network ATFM simulation is executed after which MECA again identifies the ACC
with the highest value of ROI – this process continuing until the ATFM simulation
identifies that the target value of delay has been attained.
Iterative ATFM network simulations with best ROI to achieve target delay
ATFM No
Simulation MECA
Delay per Augment
Future flight = target capacity
1999 according to
scenario ACC with
Yes best ROI
Once the target delay is reached, the capacity requirement for each ACC is
expressed in terms of the capacity increase that was necessary in order for the
convergence to be achieved.
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ASSESSING FUTURE ATC CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS - A USER GUIDE
Version 1.1 – July 2002