To: Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies

Date: March 6, 2018

Rachel Reddick Leads Scott Wallace, Poised for Further Gains in PA-1 Primary

Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania’s new 1st Congressional District are up for
grabs. Navy veteran, mom, and advocate for survivors of domestic violence, Rachel Reddick’s
compelling profile makes her an incredibly strong contender for the Democratic nomination in
this Clinton +2 district. According to a recent survey,1 Reddick starts with a 7-point advantage
over Scott Wallace, which she expands once voters hear about both candidates.

Furthermore, Democrats’ concerns about Wallace’s background are intense—a warning

sign for the party, should he emerge from the primary in a general election where winning over
Independent voters will be critical. The following are key findings from the survey.

• Reddick begins with lead, but race still undefined. Voters are still getting to know both
candidates, leading to a situation where many begin the race undecided. Still, Reddick’s
27 – 20 percent lead over Wallace (she leads with both men and women, liberals and
moderates) gives her an early edge. Steve Bacher also wins 7 percent.

Figure 1
60
50
40
30
20 46
10 27 20
0 7
Rachel Scott Wallace Steve Bacher Undecided
Reddick

• Even after voters hear profiles imbalanced in Wallace’s favor, Reddick expands lead.
The survey simulated a scenario where Scott Wallace is able to dramatically outspend
Reddick, given Wallace’s position as a self-funder. Despite this, a message from Reddick
highlighting her own story actually expanded her lead to 46 – 35 percent2, with Bacher
at 2 percent. Reddick performed well across the board in this exercise, but made

1
Survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania’s 1st CD was conducted by professional
interviews between February 28-March 4, 2018. Respondents were interviewed by live dialers on land lines and cell
phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
2
The survey results here are from the 200 respondents who heard the Reddick message in Figure 2.

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 Rachel Reddick (PA-1)

disproportionate gains in Lower Bucks, and with seniors and voters without a college
degree.

Figure 2
Candidate Messages Figure 24

Scott Wallace will fight for our progressive values

against the Trump administration and the
Republicans in Congress who refuse to stand up
to him. Scott grew up in Bucks County, where his
mom was the President of Planned Parenthood of
Bucks County. He and his wife run their family's As a Navy veteran, a Bucks County native, and a
charitable foundation, which helps empower mom, Rachel Reddick is ready to bring a fresh
women, fight climate change and create clean voice to Congress. Rachel has dedicated her
energy jobs. He was inspired to enter public career to public service, first as an advocate for
service by his grandfather, who served as Vice domestic abuse survivors in Doylestown and then
President of the United States under FDR. Scott on active duty for six years as a Navy JAG lawyer
has dedicated his life to public service, helping and on a warship in the Pacific. Rachel is a proud
secure disability compensation and job training for progressive who will stand up for those who don't
our veterans and advocating for legal services for have a voice and fight against Trump's dangerous
the poor. Scott earned the endorsement of the agenda, supporting universal healthcare access
Bucks County Democratic Party because he will and a fair tax plan for the middle class.
stand firm against attempts to weaken Obamacare
and he will vote to overturn the Republican tax
scam that will make middle-class families pay
more so billionaires and corporations can pay less.

• Wallace’s carpetbagging causes major concerns with PA-1 Democrats; Reddick’s vote
history does not. In one of the survey’s starkest findings, Democratic primary voters
expressed very serious doubts about Wallace after learning about his homes in Maryland
and South Africa and his intention to move into the state to self-fund his campaign. The
statement (the full version is below) raised very serious doubts among 32 percent of
Democrats, with another 42 percent saying it gave them serious doubts about him.

As a comparison, a simulation of an attack on Reddick’s own vote history only raised

very serious doubts among 14 percent of primary voters (another 37 percent said it raised
‘serious’ doubts about her).

Figure 3
Simulated Attacks on Candidates Figure 19

After I read each statement, please tell me whether it raises very serious, serious, minor or no real doubts about
that candidate.

(WALLACE) Scott Wallace has come up here from Maryland and

has pledged to use five million dollars of his family's money to buy
himself a Congressional seat. Wallace has not lived in Pennsylvania
in four decades. Until a few weeks ago, he divided his time betweenx 32 74
a gated community in Cape Town, South Africa and a two-million-
dollar mansion in the Washington DC suburbs, where he failed to
pay more than sixty-eight thousand dollars in taxes.

(REDDICK) We need a strong, progressive voice to stand up to

Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress, but Rachel
Reddick has only been a Democrat since last year, changing her x 14 51
party registration just before moving to Bucks County to run for this
seat. And Reddick doesn't even follow our election laws, using her
parents' address to improperly vote in Pennsylvania last year while
she was still a registered voter in Washington DC.
Very serious Total serious 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100