Professional Documents
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Submitted by
Komal B Nemade.
CERTIFICATE
This project work is original & not submitted earlier for the award of any
I hereby declare that this project Report submitted by me to the Sheila Raheja
by me & it is not submitted to any other university or institution for the award
I take this opportunity to specially gratify Dr. Vijay Wagh, director, Sheila Raheja School of
Business Management & Research, for permitting me to undertake this study. I am deeply
indebted to my guide Prof. Rahul Sanghavi for not only his valuable and enlightened, guidance
but also for the freedom he rendered me during this project work.
Faculty Members, who have extended their kind help, guidance and suggestion without which it
could not have been possible for me to complete this project report.
I also take this opportunity to express my gratitude to Company Mentor (Name of mentor,
position, organization), for his cordial support, valuable information and guidance, which has
helped me in completing this task through various phases during the project.
Name: Komal B. Nemade
Roll No: 128
Specialization: Finance
TABLE OF CONTENT
1 Ch 1 Introduction
1.1 Section 1 Problem Statement
1.2 Section 2 Research Objective
1.3 Section 3 Research Hypothesis
1.4 Section 4 Limitations
2 Ch 2 Literature Review
3 Ch 3 Methodology
4 Ch 4 Data Analysis/Results
5 Ch 5 Discussion
6 Ch 6 Conclusion
7 Ch 7 References/Bibliography
INTRODUCTION
SUMMARY
A research conducted under a topic “A study on technical analysis of nifty energy index stock
by using simple moving averages and Fibonacci retracement.” The Research is done only on
technical analysis by using Fibonacci Retracement & Simple Moving Average. Executive
Summary is presented in three parts consisting of a conceptual analysis followed by an analysis
of relevant existing literature review in the area of analyzing the Nifty Private Bank Index Stock
by using Fibonacci Retracement & Simple Moving Average.
Fibonacci Retracements are proportions used to distinguish potential inversion levels. These
proportions are found in the Fibonacci succession. The most well known Fibonacci Retracements
are 61.8% and 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is frequently adjusted to 38% and 61.8 is adjusted to
62%. After a boost, chartists apply Fibonacci proportions to characterize retracement levels and
estimate the degree of a revision or pullback. Fibonacci Retracements can likewise be connected
after a decrease to conjecture the length of a counter-drift bob. These retracements can be joined
with different pointers and value examples to make a general procedure.
Problem statement
To study the technical analysis of energy sector using Fibonacci retracement and simple moving
averages.
Research objective
To study the upward trend and entry & exit in nifty energy index stock using Fibonacci
retracement and simple moving average.
Hypothesis statement
H0: By applying simple moving averages we get trend line and by Fibonacci retracement we
get entrance & exit price of nifty stock
H1: By applying simple moving averages we don’t get to trend line and by Fibonacci
retracement we don’t get entrance & exit price of nifty stock
Research design
Exploratory and descriptive design is used.
Limitation
The study is done on secondary data is used
The data is limited only on Nifty Private Bank Index Stock for 5 Years.
LITERATURE REVIEW
1) “Can we apply Fibonacci retracement in the African market?”- Toshitsugu Otake at African
Journal of Business Management, 28 June, 2013, Vol. 7(24), ISSN 1993-8233, in this research Some
traders look at a trend line flouting rules that require to buy or sell if the price breaks overhead some
resistance level or falls through some support level, An upward trend is a succession of higher peaks and
troughs.
2) The Fibonacci Numbers and Its Amazing Applications Sudipta Sinha, ISSN- 2319 – 6726
Fibonacci sequence of numbers and the associated “Golden Ratio” are manifested in nature and in certain
works of art. We observe that many of the natural things follow the Fibonacci sequence. It appears in
biological settings such as branching in trees, phyllotaxis (the arrangement of leaves on a stem), the fruit
sprouts of a pineapple, the flowering of an artichoke, an uncurling fern and the arrangement of a pine
cone's bracts etc. At present Fibonacci numbers plays very important role in coding theory.
Fibonacci numbers in different forms are widely applied in constructing security coding.
3) Fibonacci Numbers and Golden Ratio in Mathematics and Science Omotehinwa T. O, Ramon
S.O, ISSN: 2279 – 0764 In this paper we discussed the mathematical concept of consecutive Fibonacci
numbers or sequence which has leads to golden ratio (an irrational number that most often occurred when
taking distances proportion in simple geometry shape), and convergence of the sequence and any
geometric significance. We consider the spiral and self-similar curve which have been appreciated for
long due to their beauty in the world. Furthermore, we take into account the recurrence relation of
Fibonacci sequence, which can be use to generate Lucas sequence with the aid of different initial
condition.
4) Secured Communication through Fibonacci Numbers and Unicode Symbols A. Joseph Raphael,
Dr. V. Sundaram, ISSN 2229-5518 The objective of cryptography is to make it feasible for two persons
to exchange a message in such a way that other persons cannot understand. There is no end to the number
of ways this can be done, but here the proposed method will be more concerned with a technique of
encoding the text in such a way that the recipient can only discover the original message. The original
message usually called plain text is converted into cipher text by finding each character in the message
and replacing it with another character based on the Fibonacci number generated.
5) Performance analysis of secured communication with Cryptography using fibonacci series Ms.
Namita george gonsalves, ISSN: 2394-3696 Data security has been a major concern in the today’s
information technology era. Especially it becomes serious in the cloud environment because the data is
located in different places all over the world. Encryption has come up as a solution and different
encryption algorithms play an important role in data security on cloud. Encryption algorithms are used to
ensure the security of data in cloud. The purpose of securing data is that only concerned and authorized
users can access it. In this paper we describes the basic characteristics (Key Length, File size) of
symmetric Fibonacci Cryptography, Asymmetric RSA algorithms.
6) “Can we apply Fibonacci retracement in the African market?”- Toshitsugu Otake at African
Journal of Business Management, 28 June, 2013, Vol. 7(24), ISSN 1993-8233, in this research Some
traders look at a trend line flouting rules that require to buy or sell if the price breaks overhead some
resistance level or falls through some support level, An upward trend is a succession of higher peaks and
troughs.
7) “Technical Analysis of Price Formations with Fibonacci Sequence on Warsaw Stock Exchange”-
Dawid Lahutta, Department of Finance and Accounting, at world Scientific News, EISSN 2392-2192,
Investing on the stock market is associated with taking risk, The purpose of this article is the presentation
and description of technical analysis tools Based on Fibonacci sequence on price patterns created using
Fibonacci numbers. In the first part of the article the author presents Fibonacci sequence and the golden
ratio, then pointing out the possibilities of its use on financial markets, The article ends with conclusions
concerning the use of Fibonacci numbers and the golden ratio in the technical analysis, and the possibility
of effective price pattern application in the actual investment.
8) What Period of Time is better to Use for Moving Average to Predict Stock Price in Tehran Stock
Exchange?” Mehdi Khorram and Majid Sheshmani at Indian Journal of Science and Technology,
ISSN: 0974-6846, the aim of this study is to find out the most appropriate moving average by assessing
the simple moving averages for periods of 1 to 200 days using a feature selection algorithm called
Correlation-Based Filter. Present, technical analysis is widely used by investors as a prediction technique.
9) To Study the Trend and Behaviour Analysis ofIndian Equity Market Using Elliott Wave
Principle and Fibonacci sequence ISSN: 2319-8753 Dr. Pooja Talreja Vol. 3, Issue 6, June
2014 The study signifies that the Technical indicators possess predictive ability to the extent that
investor's possess predictive ability to the extent that investors believe they contain information on Future
Market growths, and/or to the extent that the indicators reflect changing prospects among market
contributors.
10) How to use Fibonacci retracement to predict forex market Violeta Gaucan, Titu Maiorescu
University, Bucharest, Romania ISSN 2069 – 5934 Fibonacci Retracement trading is used in all
markets – online stock trading, Fibonacci Forex trading and also in the futures markets. Whether or not
one believes the Fibonacci trading numbers have any special significance, the fact that they are so
pervasively used creates a self-fulfilling Prediction to the levels. Thus, for whatever reason you choose to
believe, Fibonacci retracement levels are an important part of technical analysis and should be Combined
into your trading system.
11) To Study the Trend and Behavior Analysis of Indian Equity Market Using Elliott Wave ISSN
ONLINE(2319-8753) PRINT(2347- 6710) Dr. Pooja Talreja Assistant Professor, Acropolis Institute
of Technology & Research, Mangalia Square, Indore, India An investor can succeed in his
investment only when he is able to Choice the right shares. The investors should keenly watch the
situations like market price, economy, company progress, returns, and the risk involved in a share before
taking decision on a particular share. The correctness of and the applicability has proved that the magical
wave principle is capable of classifying and understanding the market thinking and represents the future
market direction.
12) PREDICTING STOCK PRICES USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOL LIKE TREND
LINE, SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES AND FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT FOR SHORT
TERM TRADING PROFITISSN -2347-856X ISSN -2348-0653 The current studies studying that by
using Trend Line, Simple Moving Average Line and Fibonacci Retracement tool stock price can be
expecting and trader can earn short term profit for that 4 stock prices are studied out of 4 stock, 2 are
buy(Long) trade and 2 are sell(Short) trade.
13) STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY: AN EVALUATION Dr.Debesh Bhowmik (International
Institute for Development Studies,Kolkata) ISSN 2250-3153 International Journal of Scientific and
Research Publications, Volume 3, Issue 10, October 2013 The paper studied various sizes of stock
market volatility including measurement and nature of impact of volatility with the help of
important economic writings. It highlighted also on the political factors of volatility and tried to
relate economic growth with stock market volatility in the long run process reviewing a few
econometric models and concludes that political instability and unhappiness catapulted the stock
market volatility which dwindled the growth rate of a country including a strong negative
spillover effects of volatility from other countries on growth rate.
15) A note on the use of moving average trading rules to test for weak form efficiency in capital
markets Alexandros E. Milionisb Evangelia Papanagiotou ISSN 1109-6691 One of the main purposes
of this work was to attempt to discover the possible Functional dependence of total returns using the
moving average trading rule on the Length of the moving average, expecting, amongst others, to identify
length(s) for which the trading rule’s presentation could be maximized. What we found is that such a
functional relationship cannot be established due to the High variability of trading rule total returns.
16) International Journal of Advance Research in Computer Science and Management Studies A
Study on Impact of the Stressful Work in Organization Volume 5, Issue 10, October 2017 ISSN:
2321-7782 The normal limits to worker perceptions usually the leading sensitive measure of worrying in
service circumstances and from time to time gives the primary indication of involvement efficiency.
Adding objective events like absence and health care issues might also be helpful. However, the results of
job stress involvements on such measures lean to be less clear-cut and might take a lengthy time to seem.
19) “PREDICTION OF BUY AND SELL SIGNALS USING A MOVING AVERAGE- TOOL OF
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS” DR. S.D. VASHISHTHA, DR. UMED SINGH & RAJESH
KUMAR AT INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MARKETING, FINANCIAL SERVICES &
MANAGEMENT RESEARCH, VOL.2, NO. 3, MARCH (2013), ISSN 2277- 3622 in this research
paper researcher studies with the above study it can now be concluded that Moving average tool
is an effective tool for predicting buying and selling signals. This study also infers that it is more
faithful tool to predict signals (buy & sell) about the securities, because it is calculated by
adding the closing price of a security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by
the number of time periods or in other words it is based on more than one average. But it should
not forget that actual share price line is influenced by many factors as such- internal information,
speeches of the ministers, and etc. So, decisions relating to buy and sell of securities should not
take only on the basis of one tool of analysis.
METHODOLOGY
Sampling strategy
Definition
The study is about to analysis on nifty bank index stock by using Fibonacci retracement &
moving averages. Here the universe of the study is by using Fibonacci retracement & moving
averages on nifty bank index stock.
Investing
Newspaper
Articles
Websites
RESULT
DATA INTERPRETATION
As you see in the above weekly chart of IOC, purple line is 13 simple moving
averages (13SMA) and green line is 21 simple moving averages (21SMA) and
retracement level is 50% when the price moves above the trend line then 13 simple
moving averages cut the 21 simple moving averages.
As you see in the above weekly chart of BPCL, purple line is 13 simple moving
averages (13SMA) and green line is 21 simple moving averages (21SMA) and
retracement level is 50% when the price moves above the trend line then 13 simple
moving averages cut the 21 simple moving averages.
DISCUSSION
Finding: 1
Stock Buy Sell Difference Profit Retracement Stop Difference Stop
Rate at in% Level Loss loss in
top %
rate
Finding: 2
Finding: 4
Stock Buy Sell Difference Profit Retracement Stop Difference Stop
Rate at in% Level Loss loss
top in %
rate
Finding: 5
Stock Buy Sell Difference Profit Retracement Stop Difference Stop
Rate at in% Level Loss loss in
top %
rate
1. https://chartink.com
2. www.ijcit.com
3. www.ijsser.org
4. www.witpress.com
5. www.ajer.org
6. www.worldscientificnews.com
7. www.bankofgreece.gr
8. http://inpressco.com/category/ijcet
9. http://www.goldennumber.net
10. http://www.vietnamam.com/vietnam/vietnam-overview
11. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2016.08.111
12. www.FutureAcademy.org.uk
13. http://www.investopedia.com/activetrading/technical-indicators
14. http://www.tranzactiibursiere.ro/
15. www.irmbrjournal.com
16. www.indjst.org
References
1) “Can we apply Fibonacci retracement in the African market?”- Toshitsugu Otake at African
Journal of Business Management, 28 June, 2013, Vol. 7(24), ISSN 1993-8233
2) The Fibonacci Numbers and Its Amazing Applications Sudipta Sinha, ISSN- 2319 – 6726
6) Can we apply Fibonacci retracement in the African market?”- Toshitsugu Otake at African
Journal of Business Management, 28 June, 2013, Vol. 7(24), ISSN 1993-8233
8) What Period of Time is better to Use for Moving Average to Predict Stock Price in Tehran
Stock Exchange?” Mehdi Khorram and Majid Sheshmani at Indian Journal of Science and
Technology, ISSN: 0974-6846
9) To Study the Trend and Behaviour Analysis ofIndian Equity Market Using Elliott
Wave Principle and Fibonacci sequence ISSN: 2319-8753 Dr. Pooja Talreja Vol. 3,
Issue 6, June 2014
10) How to use Fibonacci retracement to predict forex market Violeta Gaucan, Titu Maiorescu
University, Bucharest, Romania ISSN 2069 – 5934
11) To Study the Trend and Behavior Analysis of Indian Equity Market Using Elliott Wave ISSN
ONLINE(2319-8753) PRINT(2347- 6710) Dr. Pooja Talreja Assistant Professor, Acropolis
Institute of Technology & Research, Mangalia Square, Indore
12) PREDICTING STOCK PRICES USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOL LIKE TREND
LINE, SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES AND FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT FOR SHORT
TERM TRADING PROFITISSN -2347-856X ISSN -2348-0653
15) A note on the use of moving average trading rules to test for weak form efficiency in capital
markets Alexandros E. Milionisb Evangelia Papanagiotou ISSN 1109-6691
16) International Journal of Advance Research in Computer Science and Management Studies A
Study on Impact of the Stressful Work in Organization Volume 5, Issue 10, October 2017
ISSN: 2321-7782
19) PREDICTION OF BUY AND SELL SIGNALS USING A MOVING AVERAGE- TOOL OF
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS” DR. S.D. VASHISHTHA, DR. UMED SINGH & RAJESH KUMAR
AT INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MARKETING, FINANCIAL SERVICES &
MANAGEMENT RESEARCH, VOL.2, NO. 3, MARCH (2013), ISSN 2277- 3622
20) A STUDY ON EQUITY SHARE PRICE BEHAVIOR OF SELECTED STOCK FROM DIFFERENT
SECTORS” – MRS. VIMLA S, MRS. SARANYA P.B, MS. SARANYA R AT GLOBAL JOURNAL
OF RESEARCH ANALYSIS, APRIL 2014, VOLUME 3, ISSUE 4, ISSN NO.22778160