Professional Documents
Culture Documents
6. Water management 34
RY
TH
Y
A
R ANNIVE
Philip Hopwood
Global Leader – Mining
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
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Tracking the trends 2018
Changing for
the better
This 2018 edition of Tracking to strengthen balance sheet image. It is also resulting in a
the trends heralds a milestone, performance, reduce debt, more disciplined investment
marking our tenth year of exercise capital discipline, and approach—one that may
publication. Over the past simplify portfolios, this has ultimately expose the dark
decade, commodity prices resulted in improved valuation side of conservatism as supply
reached both historic highs metrics, record free cash flow, shortages begin to loom.
and historic lows, mining and stronger shareholder
companies engaged in both returns. In many respects, the In this tenth anniversary
significant acquisitions and mining sector is once again report, Deloitte’s global mining
consolidation, and operational poised for growth. professionals once again share
realities shifted irrevocably in their experiences to help
the face of a digital revolution. However, unlike previous cycles, identify strategies companies
For an industry considered mining companies appear to can take to smooth out the
staid, change has been have learned from the lessons recovery and minimize the
surprisingly constant. of the past. In paving new paths industry’s historical boom
for the future, the aim now is and bust cycle. This year,
That theme holds true over to change for the better. This our professionals also share
the past year as well. After goal is driving their ongoing their outlook for the future
hitting the bottom of the cycle, investments in innovation by identifying, in some cases,
prices for many commodities and digitization, inspiring their potential industry disruptors
have been slowly recovering, approach to the workforce of which may be on the horizon.
driven by Chinese government the future, manifesting in their Thank you sincerely for
stimulus and improved commitment to strengthen your years of support. We
demand in both developed and government and community look forward to your input
emerging economies. Coupled relations, and guiding their and feedback.
with the industry’s commitment efforts to repair their public
“As the mining industry’s value proposition is increasingly called into question,
mining companies are beginning to see that they cannot succeed into the future
unless they change the way they operate. This is about more than enhancing
efficiencies. It’s about re-establishing trust with stakeholders and collaborating
to devise better responses.”
Glenn Ives
Americas Mining Leader
Deloitte Canada
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1
Bringing
digital to life
Using data–driven
insights to drive value
In recent years, mining waste in the areas of execution,
companies have come to realize process, structure, and design.
that value, like beauty, may be Now, however, it is becoming
in the eyes of the beholder. clear that success for mining
Once measured by how well a companies isn’t truly about
company extracted resources, adopting the latest applications
the industry’s value proposition (apps) and technologies, which
may be shifting to how well a will continue to evolve. Instead,
company acts on information it’s about embedding digital
to optimize production, reduce thinking into the heart of their
costs, increase efficiency, and business strategy and practices
improve safety. In short, data— to transform the way corporate
and the ability to organize, decisions are made. To succeed
manage, and process it—is in this effort, miners need a
rapidly becoming a competitive clear vision of how the future
differentiator and may even digital mine might transform
spur new business models. core mining processes, the flow
of information, and supporting
The adoption of new back office processes.
technologies initiated this shift,
as miners recognized the power
of digital solutions to remove
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The future digital mine network that uses Internet of optimize their systems, from
Transitioning to the future digital Things (IoT) sensors to capture pit to customer. The aim is to
mine typically begins by focusing data in real time. create an information layer, or
on core mining processes with digital “nerve center”, that brings
the goal of automating physical Yet, the real value comes together data across the mining
operations and digitizing assets. from unlocking the insights value chain in multiple time
This includes the adoption of within this data. To do so, horizons to improve planning,
autonomous vehicles, drones, companies must rethink the control, and decision making
three-dimensional (3D) printing, way they generate and process (see figure 1).
and wearable technologies, all information. This involves
operated through a connected using data–driven analytics to
Historical Future
Reporting and analysis of historical Future insight derived from
data and insight gained from historical analysis to improve planning,
analysing trends, patterns and Digital mine nerve centre simulate the integrated supply chain,
opportunities for improvement Data driven insights drive improved and predict future outcomes,
learned from experience planning control and decision using analytics and AI tools
support across the mining
value chain
Source: Deloitte1
Digital in action
A major global miner in Australia moved its short–term production, planning, and control
activities from its mine sites to a new remote operations center. The operations center
implemented a supply chain visualization tool that provides an end–to–end (pit–to–port) view
of the company’s iron ore supply chain, showing key operational metrics in near-real-time,
permanently displayed on large screens, with data sourced from 16 disparate systems. This
was the first time the company could see its total supply chain in one place, assisting decision
making for the whole business.2
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Digital in action
A major global miner was looking to identify latent system
potential across its pit, rail, and port network. Data-driven
analysis generated over two million scenarios to identify
significant unrealized value in the system and tested each
one against operational reporting data to measure the
feasibility of the proposed changes (i.e., based on historical
performance, the analysis determined if it was possible to
process, move, or operate in each scenario). This determined
the most achievable scenario with the greatest potential
increase in value. The analysis highlighted that higher
production and greater shareholder return could be achieved
by adjusting traditional assumptions in mine and system
planning, all within a system that was previously considered
to be “at maximum capacity”. This rapid scenario-based
analysis is now being used to augment planning decisions on
an ongoing basis.3
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2
Overcoming
innovation
barriers
Charting a path towards
innovation maturity
Mining executives understand comes to innovation4. Part of
that innovation is necessary the reason is because mining
for the industry to transform. companies continue to face
This isn’t confined to just a number of organizational
technological innovation; it barriers to innovation.
includes the adoption of more
innovative approaches to Identifying the roadblocks
engaging with stakeholders, re– First, mining companies are
envisioning the future of work, traditionally averse to take on
and identifying the commodities new risks that may impact their
that will be in greatest demand cash flow or license to operate,
going forward. reducing their propensity
to pursue transformational
Despite the imperative, innovation. This is due in part
however, industry players to the way their processes are
cannot yet be considered truly structured. When innovation
mature innovators. Deloitte initiatives must compete for
research across Canada, capital against projects with
Australia, Africa, and Latin a shorter–term payback, the
America shows that the sector latter generally wins. This makes
still lacks systemic consistency sense in an age of intense
and strategic focus when it shareholder scrutiny.
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Innovation in action
In December 2016, Vale opened its largest iron ore mine, in Brazil. The Eliezer Batista S11D
Complex includes a mine, plant, railroad, and port logistics designed to vastly reduce the
company’s environmental impact. By locating in an already–deforested area outside the
Carajás National Forest, Vale reduced vegetation clearance in the forest by roughly 40
percent. The company also adopted a range of technological innovations that promise
long–term environmental benefits. For instance, rather than using trucks to transport
ore to the plant, Vale installed mobile excavators and crushers, a system that will reduce
fuel consumption by over 70 percent and reduce waste from used tires, oil filters, and
lubricants. Additionally, the ore is being processed using the moisture it naturally contains,
cutting down water consumption by 93 percent relative to the conventional process. The
company also anticipates saving 18,000 MW of electricity per year—enough to power roughly
10,000 homes.5
It just may not bode well for the potentially business–altering distrustful of collaboration
mining sector’s sustainability innovations that majors resist and hampers the juniors’ and
over the long term. adopting given the challenges service providers’ efforts to
associated with calculating co–create or co–invent in
Second, mining companies’ the lifetime value of new partnership with the majors,
propensity to favor short– innovations. despite the fact that this type of
term cash flow generation collaboration can accrue to the
often works to the detriment Third, mining companies benefit of shareholders. Mining
of creating longer–term often lack a clear vision to companies are also accustomed
net present value. As such, guide and enable longer–term to treating access to capital as
innovations that may reduce transformation. Without this a competitive advantage, which
costs over a product’s or vision (i.e., to become the was true when the industry was
process’s lifecycle are often lowest cost operator, minimize able to rely on high quality ore
dismissed if their initial the mining footprint, build a bodies and economies of scale
costs exceed current costs. fully automated mine, etc.), to drive down costs. Today,
Frequently, operators are they struggle to tackle and however, the technologies that
dis–incented from pursuing derive value from innovation. can make a marked impact
initiatives unlikely to deliver Innovation needs focus and on mining performance are
rapid returns. Procurement companies need to take their evolving rapidly and mostly
practices are often so focused vision and align their innovation outside the mining industry.
on lowering per unit costs efforts against a series of key As a result, capital is no longer
that there is an unconscious thematic areas. the constraint. Instead, the
bias against innovators whose companies most constrained
costs exceed the lowest cost Fourth, mining companies will be those unable to
competitors—even if they’re are historically inclined to collaborate with technology
delivering superior offerings. operate in isolation. Concern leaders and integrate
This has become a sticking point around intellectual property that technology into their
among service companies and (IP) rights and competitive operations.
juniors that have developed advantage makes companies
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A bold new vision Ecosystems and the role of in isolation. The research and
To some extent, these mining services in fostering development (R&D) groups at
innovation barriers exist greater collaboration most mining majors have been
because the design of mines A review of the innovation hollowed out, both in terms of
and processing plants hasn’t barriers in the mining industry human resources and budgets
changed in decades. Although reveals that collaboration is (see figure 2) since their apex
the equipment is more modern, frequently not within mining in the 1990s. As a result, the
miners from 50 years ago companies’ DNA. Why? In model for innovation has
would find little has changed some cases, organizations fundamentally shifted.
if they entered today’s mines, have not clearly defined which
a situation that certainly innovations to collaborate on Increasingly, original equipment
doesn’t hold true in other and which to retain in–house. In manufacturers (OEM) and
industries. That means that other cases, legal agreements supply companies have access
actual transformation requires between potential partners to more innovation capital
a new vision for the future, one become so complex that and resources and hence a
bold enough to drive a step their value is diluted—making challenge for the industry is to
change in performance and collaboration more difficult. figure out a way for miners and
enable more ambitious results The very structure of many the service sector to collaborate
from innovation. mining companies also makes more around innovation. This
it difficult to drive synergies will however require companies
The upshot is that mining across mine sites—resulting in to move beyond traditional
companies can only achieve siloed operating approaches procurement relationships.
true innovation maturity if rather than fostering a culture
they go beyond the basics of of collaboration.
operational improvements
to embrace innovation in a Critically, the nature and scope
broader sense and embed a of the industry’s challenges are
series of capabilities within making it less viable to operate
the organization.
“Although commodity prices have begun recovering, mining executives are still
feeling the sting of the recent downturn. As a result, they are collectively more
cautious than their peers likely were just five years ago. While this is spurring
ongoing focus on innovation, it also means their innovation efforts are increasingly
constrained by the need to demonstrate near–term returns. The catch is that,
unless you are trying new things, you are not learning, and if you are not learning,
you will fall behind.”
Andrew Swart
Global Mining Consulting Leader
Deloitte Canada
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R&D/Sales
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mining Consumer goods Technology
While collaboration is not the in collaborative development The general idea is reciprocity.
only approach to resolving projects, a process that If juniors, for example, work
the innovation conundrum reduces innovation costs on improving exploration
among mining companies, while empowering industry performance with a focus on
it can go a long way towards stakeholders. Collaborative high–quality deposits, they will
encouraging the steady stream ecosystems can even enable increase their value to majors.
of innovations needed to cross–border collaboration If majors work on improved
build sustainable business by uniting mining clusters recovery with a focus on lower–
models over time. Structured with similar challenges across grade deposits, they will reduce
deliberately, collaborative geographical boundaries. the pressure on juniors. That’s
ecosystems allow mining a win–win where everyone has
companies to reduce risk in the These types of ecosystems increased cash for investment,
innovation process. make it clear that innovation juniors to adopt/commercialize
does not require prohibitive innovations and develop assets,
Through open industry forums, budgets. As service companies and majors to buy juniors.
for instance, suppliers and and juniors have amply
other members of the mining demonstrated, it can often
ecosystem can work together be accomplished with
to resolve mining company constrained funds, particularly
issues. Similarly, events such as when external partnerships
“hackathons” encourage large are leveraged.
numbers of people to engage
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3
The future
of work
Re–envisioning talent
management in the digital age
As the digital mine becomes support the mobile workforce
a reality, the nature of work is across all platforms, and
poised to change dramatically, digital systems will simplify
at both the mine site and in work scheduling, while
the back office. In essence, the more robust cybersecurity
digital mine envisions that a programs mitigate the risks.
lean set of corporate processes These technologies will enable
will be augmented by RPA to core mining activities to be
automate repetitive human performed from locations that
activities, by autonomous can support a more diverse and
equipment to reduce labor inclusive workforce, including
intensity and enhance safety, primary caregivers, part–time
and by AI to support knowledge workers, and people with
workers. Fully integrated physical disabilities.
communications networks will
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Charting the implications As more work moves to shared as well. For instance, Worsley
While digital solutions will service centers and centers of Alumina—a South32 business—
augment human performance expertise, the available pool created gender–neutral drilling
by empowering people at of labor will also expand as equipment that enabled the
all levels with information to companies begin to employ deployment of its first all–
enhance their performance a mix of on–shore, off–shore, female drilling crew.9
and insights to drive better and robotic workers located
decisions, they will also cause anywhere in the world. The ramifications on work
upheaval. As manual jobs scheduling are similarly
are automated or replaced The implications are equally as significant. In the not too distant
by robotic processes, labor dramatic for frontline workers. future, mining organizations
dynamics in local communities With sensors, for instance, will be able to post available
will shift significantly. maintenance workers can work shifts online and enable
get alerts before equipment employees to use a mobile
On the positive side, this can breaks down, allowing them application to choose the shifts
translate into new employment to improve scheduling and they prefer to work. In this way,
opportunities as new roles increase equipment uptime. mining companies could attract
are created. It can deliver Similarly, shift supervisors a more diverse workforce,
significant safety benefits for can pinpoint the location of while giving frontline workers
the mining industry by literally equipment in real time, enabling greater freedom to manage
moving workers out of harm’s faster decision making and their careers.
way, and boost productivity by improving worker safety. With
reallocating those workers to interactive dashboards, mine On the other hand, greater
more productive occupations. It managers and supervisors reliance on digital solutions
can accommodate the realities can electronically interact with could result in job losses, raising
of shifting global demographics engineers with greater levels concerns about companies’
by enabling more women and of precision. And, by optimizing social responsibility towards
seniors to enter and remain in mine plans in real time, the their existing workforce. Given
the workforce. It can position whole nature of work and the imperative of mining
companies to achieve greater scheduling will change. companies to work in harmony
diversity by attracting workers with local communities, the
from historically under– Not only can work be industry’s shift to the future of
represented populations. redesigned, but equipment can work will need to be measured.
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Rather than eliminating jobs When it comes to hiring, this use of social tools that improve
wholesale, this will likely means mining companies will communication, collaboration,
translate into concerted require access to a broader and connectivity. Leaders will
efforts to retrain people to use array of systems experts also require the capacity to
technology or redesign jobs to operate and monitor align competency frameworks
to take better advantage of autonomous machines, and to account for new robotics,
people’s existing human skills. data analysts to turn growing cognitive, and AI requirements;
To this end, mining companies volumes of data into meaningful deploy employees replaced by
should think through how to insight. This quest for scarce these technologies; and reskill
reskill and retrain people to digital talent, including software employees to complement
learn technology and tools engineers and experts in these tools.
faster, and how to design the robotics and mechatronics, will
technology so it takes almost no put mining companies against Although these issues raise
training to use. more attractive industries in potentially uncomfortable
the attraction and retention of challenges, the future of work
A new kind of miner key talent. has arrived and companies
As automation becomes more that fail to embrace this
prevalent and technology As such, miners may have disruptive opportunity could
transforms the nature of to redefine roles, change find themselves at a competitive
work, organizations will also corporate cultures, attract and disadvantage in today’s
be forced to redesign certain train in new ways, and reimagine digital age.
jobs. At the mine site, manual traditional career paths. They
workers will need to learn will also need to rebrand to
how to integrate technology raise their appeal among the
into their job functions. Those millennial talent joining the
who are more comfortable workforce. This is particularly
working with technology will salient for organizations that
also need to train and mentor continue to run their back office
employees who have less digital functions in antiquated ways. A
experience. lack of innovation in these areas
will make it harder to attract
In the back office, the those people who will be in
convergence of IT and OT is greatest demand going forward.
driving the emergence of a new
kind of mining professional, one Leadership skills will also have
that combines traditional mining to evolve. As the workforce
skills with advanced technology becomes more diverse,
skills. Mining professionals now distributed, and connected,
need to be digitally literate, mining leaders will need the
along with having strong ability to foster and support an
problem solving skills and the inclusive culture, manage across
ability to think creatively. generations, and model the
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“Companies need to realize that
they will not be able to recreate
previous career paths as we head
into the future. Job descriptions
and the skills required are
changing wholesale, mandating a
complete re–conception of the way
in which miners must attract and
retain talent.”
Ian Sanders
Mining Leader
Deloitte Australia
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The image
of mining
Changing public, employee,
and customer perceptions
Although the sector has taken and engage in dubious
significant strides to improve practices abroad.
the image of mining in recent
years, in some cases, it is still As mining companies know
operating under a legacy of from harsh experience, negative
weak environmental practices, perceptions can do more than
fractious community relations, damage reputations and affect
stock price underperformance stock prices. They can also spill
relative to other sectors, over into community protests
and a historic lack of and violence, and result in
workforce diversity. the loss of a social license
to operate.
Despite the significant
contribution of the mining In a world increasingly
sector to the world’s economy, influenced by round the clock
the industry’s reputation news cycles and opinions aired
remains tarnished in many in the court of social media, this
countries due to perceptions type of backlash is only bound
that mining companies to spiral. This mandates mining
contribute to environmental companies to take proactive
damage, cause a negative steps to address, and change,
impact to the community, their reputations.
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“If mining companies truly hope to repair their image, they must do more than
change their messaging. They must also fundamentally change their behaviors
around the way they mine how they engage with communities, attract talent,
and deliver on their promises.”
James Ferguson
Global Mining Tax Leader
Deloitte UK
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Reimagining reputations
When the ePrix, the electric vehicle version of the Grand Prix, makes its debut in Santiago in
2018, it will be sponsored by Antofagasta Minerals. The company’s decision to put its name
on this first edition of the all–electric race was not simply a PR exercise. In fact, its aim was
to bring attention to the company’s commitment to help contribute to a cleaner world by
reducing carbon emissions. Antofagasta is demonstrating this commitment in myriad ways,
not least by using renewable sources, including wind and solar, to generate 45 percent of its
power at its Los Pelambres mine.17
Creating a new image begin offering products over Mamba ores with higher
with customers which they can exercise more phosphorous Brockman
In addition to rebuilding control, particularly relative to ore, Rio Tinto created a
trust externally and among pricing. China’s new modern premium product to meet
employees, some companies steel furnaces, for example, the unique demands of steel
are trying to reposition are configured to run on mill customers. Since its
themselves in the eyes of their high quality iron ore and introduction into the market
customers by demonstrating met coal, encouraging steel roughly one decade ago, the
their capacity to deliver mills to favor higher grade Pilbara blend has become
greater value. As the industry iron ore. This is true across the world’s most traded iron
works to articulate its value commodities. China’s drive to ore product.18
proposition to shareholders, reduce emissions and improve
there’s been a collective soul the environmental footprint As mining companies continue
searching that has led, in some of individual processes will to remake themselves from
cases, to the development of underpin demand for higher the inside out, leaders will
differentiated, higher margin, quality raw materials. Similarly, likely focus more diligently on
proprietary products tailored India is structurally short of high understanding customer needs
to meet the needs of certain quality coal reserves. and developing boutique or
customer segments. niche products to meet them—
Some companies have already reaping the rewards of both
With economies moving taken steps to meet this improved customer satisfaction
along the urbanization demand by creating more and higher margins.
curve and demanding more differentiated products. Rio
sophisticated products, Tinto’s Pilbara blend is a case
miners may increasingly in point. By blending Marra
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5
Transforming
stakeholder
relationships
The growing need to achieve
measurable social outcomes
To expand local employment Mounting volatility
opportunities, increase tax These demands are taking
revenues, and meet increasing various forms. In Russia, for
community demands for instance, community concerns
improved infrastructure around coal dust pollution may
and greater environmental result in a ban on the use of
protection, many governments grabbing cranes, which are used
of resource–rich countries by ports to load more than 50
continue to put pressure percent of Russia’s seaborne
on the mining industry. As a exports. If passed, these
result, mining companies in measures could see Russian
many jurisdictions still face coal exports fall by up to 80
considerable obstacles to million tons, dropping back to
investment, ranging from 2007 levels.19
high royalty rates, permitting
challenges, and uncertain tax
rules to growing requirements
for local beneficiation.
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In Colombia, the mining industry New approaches the mining industry remains a
has been beset not only by Although many of these major employer. Historically,
protests, road blockades, regulatory risks can be traced to the contract between mines
and new tax measures, but politically volatile jurisdictions, and communities has revolved
also by mining bans that have there may also be a secondary around job creation. As mines
forced some major miners underlying cause. Some of move towards more digital
to halt operations in certain the social initiatives mining operations, however, the basis
municipalities.20 El Salvador companies have undertaken in of this social contract will
went one step further, banning the past have failed to deliver shift. To prevent unrest and
mining entirely.21 on their intended results. mitigate backlash, companies
Increasingly, the industry will need to leverage the
In Tanzania, Acacia Mining was is coming to realize that its digital infrastructure on behalf
hit by a US$190 billion fine, traditional approaches to of communities, potentially
US$40 billion in unpaid taxes community and government using it to create new
plus an additional US$150 relations must change. education models, improve
billion in interest and penalties, communication, develop
prompting the company to This imperative will only suppliers, or deliver other
reduce its operational activity heighten in the digital age. digitally–enabled services.
in the country.22 The total bill Despite the benefits that This will require companies
represents roughly 40 times automation, robotics, and AI to be more creative in
Acacia’s 2016 revenues and deliver, their effect on local uncovering the real needs of
comes in at four times the size employment is bound to these communities.
of Tanzania’s GDP.23 spark government concern,
particularly in regions where
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Andrew Lane
Mining Leader
Deloitte Africa
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6
Water
management
Finding sustainable solutions
to a pressing issue
With each passing year, water expected to worsen. Currently,
has become a more critical over 1.7 billion people live in
issue for the mining sector. As river basins where water use
ore grades decline, more water exceeds recharge and, by 2050
is needed to extract the same at least one in four people
amount of ore pushing up water are likely to live in a country
requirements in the industry. At affected by chronic or recurring
the same time, water demand freshwater shortages.27
is rising globally, driven by
population growth, industrial As concerns around water
development, expansion availability grow, communities
of irrigated agriculture, and environmental groups
and increases in per capita are turning the spotlight on
water consumption. water–intensive industries,
including mining. In fact, since
Critically, this growing demand 2000, roughly 58 percent
is not offset by available supply. of the mining cases lodged
According to the United Nations with the World Bank Group’s
(UN), water scarcity now Compliance Officer have related
affects more than 40 percent to water issues.28
of the global population and is
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Karla Velásquez
Mining Leader
Deloitte Peru
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7
Changing
shareholder
expectations
Investors demand greater
accountability
For decades, mining company This more rigorous oversight
behavior largely hinged on is manifesting in a number
prevailing market realities. of ways. In some cases,
While lower commodity shareholders are making it
prices traditionally heralded clear that they expect a return
retrenchment, cost cutting, of value as corporate fortunes
and risk aversion, a rising price rise—in the form of increased
environment often signaled dividends, share buybacks,
a period of over–spending, and a higher total return to
sometimes to the detriment shareholders.
of long–term corporate
value. So with commodity
prices on the uptick, it’s no
surprise that shareholders
and institutional investors are
carefully monitoring the sector
to assess if companies are in
danger of once again tipping
towards excess.
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In other cases, shareholders mergers and acquisitions (M&A), in the short term, it does raise
are becoming more vocal by in light of the fact that average concerns around potential
engaging in activism in a bid to total shareholder returns from supply shortages. Which begs
influence operational decisions. gold mining investments were the question, is the traditional
In the summer of 2017, for negative 65 percent since 2010 corporate governance model
instance, Elliott Advisors began during a time when the gold based on shareholder returns
campaigning for changes to price rose by 20 percent.38 appropriate for a cyclical sector
BHP’s strategy and board, like mining? Some say no.
pointing to missteps that saw In some jurisdictions, activist
the company’s US$30 billion shareholders have also begun A recent Harvard Business
investments in US shale fall voting against the executive review article39 pointed out that
in value to US$6.5 billion.35 In remuneration reports the maximization of shareholder
an attempt to influence BHP presented at the annual general value only became a goal for
to sell its US shale business, meeting. This is not necessarily shareholders and boards fairly
the activist fund increased its because they are opposed to recently. The concept arises
stake in BHP to an estimated the proposed remuneration, but from the “agency theory”, which
five percent, giving it the as a way to force reconstitution posits that shareholders own
right to call an extraordinary of the board of directors. the company and that their
general meeting or table a primary objective is to maximize
shareholder resolution.36 The dangers of their own economic returns.
short–termism The issue with this assumption
Similar activism appears As shareholder expectations is that shareholders have no
alive and well among grow, mining companies legal duty to protect or serve
smaller companies too. At have begun focusing on re– the companies they invest
Petropavlovsk, a London–listed establishing their credibility in. This gives certain types of
gold miner, the chairman in the investor community shareholders the power to
was recently voted off the and with analysts. Rather force the change of a company’s
board following shareholder than pursuing mega–mergers board or management, only to
opposition.37 And in September or building new mines, sell out as soon as the share
2017, New York–based hedge for instance, many are price rises. The article’s authors
fund manager Paulson & Co exercising higher degrees argue that this form of activism
called for the world’s biggest of fiscal discipline. is less about value creation and
investors in gold mining stocks more about value transfer.
to form a coalition to speak out Of course, while this
on issues such as executive conservatism can help to
pay, board constitution, and bolster shareholder returns
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Ira M. Millstein, founding Instead of buying into the While this argument should not
chair of the Ira M. Millstein traditional model of corporate absolve mining companies from
Center for Global Markets governance, it may make being called to task on their
and Corporate Ownership at better sense to acknowledge poor track records, it can help
Columbia Law School, author that corporations need to counter the negative effects
of The Activist Director, and create value for multiple often associated with an overly
Senior Partner at international constituencies—including short–term investor outlook—
law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges customers, employees, which include the danger
LLP, holds a similar view. suppliers, and communities— of overlooking innovation,
At a recent presentation in not just for shareholders. exploration, and sustainable
Toronto, he noted the dilemma Their performance measures growth in favor of boosting
directors face in responding to should consequently reflect quarterly share prices. Boards
shareholder expectations, given these varied objectives. This that successfully steer the
the divergent expectations would free up boards to focus market’s focus towards long–
of long–term shareholders, more on long–term strategies, term strategy can help limit
short–term shareholders, succession planning, and the effects of focusing on the
hedge funds, mutual funds, leadership development, while short term.
and institutional investors. In linking executive compensation
his opinion, it is incumbent on to broader corporate goals—
directors to ensure that activist including those related to good
shareholders actually represent corporate citizenship and
the interests of all shareholders ethical behavior.
before meeting their demands.
Ira Millstein
Founding chair of the Ira M. Millstein Center for Global Markets and
Corporate Ownership at Columbia Law School, author of The Activist
Director, and Senior Partner at international law firm Weil, Gotshal &
Manges LLP
42
“Responding to rising shareholder
expectations requires companies
to walk a fine line. While it is
important to avoid decisions that
can result in an erosion of value,
shifting corporate direction to
meet shareholder demand for
short–term returns can work to
the long–term detriment of
the company.”
Tim Biggs
Mining Leader
Deloitte UK
43
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06
44
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thetrends 2017
trends 2018
45
8
Reserve
replacement
woes
Changing public, employee,
and customer perceptions
Thanks to intense cost cutting, Ongoing grade decline,
a focus on fundamentals, and resource depletion, and supply
a commitment to portfolio disruptions are resulting in a
simplification, the fortunes of similar trend for copper, which
many mining companies are on is expected to fall into a deficit
the rebound. Yet this tentative by 2018.43
turnaround cannot remedy
the supply constraints that For the first eight months
currently plague the industry. of 2017, silver production
had fallen by a significant 20
For the 10 years prior to 2016, percent in Chile and 19 percent
the amount of gold discovered in Australia,44 while nickel
declined by 85 percent, while entered its first material deficit
reserves have fallen by 40 since 2010.45 Recent under
percent since 2011,41 prompting investment in zinc also pushed
Randgold Resources’ CEO that commodity’s inventories to
to warn that, by 2020, the their lowest levels since 2007.46
industry will face a dramatic
supply shortage.42
46
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64%
6% 6.25% 5%
4.15% 3.40% 3.75%
0.56%
Cobalt supply shortages are while currently on the to exploit new resources. At
also often in the news, with upswing, have declined sharply the same time, they remain
companies struggling to find since their peak in 2012 (see extremely hesitant to engage
conflict–free sources of the figure 4). Exploration budgets in acquisitions to feed the
metal outside of the Democratic are also down (see figure 5). exploration pipeline.
Republic of the Congo (DRC),
where 60 percent of the world’s Yet these are not the only Competitive pressures may
current supply is located48 factors contributing to supply also play a role in limiting future
(see figure 3). shortages. Still burdened with supply. In recent years, for
high debt loads and rising price/ instance, the three major iron
Constrained supply earnings (P/E) multiples, mining ore suppliers have improved
Some of the reasons for this companies are struggling to efficiencies to such an extent
reserve depletion are well free up the exploration and that new suppliers are being
known. Capital expenditures, development budgets required priced out of the market.
0 0 0
1997
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1013
2014
2015
2016
1998
1999
2003
2020E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2016
2014
2015
2012
2013
2010
2011
2008
2009
2005
2006
2007
Source: Barclays European Metals & Mining report, released Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
in March 2017.
47
Tracking the trends 2018
Arguably, this trend could 15 percent of Polyus, Russia’s for instance, Goldcorp and
extend to other commodities, largest gold producer—marking Barrick Gold entered a 50/50
impelling major players to drive the first big Chinese investment joint venture to work together
efficiencies and ensure low in Russia’s mining industry.50 to develop several gold mines
cost production by acquiring in Chile’s Maricunga belt.51 For
competitors. If niche players However, despite this activity, their parts, both Newcrest
begin to dominate certain mining companies are eager Mining and AngloGold Ashanti
market segments, the future to avoid the losses they both teamed up with junior
of diversified miners could be experienced in the past, when explorers to expand their
called into question. industry M&A often proved to exploration pipelines.52
be value destructive. As a result,
Too little, too late? they are now making smaller, Yet concern remains that these
Admittedly, the transactional more conservative investments measures may be too little, too
environment is gaining steam, accretive to shareholder value late. Without a concerted focus
with some M&A returning. rather than engaging in major on reserve replacement—and
Significantly, Chinese investment transactions and going full tilt the dedication of significant
in key commodities appears towards building new mines. investment funds—the danger
to be resurging. In April 2017, They are pursuing earlier stage of falling into a historical boom
Shandong Gold acquired a 50 exploration projects; looking and bust mentality remains real.
percent stake in Barrick Gold’s for grassroots investments
Veladero mine in Argentina in a rather than engaging in major
transaction valued at just under takeovers; and entering joint
US$1 billion.49 This was followed ventures to uncover new
by a June 2017 deal involving deposits and share the costs
a consortium led by Fosun, and risks of new project
which agreed to acquire up to development. In March 2017,
48
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Kevin Xu
Mining Leader
Deloitte China
49
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06
50
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trends 2018
51
9
Realigning
mining boards
New skillsets are needed to
help drive transformation
There is little doubt that the These drivers and more make
mining sector is in the midst of it clear that companies will
a transformation. To transition need to make substantive
to the mine of the future, cultural shifts.
companies must embrace the
full power of digitization and Some companies have already
innovation and attract a new taken steps in this direction by
brand of talent. Heightened engaging in cross–functional
scrutiny from governments, collaboration, seeking out best
communities, investors, practices from other industries,
and other key stakeholders strengthening their executive
mandates new forms of teams, and setting targets
cooperation and collaboration. to achieve greater diversity
To repair broken relationships and inclusion.
and tarnished reputations,
miners must also explore ways
to operate more sustainably.
52
Tracking the trends 2018
To cement these changes, Critically, boards mired in literacy so they can ask the
however, mining companies will old ways of thinking will right questions about the
also need to ensure that their increasingly struggle to fulfil company’s technological
boards are properly constituted this mandate. Although past transformation and understand
to support transformation. experience can help inform the answers they receive. They
From a governance perspective, opinions, it can also inhibit will need to be well–versed
boards can only help drive the directors from questioning in new compensation and
changes the industry needs if their current assumptions— incentive structures so they
they are comfortable embracing leading to a form of cognitive can effectively guide and review
new operational realities— bias that prevents them from executive performance. They
including the need to operate considering non–traditional must learn about prevalent
in an ecosystem, transform solutions. Low levels of diversity talent constraints so they
stakeholder relationships, and among mining board members can help develop effective
weigh the pros and cons of only complicate the issue by succession plans. They should
novel business models. This is limiting their ability to uncover understand how to assess
especially critical as shareholder outside views or challenge their the effectiveness of corporate
activism ramps up, companies habitual thought processes. In cybersecurity strategies,
are held to higher standards essence, diverse perspectives particularly as cyber breaches
of corporate governance, and are necessary if mining boards become more prevalent. They
technological disruption alters are to effectively challenge also need to understand how
industry dynamics. organizational assumptions, to exert greater governance
assess the validity of new ways and oversight over the major
Rising expectations of thinking, and help determine construction projects that
While there was a time when if the organization is taking will increasingly be required
directors were predominantly on too much risk, or perhaps as companies work to
focused on oversight, this not enough. replace reserves.
notion is also shifting. Today,
directors are increasingly New skillsets, broader
expected to weigh in on outlooks
corporate strategy, digital To help evaluate the strategic
disruption, talent management, decisions mining executives
and emerging risk factors. In must make to transform
fact, studies show that the operations, it is becoming
best boards go beyond their clear that board members will
fiduciary responsibilities to require different skillsets. While
take a more active role in they may not need to be digital
constructively challenging the experts, directors will have to
executive team.55 improve their technological
53
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Amy Winsor
Mining & Minerals Consulting Leader
Deloitte US
54
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05
55
10
Commodities
of the future
Predicting tomorrow’s
disruptors
Given how inextricably The battery
socioeconomic trends link to As economies mature and
commodity demand, mining technological advancement
executives have long had to progresses, mining companies
double as futurists. To assess are seeking greater exposure to
which commodities to invest later–stage commodities such
in, and which to divest, miners as tech metals and boutique
need to keep their fingers minerals. One of the most
on the pulse of fluctuating frequently cited examples
consumer demands, global these days is lithium, an
demographic and economic integral component of battery
shifts, and the effects of technology. In anticipation
environmental change. In recent of the exponential growth
years, they have also had to of electric vehicles (EVs) and
track a rapidly–evolving trend, energy storage systems, the
the emergence and adoption of global battery supply chain
new technologies. is mobilizing.
56
Tracking the trends 2018
By 2030, for instance, Western Australian and Canada, comes from the DRC.67 This
members of the Electric 70 percent of the world’s may explain why there are
Vehicle Initiative (Canada, known lithium reserves are in few dedicated producers.
China, France, Germany, Japan, Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, In fact, roughly 95 percent
the Netherlands, Norway, the so–called lithium triangle.62 of cobalt is produced as a
Sweden, the UK, and the US) While a number of companies by–product (largely of nickel
plan to increase the market are focused on that region, or copper),68 so when those
share for EVs in their countries several lithium projects have markets deteriorate, cobalt
to 30 percent.57 According faced delays due to technical production falls.
to the International Energy problems, while lead times for
Association, 14 countries have new capacity can be four to On the plus side, both nickel
already announced quantitative five years. This environment and copper are re–inventing
targets for EV adoption, has created a very positive themselves as commodities
supported by subsidies dynamic for lithium prices, of the future as well. EVs
and significant investment which rose by over 70 percent are expected to contain
in charging infrastructure. between November 2016 and four times as much copper
Collectively, this is expected to November 2017.63 as combustion–powered
result in up to 20 million EVs on engines,69 driving analysts to
the road by 2020.58 Graphite is another commodity predict that the market will slip
currently in the spotlight. Like from a surplus into a deficit
Tesla alone, at its Nevada lithium, its demand is linked of 130kt by 2018.70 Similarly,
Gigafactory, is already to battery power and storage, while nickel laterites (nickel
producing more battery driving analysts to predict that pig iron and ferronickel) make
capacity than in any one single demand for battery-grade up the majority of today’s
plant elsewhere in the world, graphite will triple by 2020.64 production and will likely remain
with an annual capacity of 35 While China supplied just under in oversupply, demand for nickel
gigawatt–hours (GWh).59 Yet, 70 percent of the graphite sulfides (battery–grade nickel) is
surprisingly, that amount may used in 2016,65 rising costs, expected to increase 50 percent
be overshadowed by China, grade depletion, and stricter to three million metric tons
which plans to build additional environmental regulations may by 2030.71
factories by 2021 with the see the country’s share of the
capacity to produce more than market drop. The impact of these trends
120 GWh per year.60 on the mining industry can
For its part, cobalt—yet another be transformative.
In light of these factors, most integral component of battery
analysts predict that global technology—is facing a global
demand for lithium will double supply deficit that may grow
or even triple by 2030.61 The from 885 tons in 2018 to 5,340
key now will be meeting that tons in 2020.66 To complicate
demand. Although supply matters, almost 70 percent
of lithium is growing in both of the world’s cobalt supply
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58
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59
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06
60
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61
02
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In 2009, when we first launched weathered years of market create new operational
this mining report, the global volatility have taken the lessons cultures, they are still battling
financial crisis was in full of the past to heart. Rather than against a tide of negative
swing. As commodity prices engaging in age old responses public perception, contentious
plummeted, many mining with the expectation of different stakeholder relationships, and
companies found themselves results, they have come to increasingly vocal shareholder
operating at the brink of a loss, understand that new times demands. Their test now will
driving much of the sector call for reinvented measures. be maintaining the resolve
into full retrenchment mode. In short, they are not simply to back up their words with
As a result, executives began reacting to external pressures. consistent, unwavering, and
refocusing on fundamentals Instead, they are adopting determined action.
such as cost containment, risk transformative strategies
management, and supply chain designed to help them change
efficiency. In essence, they were for the better.
repeating the acts so symbolic
of previous down cycles. Profound change takes time.
Despite mining companies’
Over the past decade, however, quest to use data as a
the mining industry has radically differentiator, enhance
transformed itself. Those innovation maturity, position
companies that successfully for the future of work, and
“Miners have finally realized that they cannot be islands unto themselves.
To effect lasting change, they must partner with each other to reduce
project risk, collaborate with external vendors to reconceive how they
operate, work more closely with governments to help inform policy,
and strengthen relationships with local community stakeholders.”
Rajeev Chopra
Global Leader – Energy & Resources
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
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Global contacts
Global Leader, Mining Global Leader, Energy & Resources
Phil Hopwood Rajeev Chopra
+1 416 601 6063 +44 20 7007 2933
pjhopwood@deloitte.ca rchopra@deloitte.co.uk
Region/Country contacts
64
Poland United Arab Emirates
Zbig Majtyka Salam Awawdeh
+48 32 508 0333 +971 4 376 8888
zmajtyka@deloittece.com SAwawdeh@deloitte.com
Turkey
Uygar Yörük
+90 312 295 4700
uyoruk@deloitte.com
65
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68
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