TO: Ben McAdams for Congress

FROM: The Mellman Group

DATE: March 15, 2018
RE: McAdams Is Strongly Positioned In UT-04
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 voters representing the likely November 2018 electorate in Utah’s 4th
Congressional District. Interviews were conducted by telephone February 27 – March 4, 2018, using a registration-based
sample of cellphones and landlines. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9 percentage points at a 95% level of
confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

With the incumbent congresswoman holding a net-negative job rating, with President Trump a
burden and with Mayor McAdams bringing popularity and a track record of success, Utah’s 4th
Congressional District is highly competitive and McAdams is strongly positioned to win.

At the outset of the survey, McAdams trails by less than the margin of error. After voters hear
the positive messages being articulated by both candidates, McAdams takes a narrow lead over
Congresswoman Mia Love.

THE RACE BEGINS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR

The initial head-to-head,

before voters are provided McAdams Makes Gains And Takes The Lead
with any information, puts Once Voters Learn More
incumbent Mia Love at 43%,
100%
to 40% for Mayor McAdams
McAdams v Love Vote
— a near tie. This result is
80%
more impressive given the
fact that the Congresswoman -3 +3
60%
is now much better known
46%
than the Mayor (91% hard 40%
43% 43%
40%
name ID for Love, to only
60% for McAdams). Thus,
McAdams has much more
20%
McAdams Love McAdams Love
room for growth as voters
0%
learn more about him.
Initial Post-Message

Indeed, after voters are read

brief paragraphs summarizing both McAdams’ and Love’s messagesi, McAdams jumps to a
slight lead (46% McAdams, 43% Love).

1023 31st Street, NW  5th Floor  Washington, DC 20007

ph 202-625-0370  info@mellmangroup.com
 The Mellman Group (March 2018)
LOVE HAS A LUKEWARM IMAGE, WHILE MCADAMS IS HIGHLY REGARDED

Mayor McAdams scores considerably better than Congresswoman Love on both key measures
of popularity: favorability and job performance.

McAdams’ favorability ratings are positive by a large 33-point margin (46% favorable to 13%
unfavorable) – an unusually strong favorability ratio in contemporary politics. Love, by
contrast, is net-favorable by a much smaller 12-point margin (52% favorable to 40%
unfavorable).

Mayor McAdams holds a decidedly positive job performance rating as well, with 47% giving
him a positive appraisal, against 31% negative (net +16). Meanwhile Love is underwater, with
43% giving her a positive job rating and 49% offering a negative evaluation (net –6).

WASHINGTON IS A PROBLEM FOR LOVE

In a district Trump won by 7 points (while getting only 39% of the vote), 68% now offer
negative assessments of
his performance in office,
while a meager 31% are Washington Is A Problem For Love
positive.
How well does the phrase
Love’s attempts to give the President Trump “supports Donald Trump too much”
100% Job Approval 100% describe Mia Love?
impression of distance
between herself and
80% -37 80%
Trump don’t seem to be 68%
convincing many people. +13
60% 60%
By a 13-point margin,
voters say she “supports 42%
40% 40%
Donald Trump too much” 31% 29%
— 42% say that phrase 20% 20%
describes her, while only 46% 26%
13% 12%
29% say it doesn’t. 0%
excellent poor
0%
very well not at all
Positive Negative Describes Doesn’t Describe

CONCLUSION

With the resources to communicate his message, McAdams is strongly positioned to win.

i
Mia Love, a Republican, currently represents Utah’s Fourth District in Congress. As the mayor of Saratoga Springs she brought coalitions
together to balance budgets, cut wasteful spending, and keep taxes low. She says Congress needs tough, consistent, tested leaders who put the
American people first. Love favors increased citizen liberties, limited government, and limited restraints on business. In Congress she’s
sponsored 124 bills to tackle this nation’s problems, and fights for conservative principles. She believes the best thing a Congresswoman can
do is to urge the federal government to stay out of the way of business and out of the lives of citizens.
Ben McAdams, a Democrat, is Mayor of Salt Lake County. A seventh-generation Utahn, McAdams was raised in West Bountiful in a family
of eight. Today Ben and his wife Julie and four kids live in Salt Lake and are active in their church and ward. In the legislature and as mayor,
he brought Republicans and Democrats together to address homelessness, form partnerships with the private sector to create jobs and
improve local education—all while balancing the budget and keeping down taxes. Mayor McAdams will take these Utah values to
Washington where he’ll put country first, put party aside and do what’s right for Utah and the nation.