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• Voters are clearly dissatisfied with their own Congressional representatives; 55% think it
is time to elect someone new. Even more feel that way about members of Congress
overall.
• Republicans have the edge in engagement: they are more enthusiastic about voting this
year than Democrats are, and are paying more attention to the campaign. The poll finds
frustration with government among Republican voters: a third say they are angry with
Washington.
• But frustration with Congress doesn't mean the Republicans have come into favor: The
Republican party is viewed less favorably than the Democratic party (and less favorably
than it was in 1994), approval of Congressional Republicans is low, and the Democratic
Party is viewed as better at helping the middle class and creating jobs.
• Voters are mixed as to the impact the President will have on their vote: just under half
say he will not be a factor, and the rest are divided as to whether theirs will be a vote for
or against him.
The discontent Americans have expressed for months about the economy and the direction of
the country is reflected in voters’ dissatisfaction with incumbents: just 34% of voters say their
own member of Congress deserves re-election, while more than half -- the highest percentage
ever recorded in this poll -- say it is time to give someone new a chance.
Voters are even harsher when asked about most members of Congress: just 12% think they
deserve re-election, while 78% think it’s time to give new people a chance. The percentage that
supports electing new people now matches the percentage that felt that way in 1994, when the
Republicans won control of Congress.
Fewer Republicans than Democrats think either their own Congressperson or most members of
Congress should be re-elected.
And approval of Congress remains low – only 21% approve of the job Congress is doing, while
70% disapprove. Ratings of Congress are lower today than at this point in the midterm election
cycles in both 2006, when the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress, and in 1994,
when Republicans made historic gains.
Both parties in Congress get poor ratings from the American public. 58% disapprove of the job
Democrats in Congress are doing; that number rises to 68% for the Republicans in Congress.
Parties in Congress
Democrats Republicans
Approve 30% 20%
Disapprove 58 68
Overall, just under half of likely voters (47%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about
voting in this election, but enthusiasm is more widespread among Republicans than it is among
other voters. A 58% majority of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than
usual. 47% of Democrats feel more enthusiastic, while enthusiasm is even lower among
independents.
In addition, more Republican voters than Democratic voters are paying a lot of attention to the
midterm campaigns. 45% of Republicans are doing so, compared to 34% of Democrats and
40% of independents.
If the midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, Republicans
would hold a small lead in a national vote. 40% of likely voters say they would support the
Republican candidate, while slightly fewer -- 38% -- would support the Democrat. But at this
point in the election season, there is room for change, as many voters remain open-minded: one
in five say they don’t know who they would vote for or it depends.
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2010 Congressional Vote
(Among likely voters)
Republican 40%
Democrat 38
Don’t know/depends 19
Each party retains most of their partisan supporters: 80% of Republican voters say they would
vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and 79% of Democrats would support the
Democrat.
Just 37% of independents are enthusiastic about voting this year, and their vote choice reflects
that. While more choose the Republican candidate over the Democrat, 33% say that if the
election were held today, they don’t know for whom they would vote. These voters are nearly
three times as likely as Republicans or Democrats to say they are undecided.
Control of Congress is not a key element in vote choice for nearly half of voters, who say their
vote will be about something else. That said, slightly more voters say their vote will be to help
Democrats retain control of Congress (27%) than to help Republicans gain control (23%).
In 2006, by about two to one voters said their vote was to help Democrats gain control.
President Obama
President Obama’s influence on the midterm elections right now seems mixed. While 45% of
registered voters say he will not be a factor in their vote, 25% say theirs will be a vote against him, and
23% say their vote will be in support of the President. His approval rating in this poll is 45% among all
Americans.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, more Republicans say theirs will be a vote against President Obama, while
more Democrats say theirs will be a vote in support of him.
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Heading into previous midterm elections, fewer voters said their vote would be one in support of the
President (with the exception of 1986). The anti-Bush vote in 2006 was larger than the anti-Obama
vote is now.
57% of voters – including most Republicans, Democrats, and independents – say that a
candidate’s stance on the stimulus package would not affect their vote. One in five say if a
candidate supported the stimulus package it would make them more likely to vote for that
candidate, but about as many say it would make them less likely.
A 41% plurality says that a candidate’s vote on health care reform wouldn’t impact their vote
either. Again, those who say it would have an effect are divided as to what that impact will be.
Earmarks
Incumbents may remind voters during election season about the projects they bring to their
state. Just under half of voters say they don’t know whether their own representative brings in
money and projects to their state. 29% thinks he or she does do that, while 23% thinks he or
she does not.
Voter Discontent
Less than fifty days before the midterm elections, 74% of voters are dissatisfied with the way
things are going in Washington, including 22% who say they are angry. Republicans and Tea
Party supporters are more likely than Democrats and independents to express anger toward
Washington.
Among voters who feel angry, most say they will vote for the Republican candidate for Congress
in November.
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These angry voters volunteer partisan politics and gridlock (17%) as the top reason for their
anger. 12% volunteer politicians not representing the people, 12% mention the economy and
unemployment, and another 9% cite government spending or the deficit.
The notion of smaller government appears to be resonating with some voters. 53% say they
prefer a smaller government providing fewer services, while 34% want a bigger government
providing more services.
Amid disapproval of the major political parties, the percentage of Americans who think the
country needs a third party to compete with the Republicans and Democrats has risen 8 points
from this past spring. 54% say the country needs a third party, similar to the levels seen in the
mid-nineties. Tea Partiers are just as likely as all Americans to think the nation needs a third
party – 56% of them think that.
Despite their rallies and some victories in primary races this year, 47% of registered voters say
they are undecided or haven’t heard enough about the Tea Party movement to have an opinion.
Among those with an opinion, more view the movement unfavorably than favorably.
For most voters, a candidate’s affiliation with the Tea Party movement is not necessarily viewed
as an asset. Twice as many voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate that
aligned themselves with the Tea Party rather than more likely. Half say it would make no
difference.
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Vote Impact of Candidate’s Affiliation with Tea Party
(Among registered voters)
More likely 14%
Less likely 28
No difference 49
Still, Tea Party supporters themselves are enthusiastic about voting this November. 64% say
they are more enthusiastic than in previous congressional elections. Tea Partiers are also
paying attention to the election campaign. Eight in 10 are paying at least some attention,
including 44% who are paying a lot of attention.
Although a majority of Tea Partiers say the country needs a third party, nearly eight in 10 say
they’ll be casting their ballot for Republican candidates for Congress.
In this poll, 19% of Americans say they support the Tea Party movement. 84% of them say they
are registered to vote, and 88% say they will definitely vote this November. Most (73%) are
conservative. 54% of Tea Party supporters identify themselves as Republicans, and 38% say
they are independents. Less than one in ten says they are Democrats.
Neither party is viewed positively by a majority of Americans, but more have a positive opinion
of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. Favorable opinions of the Republican Party
have dropped in recent years, and are nearly the reverse of what they were in 1994, just before
the Republican takeover of Congress.
Republican Party
Favorable 34% 41 51% 52%
Unfavorable 56 52 41 38
Voters in this poll were asked which of the two parties – the Democrats or Republicans -- is
better at handling a variety of issues. Democratic strengths include creating jobs, helping the
middle class and small businesses, and having ideas for solving the country’s problems.
Republican Party strengths include reducing the deficit and handling terrorism. Both parties are
about even on handling immigration.
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Which Party is Better at …?
(Among registered voters)
Republican Democratic
Helping middle class 33% 55
Helping small businesses 41% 49
Creating new jobs 38% 44
Better ideas for national problems 33% 40
Looking Ahead?
Americans were asked what they expected to happen if Republicans take control of Congress.
44% said they would expect Republicans to try to return to the economic policies of George W.
Bush. 72% expect Republicans would try to repeal the health care reform legislation, and 60%
expect they would try to make the tax cuts for higher income households permanent.
Americans’ expectations for their own finances aren’t much affected by expectations for the
outcome of the elections. 59% think their own financial situation will be no different if
Republicans win control of Congress, and 57% expect no difference if Democrats retain control.
________________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 990 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone
September 10-14, 2010. Phone numbers were dialed from random digit dial samples of both standard
land-line and cell phones. 881 interviews were conducted among registered voters. The error due to
sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points.
This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL
The 2010 Midterm Elections
September 10-14, 2010
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind Aug10b
% % % % %
Approve 21 9 29 20 22
Disapprove 70 83 61 71 71
DK/NA 9 8 10 9 7
q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their
job?
Approve 30 9 56 21
Disapprove 58 85 31 66
DK/NA 12 6 13 13
q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their
job?
Approve 20 39 15 13
Disapprove 68 49 75 75
DK/NA 12 12 10 12
q13 How likely is it that you will vote in the 2010 election for Congress in November —
would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely
not vote in the election for Congress?
q14 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2010 election campaign — a lot,
some, not much or no attention so far?
8
q15 If the 2010 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would
you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?
q16 Compared to previous Congressional elections, this year are you more enthusiastic
about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?
Oct06d
More enthusiastic 47 58 47 37 43 47
Less enthusiastic 36 29 36 41 41 30
Same (vol.) 16 10 15 21 14 22
DK/NA 1 3 2 1 2 1
q17 Do you think the representative in Congress from your district has performed his or
her job well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it's time to give a new
person a chance?
q18 Do you think most members of Congress have done a good enough job to deserve re-
election, or do you think it's time to give new people a chance?
Jun10b
Deserve re-election 12 7 22 7 9
Time for new people 78 87 64 84 78
Depends on candidates (vol.) 7 4 9 6 7
DK/NA 3 2 5 3 6
q19 BLANK
q20 Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington —
enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
May10c
Enthusiastic 2 0 5 0 5
Satisfied 22 9 34 21 21
Dissatisfied but not angry 52 57 49 51 48
Angry 22 34 9 26 23
DK/NA 2 0 3 2 2
9
q21 What are you most angry about?
q22 Do you think your own representative in Congress brings in federal funding and
projects that help your area, or not, or don’t you know enough to say?
q23 In general, is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable or not favorable?
q24 In general, is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable or not favorable?
Favorable 45 8 82 35 37
Not favorable 48 89 12 53 54
DK/NA 7 3 6 12 9
q25 BLANK
q26 Do you think of your vote for Congress this fall as a vote for Barack Obama, a vote
against Barack Obama, or don't you think of your vote this fall as being about
Barack Obama?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Vote for Obama 23 2 43 21
Vote against Obama 25 49 7 24
Obama not a factor 45 43 44 48
Won't vote (vol.) 0 0 0 1
Don't know/No answer 7 6 6 6
10
q27 Do you think of your vote for Congress this fall as a vote to help put Republicans in
control of Congress, a vote to help keep Democrats in control of Congress, or will your
vote be about something else?
q44 Some people say the country needs a third political party — a new party to compete
with the Democratic and Republican parties. Do you agree or disagree?
Apr10a
Agree 54 53 43 65 46
Disagree 42 43 53 31 48
DK/NA 4 4 4 4 6
q45 If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer
services, or a bigger government providing more services?
q47 BLANK
q48 Regardless of how you usually vote, who do you think has better ideas for solving the
nation’s problems right now, the Republican party, or the Democratic party?
Jan99d*
Republican party 33 73 5 30 33
Democratic party 40 6 76 32 50
Both (vol.) 3 2 4 3 3
Neither (vol.) 17 13 10 27 7
DK/NA 7 6 5 8 7
*asked among total respondents
q49 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the
Democratic party is more likely to make the right decisions when it comes to dealing with
immigration issues?
Apr08b
Republican party 38 73 12 37 38
Democratic party 40 8 70 36 42
Both (vol.) 2 1 2 2 3
Neither (vol.) 10 9 6 14 6
DK/NA 10 9 10 11 11
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q50 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the
Democratic party is more likely to create new jobs?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind Feb10a
% % % % %
Republican 38 72 12 36 35
Democratic 44 10 79 37 44
Both (vol.) 1 1 2 2 5
Neither (vol.) 8 8 2 14 9
DK/NA 9 9 5 11 7
q51 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the
Democratic party is more likely to reduce the federal budget deficit?
Aug96c*
Republican party 42 71 18 42 50
Democratic party 34 5 63 30 29
Both (vol.) 2 3 1 2 2
Neither (vol.) 14 13 11 18 12
DK/NA 8 8 7 8 7
*asked among total respondents
q52 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the
Democratic party will do more to help the middle class?
Aug88a*^
Republican party 33 69 8 29 28
Democratic party 55 20 89 48 56
Both (vol.) 1 0 1 1 3
Neither (vol.) 8 5 1 17 5
DK/NA 3 6 1 5 8
*asked among total respondents
^Wording change: Regardless of how you are likely to vote…
q53 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the
Democratic party is more likely to help small businesses?
Republican 41 70 17 40
Democratic 49 19 77 45
Both (vol.) 1 1 1 2
Neither (vol.) 4 4 1 8
DK/NA 5 6 4 5
q54 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the
Democratic party is more likely to make the right decisions when it comes to dealing with
terrorism?
Mar09a
Republican 44 84 19 36 40
Democratic 31 5 54 29 40
Both (vol.) 10 3 12 14 6
Neither (vol.) 7 1 5 13 4
DK/NA 8 7 10 8 10
q55-56 BLANK
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
More likely 19 8 33 14
Less likely 22 39 7 22
No difference 57 52 58 60
DK/NA 2 1 2 4
q68 If a candidate for Congress supported the health care reforms enacted this year,
would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, would it make you less likely, or
would a candidate’s support of the health care reforms not make much difference in your
vote?
More likely 28 11 46 24
Less likely 28 52 9 27
No difference 41 34 42 45
DK/NA 3 3 3 4
q69 If the Republicans win control of Congress in November do you think you will
personally be better off financially than you are now, worse off financially, or won’t it
make much difference either way?
q70 If the Democrats continue to control Congress in November do you think you will
personally be better off financially than you are now, worse off financially, or won’t it
make much difference either way?
Better off 16 4 29 12
Worse off 23 55 3 21
No difference 57 39 65 60
DK/NA 4 2 3 7
q71 If the Republicans win control of Congress in November do you think they will try to
return to the economic policies of George W. Bush or won’t they try to return to the
policies of George W. Bush?
13
q72 If the Republicans win control of Congress in November do you think they will try to
repeal the health care law passed this year or won’t they try to repeal the health care
law?
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Will try 72 74 73 68
Won't try 18 14 17 21
DK/NA 10 12 10 11
q73 If the Republicans win control of Congress in November do you think they will try to
make permanent the tax cuts on households earning about $250,000 a year or more or won’t
they try to make those tax cuts permanent?
Will try 60 52 68 58
Won't try 25 31 22 24
DK/NA 15 17 10 18
q75 BLANK
q76 Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, not favorable, undecided, or
haven't you heard enough about the Tea Party movement yet to have an opinion?
q77 BLANK
q78 If a political candidate said they were part of the Tea Party movement would that
make you more likely to support that candidate, less likely, or wouldn’t that make a
difference to you?
More likely 14 31 3 12
Less likely 28 4 49 26
No difference 49 56 42 49
Depends (vol.) 4 5 1 7
DK/NA 5 4 5 6
q79-80 BLANK
q94 Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not?
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind Aug10b
% % % % %
Yes 19 40 4 18 29
No 63 43 78 62 54
DK/NA 18 17 18 20 17
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Sample sizes:
UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Total Respondents 990
Total registered voters 881 777
Effective likely voters 341
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