Professional Documents
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Demand Estimates
Report of January 12, 2018
3.5
3.0
Tons per hectare
2.5
9% above
previous record
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Rosstat Winter wheat Spring wheat
70
2.5
60
Yield (T/Ha)
50 2.0
40 1.5
30
1.0
20
0.5
10
0 0.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Harvested area Production Yield
Cordoba Cordoba
Entre Entre
Rios Rios
San San
Luis Luis
Buenos Buenos
La Pampa La Pampa
Aires Aires
Yields
*Average (2005/06-09/10)
Stations in
“Main Crop Area”
Production
Lower Higher
Intensity
*Source: SAGPyA
Agricultural Weather Assessments
World Agricultural Outlook Board January 12, 2018
Wet Dry
Aug 1 – Sep 30 Nov 1 – Dec 31
2016/17
Average
2017/18
Source: SPAM-IIASA 2005 Soybean Mask & MODIS NDVI 8-day, NASA/GSFC/GIMMS
USDA/FAS/IPAD
NDVI from MODIS imagery indicates initial delay in crop growth compared to last year but subsequent
above-average vegetative health (density and vigor) in soybean-producing areas of Mato Grosso and
Paraná, Brazil. Mato Grosso produces 28% of Brazil’s soybeans and Paraná produces 16%.
3.20
80,000
3.00
Yield (MT/HA)
60,000 2.80
2.60
40,000
2.40
20,000
2.20
0 2.00
2017/18 F
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Area (th HA) Production (th MT) Yield (MT/HA)
Foreign Agricultural Service
Office of Global Analysis
IPA Division January 12, 2018
World Soybean Supply and Use
Change
2016/17 2017/18 from Change from
estimate forecast December 12 2016/17
Million Tons
Beginning stocks 78.0 96.5 -0.1 18.5
Production 351.3 348.6 0.1 -2.7
Total Supply 429.3 445.1 0.0 15.7
Domestic crush 288.3 301.5 -0.1 13.1
Total use 329.8 344.5 -0.2 14.7
Trade 147.3 152.2 -0.3 4.9
Ending Stocks 96.5 98.6 0.2 2.1
Addendum:
Beginning stocks
Argentina plus Brazil 49.9 61.3 -- 11.4
Imports*
China 93.5 97.0 -- 3.5
-- No change
*From all Sources
January 12, 2018
U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand
Change
2016/17 2017/18 from Change from
estimate forecast December 12 2016/17
19%
30
12 January 2018 January 12, 2018
Source: China Fibre Inspection Bureau, December, 2017
6,000
Xinjiang
Outside Xinjiang
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
26.40
Addendum:
China Ending Stocks 48.4 39.8 0.10 -8.7
Prices Dollars/cwt
Steers 121.52 0.09 118.25 1.00 -3.27
Hogs 50.48 0.10 47.75 0.25 -2.73
Cents/lb
Broilers 93.5 0.1 90.5 2.0 -3.0
Turkey 96.1 0.4 91.0 -5.3 -5.1